32 Fantasy Football Storylines to Monitor in Training Camp for 2024

We. Are. Back! The start of NFL training camps can only mean one thing – fantasy football draft season is here! But we need to pump the brakes a little bit. Right now, we think we know what’s going to happen for each team, but let’s be real – there’s so much up in the air and there’s no shortage of unanswered questions. Once those questions are answered and we get some clarity over the course of training camps, draft strategies, player takes, teams to target, etc. start to come into focus.

In this article, I’ll highlight one fantasy-relevant storyline to monitor in training camp for each NFL franchise. From positional battles to injuries to coaching schemes, there’s an edge to be had if you’re up to date on what’s happening in camp. Here’s what I’m watching for in late July and August as we prepare for our fantasy drafts. Camps open for most NFL clubs the week of July 22.

Looking for more Fantasy Football Draft prep advice? Be sure to check out the award-winning 2024 Ultimate Draft Kit, which includes everything we think you need to win your league – projections, tier-based rankings, sleepers, breakouts, busts and so much more!

Arizona Cardinals

How much will Trey Benson eat into James Conner‘s workload?

Trey Benson was our consensus RB2 in the 2024 class after the Cardinals used a third round pick on the former Florida State Seminole, but it’s quite possible Benson is more of a change of pace back behind Conner as a rookie. It feels like the fantasy community as been slowly trying to kick Conner to the curb for the last three years, but the dude is quite #good at the game!

Among all RBs with 90+ rush attempts last year, Conner ranked fifth in yards per carry (5.0), fifth in PFF rush grade, fourth in PFF’s Elusive Rating and fifth in missed tackles forced per attempt. Yeah, he’s 29 years old in a contract year, but the dude balled out last year, and Jonathan Gannon seems to love him.

As far as his career arc, obviously betting on elder statesmen at RB is not the ideal archetype for fantasy, but it is worth noting that Conner’s efficiency numbers are not trending downward. Here are his marks over the last three years:

• Yards per carry: 3.7 > 4.3 > 5.0
• Missed Tackles Forced per Attempt: 0.23 > 0.15 > 0.27
• Yards per touch: 4.7 > 4.7 > 5.1

Benson is a talented, explosive runner, but it is worth noting that he was never really used as a bell cow at all in his college career. For reference, Benson only accounted for 37% of his team’s rushing attempts in 2023 which is well below the likes of bell cows likes of Jonathan Brooks (50%), Audric Estime (50%), Braelon Allen (47%) and Blake Corum (47%). This isn’t to say that he won’t ever be used that way, but as long as Conner is healthy, it’s tough to see Benson overtaking him for the RB1 job. I’ll be monitoring Benson’s usage with the first-team offense closely in camp and in the pre-season.

Atlanta Falcons

Do the Falcons have the personnel to exclusively run 3WR sets?

Arthur Smith was allergic to having more than 2WRs on the field in 2023. Atlanta ranked dead last in 11 personnel usage in 2023. Meanwhile, the Rams led the entire NFL. There may not be a more obvious shift in offensive philosophy from 2023 to 2024 than that of the Atlanta Falcons with new OC Zac Robinson, who comes over from LA as part of the Sean McVay tree. If you follow the off-season moves, it makes too much sense. After all, they signed Kirk Cousins to a massive contract in free agency, traded for Rondale Moore and signed Darnell Mooney to quite a bit of moolah in free agency.

That’s all well and good in theory, but do they actually have the personnel to do it exclusively the way the Rams did a year ago? After all, that roster had two dudes named Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. We love Drake London and think he’s talented enough to be a true WR1 for the team, but the WR2 talent here is lacking a bit.

Darnell Mooney is coming off a season in which he earned a target on just over 11% of his routes, and his yards per route run have declined in three straight years from a respectable 1.72 to 1.58 to 0.89 a year ago (gross). And as for Rondale Moore, well we know what to expect at this point. Moore just hasn’t produced as an NFL WR, failing to eclipse 500 yards in a single season since he entered the league in 2021. And then there’s Kyle Pitts – Is he a WR or a TE? Sure, he’s super young and his 2023 season can at least in part, be explained by a prolonged recovery from PCL surgery, but the truth is, we just haven’t seen Pitts dominate on the field the way we thought he would after flashing as a rookie. In his young career, Pitts has lined up inline just 19.9% of the time, so it’s fair to wonder how much playing time Mooney and Moore will see if Pitts’ slot and out wide usage continue on the trajectory we’ve seen in recent seasons.

While I do expect Kirk to be on the field in Week 1 and recovered from his Achilles surgery, it’s at least a factor we need to consider for the team as a whole entering 2024. And let’s also not forget that Raheem Morris doesn’t have a ton of experience as an NFL head coach, and when he has been at the helm, his teams have not performed all that well. Morris’ 21–38 record as a head coach certainly leaves a lot to be desired. I am optimistic about this offense in 2024, but we need to take a step back and recognize that there’s perhaps more risk than the market assumes. Let’s see how all these pieces gel in camp…

Baltimore Ravens

How much does the Big Dog have left in the tank?

For the first time in his professional career, Derrick Henry will not be wearing a Titans jersey as he lands in Baltimore to play next to Lamar Jackson. Henry signed a two-year, $16 million deal with Baltimore, including $9 million in guarantees. It’s not difficult to see the path where this goes quite well for Henry in fantasy land. After all, Gus Edwards (yes, the Gus Bus) was fantasy’s RB20 last season on the back of 13 rushing scores and a league-leading 23 rush attempts inside the 5-yard line. There’s absolutely no question that those opportunities are going to go to Henry, and in his career, he’s performed extremely well in positive game scripts, notable as the Ravens project to be among the league-leaders in wins based on their 10.5 win total in the betting markets.

Since the King entered the NFL, he’s averaged 100 rushing yards per game and 18.7 fantasy points per game in wins compared to 54.9 rushing yards and just 9.5 fantasy points per game in losses. Assuming the Ravens don’t suddenly fall off a cliff, the positive game scripts should be there. That said, we’re talking about a RB who turns 31 years old in January, and the decline (at least in terms of fantasy production) has already begun. Take a look at Henry’s metrics over the last three years:

• Snap Rate: 71% > 63% > 53%
• Opportunities per Game: 29.9 (8 games) > 24.4 > 18.6
• Fantasy points per Game: 23.0 > 17.9 > 13.7

On the surface, those numbers do look a bit alarming, but if you peel back the curtain a bit, you can see that Henry’s 2023 underlying efficiency numbers were still in line with (or better than) his recent  numbers:

• Missed Tackles Forced per Attempt: 0.20 > 0.18 > 0.23
• Explosive Rush Rate: 4.1% > 4.3% > 5.7%
• Success Rate: 44.7% > 46.7% > 46.1%

It’s scary investing a somewhat early pick on a RB at this stage of his career without much of pass catching profile, but Henry was still productive last year on a bad Titans offense with major QB and OL issues. Among all RBs with 100+ attempts last season, Henry ranked top-10 in each of the following metrics: Explosive Rush Rate, Yards After Contact per Attempt and PFF Rush Grade. Now, he lands on one of the NFL’s premier franchises with a locked in QB1 on a team that should win a bunch of games. Can he be Gus Edwards++? If so, he’s probably worth his current third round ADP, but be careful chasing Henry up into round two as there’s still some warning signs in his profile. Did I mention he turns 31 in January?!

Buffalo Bills

Who is Josh Allen‘s WR1?

