1,000 Fantasy Facts & Scheme Stats: Get Ready for 2024 Fantasy Football!

What did you do with your summer?

I’ve been fortunate to write for the Fantasy Footballers since 2016 and I got curious one day… how many articles have I cranked out over the years?

Welp, curiosity got the best of me because I somehow stumbled into the most millennial (hey, I was born in 1987) thing possible… I was approaching my 1,000th article.

Yep, over the years I’ve written about everything from Five RBs That Could Lose Targets (hey, it was my first one), to 55 Fantasy Stats… About the #55, 8,000+ words on NFC Offensive Lines (never again!), FSWA’s Article of the Year in 2020, and recently Dynasty WR Thresholds That Matter. On top of that, I’ve been fortunate to write weekly DFS articles, pace of play outlooks, and cash lineup reviews for our DFS Pass. I’m not here to sniff my own farts; rather I want to simply to say, for the past decade, it’s been a journey.

My passion is to make statistics fun, approachable, & conversational. I’ve found that my job (and life in general) presents us with way more avenues to articulate and express data than we realize. Writing (not just about sports) always has been part of me as my dad tells me. I didn’t set out to work full-time in the fantasy football industry. Instead, I was fortunate enough to stumble and bumble my way into listening to a fantasy football podcast at just the right time. The year was 2015 and three dudes from Arizona (recording in a spare bedroom) made me laugh daily and feel like I was at the table with them every time I listened. I had no clue a decade later I’d be right in the thick of things with some of my best friends still laughing my butt off after every show we do.

So… Wait, What is This Article?

I appreciate you giving me some space at the beginning to share (Borgognonis are a deeply expressive bunch) but this article spawned from counting up those articles and realizing, what is the most comprehensive way to get someone prepped for fantasy football in 2024?

1,000 facts and 65,000 words later… consider your Toilet Time maximized until Week 1 kickoff!

I’ve taken ALL the research we’ve done in our show docs this off-season and all the behind-the-scenes spreadsheet information and compiled it all in one place for you. I’ve also bookmarked teams so if you want to skip ahead, feel free to ignore certain teams. This is an extension of what we do in the Ultimate Draft Kit and all the research and energy we pour into it.

A Map To Follow

• How to Utilize Statistics
• League-Wide Trends– QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs
• AFC East– BUF | MIA | NYJ | NE
• AFC North– BAL | CLE | PIT | CIN
• AFC South– HOU | IND | JAX | TEN
• AFC West– KC | LV | DEN | LAC
• NFC East– DAL | PHI | NYG | WAS
• NFC North– DET | GB | MIN | CHI
• NFC South– TB | NO | ATL | CAR
• NFC West– SF | LAR | SEA | ARI

Quick Note on Utilizing Stats

Historical data gives us some boundaries to work with… but it is not perfect. Part of my research process often is finding the historical significance of certain positions. This is one of the areas I feel most informed when researching for the Dynasty podcast, DFS & Betting Podcast, and especially for the Fantasy Footballers main podcast. Heck, I feel like I’m looking something up in my spreadsheets or on certain websites (thanks Stathead!) almost daily to find out how often something occurred in recent history.

You’ll see stats like “x% of QBs have busted over the last decade” and often that data is used to support what will happen in the future just because that player happens to be a QB fitting that same criteria. However, stats like these are orthogonal to someone’s performance in 2024. In other words, it is statistically independent and does not influence their actual performance. There is ZERO correlation between the two points. It is a fun data point and yet it does not carry the weight and significance to a player’s future outcomes like we think it does.

We have “buckets” to group players into because it is helpful for our brains to process. We crave order, meaning, and love connecting the dots, even when it is irresponsible (statistically speaking) to do so.  Dear lord, we love playing connect-the-dots as fake football managers for our fake teams. But every player has hundreds of buckets.

Caleb Williams, for example, fits into a number of “identifying buckets” such as No. 1 overall picks, 1st round QBs, Heisman-winning QBs, and Bears QBs, to name just a few. All of these identifiers tell us who Caleb Williams is and who other QBs are that we can group him with. Helpful? Sure. But NONE of those categories bears any weight or effect on Caleb Williams’ actual performance on an NFL field in 2024. The fact the Bears had crappy QBs over the years does not influence future performance unless you believe the Bears are absolutely cursed. The ghosts of Rex Grossman, Jay Cutler, Caleb Hanie, and Craig Krenzel (just to name a few) and the coaching of guys like Marc Trestman, Matt Nagy, and Dave Wannstedt should not influence your view of Williams.

If I could boil this down to one key point, it is this: there is a huge difference between statistics being descriptive (here’s what happened last year in this situation) and prescriptive (here’s what could happen in 2024). I share that all the time with our podcast listeners and yet, I am just as guilty as anyone trying to say this means that for the future.

In this novella, I try (emphasis on the try) to make an attempt to separate what is descriptive and what is prescriptive. I try to give statistics that make you think, zoom out, recontextualize, re-envision, and paint players in different lights without being overly biased. I mix in a ton of film work as well to at least give a balanced view showing that it isn’t a film versus analytics dichotomy but a holistic approach that we try to bring with the Footballers.

Hope, you enjoy :)

League-Wide Trends

Quarterbacks

1. 2023 NFL QBs had their lowest TD Rate (4.09%) since 2011 despite completing the 2nd most passes in league history. That equated to the lowest fantasy points per pass attempt (1.95) league-wide since 2011. Why is that you ask? I’ll dive more into NFL defenses and how offenses have had to adjust… (Trust me, only 999 more to go.)

2. You probably felt it when facing off against Jalen Hurts or Josh Allen but the rushing fantasy points accrued by QBs have steadily climbed since 2011.

3. To put that number in perspective, consider the rushing TDs scored inside the 5 by QBs last year.

• Jalen Hurts had 13- #1 in the NFL
• Josh Allen had 8- only five other RBs had more
• Russell Wilson, Trevor Lawrence, Jordan Love, and Jake Browning(!) had 3 each- more than Bijan Robinson (sad)
• 18 different QBs had 2+ rushing TDs inside the 5, an NFL record.

4. Tush push, one-cheek sneak, whatever you want to call it… it was dang effective as a QB carry inside the five resulted in a TD 49.6% of the time. Compare that to a 39.8% to non-QBs, and you start to see how NFL offensive coordinators are adjusting their play-calling in close.

5. Over the last 6 years, every year at least 10 QBs (who were the Week 1 starters) were NOT that team’s starter a year later. The average? 11.3 QB situations changing from year-to-year aka 1/3 of the league. Week 1 starter is not the ONLY way to assess this but the amount of fantasy forethought given by managers to Week 1 weighs more than just about any other week.

Week 1 NFL Starting QBs since 2018…

life comes at ya fast sometimes. pic.twitter.com/FNgQSGT3QJ

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— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) April 19, 2024

 

6. I talk all the time about the NFL’s emphasis on utilizing zone defensive coverages. On average, defenses used zone 70% of the time a number that has steadily increased over the last five years per TruMedia: 58.9% < 62.5% < 65.7% < 69.5% < 70.2% last year. Success versus zone coverages (there are many variations to discuss in this article) is a good marker for QB success and answering the simple question if a WR/TE can get open.

7. Here is the top-10 in terms of fantasy points per dropback versus zone coverage in 2023 with a notable exception of Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes (0.34) finished 20th behind some notable names if you want some bar trivia: Desmond Ridder, Derek Carr, and Jake Browning all finished at 0.35.

8. Streaming QBs was important in a year where 67(!) different QBs started an NFL Game. Here is some context for the last couple of years.

• 2018– 55
• 2019– 57
• 2020– 58
• 2021– 63
• 2022– 69

9. On average, 71% of passing TDs occurred in the red zone last year. Sack avoidance inside the red zone is a keystone trait of the true fantasy (and real life) NFL superstar QBs. Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes led the NFL with 8 avoided tackles inside the 20. The QBs with the most red zone TDs in 2024: Dak Prescott (28), Jordan Love (25), Patrick Mahomes (24), Russell Wilson (20), and Josh Allen (20). 

10. With six rookie QBs drafted in the 2024 draft, there is a new influx of talent at the QB position… and perhaps some patience that might need to be renewed for dynasty managers. Over the last decade, 19 rookie QBs had a sub-60 % completion rate in 7+ starts. That includes players like Andrew Luck (54%), Josh Allen (52.8%), Trevor Lawrence (59.6%), and Justin Fields (58.9%) who would become future fantasy stars. On average, if they kept their starting job, their completion rate rose 4 percent in Year 2.

Running Backs

11. I looked back at RBs league-wide since 2011 and few glaring numbers stood out from 2023:

• Fewest Total RB Receptions since 2014- NFL games averaged just 9 total RB receptions (including both sides)
• Lowest Fantasy Points per Reception for RBs since 2011- With defenses playing zone coverage 70% of the time, it led to fewer big receiving plays for RBs.

12. Over the last three years, we’ve seen a resurgence in overall rushing volume for the RB position.

13. Despite this uptick, Derrick Henry‘s 280 rushing attempts were the lowest ever for a league-leader. Heck, Henry’s own teammate Tyjae Spears finished with 100 rushing attempts and actually averaged the same exact snap rate (53%).

14. Despite the attempts, RBs overall were less efficient:

• Lowest Fantasy Points per Rush Attempt for RBs since 2012
• FEWEST Rushing TDs in the last six years

15. We had three rookie RBs finish inside the top-24  in 2023 (Bijan, Gibbs, Achane) continuing a long standing streak of 2+ rookie RBs finishing inside the top-24 since 2012. That streak might be tested in 2024 as the NFL Draft saw just four total RBs selected in the first 100 picks.

16. There is a stark contrast in success rate for RBs when running with 3+ WRs on the field. Spacing things out (in general) is better for NFL teams

• League Average with 3+ WRs on the Field: 2022- 4.91 yards per carry / 2023- 4.63
• League Average with ≤2 WRs on the Field: 2022- 4.04  / 2023- 3.72

Here is the entire league and the percentage of their attempts in those sets:

17. Continuing on league-wide trends, here are the league averages in terms of 

• Under Center– 48.6%
• Pistol– 7.6%
• Shotgun– 43.5%

It is worth noting that the Falcons alone accounted for 21% of the league’s pistol formation runs on the season! The Eagles were the highest in shotgun (74% of their run plays) and the Bills were #1 in under center runs at 58% of their run plays.

18. While some teams (like the Rams) have skewed towards having 3+ WRs on the field for QBs, the emergence of “other” looks on the field is the current “in vogue” trend for team. “Other” for this statistics includes an influx of 2RB sets (21-personnel) thanks to teams like the Dolphins, 49ers, and Ravens as well as teams like the Saints who put Taysom Hill wherever they want on the field. He skews and messes up spreadsheets.

Wide Receivers

19. On the high-end, we saw some monster fantasy seasons in 2023. Looking at every top-12 WR over the last five years (60 WRs), four WRs from 2023 would be that top-12 in fantasy points per game aka the elite of the elite seasons.

20.  The value of a WR target has declined in the last few years. Zone Defenses have changed how offenses adjust their gameplans with more short area targets than ever before. 

21. We are seeing teams use WRs in the running game more frequently as jet-sweeps and running WRs in motion is now the norm.

22. 11% of WR targets were Behind Line of Scrimmage, the highest over the last six years.

23. However, inside the red zone (aka the most valuable targets for fantasy) that coverage changes. The field is more condensed inside the 20 and thus, defenses often use man coverage. Last year, here are the league averages of defenses faced inside the 20: 39% zone,  34% man, and the leftover 27% is inside the 5/goal-line plays. These are  “all out stop the run” or Cover-0 BLITZ type stuff. Pure chaos. 

24. Knowing that defenses have to shift their coverages inside the red zone, how does this inform/change our approach for fantasy? We want pass-catchers who consistently beat BOTH Zone and Man coverages. Teams “design” plays inside the Red Zone knowing defenses shift. These targets inside the red zone are exponentially valuable with a Red Zone target being 1.7 more times valuable than one outside the 20. We fixate/obsess on red zone usage for RBs for fantasy. For pass-catchers, the sets that teams use inside the 20 is key. Most teams change the play calls around the 20-30 yard lines (“high red”), inside the 10 (“low red”), and 2-ish yard line (“goal line). 

25. While the use of 3+ WRs is a preferred strategy for most play-callers inside the 20 when passing, it does not mean it is a more effective look. 74% of red zone dropbacks in 2023 were with 3+ WRs on the field but teams are more efficient inside the red zone with fewer WRs on the field. Inside the 20, QBs threw a TD on almost 27% of their attempts with two or fewer WRs on the field and their completion rate was a full 7 points higher!

For a deeper dive, here is every team in the NFL and how they allocated their dropbacks in 2023.

"This team runs 3WR all the time… who cares?!"

-30.7% of Passing TDs occurred in 2-wide

-31.2% of all red zone passing TDs in 2-wide

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-Check out the Colts: 4th highest dropback % of 3-wide and yet, half their TDs were in 2 wide pic.twitter.com/5LXaYG4X0m

— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) August 21, 2024

Tight Ends

26. Speaking of red zone, tight ends hit rock bottom last year league-wide inside the 20 yard line posting their lowest overall target total, target share, and touchdowns over the last five years.

27. TEs had an interesting year… 2023 gave us the most TE receptions (2,699) in NFL history. Heck, Evan Engram almost set the NFL record! (2 short of Zach Ertz) While 23% of completions went to TEs (highest since 2011), we also saw the fewest Fantasy Points per Reception for TEs since 2011. Sam LaPorta had 10 but no one else had more than 6! Over the last decade, we had 5.1 TEs on average hit 7+ TDs.

28. How much do TE target shares affect the other pass-catching positions? Teams with a high target share % to TEs, generally, have a low target share % to WRs (and vice versa). There is major negative correlation between the two positions with an R-squared (a number telling you how close to 1 or -1 a variable is) approaching -0.73 over the last decade

Using our Target Breakdown Report in the Ultimate Draft Kit, you can see that the top-5 teams in TE target share ranked 32nd (ATL), 30th (ARI), 29th (KC), 26th (MIN), and 23rd (CLE) in WR target share. In other words, it is likely that teams with a high TE target share will stifle any upside you might think for WR2 & WR3 options on that team. The WR1 can still eat but the passing pie is much lower than you’d desire.

29. Over the past five years, we’ve seen a strong correlation to ADP and top-5 finishes. In other words, the dudes who are drafted at the top have typically been awesome bets. According to data pulled by our own Mike Wright, TEs 1-3 (thank you Travis Kelce) have been top-5 TEs 60% of the time, TE 4-6 at 37%, and TEs 7-12 only 3% of the time. However, half of last year’s top-12 went past Round 10.

30. There are numerous stats pointing out that TEs taken in the 1st round simply don’t produce high-end results. It’s more than just performance as it’s a contract issue with teams and I did a bit of deep digging. 70 tight-ends were drafted in Rounds 1-5 from 2014-2020.

• Only 51% finished their rookie contract on the team that drafted them.
• 51% saw a multi-year contract at any point in their career.
• 18.6% had a multi-year contract with the team that drafted them. 
• David Njoku was the only 1st round TE who saw a multi-year contract with the team that drafted him. 

Yikes. Now that has zero barring on someone like Brock Bowers in 2024 and beyond but we do need to question the value of TEs in dynasty leagues. Finding a Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, or Sam LaPorta changes your team but assuming you have one is another thing. 

AFC East

Buffalo Bills

31. Since 2020, the Bills won the AFC East in four straight seasons. Wind back the click to this division in that COVID year: Adam Gase was still coaching the Jets. Aaron Rodgers was league MVP… for the Packers. Tom Brady left the division… and won a Super Bowl in Tampa Bay. Cam Newton was the Patriots starting “QB”. The Dolphins just drafted Tua… but Mike McDaniel was San Fran’s OC.

32. This Bills team once again was defeated by the Chiefs in the AFC Division Round after carrying a half-time and 4th quarter lead. The clock is ticking for the Bills as Josh Allen‘s cap hit goes from $30 million to $60 million next year highlighted by a roster bonus of $25 million coming in March 2025. Keep in mind Buffalo’s defense was the 2nd most expensive unit in the NFL in 2023.

33. The Bills defense had more of a bend/don’t break strategy giving up big plays in both the running game (26th in explosive rush rate allowed) and passing game (24th). Add in the fact they were the 2nd most penalized defense in the NFL and it’s perplexing to see how this team won 11 games. They finished 4th in points per game allowed and 9th in total yards per game allowed. The easiest evidence to point to was ranking #1 in turnover rate thanks to a defensive front that was 8th in pressure rate. 

34. The changes in offensive approach are the big headline. Inside the red zone seemed to be the main stressor and the evidence for Ken Dorsey’s firing after he was let go in Week 11 in favor of Joe Brady. However, when you compare the splits with this team, much of their offensive success remained status quo. The biggest difference: winning games, running the ball, and winning the time of possession battle.

35. They actually turned the ball over more under Brady. In fact, Josh Allen threw an interception in 15 of 17 games but throughout his career, it’s a moot point. Over the last four seasons while finishing as QB1, he’s thrown an INT in 41 of those 66 starts (62% of starts). Yet, he’s still averaged 22.8 fantasy points per game in those INT-filled starts in 4 point leagues, higher than the career fantasy points per game average of Patrick Mahomes.

36. The explosive play department was another area when putting puzzle pieces together from the Dorsey to Brady shift. With more plays run under center, the team shifted it’s approach with just 10 completions of 20+ Air Yards with Brady, compared to 18 under Dorsey. The rushing attack produced clock-milking drives and wins in six of their final seven games.

• Weeks 1-10: 8th in Explosive Pass, 10th in Explosive Rush
• Week 11-18: 20th in Explosive Pass Rate, 7th in Explosive Rush

37. All in all, Brady receives a ton of credit but the game scripts dictated the heavy rushing approach. Buffalo averaged 36.9 rushing plays under Brady (#1 in the NFL) with an NFL-high 208 rush attempts (80%) in that span coming with the game tied or Buffalo leading. Compare that to just 56% in Dorsey-led games and you start to see how this team just manhandled people with their offensive line in the 3rd and 4th quarter of games. The worry is that teams will slowly figure out Brady when given the opportunity to scout his offenses like they did in his short stint in Carolina in 2020.

38. Josh Allen totaled his lowest passing yards per game (253.3) since 2019 but not for lack of effort ranking #1 in air yards and 20+ yard attempts among all QBs. Allen ranked 3rd in aDOT while sitting in shotgun on 55(!) percent of his dropbacks, 7th highest in the NFL. It was a weird situation to sort through: Allen actually attempted 20+ air yard throws way more (12.9% to 13.6%) under Brady but was less successful in terms of yardage and adjusted completion percentage.

39. Down the stretch they used Allen more and more as a runner with new OC Joe Brady. From Week 12 on, he averaged 9.7 rush attempts per game highlighted by eight rushing TDs in final 6 games. He is one of the most utilized red-zone backs in the NFL as his 36 red-zone carries was actually two more than some guy named Christian McCaffrey. 

40. His 15 total rushing TDs tied Jalen Hurts for the most ever MOST by a QB in a season. They collectively broke Cam Newton’s single-season record (14 in 2011) and Allen now sits 2nd all-time among QBs with 53 rushing TDs in just 94 career games. Cam’s record of 75 is within striking distance.

41. It feels like it should be business as usual with Allen, right? The biggest issue is where his WRs are being drafted. We’ve never had THE QB1 in ADP have his WRs drafted outside the top-40 before… ever. You can explain that away by looking at Allen’s rushing production but if there is a warning sign, perhaps the lack of continuity in the passing game (52% of WR targets vacated) is worth exploring.

42. It is also easy to scoff at that last statistic knowing Allen runs through his progressions routinely hitting 3rd reads and guys “trailing behind” for big chunk gains. Allen’s 61% first read rate was bottom-5 in the NFL as a testament to not only his ability to stand strong in the pocket but also willing to shred both man and zone defenses. Play man against Allen? Get ready to be torched on the ground trying to assign a linebacker on him. Zone? He had the 5th highest completion rate (71.6%) and 4th in fantasy points per dropback. There is basically no defense against this man.

43. RB James Cook was a fantasy enigma in 2023. Was he good? Or did he merely compile through not missing a game? His 1,567 yards from scrimmage was 3rd most in the NFL behind only CMC and Breece Hall and he ranked #1 in yards before contact thanks to the Buffalo offensive line.

44. However, Cook also became one of five RBs since 2000 to finish as an RB1 for fantasy with 2 or fewer rushing TDs joining Tiki Barber (2003), Darren Sproles (2011), CMC (2017), and Aaron Jones (2022).

45. Cook had only five total carries inside the five yard line compared to Josh Allen‘s 14 which resulted in eight rushing TDs. Two more TDs and Cook would have jumped up two spots to be RB9 above Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson in terms of fantasy finish. However, if we dive a little deeper, his 18 carries inside the 10 was nothing to shy away from.

James Cook: Too Little? TD Unlucky? Maybe both?

🏈18 carries inside the 10 (more than Etienne, Saquon or Jonathan Taylor)
🏈1 rushing TD

All 18 of those attempts📽️ pic.twitter.com/ajtGkmsexE

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— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) July 19, 2024

46. The shift in offensive approaches from Ken Dorsey to Joe Brady resulted in a massive spike in Cook’s opportunity as he went from 14.8 opportunities per game to 20.4 from Week 11 on. His usage in the passing game especially was unique being targeted on a robust 22.6% of his routes in that span. We also know vacated targets often benefit the RB position so combining his receiving floor with some potential TD increase, Cook seems like a safe bet for top-15 status with a ceiling to finish as a top-10 guy.

47. The Bills’ re-upped Ty Johnson and drafted old man Ray Davis in the 4th round of the NFL Draft.  As fellow Ballers writer Julia Papworth stated in Davis’ Rookie Profile, he essentially is sponsored by AARP as the first player in Division I to run for over 900 yards at three different schools. Since 2007, there have only been 19 RBs who were drafted at 24 or older and the best of the best (Andre Ellington and James Starks) never really had staying power.  

48. If there is a template for Davis to contribute in Year 1, don’t forget how much this team depended on another much more elder statesman: the departed Latavius Murray. Don’t worry: he’s still alive, just old (34). Using our Red Zone Report in the Ultimate Draft Kit, you can see his usage inside the 5-zone compared to James Cook.

However, we too often typecast players as “oh, he’s the goal-line back” because we need to make sense in our brains of where players fit. OC Joe Brady recently shared his thoughts on short-yardage situations and his confidence in James Cook: “”I think from a running back, as long as they’re able to drive their legs and play physical, it doesn’t matter the size of the back. And, you know, I feel confident with Jimbo (James Cook) all the way down that it’s third and one.”

49. Who is this team’s WR1? That is one of the biggest conversations for fantasy with Stefon Diggs‘ departure. According to our Team Opportunity report, 52% of the WR targets are gone. If counting stats are your thing, hold your breath on this next one. Since 2018, the 284 vacated targets by Bills WRs is the MOST associated with any QB drafted in the top-5 at the position. In other words, Josh Allen is in uncharted territory.

50. The Buffalo WRs saw a dramatic shift once Joe Brady took over and fantasy managers felt that in the core of the being. Buffalo went from the 8th most receiving fantasy points per game in the NFL to 23rd over those final six games. While a massive amount of vacated targets is a signal towards opportunity, it also presents itself as a less-than-stellar fantasy opportunity if the offense functions like it did under Joe Brady ranking 31st in pass rate.

51. After trading back into the 2nd round, the Bills selected Keon Coleman 33rd overall and immediately he finds himself in a situation lush with opportunity. Coleman’s college TPRR (23%) and zone YPRR (1.65) were both dreadfully low for a player with this type of draft capital. In fact, the only WR drafted in the first two rounds with a lower final college season YPRR versus zone coverage was… pause… Jalen Reagor. Since 2018, the average for WRs drafted in Rounds 1-3 was 2.94 YPRR.

52. . The Bills have publicly stated how much they value “in-game” speed and explosiveness over 40-times. Coleman‘s 4.61 time is in the 16th percentile but according to PFF’s game speed metric, he was in the 93 percentile as evidenced in his gauntlet drill at the combine. I highly recommend this Matt Harmon video where he shows where Coleman could succeed in the NFL as a big slot WR. If you watch his game film, you see glimpses of Coleman being a terror in the open field on slants and crossers. He has the body to be a disrupter in YAC situations although GM Brandon Beane made it clear they view him as a classic X receiver.

53. What can we expect in Year 1 from Coleman? His draft price allows you to swing for the fences in hopes he combines Gabe Davis‘ big plays with Diggs’ middle-of-the-field presence. Josh Allen ranked 2nd in fantasy points per dropback against 2-high “open” safety looks so it’s bing-bang-boom, right? Considering some of the public comments by Bills management this summer, it seems he might be brought along a bit more slowly out the gate. He also routinely struggled with press coverage (despite his NFL-ready body) in college making that eventually move to big slot somewhat tempting. Dalton Kincaid‘s presence is the biggest detriment to Coleman seeing “lay-up throws” and finishing with more what we have him projected in the UDK: 63 receptions.

54. Curtis Samuel quietly earned 90+ targets in 4 of the last 5 years and received a 3-year, $24 million deal with $15 million guaranteed. He will turn 28 years old but after making $40+ million in his career and on his third contract, you gotta be proud of the one we dub “Dirty Curtis” on the DFS & Betting Podcast. Unashamedly, he was my “My Guy” way back in 2020… Never forget!

55. While Samuel had his moments last year (remember that 9-for-100 game on Thanksgiving versus Dallas?), his familiarity with Joe Brady going back to their Carolina days is what is most intriguing. Could he finish as this team’s WR1 in terms of targets? Sure. However, the type of targets Samuel saw the last two seasons in Washington give some pause with aDOTs of 6.9 and 7.1 compared to 14.8 way back in 2019 with Brady. 69% of his targets were under 10 yards, the 9th most among WRs with 60+ targets last year. 

56. We might see some jet sweeps and carries out of the backfield for Samuel as the former college RB still remains a weapon in motion. The Commanders (29th) and Bills (27th) ranked dreadfully low in pre-snap motion rates but when Buffalo did use both pre-snap motion AND play-action last year, they killed it. They averaged 10.3 yards per pass attempt compared to just 6.7 without either. He profiles as a value in PPR leagues with a near every-down role.

57. 3rd year WR Khalil Shakir is a fun player to root for and there are a number of statistics you can point to to prop him up including leading all NFL receivers in yards per target (13.6) and ranking #1 among the Bills in Yards per Route Run with 3+ WRs on the field. 

58. While you might have to ignore the smaller sample sizes, 91% of his targets were in the slot (also #1 in the NFL) and Buffalo as a team ranked 2nd in terms of team targets to go to the slot (37.5%) trailing only the Jaguars (37.6%). This also led to him having the highest catchable target rate (87%) of any WR in football with a minimum of 20 targets.

59. However, we have to balance out the excitement with a dose of reality: Shakir ran FIVE total routes with 2 WRs on the field last year. When Joe Brady took over, Shakir’s TPRR dropped from 18% from Weeks 1-10 to just 13%. Will he see the field enough to make a dent for fantasy? If Dalton Kincaid is manning the slot (with Dawson Knox as a traditional in-line TE), will Shakir face competition for snaps if they run more 12-personnel or with the Swiss Army knife Samuel also apt in the slot?

60. You can’t talk about the Bills WR room without mentioning the assortment of characters and cardio kings they have on this squad: Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mack Hollins, and Chase Claypool (whoops, he’s gone). MVS was targeted on (hold on… I have to double check to see if this is real… wow…) NINE percent of his routes last year. NINE! That ranked 113th out of 113 qualified WRs with a minimum of 30 targets. The poor dude ran as many routes (446) as Brandon Aiyuk last year yet caught 54 fewer balls. RIP.

61. Dalton Kincaid quietly totaled the 4th most receptions EVER (73) for a Rookie TE but Sam LaPorta‘s otherwordly rookie season casted such a large shadow that Kincaid’s accomplishments might’ve been forgotten. He had seven top-12 finishes as many as Jake Ferguson or Trey McBride.

62. When Dawson Knox was out, Kincaid had a hot streak averaging 7.8 targets, 64 receiving yards per game and a 24.5% TPRR. However, when Joe Brady took over, his TPRR dropped to 20.6% from Week 12 on. 

63. What can we expect in 2024 for Kincaid? Part of what made him such a valuable part of this offense was how he was utilized. His success rate (measures how effective a receiver was based on downs and yardage) ranks 9th best ever for a rookie TE. In other words, expect him to be the chain mover for this team

64. It seemed like they wanted to use more 12-personnel last year but Dawson Knox‘s injury changed plans in the middle of the season. With Ken Dorsey as OC, the team averaged just 3.6 yards per carry versus 5.6 with only one TE on the field. Knox carries the 13th highest TE cap hit in 2024 and the 8th highest in 2025.

65. Knox remains a vital part of this team’s identity but for fantasy, he is a TD-or-bust option averaging just 3.6 fantasy points per game in games without a TD in his career. For those counting at home, he scored in just 20 of 69 career games (28.9%).

Miami Dolphins

66. How did you remember the 2023 Miami season? Was it that Week 3 70-point shellacking of Denver? Was it Mike McDaniels post-game press conferences? Was it somehow losing in dramatic fashion against a Will Levis-led team on a Monday night? The offense ranked first in total yards, passing yards, rushing TDs, and yards per carry becoming the first offense in NFL history to accomplish that 4-pack of statistical dominance. Tell your grandkids about that one year Miami just dominated for fantasy!

67. Did they luck out with an easy schedule? Miami played just six games versus teams with a winning record going 1-5. The lone win? Week 16 vs DAL.

68. The schematics of this team are something to behold. They ranked #1 in pre-snap motion with a whopping 83% of their plays involving somebody scooting around on your screen before Tua said “Hike!”.

69. The Dolphins defense had the 4th highest pressure rate and 3rd most sacks but 2024 will be a different crew. Their front was decimated with injuries last year with Jaelan Phillips (Achilles) and Bradley Chubb (ACL) both having up in the air timelines. After a career-high nine sacks last year, DL Christian Wilkins moved on to Las Vegas and some of the franchise mainstays (LBs Andrew Van Ginkel and Jerome Baker & CB Xavien Howard) are no longer on the team. Replacements have been brought in for the pass rush (1st round pick Chop Robinson), linebackers (Jordyn Brooks), and secondary (CB Kendall Fuller & Safety Jordan Poyer) but expecting the same results might be wishful thinking.

70. Miami’s secondary is still their strength so expect them to repeat the same heavy Cover 6 looks they had last year with the highest rate (25.1%) in the NFL. The league average was 9.7% for context.

71. Tua Tagovailoa looked like MVP candidate through 2 months of the season including three MONSTER games (@ LAC, DEN, and CAR) in the 1st six weeks . It was the 6th most passing yards (1,876) of any QB through six games since 2020 and his 9.5 yards per attempt ranked #1. He got off to a similar hot start in 2022 as his 9.0 yards per attempt ranks 3rd on that list.

72. Whenever teams tried to thrust man coverage on the Dolphins in 2023, they were playing with fire as Tua tied Brock Purdy for the highest fantasy points per dropback (0.78) versus man coverage and Tyreek broke any chart a SpreadSheet bro might’ve prepared with 4.31 yards per route run versus man. For some reason, opposing defenses threw Cover 2 man at Miami at the highest rate in the NFL while running Cover 3 looks at the 6th lowest rate.

73. One of the keys to the Mike McDaniel offensive philosophy and Tua’s success in 2023 was getting the ball out of hands quickly. He was pressured on just 24.3% of his dropbacks (the lowest in the NFL) and the 3rd lowest over the last three years behind only 2021 Tom Brady and 2022 Tom Brady.

74. However, if you invested in Tua, he was awful in the fantasy playoffs failing to hit 16 fantasy points at any point from Weeks 14-18. Is it the weather changing? Was it the competition? Nevertheless, he was an “F” in our consistency score taking a rolling 17 game average of his fantasy production. Part of his disappointment last year was the lack of red zone passing TDs as Rich Hribar mentioned.

75. With a generous schedule (JAX, BUF, @ SEA, TEN) to open the season, completing a Miami stack in your draft is something you should definitely consider if you draft Tyreek or Waddle. While we don’t use last year’s data as a copy and paste, it is worth mentioning Tua‘s correlation coefficient with Tyreek over the last 18 games: 0.79. That is as good as it gets while Waddle’s (0.09) over his 15 games is a bit disappointing.

76. Miami was the leader in 21-personnel on 1st down lining up with two RBs 48% of the time, a two percent increase from 2022’s team.  That rate is the 3rd highest of any team since 2016 bested only by the 2020 Cam Newton-led Patriots and the 2018 49ers. The run game coordinator of that 4-12 San Francisco team? Mike McDaniel.

77. Miami’s rushing attack had a clear plan: get to the outside! 60% of their rush attempts went to the edge; for context, the league average in 2023 was 36%. Their run gap numbers for guard (18%) and tackle (20%) looks like there is a glitch in the system.

78. Let’s put the Miami rushing attack in context. The Miami RBs ranked #1 (De’Von Achane– 1.28) and #2 (Raheem Mostert– 1.07) in fantasy points per opportunity at the RB position.

79. Since 2007, here are the NFL backfields that averaged 30+ fantasy points per game (half-point scoring) over the course of the season. Miami’s RBs ranked 5th in points per game and their 27 total rushing TDs are the 2nd most over the last 15 years.

80. Mostert’s 21 total TDs were two more than his career total coming into this season. He actually lowered his career yards per carry from 5.4 to 5.2 despite the insane year thanks to the 2nd most carries inside the five yard line.

81. Mostert converted those 20 carries inside the 5 into 12 rush TDs. He tied Gus Edwards for 2nd most 5-zone TDs behind only Jalen Hurts‘ pushed tush. In Mostert’s only three games without a TD, he scored 4, 5.6, and 9.8 fantasy points. The age of Mostert seems to be worrying drafters in 2024. I looked at every RB to score 15+ total TDs since 2011 and their ADP the following year.

82. Achane was an efficiency monster leading all RBs in yards per touch (7.7) and became one of seven rookie RBs since 2014 with 5+ games with 20+ fantasy points.

83. Let this next stat put his freakish breakaway speed into clearer view: Achane had 103 total carries in his rookie season. He now has as many total runs of 40+ yards as Reggie Bush had… in his entire 10-year NFL career. Wowzers.

84. Last year, about a third of Achane‘s total snaps were NOT in the backfield. He lined up in the slot on 35% of his pass plays, the highest among all RBs in the NFL. What did he do as a receiver? He was targeted on 24% of his routes and averaged 9.5 YAC/ reception. But more importantly,  Mike McDaniel knows how to utilize him and design plays for him. He was the “1st Read” on 67% of his targets, #1 among all RBs.

85. The question is how many opportunities will Achane see? He averaged 15.1 in his nine full, healthy games last year. Since 2018, the average for a top-12 fantasy RB is 19.9 opportunities per game and 85% of RB1s in that span sat at 16.5+ per game. His combination of Year 2 + Age 22/23 season is a perfect mix for a massive breakout.

86. 4th round rookie RB Jaylen Wright showed his explosive play making ability with 10 carries for 55 (!!) yards and a TD in Week 1 of the pre-season. This is a dude who ran 4.38 at the NFL Combine who the Dolphins traded up to get him in the 4th round giving up a 2025 3rd to get him. Mike McDaniel was quoted recently: “Who says we have to stop at 2 RBs? Maybe we can just have 4. I think you have to let the players determine who gets the ball and how frequently and how much they’re in the game.”

87. It is also worth monitoring the health of this offensive line. They had the 4th most “games lost” due to injury in 2023 and starting guard Robert Hunt took a fat paycheck to head to Carolina. Miami led the NFL in both yards after contact per attempt (3.02) and yards before contact per attempt (1.88) narrowly outpacing Detroit (1.87). Some of those numbers can be skewed thanks to long runs (thanks Achane!) but the offensive line’s ability to execute McDaniels run scheme is unparalleled.

88. Pass blocking? That is another story. Miami ranked 31st in ESPN’s pass block win rate while Tua’s quick passing prowess does mask some of their inefficiencies. He was pressured on just 24.9% of his dropbacks, the lowest rate in the entire league. The smartest OCs (McDaniel is near the top) understand the importance of sack avoidance and as Warren Sharp detailed, avoiding a sack more than “triples the % of drives that end in a TD“.

89. This just in: Tyreek Hill is not human. His 35.5% TPRR felt like cheating if you had him in fantasy.  Despite checking in 44th among all WRs in routes run, he tied Amon-Ra St. Brown for 2nd with 119 receptions albeit on 105 fewer routes tun. He had nine games of 20+ fantasy points; since 2017, only 2021 Cooper Kupp had more.

90. He essentially breaks all of our charts when you start to convey how dominant he was against both man (4.31 YPRR) and zone (3.79) coverages.

91. In fact, both Miami WRs crushed against zone coverage. Their 1,734 combined receiving yards against zone was more than the combined total output of the Atlanta Falcons WRs… against both man and zone coverages. Woof.

92. Ok, let’s go for overkill here. 70% of Tyreek’s receptions went for a 1st down. 21 of his receptions went for 20+ Air Yards, more than any year he had with Patrick Mahomes.

93. Need a template to follow for slowing Miami down? AFC powers Kansas City and Baltimore made Miami look rather pedestrian as the Dolphins scored just 14, 19, and 7 points including that snow-covered wild-card round loss. If you just look at Weeks 9 (@ KC) and 17 (@ BAL), those two gambled running out more man-to-man looks with CBs L’Jairus Sneed and a Ravens combination of Ronald Darby and Brandon Stephens running Cover 1 at much higher rates than the league-low 12% Miami was used to. Hill finished as WR29 and WR30 in those two games respectively.

94. Going a little deeper, Waddle and Tyreek have played 31 games together in two years. Tyreek has been a top-10 WR in HALF of those games… 16 of 31. That is just plain wild. Waddle also finished as a top-12 in five of those Tyreek top-10 games giving you the chance for them to spike together.

95. However, Waddle was also WR30 or worse in 50% of Tyreek’s top-10 games. When Tyreek had a bad game for his standards (outside the top-24),  Waddle hasn’t been great either. Waddle’s fantasy finishes in those subpar Tyreek games: WR31, 27, 40, 41, 75, 25, 50, 22, and 41.

96. Perhaps this chart will do Jaylen Waddle enthusiasts a bit of a reality check. He is not nearly as consistent as you want him to be as we detailed in the WR Truth episode in early January.

97. Does Odell Beckham Jr. have anything left in the tank? His route participation (91%) might claim he was out on the field. His 21% TPRR was fine for someone at this stage in his career but it was the lack of “layup targets” that was most concerning. 57% of his targets were 10+ yards downfield and yet he caught just 46% of those targets. He was an all-or-nothing desperation play and a far cry from the dominator he once was on the Giants. The name value and team fit in Miami will garner someone in your league to draft him thinking 2015’s fantasy points will somehow count for 2024. (Spoiler: they don’t.)

98. Rookie Malik Washington was a late Day 3 pick but his production at Virginia was off the charts. He was one of five WRs in this class to hit 3+ YPRR versus both man (3.13) and zone (3.39), perfectly fitting what Mike McDaniel values in wideouts. There also were videos of McDaniel “bugging their GM” constantly to select Washington in the later rounds of the draft. He is a name to monitor early in the season to see if he eventually gets on the field in 3WR looks.

99. The TE position hasn’t exactly been a focus for McDaniel as Durham Smythe and company saw an NFL-low 9% target share and just 10% of the team’s completions. For context, over the last decade, only four other teams dipped below 10 percent in target share: 2020 Patriots, 2020 Panthers, and those Ryan Fitzpatrick-led Jets of 2016 & 2015.

100. Jonnu Smith was signed as a “motion specialist” ranking 10th among all TEs in 2023 in terms of receiving yards on plays with pre-snap motion. In fact, he was targeted on 24% of his routes involving motion, the same % as Evan Engram and, (sorry Falcons fans), Kyle Pitts.

101. 66% of Smith’s receiving yardage in his career occured after the catch, a valuable trait for a player routinely given opportunities to create on misdirection screens. He average 6.83 YAC/rec, the 4th highest rate among all TEs last year. While you shouldn’t expect consistent fantasy output, he also received the occasional jet sweep during his Tennessee and New England days. 

New York Jets

102. This was a weird team that fought hard for Robert Saleh to get to seven wins. Four of those wins were against cupcake QBs (Tommy DeVito, Sam howell, Bailey Zappe & Russell Wilson) while three were against legit performers: Josh Allen in Week 1, Jalen Hurts in Week 6, and C.J. Stroud in Week 14. All three of those were at home but we know it was the defense that willed this team to those victories. They ranked 3rd in yards allowed, 2nd in 1st downs allowed, 2nd in yards per play, and 2nd in passing yards per game.

103. In the second half of games, the Jets tried their darnedest to make something happen. They had the highest second half pass rate (69.9%) but it equated to just 7.5 points per half, 30th in the NFL. Part of their giddy-up strategy was never having possession of the ball in 1st halves ranking 29th in 1st half possession rate and 29th in 1st half points.

104. Where do we start? Four snaps of Aaron Rodgers seems like a distant memory at this point as the other 1097 offensive snaps felt like an onslaught of ineptitude and pain Jets fans were victim to. They ranked 30th in turnovers and dead last in 1st downs gained.

105. Here’s the one that is just gut-wrenching to hear: they had 11(!) total passing TDs. Eleven! Seven of those 10 came inside the 10-yard line while Garrett Wilson‘s 68-yard TD reception against the Cowboys in Week 2 felt like a sick, twisted joke that early in the year. Randall Cobb‘s 15 yard TD reception against the Texans would be the next TD pass in the season to go outside the 10 yard. That was in Week 14. Ouch.

106. The J-E-T-S ranked L-A-S-T in plays inside the five yard line in 2023. They had just 15 total rushing plays inside the 10, the fewest in the NFL. For context, the league average was 39.

107. This offensive line was decimated with injuries in 2023 ending up with the 2nd most “games lost” in the NFL. Guard Alijah Vera-Tucker missed the entire season and it was clear the group became a turnstile all season long. Zach Wilson was pressured on 43% of his dropbacks, the 4th highest rate in the NFL. His stat line on those 189 dropbacks: zero passing TDs and a 4.9 yard per pass attempt average.

108. Wilson‘s career will forever be mired by being picked 2nd overall, his baby face, and his off-the-field love affairs. In 33 career starts, he never had a 3-TD game. Among 117 QBs to start 30+ games since 2000, he has the 3rd highest sack rate and 2nd lowest pass success rate. However, of his 12 career wins, he does have some under his belt that he can share with his friends and family: Josh Allen (twice), Jalen Hurts, C.J. Stroud, and Aaron Rodgers.

109. Here are some important dates to remind yourself how long it’s been since we’ve seen elite Rodgers for fantasy.

• Last 300 yard game by Rodgers- 12/21/2021
• Last 3 TD game- 11/06/2022
• Last time QB1 overall on a week- 10/20/2019

The last time we saw Aaron Rodgers play in 2022, he set career worst marks in:

* Fantasy PPG (14.1)
* YPA (6.8)
* TD rate (4.8%)
* QBR (91.1)
* INTs (12)

— Matthew Betz (@TheFantasyPT) May 20, 2024

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110. Rodgers is himself an outlier so any age 40+ statistic you find in comparison likely won’t do him justice. But hey, this is a jam-packed article of every stat I went through this off-season so I did the mental exercise asking the question: how many ago 40+ QBs have actually been good not named Tom Brady?

111. Their 2024 schedule could be the NFL allowing a mulligan for the Rodgers injury. The Jets are currently favored in 14 of their 17 games and Warren Sharp projects them to have the 4th easiest strength of schedule.

112. It’s almost illegal to categorize Breece Hall only as a RB in this article. His 90 targets led all RBs and he posted WR1-type numbers with a 26.8% TPRR and 1.76 YPRR, ahead of teammate Garrett Wilson‘s numbers: 24%, 1.55. In fact, Hall ranks #1 among all RBs in yards per route run over the last two seasons.

113. Perhaps this stat will put his receiving work more in perspective: a whopping 48.3% of Hall‘s production came via the air. That is the highest of any top-5 RB over the last five years. The checkdown rate of Jets QBs was 14.6%, bested only by the Russell Wilson-led Broncos.

114. There was a giant split in Hall‘s production as he averaged over 20 fantasy points per game against bottom-16 defenses versus only 11 against top-16 squads. This team made it’s preferences clear as the Jets ran the ball 56 % of the time when playing with a lead, the 3rd highest rate in the NFL.

115. Is Breece in store for a historic season? In order to truly vault into all-time status, Hall would need to hit 23+ PPR points per game and the receiving work is certainly a strong indicator that average is in the range of outcomes. Per Pat Kerrane’s historical research, we’ve had just one RB hit that mark without 4+ receptions per game. Slam dunk? Well, those same RBs had at least 1.5 opportunities inside the 10 yard line as well. That will be the biggest leap for Hall as he had just ten all year long (0.6 per game) including a stretch of 8(!) games after their Week 7 bye where he saw as many 10-zone opportunities as the dude in charge of your HOA. (Zero… the HOA guy and Breece both had zero.)

116. You might’ve deleted this from your memory but Dalvin Cook put on a New York Jets jersey last year. He vacates 67 carries and 20 targets of pure diaper gravy for statistical purposes. Sorry that might be a bit harsh but among RBs with 80+ touches last year, he had the fewest total yards from scrimmage. In Week 1, he saw 50% of the snaps as it was being presented that Breece Hall would slowly be worked in. Cook never saw double-digit carries again averaging a robust 3.2 yards per carry on the season before joining Baltimore’s roster late.

117. It’s a shame for a player who was a fantasy force in Minnesota including an insane 2020 season where he averaged 22.6 fantasy points per game thanks to 17 total TDs and 1900+ total yards. He was only the RB3 that season; for context, that points per game average was higher than what CMC averaged as the RB1 in 2023. So long Dalvin!

118. Rookie Braelon Allen will be 1st RB to play his entire Year 1 season before turning 21. Over the last 30 years, only two RBs to ever played a down at this young age per Pro Football Reference’s Stathead. Rashaan Salaam won the 1994 Heisman at Colorado and the Bears selected him in the 1st round, 21st overall. He played his first four games before turning 21. Dion Lewis (yes that Dion Lewis) was drafted in the 5th round, 149th overall by the Eagles in 2011. He played mostly played special teams and his first four games before turning 21. That’s it. Allen is a unicorn and if you believe RB unicorns exist, he’s the one to swing away with as an insurance back at the end of your bench.

119. It will be interesting to see how the WRs are deployed as Rodgers teams have averaged 3+ WRs on the field 66% of the time in his career while Nathaniel Hackett and his QBs struggled there mightily last year. They ranked dead last at yards per pass attempt (4.9), completion rate over expectation, and QB rating.

120. Part of the issue was the lack of depth on this roster among their pass-catchers. The Jets finished with ONE receiving TD in the slot despite the fact they ran the 12th most slot routes in the NFL. Heck, the ghost of Randall Cobb ran 150+ routes for this team catching a whopping five passes.

121. Can Garrett Wilson please get some help? He has the most targets (310) through two years in NFL history but the type of targets have been… well, less than stellar. Among 72 WRs with 200+ targets through two years, he ranks 66th in yards per target at 6.8.

122. Since 2020, Wilson ranks dead last in fantasy points per target (1.38) as the 54th of 54 qualifying WRs. Yes, I know it’s painful when you see names like Robbie Chosen, Chase Claypool, and Allen Robinson ahead of him. Volume? Check. Getting open? Check. Quality of targets? Meh. Competent offense? Nope.

123. As Marvin Elequin pointed out, Wilson finished nearly 3.6 points per game below  expectation despite his 30% target share. He has seven total receiving TDs through two years. Based on his yardage expectation alone, he should have another 4-5 TDs.

124. After signing veteran Mike Williams (aka Big Mike Willy) to a one-year deal worth up to $15 million, can this combo work? The 29-year-old Williams profiles as a true X receiver (apologies to Allen Lazard)  and as CBS’ Jacob Gibbs detailed, Wilson has been much better as a Z/slot WR through two years averaging 1.95 YPRR as opposed to 1.52 as the X.

125. Wilson is being drafted at the 1/2 turn yet again this year presenting a similar opportunity cost decision as 2023. While 4 snaps of Aaron Rodgers is hopefully not once again in the range of outcomes, he is currently the only WR over the last decade to remain a 1st round player in ADP a year after finishing outside the top-30 the previous year. I looked at every player drafted since 2011 and no other WR (who played a full season the previous year) followed up the next year with first round status. Obviously, Wilson’s reasonings is an anomaly but it is painstaking to seem him in the same exact spot as last year.

126. Williams has a couple of big TD seasons (10 in 2018, 9 in 2021) on his resumé. I went back and looked at Rodgers’ history in Green Bay finding that he supplied eight different WRs with 8+ TD seasons when they were 28 or older.

127. After 88 career games, it’s clear what Big Mike excels at: all-or-nothing balls. He ranks 2nd among active players in yards per reception (15.8). The veteran WR turns 30 years old this season and is coming off a torn ACL while changing teams for the first time in his career. We took the under on his season-long receiving line in late July knowing there is a lot of fragility in the projections for a player like Big Mike at this stage of his career.

128. Their WR2 (Allen Lazard) finished the season with a yards per route run number (0.68) that should make you actively vomit. Among 112 WRs and TEs with 45+ targets last year, he ranked 112th in YPRR. Yep, add in the TEs and he was even worse. In fact, the only other WRs to put up a worse number over the last five years: 2022 A.J. Green (0.65), 2021 Jalen Reagor (0.67), and 2019 ‘s Geronimo Allison (0.68) & Jarius Wright (0.58). Any chance the Jets can get back that $22 million guaranteed they gave him?

129. Malachi Corley, the self-proclaimed “YAC King”, was a fun prospect to scout before the NFL draft. He went to Western Kentucky as a lightly recruited former CB (his high school team had 19 total kids on it!) and transformed into a weapon with the ball in his hands. In 2022, he had the 2nd most forced missed tackles by a WR since 2014 according to PFF and averaged 9.2 YAC per reception over the last two years. 76% of his receptions last year were within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage so a full route tree is the narrative you’ll hear parroted again and again.

130. Corley drew some Deebo Samuel comparisons but keep in mind Deebo was drafted early in Round 2 (36th overall) and was a well-rounded prospect especially against zone coverage (3.30 YPRR). Corley’s TPRR (32.5%) looks impressive but his Zone YPRR (2.51) ranks below the 40th percentile of Round 1-3 WRs since 2019. Remember, short yardage, slot targets are nice in PPR but the Laviska Shenaults and Rondale Moore‘s of the world peter out for fantasy more times than not.

131. Xavier Gipson saw 61% of his targets in the slot becoming one of 31 rookie WRs over the last decade to see 30+ targets with 50+ percent in the slot. He is most remembered for that Week 1 walk-off punt return TD against the Bills. He gained +55 yards over expectation on that play (sorry the Footballers 55 thing always stands out) and is apparently giving Corley a run for the starting WR3/slot role. Monitor the competition as roughly 33% of Jets targets went to the slot (16th in the NFL) despite ranking 30th in Yards per Route Run (0.98) in the slot as a team.

132. Don’t hate on Tyler Conklin. He knows exactly who he is and how many targets he should receive: 87. Yep, CONK CONK has received exactly 87 targets each of the last three years. I scoured our UDK projections and shame on Andy (96), Jason (90), and Mike (86… so close). Maybe I should go in there and make a manual adjustment?

133. Despite having the 11th most receptions among TEs (only four fewer than George Kittle), Conklin scored as many receiving TDs as our producer Owl Borland. (That’s zero for those counting at home!) Over the last 35 years, only two TEs have caught 60+ passes and goose egged in the TD department on a season: Cole Kmet (2021) and Conklin’s 2023 campaign.

New England Patriots

134. It is a new era in New England as the Patriots have a new head coach for the first time since 2000. What were you doing 24 years ago? New HC Jerod Mayo won Super Bowl XLIX as an All-Pro LB under Bill Belichick and now takes hold of a team coming off their worst season in over 30 years. Patriots fans saw the ineptitude on offense but this team also lost the 2nd most games due to injury in the NFL. Their defensive line and secondary were ravaged with injuries all year long.

135. This offense needed a major overhaul after ranking 31st in points scored, 30th in total yards and dead last in plays per drive and  time of possession. New England could not sustain drives and the red zone opportunities were few and far between. Despite only 13(!) pass attempts on the season inside the 10, six of those attempts ended in TDs! For context, 13 passing attempts inside the 10 is the lowest amount of any team since 2018 when rookie Josh Allen (+ Matt Barkley and the infamous Nathan Peterman) totaled 12.

136. Despite it’s injuries, Mayo’s defense shut down the run last year rankings #2 in EPA per rush attempt allowed, #2 in yards per carry allowed (3.4), and #1 in explosive rush rate. If you throw out Breece Hall‘s Week 18 game where the Jets fed him the rock 37(!) times for 178 yards on the ground, they look even more imposing. 

137. The Patriots play a special brand of defense ranking #1 in man coverage rate (39.8%), but 30th in turnovers per drive. The aggressiveness wasn’t so much geared towards creating pressure (23rd in blitz rate) or big plays but routinely stopping drives with the 5th fewest first downs allowed. From Week 10 on, the Patriots allowed 15.6 1st downs per game, fewest in the NFL. In fact, they were the only team over the back-half stretch to not allow a single opponent to hit 20 1st downs in a game. For context, NFL offenses averaged 19.3 per game in 2023, down from 19.7 the previous year. However, in Week 1 of preseason, the Patriots had the highest blitz rate in the league (44.4%) and shipped out EDGE Matthew Judon to the Falcons.

138. Alex Van Pelt was the Browns OC for the last four seasons and he stated in press conferences that he plans to run a similar run-heavy scheme in New England. The issue is installing those concepts with a rookie QB, a less-than-stellar group of receivers, and an offensive line with massive question marks. OLine coach Scott Peters in his first season with the team and LT Chukwuma Okorafor is sliding over to the all-important left side. Through six seasons, he has played exactly two more snaps than you at left tackle in the NFL. 

139. Van Pelt’s Browns were among the highest in play-action passing rate including Joe Flacco (32.9%) and Deshaun Watson (26.5%) ranking in the top 12 among QBs with 200+ dropbacks in 2023. New England shied away from it last year (29th) but this is part of the appeal with 3rd overall pick Drake Maye. He utilized it on 26% of his dropbacks (only 106th out of 162 QBs) but his mobility and ability to throw off-platform makes his ceiling intriguing. In 2022, 12 of his passing TDs were on play-action and his 80.8 adjusted completion rate in 2023 was a massive improvement from the previous year.

140. Talk about a fun college tape… Maye was a whirlwind at North Carolina often giving the “don’t do it! don’t do it! Oh, that was cool!” response. His counting stats might look different in 2023 than 2022 but keep in mind he learned a new system as the OC changed from Phil Longo to Chip Lindsey. He led all FBS QBs in PFF grade on throws between the hashes (a good marker for reading NFL defenses) and he was willing to scramble (5.6% of his non-pressured dropbacks) to the point where you can foresee extending plays and adding goal-line runs as part of his future.

141. There is a lot of discussion of when a rookie QB should start. We have everyone from “you drafted them so start them Day 1” to shining examples of patience with Patrick Mahomes (1 start) and Jordan Love (none) I highly recommend Sumer Sports “Should Rookie QBs Sit in Year One?” if you want a deeper dive on the subject. In my research, I found that gaining at least 10 starts is a massive bar for rookie QBs.

🎵 When it's Gonna Be (Drake) Maye? What week does he take over?

Since 2012, every 1st round rookie QB (except Jordan Love) had at least ONE start in Year 1 & 79% started by Week 5. pic.twitter.com/73B4khOrde

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— Fantasy Footballers (@TheFFBallers) July 13, 2024

142. Looking back at rookie drafts over the last decade, the QB1 in rookie drafts ended up being the best fantasy performer (based on points per game) in just five of the last ten years. Maye’s ceiling is certainly there if you’re willing to swing away. The biggest issue will be the pass-catchers surrounding him. New England had three total games of a receiver posting 80+ receiving yards, the fewest of any NFL team in 2023.

143. Jacoby Brissett is 31 years old but it feels like he’s lived 10 football lives. Next time at trivia night break this one out: He started out his college career in 2011 at Florida with TE Jordan Reed. He transferred to NC State and threw the ball to WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling. He started two regular season games for the 2016 Super Bowl Champion Patriots. He took over for Andrew Luck in Indianapolis and got sacked a league-leading 52 times. Oh and then he’s had short stops in Miami, Cleveland (where he balled out), and Washington last year. He’s done it all. If Brissett starts out of the gate, it projects as one of the toughest opening schedules (@ CIN, SEA, @ NYJ, @ SF) in the NFL along with brutal AFC East divisional matchups looming after.

144. Do we want a piece of this New England backfield? History would suggest looking elsewhere instead of trying to figure this out. Over the last six years, teams with the worst record ended up having horrendous backfields for fantasy. It makes sense: fewer red zone trips = scoring opportunities. Names can emerge (like James Robinson from those Jaguars teams) but, in general, bad teams are a bad bet for RBs.

145. 26-year-old Rhamondre Stevenson received a big bag this off-season as The “Round Mound of Touchdown” signed a brand new four-year extension that makes him the league’s seventh highest-paid RB in the NFL on a per-year basis. Considering he was entering a contract year and the team paid Antonio Gibson, New England must’ve liked seeing a slimmed down Stevenson (RIP the Rhagrande nicknames) in training camp this offseason. 2022 was a banner year for Rhamondre as he gobbled up 88 targets and was on pace for 72 last year. Unfortunately, an ankle injury cut his season short, but he lowered his yards per carry by a full yard: 5.0 to 4.0. His YPRR also has dropped for three straight years (1.54 > 1.24 > 0.95) suggesting that his massive target days are coming to an end.

146. Stevenson‘s value as a fantasy RB comes down to volume and his ability to gain yards after contact. His 2.8 average last year was a far-cry from his previous two years (3.26 & 3.81) where he was one of the most destructive runners in terms of forced missed tackles. While missed tackles forced per touch is one of the least predictive stats for RBs per Ryan Heath, Rhamondre’s weighted opportunities suggest he can still end up being a low-end RB2.

147. Since 2011, we’ve had 39 different rookie QBs start 10+ games and 59% of the time, their starting RB ended up as a top-24 guy. Rhamondre’s rushing TD totals (5, 5, 4) seem a bit lower than you might realize. Over the last 3 years, NFL RBs averaged a rushing TD every 33.2 carries. You can call it the Mac Jones-effect but based on opportunities alone, he’s converted just 8 of his 21 carries inside the five yard line into TDs. That 38% success rate

148. Antonio Gibson signed a “3-year” deal to essentially be a change of pace and passing downs back. He’s averaged 43 receptions per year since coming into the league and some of his 2023 efficiency metrics show he is still one of the more elusive RBs in football: 2nd in Yards Created per Touch, 4th in Yards per Touch, 6th in Fantasy Points per Opportunity, and 9th in PFF’s Elusive Rating. Consider Gibson a flier in PPR leagues but firmly behind Stevenson in terms of touches.

149. If there is an area of discrepancy when it comes to experience, just 13.6% of Rhamondre’s carries over the last 3 years would be deemed “outside zone” concepts per FantasyPoints Data Suite. Antonio Gibson over that same span? 37.9%. It’s as much as a scheme thing as player so don’t go making a conclusion as Stevenson ran this a ton during his college days at Oklahoma. The Alex Van Pelt Patriots offensive system will look quite different from Josh McDaniels and Bill O’Brien.

150. It will be interesting to see what personnel the Patriots run out there in 2024. They led the NFL in 12-personnel sets utilizing 2TEs on 40% of their 1st down snaps. Defenses adjusted as they saw man coverage at the highest rate in the NFL while their QBs ranked 31st in fantasy points per dropback versus the coverage. Opposing defenses used Cover-1 a whopping 29% of the time, highest in the NFL. Looking at the list of which NFL WRs crushed Cover-1 the most, it makes sense the Patriots struggled here. Cover-1 destroyers are the alphas (CeeDee Lamb– 4.76(!) YPRR, A.J. Brown– 4.24, D.J. Moore– 4.78, Chris Olave– 3.80), none of which the Patriots possessed. You need X receivers who can demand targets and body smaller defenders in one-on-one situations. Currently, who is that on the Patriots roster?

151. One of the few bright spots was rookie Demario “Pop” Douglas. The slot WR became one of nine rookie WRs over the last decade to post a targets per route run number of 26+ % while also surpassing 2.0+ YPPR.

152. Based on that routes-based data alone, it should feel like Douglas is the Patriots WR to target. I mean, he gets open, right? Per PFF’s Nathan Jahnke, historical trends of “lead slot role” (without a role in 2 wide) shows we can overvalue this position. Over the past decade, only five wide receivers have more than four games as a WR30 or better and as the team’s slot receiver without being a lead player in two receivers. The type of targets Douglas saw is another piece of the puzzle that adds content. He averaged 1.03 fantasy points per slot target narrowly surpassing guys like Allen Robinson, Josh Reynolds, and Elijah Moore. 25% of his targets were behind the line of scrimmage (8th highest) and 67.1% were nine yards or shorter (17th). In other words, they were the least valuable kind of targets in an offense that never visited the red zone.

153. In a full PPR league, you can squint your eyes and find some useable weeks with Douglas as your 2nd FLEX but the added competition is worrisome. He registered zero top-24 finishes as a rookie despite 79 targets with a a high of 14.4 points in Week 10 versus Indianapolis. In fact, 20 other rookie WRs hit 15+ PPR points in a game including the likes of Jalin Hyatt, Jake Bobo, Andrei Iosivas, A.T. Perry, Trey Palmer, and Bo Melton. How much upside with a rookie QB can you expect from a slot-only guy?

154. The Patriots traded up three spots to select Washington wideout Ja’Lynn Polk at 37 overall in the draft. He technically entered the draft as a red-shirt sophomore thanks to the 2020 COVID year and a 2021 injury where he broke his collarbone. Polk had some fun tape at Washington and, as we discussed in early February on the Dynasty Podcast during prospect season, some of the acrobatic catches were top notch. 62% of his targets were over 10+ yards down the field (8th best in this class) and if you watch the Michigan State game, he “mossed” a few defenders. 

155. Among 48 WRs selected in the 2nd round since 2015, Polk‘s 21.4% final college season TPRR ranks 43rd and his YPRR versus zone (2.09) brings up another red flag to his profile. While those statistics can reflect the college system moreso than individual talent sometimes, he also owned the 2nd lowest PFF receiving grade versus zone in this class. Since 2018, here are the prospects to rank in the bottom 15 percentile of Day 1 & 2 WRs of both TPRR & YPRR:

156. As I’ve stated countless times, those statistics paint a picture of “here’s who he was” in an offense with two top-10 overall picks (Michael Penix Jr. & Rome Odunze) and a third round selection (Jalen McMillan), not “here’s who he will be”. Polk wasn’t necessarily a polished route runner but was able to work the middle of the filed as evidenced by a 39% slot rate the last two years. If he gains some slot snaps in 3-wide AND occupies the X receiver spot in 2-wide, you have a signal this team believes he is an alpha.

157. On the other end of the metric spectrum, 4th round rookie Javon Baker was one of four WRs in this class to post 3+ YPRR versus both man and zone coverage in his final season. His YAC profile intrigues me and while I don’t love the Day 3 draft capital, the landing spot suggests he can wrestle away playing time ahead of the corpses of  KJ Osborn, Tyquan Thornton and Kayshon Boutte.

158. That list of names feels almost comical to bring up. Osborn has received some buzz in camp but you should not be fishing in fantasy for any of these guys. JuJu Smith-Schuster was released after making $31 million thus far in his career after we thought he’d make $131 million through two years of brilliance. I got curious and found out (using Spotrac figures) how much he was paid per reception throughout his career.

UPDATE: He is now a Chief after the publishing of this article. Is he worth moving to that section? No thank you.

159. After over a decade of ineptitude drafting WRs, Tyquan Thornton might be the crowning achievement for Patriots WRs. Taken 50th overall, his selection was one of the more puzzling picks in the 2022 draft. The slender speedster from Baylor had a less than impressive production profile coming in and it was an up-hill battle just for him to find snaps on the field. His 0.76 in Year 1 was dangerously below our threshold but after Year 2, it’s clear he isn’t an impact NFL WR. His 0.66 YPRR (through two years) is in the 5th percentile on WRs drafted Round 1-3 over the last decade. The only names below him? D’Wayne Eskridge, Cody Latimer, Chad Williams, John Ross, Velus Jones Jr., and Breshad Perriman.

160. The Patriots remained committed to veteran TE Hunter Henry signing him to a 3-year extension with $15.8 million guaranteed. This follows up the 3-year free agent deal he signed back in 2021. I won’t go through the dollar per receptions for Henry but after having the most expensive TE room in the NFL thanks to a failed experiment (Mike Gesicki) and Jonnu Smith‘s $12.8 million cap hit to play for the Falcons, Henry looks like the main guy with cheapo Austin Hooper in the mix. Van Pelt’s offenses in Cleveland did target the TEs frequently (5th highest target share) and Henry had four weeks inside the top-3 at the position last year, as many as David Njoku had.

161. Henry led the team in receiving TDs (6) and was lightyears ahead of the rest of the WR room in terms of success rate (62%). A reminder, success rate looks at the following criteria for pass-catchers: “A play is successful when it gains at least 40% of yards-to-go on first down, 60% of yards-to-go on second down and 100% of yards-to-go on third or fourth down“. Here is the discrepancy between Henry and the rest of the Jabronies on the roster:

AFC North

162. For the first time since 1935, every team in a division finished with a winning record: BAL (13-4), CLE (11-6), PIT (10-7), and CIN (9-8). Call this the 2024 Hard Knocks division as “In Season with the AFC North” will debut on December 3 and run through the rest of the regular season and playoffs.

Baltimore Ravens

163. After losing to the Chiefs in the AFC Title game, there is a lot to unpack about Baltimore. For starters, free agency hit them like a mack truck with the most free agency losses in the AFC including defensive stalwarts in LB Patrick Queen (PIT) and safety Geno Stone (CIN) packing their suitcases inside the AFC North. While Derrick Henry‘s arrival is going to gain a ton of attention, the biggest loss might be defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald moving onto Seattle. The Baltimore defense ranked #1 in points per game and 4th in explosive pass rate allowed utilizing a simplified and positionless approach where the defensive terminology

164.The offensive line losses are massive with starters Kevin Zeitler, John Simpson & Morgan Moses all out the door. PFF ranks them 25th heading into the 2024 season, a far cry from their 5th overall finish in their 2023 metrics.

165. One of the quirks of their season was the team going for it on 4th just 11.4% of the time, the lowest rate in the NFL. You can look at that statistic in a couple of different ways for 2024. Did they not need to due to having the lead so frequently? They ranked 2nd in Time of Possession. Did they play conservatively knowing their defense was legit? Maybe.

166. The new Todd Monken system produced another MVP season from Lamar Jackson as he ranked #1 in fantasy points per dropback posting the highest completion rate (67%) and highest yards per attempt (8.0) of his career. Part of the success was leaning into the highest shotgun rate (58%) on 1st downs of Lamar’s career compared to just 33% in 2022. The Ravens not only were efficient through the air but they ranked #1 in rushing yards per game and #1 in rushing yards in shotgun formation.

167. Lamar Jackson’s MVP season wasn’t his most statistically impressive season.

• 2019 MVP– 3127/36/6 + 1206 & 7 on the ground
• 2023 MVP– 3678/24/7 + 821 & 5 on the ground

168. Lamar was as clutch as they get leading all QBs in EPA per play when trailing (by a wide margin) while terrorizing the middle of the field. 24% of Ravens target went to the “middle of the field”, the 5th highest rate in the NFL. Teams didn’t adjust as 61.8% of defensive looks in the middle of the field were 1 high safety “closed” looks, the highest in the NFL. Lamar made opposing defenses pay ranking 3rd in fantasy points per dropback against those sets bested only by Dak Prescott and Brock Purdy.

169. Jackson was almost perfect when targeting a Ravens pass-catcher in the slot in 2023. His numbers (16 passing TDs/ ZERO INTs/134.58 Passer Rating) all ranked #1 in the NFL as the Ravens were the only team in the NFL without an INT here. In his MVP season, all six of his INTs came when targeting the slot. 59% of Ravens’ passing TDs went to players lined up in the slot, the highest in the NFL. However, only 11 passing TDs went to non-slot pass-catchers. That ranked 26th in the NFL, one fewer than the lowly Cardinals who had arguably the league’s worst WR corps.

170. In the AFC Championship game versus the Chiefs, the Ravens tried to double down with 45% of their targets funneled to the SLOT compared to their season average of 35%. Lamar went 8-for-14 for 145 & an INT and zero TDs in the slot as the Ravens were ousted.

171. For all of Lamar‘s fireworks, we didn’t get quite the ceiling rushing games in 2023. He totaled only 3 games of 70+ rushing yards compared to six in 12 starts as we definitely didn’t see as many designed runs in 2023.

172. Lamar in 2024 comes down to believing in his ability for massive spike weeks and the development of a third option in the passing game. Jackson’s “C” in our consistency rankings reveals that he surpassed 20 fantasy points in just 47% of his last 17 games. Mark Andrews & Zay Flowers will be stalwarts but the production from other names on the depth chart. Ravens WRs totaled the 10th fewest fantasy points as a unit in the NFL despite Baltimore ranking 7th in neutral pass rate under Monken. If you are willing to ride the wave and finding a stackable Raven, Lamar is a week-winner and a week-killer.

173. If you drafted “Baltimore Ravens RB” last year, it would’ve totaled the 4th most fantasy points and 3rd most rushing TDs as a group. Gus Edwards‘ 13 rushing TDs is the headline and part of the A + B = C-type equations fantasy managers are piecing together. “Wait… so Gus did that. And Derrick Henry is better than Gus. Insofacto, 20 million Henry scores!” With double-digit rushing TDs for SIX straight years, it is not hard envisioning the King reigning yet again.

174. We do have some precedence with nine different age 30+ RBs scoring double-digit TDs since 2012 including Ravens RB Mark Ingram when he joined the team in 2019 at age 30 and promptly scored 15(!) total TDs. We’ve only seen 14 RBs age 30+ see 200+ carries over the last decade with Frank Gore totaling FOUR of them. (insert laughter) The average yards per carry of that geriatric crew: 4.2 yards per carry.

175. Using our Career Splits tool (available on every player’s profile page), Derrick Henry‘s splits have always closely followed team wins and losses:

176. The biggest transition for Henry will be running out of shotgun formations where 51% of Ravens RB attempts occurred, compared to just 19% of his attempts each of the last two years. It might be a welcome change as his efficiency running in that formation (5.3 & 5.1 yards per carry last two years) was much better compared to when the QB was in pistol or under-center (4.2 & 3.9 respectively).

177. You can just go ahead and delete Henry from any third down passing considerations you might have spiraling around in your brain. Over the last FIVE years, he has just two(!) total receptions on 3rd down. Two! Over the last decade, only four RBs age 30+ hit double-digit total TDs along with fewer than 30 receptions: Adrian Peterson (2015), LeGarrette Blount (2016), Mark Ingram (2019), and Raheem Mostert (2023).

178. Justice Hill saw 52% of the team’s passing downs snaps (same rate as James Cook) and 49% of the snaps inside the red zone, which was #1 among BAL RBs and slightly ahead of James Cook for reference. Will Hill have much impact week-to-week for fantasy? No. But he might be annoying enough to take away more red zone touches (and targets) than you might originally have thought.

179. Keep an eye out for 5th round rookie Rasheen Ali. I’ve talked him up a few times this summer on the dynasty podcast but he has enough size (5’11”, 2016) to eventually take on an early down role if something were to happen to Henry. His 23 rushing TDs as a sophomore at Marshall led FBS but injuries his junior year and during the Senior Bowl plummeted his draft stock. I brought him up as a “Nasty Boy” if you are looking to shoot a dart in dynasty.

180. Keaton Mitchell faces a long road to recovery. The rookie UDFA was a flash in the pan not registering a carry until Week 9 and unfortunately suffered a season-ending knee injury in Week 14… YET, he has more total 20+ yard runs over the last three years than Alvin Kamara! He’s a fun player but with his injury and next-to-nothing guaranteed salary, it is possible he never ever returns to any type of significant playing time in the NFL.

181. Zay Flowers hit above 20 % in TPRR but if you focus only on the games where Mark Andrews was on the field, that number dipped. He did see the most 20+ air-yard targets among rookies (21) so hopefully he continues to see shots downfield moving forward. It was a solid rookie year and he looked like a playmaker with the ball in his hands.

Zay Flowers Splits w/ Mark Andrews pic.twitter.com/HRPHNtjhTJ

— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) January 17, 2024

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182. However, before you crown Flowers a WR1, know that his YPRR numbers are in the 60th percentile for rookie WRs. It’s good but keep in mind that 1st round rookie WRs only improve their YPRR slightly (+0.02) moving into Year 2. In other words, Year 1 is usually a good indicator of what tier they belong in.

183. Flowers‘ target splits are a weird blend of all-or-nothing: 27% were behind the line of scrimmage (6th HIGHEST among WRs) BUT also… 20% were also deep, 20+ air yard targets. The only other wideouts to see that mix of high aDOT and super low aDOT targets

These are players OCs don’t know how to effectively use in the modern NFL as either too small, gadgety guys or low probability deep shots.

184. Going into his 2nd year, it seems the draft community is assuming Flowers is taking off in Year 2. This is the highest ADP for a Ravens WR (going back to 2011!) making the opportunity cost a bit daunting.

185. Rashod Bateman is entering Year 4 with four total games inside the top-24 and five with 10+ fantasy points. Among 1st round WRs selected in the last decade, only Jalen Reagor (4), Kadarius Toney (4), Laquon Treadwell (2) and N’Keal Harry (2) have fewer games among players with at least three years experience.

186. Nelson Agholor is 31 years young and after being targeted on 13% of his routes, it’s clear he’s just another dude in this offense with his diminishing aDOT over the last four years (15.7 > 14.8 > 12.1 > 9.7) signaling he’s near the end of his NFL life. It is worth noting he had four receiving TDs (thanks to some 10-zone looks). That total was as many as Bateman has… in his entire career.

187. 4th round pick Devontez Walker was a fun prospect in the pre-draft scouting process. He was a big play threat at North Carolina with Drake Maye (62% of targets 10+ Yards- #3 in Class) as hitch or go routes were his main thing. He profiles as a classic deep ball WR (hey, a younger Agholor!) better in a straight line rather than bend in routes.

188. Mark Andrews was the TE3 in fantasy before his injury last year pacing out for 81/984/11. He caught 46% of Ravens receiving TDs in his 10 games played, the highest rate among ALL TEs.

189. We might need to reclassify him in your minds as Andrews is one of the best pure receivers in the NFL. He ranked 10th among all pass catchers in ESPN’s Open Score and was on pace for 81/984/11 on 111 targets before his injury. To put those numbers into perspective, only ten WRs have hit those numbers over the last five years: Cooper Kupp, CeeDee Lamb, Davante Adams (x3), Tyreek Hill (x2), Ja’Marr Chase, A.J. Brown, and Stefon Diggs. Travis Kelce was the only TE to hit those marks (he did it twice) reminding us how rare of a TE Andrews can be.

190. Andrews has led all TEs in target share twice (26.6% in 2021 & 28.2 % in 2022) and could easily follow that up again in 2024. He crushed with 2+ TEs on the field (29.9% TPRR, 3.55 YPRR) and when the Ravens get in close, he is the clear first-read as 12 of his 14 red zone targets were first reads.  In fact, Andrews’ 35% red zone target share (in his 10 games played) was bested only by Calvin Ridley (38.6%) and Davante Adams (36.6%) last year. Double-digit TDs is in the cards folks!

191. After Andrews went down, Isaiah Likely picked right up as the TE3 from Week 14 on. He averaged 13.3 fantasy points per game, 56 receiving yards per game, and 1.0 TDs. Yep, that’s right: a touchdown per game. Over the last two seasons in nine games with Andrews out, Likely is averaged 50+ yards and 5+ targets making him the most valuable insurance policy at the TE position. In TE premium leagues, Likely is deserving of a roster spot as the early reports in camp indicate more 2TE sets.

192. When 2 or fewer WRs were on the field last year, the Ravens were dynamite. Despite utilizing it on only 28% of their total dropbacks, it accounted for 39% of their passing yardage. That was the biggest discrepancy (+11%) in the NFL when comparing to 3+ WR sets. With 2 or fewer WRs, Lamar led the NFL in QB Rating (122.5) and adjusted net yards per attempt (10.1) while also routinely using “shot plays” deep as evidenced by the 2nd highest aDOT (10.3) in those formations. Expect more 12-personnel on the field as the WR3s on this team are likely to be a rotational group all year long.

Cleveland Browns

193. The Browns were one of the wildest stories of the NFL season finishing 11-6. Their win expectation (9.4) suggests there was some luck involved (based on point differential), especially catching lightning in a bottle down the stretch with Comeback Player of the Year Joe Flacco. They ranked #1 in time of possession and yet the Browns committed the most turnovers in the NFL (37) with five different starting QBs under center. If you go game-by-game, this team technically had a change at QB eleven times!

194. Their 23 combined INTs last year is the most since the 2018 dynamic duo of Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick for the Buccaneers.

195. Part of their team’s strength lies in a stout pass defense that ranked #1 in passing yards per game allowed and #1 in explosive pass rate allowed. Despite their prowess, the team curiously ranked dead last in red zone TD rate with 71% of their opponent’s drives inside the 20 resulting in a TD. Call it variance or a rush defense that wore down when teams got in close.

196. Going 6-2 in one-score games is kind of an afterthought when you consider how packed their injured reserve was all year long. Their team was hit by the injury bug losing the most games due to injury at linebacker, 2nd most at RB, 3rd most at QB and the 5th most on the offensive line. Year-to-year, those are anomalous figures especially considering how dominant the offensive line can be when the entire unit is together. 

197. The Bills booted Ken Dorsey out of the offensive coordinator position after Week 11 but the former University of Miami QB landed in Cleveland. There is talk about opening up the offense more as Dorsey was Cam Newton’s QB coach in his 2015 MVP season and Josh Allen’s in Buffalo. The big key will be Deshaun Watson’s recovery from shoulder surgery and a closing competitive window on an aging roster.

198. They ran 11-personnel on 1st down 59% of the time, tied for the 6th highest in the NFL. However, when you consider the lack of production the team received at their WR2 & WR3 spots, it was a glaring weakness. They also came in 26th in pre-snap motion (thanks Van Pelt!), a figure that Ken Dorsey historically has been in line with. The jet sweeps and trailing WRs have never really been part of his bag and the personnel here (sorry Elijah Moore truthers) says that will continue.

199. According to Warren Sharp, Cleveland ranks 5th in EPA per play with 2+ TEs on the field since Stefanski took over in 2020 and yet the team has shied further and further away from it. It accounted for just 19.2% of their dropbacks and only 35% of their rush attempts. However, 10 of their 15 rushing TDs occurred in these heavy formations despite their lack of opportunities.

200. How did the offense function differently with Deshaun Watson and Joe Flacco last year? Watson’s shoulder injury complicates things as it was tough to figure out when he was truly healthy considering he played in only “five full” games. While the Browns ranked 29th in pass rate over expectation if you only isolate those five games (Weeks 1-3, 9-10), they also ranked #1 in drive success rate, which is the “percent of drives in which the offense either gained a first down or scored”. Cleveland put up 24, 22, 27, 27 & 33 points in those five games while the defense allowed 3 or fewer points in three of those games. It was a heavier run approach with fewer explosive passing plays. To compare, in Flacco’s five starts (Weeks 13-17), Cleveland ranked #1 in passing yards per game, 2nd in pass rate over expectation, and 7th in explosive pass plays while scoring two more points per game (28.6 to 26.6). However, the turnovers were plenty as the Browns ranked 30th in drive success rate and 31st in turnovers per drive. These were two polar opposites: slow, efficient running or a high-flying turnover-fest.

201. Watson has 11 total starts over the last two years with five top-12 finishes in that span. His efficiency dropped off considerably with a 60% completion rate in those starts compared to 68% as Texan. His TD rate (4.1%) was a career low along with his yards per pass attempt. On non-pressured dropbacks, he ranked 38th out of 45 qualifying QBs in terms of EPA per play. Simply put, the passing efficiency marks which defined him early in his career as a passer have significantly dropped off.

202. Watson‘s rushing totals (per game) weren’t that far off from what he once was (25.6 yards per game versus 30 in Houston) but it’s clear he’s not as explosive coming off multiple surgeries. What does Watson need to do on the ground to finish as a QB1? As a runner, 17.4% of his fantasy production should be generated on the ground. That is the average percentage of top-12 QBs since 2016. Among QBs with 18+ fantasy points per game in that span, the average rushing fantasy points per season was 52.6. In Houston, he surpassed that mark two times (2018 & 2019) thanks to 12 rushing TDs combined. Through two years in Cleveland, his 17-game pace was right under that threshold at 50.1.

203. Nick Chubb dislocated his knee in Week 2 and after two(!) separate off-season surgeries, his recovery timeline suggests you shouldn’t try to get too cute being the person to outsmart everyone in your league. Props to Betz for this stat as 70+ % of players who started the year injured failed to meet their ADP expectation in terms of fantasy finish.

Updated "should I buy the injury dip?" data from 2023 pic.twitter.com/hUqWxw1uFL

— Matthew Betz (@TheFantasyPT) June 7, 2024

204. Chubb is a true outlier and one of my favorite players. At 5.3 yards per carry for his career, he ranks 2nd all-time among RBs with 1,000+ carries. I hate betting against him but his injury + lack of pass-catching + age is the type of three-headed monster you want to avoid in fantasy. He’s been asked to pass-block on 17% of his passing downs snaps since Kevin Stefanski came to town and when you mix in a TPRR of 13% in that span, it’s clear this team views him as an early-down runner only.

205. Consider RB Jerome Ford steady, not sexy. He was a top-24 RB eleven times last year, also known as one more than Breece Hall had on the year. Is he particularly good at one thing? Not really. However, for fantasy purposes, that type of consistency is hard to replicate. He averaged 15.7 opportunities per game and ranked 3rd among all Browns players in targets per route run last year showing that availability is an ability.

206. It is worth mentioning how inefficient Ford was as a runner. Check the tape because he was stuffed in the backfield way more than you might remember. He was stuffed on 28% of his runs, the worst mark among qualifying RBs. The Cleveland running game specializes in man/gap concepts choosing to implement that scheme a league-leading 282 times. However, the Browns ranked 23rd in success rate, 26th in yards per carry, and never truly hit consistent big plays without Nick Chubb. Ford is a floor play to buy yourself a month or more of startable RB2/FLEX weeks on a Browns offense with one of the best offensive lines in football.