No NFL offense vacates more available WR targets and air yards than the Buffalo Bills after Stefon Diggs was traded to Houston and Gabe Davis left for Jacksonville. Someone has to step up here, right? Right?! Based on our own Kyle Borgognoni’s research, since 2018, the 284 vacated targets by Bills WRs is the most of all time for a team associated with any QB drafted in the top-5 at the position. In other words, the market is still drafting Allen as the dude (rightfully so), yet his WR core is a complete enigma entering camp.

After the team lost Diggs and Davis, they added Keon Coleman out of Florida State 33rd overall in the NFL Draft then signed a bunch of dudes in free agency, namely Curtis Samuel, who is reuniting with OC Joe Brady after the two were together back in their Carolina days. They also added the rag tag crew of Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mack Hollins and Chase Claypool, but entering camp, it looks like the 3WR set is likely to be Coleman, Samuel and third-year wide out, Khalil Shakir. Pump the brakes though, a bit on Coleman. It sounds like he’s got a ways to go in terms of becoming an every down player:

#Bills GM Brandon Beane on Keon Coleman

ADP 70 on @UnderdogFantasy feels kinda pricey! pic.twitter.com/rx6n1SIR8z

— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) June 14, 2024

Coleman certainly fills a need on this roster as he profiles as a true boundary WR, something that has not necessarily been on display in Samuel or Shakir’s career thus far. For reference, Samuel played 71% of his snaps in the slot over the last two seasons in Washington while Shakir lined up in the slot on 76.8% of his snaps a year ago. It’s a bit of a mess trying to figure out playing time for those two specifically, especially when you throw in the fact that Dalton Kincaid barely played attached to the line of scrimmage (60.8% in the slot, 18.5% out wide).

From an analytical profile standpoint, however, Keon Coleman leaves a lot to be desired as a prospect. Sure, the draft capital is there and the highlight reel plays are fun, but he never eclipsed 2.0 yards per team pass attempt in college, and his 1.74 yards per route run during his final year at Florida State leaves a lot to be desired. The floor is scary low, but he could turn into a red zone weapon for Allen in the right circumstances. As for Shakir and Samuel, the financial commitment (3 years, $24 million deal with $15 million guaranteed) says Samuel will probably get the first crack at a meaningful role here. He actually bested both Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson in targets per route run last year, likely inflated by his low aDOT role, but that lowish aDOT role was part of Samuel’s bag of tricks when he played with Brady during their days in Carolina (77/851/3 as a receiver in 2020).

It’s worth noting that after Brady took over last year as the OC, Buffalo transformed into one of the league’s most run-heavy offenses down the stretch, and Allen posted his lowest aDOT (8.6) of his entire career. While it’s really fun to chase the unknowns and find that league winner in an ambiguous WR room, there’s a real possibility that the answer come January is that none of these guys return massive fantasy value. That’s not to say that we shouldn’t take shots, especially if the opportunity cost is low, but it is worth considering the downside with each of these players’ profile. And let’s be honest – Dalton Kincaid is probably the best bet to return fantasy goodness if he can make the year two leap after posting the fourth-most receptions for a rookie TE of all time. Could the Bills take a Chiefs 2023 approach with a great TE + ‘WR by committee’ approach?

Carolina Panthers

Can Dave Canales do it again?

Geno Smith revival? Check. Baker Mayfield revival? Check. Bryce Young? To be determined. Canales has worked wonders with struggling QBs over the last couple of years, most recently saving Baker Mayfield‘s career and leading a Bucs offense that ranked 12th in EPA per play, 14th in yards per play, and 18th in points per game. Those numbers certainly won’t blow you away, but relative to rock bottom pre-season expectations, Canales and the Bucs offense crushed in 2023.

He was brought over from Tampa to be Carolina’s next head coach and get Young’s career back on track, just like he did with Geno and Baker. And well, it probably can’t get worse! Among 31 QBs who registered 300+ drop backs a year ago, Young ranked:

• 30th in EPA per dropback
• 30th in PFF grade
• 31st in YPA
• 31st in off target rate
• 31st in fantasy points per dropback

It was bad. Like bad, bad, but perhaps it wasn’t all his fault. I mean, it almost never is. The offense lacked any sense of continuity with the play caller changing multiple times and Frank Reich getting fired halfway through the year, and the offensive scheme was archaic in nature. In 2023, the Panthers ranked 29th in pre-snap motion and 30th in play action rate. On top of that, the offensive skill group left A LOT to be desired.

Speaking of the skill group, it’s probably worth getting this out of the way from the jump – there is no D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Mike Evans or Chris Godwin on this roster. Those dudes are really good! While the Carolina depth chart last year left a lot to be desired, they at least tried to give Young weapons to support his development. After trading for Diontae Johnson, the Panthers spent their first round pick on WR Xavier Legette, grabbed RB Jonathan Brooks in round two then added TE Ja’Tavion Sanders in the fourth. They also spent a ton of money in free agency in an effort to improve PFF’s 29th ranked offensive line in 2023.

Playing for a head coach and play caller who understands the importance of pre-snap motion and play action (Mayfield was 11th in the league in pass attempts off play action) behind an improved offensive line with better weapons, it’s not difficult to envision Young having a much better sophomore campaign in 2024. Anything close to league average would be a huge win for the Panthers organization and a huge win for the fantasy viability of the main weapons on Carolina’s depth chart.

Chicago Bears

How will the targets shake out for the WR core?

The Chicago WR room is absolutely loaded with talent. D.J. Moore is a certified stud, Keenan Allen showed zero signs of slowing down in 2023, and Rome Odunze was the ninth overall pick in the NFL Draft with an awesome production profile. Moore (2.31) and Allen (2.36) crushed in yards per route run while Keenan led all WRs in ESPN’s Open Score a year ago. It’s really not difficult to see Caleb Williams getting off to a fast start as a pro, especially with his collegiate pedigree.

That said, it feels like someone here is going to lose out when it comes to weekly fantasy production. Sure, Caleb Williams is an awesome prospect, but it’s asking a lot of a rookie QB to support not one, not two, but three fantasy relevant pass catchers. Fortunately, new OC Shane Waldron brings a pass-first offense over to Chicago from Seattle. In 2023, the Seahawks ranked ninth in pass rate and seventh in pass rate over expectation. Even with those metrics, however, Seattle’s WR room wasn’t exactly a hotbed of fantasy goodness a year ago:

• D.K. Metcalf: 66/1,114/8 as the WR16
• Tyler Lockett: 79/894/5 as the WR33
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 63/628/4 as the WR48

Obviously, this is not a one-to-one comparison of what will happen in Chicago, and Moore and Keenan seem to be producing at a much higher level than Metcalf and Lockett at this stage of their careers, so there’s room for more production, especially if Caleb is that good. For now, I’m watching to see how the playing time shakes out in training camp, specifically in 2WR sets. A year ago under Waldron’s Seahawks only ran 11 personnel on first downs at a 42% clip, which ranked 23rd in the NFL.

Cincinnati Bengals

Who is the Bengals’ RB1?

Joe Mixon took his talents and his 321 (!!!) opportunities to Houston and that massive opportunity is projected to be filled by some combination of Zack Moss and second-year back, Chase Brown. Deciphering how that backfield shakes out could be one of the keys to fantasy football when you consider the potential value for both backs. As of the writing of this article, Moss is currently going off the board as the RB30 with Brown going as the RB40 over on Sleeper. There’s value to be had here if we can decipher how these backfield touches are going to be distributed.