207. Don’t rule out D’Onta Foreman from having one or two weeks of massive spike weeks. It’s kinda his thing year-to-year (see Week 7 when he was the RB1 overall after basically being irrelevant for weeks) and Cleveland has TDs on the ground available. Washed up Kareem Hunt was sitting on his couch for the 1st two weeks of the 2023 NFL season. From Week 6 on, he scored more rushing TDs than Aaron Jones & James Cook’s 2022 & 2023 seasons… COMBINED. Hunt is still looking for a job as of this publishing.

208. With 29% of Browns’ “1st Read” Targets, Amari Cooper was the clear alpha last year. He destroyed zone coverage (2.79) despite the ever-changing QB room. His Week 16 explosion against the Texans was the stuff of fantasy legends but it did account for 24% of his fantasy points on the year. We want explosive spike weeks but it is worth noting that he was fantasy’s WR27 heading into that week.

209. The Cooper + Watson connection is an ongoing debate. Over the last two years, the splits look minuscule after 12 with Watson and 20 without. However, if you zoom in only on last year, their five games were better than you might’ve realized:

Amari Cooper had a 17 game pace of 95/1632/7 in the 5 full games with Deshaun Watson. That's 14.8fpg which would have been the WR6.

— Jason Moore (@jasonffl) May 29, 2024

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210. For 2024, Cooper fits in better as a WR2 who can “win you a week”. He still is producing at a high level (2.21 YPRR- 15th among qualifying WRs) but Kevin Stefanski’s stubbornness in leaning into 11-personnel is actually softening Cooper’s alpha nature. He crushed in 12-personnel (4.24 YPRR) and yet Cleveland QBs completed just 54.3% of their passes (30th) in those sets.

211. Are you still holding out hope for Jerry Jeudy? The $41 million in guaranteed money was strange considering how underwhelming he’s been since the Broncos took him in the 1st round way back in 2020. Nevermind that he was selected ahead of CeeDee Lamb and Justin Jefferson, but focus on the fact that for fantasy he’s been an afterthought. In 57 career games, he’s been a top-24 WR just 11 total times, or 19% of his games. Woof.

212. With news of Jeudy manning the slot, there is some hope he can give a boost to a team that might lean more into spread out approach. The Browns had the 2nd fewest slot fantasy points and the 2nd lowest passer rating when targeting the slot.

The lack of efficiency in 11-personnel sets is a killer if you are simply trotting out two route runners (sorry again Elijah Moore and company) who are not aiding your team.

213. Moore somehow finished with 104 targets on the year and turned that into 59 receptions (57% catch rate) and only 640 yards. Over the last decade, he joined nine other WRs to total fewer than 650 receiving yards on 100 targets. His 7.77 PPR points per game ranked 337th out of 338 WRs to see 100+ targets over those ten years. Woof.

214. Cedric Tillman is getting some love as a starting outside WR in training camp. The big 2nd year WR put up some awful Year 1 metrics (11.7% TPRR, 0.63 YPRR) if you are into knowing those things. He has the size to be a presence in the red-zone but with the addition of Jeudy, he is stepping into the Donovan Peoples-Jones role as a “oh yeah he can catch a TD every once in awhile”.

215. David Njoku was a revelation for fantasy managers in 2023 if you had the patience and foresight to go all-in. From Week 7 on, he was the TE1 in fantasy averaging 9.2 targets and registering 6+ receptions in 6 of final 7 games. Njoku‘s final four games was one of the best final stretches over the last decade for a TE:

216. He finished the season among the elites at TE: 1st in YAC, 3rd in Targets, 3rd in TPRR, and 3rd in red zone targets. The concerning thing is Njoku‘s splits with Watson where he’s averaging just 36 receiving yards and 7.1 fantasy points per game in 11 games over the last two years. Watson never prioritized the TE position in Houston and his inability to quick process and look to the middle of the field does curb some of the excitement of Njoku’s ceiling case. He still remains a value in drafts and one of the handful of TEs in the NFL you can lock-in as a top-2 target earner on his team.

217. As weird as this may sound, this team needs another TE. Ok, let me clarify: they need another consistent blocking TE to unleash some of that 12-personnel magic that Stefanski brought since taking over as head coach. With Harrison Bryant leaving town to become a Raider (why?), the only other relevant name on the roster is 32 year-old Jordan Akins. He ranked 83rd out of 83 qualifying TEs in PFF’s pass-blocking efficiency measurement last year but at least I can share with you the fact he had the oldest draft age of any TE selected over the last decade. Akins is two years older than teammate Amari Cooper and yet he came into the NFL a full three seasons after him. Wow.

Pittsburgh Steelers

218. Mike Tomlin did it again! The Steelers had the most wins in the division (5-1 in AFC North) but that should come as no surprise given Tomlin’s insane run over the last 17 years. Since he was named head coach in 2007, the Steelers have won 8+ games every single year and he carries an impressive .633 career win percentage.

219. Currently, their win total of 8.5 is leaning heavily towards the under (-160 which is a 61.5% implied odds) and you can point the finger at their schedule. They have Warren Sharp’s hardest strength of schedule including “3rd place games” against the Jets, at Indianapolis, and at Atlanta.

220. The “Steeler way” has always most clearly seen in it’s hard-nosed, lunch pail approach on defense but it is worth mentioning that this was the most expensive defense in NFL history last year. At $159.78 million in total spending, they more than doubled the capital spent on the offense. You know all about the big names (T.J. Watt, Cameron Heyward & Minkah Fitzpatrick) and now former Ravens LB Patrick Queen has defected in the division at a whopping $13.6 million in annual salary.

221. This defense will create pressure and turnovers which is the goal for any defense but the secondary remains a work in progress after ranking 28th in explosive pass rate allowed. The end of season numbers (7th in points allowed, 7th in EPA per play) are a reflection of Tomlin.

222. The low volume passing attack was highlighted by 13(!) total passing TDs thanks to ranking dead last in neutral pass rate and 31st in explosive pass plays of 15+ yards. Woof. The opportunity was there as 89% of Steeler dropbacks had 3+ WRs on the field, the 3rd highest rate in the NFL.

223. The fantasy community might’ve cheered for his demise in Atlanta but Arthur Smith feels like a perfect fit for what the Steelers want to do: run the dang ball. Pittsburgh limited turnovers (#2 in NFL) and leaned on the 5th highest rush rate en route to yet another playoff appearance for Mike Tomlin. For the NFL, this can work; for fantasy, it’s hard buying into too many pieces with the passing attack. 

224. Expect 2WR sets, Pistol formations and wider lanes to hopefully run through as 60% of Falcons running plays in 2023 were zone-blocking schemes. The Steelers actually had a ton of success in map/gap concepts ranking third in the NFL in yards per carry (5.02) in those looks. The offensive line is one of the biggest selling points of this team as they come into the season ranked 9th according to PFF’s pre-season rankings. After drafting two offensive linemen in the 1st two rounds, this will be the focus: physicality.

225. You might’ve deleted Russell Wilson from your memory but he bounced back in a number of areas after a dreadful 2022 season. Last year, he led the NFL in passing TDs under pressure (13) which is a testament to how bad the Broncos offensive line was. Wilson was pressured on 41% of his dropbacks, tied for the highest of his career. 223.

226. Wilson‘s 5.8% TD rate tied Kirk Cousins for 3rd highest in the NFL and now gives him nine seasons above 5% since entering the league in 2012. He is one more away from elite territory. Russ looked like he was on a Hall of Fame trajectory and currently ranks 21st all-time in PFR’s HOF Monitor metric.

Rank	Player	5+ % TD Rate Seasons
1	Tom Brady	13
2	Drew Brees	13
3	Aaron Rodgers	12
4	Ben Roethlisberger	10
5	Peyton Manning	10
6	Russell Wilson	9

[/ffb_table]

227. For Steelers fans, you can expect a simple approach: check it down or chuck it deep. Wilson led the NFL in checkdown rate (18.6%) and the evidence is clear as Broncos RBs led the NFL in RB receptions. Call that a boost for Jaylen Warren truthers while also realizing he ranked  10th in deep pass percentage. Russ wanted to keep things alive and extend plays as his “1st read” rate was 53.7%, dead last among 77(!) different QBs to attempt a pass in 2023.

228. At this point, I guess we know what Justin Fields is? 43% of his fantasy points in his career came via the ground:

229. While Fields is the more accomplished runner, his play in both preseason and training camp was erratic at best. Fields ranked 4th in deep throw rate (14.1%) making go ball enthusiasts for George Pickens likely immune to who the QB is. As John Madden once said, “if you have two quarterbacks, you have none.” Russ might start the season, but I can read the headlines right now: “Justin Fields leads Fantasy Managers to Championships Despite 4 Turnovers!”

230. Entering a contract year, it can be easy to bypass Najee Harris in your drafts as he feels like the least sexy RB2 you could take. His opportunities per game have declined in three straight years (23.6 > 19.1 > 17.2) and Jaylen Warren clearly is the hotter name in fantasy circles. However, he has surpassed 1,000 rushing yards each of his first three seasons and don’t forget his second half impact as he was the RB8(!) from Week 7 on.

231. Rationally speaking, it makes sense to bypass Najee in drafts but both RBs will be playing in their age 26 season. Both can eat as Arthur Smith’s Falcons RBs steadily improved in total RB fantasy points scored over his three years: 16th < 9th < 5th last year. Both had eight top-24 performances but Warren’s contributions as a receiver (61 receptions) is begging us to look beyond the current perceived depth chart. Think of Austin Ekeler and Melvin Gordon a few years back.

Which Pittsburgh RB are you drafting?

Bonus:
Najee career fumbles = 5
Warren = 5

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Najee career carries = 834
Warren = 226 🤯 pic.twitter.com/9o2MpoOvRK

— Fantasy Footballers (@TheFFBallers) August 10, 2024

232. Warren lapped Najee in the passing game as he was targeted on a robust 28.1% of his routes compared to Harris’ 16.9%. Warren also somehow has yet to score a receiving TD in his career despite catching 89(!) passes. Expect that to change as they get inside the red zone and Warren becomes a mismatch in space for linebackers.

233. Let’s not assume he is some scatback. At 5’8″, 215 lbs., Warren is a bowling ball on the field. Among 69 RBs with 50+ rush attempts, he finished 3rd in yards after contact per attempt, 4th in breakaway rush rate, and 2nd in missed tackles forced per attempt. He ranked 21st in early down success rate (Najee was 53rd among qualifying RBs) revealing he is more than just a passing downs back. He might never receive the workload we truly desire (thanks Arthur!) and his preseason hamstring injury is going to make him a risky addition to fantasy teams playing the waiting game.

234. Easily one of my favorite quotes of the off-season, “I’ll pull all-nighters, just thinking about football.” Confirmed Dawg? Or dude… get some sleep! You have a job! From the outset, George Pickens seems like a volatile player… a “better in best ball” type. He is type casted as “just a jump ball guy” but his usage changed in 2023 when you compare his percentage of depth of targets. After 35.7% of his targets were 20+ air yards in Year 1, that downshifted to 21.2% in Year 2 with an increase in intermediate area targets (39.4%).

George Pickens Targets? GP Targets, It is!

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12 min of all GP from 2023 📽️ pic.twitter.com/5742Cjobzy

— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) June 21, 2024

235. The routes-based numbers look much better including his YPRR versus zone coverage.

236. Pickens is tracking as someone who can provide spike weeks but the new offensive system with Arthur Smith does provide some worries.  Pickens ran just 96 routes with two or fewer WRs on the field but did post an impressive 42% air-yard share and 3.32 YPRR in those sets.  In four games with Diontae Johnson off the field, he averaged 8 targets per game, 1500-yard pace with some impressive per-route metrics: 24% TPRR, 2.96 YPRR.

237. Year 2 historically is where we bet on WR breakouts (think top-24). Year 3 is where we see true ceiling outcomes in the top-12 (even top-5) realm. Over the last decade, 13 WRs hit 1,000 yards before turning 23 like Pickens. In Year 3? The 17 game pace of those WRs was 13 fantasy points per game and a WR18 finish. Pickens is not being drafted near there currently.

238. The Steelers know a thing or two about drafting WRs on Days 2 & 3. Roman Wilson is a dependable, “where he was supposed to be” guy if you watched any Michigan Wolverines football in 2023. His route tree is fairly diverse and a likened him to Jayden Reed as a jack-of-all-trades guy who just gets open working in the short & intermediate area of the field and down the field. Among prospects taken on Day 2 since 2014, he ranks in the bottom-25% in TPRR at just 22.8% in his senior season. However, for Year 1, he should be off the redraft radar.

239. The competition for targets is laughable when you consider the likes of Van Jefferson, Calvin Austin II, Quez Watkins and Scotty Miller are the next men up. Keep in mind that Arthur Smith used two WRs on the field 85+ % of the time last year for the Falcons resembling a 1985-type offense.

240. There is some steam on a return to relevance for Pat Freiermuth. The Muth(!) was the TE8 just two years ago but finished 63/732/2 last year appearing in just 12 games last year due to hamstring injury. New OC Arthur Smith has a special place in his heart for TEs as Atlanta ranked #1 in TE target share.  The WR depth chart around him is doo doo with Diontae Johnson out the door and a bunch of vagabonds behind George Pickens and Roman Wilson competing for a roster spot. TE breakouts usually happen on the 2nd contract (David Njoku, TJ Hockenson, Travis Kelce) so trading for the Muth on the cheap now knowing he still has tons of NFL life left makes sense.

241. 2TE sets are going to be an emphasis so 6’7″ Monstar Darnell Washington could be a name worth knowing. The former 2023 third round pick was mostly irrelevant as a rookie seeing 10 targets for 7 receptions and 61 yards despite averaging 48% of the snaps. One of Smith’s favorite TEs (MyCole Pruitt) was brought over from Atlanta although he was called for three penalties as a run-blocker and his PFF pass-blocking grade in “true-pass sets” (excludes plays with less than 4 rushers, play action, screens, short dropbacks and time-to-throws under 2 seconds) ranked 81st out of 85 qualifying TEs. Washington fits the bill as a mammoth run blocker (better in zone schemes) after being the Steelers highest graded player in preseason Week 1.​

Cincinnati Bengals

242. The Bengals feel like one of the weirder teams to project in 2024. Despite finishing 4th in their division last year, their 10.5 win total is tied with the Ravens for most in the division thanks to a much easier schedule. Compare their “4th place” games (NE, @ TEN, @ CAR) to Pittsburgh’s third place games (NYJ, @ IND, @ ATL) and it makes sense.

243. You have to examine Cincinnati’s season in chunks if you want to review 2023. They had a slow start offensively as Joe Burrow returned from injury. Through the first month of the season, they ranked dead last in total yards per game, points per game, and explosive pass rate. Oh, and the running game was atrocious as well ranking 31st in rushing yards per game.

244. It was a straight up poo-poo platter for fantasy purposes. Consider the Bengals’ top four fantasy options and the stench you sat in during those first four weeks:

• QB31 Joe Burrow– QB31 / 21 / 26 /28
• RB19 Joe Mixon– RB27 / 20 / 15 /26
• WR28 Ja’Marr Chase– WR47 / 68 / 10 / 27
• WR49 Tee Higgins– WR122 / 3 / 84 / 83

245. OK, so what about the rest of the way? From Week 5 on, this team ranked #1 in pass rate over expectation, 5th in EPA per pass attempt, 11th in total yards, and 9th in points per game. After starting the season 1-3 and eventually losing your franchise QB in Week 11, it is a miracle this team finished above .500.

246. The Bengals did have the benefit of health on the offensive line last year with the same five offensive linemen on the field together for 96% of snaps, the highest in the NFL. After adding RT Trent Brown in Free Agency, there is some optimism that the rushing offense can improve from ranking 31st in rushing yards per game (89.8) last year.

247. No belly itcher here! After multiple teams interviewed him, the Bengals wanted to keep Dan Pitcher in-house after he built a rapport as Joe Burrow’s QB coach since the team drafted him in 2020. Brian Callahan is gone as OC but the play-calling duties are still a Zac Taylor thing so don’t expect a ton of changes with this system. The Bengals ranked 30th in no-huddle rate which is surprising given the explosive in the passing game and heavy shotgun approach. Can we speed things up people?

248. The team relied heavily on 11-personnel rolling 3+WRs on 70% of their teams 1st down and the 2nd highest shotgun rate. This offense went short, short, and short with the lowest aDOT in the NFL.

249. Joe Burrow could not have had a more polar opposite stretch:

• 1st 4 weeks– TWO total passing TDs , dead last in Comp. Rate (57.6%)
• Next 5 games Before Thumb Injury– 12 passing TDs , #1- Comp. Rate (74.1%)

250. For Burrow, it is always an issue with TD Rate as his rate has declined (6.5 %, 5.8%,  4.1%) three years in a row. If he hits, 30+ passing TDs, you are more than happy as evidenced by two seasons in his career where he finished as QB8 & QB4. For what it’s worth, this is cheapest we’ve seen Joe Burrow over the last couple of years.

251. Bengals backup Jake Browning technically led the NFL in completion rate at 70.4% in his 7 starts. If you only focused on those starts and extrapolated them over a 17-game season, Browning would’ve totaled 4,536 passing yards, 27 passing TDs, and another seven TDs on the ground. From Week 12 on, Browning was the QB4(!) averaging 20 fantasy points per game. He was re-signed as an insurance policy for Burrow.

252. Break out your Spiderman memes, because Burrow and Browning were at lot closer in terms of target depth than you might imagine. It was essentially the same offense albeit Burrow was much more accurate. It also is fun to tell your league-mates that Browning had as many games of 20+ fantasy points (3) as Burrow despite starting three fewer games.

253. There was a clear distinction in how defenses diagnosed their looks as Cincinnati ranked 3rd in fantasy points per dropback versus man while coming in 22nd versus zone. Part of that equation was the WRs creating after the catch and manhandling defenders. Browning (59.7%) ranked 2nd behind only Mahomes (63.8%) in terms of % of yardage via YAC and Burrow (54.3%) wasn’t far behind.

254. Getting the ball in Chase and Higgins’ hands was a huge part of success. In fact, Cincy pass-catchers ranked 6th in YAC per reception (5.74), 4th in total forced missed tackles (71) on receptions and 2nd in yards after contact per reception (2.32) behind only perennial YAC-master San Francisco.

255. As I mentioned earlier (I mean who could forget stat #246), the rushing attack was an issue all year long. Joe Mixon‘s fantasy finish (RB5) looks impressive but it was a combination of a ton of opportunities inside the 10 yard line (most in the NFL) and simply “staying alive” by not missing any time. He played 752 of Cincinnati’s offensive snaps (69%), saw 81% of the team’s running back attempts (#3 among RBs), and 100% of the team’s rushing TDs. In other words, he was everything to this backfield despite the lack of success, especially on runs under center where Cincy ranked 28th.

256. Zack Moss was brought in for two reasons: pass blocking and shotgun running. Among RBs with 60+ Pass Blocks, he ranked #1 in PFF’s Pass Blocking Efficiency Metric. That won’t help you score fantasy points but his familiarity running out of the shotgun will. It is not hard to connect the dots between Mixon and Moss and see that Cincy with the cheaper alternative who might be able to give 85-90% of that skillset.

257. Entering Year 5 in the NFL, Moss is an enigma to figure out. There was a moment when he was one of THE stories of fantasy football in 2023. When Jonathan Taylor was out, he was a usage monster from Weeks 2-7 averaging 17.2 fantasy points per game on 22.2 opportunities. The pros: while Cincy had 10 picks in the NFL Draft, they used zero at the RB position. The cons: He is Zack Moss. Betting on a true breakout from RBs at this stage in their career (historically) is a losing bet. Over the decade here are some age 26 RBs, that fit the following criteria like Moss: 26+ years old, averaging under 4.3 yards per carry with zero top-24 seasons and thrust into a “starting role”:

258. Despite Moss being brought in, 2nd year RB Chase Brown is receiving the most buzz out of camp and during preseason. From Week 9 on, he averaged nine opportunities per game but saw just one carry inside the 10. His 54-yard TD reception in Week 14 is also skewing some of his averages as he went untouched and left wide open on the play. We can’t completely write it off as he profiles as the much more explosive back compared to Moss.

259. In these situations, what should we do for fantasy? Is it Moss or Brown? Taking shots at either one in your drafts is a viable strategy hoping one of them surfaces to the top. As Mike detailed in one of his Tips & Tricks, over the past five years, an average of 8.5 teams have lacked a top-24 drafted running back (like the Bengals). However, five players from these teams typically exceed expectations and break into the top 24.  RBs drafted outside the top 24 who break into it are usually part of a top 14 NFL offense. Taking a shot at these RBs in the back of your draft in hopes one of them hits and vaults ahead of the other is a viable strategy.

260. Through three years, we know what Ja’Marr Chase is: a fantasy difference maker. He scored 20+ fantasy points in 33% of his 45 career games. Over the last 3 years, that rate is behind only Cooper Kupp (45%), Tyreek Hill (42%), and Justin Jefferson (36%).  You felt that in 2023 with a true boom/bust season with five top-10 performances and zero(!) between WR11-WR26.

261. One of the areas to note in 2023 was his change in usage. Chase led all WRs in Receptions behind the line of scrimmage with a whopping 24.8% of his targets there. His aDOT has dropped three years in a row (13.6 > 9.9 > 9.1) as evidenced by Cincinnati QBs ranking dead last in the NFL in aDOT.

262. He remains a locked-in top-5 WR knowing the TD equity (averaging 9.7 per season) he brings. Whatever doubts you might have or irrational reasons to think Chase isn’t as good as other WRs, consider the fact only 3 WRs have averaged more PPR fantasy points per game (17.99) through three seasons in their career: fellow LSU alumni Odell Beckham Jr. (21.18), Justin Jefferson (19.47), and Randy Moss (19.18)

263. It was a rough season if you tried to guess correctly on Tee Higgins. He was as hot and cold as you could imagine with four monster games and a run of absolute roster killers. From Weeks 1-8, he finished outside the top-75(!) WRs four times scoring 0.0, 3.1, 2.0, and 3.0 fantasy points in those games.

264. Tee Higgins remains an enigma for fantasy but in Joe Burrow‘s two healthy seasons, he was a top-15 WR in PPR points per game: WR14 in 2021 and WR13 in 2022.

265. The only area of significance for Higgins compared to Ja’Marr Chase was his average depth of target. Nevertheless, Higgins finished with just 3 total receptions of 20+ air yards on the season, a far cry from the nine he had in 2022. Entering a contract year, expect some splash games although it’s clear he will always be #2 in the target pecking order.

266. As a 3rd WR in a pure shotgun offense, someone in this offense has a chance to outshine WR2s in a low volume offenses. Cincinnati ranked 2nd in neutral pass rate and 3rd in 11-personnel (70% of the time) as the departed Tyler Boyd ranked 14th in routes run among all WRs ahead of names like A.J. Brown and Amon-Ra St. Brown. Boyd averaged 91 targets over the last three seasons with Chase and Higgins so there is room for rookie Jermaine Burton to eat at the table from this passing pie.

267. Drafted in the 3rd round, Burton is shaping up to be one of the sneakier names heading into the 2024 season. Zac Taylor was pumped when they drafted him as he’s a big play waiting to happen. He led all Power-5 WRs in aDOT (20.2) and ranked 3rd in yards per team passattempt behind only Rome Odunze & Brian Thomas Jr. 

268. 2nd year WR Andrei Iosivas is battling to win that 3rd WR job (alongside Trenton Irwin) but he has the size (6’3″) and speed (91st percentile weight adjusted score) to give off some Christian Watson vibes. After basically being irrelevant for most of his 2023 rookie campaign, Iosivas caught two TDs in Week 18 and now has one more career 15+ fantasy point game than Jameson Williams has. (He has zero.)

269. Mike Gesicki is the big name here but his efficiency numbers have been awful and trending downward the last four years:

• Fantasy Points per Game: 8.9 > 7.6 > 4.8 > 3
• Yards per Route Run: 1.60 > 1.45 > 0.99 > 0.72

72% of his routes last year were in the slot, 2nd only to Mark Andrews among TEs. He signed a one-year deal with $400K guaranteed playing now on his third team in three years. 

270. The TE position is simply not one worth chasing here. Since Burrow became starter in 2020, Bengals TEs have ranked 29th in fantasy points scored and 30th in target share at 14.5%. The expected PPR points per game for Bengals TEs over the last 3 years: 31st, 27th, and 20th. It is a crowded room with the team double tapping TE in Rounds 4 and 6 (Erik All & Tanner McLachlan) as well as resigning Drew Sample to a 3-year extension for $10.5 million and $2.35 million guaranteed. Oh, and don’t forget preseason extraordinaire Tanner Hudson who was targeted on 26% of his routes in the slot last year during the regular season. That was the same % as Travis Kelce and T.J. Hockenson.

AFC South

Houston Texans

268. The Texans were one of the feel good stories of 2024 winning the division during the final week of the season against the Colts in Indianapolis. The wildest thing about this AFC South division is the youthfulness of the QBs:

• C.J. Stroud– Turns 23 in early October
• Anthony Richardson– Just turned 22 in May
• Trevor Lawrence– Turns 25 in early October
• Will Levis– Already 25 years old… he’s the oldest somehow.

269. They are some oddities when consider what Houston did on a per play basis. They ranked #1 in turnover rate per drive (as in the best) but curiously 29th in time of possession. That continues a four-year run of being in the bottom-5 (32nd, 28th, 30th, and 29th last year) despite four entirely different coaching staffs! You can strike that up to a number of factors as they routinely got off to slow starts ranking 27th in EPA per play on their 1st drive of games and 19th in 1st quarter points scored while being in the top half of the other three quarters.

270. This team also finished strong in close games going 7-3 in one score affairs despite routinely not having the ball. They bested only Seattle in 2nd half possession rate (aka the Texans were “31st-best” to quote Jason Moore) and went from a top-5 defense in points allowed in the 1st half to 26th in the second half. Texans fans can attest to the wild ride this team was on highlighted best by a 39-37 win over the Buccaneers in Week 9. 115 yards of penalties did not help and despite the discrepancy in time of possession, C.J. Stroud‘s five TDs and rookie record 470 total yards eventually won out with a 15 yard TD pass to Tank Dell with six seconds remaining.

271. In the pre-snap motion department, OC Bobby Slowik followed in line with his San Francisco predecessors as the team’s splits with (8.6 yards per pass attempt) and without (6.6) pre-snap motion showed a clear level of efficiency when things were moving.

272. The offensive line suffered some unfortunate luck in 2023. Despite being the most expensive unit in the NFL (in terms of total 2023 salary), this team ranked dead last in terms of “games lost” due to injury. Per Warren Sharp, their most common offensive Line lineup was on the field just 20.2% of the time together!

273. The defense made some big splashes in free agency adding EDGE Danielle Hunter, EDGE Denico Autry, and LB Azeez Al-Shaair to bolster the front seven. The Texans had one of the biggest turn arounds in league history in terms of rushing defense. Before DeMeco Ryans arrived, this team allowed 170.2 rushing yards per game in 2023. To put that number in perspective, that team allowed the MOST rushing yards in NFL history: 2,894. Last year? The Texans allowed the lowest yards per carry to opposing RB (3.3) in the NFL. That number would’ve been even lower (3.1) apart from Jonathan Taylor‘s monster Week 18 game (30/188/1) against them.

274. Can we gush about C.J. Stroud? He was willing to chuck it deep ranking 2nd most air yards per pass attempt and 2nd highest completion (56%) on deep attempts of 20+ Air Yards. He also carved up zone coverage with the 3rd Highest passer rating versus zone- 104.8) and the 4th MOST Intermediate Completions (76)– the most by a rookie since Jameis Winston in 2015. Since 2000, among rookie QBs with 300+ pass attempts, he ranks #1 in yards per attempt.

275. Those intermediate areas of the field is what I loved about Stroud in my pre-draft evaluation as you saw a league-high 26% of the team’s targets flood to the middle of the field. Stroud ranked 5th among all QBs in fantasy points per dropback (0.50) versus 2-high safety looks.

276. Stroud crushed on early downs ranking 2nd among all QBs in yards per attempt (8.7) and EPA per pass attempt. The San Francisco system Bobby Slowik brought over was being replicated in Houston as the only other QB better in those two categories: Brock Purdy.

277. Was everything all roses? They did shy away from using play-Action only 25% of Stroud‘s dropbacks with a league-leading seven turnover-worthy plays per Pro Football Focus. His splits against pressure was also pronounced (35th in pass success rate versus 7th in a clean pocket) but that is to be expected for any rookie. For fantasy purposes, he also only provided a couple of spike weeks (games of 20+ fantasy points)

278. Stroud‘s ADP suggests he’s being drafted near his ceiling. We’ve done this before in fantasy: crowning QBs who balled out as rookies (*cough Baker Mayfield cough*) and making them a top-5 despite a glaring lack of rushing production. You might say to yourself: Nah, if anything, he has nowhere to go but UP! Among QBs drafted in 1st round who had a TD rate of 4+ % in Year 1, the average decline in passing TD rate was 0.93%. In other words, if Stroud goes down to 3.6%… managers are in trouble.

279. Over the last decade, the truly historic seasons were aided by rushing statistics. We’re talking best of the best… the top-12 total fantasy points scorers at the QB position. On average 28+ % of their fantasy production came via rushing where Stroud was under 15% last year aided by 3 rushing TDs. This is an argument favor of Anthony Richardson. Stroud needs a 30-35+ passing TD to not only pay off his ADP but supply his pass-catchers with elevated ADPs.

280. Running the ball effectively is a staple of the San Francisco system that Slowik brought over but the personnel in Houston was a far cry from that elite Shanahan squad. Houston RBs ranked 29th in yards after contact per rush attempt and 29th in rush success rate. 57% of Texans rush attempts went to the left side (3rd highest in the NFL) and yet they scored just ONE rushing TD in that direction.

281. Joe Mixon quietly finished as the RB5 last year and now holds the title as the only RB in fantasy to finish inside the top-12 for each of the last three years.

282. Trading for the 28-year-old Mixon and extending him at this stage in his career was a curious move. The scheme changes for Mixon are drastic as he was purely a shotgun runner in Cincinnati ranking 2nd in the NFL in rushing yards out of shotgun last year behind only D’Andre Swift. Mixon faced 6-or-fewer defenders in the box on just 30% of his career carries, the 2nd highest rate of any RB in the NFL since 2017 according to Warren Sharp. In Houston, Devin Singletary and company saw base-fronts (7 defenders) at the 2nd highest rate (46.3%) in the NFL where he averaged just 3.6 yards per carry.

283. The key to Mixon‘s success will be the red zone work. After leading the entire NFL in carries inside the 10, you can connect the dots. Houston saw that as an area of weakness after ranking 25th in rush success and 26th in EPA per rush inside the 20 last year. This might be more of a “buy into the offense” than a stamp of approval on a 28-year-old RB. Consider Mixon an RB2 with upside to finish once again inside the top-12 if he hits 10+ TDs.

284. Dameon Pierce is the perfect cautionary case study for dynasty RBs. The hype was unwarranted for a Day 3 pick who was crowned a top-15 dynasty RB last year based on “he’s the only guy there” theory. He was used as a kick returner (including a 98-yard house call in Week 16 against the Browns) which gives him some life with these new kickoff return rules.

285. This team also lined up in 21-personnel 29% of the time on 1st downs mainly using fullback Andrew Beck as a carbon copy of what San Francisco does with Kyle Juszcyzyk. Beck was in on 32% of offensive snaps and ran just two fewer routes than Pierce did on the year. Is he irrelevant for fantasy purposes? Does he dominate in your start 3 fullbacks dynasty league? You bet!

286. How do we sort out these three WRs for fantasy? The Texans join the Bears as two of four teams since 2018 to have three WRs from the same team drafted in the top-36. It is a tough task for a QB to supply all three but not impossible considering Stroud supplied two top-15 guys on a points per game basis last year.

287. Nico Collins is the WR1 for this team and got paid like it. His 3.10 YPRR was historic and the leap from Years 1 & 2 to 3 is meteoric including almost tripling his career TDs and going from averaging 2.9 receptions per game to 5.3.

288. The more you look into Collins, you realize he was a true boss. He led all WRs in broken tackles (16) with the next closest being at 12. Also, according to Sports Info Solutions, he was the only WR in the NFL to catch every single 15+ yard catchable target. Among WRs with 15+ catchable targets of 15+ yards, he caught ALL OF THEM.

Your buddy: dUdE, rEaLlY? NiCo CoLlInS?

You: uNICOrns eXiSt.

Here are all his 15+ yard receptions from 2023 📽️ pic.twitter.com/ftiqoz7wA9

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— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) August 5, 2024

289. The only caution worth throwing to the wind with Collins is the bumpy ride. Despite six top-12 finishes last year, he had ZERO between WR13-25. In other words, it was an all-or-nothing gamble so if you are comfortable with the highs knowing there will be weeks where the other two WRs eat, so be it.

290. It was a tale of two seasons for Stefon Diggs:

• Weeks 1-9– Averaged 17.8 fantasy points per game as the WR3 in that span
• Week 10 on– Averaged 7.5 fantasy points per game as the WR47 in that span with ONE finish inside top-24

Here are the top-20 best fantasy seasons for a WR changing teams in Year 10 over the last decade. Reminder: these aren’t all of them… just the ten best.

291. You can point to a number of factors but he was still targeted on 28% of his routes with very few effective deep targets for fantasy. Diggs used to have a healthy mix of deep & intermediate targets but with his age, he lacks the frame to be a YAC guy or beat people based on pure speed. On 24 deep targets last year, he totaled just six receptions, only ONE Contested Catch & Josh Allen was credited with three INTs.

292. He’s been better with fewer WRs on the field (less competition for targets) giving some credence to Diggs sliding into a slot role.

293. From Weeks 9-12, Tank Dell was the WR3 averaging 20.5 fantasy points per game, 10.8 targets, 92.3 receiving yards per game, and 1.3 TDs. He had as many top-12 fantasy performances (4) as Davante Adams or Brandon Aiyuk had on the entire season!

294. 72% of Dell’s receptions went for a 1st down or TD, 7th best among ALL WRs with 75+ targets. For such a small WR (165 lbs.), he was not utilized that way with 60+ % of his targets ending up 10+ yards downfield and 70% out wide. Dell’s 2.22 YPRR is a top-10 number for rookies since 2014 and his rookie year is being used as a template for string-bean guys like Xavier Worthy in 2024. For those who scream that Tank is “too small, he’s going to get injured again!”, his ankle was rolled up on the goal-line when he was blocking in that Week 13 game. It was a freak play, not prescriptive at this point.

they said 165 lbs. wasn't big enough to become a Tank… pic.twitter.com/IBmfy2DotH

— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) May 7, 2024

295. One of the biggest concerns with Tank Dell is the “that dude is gonna get injured again!” Before his Week 13 injury (fractured fibula), he was the WR10(!) in fantasy points per game. Every player in the NFL has a risk of injury. His ankle got rolled up on at the goal-line  on a freak play. (Thanks Dameon Pierce!) You want to know the last time Tank Dell got injured? September 1st, 2018(!)… when he was a freshman at Alabama A&M. Between that freshman year and Week 13 in the NFL last year, he played in 59 games in college and NFL.  He played 2,472 snaps without his body breaking and it’s not like he was uninvolved… he had 199 receptions his final 2 years at University of Houston!

296. What are the chances Dell ends the year as this team’s WR1? If you look solely at the games where Nico and Tank ran 20+ routes in the same game together (Weeks 1-4, 8-9, & 11-12), the PPR points per game (18 for Nico/17 for Dell) and TPRR (25% for Nico/21% for Dell) suggests Nico remains the favorite. The TD department is going to be the big differentiator although Week 1 in preseason showed the kind of separator and afterburners we loved as a rookie.

297. You probably forgot all about John Metchie III. The lost rookie year due to his leukemia is a story of perseverance but this 2nd round draft pick was quickly surpassed on the depth chart by Tank Dell and journeyman Noah Brown this year. Metchie might’ve been overdrafted (2.44) coming out of Alabama with some red flags about his ability to beat zone in college. He averaged just one reception per game and his 0.92 YPRR putting him in the N’Keal Harry territory of prospects. Despite Dell going down in Week 13, Metchie totaled just 20 receiving yards over the final five games.

298. Dalton Schultz secured the bag this off-season becoming a consistent part of this offense. From Weeks 4-11, he was the TE3 in fantasy points per game averaging six targets and catching TDs in five of those seven games.

299. Schultz was a close second behind Nico inside the red zone in a number of important categories including red zone 1st reads and end zone targets. While some of the counting stats are skewed considering both Nico and Tank missed time, Schultz should have enough TD equity in this offense to be an annoyance to other managers and a “better in best ball” TE.

Jacksonville Jaguars

300. Coming off their Week 12 win @ HOU, Jaguars were 8-3… in contention #1 seed in AFC. Going back to the 2022 season, they had won eight straight on the road and things were looking good! They went 1-5 the rest of the season missing out on the playoffs by losing 20-28 to Ryan Tannehill and the Titans in Week 18.

301. One of the easiest fingers to point is to the turnovers. The Jaguars ranked 27th in turnovers per drive on offense while the defense did an adequate job keeping the team in games ranking 16th in pressure rate and the secondary ranking a surprising 7th in EPA per dropback. The defensive front could be a special group in 2024 with Joshua Hines-Allen, Travon Walker coming on stronger, newly signed Arik Armstead and 2nd round rookie Maason Smith.

302. But the biggest issue is asking a simple question in reviewing 2023: what did they do well? The offense didn’t rank in the top-15 of any EPA metric regardless of their formations and their WRs ranked dead last in total YAC and YAC per reception. Ok, I can find one stat they were elite in: 3rd quarter scoring. The Jaguars scored the 2nd most points in the 3rd quarter. Does that get you excited after also knowing they ranked 22nd in 1st quarter and 21st in 2nd quarter?

303. Opposing defenses threw heavy Cover-3 looks (36%) against the Jags (6th highest in the NFL) and Trevor Lawrence responded with a solid +5.4% completion percentage over expectation (9th among qualifying QBs) and a heavy dosage of 1st read targets (76.5%- 2nd only to new teammate Mac Jones). Quick decisions was his preferred strategy: only Tua had a faster time to throw or a higher 1st read target percentage of pass attempts. He is one of the more predictable QBs in terms of where he targets players on the field.

304. The set-up of the running game does need some polishing if OC Press Taylor wants to make some adjustments in 2024. They ranked dead last in yards per carry on man/gap concepts and the team averaged just 3.99 yards per carry with 3+ WRs on the field last year, 29th in the NFL.

305. The RBs in Jacksonville deserve some love after posting the worst yards before contact per attempt (0.79) in the NFL by a wide margin. Call it an offensive line issue or a scheme issue, it’s a miracle their running game finished with 17 scores on the ground, a top-10 mark in the NFL.

306. Trevor Lawrence‘s contract will pay him $55(!) million per year, matching Joe Burrow‘s league-leading contract in total value and average annual salary. Lawrence has fewer total pass TDs (58) than Tom Brady (68) and Aaron Rodgers (63) in the last 3 years, two guys who completed as many passing TDs (0) in 2023 as Daffy Duck.

307. Despite the 4th most total passing attempts of any QB since being drafted and starting 50 of 51 possible regular season games, Lawrence has averaged just 19.3 passing TDs per season. Ouch.

308. Lawrence had a weird 2023 statistically tying for most 20+ yard passing TDs (11) but only had 21 TOTAL passing TDs (tied 16th).  In other words, more than 50% of his TDs were 20+ yards! He was the only QB in NFL with that extreme of a split.

309. Lawrence has a changing cast of characters at WR so he will certainly have to adjust. It is worth noting that the only QBs who had fewer expected points per dropback when under pressure: Desmond Ridder, Daniel Jones, and Ryan Tannehill. Yikes. For fantasy purposes, he will have streaming weeks but the ceiling outcomes of a top-5 QB are probably not in the cards.

310. The most successful part of the running game was what happened after contact as the team had 62 % of their rushing yards occur after contact was made, tied for 6th highest in the NFL. You can send those congratulatory flowers to Travis Etienne, who led all RBs in forced missed tackles on rush attempts making something out of nothing often.

311. Etienne‘s 340 opportunities were 3rd most among RBs and he cleaned up again against bad teams this year averaging 9.5 more fantasy points per game versus bottom-16 defenses (19.4 vs. 9.86). Since 2017, that is the 2nd largest split for a top-10 RB. Everyone plays bad teams but the ceiling outcome for Etienne and the Jaguars ability to win against lesser opponents was clear.

312. There has been talk of lessen Etienne‘s workload and part of that equation was his work as a pass blocker. I mentioned how this offensive line was a patchwork crew but Etienne stayed in to pass block on 22% of his passing plays and totaled the most total pass blocks of any RB in football.  Despite running the 4th most routes among RBs and seeing the 9th most RB targets, there was more meat left on the bone. If you add in his pass blocks, he targeted on just 12% of his pass plays on the field.

313. Tank Bigsby received some recent laughs on the My Guys episode and after posting the 2nd lowest rush success rate among rookie RBs and catching a whopping 1 of his 4 targets, Bigsby is nothing more than an insurance back to Etienne. We liked him

314. What if I told you that Jaguars QBs dropped back to pass… 705 times?! The volume was there (Evan Engram says thank you) but the WRs and their performance against zone coverages was less than stellar.

315. Christian Kirk was injured in Week 13 (he played 1% of the snaps that game) but was the WR23 up to that point. His 17-game pace was 130 targets for 86/1176/5. He led all Jacksonville WRs in targets per game, YPRR, and 1st Downs per Route Run.

316. At this point in his career, we know who Christian Kirk is. We also know from preseason that he looks to be on the outside looking in when the Jaguars run 12-personnel. In fact, Kirk had just 8 total receptions in 2-wide looks last year, fewer than TE Luke Farrell on this team! It caps his overall upside (is his ceiling WR20?) especially if we see more 2TE looks to help with protection. However, with 3+ WRs on the field, he lead the team: 25% TPRR, 2.48 YPRR

Jaguars starting skill players

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HB Travis Etienne Jr.
WR Gabe Davis
WR Brian Thomas Jr.
TE Evan Engram
TE Luke Farrell

— Nathan Jahnke (@PFF_NateJahnke) August 10, 2024

317. Brian Thomas Jr.‘s one year of production in college is frightening especially if you make the argument that he benefitted a ton from Malik Nabers shifting defenses and Jayden Daniels’ otherworldly Heisman campaign. The TPRR numbers and the “bucket” of players here are certainly also worth pausing. Since 2015, only five 1st Round WRs had a final college season below 23% TPRR: Phillip Dorsett, Henry Ruggs III, Jalen Reagor, Kadarius Toney, and now Brian Thomas Jr. Yikes. Those names might not be very encouraging to sift through but remember those players and their college & pro performances have ZERO influence on Brian Thomas Jr. Keep that mind. The stat in itself is orthogonal but it’s not a great “bucket” to be grouped in IF you only use historical buckets. (Whispers: do not solely use historical buckets)

318. Thomas Jr.’s 17 receiving TDs led the NCAA in 2023 & was the most at Power-5 school since DeVonta Smith (23) in 2020. There is more nuance to Thomas Jr.‘s route running despite the fact 41% of his production came on ‘Go’ routes per ESPN’s Jordan Reid. He impressed in preseason and is slowly emerging as a legitimate WR4 with the type of boom weeks you need in leagues that start 3WRs and at least one FLEX.

319. Gabe Davis finished as the WR40 last year going a very Gabe the Babe-esque 45/746/7 on just 81 targets. One of the biggest worries for Davis truthers is the simple fact he’s never been a true target earner throughout his career. His TPRR’s (15%, 22%, 18%, 14%) have gone down the last two seasons and on a team crowded with viable zone options (Kirk and Engram) it wouldn’t be shocking if he finishes 4th or 5th on this team in targets.

320. For all the jokes we make, consider the fact Davis has 27 receiving TDs through four years in the NFL. That is more than what Davante Adams, Julio Jones, or DeAndre Hopkins had at that point in their careers.

321. Evan Engram was the TE1 over the final six weeks of the season averaging 15.2 fantasy points per game, the same as league-winner David Njoku. His 114 Receptions were the 2nd most TE receptions in a season and Only CeeDee, Tyreek, & ARSB had more in 2023.

322. The secret sauce of Engram was when 3 WRs were on the field. Often, he was right behind Christian Kirk in the pecking order as Calvin Ridley faded into oblivion (1.46 YPRR) with more competition on the field for targets.

323. In preseason, we saw the aforementioned Luke Farrell saw a ton of action splitting reps with Engram. It is strange that this team took a 2nd round TE in last year’s draft (Brenton Strange) and yet Farrell is the one looking ahead thus far. He blocked on 71% of his snaps last year and has just 24 receptions through three seasons.

324. It would be strange (I’m gonna wear this out) for this team to go into more heavy personnel given their offensive moves (Thomas & Davis) while sitting Kirk. He carries a $24 million cap hit for 2024, the 6th highest among all WRs. 73% of Jaguars dropbacks were with 3+ WRs on the field last year (only 23rd in the NFL) although Lawrence’s deep attempts and “shot plays” were focused more in 12-personnel.

Indianapolis Colts

325. In Shane Steichen’s first year as head coach, his Colts team went 9-8 (with a chance of winning the division in Week 18) despite some of the worst injury luck of any team in the NFL. They lost their QB in Week 5, lost the 7th most total games due to injury, and their secondary was a revolving door of the injury report. Most impressive was the fact they went 6-3 in one-score games and an NFL-leading 8-0 when leading at halftime.

326. The Colts went 6-3 over the back half of the season with Gardner Minshew II at the helm but if you zoom in a bit further, it was a list of rookies and backups

327. Instead of focusing on what could’ve been with the Colts, let’s focus on what Steichen did in Year 1, or at least what he wanted to do despite a roster limited by injuries. The Colts ranked #1 in no-huddle rate (19.2%) despite losing Anthony Richardson in Week 5. They were 3rd in pace of play and 9th in plays per game inside the red zone. This was an effective offense (for the most part) considering they had one WR (Alec Pierce) essentially running windsprints all year long and their RBs were always injured as well.

328. The offensive line was the strength of the team ranking in PFF’s top-7 in both run and pass blocking grades. Maybe you’re not a fan of those grades, perhaps the best evidence of the strength of this unit (despite missing the 13th most games due to injury) was the fact they had TWO RBs (Zack Moss #3 & JTT #7) in the top-7 of RB rushing yards out of shotgun. They join the Eagles and Lions as the only 3 offensive lines to rank top-10 in both PFF’s 2023 and 2024 rankings.

329. The defense was solid against the run and despite rushing the QB with just 4 defenders 78% of the time (2nd highest rate in the NFL), they totaled the 5th most sacks in the NFL. DeForest Buckner was a key cog in their run stuffing efforts but with all the injuries in the secondary, it was a field day for opposing offenses hitting explosive plays. Part of that was missed tackles (bottom-5 in the NFL) and allowing big YAC plays. Year-to-year, those are not repeatable for a defense that invested once again in their defensive line in 1st round pick EDGE Laiatu Latu and IDL Raekwon Davis. Gus Bradley defenses are Cover-3 through and through as evidenced by a near 50% rate in 2023 per FantasyPoints.

330. I wrote an article last off-season entitled Anthony Richardson: Dynasty Range of Outcomes. Among the many outcomes, one of the points I brought up was new head coach Shane Steichen + Richardson as a  erfect fit and the Colts’ surprise in the AFC South. Even without Richardson, the Colts were on the brink of the playoffs until the final week and we saw an exciting team for fantasy. As a runner, he saw 10 carries in EACH of his full games finishing as the QB4 & QB2. That is Jalen Hurts-level of rushing upside. We know that historic fantasy seasons are on the back of rushing upside and 51.7% of Richardson’s fantasy points came via the ground, an astounding and likely unrepeatable rate.

331. Where could it go horribly wrong? Taking sacks. Richardson also ended some drives (in a horrible way) if you zoom in on his small sample size. Here were drives ending in sacks:

• Ended on 25 (punt),
• 19 (end of half)
• 25 (punt)
• 34(punt)
• 29(punt)
• 17 yard loss ended in a 43-yard FG

“Sack avoidance” as a term needs some clarity because there is a spectrum. This chart does a good job visualizing that we want our QBs to avoid negative plays that end drives.

332. The Shane Steichen-led offense ran 11-personnel on 1st downs at the 5th highest rate and RPOs on 9% of their dropbacks, the highest rate in the NFL. This is a pure-shotgun team (5th highest) mirroring what Philadelphia does. It’s hard to extrapolate from Richardson as a passer from such a small sample size but Jalen Hurt’s sophomore year (with Steichen as OC) can give us a window to see through. The volume was low as he averaged 29 pass attempts per game and 16 total pass TDs with a below-league average TD rate of 3.7%. Nevertheless, Hurts finished as the QB7 in points per game that season, just below where Richardson is being drafted.

333. In games with 50+ % snaps, Jonathan Taylor averaged 21.4 opportunities per game.  In Week 18, with the playoffs on the line, he had 30(!) carries versus Houston but they took him off the field for that one Tyler Goodson play.

334. Taylor‘s efficiency numbers overall were solid averaging 3.12 Yards After Contact per attempt and his 12 carries inside the 5 turned into 6 rushing TDs. 62% of the Colts rush attempts were zone-based (highest in the NFL) and 71% were out of shotgun (also #1). Taylor’s 54.3 rushing yards per game out of shotgun led the NFL in 2023 and he’s yards after contact per attempt (3.32) in those formations was second only to Raheem Mostert (3.53).

335. The biggest question is how can Richardson and Taylor can co-exist for fantasy? The fear is that Richardson’s rushing ability hurts Taylor and we have the data to back that up. There is a great article on the site titled– Fantasy Mythbusters: Are Dual Threat QBs a Problem for RBs?. Since 2015, only one RB has scored 15+ fantasy points per game alongside a QB who scored 100+ TOTAL rushing fantasy points: Saquon Barkley and Daniel Jones in 2018.

336. I mentioned earlier how many injuries the Colts dealt with last year. Their WRs, on the other hand, were mostly available all year long. The only teams in the NFL to have 3 WRs run 400+ routes each in 2023: CAR, SEA, and IND.

337. Michael Pittman Jr. was the picture of consistency and volume in 2023. He had ten games of 8+ receptions, the most in the NFL. That was ahead of Tyreek Hill (9) and Amon-Ra St. Brown, CeeDee Lamb, and Keenan Allen (each with 7).

338. In Week 1 with Richardson, Pitty City balled out to the tune of 11 targets for 8/97/1. However, that game might’ve been a tease for managers as he was held scoreless for the next five weeks. From Week 6-14, he was the WR7 in fantasy aveaging 15.1 fantasy points per game, 11.5 targets, 8 receptions, and 86 receiving yards per game.

339. Pittman‘s route tree has always been closer to the line of scrimmage than you would want for a player his size as only 8.7% of his targets were 20+ yards downfield. We’ve also yet to see a true spike season in the TD department as his totals through four seasons (1, 6, 4, 4) have capped his ceiling at WR15. He was the 1st read on 19 of his 20 red zone targets but only four of those were true “end-zone” targets. Between Jonathan Taylor and Anthony Richardson inside the five and the way this team annoyingly uses their gargantuan TEs, it’s hard envisioning more than seven receiving TDs.

340. Adonai Mitchell might have one of the strangest production profiles of any WR we’ve seen in a while. (Ok, Xavier Legette is even weirder.) You get the upside case and yet the lack of consistency and the awful numbers against zone coverage (1.75 YPRR) put him in the 3rd(!) percentile of WRs drafted in Rounds 1-2 over the last five years. A hilariously low TPRR also gives you a reason to

341. I’ve compared Adonai Mitchell to diet Tee Higgins, a thinner version with the contested catch and explosive play ability that keeps Higgins as a shiny object in front of dynasty managers. While the Indy offense doesn’t scream massive WR production in Year 1, there is a clear opportunity to step into a starting role as the corpse of Alec Pierce was just there for the cardio last year. Mitchell’s pre-season usage as a “big slot” was something I highlighted on the Dynasty Podcast although just 10 of his 70 targets occurred there at Texas in 2023. With just 14% of his career snaps (both at Texas & Georgia) occurring in the slot, it is a leap of faith projecting him there but not if you consider Steichen one of the more forward-thinking coaches. Mitchell is intriguing if given room to make plays in space or be brought in motion.

342. The recently injured Josh Downs is essentially… Jamison Crowder. Is that too easy of a comp? Downs joined Crowder as 1 of 32 rookie WRs with 50+ % of targets in the slot over the last decade.

343. Downs’ YPRR (1.60) was better than Crowder’s (1.32) but it all comes down to TDs. If Downs has a spike year (see Crowder in Year 2 with seven receiving TDs), he can be a useable FLEX for fantasy. Regardless, Downs is a PPR option only with his low aDOT targets and the fact only 30% of Colts’ targets went to the slot, 25th in NFL. Anthony Richardson likely will never be on the side of heavy volume so apart from Pitty City seeing 25+ % of the targets, Downs will likely top out at the 20% he saw as a rookie.

344. Run a nine route brother! Alec Pierce was willing to put in the time and effort to up his cardio. His 1,090 total snaps were the most of any WR since 2016. After being targeted on 16.3% of his routes in Year 1, that number dipped to a dangerously low 10.4% in Year 2. For context, among WRs with 30+ targets in 2023, only rookie Jalin Hyatt and Marquez Valdes-Scantling were targeted less frequently on a per-route basis. Anthony Richardson‘s presence certainly makes things a bit more intriguing but at this point in his career, Pierce perfectly fits alongside MVS as a player who can pop up 1-to-2 times a year, mostly when you least expect it.

345. Rookie WR Anthony Gould looks like the direct Josh Downs replacement as a tiny slot WR. Gould does profile as an impact performer in the return game as he ran a 4.39 albeit at 5’8″, 174 lbs. His production profile is overall lacking without a true breakout season and being undersized. He caught a bomb from Richardson in training camp in a 7-on-7 practice versus the Cardinals but apart from deep dynasty leagues or leagues that reward return yardage, keep his name on the back burner.

346. I’ve likened the Colts TE room to the Monstars in the past after they’ve assembled some truly large human beings. Kyren Granson is probably the name you are most familiar with but only due to the fact Jelani Woods missed all of 2023 with an injury. Woods, famous for posting a perfect 10.00 RAS score, recently underwent toe surgery so it looks we get another season of Mo Alie-Cox for pure intimidation purposes.

347. This team averaged just 38 passing yards per game with two TEs on the field (4th fewest) and yet, nine of their passing TDs came in these sets. In fact, they had the same number of passing TDs (9) with 3WRs on the field despite 82% of their dropbacks coming with 3 WRs on the field, the 5th highest rate in the NFL. Why you ask? Inside the red zone, this team was willing to get into bunch formations and dare teams to defend the run with their massive TEs in tow. Their TEs had six receiving TDs including four inside the 10 yard line, more than the WRs on this team.

Tennessee Titans

348. Welp, we no longer can call them the Tennessee Derrick Henrys. Sicne 2018, Henry accounted for 29% of Tennessee’s total yardage- the highest for any non-QB in the NFL in that span. Ryan Tannehill? He gone. He went 39-24 as the Titans starter (.620 win %) and led the team to the playoffs each of his first three years as the starter. But it’s not just Henry and Tannehill. It is the end of an era with Mike Vrabel being let go. He had 9+ wins each of his first four seasons but the team sputtered the last two: 7-10 and 6-11.

349. After four years as the Bengals offensive coordinator, Brian Callahan takes over after the awkward departing of Vrabel. This Titans team is young and has major question marks at almost every offensive skill position. He is the son of former NFL HC Bill Callahan, who will be coming aboard as offensive line coach. It has all the makings of a C-rate film: the father and son duo of Brian & Bill work their way from the cellar of the AFC South with Will Levis starring as QB1. Callahan’s Bengals offenses were heavy on shotgun (3rd highest) and pass rate over expectation (1st) as we can call this team “Cincy South”.

350. Sometimes it’s about who you know! New OC Nick Holz was high school teammates with Callahan and after spending a year as the passing game coordinator in Jacksonville, he stayed in the AFC South. Good luck Nick as this Titans offense will be given a major makeover post Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry. Last year, the Titans had the 6th lowest 11-personnel rate on 1st downs (36%) and the 5th lowest shotgun rate.

351. The defense was comfortable playing as much dime as possible (3rd highest rate) blanketing teams with Cover-4 looks in hopes that “the more, the merrier” would help their secondary. The Titans ranked 30th in EPA per pass attempt and 31st in opponent play success rate. Trading for former Chiefs CB L’Jarius Sneed was a big splash to give the team a No. 1 corner. New DC Dennard Wilson will need to fix a front-seven that ranked bottom-5 in pressure rate. DT Jeffrey Simmons is an All-Pro and Harold Landry came through with a double-digit sack season but it still is a weaker unit. @nd round pick T’Vondre Sweat

352. They also played slow as molasses ranking 31st in pace of play and had the fewest plays in the NFL with under five yards to go. In other words, this team was put in positions (thanks to its own doing) of having to bail out on 3rd and long. Part of that issue was the offensive line (ranked dead last in PFF’s final season grades) and they addressed it by selecting OT JC Latham at 7th overall. More on Will Levis and the offensive line in a second.

353. Derrick Henry vacates a ton of work and more importantly, a ton of yards after contact. Tennessee ranked dead last in % of yards before contact (33.5%) as the King skews a lot of statistics. The team had more success in map/gap concepts, something Callahan is familiar with from Cincinnati. However, the Titans had the highest “stuff” rate (plays tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage) of 50.9% in the NFL when there were 3+ WRs on the field last year.

354. The one thing we did see last year: deep shots. Their #1 ranked aDOT (9.3) was the 3rd highest of any team since 2020. Part of that was the lack of a legitimate option to beat zone outside of DeAndre Hopkins. Three WRs under 10% TPRR is downright scary.

355. In fantasy football, take shots on volatile situations knowing our opponents usually don’t take into a range much less account high-end outcomes like Will Levis leveling-up in 2024. Our opponents simply look at 2023 stats and assume those are prescriptive for 2024. That Tennessee system was not built around 11-personnel, or heavy shotgun usage. It didn’t lean into him as a runner (sry the Big Dog had to eat) nor did it equip Levis with the necessary weapons to be successful. I went through and watched every single Levis play if you want to add 36 minutes on to your read time of this article or you feel like your legs are starting to feel numb sitting on the toilet, press on!

I asked myself the question… "Can it work? Can Will Levis dropkick the doubters?"

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Every. Single. Will. Levis. Play. Go! 📽️ 🍌 pic.twitter.com/34fQaJh26a

— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) July 8, 2024

356. Will Levis might’ve thrown four TDs in his first professional start versus Atlanta but he totaled just four more passing TDs the rest of the way. From Week 9 on, he had the worst adjusted completion percentage among QBs and took the 4th most sacks. Among 69 rookie QBs with 8+ starts since 2000, he ranks 60th in sack rate and 51st pass success rate (37.1%), the same exact rate as rookie Josh Allen. The two have been compared in more ways than one and for Levis to take a major step forward in Year 2, he’ll need to elevate his game by simply completing what the defenses are giving him…

357. Levis struggled against zone coverage (as most young QBs do) turning in a completion percentage (62.7%) besting only Zach Wilson among 32 qualifying QBs. He threw some absolute prayers up as a league-leading 22.5% of his pass attempts versus zone coverage went 20+ air yards down field. For context, Russell Wilson ranked 2nd in that category at only 13%. 

358. Callahan’s system relies heavily on shotgun formations where Levis ranked 28th out of 34 qualified QBs in fantasy points per dropback and dead last in off target rate. However, that Tennessee system was not built around 11-personnel nor did it equip Levis with the necessary weapons to be successful. 

359. Are you feeling the pain of drafting Tony Pollard a year ago? His efficiency suddenly fell in the toilet as he totaled two fewer rushing yards than 2022, but on 59 more rushing attempts. You probably know all about his woes near the goal-line as he converted just 3 of his 16 of his inside the five carries into TDs (18.8%). Over the last five years, only 2019 Nick Chubb (13.3%) had a lower % among RBs with 15+ 5-zone attempts.

360. It wasn’t just the rushing. Since 2005, 253 different pass-catchers have had 11 or more Red Zone receptions in a season.  2023 Pollard is the ONLY ONE who failed to score a Red Zone receiving TD. That is just plain bad luck and sad.

361. Ok, one more stat to pile it on Pollard (before we look to 2024). I looked at every NFL team that averaged 28+ points per game over the last five years. These are great offenses! Pollard ranked DEAD LAST among all the RBs in fantasy points per touch. Woof.

362. Ok, Kyle you keep preaching that 2023 is descriptive and not necessarily prescriptive of 2024. What does that mean for Pollard? As a shotgun runner, there is room for him to operate in more space and to be given a chance to not carry the same load he did in 2024. 

363. If you had a chance to watch any Titans film from last year, you’ll notice how crucial Tyjae Spears to the offense especially moving chains on 3rd downs. He ranked 2nd among all RBs in total 3rd down snaps and a little fun piece of trivia: he led ALL RBs in fantasy points on that all down. While I’ve written extensively about the Myth of Third Downs in Fantasy Football, it is still a wild factoid to think about considering Tennessee ranked 30th in 3rd down conversions per game.

364. Spears became one of 14 rookie RBs since 2013 to surpass 50 receptions.

365. Spears is a fun zero RB target this year if you want to take your shot that he is the more explosive back for fantasy. We know this team wants shotgun running all day long and Spears’ 6% explosive run rate out of shotgun last year was right in line with Jahmyr Gibbs and slightly higher than James Cook, James Conner, and Saquon Barkley. He profiled the same skills in college at Tulane but the question remains: how many touches will he see? Top-24 RBs on average need to see 225+ opportunities and Spears topped out at 170 last year averaging 10 per game. He’ll need to likely another 3-4 more opportunities per game to truly break through as more than just a FLEX option. 

366. Calvin Ridley secured the bag this offseason in part with the way he destroyed the Titans in their two meetings. He had a true boom/bust season in 2023 with SIX top-10 performances and ZERO between WR10-WR25!

wHy DiD tHe TiTaNs SpEnD tHaT $ oN cAlViN rIdLeY?

oh, because he cooked them last year. pic.twitter.com/2pAkFXOEng

— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) June 24, 2024

367. Ridley sees the type of targets we care about in fantasy. He was tied for 5th MOST 20+ yard targets among all WRs (one fewer than CeeDee Lamb) and tied for the most End-Zone Targets (also with CeeDee Lamb) converting 22 of those into seven receiving TDs. Reminder: End Zone target is worth more than 2.5x a tgt between the 20s.

368. Jason discussed this concept on a Ready to Roll segment talking about how defenses change up their coverages inside the red zone. Look no further than how dominant Ridley was inside the 20 when he was targeted on 38% of his routes, inside the red zone! That was the 2nd highest in the NFL last year!

HC Brian Callahan on how he’ll deploy Calvin Ridley: “You’re looking at a very similar role that Ja’Marr [Chase] played, in terms of his ability to move around the formation, use him in motion. He’s got such a unique skill set. He’s got great quickness, he’s got great speed, he can run all the different routes.”

369. Some of DeAndre Hopkins‘ counting stats from last year look permissible when you compare them to other WRs. His 28.8% target share was tied with Puka Nacua. He had 54% of the team’s receiving TDs, 2nd among all WRs. Stats like those can be misleading when you realize that market share metrics like those are leaning on a faulty “two-legged stool” thanks to a lack of other relevant pass-catching options and a small passing pie in Tennessee.

370. Hopkins did have some impressive splits with Will Levis with six of his seven TDs coming with Bananarama. Hopkins averaged 13.1 fantasy points with Levis and 8.5 without him. Part of that was the deep connection as Hopkins ended up with the most targets of 20+ air yards in all of football. Ridley (tied for 4th most) was also an all-or-nothing deep play making the two veterans together a fun combo… if you are playing fantasy football in 2020. Expect there to be a ping-pong effect week-to-week with Levis holding the keys to unlocking this offense.

371. Is veteran Tyler Boyd an afterthought in this offense as the WR3? He knows that role quite well averaging 91 targets over the last three seasons in Cincinnati. He had as many games of 10+ fantasy points (half-point scoring) as Hollywood Brown over the last three years. In deep PPR leagues, he could have some relevant weeks in the slot.

372. Despite being taken 18th overall in the 2022 draft, Treylon Burks’ production looks quite meager with just one total receiving TD on 83 total targets in two years. You can blame the Titans for holding onto hopes of Ryan Tannehill still having a pulse, or poke fun at the fact they thought Malik Willis could be an NFL QB, or heck even point the finger at Will Levis in all his “Bananarama” glory. His 2023 campaign felt stunted with the addition of DeAndre Hopkins late but Burks posted some truly underwhelming numbers including being targeted on just 11% of his routes and an atrocious 0.68 YPRR versus zone coverage.  That TPRR number is close to a death knell as the only WR to post a top-24 season with a TPRR under 14% was Mike Williams. The dreams of his “big slot” role are likely dashed as a change of scenery could be the only thing that could save his fantasy career.

373. Chigoziem Okonkwo was supposed to be my breakout TE for 2023. The YAC play you saw as a rookie didn’t materialize in 2023 and after catching just one TD on the season, good luck if you milked any ounce of value out of Chig. This new Callahan scheme might breathe some new life and optimism but it is worth mentioning how the TE position was an afterthought in Cincinnati. In the four years Burrow was QB, Bengals TEs were bottom-5 in almost every positional metrics including target share (14.5%).

374. The one area of efficiency for this team last year was play-action, especially inside the red-zone with teams biting down hard to try and stop Derrick Henry. Levis’ target depth on play-action (11.8) is the same old story: dude chucks it deep. TE Josh Whyle is a massive guy (6’6″, 248) who is sharing some of the 1st team reps with Chig in training camp and preseason. As a run blocker he was limited as a rookie, but expect him to see more run when the team gets in close to the red zone. The former Cincinnati Bearcat has the athleticism to outproduce Chig in the TD department.

AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs

375. No big deal. The Chiefs have won the AFC West for eight straight seasons: two with Alex Smith and the last six with Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes is 30-5 in his career in the division suffering his first AFC West road loss in 2023. Ummm… remember when the Chiefs lost to Russell Wilson and company in Week 8?!?

376. Let’s give some historical perspective on this organization. In 2023, the Chiefs played their first true road playoff game since 2015. And they’ve made the playoffs every year in that span! Think about that. This team averaged 12.1 wins in that span.

377. KC games didn’t involve the shootouts like we’ve seen in the past. Only five games hit the over as the team’s points per game (21.8) hit the lowest point in the Mahomes era. The average over/under for Mahomes games since he became the team’s starter: 51.3. That figure plummeted to 45.9 in 2023.

378. This was the best defense of the Mahomes era ranking 1st in points per game allowed and pressure rate and second in total yards per game allowed.

379. Their 11.5 win total for 2024 seems par for the course for this organization. However, keep in mind that is a massive total in the betting markets as this team went 11-6 last year for reference. Looking back at the last three seasons, only 3 of 11 teams went over their win total if it sat at 11+ at Week 1’s kickoff.

380. The evolution of Mahomes and this offense is something to behold. What they did in his 2018 MVP season isn’t repeatable in 2023 with both their personnel (Tyreek Hill) and the NFL changing how it schemes. Despite lining up in shotgun on 64% of 1st downs (4th highest rate), it was not a bomb it deep strategy. Here is the average depth of target in Mahomes’ career along with the 20+ yard TDs declining year-over-year:

381. The splits for Mahomes were quiet pronounced:

• Weeks 1-9: 19.9 fppg (QB3), top-12 finishes in 7 of 9 starts & a 17-game pace of 4614/32
• Week 10 on: 16.4 fppg (QB18), ONE top-12 finish in seven starts & a 17-game pace of 4228/24

382. Was 2023 the worst group of WRs Mahomes has ever worked with? 6.6% of Mahomes’ throws were dropped, the highest rate of his career. That rate tied the Browns for the highest in the league but the discrepancy in those two teams’ targets overall were night and day. The Chiefs had the lowest rate of “off-target” throws (13.5%) while the Browns had the highest (22.11%). Wild.

383. If there is a statistical anomaly to bring up with Mahomes, it is the wild efficiency his receivers had after the catch. Mahomes’ completed air yards per completion (4.1) is tied for the lowest of any NFL team since 2020. The lowest. However, the Chiefs yards after catch per completion (6.4) was tied for the 6th highest of any team in that span. That is the largest discrepancy (+2.3) between those two statistics of any team in that set. For context, the average was -0.67 and the next closest team (weirdly enough the 2023 Broncos) was at +1.7.

384. So what does this mean Kyle?!?! They were the only team in the NFL to have 5 players force 8 or more missed tackles on receptions and if you bump that number down to seven, they had seven players! The next closest team (Philadelphia) had just five. Is it a scheme thing? Is that a repeatable trait year over year? Looking back at the last five years, forced missed tackle rate (team-wise) is one of the least sticky year-to-year statistics to maintain. However, if we simply look at how this team scored, you can lean into a return to dominance at 25+ points scored per game.

385. The gradual rise in Isiah Pacheco’s opportunities was a sight to behold for a Chiefs team that relied on him more than you would imagine. In the second half of the regular season, he averaged 20.4 opportunities as the RB4 in fantasy. In the playoffs with Jerick McKinnon out, he skyrocketed to 23.5 per game. It’s the biggest workload since Kareem Hunt for any KC RB in the Patrick Mahomes era. By the way, this dude is a perfect 7-0 in the playoffs in his career as the 1st RB in NFL history to start & win 2 Super Bowl titles in his 1st 2 seasons.

386. This Kansas City offense is born to score points with the 6th most plays per game inside the 10 yard line in 2023. The league average for rushing TDs inside the 10 yard line was every 3.55 carries. Pacheco converted just five TDs in that 10-zone but down the stretch, he was a machine. From Weeks 10-18, only Kyren Williams averaged more fantasy points per game in the red zone than Pacheco.

387. Pacheco is a great pass-catcher… already! 49 targets last year led to 44 receptions leading qualifying RBs in catch rate at 90%. HC Andy Reid on which RB will fill the 3rd-down role, with Jerick McKinnon gone: “[Isiah Pacheco]’s ready to be able to do all that. He’s good with the protections, he’s good with the technique and fundamentals, he can run all the routes, he’s got great hands.”

388. What would a breakout look like for Pacheco in Year 3? Only 25.2 years old, he is set up with a bell Cow role on a great offense. All three Ballers have him for 280+ touches in our UDK projections. Here are the Year 3 RBs who saw 280+ touches over the last decade. A top-10 outcomes looks well within the realm of possibilities if he hits that volume mark.

389. Rashee Rice slowly became the Chiefs’ primary receiving option. From Week 12 on, he was the WR9 averaging 14.9 fantasy points per game, 9.3 targets, 7.2 receptions, and 86 receiving yards per game. 

390. Rice excelled in the areas we want for WRs in the modern NFL. His 2.91 YPRR versus zone coverage tied for the 4th highest in the NFL. 70% of Rice’s yardage came after the catch showcasing some insane tackle-breaking ability for a WR. When you combine those two abilities with defenses relentless Cover-4 looks, it makes sense that the rookie would emerge from a mostly uninspiring group of KC pass-catchers. 

391. He slowly emerged from the summer without a suspension from the NFL and those that made the bet in Best Ball, likely have a top-15 WR in their bag. In pre-season, he was the clear No. 1 in 2-wide sets. Rice crushed there (27.8% TPRR, 2.84 YPRR) right ahead of Travis Kelce (26.7% TPRR, 2.56 YPRR). The fact that you can get him as your WR4 feels like free money in redraft leagues.

392. Apart from running the fastest 40-time ever, Xavier Worthy‘s usage throughout college was quite varied with 39% of his targets in 2022 going for 20+ air yards but then reversing course to just 19.3% in 2023. Kansas City traded up in the 1st round to secure the speedster who turned four touches into 73 total yards and a score in Week 2 of the preseason.

393. The Chiefs currently roster two of the four 1st round WRs under 180 pounds over the last decade: Marquise Brown, Jordan Addison & DeVonta Smith… and now, 1st round pick Xavier Worthy. With 12 TDs as freshman, Worthy had the youngest Breakout age (18.4) among the 2024 class.

394. However, Worthy also slowly regressed in some of his per-route metrics as his competition for targets at Texas looked different in his final year with three more NFL draft picks among the pass-catchers: Adonai Mitchell, Jordan Whittington, and Ja’Tavion Sanders. This list is by no means a death sentence but merely a chance to point out that Worthy peaked early in college.

395. The NFL loves speed and as Ryan DeVaney highlighted in Worthy’s Rookie Profile, there is a spectrum to view him in. Is he Jaylen Waddle or John Ross 2.0? He ranks 2nd in this class in career team receiving yards market share, showing that is he more than a speed merchant. In pre-season, it was clear defenders needed to pay attention.

396. Entering 6th year in NFL, Marquise Brown is only 27 years old. The former 1st rounder signed a one-year deal worth $7 million and there are some red flags to his game. Consider the lack of ceiling: he has as many 10+ fantasy point games as Tyler Boyd over the last 3 years. Yikes, that is not screaming upside to me!

397. I’ve mentioned this multiple times on multiple podcasts… Brown wasn’t great versus ZONE coverage last year coming in at 1.08 YPRR. For context, he are the cast of characters he sat between for that metric:

The Chiefs rotate through their WRs more than you’d like reminding us that fantasy football and real life football doesn’t always overlap. With his unfortunate pre-season injury, Brown looks like someone who could start the year slowly and be part of a rotation with the likes of Justin Watson and Skyy Moore to begin the year.

398. Maybe this visual representation will give you a better picture of the misplaced hope the fantasy community has in Mahomes WRs. Three KC WRs were being drafted in the top-40: a true shell game. Here’s how those WR2s & WR3s have performed in the Mahomes era recognizing Tyreek Hill was the alpha and Travis Kelce is essential.

399. “Who’s afraid of little old me?” Apparently the Chiefs aren’t as Travis Kelce signed a 2-year, $34.25 million extension this off-season. He will be playing his age 35 season and is coming off career lows in a number of categories:

• 10.6 Yards per Reception- lowest of his career
• 6.9 aDOT- tied for lowest since 2016
• 5 Receiving TDs- tied for lowest since 2016

400. Part of the downturn in production was Kansas City’s clear and obvious plan to rest Kelce for their Super Bowl run. His playoff  target shares (29%, 31%, 29%, 24%) were evidence that this man is not done by any means. Spoiler alert: the plan worked.

401. Kelce’s dominance as a zone buster seems to be prolonging his career. He ranked #1 among all TEs in zone YPRR (2.34) with 81 of his 121 targets occurred there. The best way to view him is as a WR. Here are some notable WR names and where Kelce ranked against zone.

480. The Chargers have 395 vacated targets heading into the season. That is most of any team over the last five years.

481. My biggest worry for Ladd McConkey is that he might be a better NFL player than fantasy contributor. As Betz detailed in his Rookie Profile, he is the ultimate tape versus analytics prospect. He ran just 17 routes per game in his career and his 2023 film has just 9 games and 148 routes to choose from. 53% of his career YAC came from screens which is the same rate as former 1st round WR Kadarius Toney…

482. There are not too many early draft capital WRs who didn’t “breakout” in college. We set the bar at a 20% dominator rating (20% of team’s receiving yards + TDs) and McConkey is just below that threshold at 19.9%.

483. However, he tore up zone coverage (4.27 YPRR) making him a direct Keenan Allen replacement in this offense. Everything we’ve heard in preseason is that he is locked into a starting role as a slot WR who can also kick out and play outside. He saw a healthy amount of intermediate targets at Georgia so don’t typecast him as a small slot WR only. The acceleration after the catch is special so in full PPR leagues, McConkey could certainly fight his was towards being an every week FLEX.

484. McConkey is now the 2nd highest drafted (8.04) 2nd round rookie WR in fantasy history behind only 2016’s Sterling Shepard (8.01).

485. Joshua Palmer missed seven games last year due to injury but over the last two seasons, he averaged 37 routes per game. For context, Tyreek Hill has averaged 31 per game in his career. What has Palmer done with the opportunity? He has just five top-24 performances in 43 games played.

486. Palmer is still only 24 years old and enters a contract year with his rookie deal set to expire. He’s coming off a career-best 1.71 yards per route run in year three, so perhaps there’s some untapped potential here. In 21 career games with Justin Herbert where he’s seen 5+ targets in a game, he’s averaged 12.8 PPR points per game.

487. It’s not pretty folks especially if you invested the 1.05 on Quentin Johnston in your rookie drafts last year. Let’s give some historical context to paint the picture. Among 42 1st Round Rookie WRs since 2014, he ranked 39th in TPRR (13.7%), 38th in YPRR (0.88), and 33rd in target share (10.9%). His 0.72 YPRR vs zone coverage was horrifically bad and the worst among 1st round WRs.

488. Is there hope for Quge? A new coaching regime in Los Angeles does add another element of mystery but Greg Roman’s systems aren’t exactly known for supporting multiple high-end WRs for fantasy. Here are a few WRs who flopped in Year 1 on a number of fronts after being selected in the first two rounds. Their Year 2 breakouts were out of nowhere boosted by TDs. Perhaps Quge can overcome historically bad efficiency numbers (and those drops) to put up a Mike Williams-esque season.

489. Speaking of D.J. Chark, he is now on his fourth team in four years: JAX, DET, CAR, and now LAC. He started out with some meaningful fantasy games including an 11-target game in Week 3 where he finished 4/86/1 as the WR12 on the week. However, after that game, he averaged just 4.2 targets the rest of the way. He is a classic “better-in-best-ball” player who could have some spike weeks throughout the year. His two top-12 performances on the year were as many as D.K. Metcalf!

490. The Chargers totaled the 5th most passing yards per game (201.6) with 3+ WRs on the field. Despite Keenan Allen commanding so many targets from the slot, 79% of their TDs went to non-slot options making their outside WRs likely undervalued in fantasy formats.

491. This team did run more 2TE sets than you might’ve realized last year. The Chargers sported 2 TEs on 29% of their 1st downs, highest than any Greg Roman year in Baltimore. However, his teams relied heavily on 21 and 22 personnel (aka fullbacks) while ranking 30th (SF), 29th (BUF), and 32nd (BAL) in 11-personnel rates.

492. The team let Gerald Everett walk and invested in Big Montana (Will Dissly) and former 1st round pick Hayden Hurst. At this point, Hurst is just a fun factoid that he was taken in the 1st round by the Ravens ahead of teammates Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews that year. Both are going to add an element in the running game that was sorely missed in 2023. Dissly ranked 3rd in PFF’s pass blocking grades while Hurst came in 13th. Dissly was PFF’s 2nd highest graded run blocker in zoner schemes.

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys

493. Despite having just one win difference between their records, the NFC East sported the largest point differential (189 pts) between 1st (DAL: +194) & 2nd place (PHI: +5) teams in NFL. In fact, that was the largest between any 1st & 2nd place since the 2019 Ravens and Lamar’s MVP year. 

494. The team shifted into a new direction following their Week 7 bye

495. The biggest difference was throwing more and Dak‘s work inside the red zone. He led the NFL in red zone points thanks to a whopping 67 end-zone passing attempts. His previous career high was 45.

496. They ranked 4th in pass rate over expectation with 80% of their dropbacks having 3+ WRs on the field. However, their 4th pass catching option was a relative zero for most of the year with the recently retired Michael Gallup contributing just 3 games of fantasy relevance and the departed Tony Pollard scoring as many receiving TDs as you and I (zero). For all of Dallas’ offensive success, there is room for more names to step up in 2024.

497. Thus far, the Cowboys have spent an underwhelming $13 million total during free agency. They handed out a grand total of $9.28 million in guarantees, by far the lowest in the NFL. The average in practical guaranteed money handed out during the 2024 free agency process among all 32 teams was roughly $65 million per Spotrac.

498. Dan Quinn‘s exit does raise some questions if this team will be able to replicate much of their defensive success. They ranked 1st in pressure rate and 4th in turnover rate while playing the 3rd highest rate of man coverage in the NFL. Gambling tactics on defense are doable if you have the right personnel but year-to-year, turnover rates are not as sticky as we want them to be. Highly recommend Jennifer Eakins’ Do Defenses Repeat FF Performances? if you want a deeper dive on the subject.

499. The defense’s memorable season was highlighted by CB DaRon Bland‘s record 5 Pick-Sixes. Bland was recently sidelined with a stress fracture in his foot likely missing 6-8 weeks. Since 2010, we’ve had five players hit 9 INTs in a season: Tim Jennings (CHI), J.C. Jackson (NE), Xavien Howard (MIA), Trevon Diggs (DAL) and Bland . The year after? Those CBs totaled 4,  8,  5 , and 3 INTs.

500. Dallas threw the ball early and often in games with the 5th highest neutral pass rate in 1st halves (65%). This was a revelation from the intel we were fed after Kellen Moore left town and Mike McCarthy came out sharing how they wanted to run the ball more. The team had the 3rd most plays while leading by more than a TD and yet their pass rate remained above 55%. McCarthy figured out quickly that the keys to this team should be handed over to its franchise QB…

501. Despite finishing as QB3, it wasn’t until Week 6 that Dak Prescott morphed into a league winner:

Which Dak are we going to get to start the 2024 season? pic.twitter.com/yEdwRFbQDe

— Fantasy Footballers (@TheFFBallers) July 31, 2024

502. Dak showed up big in big games. The highs were high with SEVEN top-3 finishes and he ranked #1 in PFF’s “Big Time Throws” Metric, which measures the efficiency of a pass with “excellent ball location & timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window”. He also totaled the most passing yards under pressure and the highest completion percentage under pressure.

503. Dak‘s splits were quite obvious excelling at home and against bad defenses: +6.66 fantasy points against bottom-16 defenses and +9.64 fantasy points at home. This is something to pay attention to not only for DFS purposes but if you have pivot options or find yourself choosing between a streaming option.

504. Dak outside the pocket was a menace with a 81.6% adjusted completion percentage (3rd best) and the 6th highest fantasy points per dropback. Only 17% of his fantasy points occurred there suggesting this is a repeatable performance when the team rolls him out especially on bootlegs. He doesn’t scramble as much as you’d want but 14.5 yards per game on scrambles is enough to give him a safe weekly floor.

505. One of the issues was the inability to run the ball in heavy sets. For a team that ranked #1 in scoring, Dallas had only five rushing TDs with two or fewer WRs on the field, the same as the Broncos. The team also averaged just 50 passing yards per game with 2+ TEs on the field.