Let’s start with Moss, who’s NFL career was on life support prior to the 2023 season. If it weren’t for the Jonathan Taylor ankle/contract saga, he certainly wouldn’t have gotten his deal in free agency, so perhaps Mr. Moss owes Jim Irsay a “Thank you.” Moss started eight games last year without Taylor. In those games, he averaged just over 20 total opportunities per game and 12.7 half PPR points per game. Among backs who played at least eight games in 2023, that would have ranked as the RB24 in points per game. But if we zoom out and look at his numbers on the whole, his efficiency metrics were strong. He was fifth among all qualified backs in NextGen Stats rushing yards over expected per attempt and 15th in missed tackles forced per attempt.

From a football guy take, Moss seems to be a great fit in Cincy’s 11-personnel shotgun system. According to FantasyPoints’ Scott Barrett, only Jonathan Taylor averaged more yards per carry from shotgun in 11 personnel than Moss in 2023, and the two teams who led the league in RB carries from shotgun in 11 personnel? Indianapolis and Cincinnati. In other words, we’ve already seen Moss succeed in this type of scheme.

As for Chase Brown, it took awhile for him to get on the field. It wasn’t until the Bengals’ season was essentially over that he finally got his opportunity. He didn’t eclipse a 15% snap share until Week 13, but from Weeks 13-18, he only averaged a 21% snap share, and he never eclipsed a 30% snap share or saw more than 12 touches in a single game. If we’re thinking about which back is most likely to be the team’s RB1 in terms of playing time and opportunity, it’s almost certainly Moss, but that doesn’t mean Brown can’t be involved, too, especially as a pass catcher.

Last year among 70 RBs with 15+ targets, Brown ranked first in yards per route run, first in targets per route run and fourth in PFF receiving grade. Of course, most of that came on a huge 54-yard gain against the Colts, but the guy clearly has juice. He did, after all, run 4.43 at the NFL Combine last year. The knock on Brown is that he probably lacks the size to accumulate enough volume to be a lead runner in the NFL. In addition to potential RB1 size concerns, Brown was also never really asked to pass block last year, logging just eight total pass block snaps in 2023 as a rookie according to PFF. If we’re counting on Brown’s fantasy production to come from his receiving upside, we had better hope he’s able to get on the field in obvious passing situations.

For now, both backs are worth targeting thanks to their dirt cheap prices where the opportunity cost is so low, but it is worth monitoring if the Bengals add another back before the season starts. As it stands, Zack Moss looks like the priority target of the two thanks to his projected workload and goal line role on an offense that’s ranked eighth in both 2022 and 2021 with Burrow healthy in points per play.

Cleveland Browns

Where is Nick Chubb at in his recovery?

When healthy, Nick Chubb is arguably the NFL’s best pure runner of the football, but unfortunately, his health during the 2024 season is a major question mark. Chubb suffered a complex near dislocation of his left knee in Week 2 against the Pittsburgh Steelers and has since had two surgeries to address that injury – one in September to address the MCL, meniscus and other cartilage damage and one in November to reconstruct his torn ACL. It’s worth pointing out that this is the same knee that Chubb injured during his time at Georgia when he tore his PCL, LCL and MCL. To this point in the off-season, Chubb has not participated in any of the Browns’ OTAs or mini camp practices, but he has worked to the side with trainers.

When the regular season kicks off in a couple of months, Chubb will be about 11.5 months removed from his first procedure and about nine months removed from his November ACL surgery. Given the complexity of his injury, his injury history and the fact that he’s now likely in the final years of his career, it’s likely to be a slow process for Chubb to get back full speed, if at all, in 2024. He’s a PUP candidate to start the year. So, if Chubb misses time, who stands to benefit?

Last year’s RB17 in half PPR, Jerome Ford, is back on the roster as the likely RB1 until Chubb is healthy. He was pretty middle of the pack in terms of his efficiency stats, however, so I do question the overall talent profile. Among 49 qualified RBs, he was 28th in NextGen Stats’ rushing yards over expected per attempt, while his explosive rush rate was 32nd. He’s a fine and capable fantasy RB2/FLEX, but we probably won’t be getting a league-winning type of season from Mr. Ford, even if Chubb can’t get back until October/November. Behind Uncle Jerome, they’ve got journeymen D’Onta Foreman, Pierre Strong Jr. and Nyheim Hines. Hines and Strong are likely to contribute on passing downs and/or special teams.

Dallas Cowboys

Who is the Cowboys’ RB1?

The Cowboys shocked the fantasy football world when they didn’t sign a RB at the start of free agency. They shocked us again when they didn’t draft a single RB in April during the NFL Draft. Ipso facto, they’re running it back with some combination of Ezekiel Elliott and Rico Dowdle at the top of the depth chart with Deuce Vaughn and Royce Freeman rounding out the depth chart. What a crew!

Zeke is entering his age 29 season and well, the end is coming (here?). Elliott’s yards per carry, fantasy points per game, rushing yards over expected per attempt and success rate have all declined in three straight seasons. At this stage of his career, it’s tough to envision Zeke being a true workhorse for Dallas like he was for the better part of the last decade. However, if he can carve out the goal line role for one of the league’s best offenses, there’s low end RB2 production/FLEX numbers to be had here. After all, Tony Pollard vacates 30 carries from inside the 10-yard line, which was tied for the sixth-most among all RBs.

As for the former UDFA in Rico Dowdle, he has just 113 career touches to his name since he entered the league in 2020, and he’s already 26 years old. Historically speaking, this type of profile has been a losing bet in fantasy land, but head coach Mike McCarthy has been vocal that this RB room will be a running back by committee approach. One area where Dowdle flashed in 2023 was as a pass catcher. Rico was top-10 among qualified backs in both yards per reception (8.5) and yards per route run (1.35), and Dallas is coming off a season where Dak chucked it 590 times!

There’s room for both of these guys to put up useable weeks, but to me, trying to decipher who is going to get the carries inside the red zone is probably the top priority entering training camp. According to Vegas lines, the Cowboys are eighth in projected points, which means there’s double digit TD upside if we can peg the Cowboys’ RB1 inside the red zone.

Denver Broncos

How will the RB touches be distributed?

Denver is a team with so, so many question marks. We should be looking for Bo Nix’s development in camp, the WR rotation, and we don’t even know who the starting TE is going to be. But to me, the biggest thing to monitor is the RB room and how these touches are going to be distributed because there’s going to be plenty go around. Sean Payton loves (and I mean LOVES) to get his backs involved early and often. And when you factor in how Bo Nix plays in terms of his willingness to check it down and get the ball out on time, it’s a match made in heaven for the RBs to continue to see plenty of work, both in the run game and as a pass catcher.

Entering camp, Javonte Williams is the de facto RB1, and he should be much, much healthier in 2024 compared to 2023. Payton and the staff certainly had to expect Javonte’s efficiency to be poor in year one off the ACL + LCL surgery, yet he still loaded this dude up with 275 total opportunities. There’s been a bit of hype on guys like Jaleel McLaughlin, Audric Estimé and even UDFA Blake Watson, but it’s still pretty likely that Javonte leads the RB room again in 2024.