506. The current depth chart plus the offense makes “Dallas RB” one of the biggest conundrums heading into September. Tony Pollard is vacating 54% of the carries and 11% of the targets but it is the missed opportunities he had in 2023 that are most appealing. His 16 carries inside the 5 were tied for 7th most in the NFL but it led to just 3(!) rushing TDs. That 18.8% success rate inside the 5 is the 2nd worst of any RB over the last five years. “Bunny TDs” are what fantasy managers are chasing for 2024.

507. In New England last year, Ezekiel Elliott averaged just 36% of the snaps through Week 12 behind Rhamondre Stevenson. However, from Week 13 on (coinciding with Stevenson’s injury), he was the RB9(!) in fantasy on the back of pure volume: 21.3 opportunities per game. It wasn’t pretty as he averaged 3.0 yards per carry in that span but it also wasn’t on the back of TDs: he had just one carry inside the five in that span.

508. It is not exactly trending in the right direction as Elliott’s yards per carry, fantasy points per game, rushing yards over expected per attempt and success rate have all declined in three straight seasons.

509. It’s time to refresh the hard drive of your brain and remember how dominant Elliott was in Dallas. Here were his fantasy finishes for his seven seasons as a Cowboy: RB2, 10, 5, 4, 11, 6, and 19. In fact, using our Career Snapshot Tool, you can view how he stacks up against some of the other great fantasy RBs over the last decade. He ranks #1 in total points scored, #1 in top-12 seasons, and #3 in points scored per season behind only CMC and Alvin Kamara.

510. Could Zeke fall into the end zone 6-7 times and pay off as an RB2/FLEX? Consider the offense and consider how inefficient his former running-mate Pollard was last year. He scored the lowest fantasy points per touch for an RB on any NFL team that averaged 28+ points per game over the last five years.

511. Rico Dowdle, the former UDFA, is 26 years old entering Year 5 in the NFL. He ranked 9th among all RBs in Yards Created per Touch (via PlayerProfiler) and despite never seeing enough snaps, he still managed four games of double-digit fantasy points. That was the same number as Tyjae Spears, who played almost 300 more snaps!

If you are box score watching, this is Rico Dowdle's "best game" of his career.

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Week 10 vs NYG 📽️- 12/79/1

It needs context (considering half these carries Dallas was up 42-7 with Cooper Rush at QB) so here we go… 👇 pic.twitter.com/JTPh0M39Q0

— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) August 2, 2024

512. Dowdle is an apt pass-catcher ranking top-10 among qualified backs in both yards per reception (8.5) and yards per route run (1.35).  Over the past 5 years, 8.5 teams per year did not have a top-24 RB in ADP. Yet, an average of FIVE RBs from those teams finished within the top 24. The secret sauce for those that breakthrough? They are part of good offenses. Consider Dowdle more than a sleeper for 2024. He was Mike’s Bold Prediction at the Live Show.

513. As Betz pointed out in his monster 32 Storylines to Monitor in Training Camp article, “according to Vegas lines, the Cowboys are eighth in projected points, which means there’s double digit TD upside if we can peg the Cowboys’ RB1 inside the red zone“. Dallas was #1 in red zone plays per game last season so even a small decline would still give ample opportunity for one or both RBs to pay off their ADP.

514. How good was CeeDee Lamb? He put a line of 135/1749/12… the only other WR in NFL history to match all 3 of those numbers: 2021 Cooper Kupp. That’s it. Any other year Lamb would win Offensive Player of the Year. He finally got paid like it at the end of a long off-season.

515. Lamb was lapping the field after their Week 8 bye. In that span, he averaged 23.9 fppg… next closest? Tyreek/Amon-Ra at 17.4. He averaged 12.6 targets, 116 rec yards, and ONE TD per game in that span.

516. Lamb crushed and dominate in 3WR sets, where it is generally harder for receivers to earn targets. His 108 receptions were the most in the NFL and he had just 145 fewer receiving yards than the next three Cowboys combined on this roster in those sets.

517. What do we expect in 2024 for Lamb? Over the last decade, we’ve had 10 different 1st round WRs see 125+ targets in Year 5. Those WRs averaged 18.2 PPR points per game, which is a top-5 annual mark for WRs. Now imagine if Lamb sees 150+ targets once again which feels like his floor if he is healthy.

519. The question for us? What is the percentage chance that was his greatest fantasy season of his career? While that might be an unfair question to ask, Antonio Brown might be the best way to reveal Lamb‘s floor. AB repeated as the WR1 in 2014 & 2015 and then finished as a top-5 guy for each of the next three seasons. Lamb’s trajectory is firmly in “prime” territory according to our Dynasty Lifecycles in the Dynasty Pass.

520. It was a slow start but from Week 6 on (coinciding with Dak’s run), Brandin Cooks was the WR22 in fantasy averaging 11.2 points per game… just ahead of Davante Adams in that span. His seven finishes inside the top-24 over the final 12 games were largely boosted by his eight TDs. He had eight games without a TD last year: 26 fantasy points scored… TOTAL! Yikes.

521. However, Cooks was the “1st Read” on ALL 12 of his red zone targets. 11 of those 12 were end-zone targets where he was 1-on-1. Often teams were doubling CeeDee or shifting focus there and he caught 6 of those 12 end zone targets for TDs.

522. Jalen Tolbert has already been in the league for two years and has done next to nothing. For reference, through two seasons, he’s at 0.82 yards per route run for his career. The guys that have come back from that are basically Davante Adams and no one else. Does he have opportunity? Yes. Will it matter for fantasy? Eh, nah.

523. Jake “Turd” Ferguson broke out in his sophomore season (102 targets for 71/761/5) finishing as the TE8 on a high-powered Cowboys offense. He led all TEs in red zone targets (25) but the five TDs left something to be desired. TEs over the last five years averaged a TD every 3.4 red zone targets making Turd Ferg’s TD expectation more like 7.34 TDs. For reference, all five of his TDs came in the red zone.

524. Ferguson was more versatile than you might realize running the 3rd most routes among all TEs and ranking 6th in YAC.

525. However, it was involvement as Dallas’ “other” slot WR that is worth noting. Dallas led the NFL in slot receiving yards and slot TDs thanks to CeeDee Lamb‘s other-worldly season. However, Ferguson was no slouch in that area. He registered the 3rd highest YPRR in the slot among TEs trailing only George Kittle and Sam LaPorta. For context, noted slot maven Keenan Allen had a slot YPRR of just 1.79.

526. Ferguson was 2nd on the Cowboys in total targets and with no significant pass-catchers added this off-season, it shouldn’t surprise you if Ferguson repeats that feat again and instead hits the 7+ TD range. The WRs on this roster not named Lamb & Cooks have combined for 47 total receptions over the last three years.

Philadelphia Eagles

527. I poked at the Eagles earlier as this team vastly overachieved last year going 8-3 in one-score games.  If you look at 2023 win expectation (factoring in point differential), the Cowboys (12.9 wins) and Eagles (8.6 wins) were not even close. 

528. From Week 13 on, the Eagles slipped from 3rd in points per game to 20th. The final 6 game stretch was a tailspin especially inside the 10-zone.

529. Defenses ran more man looks (up from 25.7% to 31.6%) including the highest rate (9.1%) of Cover-0 in the NFL in that span. The 1-high safety looks (up from 46.6% to 54.5%) transformed the offense into a team that tied the Giants in fantasy points per dropback (0.38) in that span against a single safety. The lack of creativity and nosedive in the final two months of the season led to Brian Johnson’s firing.

530. Since becoming the starter at the end of 2020, Jalen Hurts is averaging 10+ fantasy points per game just as a runner. For context, CMC is averaging 11.5 fantasy points per game as a runner in that span. Over the last two seasons, he has 87 red zone rush attempts! He already ranks 5th ALL-TIME in rushing TDs by a QB in just 62 career games.

531. The value of the tush push (as Warren Sharp points out). As he mentions, the EPA from Hurts’ 1-yard sneaks the 53.3 EPA from Hurts 1-yard sneaks is higher than every other NFL team’s rushing EPA the last three years. It is more than a cheat code. There is widespread worry about Jason Kelce’s departure but new center Cam Jurgens (last year’s starting guard) was a college center at Nebraska and recent second round pick. This play isn’t going to fall apart by any means so don’t factor that into whatever emotional

530. They finished with the 3rd highest turnover rate in the NFL-15.3% of their drives! Now for the part where I tell you… it doesn’t matter! Looking at year-to-year stickiness for QB stats, the coefficient on interceptions is basically zero (funnily enough, it’s negative). This means on average a previous year’s interceptions are of no use (or even have a negative relationship) in predicting this year’s interception rate.

533. After one year with the Chargers, Kellen Moore moves onto Philadelphia after Brian Johnson’s one-year stint fell flat. However, recent news came out that Nick Sirianni was calling plays last year. Regardless, Jalen Hurts is pretty familiar with the territory. Going back to his freshman year at Alabama, he’s had a new play-caller every single year except one.

534. Kellen Moore‘s offensive ranks in pace of play as an OC (DAL & LAC): 1st, 1st, 2nd, 4th, and 4th. With Philly ranking 17th in that category a year ago, you can expect a major change and hopeful uptick (17th in 2023) from their 17th rank of 2023. The Eagles ranked 2nd in no-huddle and yet it didn’t matter. Their lack of aggressiveness on 2-point conversions (4.1%) was a stark contrast

535. Expect more plays under center which (in theory) should give more play-action looks and sustain some of their rushing efficiency. It is worth noting how little experience this Eagles team had in non-shotgun formations with just 27 of Jalen Hurts’ 622 dropbacks (4.3%) coming under-center or in pistol formation in 2023. Saquon Barkley had just nine total carries in pistol formation the last two years in New York but comparing the scheme fit and offensive line upgrade from New York to Philadelphia is like asking who would you rather have as an Avenger: Hawkeye or Hulk?

536. Barkley balled out against these Eagles last year (RB8 & RB5) giving more credence to the “that guy killed us!” narrative. He is still fluid as a pass-catcher with four receiving TDs and a 19% TPRR, which is solid for an RB. He was asked to pass block on the 4th most pass plays (100) on 23.6% of his passing plays on the field.  Last year with LAC, Kellen Moore employed Ekeler as a regular extension of the offense with a similar TPRR (19.8%) as Barkley while asking him to pass block on just 13.4% of his plays. Eagles RBs have roller-coastered with targets in the Hurts era going from 23 % in 2021 to 12 % in 2022 and upwards to 18% last year.

537. Barkley goes from the 30th ranked unit (according to PFF) to a top-5 group in Philadelphia. We know that offensive line upgrades can have added value for RBs for fantasy. According to Sam DiSorbo’s study, 92% of teams with an O-line rating of 0.5 or higher (better than average) average more expected fantasy rush points than average. With a good line, there is a near guarantee that the back behind them will have ample opportunity to produce. The ceiling might be lowered but Barkley should have enough 10-zone opportunities stepping into 26 of D’Andre Swift‘s vacated ones.

538. The Eagles put a “man in motion” on just 10.9% of their plays in 2023, by far the lowest rate in the NFL. On the other hand, Moore’s Chargers ranked 7th at 27% and their overall pre-snap motion rate (61.2%) also ranked 7th. To put this into perspective, A.J. Brown, who ranked 5th overall in receiving yards (1,456), had fewer receiving yards (221) on plays with pre-snap motion than Jonnu Smith (224). Woof.

539. Brown is a straight mauler ranking 8th in YPPR versus man and 14th in zone. He was 1 of 6 WRs to finish top-15 in both: Tyreek Hill, Nico Collins, Brandon Aiyuk, Justin Jefferson, Mike Evans and Brown. It showed inside the red zone as teams lean further into 1-on-1 looks. Of his 18 total red zone targets, 17 of them were designed “1st read” targets. This is one area Brown completely dwarfed DeVonta Smith.

540. The pieces are there for Philadelphia to respond and Moore’s scheme emphasizes downfield concepts including peppering targets to the slot with CeeDee Lamb in Dallas and Keenan Allen last year. Both A.J. Brown (24%) and DeVonta Smith (31%) were underutilized in that area last year despite Philadelphia lining up in shotgun on 70% of their 1st downs, highest rate in the NFL.

541. Count me a DeVonta truther this year as his success in the slot back in college makes logical sense for me to see an increase in usage there. His 5.54 YPRR in the slot during his Heisman year at Alabama feels like you were playing Madden on easy mode. I’ve been on the case including daily finding news from beat writers, quotes from the Eagles secondary, quotes from Kellen Moore, and DeVonta himself saying he watched a ton of CeeDee Lamb this off-season as he preps for his first with Moore as OC.

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542. The Eagles saw Cover-4 looks (quarters) on 23% of their dropbacks last year, by far the highest rate in the NFL. There was a clear alpha against that defense… Smith.

543. Brown ranked 6th in 1st Read Target % (36.6%), 8th in YPRR (2.77), and 9th in expected fantasy points per game. Those numbers don’t tell the full story of the season as after Phill’s Week 10 bye: he scored just one TD despite averaging 9.3 targets per game.

544. Smith went on a tear from Weeks 8-13, he was the WR7 averaging 17 fantasy points per game, 90 receiving yards, and 0.8 TDs.

545. Over the last 2 years, Brown & Smith have played 33 regular season games together

• 24% of the time BOTH hit 13+ fantasy points
• 45% of the time BOTH hit 10+ fantasy points
• 48% of the time ONE scored <7 fantasy points

546. Can we emotionally get through discussing the man known as Jahan Dotson? The 1st round draft capital and hope coming into 2023 still carries wounds, especially for dynasty managers like myself who wanted him to take the next step. Through Year 1, Dotson overachieved in the TD department (7) but his underlying metrics (16.2 % TPRR, 1.40 YPRR) weren’t screaming “breakout”. However, if you focused on the final five games of the season, his numbers (20.3%, 2.18) led the team and ran ahead of teammate Terry McLaurin.

547. How did 2023 go, you ask? Welp, Dotson got in his cardio running a whopping 635 routes, 5th most in the NFL and … wait for it… the 4th most for a sophomore WR over the last decade. He was out on the field and if you tried starting Dotson at any point during the year, you likely were lost trying to decipher if there was a rhyme or reason behind his vanishing acts. His 0.82 YPRR is in the bottom 16th percentile of 2nd year WRs and he was equally poor against both man and zone coverage. 

548. Wait, so should we full-on thrown Dotson off the cliff Thanos style like on the planet Vormir? Blame Sam Howell? Take your anger and direct it at Eric Bieniemy? Ok, those aren’t rational thoughts based on the mounting data we have two years in the NFL. He’s slightly above the 1.00 YPRR line I referenced earlier with Davante Adams and the only other name of relevance you can find in this realm is Zay Jones (0.96). As “dynasty WR insurance”, he has now crossed over to a place that only hopes in injuries. The WR3 in Philadelphia routinely has been not valuable for fantasy purposes. Rookie Johnny Wilson (6’6″) was receiving some looks in the slot as well.

549. After Zach Ertz left Philly years ago, we all thought Goedert would be the next great fantasy TE. In 2023, Dallas Goedert scored more than seven fantasy points (in half point leagues) just FOUR total times in 14 games. At the end of drafts, he carries a name to plug your TE position but the upside seems limited.

550. Goedert was not far behind Smith when 3 WRs were on the field but his 1.12 YPRR was basically a catch-and-fall down type of guy.

In the past, Goedert’s value came from gaining slot snaps as a hybrid WR/TE. However, he averaged fewer yards per reception in the slot than Darren Waller and was targeted on just 15.7% of slot routes. With Brown and Smith getting added reps here in slot, Goedert’s days as a top-5 guy are likely out of reach.

New York Giants

551. The Giants started out 1-5 and finished a respectable 5-6 over final 11 games including wins against Green Bay and Philadelphia in Week 18. Never forget the Giants finished Week 8 OT loss versus the Jets with -9 total net passing yards!

552. Their 2023 had three different QBs start 5+ games in the season. As a team, they ranked 30th in 3rd down conversation rate and 31st in red zone TD rate. What a train wreck as the Giants went into last year thinking “oh we got this on lock down.” Daniel Jones‘ $82 million guaranteed looks like lighting a bag of poop on fire.

553. The Giants have been horrific at the beginning of games during the Brian Daboll era. Here is their ranking in 1st quarter points scored:

• 2021- 32nd
• 2022- 28th
• 2023- 32nd

Drives sputtered as they went “3-and-out” on 42% of drives, 31st in the NFL.

554. The saving grace for this team was its aggressive defense. They were #1 in turnover differential after running the 2nd highest rate of man coverage under Wink Martindale. There is a new DC (Shane Bowen) who will have the added benefit of adding All-Pro Brian Burns. He moves differently than almost any other rusher in the NFL

555. The offensive line was manhandled in 1-on-1 situations last year. They ranked 30th in PFF’s end of season rankings and it was clearly evident in man/gap scheme runs: Saquon Barkley ranked 49th of 49 qualifying RBs in success rate in man/gap schemes.

556. Sacks were the name of the game for New York. According to FantasyPoints’ Data Suite, they led the NFL in QB-responsible sacks (14) while also avoiding the most sacks (43). “It could’ve been worse…” the Giants fan friend of yours might say. The Giants were pressured on 303 total dropbacks. For perspective, the Dolphins had less than half that number (149) despite their offensive line missing the 4th most games due to injury. This is as much a scheme problem as a QB problem.

557. DeVito‘s agent will probably want to market this next stat when it’s time for a new contract: Cutlets had the highest adjusted completion percentage (75.8%) of any QB when under pressure. Sounds awesome, right? Oh, but he also had the lowest aDOT (5.1) of any QB under pressure. 37% of DeVito pressures turned into a sack, the highest rate in the league. You gotta hand it to him… the dude made his money through marketing for a hot minute.

558. Who ranked 2nd in highest pressure to sack rate in the NFL? Daniel Jones. Yes, this is a giant problem. The pun was intended. Everything was intended. Somehow Jones took 30(!) sacks in just six games played. The only other QB to get tossed in the dirt that often in that few of games: backup QB Mike Rae of the 1978 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. You remember Mike, his 48% completion rate, and 37 sacks, right?

559. Jones‘ value as a fantasy performer was always due to his scrambling ability. Last year, 20 scrambles in 6 games equated to 160 rushing yards, one yard fewer than Kyler Murray. Inside the pocket? He’s been bottom-5 each of the last three years in fantasy points per dropback.

560. The Giants offense resembled the famed “Little Giants” as Jones averaged just 5.7 yards per attempt, besting only Bryce Young among starters. Jones was actually worst against zone among the three Giants QBs at 0.22 fantasy points per dropback. In fact, Tyrod was the most fantasy friendly completing 76% of his passes versus zone.

561. Daboll offenses have functioned mostly in 3WR sets with the 5th fewest passing yards with 2 or fewer WRs on the field. With Darren Waller‘s departure, expect much of the same with the TE depth chart feeling rather thin.

562. After accounting for 30% of the team’s total yardage in his 14 games played, Saquon’s departure is going to be felt on a number of levels. That was the highest rate in the NFL so excuse me if Devin Singletary doesn’t exactly scream excitement. Touchdowns, you ask? Saquon scored 40% of the team’s TDs, a mark surpassed only by Breece Hall‘s 50(!) percent.

563. Singletary morphed into the Texans’ workhorse back, averaging 19.6 opportunities per game from Week 9 on, making Houston’s one-year $3 million investment look like a steal and Dameon Pierce an afterthought. At 5’7” and 203 pounds, he ever projected to be an every down back but here we are. Here are the top-10 fantasy seasons over the last decade of players 5’7″ or shorter.

564. What kind of fantasy season should we expect from Singletary? The Giants averaged 88 rushing yards per game with 3+ WRs on the field (4th highest in the NFL) thanks to a 7% explosive rush rate (7th highest in the NFL). Saquon’s big moments last year (especially against the Eagles) were on big plays and consistency as a pass-catcher. If Singletary can maintain his chunk plays (10 runs of 15+ yards) and see 50+ targets, he can certainly work his way into RB2 territory even if the Giants are a bottom tier offense.

565. There are few noteworthy RBs in NFL history who entered the league at age 24+ like Tyrone Tracy Jr. There is some intrigue here as the former college WR at Iowa converted to RB at Purdue. Before you have visions of Antonio Gibson, Tracy is extremely old (24) playing 6(!) total seasons in college and his Day 3 draft capital says he will have a hard time carving out a valuable role for fantasy.While names like Andre Ellington and James Starks might have a soft place in your heart, I’ll spare you the long list of guys who contributed diddly squat to an NFL roster since 2000. Tracy is still a fun stash in dynasty given his hybrid skills and a relatively easy depth chart to climb.

566. The Giants did not have an alpha WR on the roster in 2023. They failed to have a WR surpass 80 targets on the season and were the only NFL team without a single pass-catcher to surpass 21% targets per route run in 2023. Malik Nabers immediately becomes a target hog although this selection punts the QB position back into Daniel Jones‘ hands for one more year.

567. Let’s talk about Malik Nabers because he’s being drafted as the 2nd highest rookie WR… EVER. Drafters are getting sharper believing that WRs can transition to the NFL game faster than in years past. 

568. As we detailed all off-season, Nabers‘ separation is a gift via curls, dig routes. He can line up all over the field – (53% slot, 46% wide last year at LSU) and is explosive in so many ways in & out of breaks & with the ball in his hands. The ONLY 1st Round WRs who averaged above 4 Yards per Route Run vs ZONE since 2016: Jaylen Waddle, CeeDee Lamb, DeVonta Smith, Drake London.. and Nabers. 

569. The Giants Offense is probably the biggest concern with Nabers. Any Daniel Jones or Giants stat is going to look awful but it’s hard applying those numbers when they did not have a TRUE ALPHA. It is a true chicken or egg situation: are the Giants bad because of Daniel Jones or is Daniel Jones bad because of the Giants offensive weapons? Week 2 of preseason did not help the conversation as Jones through two interceptions.

570. Over the last decade, 12 rookie WRs hit a 23+ % target share. All three Ballers have Nabers comfortably above that projection (Andy- 25% tgt share/ Jason- 27% / Mike- 28%) so let’s make that our starting place and ask what if? ALL 12 of those rookie WRs were in the double-digits of fantasy points per game. The average? 13.2. For context, Ja’Marr Chase was at 13.3 on the season last year.

571. But what’s even wilder about those 12 WRs… they were on BAD teams. 75% of those teams did not make the playoffs. They were 3rd or 4th place in the division.

Weighing all those options for Nabers comes down to buying into him at ADP, as Andy detailed in his My Guy argument.

572. Wan’Dale Robinson is another player who you might feel has never fully been on the field long enough for us to judge who he is. He dominated for Kentucky in college, targeted on an obscene 37% of his routes in his final year with Will Levis slinging him the rock. The Giants took him 43rd overall to step right into a near every down slot role. In six games as a rookie, he was targeted on an impressive 23% of his routes making him an intriguing slot option. His season ended abruptly with a torn ACL and while his recovery was faster than anticipated, it took him until Week 4 to make a dent in the NYG rotation. The QB carousel between Daniel Jones, Tommy DeVito, and Tyrod Taylor did not help his development but if you zero in after the Giants Week 13 bye, Robinson posted a healthy 20% TPRR and a passable 1.63 YPRR. It’s not glorious but for a slot WR in PPR leagues, you could do worse.

573. Poor Darius Slayton. He led the Giants in receiving yards in four of the last five seasons joining Mike Evans and Terry McLaurin as the only WRs to accomplish that feat on the same team since 2019. Yet, it seems like he never quite gets the respect he deserves. His WR35 season as a rookie is the highest fantasy finish for a Giants WR in the Daniel Jones era.

574. Per ESPN’s Matt Bowen, Slayton ran a vertical route (nine/corner/post) 44% of routes, the 2nd highest among WRs with 50+ receptions last year. His three 20+ air yard TDs were as many as A.J. Brown and his most since his rookie year of 2019. Will he be on the field a ton opposite Nabers? You bet. Will his 1.27 YPRR versus zone coverage be a sign that he fades back into fantasy oblivion? Likely.

575. After an insane final year at Tennessee with massive game-breaking plays all over the game film, Jalin Hyatt not only did not catch a single TD as a rookie but he struggled to get on the field consistently. He averaged just 48% snaps and 21.5 routes per game until their Week 13 bye. A whopping 45% of his targets were 20+ yards down the field but if you focus on the other 3 levels of the field, he accounted for just 139 total receiving yards.

576. With Darren Waller‘s retirement, there is an opportunity for someone to step up at TE. Daniel Bellinger had some moments as a rookie but after goose-egging in the TD department in 2023, he is likely just another dude who happens to be on an NFL roster. From Week 9 on, Giants TEs saw just 19% of the team’s targets (22nd in NFL) and the 5th fewest red zone targets in that span. It is a fringe role on this team at a onesie position for fantasy.

577. Penn State keeps churning out TEs for the NFL with its fifth TE since 2015 to be drafted. Theo Johnson sported a near perfect 9.99 RAS score causing some to hype him up in this role.

578. Johnson‘s production profile at Penn State is lacking in a number of areas. His 1.26 YPRR is a 22nd percentile in his final college season. For context, only 2 TEs over the last decade had a top-10 fantasy season <1.40 YPRR: Dawson Knox & Dalton Schultz. Also, for being such an athletic guy, Johnson has just 7 total missed tackles over the last 4 years on 76 catches.

Washington Commanders

579. How bad was it last year in Washington? The four wins doesn’t truly do justice. They had the worst point differential in the NFL (-189) and that was the 4th worst point differential of any team over the last five years.

580. The Commanders became the 1st NFL team since 2015 to lead the NFL in pass attempts and yet NOT contribute a top-20 RB, a top-24 WR, or a top-12 TE. Here are the pass attempts leaders since 2018 and how the Commanders stacked up historically.

581. “How do you do, fellow kids?” Backwards hat Dan might be trying to stay relevant with his attire but he also happens to be one of the best defensive coaches in the NFL after guiding the Cowboys to a truly special season. He stays in the NFC East and will be responsible for turning around a Commanders “defense” that ranked dead last in points, yards, and expected points per play. Get ‘em Dan!

582. 65.7% of the team’s rushing yardage occurred after contact, the 2nd highest rate in the NFL behind only the Tennessee Derrick Henrys. In fact, Washington averaged 2.91 yards after contact per attempt, 2nd only to the Dolphins. Running out of shotgun (58% of the time) was the storyline as Brian Robinson Jr. ranked top-12 in shotgun rushing attempts, yardage and 1st downs gained. Not bad considering the Commanders were dead last in neutral rush rate.

583. After ranking 29th in turnovers per drive and dead last in 26th in “3-and-outs”, the offense never could quite hold onto the ball long enough to sustain meaningful drives. They trailed by 7+ points on 718 of their 1,060 offensive plays last year, which equates to 68% of the time! That was 2nd only to the Panthers giving credence to a 1st half pass rate of 71 percent.  This team was always trailing! The Commanders had a lead on just 14.4% of Sam Howell‘s pass attempts. Woof.

584. This team saw an inordinate amount of man coverage (32%), the 2nd highest rate in the NFL. Against Cover-1 looks, the Commanders were exposed against outside CBs as Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, and Jahan Dotson totaled just five receiving TDs against man coverage. Their YAC plays were limited and now 40% of the team’s targets are gone as Antonio Gibson, Curtis Samuel, and Logan Thomas are now out the door. Thomas was old but was a “post-up” type body in the red zone while Gibson and Samuel provided the much-needed versatility out of the backfield and in short areas.

585. Kliff Kingsbury was brought in to resurrect arguably the most worthless offense for fantasy. Kingsbury’s Arizona teams ranked #1 in no-huddle rate all four years as head coach and the first two seasons, he also was #1 in pace of play.

586. Howell was your passing attempts king with 612. It was a lot of empty calories on the year and the Commanders seem very clear that they will be taking their newest franchise QB at 2nd overall in the NFL. Among 45 QBs with 600+ pass attempts over the last decade, Howell’s QB Rating ranks 43rd, his sack rate ranks 45th, and his adjusted yards gained per attempt ranks 44th. Oh, and Howell also led the league in pick-sixes with four. Whoops!

Cardinals offense under Kliff from 2019-2022

2019: Neutral pace: 1st, No huddle rate: 1st
2020: Neutral pace: 1st, No huddle rate: 1st
2021: Neutral pace: 13th, No huddle rate: 1st
2022: Neutral pace: 10th, No huddle rate: 1st https://t.co/xTMgPKXKZs

— Matthew Betz (@TheFantasyPT) June 6, 2024

587. Enter 2nd overall pick Jayden Daniels. His 43% rush share in his best college season is the 3rd highest ever for a QB drafted in the first round of the draft. I wrote a couple of years ago about Rookie QBs & What History Can Tell Us when Kyler Murray came into the league. The main findings were since 1990, every rookie QB that crossed 80 rushing attempts has not only been a fantasy force but maintained a top-10 QB per game pace. To give perspective, 80 rushing attempts is 4.7 per game in this new 17-game era. Based on our early season-long projections in the Ultimate Draft Kit, Daniels will fly by this marker.

588. As Nate Tice explained, Daniels’ total number of scrambles (258 since 2019) towers above anyone else in the NCAA over that timeframe. Over the last two seasons at LSU, Daniels averaged 4.8 scrambles per game per PFF. He posted the highest scramble rate (31.7%) of any college QB in their final season with 250+ dropbacks over the last decade.

589. A scramble is the most valuable QB rush attempt between the 20s worth more than two times as many fantasy points as a designed run in 2023. QBs with 20+ scramble attempts averaged over 7 yards per carry last year for context. Considering the massive amount of sacks the Commanders gave up in 2023 (thank Sam Howell!), the opportunities to take off and run should be plenty! Before you go all-in, there is a double-edged sword with Daniels‘ scrambling as I detailed in Daniels’ Rookie Profile article. This style can invite big hits and presents a potential point of contention for whoever becomes his OC and QB coach at the next level. While operating in the midst of chaos is a trait we love seeing from young QBs, you can bet there will be a narrative at play about “taking what is given” and teaching Daniels to avoid contact when he becomes the franchise cornerstone of a billion-dollar organization.

590. If you want a deeper dive on Daniels, I wrote Jayden Daniels’ Range of Outcomes & Recent Dynasty History. One of the areas of growth I mentioned for Daniels will be in the play-action passing game. Among the six QBs drafted in the first round in 2024, he was by far the lowest of the group.  In fact, that ranked 155th(!) out of 162 qualifying QBs in the NCAA. The league average for 2023 was 23.1% of dropbacks so I do want to temper any worry about this statistic. Young QBs in systems where they are brought along slowly are often closer to 30%, and schemes with highly mobile QBs like Lamar Jackson (28%), Jalen Hurts (26.5%), and Justin Fields (25.9%) often hit rates much higher. In Kliff Kingsbury’s four years (2019-2022) as head coach of the Cardinals, Kyler Murray‘s play-action rates looked very similar with well above league-average numbers (26.9%, 29.9% & 30.3%) for the first three years before plummeting in Year 4 to just 19.4% and eventually Kliff’s exodus from the desert in Arizona.

591. Entering Year 3, Brian Robinson Jr. truthers should be taking a victory lap after he emerged as a valuable fantasy back for most of the year. From Weeks 1-11, he was the RB4 averaging 13.5 fantasy points per game on 15.5 opportunities per game. To give you some perspective, he scored more total fantasy points in that span than Mike Evans or Puka Nacua.

592. The crazy part is that Robinson Jr. showed out as a pass-catcher. His 1.68 YPRR was 5th best among RBs and his 138.2 QB Rating when targeted was the highest among all RBs. That rate is the 2nd highest among all RBs over the last five years tipping his hand that it was an outlier season as a receiver with Ekeler now in town.

593. Robinson is the only true “big bodied back” on the team. Kingsbury’s primary running backs with the Cardinals — Kenyan Drake (2019-20) and James Conner (2021-22) — averaged 10 rushing TDs even with a mobile QB in Kyler Murray. He is not the sexiest name but everything we’ve heard is that the tempo will be faster and more no-huddle. Robinson’s statistics in no-huddle: 1 carry, zero yards. That’s it.

594. Austin Ekeler possibly was the worst top-5 fantasy pick of all-time as his efficiency numbers plummeted:

• Yards per Carry (3.5)– tied for 52nd out of 61 qualifying RBs
• Yards After Contact per Rush– Ranked 47th among 50 qualifying RBs

Ekeler’s 3.9% rate of runs that gained 10 or more yards ranked 47th out of 49 running backs to run the ball 100 or more times during the regular season. His previous career-low was a 10.7% explosive rate back in 2021.

595. To put Ekeler‘s ineptitude in perspective, 61% of his rush attempts gained 3 yards or fewer. From Thanksgiving to end of season, it got even worse:  he had ONE gain of 10+ yards on 77 attempts… it was 10 yards exactly. His yards per carry was a “robust” 3.01 in that span. 

Among all RBs with 100+ attempts last year, Austin Ekeler only had more 10+ yard runs than:

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Goodnight, sweet prince 😢

— Matthew Betz (@TheFantasyPT) July 9, 2024

596. I mentioned the crazy passing volume but the team’s performance against zone coverage was their true demise. The targets were distributed quite equally with no-one seeing a TPRR above 20%.

597. Terry McLaurin had his fourth consecutive 120+ target and 1,000-yard season. Sounds great; but he’s also caught five or fewer touchdown passes in each of the past four seasons. Since 2000, only D.J. Moore scored fewer receiving TDs through five years to start an NFL career despite seeing over 5,000 total receiving yards.

598. It wasn’t just the TDs as McLaurin averaged a career-low 1.56 YPRR, 12.7 yards per catch and a career-low 58.9 yards per game last season. Chalk it up to the inaccuracy of Sam Howell as McLaurin’s 643 total routes were the 3rd most in the NFL.

599. If McLaurin is the alpha WR1 of this team, what could that mean for fantasy? As Andy wrote in The Reality of Rookie QBs: Can They Get it Done?, in the last 13 years across 28 rookie QBs who were drafted in the top-10, only seven of their receivers eclipsed 1000 total yards on the season: 25%. Over the last five years, the leading receiver for rookie QBs who started 10+ game is historically… still a bad bet for a ceiling outcome.

600. Jahan Dotson is officially gonezo after the team traded him within the NFC East showing how little they think of him as a player. 4th year WR Dyami Brown received a ton of buzz in camp despite the fact he has fewer than 500 total receiving yards in his carer. Looking at the last 20 years, only one WR finished as a top-24 WR after starting his career with that low of a receiving yardage total: Julian Edelman.

601. Brown has one top-25 weekly finish in that span and while he’s been a nine-route or nothing guy, he might have a more nuanced route tree this year. A “clear out” role could be coming which is fun for the occasional spike week but maddening for fantasy purposes.

Dyami Brown isn't a superstar but the kind of QB play he got from Howell last year left at LEAST 3-4 TD on the table and likely put Brown into therapy. pic.twitter.com/rONEu2UiHC

— Andy Holloway (@andyholloway) August 22, 2024

602. Christian’s brother (Luke McCaffrey) was taken in the 3rd round and while the Best Ball community elevated his draft stock early in the summer, it’s clear he will have to work his way into the WR rotation. He played over 70% of his snaps from the slot in college, which works out nicely after Washington lost Curtis Samuel this offseason. In his final season at Rice, McCaffrey had some solid numbers including a 37% dominator rating thanks to 13(!) receiving TDs. 

603. We did get a fun story of McCaffrey following Jayden Daniels early in the morning to try and get regular breakfast and workout time. The Stafford/Kupp breakfast narrative is a favorite for all of us to speculate with but lil McCaffrey’s role comes down to the pass rate for Washington. There is a shift over the last five years with teams feeling more comfortable letting rookie QBs rip. The floor with a rookie QBs is higher than a decade ago. Over the last five years, 10 of the 14 rookie QBs (with 10+ starts) finished in the top-half (16th or better) in the NFL in team pass rate. If we can project a team’s pass rate to be in the top-16 of the league, there is a good shot that the leading WR finished near WR2 territory.

604. Zach Ertz is going to be annoying at beginning of the season… until he fades eventually. Remember when Ertz had 10 targets in Week 1 last year in Arizona? That led all TEs in the NFL Week 1 although those 10 targets amounted to a 6-for-21 line with his longest catch was being 6 yards that game.

605. Rookie Ben Sinnott was selected in the 2nd round (53rd overall) as an athletic specimen (9.75 RAS Score) and a favorite of ours on the Dynasty Podcast. “The Senator” was a former high school hockey player who walked on at Kansas State as a LB/FB and eventually found a role as a do-it-all hybrid/move TE in the mold of former Washington TE Chris Cooley and George Kittle. His usage (13% backfield, 66% in-line, 20% slot, 2% wide) and bowling ball style as a blocker makes him a fun player to root for.

606. Sinnott was PFF’s highest-graded rookie TE in preseason Week 1 as his YAC-ability was on display with an awesome 44-yard catch. His numbers at Kansas State (24% dominator rating, 22% TPRR, 2.02 YPRR) all are stellar marks for a college TE. It will likely be a slow burn (as most dynasty TEs are) but if you took the Senator in the late 2nd round of your rookie drafts, get ready for a fun ride.

NFC North

Detroit Lions

607. Since 2000, here is every team to have all of the following in the same season:

• Top-10 fantasy QB
• 2 top-12 fantasy RBs (in fppg)
• Top-5 fantasy WR
• Top-5 fantasy TE….

The 2023 Detroit Lions ………..that’s all folks.

608. The public is ready to eat up the Lions again and champion Dan Campbell yet again. Their win total (10.5) and the action (89% of the money at BetMGM is on the over) suggests another double-digit year. They are favored in 13 of their 17 games with just three total outdoor games… 1st one is until in Week 9!

609. OC Ben Johnson passed on a number of head coaching offers this off-season to re-install himself as one of the league’s pre-eminent play callers. Despite having the 5th highest neutral rush rate, the Lions ranked 2nd in passing yards, 4th in passing TDs, and 1st in rushing TDs. Since 1990, only three teams had 30+ passing TDs and 27+ rushing TDs in the same season: the 2023 Lions, the 2023 49ers, and the 2023 Dolphins. Wow.

610. Opposing defenses failed to exploit a key defect in the offense: its performance against man coverage. Against man looks, the Lions were tied with the Giants and Titans for the 3rd worst fantasy points per dropback. However,

611. The defensive secondary was certainly the weak spot all year long. After ranking 27th in passing yards and passing TDs allowed, Detroit spent its 1st two picks on CBs (Terrion Arnold & Ennis Rakestraw) to shore up their back-end. However, schematically, there are some red flags. The Lions ranked 2nd in pressure rate preferring to stick in base looks (4-3) at the 5th highest rate in the NFL. However, the Lions ranked dead last in yards per attempt allowed when blitzing, which they did 27% of the time. If you can get consistent pressure on the QB with 4 or 5 guys, why blitz that much?

612. The Detroit Lions offense is certainly capable of supporting multiple top-end options after ranking 5th in points scored, 2nd in total yards per game, and 2nd in plays per game. The offensive line is the strength of this team ranking 2nd in PFF’s end of season rankings 2023 (and 2nd most expensive) and 1st in their 2024 edition. This group is almost unfair when you compare to the rest of the NFL:

• LT – Taylor Decker- Top-10 in ESPN’s Pass Block Win Rate
• LG – Graham Glasgow- #2 in ESPN’s Run Block Win Rate
• C – Frank Ragnow- 3 time Pro Bowler
• RG – Kevin Zeitler- Coming off 1st Pro Bowl
• RT – Penei Sewell- Top-10 in ESPN’s Pass Block Win Rate

613. It’s not rocket science but Jared Goff has always been better at home and dome games. He’s played 17 games at Ford Field the last two years (so a full season’s worth) totaling 4712 passing yards & 43 Passing TDs! He had 7 top-12 finishes in 2023 and 6-of-7 were indoors.

614. The set up of the offense does need some context. Goff slayed in the Intermediate area (11-19 yards) tying for first in Pass TDs and ranked 2nd in Intermediate Passing Yards. He had the 2nd highest target rate “over the middle of the field” behind only C.J. Stroud.

615. Goff’s history of deep passing leaves a lot to be desired. Since Goff joined the Lions, his rates of 20+ yard attempts have been just 9.1%, 9.4% and 7.8%. Among qualified QBs, those numbers ranked 30th, 29th and 38th. While you can find stats that say he has the 3rd most 20+ yard passing TDs over the last three years, you can also zoom in and realize he ranks outside the top-10 in 20+ air yard TDs.

616. Goff still struggles against the blitz with a league-leading 6 INTs and ranking 29th in completion percentage among qualifying QBs.

617. I mean, since we are going with 1,000+ facts, I received a number of “Hendon Hooker… what should I do in dynasty?” questions and stumbled into this. Since 2000, there were 71 QBs taken 3rd round or later who started ZERO games as a rookie.

618. Non-Tom Brady QBs on this list averaged just 3.7 seasons played in the NFL. However, 3rd Round QBs averaged 5.6 seasons. In other words, Hooker was always a pipe dream (as an old injured prospect) and now with Jared Goff‘s massive extension, it is clear the odds are against him ever starting more than five games in his career.

619. Part of the offensive success was the offensive line’s push as the Lions 1.87 yards before contact per attempt ranked 2nd in the NFL. They also totaled the 5th most rushing yardage from explosive 15+ yard plays runs and the most combined carries inside the five yard line. In other words, the combination of big plays, valuable plays inside the 5-zone, and arguably the best offensive line in the game was lethal for fantasy.

620. Jahmyr Gibbs took a minute to get moving but from Week 7-16, he was the RB3 averaging 18.2 opportunities, 6.0 yards per carry, and 104.3 total yards, and 1.1 TDs per game.

621. Gibbs is tied for the 3rd highest fantasy points per touch ever for a rookie RB on a list with some impressive names.

622. Gibbs and Montgomery became the 1st pair of teammates in NFL history with at least 1,000 scrimmage yards and 10 rushing TDs in the same season. Gibbs outproduced Monty on every per-touch metric and the red zone opportunities are a bit more split that you might realize. For more on this pairing, check out Jack Reinhart’s RB ADP Battles article.

623. Does David Montgomery go the way of James Conner and age like a fine wine? Or Damien Harris? 90% of Montgomery’s fantasy points came via the ground last year thanks to his elite role inside the red zone. He had the 5th most red zone touches and converted 19 of his attempts inside the five yard line to nine rushing TDs. 

624. Here is a list of recent top-15 RBs with 90% of their fantasy points via rushing:

All of these RBs had major fallouts the year after thanks to their TD reliance and lack of pass-catching work. That is the biggest concern for Montgomery given Jahmyr Gibbs‘ presence and Monty’s age climbing. Could he have one more year of top-20 production? Yes. Our advice in dynasty is to hold until your league’s trade deadline and then be willing to part looking for desperate trade partners able to pay a future 1st round asking price.

625. Amon-Ra St. Brown now has the 3rd most receptions (315) through someone’s 1st 3 years of his career: 90 < 106 < 119. He trails only Justin Jefferson (324) and Michael Thomas (321). Actually, because I wrote that down, he will probably take it personal. The record for four years into a career? 470 receptions by Michael Thomas. Amon-Ra would need to put up an all-timer (156 receptions) to make that happen.

626. Brown is the rare PPR slot WR who also garners an elite red zone role. His 30% red zone target share for the Lions was 10th best in the NFL. He ranked 3rd in red zone targets among WRs and a whopping 23 of his 24 targets inside the 20 yard line were “1st reads”.

627. He also is more versatile than you might realize slowly being integrated all over the formation. His slot rate (77% > 60% > 55% last year) suggests that we can’t pigeon-hole him as a slot-only guy anymore. Amon-Ra might be the safest pick anyone could make in full PPR leagues although repeating 10 receiving TDs will be a tough task.

The highest-graded WR on slant and hitch routes in 2023

Amon-Ra St. Brown 🦁 pic.twitter.com/wQIECi9i8l

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— PFF (@PFF) June 12, 2024

628. Ah, Jameson Williams. We meet again. I can’t tell you how many Jameson Williams comments, tweets, and questions we received all off-season. In just 18 total regular season games, Williams has two top-24 fantasy games barely getting there with WR24 and WR23. The other 16 games? He averaged 3.7 fantasy points per game. Heck, he has zero games of 14+ fantasy points which puts him in a rough crowd of 1st round wideouts.

629. If Williams truly does become a “full-time” player seeing 30+ routes per game, you’d hope to see more consistent splash plays. He caught two or fewer passes in 13 of 15 games played. This team was best in 11-personnel as Williams was not trusted in 2WR sets with a laughable 27 total receiving yards in 2023. His TD in the NFC Title game is the last image from this season so there is some recent momentum you might be clinging to if you are a Jameson believer.

630. Nico Collins actually hit basically the same YPRR number (1.43) as Jameson through two seasons and in Year 3, he went through the roof. Use that as a fun anecdote and not an A + B = C type of conclusion.

631. 30-year-old Kalif Raymond has a path to snaps in this Lions offense as the WR3. He’s best known as a DFS showdown guy on Thanksgiving but his ability in the return game is certainly a key part of this team. Dan Campbell came out and said that the team “would rather not play him 65 plays a game, but we will if we have to”. Checking through Raymond’s game logs… he averaged 24.8 snaps (offensive + special teams) last year and topped out at 34 in Week 5. 65 plays, Dan?!!?

632. The 3rd WR spot is definitely the weakest spot on the offensive side of the ball. While Goff good inside the red zone with 3+ WRs, the team was league average in terms of its distribution.

My biggest question mark for this team (schematically) is if opposing defenses press up more with more man coverages and dare Goff to beat them deep. Jameson Williams would be the guy to win over the top and knife through defenses vertically but we’ve yet to consistently see it in the NFL.

633. Sam LaPorta set a number of rookie TE records as he dropkicked every rookie TE narrative imaginable:

• most receptions (86)
• Tied Gronkowski for most rookie receiving TDs (10)
• 2nd most TE 1st Downs (Shockey- 2002)

634. LaPorta ran only 26.5% of his routes in the slot but when he was there, he was targeted on 31% of his routes, the highest among all TEs. Only George Kittle (2.89) had a higher YPRR than LaPorta (2.47) in the slot.

635. History says buyer beware: over the last decade, every TE with 10+ scores and less than 900 receiving yards has regressed in the TD department. If LaPorta falls off in the TD department at all, fantasy drafters are likely to regret clicking the button on LaPorta at the 2/3 turn.

Green Bay Packers

636. Matt LaFleur continues to be one of the top head coaches in the NFL with a .675 winning percentage since taking over as the Packers head coach in 2019. Here is how the Packers have performed:

• 2019: 13-3
• 2020: 13-3
• 2021: 13-4
• 2022: 8-9
• 2023: 9-8

Only the Bills (58) and Chiefs (63) have more regular season wins (56) over the last five years.

637. One of the major headlines was the equity across the board offensively. The ball was spread around a ton with 3,642 receiving yards coming from 1st & 2nd year players, the 2nd most in NFL history. 65% of the targets went to WRs, the 6th highest rate in the NFL. 

638. The defense felt like it was a bend-don’t-break unit ranking 10th in points allowed but 23rd in turnovers created. It wasn’t for a lack of effort as Green Bay blitzed at the 6th highest rate. Their secondary was the 2nd most expensive (salary cap-wise) in the NFL and yet they were bottom-12 in explosive pass rate allowed as CB Jaire Alexander missed seven games. They were a run funnel allowing the 5th most rushing yards per game as teams tried to milk the clock against Green Bay with the 4th highest average time of possession. This type of variance shifts year-to-year.

639. It was a fairly balanced attack although the Packers excelled at zone-based blocking runs. Their 56% success rate ranked 3rd in the NFL (behind only BAL & BUF) and 4.92 yards per carry when 3+ WRs were on the field.

640. In his first full season as starter, Jordan Love finished in the top-7 among QBs in completion percentage over expectation versus zone coverage showcasing the type of poise and ability to read defenses you want to see in a franchise QB. He also was willing to chuck is deep versus zone (13% of attempts) trailing only Will Levis and Russell Wilson among qualifying QBs of 250+ dropbacks.

641. Love was a high-floor option all year long with 11 finishes inside the top 12, the 3rd most among all QBs behind only Allen & Hurts. He was the QB3 from Week 10 on and he finished with the 2nd most passing TDs (32) and 2nd most air yards.

642. The red zone work is what was most impressive in Love’s first full year as a starter. He went 18 TDs/0 INTs inside the 10-yard line thanks to the 2nd most red zone passing attempts. They let him cook in close.

643. Let’s put Love into some historical context. Over last decade, 48 QBs had 30+ passing TDs & 5.5+ % TD rate, like Love. Only EIGHT improved their TD rate the following year: True GOATs- Brady (x2), Rodgers, Brees, and Russell Wilson (x2), Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes. The other group? 83% saw a decrease the following year and the average decrease was 1.5%. It comes down to what you believe about him & this offense.

644. Packers RBs are due for a major bounce back in TD rushing department. Their 2023 RBs had FOUR total rushing TDs on 368 attempts with Aaron Jones & A.J. Dillon having two each. For historical context, among backfields with more than 350 attempts, that is FEWEST RUSH TDs since 2016.

645. It feels like this year is shaping up to be another one of those “we all doubted Josh Jacobs” years. He’s hilariously on the “every other year” plan for fantasy in his career (this is the good year) and since 2019, only Derrick Henry has touched the ball more among RBs. Those 1,502 touches might be weighing in your mind as he’s averaged 21.4 opportunities per game in his 5-year career.

646. The 2023 version of Jacobs trended in the wrong way efficiency-wise in a number of areas: yards per carry (56th out of 69), forced missed tackle rate (tied-51st out of 69), and explosive rush rate (54th out 69). He posted the lowest fantasy points per opportunity (0.57) of his career ranking 47th among 50 qualifying RBs aka slightly better than Javonte Williams, Alexander Mattison, & AJ Dillon. Woof.

647. Speaking of woof, Jacobs is due (call it math, call it fate, call it whatever you want) for some luck in the receiving TD department. With five more receptions without a TD, he surpass Gerald Riggs and sit #1 all-time among players without a TD in terms of career receptions. Since Jacobs came into the league, 610 different players have caught a receiving TD including 12 Offensive Linemen, 7 Quarterbacks, 3 Linebackers, 3 Defensive Linemen, 2 Defensive Backs, and 1 Kicker (Jason Sanders Baby!)

Through 6 years in the NFL, 254 targets & 197 receptions, Josh Jacobs still has yet to catch a receiving TD…

Here are his closest calls inside the red zone 📽️ & some historical thoughts 👇 pic.twitter.com/3A47IbiSg1

— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) April 15, 2024

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648. When you compare the 2023 Raiders and the Packers, the situation should set him up for more red zone opportunity. Las Vegas ranked 17th in red zone plays per game and 24th in 3rd down conversion rate while Green Bay was 2nd and 3rd, respectively. If Jacobs ends up seeing 250-280 opportunities on a good offense, he can easily pay off his draft cost. Jacobs is one of the best examples of making sure you play to your draft platform: on Sleeper, he is going at the 3.02. The Best Ball community has stuck him in the 5th round while on ESPN, he is in the 4th.

649. Rookie MarShawn Lloyd was a popular sleeper pick this summer after the Packers took him in the 3rd round of the draft. His NFL combine was a thing of beauty. We’ve seen head coach Matt LaFleur use multiple RBs ever since he got to Green Bay, so even if Jacobs sees a hefty workload, there should be an opportunity for the rookie to contribute as part of a committee. In fact, looking back through Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon‘s four years together, neither surpassed 60% of the snaps on average and Jones’ opportunities per game were only 17 per game in that span.

650. Lloyd‘s explosiveness at USC certainly showed up on tape (and in practice) but his fumbling issues were prevalent (every 36 touches!) and popped up again during training camp. To compare, the diminutive Bucky Irving never fumbled once on his 569 college touches.  Lloyd’s 17% dominator rating is dreadfully low for a RB prospect where TDs and yardage are stickier from college than we often give credit. Some Packers beat writers suggested this could be more of a “red-shirt” season as (somehow) Dillon is looking ahead of him on the depth chart. Regardless of the order, he might be brought along slower than what fantasy pundits desire. Imagine that.

651. In case you were holding out hope, A.J. Dillon yards’ per carry by year have not trended well: 5.3 > 4.3 > 4.1 > 3.4. The 26-year-old is still hovering around dynasty relevance on a team that preaches a committee approach. Dillon is going to have a game with 2 TDs this year, isn’t he?

652. The Packers were most effective in 3WR Sets:

• #4 in Exp. Points per Pass in 3WR sets
• #2 in Yards per Route Run in the Slot as a team
• #4 in Fantasy Points per Target to the Slot

653. From Week 10 on, Jayden Reed was the WR9 averaging 14.8 fantasy points per game, 5+ receptions, and 70 total yards in that span. He was used as a “Deebo-lite” and efficiency-monster ranking 6th among ALL WRs in PPR points per touch (2.90). Reed scoring a TD on 13% of his touches and every 7.5 touches is a bit of a red flag. Nevertheless, he is among an elite group of rookie WRs.

654. Efficiency is a double-edged sword because you can say “this player is different” or “that’s just who they are”. History would say finding the end-zone this frequently in an offense where he was deemphasized in the NFC playoffs makes him a likely candidate to be elevated too quickly in dynasty circles. Over last decade, we had 16 different WRs with 10+ TDs on 75 or fewer touches like Reed. Average drop in TDs next year? -5.4. The list includes Mike Evans & Davante Adams as TD outliers multiple times on the list + Tyler Lockett (fun comp for Reed), Mike Wallace, Chase Claypool, Ted Ginn, Torrey Smith, and Allen Hurns.

655. However, Reed‘s usage in the red zone is a point to highlight. his 17 red zone targets were solid (18th best among all WRs) but not alpha status. However, 16 of those were designed “1st reads”, the same number as Ja’Marr Chase. Inside the red zone, 94% of his targets were 1st reads revealing the type of mismatch he is.

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All 105 of his targets + rush attempts from 2023📽️ pic.twitter.com/xzVFiTo0u7

— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) July 31, 2024

656. You might pencil in Reed as just a slot, gadget guy but the big plays were there throughout the year. His 17.7 aDOT against Cover-2 (props to Doug Orth on that find) shows he also had some big gainers when LaFleur let him have run.

657. An area of caution with Reed is the fact he ran.. (wait for it)… TWO total routes with two or fewer wide receivers on the field. For a team that ran 12-personnel 32 % of the time (3rd highest in the NFL), that is a slight red flag heading into 2024. Nevertheless, Reed finished as a WR1 for fantasy in 50% of his games in the second half and his presence against Cover-4 looks (see video here) as a man in motion is textbook stuff.

658. The big plays have been there for Christian Watson as evidenced by 12 receiving TDs on just 69 total receptions. Almost 29% of his targets over the last two years were 20+ yards down field making him a volatile player in general.

659. However, there is context needed with the type of deep targets he saw. Per FantasyPoints Ryan Heath,  46.7% of Watson’s deep targets were catchable (8th-worst among 46 qualifying WRs) while 75% of Romeo Doubs’ deep targets were catchable (4th-best).

660. Watson led the team in Air Yards share, aDOT, 1st Read Target %, and target share in games played. While Jordan Love‘s progression certainly is encouraging, the emergence of other valuable receiving options on the team (Jayden Reed & Dontayvion Wicks) makes this feel like a team with too many mouths to feed. While that narrative might be a bit misguided, Watson’s valuation in dynasty circles as WR35 makes him still a worthy FLEX if your lineup as a win-you-your-week WR3. He just turned 25 and while Jayden Reed is the presumed WR1 for this team,  the targets were more spread out in GB than you realize.

661. Consider Dontayvion Wicks a super fun sleeper for 2024. As most rookies do, he came on in the second half leading this team in YPRR from Weeks 11-18. He ranked #1 among Packers WRs & 17th among all WRs in 1st Downs per Route Run with the same percentage (10%) as Tank Dell & slightly ahead of Davante Adams, Mike Evans & DK Metcalf. Matt LaFleur on seeing glimpses of Davante Adams in Wicks: “[very similar]  in short-area quickness. I think the sky’s the limit for him, quite frankly.” Wicks

662. Man, we almost got through the entire Packers WR room and didn’t really highlight Romeo Doubs. The young Green Bay offensive weapons should receive a lot of hype this off-season but Doubs might the name that falls through the cracks. He was the clear red zone option for Jordan Love with his 15 end-zone targets, which was tied for the 6th most in the NFL and 3rd most among all WRs.

663. In the playoffs, Doubs put up 234 receiving yards in two games while Jayden Reed was mostly schemed out. If you want a cheap low-end WR3/FLEX play that will give you startable weeks throughout the year, Doubs is the cheapest Packer to likely trade for this off-season in dynasty. Would you rather have a 2nd round pick with a low hit rate or a veteran you’ve seen put up eight TDs with an ascending Jordan Love?

664. I need to make sure Bo Melton (aka the Butterman) had a place in this wayyy too long article. Melton had a preseason highlight TD and while he had a limited number of snaps on the year, when he was on the field, the dude was targeted on 33% of his routes! He had 13 first downs on just 16 receptions looking like the direct downfield replacement if something were to happen to Doubs or Watson.

665. The Packers TEs are tough to parse through. While Luke Musgrave missed six weeks with a kidney laceration injury, he was selected 42nd overall by this team a year ago. From Weeks 1-11 prior to his injury, he had four weeks as a top-12 option. Musgrave’s 1.28 yards per route run is respectable for a rookie tying what T.J. Hockenson did in his rookie campaign of 2019.

666. Tucker Kraft averaged a healthy 7.7 yards after catch per reception looking like the after-the-catch fiend they drafting in the 3rd round. He commanded a 15% target share while Musgrave was out (Weeks 12-17) with his injury. You need one of the TEs to secure the full-time role and with LaFleur’s willingness to take a committee approach, neither will likely break through for fantasy purposes outside of injuries or TE premium leagues.

667. This team ‘s offensive versatility might end up making it a quagmire for fantasy purposes. Their rankings last year seems to justify a collective approach:

• 11-Personnel: 4th in EPA per play
• 12 Personnel: 11th in EPA per play
• 13-Personnel: 2nd in EPA per play

How does this affect us for fantasy purposes? The ADPs of the WRs suggest you can take a shot at any of them (fantasy Twitter loves Wicks) but there is a scenario where the production is so spread out you are disappointed at not receiving top-20 WR production.

Minnesota Vikings

668. It was a lost season in Minnesota as the Vikings went 6-8 in one-score games and 2-6 at home in 2023. Kirk Cousins‘ Achilles tear in Week 8 was a microcosm of hopes dashed and 2024 might start off the same with rookie QB J.J. McCarthy now out for the year.

669. Minnesota is favored in just four games this season and unfortunately has Warren Sharp’s 6th hardest strength of schedule.

670. After losing Cousins in Week 8, Minnesota QBs decided to play DGAF football with a league-worst 4.4% INT rate. How can you blame them? Minnesota ranked 4th in pass rate and 5th in pace and that was while throwing Joshua Dobbs, Jaren Hall, and Nick Mullens out there for almost half the year.

671. The Vikings were insistent on throwing the ball with the highest pass rate in the NFL (60%) when leading. Their 4,700 total passing yards led the NFL with 80% of their passing TDs and 75% of their yards coming with 3+ WRs on the field.

672. While the identity was throwing the ball, keep in mind that Jefferson’s injury did adjust their scheme. They ran 11-personnel just 65% of the time on 1st down, down from 74% in 2022. The 3rd WR battle this off-season is an important one considering the departed K.J. Osborn ran 558(!) routes last year, 21st among all WRs. While his TPRR (13.1%) leaves something to be desired, it is a position that Kevin O’Connell values especially with T.J. Hockenson‘s injury to open the season.

673. Running the ball… well, that is a different story. The Vikings ranked 30th in rushing yards per game and 71% of the carries were under center, the 2nd highest rate in the NFL. Predictable? Yes. Vikings RBs were stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage 48.3% of the time, the 5th worst rate in the NFL.

674. The Kevin O’Connell scheme is not quite the RB bonanza like we experience with Dalvin Cook in his years in Minnesota.

675. The defense boasted the highest blitz rate in the NFL yet finished only 19th in sacks. They took EDGE Dallas Turner 18th overall while also adding free agents Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel. They are hoping Greenard is essentially a younger Danielle Hunter, who conveniently went to Houston to replace Greenard. The Vikings were stout against the run ranking 5th in yards per carry, 9th in EPA per rush and 10th in red zone defensive efficiency.

676. The Vikings were the only team in the NFL to rank top-5 in passing yards per game each of the last two seasons making it blantantly obvious what this team is built upon as an identity. Can you win that way? While the 2022 version benefitted from some fluky one-score results and the 5th fewest games lost due to injury, the 2023 version dealt with the 2nd most injured games on the defensive line and 6th most at QB. Football has more randomness in projecting than you can imagine. Vikings fans are not gonna like that but they, of all fan bases, know what that variance can feel like.

677. Let’s talk some Sam Darnold. With the rookie officially out for the season, Sam Darnold somehow will luck his way into a starting role on his 4th different NFL team. He remains forever young as he has yet to turn 27 years old despite entering Year 7 in the NFL. Minnesota is a pass-happy offense finishing top-5 in pass rate each of Kevin O’Connell’s first two years coaching so volume could be on his side.

678. This rant from Warren Sharp probably sums up best where Darnold is at with this many years of “experience in the NFL”:

the NFL avg completion rate the last decade is 63.9%

Sam Darnold played 66 games over 6 seasons

he NEVER had 1 season with even 62% comp

his career average is 59.7% comp

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that ranks #47 out of 48 QBs

meanwhile…

Kirk Cousins ranked #4 of 48 (67.4%) pic.twitter.com/skfdriqKAh

— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) August 14, 2024

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679. One of the quietly annoying parts of the KOC offense was this teams reliance on throwing the ball short with Kirk Cousins. The YAC plays never quite materialized as the Vikings averaged 4.5 yards after the catch per completion. That ranked 30th in the NFL ahead of only the Saints (4.4) and Panthers (4.1). The average was the lowest in the last four years among teams with 410+ total completions. The Vikings were also the only team in the NFL without a WR to surpass 300+ yards after the catch.

680. When I dove into his tape preparing for our Dynasty QB preview, I was pleasantly surprised J.J. McCarthy‘s arm strength and accuracy. His 80% adjusted completion rate ranked 2nd in the class and 26% of his attempts were in the 11-19 in intermediate range of the field, #1 in this class. Both of those metrics translate to NFL success.

681. I likened McCarthy to Alex Smith with a bigger arm which probably received some groans from listeners on the Dynasty Podcast. Smith not only was taken 1.01 by the 49ers (in the same 2005 draft as Aaron Rodgers by the way) but had a solid NFL career including some years as a Chiefs signal caller where he was on fire for fantasy. In 2017, he finished as the QB6 the year before Patrick Mahomes took over.

682. Aaron Jones stays in the NFC North on a one-year deal ($7 million to play for the rival Vikings. His opportunities per game peaked in the 2019 and 2020 seasons but he’s never truly been a full-time player throughout his career while also noting that he played only two full seasons in his career.

683. Jones came alive over the final month and into the NFC playoffs. Over his final 6 games (counting playoffs), he saw 17, 24, 21, 27, 22, and 24 opportunities and finished with 100+ rushing yards in five straight games.

684. Part of the scare is the fact this team had the lowest rush rate (31%) of any team inside the red zone. The only teams with fewer total red zone rushes last year: NYJ & NE.

685. The concern is Jones‘ age and the overall functionality of the offense with a new QB. Since 2010, only 3 RBs on new teams in age 30+ season have scored 10+ TDs:

• 2015 DeAngelo Williams (PIT)
• 2019 Mark Ingram (BAL)
• 2021 Cordarrelle Patterson (ATL)

686. Alexander Mattison‘s efficiency as a runner was a major issue and down the stretch, he lost playing time to Ty Chandler, who looked more explosive with his touches. From Week 10 on, Chandler averaged 14 opportunities including a ridiculous Week 15 game where he totaled 157 yards and was the RB4 on the week. Chandler looks like the projected backup to Aaron Jones and seems trusted by this regime.

687. At first glance, Justin Jefferson‘s 1,074 receiving yards from 2023 sounds meh… Oh, except it’s the MOST RECEIVING YARDS in NFL HISTORY (sorry for yelling) in a season with 10 games played or fewer. His 17-game pace was 1,825. Through 4 seasons, he’s averaging 98.3 receiving yards per game  #1 ALL-TIME (min. 50 games played) ahead of Calvin Johnson (86.1), Antonio Brown (84.2), Julio Jones (82.5), and Tyreek Hill (81.8). If JJetts somehow devolves into a slightly better Gabe Davis (career average of 42.6) for 2024, he’d still be #1.

688. Now if you only counted his eight healthy games, Jefferson went BONKERS. In those 8 games, he averaged 127.3 receiving yards per game… better known as a 17-game pace of 2,165 yards. He was off the charts great for fantasy. Those 1st 4 games? Kirk Cousins starts Those last 4 games? Nick Mullens (technically Jaren Hall started Week 17)

689. Zoom in a bit further and you’ll notice JJetts put up arguably his BEST season in 2023 on a per-route basis.

690. Jason shared some of his reservations of Jefferson at the live show in LA comparing him to The Office without Michael Scott. Despite coming in 4th among WRs in YPRR, there is an element of risk you’ve never truly had selecting Jefferson this early in drafts. There are seasons like DeAndre Hopkins‘ 2016 campaign where he saw 151 targets but finished with just four receiving TDs a year after putting up a top-5 season. If you are risk averse at the beginning of your drafts, A.J. Brown‘s TD equity might win out.

691. Jordan Addison excelled down the field and intermediate area with 37% of his targets in the 10-19 yard mark. This was despite four different Minnesota QBs throwing him the ball. He’s one of five rookie WRs with 10+ receiving TDs since 2014.

692. However, the biggest caution is Addison‘s TPRR numbers being just average (17.8%). It’s not alarming but with Justin Jefferson on board, it’s tough seeing a ceiling outcome apart from another double-digit TD season.

693. Aside from his legal troubles, Addison‘s splits with and without Justin Jefferson is what ultimately leads him into FLEX territory for 2024. He averaged under five targets per game with JJetts and his unsustainable TD rate as a rookie screams Jahan Dotson-type regression…

694. Jalen Nailor was a 6th round pick in 2022 and has done next to nothing thus far in his career. However, we know this team wants to run 3WRs out there although Justin Jefferson‘s injury dropped them from 74% in 2022 to only 65% last year. He was drawing some rave reviews in preseason as this team’s “starting WR3” after going 3-for-63 in Week 1 of the preseason.

695. Most of the time, offenses don’t have enough to supply an alpha WR1, a capable WR2, a pass-catching RB, and a WR3. Not to mention the fact that T.J. Hockenson will eventually return. For reference, the departed K.J. Osborn totaled just three games inside the top-36 last year and you had no idea when to start him. Since 2014, here the highest target share for a WR3 in an offense that featured a WR1 with 28+ percent target share: 15.2 %. However, on average, the WR3 sees a 10.3% target share.

696. Speaking of Hockenson, what is the best course of action for him in 2024? From Weeks 1-12, he was THE TE1 in total fantasy points averaging 9 targets and 66 receiving yards per game.

697. However, Hockenson‘s splits without Justin Jefferson were so much better that you start to put some of his high-end production into focus:

698. Given the recovery timeline, there’s a good chance Hockenson is on the PUP list to start the 2024 season, and he’s unlikely to be 100% until late in the year. 

699. Can we laugh a bit about the rest of this TE room? Josh Oliver, is carrying a $6.1 million cap hit (17th highest among all TEs) and 3rd stringer Johnny Mundt is set to make more money than Trey McBride this year. Neither are relevant for fantasy purposes even while Hockenson is out.

Chicago Bears

700. Every single offensive metric you want to review from the Chicago Bears from 2023 probably needs to be thrown out the window. For good measure, here are a couple to reminisce on:

• 29th in pace of play
• 31st in neutral situation pace
• 29th in pass rate
• 2nd in rushing yards per game

701. Matt Eberflus is currently the betting favorite for Coach of the Year and while it may seem like a trendy pick, keep in mind the trends for this award. Ten of the last 11 winners won at least 11 games. Seven of those 11 surpassed their win total by 3.5 games so the Bears would certainly need to hit 10-11 wins to make that happen.

702. There is a weird scheduling quirk for this team. Chicago doesn’t play an NFC North game until Week 11! Then, six of its final eight games are inside the NFC North.

703. The defense ranked #1 in rushing yards per game allowed but 31st in total sacks. The Eberflus brand is a heavy dose of zone (78%) specializing in Cover-2 looks as the Bears led the NFL with 21 interceptions. CB Jaylon Johnson is an All-Pro, the linebackers are stout, and Montez Sweat does give this team an impact pass rusher. It would not surprising to see the Bears end up top-10 in points per game if they find another EDGE to pair with Sweat.

704. The team did get better and better running the ball as downs progressed:

• 1st Down- 17th in rush success rate
• 2nd Down- 12th in rush success rate
• 3rd down- 8th in rush success rate

The team was adamant on running on 2nd down (53%) with the highest rate in the NFL including an 81% rush rate on 2nd and short.

705. Fortunately, new OC Shane Waldron brings a pass-first offense over to Chicago from Seattle. In 2023, the Seahawks ranked ninth in pass rate and seventh in pass rate over expectation.

706. 54% of the team’s rushing yards came before contact given credence to this team’s run scheme. Waldron’s Seattle teams skewed towards zone-based blocking with 51% occurring under center and 40% in shotgun. Here is how Chicago lined up in 2023 to give you context.

707. The offensive line is another conundrum to crack as they ranked 32nd in pressure rate allowed but 5th in ESPN’s pass block and 2nd in ESPN’s run block win rate. You can land somewhere in the middle by reminding yourself that Justin Fields has the highest sack rate of any QB through 3 years in the NFL.

708. The target success rate to the WRs (27th) and RBs (31st) routinely set the team back on drives. However, the TEs were a nice surprised as Bears QBs completed 78.6% of their passes to TEs (3rd best) and 9th in EPA per target to the position. Consider this a theme as Waldron’s squads were also much better in 12-personnel last year.

709. It’s not often the hype meets actual on field performance. The 2022 Heisman winner became the 1.01 in the NFL Draft, and the Bears did the unthinkable: outfit him with weapons on the football field! Caleb Williams enters arguably the best situation ever for a QB taken first overall with established WR1 D.J. Moore, slot maven Keenan Allen, and an explosive rookie in #9 overall pick Rome Odunze.  There are few QBs with a higher completion percentage outside the pocket than inside the pocket, a concept we will develop. His YPA on passes that were 4+ seconds after the snap was 11.1, which is just bonkers.

710. Caleb Williams ranked #1 among this group of 1st round QBs in play-action rate sitting at 38.5%, 29th out of 162 qualifying QBs. This aspect is an underrated part of his game and something Geno Smith excelled at in 2022 under Shane Waldron.

711. Williams took a slight step back in 2023 with a much higher 3.6% Turnover Worthy Play (t-95th), a 21.9% pressure to sack ratio (worst among the ‘Big 6’ QBs), and a 7.8% sack rate. Avoiding negative plays is a better way to quantify a QBs ability in the pocket so early season results from Williams should tell us which quadrant of QB he lands in.

712. The wow plays are incredibly fun. Escapability as a superpower is the stuff highlights are made for in the NFL. However, it is a double-edged sword… Plays outside the pocket are highlight-worthy and yet, they accounted (on avg) for just 13% of QB fantasy passing fantasy points in 2023 per @FantasyPtsData

Every Caleb Williams dropback from Week 2 preseason 📽️

Including some quick thoughts on IN vs. OUT of pocket success in the NFL 👇 pic.twitter.com/jgeVM70Y4V

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— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) August 19, 2024

713. What are the odds Caleb breaks the Bears QB Passing Record in his rookie year? Erik Kramer’s 3,828 yards has stood since 1995 and Caleb’s line on Underdog Fantasy (3600.5) suggests it is well within reach. With 17 games to play, Williams would need to average 225 passing yards per game to break Kramer’s record. That would place him 6th all-time behind the likes of:

• Andrew Luck (IND)- 4,374
• Justin Herbert (LAC)- 4,336
• C.J. Stroud (HOU)- 4,108
• Cam Newton (CAR)- 4,042
• Jameis Winston (TB)- 4,042

714. As a runner, Caleb still totaled 27 rushing TDs in college, an incredible number considering it is more of a bonus of his game than a feature. He is one of 24 1st round QBs since 1995 to have 18+ % of his team’s rushing yardage. Now, Caleb barely hit that mark (18.1%) but it is in line with names like Josh Allen (18%), Patrick Mahomes (18.3%), and Marcus Mariota (21.9%). If he can get to 300 yards, you are looking at an opportunity to vault him into top-10 consideration in Year 1.

715. Opposing defenses routinely threw Cover-2 looks at Chicago last year at the 5th highest rate in the NFL. With two high safeties, the Bears sputtered with the 3rd lowest catchable target rate (71.8%) and the 3rd highest turnover-worthy attempt rate (8.2%) among all teams per FantasyPoints Data Suite. Expect similar packages to be thrown at Williams in Year 1 but now there are ample options available to beat Cover-2 with Rome vertically and Keenan underneath eating up the middle of the field.

716. The Bears totaled the 5th most rushing 1st downs in the NFL with 137. How significant is that number? Only 45 NFL teams have accomplished that feat since 2010. The Bears just happened to have done it back-to-back years and yet have two of the three lowest win totals (3 & 7) of any team in that group. In fact, teams with that many rushing TDs averaged 10 wins per year… not ten over the course of two years.

717. Swifties out there are hoopin’ and hollerin’ that he received the first reported RB free agent contract of 2024. D’Andre Swift signed a 3-year, $15 million guaranteed deal as the RB1 for a completely remade Bears offense. Keep in mind that 47% of Swift’s rushing yardage last year came before contact, the highest rate in the NFL and a testament to the Philly offensive line.

718. Overall, Swift’s stats from 2023 look fine as he totaled the 5th MOST rushing yards in the NFL, ranked 8th in Yards per Carry (4.6), and 9th in Rush Success Rate.

719. Since 2011, lead RBs playing alongside rookie QBs have averaged 250+ opportunities and low-end RB2 fantasy point production. That is probably Swift’s floor with room to finish as an RB1 if the Chicago offense hums with Caleb Williams.

720. Over the last three years, RB Khalil Herbert ranked 7th in yards per carry (4.9) & 10th in Explosive Run % (12%). He is one of the more intriguing dynasty RB stashes knowing that he has had relevance for fantasy when given the opportunity and his explosiveness with 3+ WRs on the field. Keep in mind he is in the final year of his rookie contract.

721. Roschon Johnson is coming off a rookie season in which he led CHI RBs in 3rd down snaps & snaps in pass protection. Now the 3rd RB on an offense that figures to run 3-wide all the time, he likely missed his window to be fantasy relevant.

722. Last year, D.J. Moore finished as the WR6 as the only show in town for Chicago. He finished with 136 targets for 96/1364/8 and the arrival of a rookie QB might scare some people off. He has played with a trillion different QBs in his six years in the NFL : Cam Newton, Kyle Allen, Will Grier, Teddy Bridgewater, PJ Walker, Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, Justin Fields & Tyson “Bilbo” Bagent.  He did have major splits last year in games with Justin Fields and Tyson Bagent with all nine of his TDs coming in Fields starts.

723. Speaking of TDs, that was always Moore‘s bugaboo in Carolina. Through his first four years in the NFL, he had 14 total receiving TDs and average a TD every 36 targets. Over the last two years, he has 15 averaging a TD reception every 17 targets.

724. Moore crushed man coverage (3.88 YPRR) and you probably remember that monster 8/230/3 game where he manhandled Washington en route to 45 fantasy points. That equated t 19% of his season total as his consistency score of a C revealed that he hit 10.5 fantasy points just 47% of the time.  Zone coverage was a bit of an issue ranking 34th among all WRs in YPRR (1.86).

725. This is a completely new offensive system that fits Moore’s skillset. Shifting from Luke Getsy’s High T ways to Shane Waldron’s pass-heavy approach from Seattle should do wonders. Moore spent 80% of his snaps out wide and he’s never coming off the field. He was much better in 3WR sets than 2WR:

• 2 WR sets– 46th in FPt/Route Run … the same as Darius Slayton.
• 3+ WR sets– 7th among WRs in FPt/Route Run … same as A.J. Brown.

726. The only WRs with more receiving yards than D.J. Moore with 3WRs on the field in 2023: Puka Nacua, CeeDee Lamb, AJ Brown, Ja’Marr Chase & Tyreek Hill. That’s it. The consistent part of his game is big plays & big YAC plays as he 1-of -7 WRs to average 12+ yards per reception each of the last six years. His career average is 14.3 Yards per Reception.

727. Keenan Allen is closing in on some historic company. With 904 career receptions, he could become the 15th member of the 1K reception club. His 6.5 receptions per game ranks 3rd all-time and #1 among WRs with 90+ career games played.

728. Last year, Keenan sported the third highest fantasy points per game (17) for a 31+ year old WR since 2011 (half-point leagues). His ADP is one of the reasons he’s always been one of my favorite players in the league staying in the same range for an entire decade! Scratch that, he still is my favorite player in the NFL but it will take some getting used to in a different uniform.

It's been a long journey, old friend. I know just where to find ya.

Same place. Every year. 😭 pic.twitter.com/qLh1tYR8Tl

— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) June 5, 2024

729. While his fantasy ceiling days are likely gone in this new offense, Keenan still excels in what NFL offenses need: zone busting. He averaged 5.2 receptions per game versus zone coverage, highest in the NFL. He led all WRs in ESPN’s Open Score a year ago. Expect steady PPR value but the days of 10+ reception weeks are probably gone.

730. Rome Odunze led the FBS in receiving yards for a reason. While the bully ball and 20+ yard receptions won’t always translate to the NFL, his body type should destroy man coverage and adjust to zone in time. His nine receiving TDs versus man led all WRs in this class and he was 2nd to Xavier Legette in Man YPRR.

731. Odunze is more Mike Evans than Mike Williams but the downfield usage is what draws a thread between different prospects with 35% of his targets being 20+ yards downfield. I mention those prospects because both were also drafted in the top-10 in their respective drafts.

732. We’ve seen 20 WRs taken in the top-10 over the last decade and their average Year 1 production (if you were to use per-game averages over 17 games) looks something like this:

733. The part of Odunze‘s game that is lacking is after-the-catch. Odunze ranked 33rd of 35 drafted rookie WRs in YAC/Reception better than only Brenden Rice & Bub Means.

734. Despite all of Odunze‘s imposing physical skills, contested catch rate is arguably the LEAST PREDICTIVE metric for WRs. Take D.K. Metcalf (maybe one of the best & easiest comps)

• 2022- 2nd in NFL in contested catches with 20… 48% catch rate on those
• 2023- 29% catch rate and less than HALF… only 9 catches

Odunze will need to do more than just win deep for this team.

735. Can the third WR for a rookie QB come through for fantasy purposes? Over the last SEVEN years, we’ve had 31 teams with 3 WRs drafted inside the top 60. The WR3 drafted from a team averaged 7.7 fantasy points per game and only SEVEN of those 31 WR3s averaged more than 10 fantasy points per game. In other words, 77% of the time. You didn’t hit ADP expectation.

736. There is excitement stemming from pre-season that this pass-happy approach could Waldron’s Seahawks only ran 11 personnel on first downs at a 42% clip, which ranked 23rd in the NFL.

737. TE Gerald Everett and Shane Waldron must have a legit friendship. Entering Year 8 with team #4, Everett was with Waldron for the 1st five years of his career in Los Angeles Rams and the Seattle Seahawks in 2021. Everett’s best season from a target share perspective? He had a 15% share in 2021 in Seattle with Waldron.

738. Cole Kmet was the TE7 in back-t0-back years thanks to TDs. He saw 27% of Chicago’s red zone targets, the highest percentage among all TEs in the NFL. You can kiss those rate stats goodbye as the competition for targets has heated up in Chicago.

739. Still only 25 years old and an ascending talent, we like Kmet as a player; but it’s going to be tough for him to replicate the 90 targets he saw last year as long as Moore, Allen, and Odunze are healthy. As I mentioned earlier, TE target shares usually are squeezed out when WR target shares are boosted. If Bears WRs see north of 64% of the targets (a top-10 number) it will be pretty hard for Kmet to see more than 70 targets especially with Everett along for the ride.

740. In preseason, the usage between these two TEs was stark: Everett played on third and long passing situations with Kmet totaling a 39% route participation with Caleb Williams on the field. It is wild considering the Bears are paying Kmet $9.9 million in base salary this year, tied with T.J. Hockenson for the most among all TEs in the NFL.

NFC South

741. This division is will have four new offensive coordinators for 2024 and all four of them are under the age of 40:

• Tampa Bay: Liam Coen, 38
• New Orleans: Klint Kubiak, 37
• Atlanta: Zac Robinson, 37
• Carolina: Brad Idzik, 32

742. This stat should be the OC turnover into perspective: All 32 NFL teams have a different OC than who was in the position at the end of the 2021 season. If you are a good OC, chances are within a year or two you are getting called up for the big job (i.e. Dave Canales, soon to be Bobby Slowik, Ben Johnson, etc.)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

743. After beating Philadelphia in the wild card round and bowing out to Detroit in the divisional round, it feels like we should be congratulating the Buccaneers for outpacing everyone’s expectation before the season when they had a 6.5 win total. Did they benefit from an easy schedule? Tampa Bay went 1-5 versus teams that made the playoffs and 8-3 versus non-playoff teams.

744. Much of their story was Baker limiting turnovers, posted highest comp % (64.3) of his career, and grinding out wins although they went 3-4 in one-score games. Spoiler alert: all four NFC South teams had losing records in one-score games last year.

745. Seriously, keep walking through the Buccaneers season and you kinda scratch your head realizing this team was good but not great at any one offensive statistic. They were 17th in time of possession, 12th in passing yards per game, and 19th in neutral pass rate. Ok, we got one: they had the 4th fewest games lost due to injury and the 2nd fewest among all offenses. To health!

746. The Buccaneers defense had the 9th best turnover margin which made up for the fact the passing game ranked 29th in both passing yards allowed and explosive pass rate allowed. The pressure put on opposing QBs was a Todd Bowles special as the Buccaneers blitzed at the 3rd highest rate in the NFL and ran typical Cover-3 at the 8th highest rate in the NFL. The secondary had issues allowing the 7th most fantasy points to slot WRs and the 6th most points overall to opposing WRs.

747. Snip! Snap! Snip! Snap! Coen went from Rams assistant to University of Kentucky OC back to being the Rams OC only to return to Kentucky last year. Welp, he’s back in the NFL this time replacing Dave Canales in Tampa Bay. It will be tough to follow up Baker Mayfield’s career year. Coen’s press conference have suggested more 11-personnel after the Buccaneers ran 2TEs on 36% of their 1st downs a year ago, the 5th highest rate in the NFL. Expect a Rams-lite system with more pre-snap motions and shifts.