I’m a big fan of Jaleel McLaughlin as a change of pace back. The dude’s efficiency last year was off the charts. The problem is that he’s just 5’7″ and 187 pounds, so we’re unlikely to ever get a true RB1 workload. In 2023 as a rookie, Jaleel’s highest opportunity count was 13, and he never played more than 33% of the snaps in a single game. Sure, that opportunity could grow in year two, but there’s pretty clearly a capped ceiling here. I’ll be interested to see if Watson makes the roster and how much Estimé is running with the first team. Worth noting, he missed the early part of the off-season with a knee scope, so he’s behind the eight ball a little bit. And then there’s veteran Samaje Perine, who quietly led all RBs with 25+ targets in yards per route run last year. The team can save about $3M in money if they move on from him, so monitoring his status on the roster is crucial for those hoping to find a late round gem McLaughlin, Estimé or Watson.

Detroit Lions

Is Jameson Williams finally ready to be a full time player?

It has not been the smoothest start to his NFL career. Jamo spent his first off-season as a pro recovering from ACL surgery then barely played as a rookie. Then, in year two, Williams missed off-season time because of a hamstring injury and was suspended for the first month of the 2023 season due to violating the league’s gambling policy. Now, entering year three it’s officially “Put up or shut up time” for the former 12th overall pick. Through two years in the league, Williams finds himself on a terrifying list for Round 1 WRs who have struggled early in their career:

To Williams’ credit, his coaching staff finally appears to be on his side as the positive drumbeat out of Lions’ camp is deafening. That said, we’re talking about a player who is coming off a year where he:

• Ran 22 routes per game
• Caught two or fewer passes in 13 of 15 games played, including playoffs
• Averaged 1.3 YPRR

Those numbers are #bad if you ask me. In theory, Williams should smash his previous high in routes run per game, so he will be on the field more, but will he earn enough targets to warrant his skyrocketing ADP? In two years as a pro, Jamo has earned a target on just 16% of his routes run. For a player competing with elite target earners like Amon-Ra St. Brown (26.2% TPRR), Sam LaPorta (24%) and Jahmyr Gibbs (22.3% TPRR), it’s going to be tough for Jamo to earn volume at a high level assuming his teammates stay healthy.

So, if we have potential volume concerns, then Jamo is going to have to hit on big plays frequently. The dude no doubt has the juice to do it, but Goff’s history of deep passing leaves a lot to be desired. Since Goff joined the Lions, his rates of 20+ yard attempts have been just 9.1%, 9.4% and 7.8%. Among qualified QBs, those numbers ranked 30th, 29th and 38th.

I absolutely loved this dude’s film coming out of college, but we probably need to take a step back and have a rationale take about a player who’s shown very little so far through two pro seasons.

Green Bay Packers

Will the real WR1 please stand up?

There’s no shortage of talent on this WR depth chart. Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, Dontayvion Wicks and Romeo Doubs can all play. Heck, even the Butter Man, Bo Melton, had some production for the Packers down the stretch. Oh and you know those two second-year TEs, Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft? Those guys aren’t half bad either! Hat tip to you, Green Bay. You’ve hit on seemingly every skill position draft pick over the last three years. So, for fantasy, who the heck is the top target for a Packers offense that ranks 10th in projected points according to Vegas lines?

In order to try to answer that question, it’s probably best to look at usage in games with Christian Watson (hamstring) in the lineup. From Weeks 5-13, Watson played 73%+ of the snaps in every game. In those weeks, here’s how the playing time and targets were distributed:

• Doubs: 83% routes, 15% target share
• Watson: 82% routes, 19% target share
• Reed: 63% routes, 15% target share
• Wicks: 34% routes, 10% target share

Fantasy gamers who are willing to embrace the risk with Christian Watson may be rewarded if he can get his hamstring issues sorted out. Coming off the board as the WR44 in the 9th round over on Sleeper, you could argue the injury risk is already baked into the ADP. Entering camp, if we use last year’s numbers as a guide, we’ll probably see a 4WR committee with Watson and Doubs leading the Pack (pun intended) in playing time. Make no mistake about it, though. Jayden Reed (1.95 YPRR) and Dontayvion Wicks (1.94 YPRR) are ballers. They’ll see the field – the question is, will they play enough to be fantasy difference makers? Time will tell…

Houston Texans

How will the targets be distributed amongst the Big 3?

The Texans made a splash this off-season when they traded for Stefon Diggs, giving C.J. Stroud arguably the NFL’s best 3WR set with Nico Collins, Diggs and Tank Dell. Financially, the team made a decision that probably solidifies Nico’s role in the offense. Shortly after trading for Diggs, the team restructured the veteran’s contract to make him a pending free agent after 2024 then immediately signed Nico to a lucrative three-year extension.

Collins enjoyed a true breakout campaign in 2023, logging the NFL’s second-best yards per route run season (3.11) behind only Tyreek Hill. How good was his season? The only WRs to average 3+ YPRR in a single season? Tyreek, Julio Jones, Cooper Kupp and Nico Collins. Yep, it was that good! He should be locked into the traditional ‘X’ receiver role for 2024.

Tank Dell was a star as a rookie, averaging 2.22 yards per route run in 11 games. For a first-year player, that number is nothing short of elite. And those size concerns we all talked about coming out of college? Not a problem! The dude was asked to run big boy routes with a massive 14.4 aDOT with less than 30% of his routes coming from the slot. According to JJ Zachariason, his average depth of target was the 24th-highest among 50+ target rookie WRs over the last 12 years.

Entering his age 31 season, Stefon Diggs may not be the player he was three years ago, but he’s a clear and obvious upgrade over last year’s WR3, Noah Brown. While his numbers fell off a cliff down the stretch after the Bills OC change, Diggs was still a pretty elite target earner, seeing a target on 26.3% of his routes in 2023. His role in the offense remains to be seen, but perhaps a move to the slot could make it all work. Among these three WRs, Diggs’ 35.7% slot rate in 2023 was the highest between Tank (28.7%) and Nico (20.1%).

With Stroud likely to take a step forward in year two and the acquisition of Diggs, you’d think the Texans significantly up their rate of 3WR sets and their pass rate. In 2023, Houston ranked 21st in their percentage of drop backs that came with 3+ WRs on the field, 25th in 3WR sets on first downs and 19th in pass rate over expectation. Those numbers should skyrocket in 2024 – if they don’t, one of these WRs is very likely to be a massive bust at their respective ADPs.

Indianapolis Colts

Is Anthony Richardson ready to make the leap in year two?

It was a small sample size, but in 3.5 games played, Anthony Richardson led all signal callers in fantasy points per drop back. The Colts came out guns blazing in 2023, even with a rookie QB that most NFL Draft analysts suggested was a raw, inexperienced prospect. For reference, the dude started 13 (!!) total games at Florida. Shane Steichen for president!  In Weeks 1-5, Indy ranked fourth in situation neutral pace and third in no huddle rate. An offense that is willing to push it when it comes to pace combined with a QB who’s willing to run is generally a recipe for success when it comes to fantasy points.

In Richardson’s two full games started, he finished as the QB4 and the QB2 on the back of 20 total rush attempts, 13 of which were designed carries. On a 17-game pace, that’s a grand total of *checks notes, crunches numbers* 170 carries. No, that sort of thing almost certainly won’t happen, but in our UDK projections, we’ve got A-Rich running for nearly 700 yards. With his athletic profile, a strong supporting cast, and an offensive play caller who knows how to put his players in a position to succeed, Richardson is one of our favorite breakout candidates for 2024.

Recovering from season-ending shoulder surgery isn’t ideal for a QB who still needs to make strides as a passer, but the pieces are there for Richardson to compete as a top-three signal caller for fantasy in 2024, assuming he can make a full recovery and stay healthy. I fully expect him to be 100% entering Week 1, but his health and development as a passer is something worth tracking in August.

Jacksonville Jaguars

How will the Jags replace Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones?

Jacksonville quietly vacates the NFL’s fifth-highest target share (40.5%) and the league’s second-highest air yards share (67.6%). Perhaps more importantly, Calvin Ridley saw 12 targets inside the 10-yard line, the third-most in the entire league. In other words, there’s big time opportunity in Jacksonville.

The most logical explanation is that Brian Thomas Jr. immediately steps into a large role with this offense. After all, he was a first round selection, but I do have some concerns about his prospect profile and ability to earn targets (18.2% in his final season at LSU). Granted, he was playing next to stud Malik Nabers, but still…Per our own Kyle Borgognoni, Since 2015, only five 1st Round WRs had a final college season below 23% TPRR:

• Phillip Dorsett
• Henry Ruggs III
• Jalen Reagor
• Kadarius Toney
• Brian Thomas Jr.

It’s not a great list to be on! And as for Gabe Davis, his targets per route run have dropped in consecutive seasons, going from 15.9% to 14.1% in 2023. He signed a big time deal in free agency, but it’s quite possible Gabe the Babe is out there running wind sprints on the boundary, opening up tons of opportunity for the actual target earners in this offense: Christian Kirk and Evan Engram.

Kirk’s targets per route run numbers have climbed from 19.8% to 21.5% in 2023 while Evan Engram‘s TPRR jumped to 22.3% a year ago. In fact, only three NFL players had more catches than Easy E in 2023: CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill, and Amon-Ra St. Brown. It’s fun to chase the shiny new toy for an up and coming offense, but old reliable in Kirk and Engram might be the way to play in fantasy for 2024. Some are calling Kirk and Engram Best Ball League Winners.

Kansas City Chiefs

How long will Rashee Rice be suspended?

Rashee Rice had an awesome rookie season…his off-season has been anything but awesome. We’re still waiting on news from the NFL in regards to a potential suspension related to his motor vehicle accident from a few months ago and that potential situation looms large for 2024 fantasy drafts and specifically, the available playing time and target shares for his teammates. As previously stated, Rice’s rookie year was awesome – he posted an impressive 2.21 yards per route run mark while seeing just over 27% of the targets over the final six games. Simply put, the dude balled out in year one.

We know Kelce is going to get his, but Rice looks like (on paper at least), the next best target earner in this offense. It remains to be seen how much time Rice will miss, but if he’s only suspended two, four or six games and Kelce stays healthy, it’s tough to know how much volume rookie Xavier Worthy and Marquise Brown will see in this new look Chiefs offense. Brown has struggled quite a bit over the last two seasons, and sure, he’s dealt with poor QB play at times and has dealt with some injuries, but we’re drafting a WR awfully high for a guy who’s numbers have been trending in the wrong direction over the last three years:

• FPPG: 11.3 > 10.2 > 7.8
• Targets/Route Run: 22.2 % > 20.9% > 20.4%
• Yards/Route Run: 1.61 > 1.44 > 1.25

If Rice is only suspended 6 or fewer games, he’ll return for late season production, which in theory could limit his teammates’ late season upside when it matters most for fantasy. NFL, please sort this out sooner than later, so we know what to do!

Las Vegas Raiders

Who is going to win the starting QB job?

The Jimmy G experience in Las Vegas? Not great, Bob! After Garoppolo was finally benched and Josh McDaniels was fired, the team turned to former fourth rounder, Aidan O’Connell and Antonio Pierce. They went on to win five of their final nine games, including a Christmas miracle victory over the Chiefs.

Despite being rumored to be in on the QBs in this class, the Raiders left the NFL Draft without a signal caller and will be leaning on some combination of Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell. Minshew filled in admirably for Anthony Richardson last year as the Colts’ backup, and he was rewarded with a two-year deal worth $25 million. It’s not exactly starting QB money, so there’s a chance AOC can hold onto the job if he can win the battle in camp…but does it really matter?

As you can see, the two were basically the same player in 2023:

Perhaps it doesn't matter who wins the #Raiders QB job

AOC:
* 28th out of 39 QBs in PFF grade
* 29th in YPA
* 39th in CPOE
* 32nd in catchable target rate

Minshew:
* 31st in PFF grade
* 26th in YPA
* 38th in CPOE
* 33rd in catchable target rate pic.twitter.com/5etbQBISVI

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— Matthew Betz (@TheFantasyPT) May 10, 2024

Regardless of who wins the QB1 job, it’s unlikely to produce fantasy relevant numbers in this Luke Getsy offense. During his time as the Bears’ OC over the last two years, Chicago has ranked 30th in pass rate while operating at a snail’s pace. Expect the team to try to lean on the ground game and play physical football under Pierce as they did a year ago. The issue with that is that this team ranks 24th in projected strength of schedule, and they’re favored in just two games all year based on lookahead lines against only the Panthers and the Broncos. Meh.

Los Angeles Chargers

Who is the Chargers’ RB1?

Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman have one goal in mind: Run. The. (Bleep) Ball. The last time we saw Greg Roman as the OC of the Baltimore offense, the Ravens were second in the league in rush rate, and Jim? Well, the man loves a good HB dive play! The off-season moves suggest that trend will continue in 2024. LA let Mike Williams walk and traded Keenan Allen then drafted the top tackle prospect in the class fifth overall and signed multiple blocking TEs in free agency (Shoutout to Big Montana!). It’s no secret that the Chargers will be among the league leaders in rush rate, so who the heck should we be drafting as the RB1?

When the names are Gus Edwards, J.K. Dobbins and Kimani Vidal, it’s tough to really get excited for fantasy, but the identity of this team is in the running game. Let’s start with the contracts dealt out in free agency:

Still, the contracts between Gus Bus and Dobbins are quite different. One looks poised to see a fairly prominent role throughout the season, and the other looks a bit more like a lottery ticket:

• Edwards: 2-years, $6.5 million, ($3.375 million GTD)
• Dobbins: 1-year, $1.61 million ($50,000 GTD)

Yes, that’s correct. Dobbins’ contract includes just $50K guaranteed. For context, that’s less guaranteed money at signing than guys like Deejay Dallas, Cordarrelle Patterson, Ameer Abdullah, and Boston Scott. That, combined with his significant injury history, makes it a pretty tough sell outside of a late round Hail Mary. Gus Bus, on the other hand, has been a dependable option for Greg Roman for years going back to their days in Baltimore, and we know he’s been successful at the goal line.

As for the sixth round rookie out of Troy, Kimani Vidal, he’s got plenty of speed (4.46 40-yard dash) with three-down NFL size (5’8″, 213 lbs.) and even produced as a good pass catcher in college, logging just over 90 receptions and 700 receiving yards in four years at Troy. That said, historically speaking, day three rookie RBs out of small schools are a terrible bet for fantasy, but the depth chart competition is obviously not very scary, and this offense is going to run, run, run. Vidal is worth monitoring throughout camp to see if he’s making noise, but as it stands in mid July, it looks like Gus Bus is RB1 for now. Keep in mind, however, that Edwards missed the majority of the team’s off-season program recovering from an undisclosed injury.

Los Angeles Rams

How much will Blake Corum eat into Kyren Williams‘ workload?

Find someone who loves you the way Sean McVay loves Kyren Williams. The former Notre Dame RB is coming off a season where he played 82% of the offensive snaps while handling a massive 23 opportunities per game. That 82% snap share, by the way, includes Week 1 where Cam Akers was the “starter” and Week 12 against the Cardinals when Kyren only played 62% of the snaps coming off IR from his high ankle sprain. If you look at his non-injury affected games, he actually played 86% of the snaps.