748. After leading a Bucs offense that ranked 12th in EPA per play, 14th in yards per play, and 18th in points per game, it looks like it will be virtually the same crew available to Baker Mayfield in 2024. The Buccaneers have just nine total targets vacated, the fewest in the NFL.

749. In a contract year, Baker came through and was a steady (not spectacular) fantasy performer with eight top-12 finishes. It was the most passing TDs of his career (28- surpassed 27 from his rookie year)

750.  Mayfield sported the 5th highest aDOT in the NFL as he was was willing to chuck it deep! He tallied the most 20+ Air Yard Attempts in the NFL and 3rd most total air yards.

751. One of the challenging evaluations with Mayfield is the soft zone coverages he saw for most of the year. He saw zone coverage on a league-high 79.3% of dropbacks including Cover 6 almost 15% of the time. Continuing the trend of Canales QBs, he ranked 2nd in the NFL in passing TDs versus zone coverage.

752. Defenses never truly adjusted despite his splits. He actually struggled against middle of the field looks where both safeties were “open” (aka at or outside the hash marks) sporting the same fantasy points per dropback (0.39) as Gardner Minshew. While that comparison might be a bit stretching considering the career season Baker had, there are some red flags where regression could hit with his efficiency numbers.

753. Baker averaged 33 passing yards per game versus man coverage… DEAD last among starters. In fact, he had fewer total passing yards against man coverage than Zach Wilson. Part of those counting stats is the Buccaneers opponents stringent reliance on zone trying to beat Baker with looks with four DBs deep.

754. You saw Baker struggle (comparatively speaking) inside the red zone, where just 9.1% of his total completions occurred (26th among qualifying QBs). He was 23rd of 26 qualifying QBs (min. 50 dropbacks) in completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) inside the 20 which undersells the fact that he had the highest check down rate (10.8%) of any QB there (hello, Rachaad White managers!). and his pressure to sack % (21.2%) was 4th worst.

755. Red zone statistics can fluctuate year-to-year but keep in mind Baker’s performance there early in the season to see if new OC Liam Coen throws in a few wrinkles with more 11-personnel and Chris Godwin‘s eventual full-time move into the slot. Only 33% of the teams targets went to the slot but Buccaneers receivers ranked 8th in fantasy points per target to the slot.

756. Tampa Bay was not keen on making the run a thing. Their runner were “stuffed” at/behind the line on 51% of their rush att., the worst mark in the NFL. In fact, they totaled the fewest rushing 1st downs in the NFL… 55(!) of them. For all of Dave Canales excitement, the teams went from 32nd in the league in rushing to… wait for it… 32nd in his lone year as OC.

757. Rachaad White was one of the steals of the draft (7.02/RB28) and from Week 7 on, he was the RB2(!) in total fantasy points. He averaged 21.8 opportunities, 100+ total yards, and 15.9 fantasy points per game. He was consistent as a pass-catcher with the most routes run among RBs, the 4th most receptions, and the 3rd most receiving yards.

758. Despite that end of season finish, some of White’s efficiency numbers were concerning. His 3.64 yards per carry is the lowest for a top-15 RB over the last 5 years. His 0.70 fantasy points per opportunity was below the league average.

759. For context, 0.75 is the average among top-50 fantasy RBs over the last five years. I looked at the 14 RBs who finished top-10 BUT below league average in fantasy points per opportunity.  Like White, they had a good fantasy finish but their fantasy points per opportunity were league-average or worse. What did they do the next year? 13 of the 14 dropped in fantasy points per game! The average loss was -3.4 fantasy points per game. Only 3 of them remained in the top 10: 2020 Nick Chubb, 2021 Ezekiel Elliott, and 2023 Derrick Henry, three outlier TD guys.

760. White looks like the classic sputtering RB2 who could easily stay alive and volume his way to actual RB1 numbers again. However, rookie Bucky Irving might have something to say about that. His size (5’10”, 195) is very James Cook-esque and after catching 56 passes at Oregon last year, it’s clear he could have passing downs role. In my scouting process before the NFL Draft, I found that his cutbacks were solid and he hit the hole harder than you would think for a smaller guy. Cook was my high-end comp for Irving and it wouldn’t surprise me if a year from now Irving slices White’s dynasty value in half.

761. Inside the red zone, the distribution for the Buccaneers was much more spread out than you might’ve realized.

762. Mike Evans was a true fantasy godsend last year becoming the 5th 30+ year old WR to finish in the top-5 since 2008 joining Davante Adams (2022), Antonio Brown (2018), Jordy Nelson (2016), and Brandon Marshall (2015).

763. Evans led NFL with seven receiving TDs versus zone coverage and became one of the steals of fantasy drafts after going as WR33/7.05.

764. Despite seeing just four more targets than Chris Godwin, the difference against man coverage was stark as well.

765. There is some historical precedence for WRs like Evans this old going in the first three rounds:

766. Chris Godwin‘s move back into the slot should do wonders for his fantasy stock.

Rod God slot rate last three years:

2023: 37%
2022: 73%
2021: 70.4%

Godwin from the slot in 2023:
* 2.03 YPRR
* 28% TPRR

Quietly coming off his best mark in ESPN Open Score since 2018 https://t.co/Lxq4BtS1YF

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— Matthew Betz (@TheFantasyPT) July 9, 2024

767. Godwin has been a positive regression candidate in the TD department for two years straight. Going back to 2022, this dude has seen 272 targets, yet he’s scored a total of five TDs.  Based on his volume last year, his TD expectation was 6.2! His TD totals over last FIVE seasons: 9> 7 > 5 > 3 > 2.

768. As our own Matt Savoca wrote in Godwin’s Path to WR1 article, Godwin has averaged at least 3.0 YAC-per-reception in each of the last three seasons. His YAC-ability is something Coen was quoted in his introductory press conference: “You’ve got a guy like Chris [Godwin] that I think can be really dynamic on the inside. That’s where I envision him playing, is more on the inside, playing that ‘F’ position that ultimately Cooper [Kupp] played. A lot of things do run through that. So I’m excited about him.”

769. Rookie Jalen McMillan quietly out-produced Ja’Lynn Polk two years ago at Washington and led the team in receiving TDs during that 2022 campaign. He was injured in 2023 but it is worth noting 28.5% of his targets were behind the line of scrimmage, 3rd highest among this class.

McMillan quietly led Washington in receiving TDs in 2022 and was second in receiving yards behind Rome

Took a step back in 2023 as Polk emerged, but I think there’s something here. One of my favorite R18-20 picks https://t.co/qcZkrwt3sF

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— Matthew Betz (@TheFantasyPT) June 11, 2024

770. 2023 6th round pick Trey Palmer was an intriguing prospect (4.33 40-time) who had some moments in the slot as a rookie for the Buccaneers seeing 68 total targets and three scores. However, with Chris Godwin moving back into his preferred slot role and the team’s selection of Jalen McMillan in the 3rd round, Palmer likely will be fighting for snaps and scraps from this team’s passing pie.

771. The team had drastic differences in approach depending if they were in 12-personnel or not. With 3+ WRs on the field, Tampa Bay had the highest aDOT (9.1) in the NFL. With 2 TEs on the field, that aDOT dropped to 7.8 (18th) and the team dropped into the bottom-half in adjusted completion rate and completion percentage over expectation. Away with those 12-personnel looks between the 20s in 2024!

772. Count me among the biggest fans of Cade Otton. Why you ask? The dude is a cardio king running the 2nd most routes among all TEs willing to be on the field all the time with those taped-up hands.

raise your bare hands if you played the MOST Offensive Snaps (1,064) of any Tight End since 2015 👐 pic.twitter.com/adBaFI52T1

— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) July 22, 2024

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773. Ok jokes aside, Otton‘s 0.80 YPRR and 11.8% TPRR screams just another guy for fantasy football. He likely won’t be an integral part of this 3WR offense but keep in mind guys like Tyler Higbee were necessary to those Rams offenses when one of the top-3 WR options went down. Apart from TE premium leagues, he is just a name to punt with in DFS.

New Orleans Saints

774. Jason gave a spirited monologue at the Live show on Dennis Allen as a head coach. Before you go any further, I queued up the video for you as Jason walks through Allen’s coaching history from his days in Oakland with Derek Carr (8-28 record) to New Orleans the last two years (16-18).

775. The 2023 Saints tied for the 2nd BEST Turnover Margin (+11) in the NFL with the easiest strength of schedule… and yet, missed the playoffs and went a 3-6 in one-score games!

776. The offense had a hard team having consistent momentum and creating an identity. They ranked 19th in shotgun rate but a weird distribution all year long. They had the 4th highest pass rate on plays with 5-9 yards remaining but 5th lowest when 10+ yards were to go. Opposing defenses threw a ton of Cover-3 looks and the team responded by rolling over and playing dead ranking 31st in yards per attempt. The Saints sported the highest check down rate against blanket Cover-2 looks on a whopping 33% of their dropbacks.

777. Under former OC Pete Carmichael Jr., New Orleans was dead last in pre-snap motion, running an archaic scheme that wasn’t all that efficient. If we see this offense morph into a modern-day scheme where motion is an emphasis before the snap (as it was in SF), we could see the Saints put together a really nice season offensively.

How often offenses used motion on dropbacks (before and/or during snap). Usual suspects at the top and some new play callers on the low end pic.twitter.com/rWbFseHcLQ

— Football Insights 📊 (@fball_insights) August 1, 2024

778. The “defense” was supposed to be Dennis Allen’s pet project but after ranking 27th in pressure rate, 28th in sacks and 30th in explosive rush plays allowed, there were some leaky holes. Their saving grace? INTs. The Saints had the 3rd most interceptions in the NFL and 2nd round pick Kool-Aid McKinstry is another playmaker to add to this group.

779. One of the main problems was the inefficiency and a “bang your head into the wall” stubbornness of not utilizing play-action. Play-action and motion often go hand-in-hand as Derek Carr ranked dead last in play-action rate (14.8%) among all qualifying QBs. He was actually pretty good (71% completion rate, 4 TDs: 1 INT) but the team failed to utilize it even with quite clear splits with 2+ TEs.

780. Carr might have the most impressive middling resume of any QB in NFL history. Is he great? No way. Is he bad? No. He is straight-up baby bear: not too hot, and not too cold. With his 10th consecutive fantasy finish between QB13 and 20, it’s wild how consistent this guy is.

781. We do need to give Carr some credit as he balled out with a league-leading 12 passing TDs in his final four games and he ended up tied for the most 300+ yard passing games in the NFL.

782. The one area to key in on was Derek Carr with 2+ TEs on the field. The Saints ranked 6th in adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ahead of Miami!) and Carr resembled an actual NFL QB. In fact, he completed 70% of his passes with 2 or fewer WRs on the field. With the lack of high-end talent at WR3 on this roster, expect the new look offense to lean more into heavy sets.

783. For those championing for rookie QB Spencer Rattler, you might have to wait out this 2024 season. He did rank #1 in this class in adjusted completion percentahe (89 %) on play-action making him an interesting pairing with Klint Kubiak.

784. What kind of running game will we see from Kubiak? Coaching trees are always a bit tricky to parse through but “lil Kubes” not only inherits his father (Gary Kubiak) but the San Francisco/Kyle Shanahan emphasis on zone concepts. We do have a blueprint to work from as Kubiak’s 2021 Vikings were incredibly dependent on zone rushing schemes with Dalvin Cook. Those Vikings teams lined up in I-formation on 1st downs 27% of the time, the highest rate in the NFL. The Saints ran the ball with the QB under center 68% of the time last year, the 6th highest rate in the NFL.

785. Per Jacobs Gibbs of CBS, among 23 RBs with 150+ outside zone rush attempts over the past three seasons, Alvin Kamara ranks dead last in rushing EPA per outside zone rush. Yikes. The efficiency bottomed-out last year and while Kendre Miller might seem like a better fit in theory, he will not be given the reins of the offense.

786. The Saints averaged 3.63 a carry, tied with the Jaguars for 31st in the NFL. Just 2.9% of their runs went for 15+ yards, 31st in the NFL behind only the lowly Buccaneers.

787. Just to illustrate that point, according to Rich Hribar, the Saints became the 3rd team since the year 2000 — to not have a running back with a single run of 20+ yards in a season. They actually had four 20+ yard runs… they just so happened to come from some guy named Taysom Hill and Lynn Bowden Jr.

788. Saints RBs are counting for $28(!) million against the cap, most in the NFL. For context, #2 is the Panthers… at $16.4 million.

789. Alvin Kamara led all RBs in Targets per Game (6.6) and Receptions per Game (5.7). How often has he done that in his career?

790. He was essentially the WR1 in terms of targets per route run on this team. Kamara was targeted on an insane 32% of his routes, top-5 % among all players in NFL.

791. From Weeks 4-15, Kamara was the RB2(!) in total fantasy points scored! The only players to score more points in that span last year: CMC, CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill, and A.J. Brown… that’s it! Although some of the stat lines felt quite hollow like in Week 4, he caught 13 passes… for

792. Kamara turned 29 in July and he’s trending in the wrong direction in a couple of efficiency metrics:

• Yards Per Carry: 4.6 > 4.9 > 3.7 > 4.0 > 3.9
• Yards Per Target : 7.1 > 6.6 > 6.4 > 5.4

793. What do we do with Kamara? With the presence of Taysom Hill inside the 20, his scoring opportunities might be fewer than you’d imagine. 78% of his carries came under center last year, the 5th highest rate among all RBs and his yards per carry on those looks? 1.2! Against stacked fronts? 2.9 per carry. Consider him a PPR hybrid RB who can give you a high weekly floor and whose ceiling ultimately comes down to the overall success of the Saints offense. You might see more competition for targets in 2024.

794. This was supposed to be the place I reserved for Kendre Miller in this stat smorgsabord. However, since embarking on this 1,000 stat journey, it seems like Dennis Allen is committed to not only putting Miller on IR but erasing him from our memories.

RB Kendre Miller saw 14 opps in Week 18 vs ATL.

He doesn't turn 22 for another 37 days. And if it helps your brain, include him in this year's rookie RB class after he missed 9 games last year. pic.twitter.com/oaWE0kSnfp

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— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) May 5, 2024

796. Jamaal Williams parlayed his 17 rushing TDs with the Lions into a multi-year deal with the Saints despite turning 28. It was a season to forget in 2023 as he scored approxiamately 16 fewer rushing TDs with some truly atrocious averages. Among 60 RBs with 80+ touches, he ranked 60th in yards per touch at 2.96! How bad was that figure? Over the last decade, it ranks 643rd out of 646 RBs ahead of guys like Kalen Ballage (2019), Peyton Barber (2020), and LeGarrette Blount (2018).

797. You might be ready to throw JWilly into the fantasy trash and deem him irrelevant but consider a simple fact: he is still on this team in 2024. He is being paid.

798. Chris Olave led the NFL in contested catches on deep targets but it felt like Derek Carr and him were always never quite on the same page.

799. Since 2010, Olave is one of 21 WRs with 2000+ Rec Yards in their 1st two years and only DeAndre Hopkins (8) and Garrett Wilson (7) had fewer rec TDs (9)! Based on yardage expectation alone, Olave should have 3-4 more TDs.

800. Olave remains in the elite of the elite tier of WRs with 2.20+ YPRR through two years.

801. Olave has basically been right in line with Garrett Wilson through two years and yet he hasn’t been fully unleashed. Props to @DanJWhisner who provided this prospective on Olave on plays with motion: his 3.13 YPRR via Motion ranked 3rd among all WRs over the last 2 seasons. If we get Olave with easier layup targets and a slight boost in the TD department (think 7 or so), he could reach top-8 status in 2024. His ceiling is 1,500 receiving yards.

802. Through two years in the league, Rashid Shaheed has been an efficiency monster, averaging 16.3 yards per catch and 11.1 yards per target. His three top-12 fantasy performances through the 1st eight weeks of the season were as many as Olave had over the course of the entire year. His five top-24 weeks last year were as many as George Pickens had.

803. Shaheed averaged 1.76 fantasy points per target, tied with the likes of D.J. Moore and Ceedee Lamb! Rate statistics like that can be a bit misleading as earning a target also should be factord in and Shaheed’s 16.5% TPRR and 6.3% 1st down per route run were below average marks.

804. Shaheed looks locked into an every down role for a team that seems to want to shift more to 12 personnel looks. Shaheed’s numbers were boosted there (23.3% TPRR, 1.92 YPRR) but it is worth mentioning the smaller sample size of just 60 routes run. He seems like a viable 2nd FLEX in half point leagues knowing he likely will never be a high volume player.

805. A.T. Perry had a fine rookie year but don’t ask Dennis Allen about that! According to NextGenStats, AT Perry led all WRs in QB passer rating when targeted. While that little factoid with an incredibly small sample size is technically true, it does not mean he’ll be relevant for fantasy moving forward. He averaged just 1.8 targets per game and the bean pole 2nd year WR (6’5″, 205) likely will be floating on your waiver wires.

806. Ok, finally! Taysom Hill seems to be the one name Dennis Allen wants to gush about and it makes sense given new OC Klint Kubiak’s experience in San Francisco with do-it-all FBs and TEs. He techincally finished as the TE12 last year thanks to 81 rush attempts, 33 receptions and 11 pass attempts. Keep in mind that since 2020, he’s scored fewer than five fantasy points in over half his games.

807. It took awhile for the team to figure it out but Taysom‘s participation inside the red zone picked up dramatically in the 2nd half of the season:

• 1st 7 weeks- 9 rush attempts, 1 TD
• Final 9 games- 19 rush attempts, 5 TDs

If you are in a league where he is TE-eligible, picking him up ahead of Week 1 to see his usage seems like a prudent move.

808. TE Juwan Johnson caught  the right side of TD variance in Weeks 15-17 last year with three top-10 weekly finishes to finish the year. His 15% target share is nothing to shy away from but the team seemed willing to throw to any TE with a pulse. Remember that 37-year-old Jimmy Graham-pa scored four TDs last year!

809. Saints TEs sported the 2nd highest TD rate (9.9% of receptions), 3rd most receiving TDs (9), and 8th best 3rd down conversion rate. They did virtually nothing after the catch (30th) but so did the WRs (31st) on this team. Think of this group as an extension of what Derek Carr does best with his early down passing prowess.

• 12 personnel- 3rd in EPA per dropback for early downs
• 13 personnel- 3rd in EPA per dropback for early downs

Atlanta Falcons

810. Ok, now I finally get to the section where I can emotionally bare my soul. The Falcons went 4-6 in one score games last year thanks to tying for the 2nd worst turnover margin (-11) in the NFL. Falcons runners fumbled the ball a league-leading 14(!) times.

811. But good news is coming! The Falcons have Warren Sharp’s easiest strength of schedule in the NFL as they are projected for 9.5 wins and currently are favorites in 13 of their games. I won’t lie, I don’t feel comfortable as a fan being the division favorite. No jokes. It just usually doesn’t go our way…

812. The defense was especially stout against the run ranking 5th in fantasy points allowed to RBs and #1 in EPA per rush attempt. While the pass rush remained an area of concern (and concerning after the NFL Draft), the team traded for EDGE Matthew Judon to bolster the front seven.

813. Throw out the stats! Despite the 4th highest rush rate in the NFL, the Falcons ranked 28th in EPA per rush attempt thanks to Arthur Smith’s relentless desire to stick it all human beings that might oppose his ways. You really have no-one to blame but Arthur as the offense was the healthiest unit in football with the fewest games lost due to injury.

814. Raheem Morris won over the Atlanta organization with his competitive fire and the praise from other head coaches around the NFL. Morris was the interim head coach in Atlanta in 2020 before leading Sean McVay’s defense the last three years in Los Angeles. He is a players-focused guy, a vast shift from Arthur Smith’s draconian orders. How did defenses adjust to this type of predictable play-calling? Atlanta saw the 2nd highest rate of zone coverage (77%) and the highest rate of Cover 3 (39.5%) in the NFL.

815. Atlanta QBs ranked bottom-5 in adjusted completion percentage in 2-WR sets but Arthur stayed the course. Someone must’ve called the FBI as Atlanta ranked dead last in pass rate over expectation while criminally underutilizing their top playmakers. 

816. New OC Zac Robinson comes from the McVay coaching tree and his analytics background at Pro Football Focus gives you some hope that Atlanta is finally rescued from the doldrums of Arthur Smith. The 11-personnel rates are Pop Warner type percentages in case you have been living under a rock.

817. The offensive line is one of the saving graces of this team. They were the 3rd most expensive group in the NFL but finished the 2023 season ranked 4th in PFF’s end of season rankings. While 60% of the team’s runs were zone-based, they actually had a ton of success in man/gap concepts averaging 4.47 yards per carry and the 5th highest rush success rate.

818. It’s kinda overkill continuing to pile it on Desmond Ridder. But as both a Falcons fan and as someone who has gone through hundreds and hundreds of statistics already, why not keep going? Atlanta ranked #1 (pause… wait… is this a good thing?) in turnover worthy play rates. Oh. Yep, 6.2% of Falcons pass attempts could’ve, should’ve, or were turnovers. According to PFF, Ridder and Heinicke combined for 35 total turnover-worthy plays, the most since Jameis Winston and the Kyle Allen-led Panthers in 2019.

819. If you do want to look back on Ridder with any sort of silver lining, he did have three top-6 performances all at home. He averaged a respectable 17.8 fantasy points at home and twice ended up as the QB on the winning Milly Maker roster in DFS. Ridder at least made two people look smart!

820. Kirk Cousins fits what this team wants to do: operate with 3 WRs on the field and eviscerate zone looks from defenses. Cousins’ 73% completion rate versus zone was tops among QBs in 2023 and only Matthew Stafford averaged more passing yards per game than Cousins with 3+ WRs on the field.

821. We forget how good Cousins was last year before Week 8 Achilles injury: QB6 in fantasy averaging 291 yards, 2.3 passing TDs & 70% completion. Over the last 3 years, he’s averaged over 20 fantasy points per game through 8 weeks of the season so getting off to a hot start is kinda his thing.

822. Imagine explaining this before the NFL Draft: Michael Penix Jr. is taken 8th overall and yet his fantasy stock falls drastically. Falcons gonna falcon! Penix did rank #1 in this QB class in big-time throws on play-action. The team sat him in Week 2 of the preseason apparently seeing everything they needed to.

823. While Penix already had some warts to his prospect profile thanks to his age and multiple ACL surgeries, the landing spot is historically bad and downright confusing. Falcons GM Terry Fontenot made it clear that Penix could sit for multiple years behind Kirk Cousins. I’m sorry but even in a dynasty SuperFlex league, you are merely speculating and rolling the dice for playing time in Atlanta. Old QBs even if they are drafted in Round 2 are usually a bad bet.

My wife: “hey honey, how was the draft last night in AZ?”

My bosses: @andyholloway @jasonffl @FFHitman pic.twitter.com/osHxx1y9Bi

— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) April 26, 2024

 

824. Bijan Robinson might’ve disappointed based on expectations and hype for fantasy but he excelled as a receiver. He had the 2nd most routes run among RBs, 4th in receiving yards, and his 86 targets were the 7th most all-time for a rookie RB. He is one of eight rookie RBs with 270+ touches over the last decade.

825. Robinson had fewer carries (46) in 3+ WR sets but he averaged 5.8 yards per carry on them, 2nd only to Christian McCaffrey among RBs with 40+ attempts. To give a template, the Rams’ Kyren Williams saw a league-leading 223 carries with 3+ WR on the field.

826. The red zone touches were probably the biggest complaint from fantasy managers in 2023. While Bijan had the most among this group inside the 10, it is worth mentioning the Desmond Ridder led this team with five rushing TDs inside the 10 yard line on only six carries.

827. Only five RBs had more total yards than Bijan Robinson and he did that on 50.6% of ATL RB touches. The others ahead of him had 69.5%, 72.1%, 62.2%, 76.0%, & 76.1%. If Bijan were to see 60+ percent of the touches, top-5 is a locked-in reality. If he for some reason were to see 70+ percent, he has a real shot at dethroning CMC as the RB1 in fantasy.

828. Tyler Allgeier was a thorn in the side of Bijan Robinson managers last year. Despite Atlanta selecting Bijan 8th overall in the draft, Allgeier still had 209 opportunities and more carries inside the 5-yard line. As Atlanta moves away from a run-heavy approach, his fantasy stock certainly will take a hit.

828. How is the team going to utilize Allgeier? Some beat reporters are projecting a near 50-50 split inside the red zone, which might age Bijan managers another 10 years. Sean Siegele, in his annual Zero RB targets article, brought up this interesting comparison between Robinson and Allgeier’s rookie years showing how effective Allgeier was as a runner.

As an early down runner, he profiles as more than just a change of pace guy. His contingent upside might be one of the best in the NFL for fantasy purposes.

830. In 2023, Atlanta lined up in 11-personnel on 1st downs just 14% of the time, by far the lowest in the NFL. In fact, the three Arthur Smith-led Falcons ranked 222nd, 216th, and 214th out of 224 NFL teams over the last seven years in terms of 11-personnel rate. 

821. Heck, Atlanta averaged 34.8 passing yards per game with 3+ WRs on the field, dreadfully low. The next closest team in the NFL was Seattle at 117.7. In other words, throw out whatever stats and passing metrics this team had in 2023. Atlanta is getting a full rebrand on offense.

832. According to Ryan Heath at FantasyPoints.com, the past two seasons saw the Falcons average the second-worst catchable targets per game; in the same span, Kirk Cousins‘ Vikings boasted the second-best catchable target rate in the league.

833. Want a wild ride? Go ahead and watch all of Drake London‘s 110 targets from 2023. Only 80 of them were deemed “catchable” and if you watched them all, you might argue that figure down even more. 

834. Banished to running in 2WR sets only, Drake London has a number of true breakout signs glaring in your eyes for Year 3. New OC Zac Robinson should bring more 3WR sets over from the Sean McVay system. Over the last two seasons, London posted a solid a 2.47 YPRR number, albeit in only 230 combined routes.

835. London‘s 24.3% TPRR through two seasons ranks 10th best over the last decade. He might be undervalued based on managers assessing only what they’ve seen under Arthur Smith (six total TDs in two years & putrid QB play (Ridder) is leaving a stain) and not focusing on what London’s accomplishments could lead to.

836. In other words, London’s metrics are top tier and they signal a higher ceiling in 2024 and beyond as he still has yet to turn 23 years old. His 141 receptions rank 12th all-time for a WR before turning 23.

837. Falcons WRs totaled just 124/1650/4 last year. Context: CeeDee Lamb went 135/1749/12 by himself.

838. Darnell Mooney might feel like an afterthought when you consider all the excitement the fantasy community has for this Atlanta team. He is coming off a season in which he earned a target on just over 11% of his routes, and his yards per route run have declined in three straight years from a respectable 1.72 to 1.58 to 0.89 a year ago.

839. Mooney signed a 3-year, $39 million contract in free agency including $26M guaranteed over the next two years. In 3WR sets, he projects to have an every down role on an offense predicated on being able to stretch the defense with someone other than Kyle Pitts. The Bears used him as a YAC WR last year lowering his aDOT to a career low (11.3) but expect more intermediate and deep targets from him in 2024.

840. If there is one thing you should not expect from Mooney, it is blocking. He ranked dead last (138th out of 138) among WRs in PFF’s run-blocking grades. The Rams system does predicate itself on WRs who can double as run-blockers as evidenced by Los Angeles WRs dominating in PFF’s metric: Puka Nacua (#4), Demarcus Robinson (#8), Cooper Kupp (#9), and surprisingly, Tutu Atwell (#17).

841. Kyle Pitts led all tight ends in Air Yards (1,029 yards) and he finished with the highest aDOT (12.0) among qualifying tight ends. Despite these statistics, his most yards gained on a play was only 39 yards. Teammate Jonnu Smith had two plays that resulted in 50+ yards. 

842. 34% of Atlanta Falcons targets went to TEs  (#1 in the NFL) and new Falcons offensive coordinator Zac Robinson was quoted recently saying Kyle Pitts & Bijan Robinson have “formational versatility”. The Rams systems he was part of ran heavily 3WRs; will Pitts be used primarily as a slot WR?

843. Pitts did rank 4th among TEs in slot fantasy points & slot fantasy points per target.

844. In his young career, Pitts has lined up inline just 19.9% of the time. It’s fair to wonder how much playing time Mooney and whoever they put in at slot will see if Pitts’ slot and out wide usage continue on the trajectory we’ve seen in recent seasons. We need a Dalton Kincaid-esque role (60% of targets in the slot) with the type of consistent red zone looks (ala Jake Ferguson) to transform Pitts into a true fantasy monster.

844. One of the running jokes (which Jason used at the live show) was comparing Pitts to Kelce. Pitts still will not even turn 24 years old until October of this upcoming season. Travis Kelce caught his first pass in the NFL one month before turning 25 years old. Kelce had his first 1,000-yard season at age 27. Pitts did that at age 21. He’s worth the swing for the fences attitude one more time in full PPR leagues.

845. The Falcons signed former 49ers TEs Charlie Woerner and Ross Dwelley to play mostly in-line blocking roles. Woerner graded out as the 3rd highest run blocker among all TEs last year and his double-teamming during training camp with the OLine drew some excitement from guard Kaleb McGary.

Carolina Panthers

846. How bad was it last year for the Panthers? Per Warren Sharp, they did not have a 4th quarter lead during any game. Both of their wins were by FGs as time expired versus HOU & ATL.

847. Since 2018, it’s been a management disaster for owner Dave Tepper

• Ron Rivera- 1.5 years and then fired
• Matt Rhule- 2.5 years and then fired
• Frank Reich- Less than a year and then fired
• Dave Canales- 1st time head coach

It won’t be a cake walk in 2024 as Carolina is currently not favored in any of their 17 games.

848. Count me a Dave Canales fan. Go listen to his interview with Peter Schrager where he shares his journey from starting a high school weight room at his dad’s church to following Pete Carroll to Seattle to resurrecting the careers of Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield. The energetic coach will have his work cut out for him trying to elevate Bryce Young’s historically low yards per attempt with a roster void of top-end playmakers. The Panthers attack was downright barf worthy last year. Since 2000, Carolina’s 4.7 Yards per Pass Attempt ranked 763rd of 766 teams. 

849. The offense lacked any sense of continuity with the play caller changing multiple times and Frank Reich getting fired halfway through the year, and the offensive scheme was archaic in nature. In 2023, the Panthers ranked 29th in pre-snap motion and 30th in play action rate.

850. It’s tough sledding when your team is always playing from behind. To put that into perspective, consider the polar ends of their performance:

• They trailed by 7+ points on 69% of their offensive snaps, most in the NFL.
• They were leading by 7+ points on 34 TOTAL snaps, or just 3.1%.

851. Despite running 11-personnel at the 2nd highest rate in the NFL (71% on 1st downs), the team lacked any firepower or intimidation with defenses at the WR position. They basically ignored 2TE looks all year long with a total of 39 dropbacks including just two(!) completions inside the red zone with 2 or more TEs.

852. Running the ball? Yikes. 81% of their rush attempts were with 3+ WRs on the field, the 2nd highest rate in the NFL. How did they do you ask? The team averaged 4.2 yards per carry, 26th in the NFL.

853.Panthers RBs ranked 28th in yards before contact per attempt and carried the lowest TD rate (1.6%) in the NFL. They also spent a ton of money in free agency in an effort to improve PFF’s 29th ranked offensive line in 2023: $100 million for former Miami guard Robert Hunt and another $53 million for Seahawks guard Damien Lewis. Expect more 2TE sets with an extra blocker in as his Buccaneers employed 2TEs on 1st down over 30% of the time, something Carolina did just 10% of their 1st downs in 2023.

854. For all of the shine eminating off of Canales, his commitment to the running game could be his downfall. Quote from the combine: “I’m excited to prove to you how stubborn I can be in the run game… The intent of our offense is to run the ball.” Sounds great right? He said the exact same thing last year in Tampa Bay: “I think it’s just volume… We’re going to run it a lot, so they’ll get really good at that”. Did they? The Bucs ranked 32nd in yards per carry in 2022 and with Canales in 2023, they ranked (looks it up)… 32nd yet again. It wasn’t for a lack of effort because they tried to run the ball early in games. Tampa had the 2nd highest run rate on 1st downs in 1st half (55%) but… dead last in almost every early down rushing metric.

855. Is there a consistent thread from Seattle to Tampa Bay to now Carolina? Where did those QBs succeed and what type of improvement can we expect from Bryce Young? Bryce Young may have been taken at the 1.01 in the NFL Draft but he turned in one of the worst rookie QB seasons since 2000. Among 44 rookie QBs with 12+ starts, he ranks 43rd in sack rate, 40th in yards per attempt, 44th in yards per completion, and 36th in pass success rate.

856. I painfully found out Young failed to throw a TD of more than 20+ yards:

Bryce Young TD passes by distance in 2023:

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66 yards (Pick-6 to the Colts)
49 yards (also Pick-6 to Colts)
30 yards (oh, that was a Pick-6 to the Cowboys)
….
….
…. (oh you wanted to the Panthers?)
18 yards
11
10
8
5
4
4
3
1
1
1

— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) March 15, 2024

857. How bad was Bryce Young against zone? Welp, I hate to report but he threw as many TDs as a professional NFL QB last year against zone as your great great great grandmother. ZERO. Yep, against Cover 2, 3, 4, and 6 he put up an old goose egg.

858. Despite throwing 11 TDs, ten of them came against man and the other one a bubble screen TD to D.J. Chark in Week 9 versus Indianapolis.  Young‘s 0.21 fantasy points per dropback ranked dead last in the NFL and he struggled mightily against two deep looks. 

859. This is where I did a bit of deep soul searching. Let’s connect the dots to see where Young could improve. Geno Smith… Baker Mayfield… Bryce Young. Yep, the biggest adjustment in the first year with Canales was these QBs slaying against zone.

860. It was an onslaught of opposing defenses lining up in zone looks and daring Bryce to pick them apart. The issue wasn’t so much can he do it but was anyone open? This might be the flattest distribution of WRs targeted versus zone as the Panthers were the only team in the NFL without a single pass-catcher targeted on more than 20% of their routes versus zone (min. 20 targets). Seriously, do not show this list to your friends or family.

861. Adam Thielen was a necessary part of an unnecessary, lost season in Carolina. His 103 receptions were the 2nd highest of his career. He became the 14th 32+ year old to go for over 100 in a season joining Jerry Rice (x3), Ed McCaffrey, Jimmy Smith, Derrick Mason, Reggie Wayne (x2),  Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald (x3) and Julian Edelman

862. Ok, so is there hope for Young? As a passer, there is room for him to progress as the organization upgraded his passing options.  He ranked dead last among all QBs in fantasy points per dropback on plays outside the pocket so nowhere to go but up, right? However, we will need to see an uptick in his overall rushing yardage to get him into top-15 territory. He averaged 8.4 yards per scramble (same rate as Justin Fields) but the team called just eight total designed runs which amounted to -6 rushing yards, zero rushing TDs and two fumbles. If he can up his rush attempts from 2.4 per game to 4, that might cross the 20 yard per game barrier and soften the blow from weekly turnovers.

863. Diontae Johnson’s presence certainly helps as he’s been a regular on ESPN’s Open Score metric for years. The soon-to-be 28 year old has the 6th most total targets among WRs over the last four years.

864. OC Brad Idzik (and former college WR) coached alongside Dave Canales for the last five years from Seattle to Tampa Bay and now Carolina. Canales will be the primary play-caller as best buddy Brad gets to hold the clipboard and wave. Idzik shared that Johnson would occupy the coveted X-role for this offense. Per PFF’s Nathan Jahnke, lead X roles have averaged 12.6 PPR points per game since 2014 with the highest % of top-12 weeks among any position at WR. 

865. Canales was quoted, “As we build our offense, we will really try to feature someone — and for us right now, it’s ‘Where’s Diontae Johnson at?’”  via The Associated Press. Diontae averaged only 6.7 targets per game last year turning in a WR43 campaign. In this offense, if he is the #1 option, there is room for a top-24 finish. We have him down for just over 80 receptions in the UDK and he will need to cross six TDs to sniff that WR2 territory.

866. Xavier Legette cranks out the quotables for the Panthers social media team. There are literally zero comps in my database of a player breaking out in Year 5 of college after this little production. His late breakout age (22.6) is the 2nd latest of any WR drafted in Rounds 1-3 over the last decade. 

867. But the opportunity and Legette‘s success versus zone coverage (2.99 YPRR) is something this Carolina team desperately needs. He looked explosive in preseason but it’s hard envisioning him with an every down role right from the get-go. In redraft, he is the perfect player to wait-and-see the snaps in Week 1 while being able to drop if needed.

868. Oh, you were looking for Jonathan Mingo propaganda! You’ve come to the wrong place. Mingo surprisingly was taken 39th overall by the Panthers despite a suspect college resume, especially against zone coverages. Welp, he followed suit in the NFL posting a 0.93 YPRR versus zone and a barf-worthy 0.78 overall YPRR. How bad is that? It’s the worst over the last decade for any Round 1-3 WR with 75+ targets. It was a horrendous Carolina team that fired their coach early on and ranked dead last in points per game and total yards. Since 2000, Carolina’s 4.7 team yards per pass attempt ranked 763rd of 766 teams. Woof. Does anybody come back from being this bad? It is not just a rarity… it simply doesn’t happen.

869. Hey, you haven’t talked about Jonathon Brooks yet! The 2nd round rookie RB redshirted at Texas behind Bijan Robinson and tore his right ACL in 2023. He runs with effortless, light feet (the opposite of Isiah Pacheco) and his breakout age of 19.1 is the best in this class.  While the Panthers offense does give us some paws (see what we did there), Brooks was selected as the RB1 and only RB taken in the first two rounds of the NFL Draft. The excitement is there but we caution you to pump the brakes with HC Dave Canales stating he would be “close to ready Week 3 or 4”. 

870. Can Brooks be a late season hammer? Stashing him in your IR spot certainly can be a prudent move if your league allows it. As Kurt Mullen shares in Rookie RB Values in the “RB Dead Zone”, since 2018, there have been 111 RBs taken in redraft leagues from rounds four to eight and rookies have typically performed much better than the veterans taken in the same range! Dave Canales peppered his RBs with targets (82 to Tampa Bay RBs) giving Brooks a shot at a consistent floor if he can breakthrough ahead of Chuba Hubbard.

871. We mention this stat every year: At least TWO rookie RBs have finished inside the top-24 every year since 2012. It can be easy to connect the dots and assume Brooks will be one of them. For every breakout rookie RB, there is a massive list of guys in Year 1 who disappointed at their ADP. Since 2011, 29 RBs were selected in Round 2 of the NFL Draft. Only 47% beat their ADP. Just 12 of them finished at or above where Brooks is being drafted.

872. With an emphasis on the run game, Chuba Hubbard should not be completely abandoned in our minds as he heads into a contract year. Thanks to performance escalators in his rookie contract of hitting 35+ % of snaps through two seasons, Chuba has a base salary of $3.1 million in 2024. 

873. Chuba was the RB9 from Weeks 12-18 averaging more fantasy points per game (13.3) than Jahmyr Gibbs (12.9) in that span. If you are trying to cobble together a Zero RB squad, Chuba should give you some run over the first month of the season. Three of his opening five matchups are against bottom-12 defenses:

• Week 2 vs LAC- 11th most fantasy points
• Week 3 @ LV- 9th most
• Week 5 @ CHI- 10th most

874. Miles “Moneybags” Sanders has the 4th highest cap hit of any RB in the NFL ($7.7 million) in 2024 and it seems like Carolina is going to just eat that salary and move on in 2025. He had one TD in the 1st month of the season, a shoulder injury in Week 5, and then averaged less than 30 yards per game for the rest of the season.

875. At TE, 4th round pick Ja’Tavion Sanders averaged a solid 7.7 YAC/Reception and 1.86 YPRR in final season playing next to AD Mitchell and Xavier Worthy at Texas. Keep in mind how irrelevant the CAR TE position was in the offense last year accounting for just 17% of the team’s completions, tied for 5th lowest in the NFL. Sanders should be splitting time with Tommy Tremble and veteran Ian Thomas. None of them are fantasy relevant.

876. In scouting Sanders, my scouting notes from our TE prospect episode include “his feet are so choppy, “the motor” needs 2-3 cranks, and good YAC ability once speed builds up”. He didn’t test particularly well considering he was the #1 athlete in the nation and 5 star recruit when coming out of high school. His breakout age (19.4) sounds appealing but his poor marks against zone (1.65 YPRR) suggest he could just be another guy in Year 1 as he learns the NFL system.

NFC West

San Francisco 49ers

877. After teasing 49ers fans yet again with a near Super Bowl win, San Francisco is essentially “re-rolling” for their offense in 2024. In fact, the only guaranteed money given to the offensive side of the ball was Center/Guard Jon Feliciano ($2.15 million), QB Joshua Dobbs ($2.25 million), WR Chris Conley ($460K), and old man Logan Thomas ($300K). The NFC West in general did not have any bigger splashes in free agency on the offensive side of the ball with the least free agency money spent.

878. The 49ers have an 11.5 projected win total per DraftKings Sportsbook, tied with the Chiefs for the most in the NFL. If you need some historical context, here are the teams that opened with an 11+ win total since 2021, and how they performed.

879. Despite currently being favored in 17 of their 17 games, the 49ers are set up with a brutal schedule with a -16 rest day differential.

880. Imagine sharing with someone that the team with the slowest pace of play, the lowest no-huddle rate, and the lowest pass rate in the league would rank #2 in points per game and #2 in total yards. San Francisco dominated teams with the 2nd highest rush rate in both the first half and second half of games.