But here’s the thing – Kyren was actually great with that volume; he wasn’t just a product of the accumulated touches. Among 49 backs with 90+ rush attempts last year, Kyren ranked tied for fifth in yards per carry, ninth in yards after contact per attempt, and he was seventh among qualified RBs in NextGen Stats’ rushing yards over expected per attempt. A profile with those metrics on an offense that projects to be in the mix as a top-10 unit shouldn’t have question marks entering draft season.

However, Kyren Williams picked up another foot injury this off-season, and the team drafted Michigan’s Blake Corum in the third round. The team’s comments on this situation have suggested that Williams will continue to be heavily utilized as the RB1, but can we project 80+% of the snaps again and over 20 opportunities per game? Monitoring Corum’s usage in the preseason and role with the starters will be helpful in determining if we’re overreacting to the Corum selection. After all, Travis Etienne faders last year learned the hard way that rookies still need to produce and do their job in order to find the field and take touches away from an established starter.

Miami Dolphins

Is Devon Achane ready to handle more opportunities in 2024?

Achane is the definition of lightning in a bottle, leading the NFL in well, just about every efficiency metric imaginable. In fact, his efficiency metrics are breaking every fantasy football nerd’s (Kyle) spreadsheets this off-season as we try to figure out a) if the efficiency is sustainable and b) if Achane will see more work in year two.

Achane’s 7.8 (lol) yards per carry mark last year was the best ever for a RB in a single season, and he lapped the field in NextGen Stats’ Rushing Yards over Expected metric. The man is #good at the game, but the usage last year was anything but elite. Here’s how the touches were split in the eight games where Mostert and Achane were both healthy:

• Achane: 83 rush attempts, 30 targets
• Mostert: 96 rush attempts, 20 targets

And on the season, Mostert’s goal line role was nothing short of elite (He did lead the NFL in TDs a year ago, after all). Mostert saw 33 carries inside the 10-yard line while Achane saw just 11. If Mostert stays healthy, it’s hard to see Achane stealing that role from the veteran given how effective he was a year ago. And then there’s fourth round rookie, Jaylen Wright out of Tennessee, whom the Dolphins traded a 2025 third round pick to move up and select. The man can absolutely fly, but he’s pretty clearly the RB3 on the depth chart entering the season. Even still, if Wright can steal let’s say 5-7 touches per game as the year goes on and Mostert keeps doing his thing, there’s not a ton of meat left on the bone for Achane to become at 15+ touch per game type of guy.

Good news, though. He probably doesn’t have to be, especially in this scheme to still be great for fantasy football. We already know Achane is fantastic, so he can probably pay off his ADP on 12-14 touches per game, but there’s also some pretty meaningful contingent upside if Mostert either regresses or misses time due to injury. Worth noting, Mostert is 32 years old, which is big time danger territory for the RB age cliff. All in all, I find myself obviously wanting some exposure to the NFL’s most electric playmaker on a great offense, but we probably need to recognize there’s. some downside to his elevated ADP. Tracking the split between Achane and Mostert in camp with the ones is going to be really important, and I’ll also be monitoring if Wright is making much noise in his first training camp as a pro, too.

Minnesota Vikings

When will J.J. McCarthy take over as the QB1?

At this point in the off-season, all signs point to Sam Darnold entering camp as the top QB on the depth chart, but to me, the question is when, not if J.J. McCarthy takes over as the starter. McCarthy was a highly coveted prospect out of Michigan, and the Vikings were able to grab him 10th overall in the 2024 NFL Draft, and in recent years Round 1 rookie QBs don’t sit on the bench for very long. The Vikings have their bye in Week 6, so that could naturally be a pivot point in the season for McCarthy to take over for the final two and a half months.

While Kevin O’Connell’s scheme is very QB friendly (Nick Mullens was slinging the rock last year!), Darnold has really struggled as a pro. Through six years as a pro, Darnold has a middling 6.7 YPA and a 63 to 56 TD-to-INT ratio. In theory, he could play well enough with these weapons to start longer than we expect, but J.J. McCarthy was a dang good prospect coming out of Michigan.

No, the raw stats won’t blow you away for a QB who played on one of the FBS’ most run heavy teams, but per FanDuel Research’s Jim Sannes, McCarthy was lights out, even in obvious passing situations. Among the top six QBs in the class, no one had more of their attempts come on 3rd and 6 or longer, and in those obvious passing situations where the defense knew a pass was coming, McCarthy shredded the opposition for 13.1 AY/A.

Like any rookie QB, it might take time for McCarthy to develop, but I’m higher on him than consensus, and O’Connell’s scheme + elite weaponry could help him get off to a faster start than we think, especially if he’s getting meaningful run with the ones in camp. ESPN’s Bill Barnwell ranks the Vikings as a top-five skill group entering the 2024 campaign. If there’s a sneaky C.J. Stroud candidate in this class not named Caleb Williams, to me, it’s JJ.

New England Patriots

How will the WR rotation shake out?

There are so many question marks with the Patriots that I could have gone any number of directions with this segment. The QB situation is up in the air with the rookie Drake Maye and veteran Jacoby “Where’s the Beef?” Brissett, and the backfield could have a new look and feel to it with Antonio Gibson now in town. To me, though, the top priority in terms of fantasy football is trying to figure out this WR room, which is a complete mess as of mid July. As it stands, not a single WR is being drafted inside the top 14 rounds of 12 team leagues over on Sleeper. But even on bad teams, there’s usually a diamond in the rough to be found.

Early reports following mini-camp seem to indicate that the top three WRs as of now in terms of starters are former Vikings WR K.J. Osborn, last year’s day three rookie out of Liberty Pop Douglas and this year’s second-round rookie Ja’Lynn Polk. And of course, complicating matters is the fact that Kendricke Bourne, who was quietly pretty good last year, is recovering from a torn ACL. Even with the injury, the team clearly values him, signing him to a three-year contract extension this off-season.

Behind those names, the ghost of JuJu Smith-Schuster still lingers while UCF’s Javon Baker has some fans in the dynasty community as a sleeper in an ambiguous WR room. I suspect the team will use a rotation of some sort at WR, especially when Bourne is healthy, but I personally want to be betting against the JuJu and Osborn types in favor of the younger, ascending talents in Pop Douglas and Ja’Lynn Polk.

Demario Douglas performed well on a per route basis a year ago, averaging 1.88 yards per route run despite playing for a rather dysfunctional offense with McCorkle Jones back there. Of course, at just 5’8″, it’s tough to see Douglas earning an every down role in 2WR sets, so he’s probably going to continue to be heavily utilized in the slot. He could manufacture some useable PPR weeks assuming the Pats are playing from behind, but there’s not a ton of ceiling here. To me, the guy to chase in terms of upside is the rookie Polk.

New England used the 37th overall pick on the former Washington Husky, and while he didn’t have the best production profile coming out of school, he put up some big time numbers playing next to a top-10 talent in Rome Odunze, and the draft capital says we need to pay attention. There’s so many moving parts here, but ambiguous situations can be very profitable for fantasy football if we can hit on the right guy. For now, I’m watching this WR room closely and monitoring Bourne’s health as we approach Week 1. And hey, what if Drake Maye is way better than people thing? Ya never know!

New Orleans Saints

Who is the RB2?

Kyle and I have talked a lot about the new look Saints offense with OC Klint Kubiak on the Dynasty Podcast and the DFS & Betting Podcast. Kubiak comes over from San Francisco, so we’re hoping to see a more innovative scheme that features plenty of pre-snap motion and a more efficient running game. Alvin Kamara could bounce back in this scheme as a runner if it all clicks, but it’s fair to wonder if the PPR stud muffin is hitting an age cliff, especially as a ball carrier.

His yards per target has declined in four straight seasons (7.1 > 6.6 > 6.4 > 5.4), and his 6.6 YAC per Reception in 2023 was the lowest of his career. As a runner, Kamara also showed some signs of decline as he set career lows in each of the following categories: Breakaway Rush Rate, Elusive Rating and Yards after Contact per Attempt. He was also 46th out of 49 qualified runners (Min. 90 attempts) in NextGenStats’ Rushing Yards over Expectation per Attempt metric, besting only Dameon Pierce, Kareem Hunt and Jamaal Williams. Unfortunately, the soon to be 29-year-old was also recently holding out from mini camp with the hopes of a contract extension. There’s just a lot pointing to a less than ideal situation here for the once dominant Kamara, not to mention the fact that his offensive line appears to be in complete shambles (32nd entering the year per PFF).

The offensive line concerns are an issue for whoever wins the RB2 job, but if Kamara does fall off and/or share the field more with another RB, there could be some sneaky value late in drafts. The logical choice here is last year’s third round pick out TCU, Kendre Miller. Unfortunately, Miller missed basically the entire off-season last year recovering from MCL surgery then dealt with injuries for most of the regular season before flashing in Week 18. Trusted Saints beat, Nick Underhill, has recently discussed on his podcast that Jamaal Williams might be in pole position for the RB2 job based on his trust from the coaching staff. Unfortunately, J Willy, the hip thrusting, anime loving, TD scoring machine from two years ago with the Lions might be literal dust.

Among RBs with 50+ carries last year, he was borderline unwatchable:

• Only Tank Bigsby, Dameon Pierce, Matt Breida and Cam Akers had a worse YPC (2.9)
• He was 64th out of 69 backs in yards after contact per attempt
• J Willy was dead last in rushing yards over expected per attempt

The guy might just play more than us nerds in our mom’s basement prefer, but it’s quite obvious that he’s at the cliff (or past it). Right now, I’m optimistic that Kendre can flash in camp and gain the trust of the coaches, but I’m skeptical that Jamaal might just win the RB2. Sigh…

New York Giants

How healthy is Daniel Jones?

New York’s starting QB tore his ACL in his right knee in Week 9 last year against the Raiders. By all accounts, his recovery has gone well, and he’s projected to be ready to go for Week 1. Jones finds himself at the crossroads of his career as an NFL starter. The G-Men inked him to a big time extension, but it’s quite possible they’ve got buyer’s remorse after the team was rumored to be interested in the top QB prospects in this class. On top of that, Jones has some injury guarantees in his contract that could prevent him from starting at the end of the 2024 season, especially if the team is out of playoff contention (Think Russell Wilson, Derek Carr of recent years).

Jones has flashed fantasy upside when he’s been under center, most recently in 2022 when he finished the year as the QB9, thanks largely to 120/708/7 rushing stat line in 16 games. Any QB who’s capable of those numbers with his legs should be on our radar as a late round QB or 2QB pick if he’s healthy enough to actually run the way he has in the past. I did a study a couple of years ago looking at QBs in year one off the ACL, and my biggest takeaway was that just about every QB’s rushing efficiency (yards per carry) declines in year one off the injury.

Last year, Kyler Murray returned to the field in Week 10 and averaged 5.5 YPC, a bit below is previous career average of 5.8. Jones isn’t the most electric runner of the football (Yes, I’m reliving the trip at the 5-yard line against the Eagles, too), but he’s capable of ceiling performances when healthy – see Week 2 last year when he finished as the QB1 against Arizona. Bottom line: Jones has the potential to be a solid low end QB1 when healthy or at least a weekly streaming candidate in the right matchup. I’ll be closely monitoring his health in August as well as his on-field chemistry with the No. 6 overall pick, Malik Nabers.

New York Jets

Will it finally click with Aaron Rodgers in New York?

Last year’s debut was over before it even began and well…we know how that went. Zach Wilson was…Zach Wilson, the offensive line was a mess and the Jets were one of the league’s worst offenses in football. Considering all of that, Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson were still so impressive a year ago. And now, we’re right back to where we were a year ago at this time. Expectations are sky high entering camp:

• The Jets are favored in 14 of 17 games this year based on lookahead Vegas lines
• New York is #1 in the NFL in terms of projected points above where they finished a year ago based on Vegas lines
• Gang Green has the seventh-shortest odds to lead the NFL in wins per DK Sportsbook

Rodgers will be a year removed from his Achilles injury when the season kicks off in early September, and I don’t really have any concerns about that specifically, especially for a true pocket passer who won’t be scrambling much, if at all. Fortunately, the front office recognized the primary issue for this team – the offensive line. Sure, some of their additions aren’t in their prime any longer, but they put enough resources into their front five to be ranked fifth entering the year per PFF. It’s really not difficult to see a world where it goes quite well for the Jets, especially with all of their playmakers on the defensive side of the ball but…*whispers* It’s been a long time since Aaron Rodgers has played at a high level (ducks).

The future Hall of Famer missed all of 2023, of course, but in 2022, here’s how he performed out of 36 QBs with 200+ drop backs:

• 15th in Adjusted Completion Rate
• T-24th in YPA
• 23rd in EPA/play
• 22nd in Success Rate

Granted, that was his first year without Davante Adams, so the weapons weren’t elite and he dealt with a thumb injury, so context is important. I’m not saying Rodgers is done or that he won’t bounce back; I just think we need to recognize a world where things perhaps maybe possibly don’t work out the way everyone is expecting. I hope we get nothing but positive reports out of camp, but I’m watching closely, especially with Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson both going inside the top-12 picks.

Philadelphia Eagles

Can Kellen Moore help us forget about the final six weeks of the 2023 season?

What an absolute train wreck that was, huh? Philly was 10-1 through the first two-thirds of the season then stumbled down the stretch after CMC and Deebo embarrassed them in Week 13. Including that Week 13 pantsing, Philly went on to lose five of their final six games with the season ultimately culminating in an embarrassing showing in the Wild Card round against Tampa.

Former OC Brian Johnson’s scheme was pretty vanilla compared to what the Eagles had two years ago with Shane Steichen. The 2023 Eagles’ scheme was flat out stale with their offense ranking dead last in motion at the snap and their play action rate falling off a cliff. The Success Rate and efficiency on throws between the numbers also took a nosedive per Warren Sharp. In 2022, Hurts’ success rate on throws between the numbers was 70% with an impressive 11.1 YPA. In 2023, those numbers fell to 50% and 8.1 YPA. Brian Johnson basically made life harder on Hurts, and the offense also played much slower compared to the 2022 season when they led the NFL in pace of play under Steichen (17th in 2023).

Enter Kellen Moore, who’s teams have been consistently among the league leaders in pace since he began calling plays as an OC. Going back to his days in Dallas and most recently in LA, Moore’s units have ranked first, first, second, fourth and fourth. His offenses have also ranked inside the top-10 in no huddle rate every year that he’s been an coordinator. For fantasy, you love to see it! We should get a ton of play volume from Philly with an offense that will look to keep the pedal to the metal.