881. Much of that efficiency was the versatility presented in their personnel packages ranking 2nd in 21 personnel (2 RBs) at 48% thanks to FB Kyle Jusczyk. 50% of their dropbacks were with two or fewer WRs on the field, the 2nd most in the NFL.

882. However, 2023 was Kyle Shanahan’s best year utilizing 11-personnel ranking #1 in EPA per play, #1 in pass success rate, and #1 in yards per play.

883. Perhaps the biggest mark of efficiency is the fact this team ranked dead last in passing attempts (28.8 per game) and yet 2nd in passing TDs and 4th in total passing yards. They became one of seven teams over the last decade with 30+ passing TDs despite attempting fewer than 500 attempts in a season.

884. For context, the average pass attempts for a 30+ TD passer in that span was 588 attempts. Among the 84 teams to accomplish that passing 30-TD plateau, the 49ers ranked #1 in Yards per attempt, net yards per attempt, and 2nd in yards per completion.

885. In fact, Brock Purdy put up the 2nd best yards per attempt season of all-time:

886. Purdy had the MVP in his hands (-250 heading into Week 16)  averaging 23.3 fantasy points per game and 2.8 passing TDs in the six weeks leading up to the Baltimore Game. Regardless of that debacle, he finished 3rd in passing TDs and fantasy points per dropback and produced nine games of 20+ fantasy points, one more than Dak Prescott. 

887. You might think Purdy was just a product of the weapons around him, a true sum of his parts kind of player. Whether he just had a Nick Foles-ian season or is turning into Kurt Warner, we need to realize how accurate he was. He ranked #1 in Play-Action Completion % and perhaps more impressive, #1 in Deep Ball Completion Rate at 63.8 %. How good is that? It is the highest ever among all qualifying QBs… EVER. As in of all-time, or at least from the data we have since 2008.

888. Purdy was excellent outside the pocket tying Josh Allen for the most TD passes with albeit on only 80 total dropbacks. Unless you think Purdy somehow gets the yips (to use a baseball reference), his command of this offense and the weapons here are too powerful to doubt him in 2024. He is a low-end QB1 with upside to finish once again in the top-6.

889. In his age-27 season, McCaffrey set career-highs in rushing yards (1,459), yards per carry (5.4), 10+ yard runs (44), and total TDs (21). His 12 finishes inside the top-10 were four more than the next closest RBs, Breece Hall and Kyren Williams.

890. He now owns the most seasons of 24+ PPR points per game in the history of fantasy football. This is the hall of fame for fantasy and he now sits above them all: Marshall Faulk, LaDainian Tomlinson, Todd Gurley, and now CMC.

891. Since 2017, here are the RBs to have 50+% great (20+ fpts), 90+% good games (10+ fpts), and 0% bust (<8 fpts) games since 2017: 2018 Todd Gurley, 2019 Christian McCaffrey, and 2023 Christian McCaffrey. He is not from this world.

892. It didn’t really matter what defenses threw at CMC. With 6 or fewer defenders in the box, he averaged 6.0 yards per carry. 7 defenders? He averaged 5.0. 8+ you ask? He actually was better at 5.1 despite the fact 82% of the time, defenses used heavy boxes on his early down runs.

893. The diversity of their running game is what we should be marveling. While heavy sets was obviously their thing, San Francisco RBs averaged 5.95 yards per carry in 11-personnel. CMC himself led all RBs in in the NFL in yards per carry with 3+ WRs but that stat probably doesn’t shock you.

894. Over the last four years, the 49ers ranked #1, #2, #1 and #1 in YAC per completion. You can thank Deebo Samuel for that as his 8.7 YAC per reception average once again paced the league. For context, here is where he ranks among all WRs over the last five years putting up five of the top-8 seasons.

895. Deebo as a runner is another cheat code fantasy managers have available in their pocket. In his career, he is averaged 1.32 fantasy points per rush attempt. For context, Christian McCaffrey (perhaps you’ve heard of him) is averaging 0.68 fantasy points per rush.

896. For all of the off-season hoopla with his 49ers teammate, Deebo has played in just TWO regular season games without Aiyuk in his career but balled out in both:

• Week 9 of 2020- 13 tgts for 11/133/0
• Week 3 of 2023- 12 tgts for 6/129/1

897. Deebo missed Weeks 7-8 with a shoulder injury but after the Week 9 bye, he went on an absolute tear and helped fantasy managers make a push for the playoffs. From Weeks 10-17, Samuel was fantasy’s WR2 behind only CeeDee Lamb. For context, only four WRs averaged 18+ fantasy points per game in that sample – Lamb, Deebo, Keenan Allen, and Tyreek Hill. When he’s on the field, he is a WR1 for fantasy.

898. We cannot undersell the historic season that Brandon Aiyuk put up as one of the few WRs since 2006 who can lay claim to a season over 3.00 YPRR. He is the only WR since 2000 to put up 1300+ receiving yards on fewer than 110 targets.

899. The glaring statistic to point out is the lack of target domination he had on the league’s lowest volume passing attack. He was targeted on just 22.6% of his routes and yet finished with the 7th most receiving yards. He made the most of his opportunities while tying MVS for 51st in routes run at the WR position. Here are some names that ran more routes than Aiyuk last year: Allen Lazard, Tyler Conklin, Tyler Higbee, and Trey Palmer.

900. Aiyuk destroyed in a number of 1st down-related metrics that show you just how special of a season he had. 81% of his receptions went for a 1st down (#1 in the NFL) and if you look at routes, only Tyreek Hill had a higher 1st Downs per Route Run number (14.8%) than Aiyuk.

901. Aiyuk dropped just one pass on 103 targets and finished behind only George Pickens (18.1) in yards per reception (17.9) among WRs with 35+ targets. Think about that!

902. All of that sounds like a glowing review of 2023… what about 2024? Is that sustainable? Can a WR on the league’s lowest volume passing attack continue to post other-worldly efficiency marks and finish as a top-15 option again? Apart from the off-season contract dispute, the historical outlook says to be cautious. We’ve had 12 WRs since 2000 put up 1300+ yards on fewer than 80 receptions like Aiyuk. All of them regressed in yards per reception, receiving yards, and touchdowns.

903. After posting the 5th highest success rate (70.5%) since 2000, there is an expected regression to build into your projections. Those WRs listed above lost 14 first downs on average and 7.6% on their receiving success rate, which would be more in line with his career average (62.2%). In order for Aiyuk to take the next step into top-10 tier status, he would need an injury to a fellow pass-catcher or San Francisco to move closer to 20th in pass rate.

904. If you can’t decide between Deebo and Aiyuk, consider their usage inside the red zone where Deebo saw 30% of the team’s 1st reads.

905. Jauan Jennings had some meaningful plays in the Super Bowl and was rewarded with a two-year contract with $10.5 million guaranteed. He has just 78 total receptions through three seasons and four total top-24 performances in that span. Jennings is frequently one of those players who pops up with massive snap percentages on a week (see his Week 8 cardio king adventure with 33 routes run and zero targets) thanks to Kyle Shanahan’s obsession with using WRs in the run blocking game. Among 138 WRs wiht at least 80+ blocking snaps, Jennings ranked #3 in PFF’s grading system behind only Jake Bobo (#2), and teammate Brandon Aiyuk (#1).

906. The selection of Florida WR Ricky Pearsall at 31st overall was an unexpected journey for a team already loaded with pass-catchers. He showed out in the combine process posting a 4.41 40-time (85th percentile) and 42″ vertical (98th percentile). You likely remember his insane one-handed catch but keep in mind, Pearsall became the oldest 1st round WR drafted over the last decade.

907. If we extend that to WRs drafted in Rounds 1-3 since 2014, Pearsall is younger than only five other WRs: Velus Jones Jr., D’Wayne Eskridge, John Brown, Cooper Kupp, and Van Jefferson.

908. Age concerns aside, how will he fit into this offense coming off a hamstring injury? He made his mark as more than a PPR option at Florida with a 58% catch rate on targets 10+ yards downfield, 4th best among WRs in this class. Consider him the direct backup to Aiyuk (unless he is traded) knowing he will have to prove himself as a blocker on a team that could lead the NFL in dropbacks with 2 or fewer WRs on the field. Jason is the most bullish statting him out as a top-60 WR while Andy and Mike make it clear you should let someone else take the gamble at draft time.

909. 4th round rookie Jacob Cowing was a production monster catching 314 balls over five years at UTEP and Arizona. Only 2 WRs in this class with a career TPRR of 28+%: Cowing & some guy named Marvin Harrison. However, as an older, slot-only prospect, he would need pure volume to make noise and this 49ers team seems like arguably the worst spot in the NFL for his skillset. The 49ers ran the fewest slot routes of any team in the NFL averaging just 44 combined as a team per game. For context, the league average was 60 per game. However, they also ranked #1 in slot fantasy points per target (1.85) leaning into efficiency over pure passing volume.

910. Hopefully you’ve had a chance to absorb as much George Kittle as possible watching Receiver on NetFlix. He led all TEs in receiving yards (1,020), 20+ yard plays (18), and yards per route run (2.22) in 2023. Despite finishing as a top-5 TE in five of his last six seasons, Kittle remains a tough click due to the ups and downs of playing him. However, in Best Ball formats, he’s been a top-5 TE every single year of his career according to Corey Buschlen. He’s been TE25 or worse in 31% of his games over the last three years, only ninth best among TEs in that span.

912. You know all about his ability as a blocker but he’s slowly trended in a good direction (for fantasy) as a pass blocker. Kittle blocked on just 7.1% of San Francisco pass plays last year, and only 71 total the last two years. In context, he nearly doubled that rate the first five years of his career at 13.2%. We want TEs who run routes knowing the higher the rate, the fewer opportunities for fantasy points. If you are pass blocking, you are not running a route. If you are not running a route, you can’t get targeted.

913. The opportunity cost this year seems to be a common theme among TEs. I mentioned earlier this is the lowest we’ve had Kelce in a long time and Kittle is very much the same in ADP.

914. The 49ers did not re-sign two longtime blocking TEs (Charlie Woerner and Ross Dwelley) who both went to Atlanta. Former Atlanta Falcon Eric Saubert will join Kittle after he spent the last couple of years bouncing around with Denver and last year Dallas and Houston. Among TEs with 80+ blocking opportunities in 2023, PFF graded Saubert as 12th best run-blocker while keeping in mind Kittle (#1) and Woerner (#3) absolutely mauled in the running game. The only other TE who has a pass block last year was Brayden Willis. That one pass block (yep it was just once) turned into a hurry and pressure from the defense. The team took Alabama’s Cameron Latu 101st overall in last year’s draft and after a season-ending knee injury in Week 1, he is also in the mix.

Los Angeles Rams

915. The Rams double-digit win season felt like a bumpy road due to injuries but zoom out, they had the fewest “games lost” in the NFL according to Football Outsiders.

• Offense- 4th fewest games lost
• Defense- fewest games including 2nd fewest for their secondary

It felt like their options were always banged up but Sean McVay held down the fort for most of the year.

916. When Kyren Williams returned from IR in Week 12, the Rams started rolling as the Rams averaged 31 points per game and Stafford had five straight top-12 performances. His efficiency (59% to 67%) and passing yardage (251 per game to 284) skyrocketed.

917. In that span, you could see how Los Angeles intended to play all year long controlling the clock and dominating:

• #1 in points per game
• #2 in yards per game
• #2 in red zone TD rate
• #6 in explosive pass plays despite being 27th in pass rate

918. Stafford recently turned 36 years old. Since 2011, only five quarterbacks finished in top-10 during age 36 season:

919. The opening schedule for Stafford is one worth shooting for at the end of drafts if you want to buy into game totals. The Rams join the Bills as the only teams to have totals above 47 points each of the 1st five weeks of the season.

920. The defense ranked 7th in Cover-3 rate while also mixing in Cover-6 15% of the time. The staples of the Raheem Morris last year were an increase in blitzing while recognizing that the team totaled only 41 sacks, 23rd in the NFL. All-timer Aaron Donald is now retired and the team drafted EDGE Jared Verse and DT Braden Fiske to try and “recreate this in the aggregate”. CB Tre’Davious White carries a big name but he is far removed from the lockdown corner he used to be. Overall, it is a serviceable group without the same intimidating identity it used to have. Consider this a great thing for fantasy purposes and shootouts.

921. Part of the appeal of the McVay system is the creativity as the Rams ranked 2nd in pre-snap motion and #1 in pace of play and yet maintained a consistency running the ball. They ranked 16th in neutral pass rate and still led the NFL with 435 rush attempts with 3+ WRs on the field.

922. With 11-personnel being everything to this team, running the ball out of those sets was also set on “default”. Although their man/gap scheme success rate was just 23rd in the NFL (45.6%), they crushed in zone with the 3rd highest rush success rate (59.4%) behind only the Falcons and Bills.

923. Oh baby, Kyren Williams was a revelation. He was the 1st RB to go undrafted by fantasy managers and finish with 20+ fantasy points points per game. He joined Priest Holmes as the only RBs to score 15 total TDs in 12 or fewer games over the last 40 years.

924. It may seem like Kyren came out of nowhere but over the last eight years, 19 Day 3/UDFA RBs finished as an RB1 for fantasy. ALL of them averaged fewer fantasy points per game the year after. The average decline? -3.4 fantasy points per game. Only TWO (Austin Ekeler & Aaron Jones) finished as top-12 RBs the year after. Now, keep in mind this Day 3/UDFA bucket is a factoid as draft capital for analysis is an irrelevant point for actual NFL teams a couple of years in.

925. Kyren saw 37% of the Rams’ team rush attempts and targets with only CMC and Josh Jacobs hitting a higher percentage among RBs this year. From Weeks 13-17, Kyren had 128(!) touches; that was the 7th most for any RB over the last decade over their final five games of the season.

926. Was Kyren a one-year wonder kinda thing? 37.3% of his fantasy points came via TD; since 2018, the average for a top-12 RB: 29%. No matter how you look at it, touchdowns are a good thing. We want touchdowns and an offense predicated with feeding a RB AND giving him the rock inside the 10-zone is gold for fantasy. It is worth cautioning that among top-12 RBs with 35+ % (like Kyren), ALL except ONE dropped in fantasy points per game. The average decline was 4.9 fantasy points per game so it seems like a good bet for slight regression.

927. 3rd round rookie Blake Corum’s TD production is hard to argue against and we’ve found that the stickiest of stats from college for RBs… is touchdowns. His 58 rushing TDs didn’t just happen out of nowhere thanks to 675 career attempts.

928. Since 1999, only seven RBs 5’8 or shorter drafted in Rounds 1-3: CEH, Singletary, Darrell Henderson, Lamichael James, MJD, Garrett Wolfe, Kevin Faulk, and now Corum. That doesn’t sound very advanced or thought-provoking but if an NFL team sees him as a future Maurice Jones-Drew (one of the few size comps), so be it.

929. Puka Nacua rewrote the record book with the most receptions, receiving yards, and 1st downs ever for a rookie. He broke Randy Moss & Ja’Marr Chase’s rookie fantasy records with seven top-12 finishes (most ever for a rookie) and nine games of 15+ fantasy points (also the most ever).

930. In case you wanted to know his per-route numbers, Puka‘s 2.59 YPRR is the 4th best for a rookie (min. 50 targets) over the last decade behind only Odell Beckham Jr., A.J. Brown, and Justin Jefferson. Not bad for a 5th round dude. We have him ranked as a top-5 dynasty WR.

931. Puka was the alpha (compared to Cooper Kupp) when both were on the field together with Matthew Stafford: a 30% target share. However, it is worth noting that trio was on the field running a route on only 322 of 1080 offensive plays. Yes, you read that correctly; 29.8% of Rams plays last year had Stafford throwing the ball with Kupp and Nacua both running a route. Those two accounted for 55.9% of the targets though on those plays.

932. Can both be WR1s for fantasy? Andy explored this as part of his Bold Predictions  at the LA Live Show. There have been SIX pairs who both finished in the top-12 since 2018:

• Antonio Brown & Juju in 2018
• Evans & Godwin in 2019
• ADAM Thielen did it twice! Stefon Diggs in 2018, with rookie Justin Jefferson in 2020
• Tyreek & Waddle did it in 2022
• AJ Brown & DeVonta Smith in 2022

What did all of those teams have in common?Consolidation of the targets. There were two options and the targets were funneled there! Those pairs averaged over 50% of the team’s targets. Last year, Puka had a 28.8% target share in 17 games and Kupp, 25.5% target share in 12 games.

933. It can be easy to move on from Cooper Kupp thinking he is toast. He still posted high-end WR2 on a per-route/per-game basis although comparing to 2021 is a fool’s errand:

934. The two areas Kupp edged out Nacua last year: in the slot and inside the red zone.

According to our Red Zone Report, Kupp owned 31.7% of the red zone looks while Puka was slightly behind at 28.7%.

935. The news in camp is that the “offense runs through Cooper Kupp” making him an intriguing WR2 pick, a price we used to pay 3-4 years ago.

936. WR3 Demarcus Robinson was re-signed to a one-year deal. He was quietly pretty good for the Rams last year as the WR3, especially down the stretch. In fact, he led the team in end zone targets from Week 12 on after he overtook Tutu Atwell for the WR3 job while adding a 17.5% target share. With Tyler Higbee coming off a late-season torn ACL, Robinson could be involved yet again behind Puka and Kupp.

937. How skewed was this team with 3+ WRs on the field? They totaled five completion and 74 passing yards with 2 or fewer WRs on the field, the lowest in the NFL.

938. Rookie 6th round pick Jordan Whittington is receiving some hype in camp causing everyone and their mama to make “this year’s Puka” references. He caght 6 passes for 74 yards in Week 1 of the preseason and the hysteria got out of control as if we could simply copy and paste Puka. Unfortunately, Whittington’s production profile looks nothing like Puka’s.

His production profile during FIVE years at Texas… not eye-popping failing to surpass 20% of the team’s receptions. Whittington is a fun dynasty stash but likely won’t have a major role in Year 1.

939. There is some stirrings among Rams beat reporters (you need to follow Jourdan Rodrigue if you don’t already) that there might be more 12 personnel looks this year. Colby Parkinson stays in division signing a three-year deal with $15.5 million guaranteed. It is the most of any offensive free agent in the NFC West this off-season. Last year, he was used as an in-line TE on 55% of his offensive snaps and sat with the rest of the Rams starters in preseason.

940. Unfortunately, the Rams ranked dead last in TE Target Share (12%) making any “he could replace Tyler Higbee” stirrings likely pure doo doo. Higbee took a brutal hit to his knee in the playoffs, tearing his ACL in the process. Davis Allen filled in for injured TE down the stretch including a 4/50/1 week against Baltimore. He is the most athletic TE to bet on (96th percentile explosiveness score) if you have to pick between the two for dynasty.

Seattle Seahawks

941. The Seahawks moved on from the oldest head coach in the NFL (Pete Carroll- 72) to someone half his age in Macdonald (36). The former Ravens defensive coordinator will need to remake this squad after they ranked 28th in points per game allowed and 30th in expected points per play.

942. The selling points for Seattle’s offense are clear: they hit the wrong side of variance last year ranking 4th in pace, 7th in pass rate, 11th in yards per play … but dead last in time of possession percentage. Seattle had the ball just 44% of the time, the 2nd lowest of any team over the last 5 years. That isn’t necessarily a sticky year-to-year stat, especially with the offensive scheme changes. 

943.  Let’s keep going with the weirdness. They had the fewest plays per game in the NFL despite 5th fewest turnovers. The Seahawks had the 2nd fewest drives ending in a punt or turnover (behind only the 49ers) but, they ranked 26th in Red Zone TD Rate.

944. Macdonald will be in charge of turning around a defense that pooped the bed in a couple of categories. Seattle allowed 380 1st downs, 13th most of any team over the last decade. Here is how they stacked up in 2023:

• 32nd in 1st downs allowed
• 28th in points per game allowed
• 30th in total yards per game
• 31st in rushing yards allowed

He is known for being a defensive guru preaching “positionless” defenses. The CBs are in place (Tariq Woolen & Devon Witherspoon) to lock down the outside but a major improvement shutting down the run will be needed.

945. After being the offensive coordinator at the University of Washington the last two seasons, Grubb decided he wanted to work a mere 15 minutes away. Husky Stadium to Lumen Field is a short 6 mile drive… or an hour and 47 minutes for those who feel like walking. (Random favorite quote: Steven Wright — ‘Everywhere is walking distance if you have the time.’) The early press conferences stressed Seattle “controlling the clock” and being “physical in the running game”. We call BS! Yeah right! That is a front when you consider the style Grubb had success with at Washington leading the nation in passing yards per game (369.8).

946. This is the cheapest offensive line in the NFL and they currently come in 31st in PFF’s preseason rankings. They were 25th in ESPN’s pass block win rate and some of their totals are aided by the fact this teams lined with up 2 TEs 37% of the time on 1st downs.

947. Geno Smith felt like he took a giant step back in 2023 totaling only four top-12 finishes. He was actually fine in a number of categories posting the same aDOT (8.2), adjusted completion % (77%) and play-action rate (25%) as 2022.

948. The biggest difference for Geno? He dropped from his NFL-leading 15 passing TDs of 20+ air yards to only five in 2023. Deep TDs routinely fluctuate so perhaps a better metric to view Geno is his turnover-worthy play rate of 4.4% over the last two years. That is concerning if he wants to keep a job in the NFL.

Charted turnover-worthy throw rates the last two seasons vs coverage type pic.twitter.com/5HZvfH2ZNm

— Football Insights 📊 (@fball_insights) August 27, 2024

949. Please more play-action! Smith had the 7th most Passing Yards on Play-Action Passes, yet, Seattle ranked 21st in Play-Action Rate on Early Downs. Why??! Pressure! He went up to 40% of his dropbacks in 2023 causing some of his long-developing bomb plays from 2022 to evaporate. He should still be seen as a streamer in plus matchups with high over/unders but we’ve likely seen his best season for fantasy.

950. Kenneth Walker’s first two seasons were nearly identical in fantasy points per game, total touchdowns, and yards per touch. He saw 73% of the team’s rush attempts (10th best among RBs) in 15 games played and his elite red zone role remained unchallenged despite Zach Charbonnet’s presence and in spite of the Seahawks’ ineptitude in sustaining drives in 2023.

951. Walker seems very game script dependent (ala Derrick Henry) as he averaged 14.8 fantasy points per game in Seattle wins versus a pedestrian 8.6 in losses. We can expect those trends to continue but he remains a valuable RB2 for fantasy.

952. Walker averaged just 3.5 yards per carry on 87 attempts with 3+ WRs on the field last year. Expect the distribution to change drastically and more explosive plays to potentially be in Walker’s season if the offensive line gets fixed. He is a high upside RB2.

953. Zach Charbonnet might’ve disappointed fantasy managers who waited patiently for something (anything!) to start up. With Walker in the lineup, Charbonnet averaged just 7.8 opportunities per game despite the fact he was taken 52nd overall. He totaled just two top-24 performances… also known as many as Salvon Ahmed or Matt Breida had. (Why you gotta catch those two with a stray right now, Kyle?)

954. To put that disappointment into perspective, among 2nd round rookie RBs over the last decade with 100+ touches, his 6.63 PPR points per game is in the 10th percentile of Year 1 production. Apart from a Walker injury, it’s hard envisioning Charbonnet taking over the backfield role into anything meaningful for fantasy.

955. Seattle lined up in 12 or 13 personnel 37% of the time on 1st downs (5th HIGHEST) with only ATL, KC, NE, and TEN lining up with 2 or 3 TEs more. Things should change drastically in 2024 as the template at Washington was 3WR sets as evidenced by his three receivers drafted: Rome Odunze (1st Round), Ja’Lynn Polk (2nd), and Jalen McMillan (3rd).

956. Ryan Grubb came out comparing D.K. Metcalf to Rome Odunze as the X receiver in his offense. He destroyed man coverage (2.42 YPRR/ 32.8% TPRR) last year making it an easy one-to-one comparison. Never forget that 3-TD explosion against the Cowboys!

957. Metcalf consistently shows up in stats that matter for Fantasy. A stat getting more and more credibility in Fantasy Football Circles is 1st Downs per Route Run (1D/RR). 1st Downs tell us something yards can’t: effectiveness & TDs (since TDs count 1Ds). There is some good work done by FantasyPoints’ Ryan Heath on the topic if you want a deeper dive. 79% of DK’s receptions went for a 1st down in 2023 (2nd among all WRs) and he leads the NFL in end-zone targets since being drafted in 2019. Remember not all targets are created equally. The exponential power of these type of targets are important to grasp considering he’s averaged 17 end zone targets per year. End of season target totals don’t tell the full story. 120ish Metcalf targets should be valued accordingly.

Since being drafted in 2019, D.K. Metcalf leads the NFL in End Zone Targets.

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Been tracking this for a few years. Here is All 20 of them from 2023 📽️: https://t.co/ovlfsAcuyd pic.twitter.com/rI2RApUGaR

— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) June 18, 2024

957. Metcalf is in his prime at 26 years old and could really take a big step forward in earning a hefty target share with Lockett at the tail end of his career. Even after a 1,100-yard season with eight scores, Metcalf left a lot of meat on the bone so to speak last season with his lowest catch rate of his career. If he and Geno can connect on a few more deep targets, he has top-12 upside.

958. Tyler Lockett turns 32 later this year, and we saw the dropoff from him last season with his lowest fantasy points per game and lowest yardage total since 2018. We’ve seen an ugly trend the last three seasons

• YPRR- 2.35 > 1.94 > 1.91
• Yards per Reception- 16.1 > 12.3 > 11.3

959. Lockett‘s TPRR has remained steady during that span (20.7%) but his competition for targets has changed greatly since his heyday with Russell Wilson. His 1st read target share (24%) is still helpful for fantasy but you also might be left guessing when the right week it is to play him. Walk through his gamelogs and realize he failed to have back-to-back weeks inside the top-30 of the position once in 2023!

960. It was an incredibly slow start to the year as Jaxon Smith-Njigba averaged just 52% snaps for 1st month of the season until Week 5 bye. The 1st WR drafted and the likely 1.02 in rookie drafts likely disappointed managers in Year 1. His usage was low aDOT stuff for a lot of the first two months. His 29 receptions behind the line of scrimmage were the most among rookies. Only Rondale Moore (36 in 2021) has more in the PFF era.

961. JSN‘s per-route numbers (19.5% TPRR, 1.32 YPRR) are not exactly inspiring but I looked back over the last decade at 31 Rookie WRs who saw 90+ targets like JSN. What did they do in their sophomore year? 68% increased their target share, the average was 116 targets, and the average YPRR in sophomore year was 2.01. He is the only 1st round WR over the last decade with 50+ receptions as a rookie to be drafted outside the top-36 in his sophomore year. The market is down on JSN.

962. One of the areas where you can point to JSN‘s ascension is his third down prowess. He quietly led the Seahawks in third down receptions, receiving yards, and 1st read targets. In fact, as FantasyPointsData pointed out, he ranked 10th in the NFL in 1st-read target share on 3rd down converting as many 1st downs on that all important 3rd down as Ja’Marr Chase. We need an every down role for JSN as he ran just 14 total routes with 2WRs on the field. Luckily, the Grubb system is all about 11-personnel as JSN plays the “Jalen McMillan” role. Call him a post-hype sleeper or whatever you want but it shouldn’t be surprising if he turns in a low-end WR2/high-end WR3 finish.

963. Can we at least mention Jake Bobo? When Lockett was out during this pre-season, he was the starting WR3. The former UDFA has some size (6’4″) and had a 5 target, 4 catch, 61 yard performance in Week 7 when Metcalf was out injured. His TD reception was the stuff NFL dreams are made of.

964. Noah Fant has been in the NFL for five seasons, yet he’s still only 26 and back in Seattle on a two-year deal. While the lack of competition for targets is gone (Will Dissly and Colby Parkinson), doesn’t that seem like an indictment that this guy was blocked in opportunity by those two guys? He ranked 3rd among all TEs in yards per target (9.6) and 3rd in Yards per Reception (12.9) showcasing his down-the-field ability that got him drafted in the 1st round way back in 2019 by the Broncos.

Arizona Cardinals

965. The Cardinals’ final season record (4-13) doesn’t truly paint a picture of this team heading into 2024. While waiting on Kyler Murray to return, this team faced a brutal schedule including 13 games versus teams that finished above .500 (2nd most in the NFL) and 10 games against teams that made the playoffs. Part of that is the competitiveness of the NFC West where the three other teams all finished with 9+ wins but it was a tough draw for a team with a new head coach trotting out Joshua Dobbs for the first half of the year. Yet, somehow they beat the Cowboys in Week 3.

966. The splits for this team from Weeks 1-9 to Week 10 on (Kyler Murray returns) are drastic. They were a top-10 offense over the back half despite a losing record.

967. While ranking 21st in points per game on the course of the season doesn’t sound too enticing, keep in mind that top-10 pace with Kyler. If you zoom in even further, the impressive part is that Arizona faced six teams (HOU, LAR, SF, PHI, PIT, SEA) with 9 or more wins in that eight game span.

968. The attitude by the team also seemed to morph into “let’s just go for it” down the stretch with some true risky business decisions. (queue Tom Cruise sliding in those socks) Arizona went for 2-point conversions on 34% of their scores, the highest rate in the NFL. They also went for it on 4th down 27% of the time, the 3rd highest rate in the NFL. Those extra opportunities add up over the season for fantasy.

969. The defense was lacking in a number of key areas, especially getting pressure on the QB. The Cardinals ranked 32nd in pressure rate. Why you ask? Well, Jonathan Gannon subscribed to “the death by 1,000 paper-cuts” theory preferring to run quarters looks until it ran out of style. They ran Cover-4 on 33% of opposing dropbacks (the highest rate in the NFL) and the 5th lowest man coverage rate. While their explosive pass rate looks fine (12th), they still ranked 31st in EPA per pass attempt. This team ranked dead last in blitz rate (16%) making underneath routes a feast all year long. CB Sean Murphy-Bunting was their biggest secondary addition along with 3rd rounder Max Melton.

970. Opponents ran the ball 521(!) times (7th most over the last decade) and their explosive rush rate allowed (6.4%) was worst in football. They were the defense to target for opposing fantasy RBs on the ground and “running through the air” as Jason calls it. With eight receiving TDs allowed to opposing RBs, the Cardinals joined the Detroit Lions (2019, 2020, & 2021) , the 2021 Washington Football Team (as they were called at the time), and 2019 Houston Texans as the only defenses over the last five years to allow 8+.

971. Overall, the Arizona defense can only rebound from ranking 32nd in EPA per play if the front seven is fixed. Arizona allowed opposing offenses to convert 3rd and long plays (7+ yards) 31% of the time, the worst rate in football. It should be noted that the defensive line did had more “adjusted games lost” due to injury than any other team in the NFL according to Football Outsiders and unfortunately, their best EDGE (BJ Ojulari) went down for the season in training camp. Rookie DE Darius Robinson from Missouri was selected 27th overall and interior DL Justin Jones comes over from the Bears on a 3-year deal with $19.75 million guaranteed. Nevertheless, the lack of pressure is likely going to continue.

972. Arizona was one of the most effective running games in football last year even when it was very clear what they wanted to do. Arizona ranked #3 in Neutral Rush Rate, #1 in 1st Half Rush Rate, and #1 in Rush Rate when leading. They were 5th in EPA per rush on early downs and 7th overall in rush success rate. Those are not typically numbers you find for a team with only four wins.

973. It wasn’t just the desire to run the football but the effectiveness. Arizona ranked #1 in explosive rush rate (15+ yard runs) and #1 in forced missed tackle rate and 4th in yards after contact per attempt.

974. The team’s versatility was apparent when consider how middle of the road they were in offensive sets. They ranked 20th in 11-personnel (44%) without the obvious WR firepower to consistently beat people down the field. 13-personnel on 1st downs was used at the 3rd highest rate (10%) making the selection of mammoth rookie TE Tip Reiman (6’5″, 271) an intriguing addition to heavy formations in 2024.

975. The Cardinals joined the Dolphins as the only other team in the NFL to average 4.4+ yards per carry with 3+WRs or two or fewer.

976. The Arizona offensive line is by no means a finished product but Drew Petzing should be praised for installing a scheme in Year 1 that clicked. The Cardinals ranked 6th in ESPN’s Run Blocking Win Rate with 47.8% of their runs occurring with the QB under center and 51% in Shotgun showing the type of balance few teams in the NFL find. In fact, the Bills, Browns (Petzing’s former team), and Cardinals were the only NFL teams to have 200+ rushing attempts in both sets.

977. Arizona runners ranked 7th in yards before contact per attempt despite the Cardinals offensive line unit receiving less than stellar end of season marks from PFF’s team run blocking grades (26th) and doubt still looming for the group in 2024. Warren Sharp lists them at 31st and PFF at 26th while we must note the transition of 2023 6th overall pick Paris Johnston from right to left tackle this season. Former Bengals OL Jonah Williams (11th overall pick in 2020) was brought in on a relatively inexpensive deal (2-years, $10 million guaranteed) after appearing in 1,000+ snaps for three straight years.​ Gannon said that Williams will slide in at right tackle with 2024 3rd round pick OL Isaiah Adams providing much needed depth possibly competing for a starting guard spot.

978. After signing a massive 5-year, $235 million extension with $160 million guaranteed before the 2022 season, Kyler Murray looks look a solid buy-low right now in dynasty. Ranked Jason’s QB5 in startups, we forget how consistent he’s been in fantasy. Kyler was the QB9 in fantasy points per game coming off a major injury as a solid contributor on an offense that lacked any elite pass-catchers besides Trey McBride. Add in No. 4 overall pick Marvin Harrison Jr. and you can outline the makings of an elite fantasy season albeit at a cheaper draft price than other QBs.

979. If you want to extrapolate those final seven games, Kyler‘s 17-game pace: 3,822 passing yards, 21 passing TDs plus another 518 and 6 on the ground. Those are mighty fine numbers. He completed 70% of his passes versus zone coverage proving he is more than just a mobile QB.

980. Say what you want about Kyler, but when he is on an NFL field as the starter in his career, he’s averaging 20.3 fantasy points per game and 38 rushing yards. If you want to zoom in either further: Over the last three years, Kyler was a top-12 QB 61% of the time, the fifth-highest rate among QBs.

981. If there is an area of the field defenses keyed in on, it was short. 50% of Kyler‘s pass attempts were between 0-9 yards, the 4th highest in NFL once he returned in Week 10. That was ahead of only Trevor Siemian, Gardner Minshew & Justin Herbert. Earlier in Kyler’s career, the deep ball was working as he ranked #1 in 2021 with a 49.4% completion rate on throws of 20+ air yards.  Last year, he ranked 30th among 40 qualifying QBs as the offense lacked big play threats.

982. Kyler is one of the Ballers 2024 My Guys and his opening schedule (@ BUF, vs LAR, vs DET, vs WAS)  to start the season is juicy. Arizona is one of eight teams to start the year with 3 straight games currently sitting at 48+ total points for the over/nder.

983. James Conner finished 2023 with his first career 1,000 rushing season and the final five game stretch was fantasy league-winning type of stuff. Over that span, he averaged 22.6 fantasy points per game, 23.8 opportunities, 103 rush yards & 1.4 TDs. In fact, looking back over the last decade, Conner had the 6th most rushing 1st downs over a final 5-game stretch of any RB.

984. Everything the coaching staff is saying about Conner for 2024 is rosy which is wild to say about a 29-year-old RB.

• Jonathan Gannon in early January: “If you think that certain guys start to fall off because they get a little older, he’d be the one to delay it, I know that.”
• Gannon again recently: ““He’s been fantastic. He’s improving his game. He looks very explosive out there. Fresh, big, strong. He’s gonna have a good year.”
• OC Drew Petzing: “[Conner] is a huge part of who we are culture-wise.“

Conner somehow ranked 3rd in the NFL in 10+ yard runs behind only Christian McCaffrey and James Cook.

985. We know Conner does not play full seasons but the team’s success running the football and their commitment to him says he will be fed for fantasy.  While maintaining 23+ opportunities per game is probably wishful thinking, let’s say he gets only 19. Only eight RBs in the NFL hit that mark in 2023 (Conner was at 18.5 in 13 games) and the offense (and red zone looks) should be better in 2024. If you want to start your season off hot, the Cardinals have a few high-flying affairs that might go under-the-radar: @ BUF (48 point total), vs LAR (49), and vs DET (50).

986. Rookie Trey Benson was never used as a full-time bellcow in college at Florida State but he fits the mold of a bigger (6’1″, 223 lbs) back who runs sub 4.39. The 3rd round pick played every first and second down before he was removed in Week 2 of the preseason.  He totaled 9 carries for 43 yards (4.8 per carry) including a 20 yard run called back on a holding call. We want RBs who dominate early down work.

987. There are two routes for Benson: Conner is injured and Benson takes over as a top-15 RB. Or he “Charbonnet”s all year long waiting for a breakout moment. In college, he was highly efficient, averaging 6.1 yards per carry and 11.2 yards per reception as a Seminole.  We feel pretty strongly that Conner will still have the RB1 role in this offense, at least to start the season.

988. The other RBs on the roster might be after thoughts but they do have clear roles. Michael Carter is a far cry from the rookie scatback he was envisioned by fantasy managers but he was given a $2 million raise thanks to his effective work in short spurts. On just 22 total carries, he averaged 6.8 yards per carry. However, six of those went for 15+ yards… as many as Jonathan Taylor had all year. Do whatever you want with this information.

989. How desperate were the Cardinals for finding WR help? Arizona ranked dead last in fantasy points from their outside WRs and 29th in total fantasy points scored in 2023. With just two total games of pass-catchers hitting 100+ receiving yards last year, that should change in 2024…

990. Marvin Harrison Jr. joins Sammy Watkins (2014) and Amari Cooper (2015) as the only WRs to be taken with a top-4 pick in the NFL draft over the last decade. He also currently is being drafted as the highest rookie WR of all time in fantasy drafts. The expectations are high but players drafted in the top-10, in general, are not complete busts for fantasy purposes in Year 1. Not counting injured guys… 7 of the 9 beat their ADP. The other two? Amari Cooper was solid (11.0 fppg) and Corey Davis was bad… but also not highly drafted.

991. What would you be expecting if you drafted Marv at that price? Over the last 6 years, a top-10 fantasy WR has averaged: 148 targets, 101 receptions, 1,366 receiving yards, 9.6 rec TDs, and 15.5 fppg (half point scoring). That is the ceiling outcome you dream of. If you don’t… this is a failed pick.

992. Rookie WRs (like Harrison) often are league-winners down the stretch. Of the 12 rookie WRs over the last decade who maintained a 23+ percent target share, 75% of them increased in their fantasy points per game over their final five games. Here were some absolute studs and how they scored from Week 13 on.

993. Marv had 28 combined receiving TDs and averaged over 1,000 receiving yards over the two seasons at Ohio State. His convienent receiving line (1000.5) suggests that he needs to average 59 receiving yards per game. For context, 18 different rookie WRs have accomplished that feat over the last decade including such names as Willie Snead, Sammy Watkins, and Kelvin Benjamin.

994. “The Spot Start” as he’s known around Ballers HQ, Zay Jones finds himself in the desert to compete with Michael Wilson for the WR2 job across from Marvin Harrison Jr. He had a forgettable 2023 thanks to knee and hamstring injuries, but he is just two years removed from a WR26 finish in 2022. Jones has been suspended for the first five game of the 2024-25 season for violating the league’s personal conduct policy.

995. Rookie Michael Wilson averaged a 14% target share per game last year and just 1.36 yards per route run on a depth chart that didn’t have Marvin Harrison Jr. Those types of numbers don’t move the needle, and now his target competition got a lot tougher. Wilson didn’t have the strongest profile coming out of Stanford and nothing about his Year 1 numbers suggest he’ll ever be a difference maker in dynasty. A bench stash who should get run was the WR2 in a good offense? Sure. A future top-24 option? No sir!

996. HC Jonathan Gannon seems to have a soft spot for Greg Dortch. He was quoted as saying he “speaks softly and carries a big stick” and his role could expand in 2023 with the depature of Rondale Moore. When he’s seen 5+ targets in a game, he’s averaging almost 15 PPR points per game. Apart from double FLEX PPR leagues or the occasional cash play in DFS, he is a fringe player given the target competition.

997. From Week 10 on, Trey McBride was a revelation. He averaged 9.8 targets per game and ranked 2nd only to Evan Engram in Receptions versus zone coverage in that span

It started slow… but after Week 5, whew baby!

ALL 81 of Trey McBride's receptions? Why not! 📽️ pic.twitter.com/n5UbihKVb8

— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) June 14, 2024

998. The dependable hands were a thing of beauty as he had ZERO drops on 104 targets. McBride was the only player with more than 60 targets who did not commit a drop according to FantasyPoints Data Suite.

999. McBride led this team in YPRR (1.67) with 3+ WRs on the field, an astounding feat for a TE. All three of his receiving TDs came in these sets. Even crazier is that his 53% Route participation when 3+ WRs on the field meant he was either pass-blocking or off the field almost half the time.

1000. While 33% of ARI targets went to TEs (2nd highest in the NFL), you can expect that to change in 2024. However, McBride‘s diversity both in-line and the slot makes him someone I wouldn’t worry about too much dropping off the face of the planet for fantasy. Only 41% of his targets came from the slot in 2023. He’s likely being drafted at his ceiling unless an influx of 7+ receiving TDs comes his way