Moore’s Chargers were also fifth pre-snap in motion in 2023 while also ranking in the top half of the league in play action rate, so life (in theory) should be much easier on Hurts and company in 2024. All in all, Moore will try to replicate the magic we saw back in 2022 with Steichen at the helm. There’s similarities in their schemes, so I’m optimistic about Philly’s offense resembling what we saw two years ago when the Birds won the NFC. Perhaps the most exciting thing about all of this is that Moore is going to scheme up so many easy looks for A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. Assuming we get some good reports on how this offense looks in camp, I plan on aggressively targeting the Philly weapons in my drafts.

Pittsburgh Steelers

How many games will Russell Wilson start?

Every beat reporter and national reporter has been adamant that Wilson is the starter entering camp and Week 1, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll be starting at the end of the season when it matters most for the fantasy playoffs. Justin Fields offers fantasy players far more upside if he can either take over the starting job at some point or Wilson happens to miss time due to injury, and he’s basically free in drafts.

At this point in his career, Wilson is clearly not the player he was five years ago, but he’s far more likely to manage the game, limit turnovers and be willing to hand it off over and over again in this low volume passing offense, so I see the appeal/scheme fit with Arthur Smith and Mike Tomlin who will seemingly try to win every game 17-14 this year and play “Steeler football.” In camp, I’m watching to see if Fields and Wilson are splitting reps with the ones or if it’s just the Russ show exclusively. Fields has struggled as a passer but for fantasy, he’s been fantastic, ranking fifth and second in fantasy points per drop back over the last two years. If he gets a shot to start games, he could be a waiver wire wonder in 2024.

San Francisco 49ers

Will the Niners sign Brandon Aiyuk to an extension?

Man, there’s really not a ton of question marks regarding this team, so I’ll keep it short and sweet. Their depth chart is one of the most solidified in the league. Heck, even their RB2 Elijah Mitchell looks locked and loaded for backup work/contingent value should CMC miss time. But the obvious question mark regarding this team is the contract situation of Brandon Aiyuk.

The dude was an absolute baller in 2023 as one of just three players to post a 3+ YPRR rate during the regular season. The others? Tyreek Hill and the aforementioned Nico Collins. He good! And he knows it…and he wants to be compensated accordingly. For 2024, I can’t see a world where either Deebo or Aiyuk are dealt. The Niners are in their Super Bowl window with a young QB on a dirt cheap rookie deal. They’re all in. For 2025 and beyond, though, the first round selection of Ricky Pearsall tells us quite a bit.

I’m down on Ricky P for redraft given the never ending list of playmakers at their disposal (they also paid Kyle Shanahan’s favorite blocker Jauan Jennings), but he’s a really interesting target for dynasty players looking forward to 2025 and beyond. If the Niners can’t get a deal done with Aiyuk before the regular season, it’s likely he’s playing elsewhere a year from now, which means Pearsall’s value will probably skyrocket in about six months.

Seattle Seahawks

Can the Seattle passing attack bounce back with Ryan Grubb?

Two years ago, the Seahawks were awesome, especially considering their skill players were buried in ADP with the concerns about Geno at QB. Last year, Geno and the boys took a massive step back. Is 2024 the time to go right back to their main pass catchers with the new OC change? Things are going to look a heck of a lot different in Seattle with Pete Carrol and his beautiful white Nike Air Monarchs no longer on the sideline.

New HC Mike MacDonald comes over from Baltimore where he was the DC, and he hired former Washington Huskies HC Ryan Grubb to be his OC. Grubb and the Huskies passing attack was lights out a year ago with Michael Penix, Rome Odunze, Ja’Lynn Polk and Jalen McMillan. With that core, Washington was ninth among all Power 5 schools in pass rate at just over 61% with an emphasis on a vertical passing attack. In theory, that should be music to D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s ears…if the O-line can hold up.

The Huskies had several offensive linemen drafted this past April. They were quite dominant in 2023 at the FBS level. The O-line for the Seahawks was anything but in 2024, ranking 25th in ESPN’s Pass Block Win Rate and 28th in PFF pass block grade. They did have some key injuries a year ago, so that probably played a role, but it is worth noting that Geno was quite bad under pressure. Among 33 QBs who logged 100+ drop backs against pressure, Geno’s 5.3 YPA was tied for 24th, just behind Kenny Pickett (gulp). To me, the biggest question mark in terms of if this new scheme is going to deliver fantasy goodness is whether or not the OL can hold up and allow time for Geno to deliver it deep. Sadly, PFF has this unit ranked 31st heading into the regular season, so they’re not overly optimistic.

In addition to the O-line play, fantasy gamers are going to want to closely monitor JSN’s role in this new look offense. His 6.4-yard aDOT in 2023 as a rookie was painful. According to PFF, JSN led all players who saw 30+ looks in the rate of targets that came at or behind the line of scrimmage. On top of that, Smith-Njigba struggled to see the field in 2WR sets, running 14 total routes with 2WRs on the field a year ago. Translation: the former regime pretty much viewed him as a backup to Lockett/Metcalf.  Those looking to buy the dip on JSN should be praying for one of two things (or both):

1. Seattle drastically increases their rate of 11 personnel of first downs (They were 23rd in the NFL last year)
2. Lockett continues to decline as a player – His YPRR and yards per target have dropped in three straight seasons

All in all, there’s a wide range of outcomes here. Is Geno the guy he was in 2022 or 2023? Is JSN a sneaky year two post-hype sleeper? Can the O-line hold up to make it all possible? Those are the things we should be looking for in camp and in the preseason.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

What does the move back to the slot mean for Chris Godwin?

There’s been a lot of talk recently about Chris Godwin moving back to the slot for the 2024 season. Considering how he’s been used for the majority of his NFL career it makes too much sense. He’s coming off a 37% slot rate in 2023, his lowest since 2018, but he was still great when he played there, averaging just over 2.0 yards per route run out of the slot, a top-20 mark among WRs who saw 30+ slot targets a year ago.

Godwin certainly isn’t getting any younger, so perhaps this move is what’s best for his career and for his fantasy value. In 2022 and 2021, Godwin’s slot rate was well above 70%, so he’s obviously more than comfortable operating in the middle of the field. New OC, Liam Cohen comes from the McVay/Rams tree, and their scheme has obviously done a phenomenal job of scheming looks for some dudes named Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. No, I’m not saying Godwin is the same player as those guys, but there’s plenty of reasons to buy back into Godwin as a potential value in 2024 if this move back to the slot actually happens.

Godwin has underperformed massively in the TD department over the last few years despite logging 1,000+ yards in three straight years and four of his last five. Over the last two years, he’s found the painted box just two and three times despite having an expected TD total of 6.2 in 2023 and 4.5 in 2022. If we get a bump in efficiency with his move back to the slot and he’s able to score a few more times and catch the right side of TD variance, we could really be cooking in 2024 with a WR who’s coming off the board in the back of the seventh round over on Sleeper.

Tennessee Titans

Can Brian Callahan install the Cincinnati scheme with this personnel?

There’s no question that the Titans offense of the last few years is a thing of the past. Mike Vrabel and Derrick Henry are gone, and this offense should go from one of the league’s most run heavy in the NFL to one of the league’s most pass happy schemes in the league. For context, under Vrabel over the last four years, only two NFL teams have been more run heavy than the Titans. Over the last two seasons in Cincy, Callahan’s Bengals have led the NFL in neutral situation pass rate, and they’re second in the league in 11 personnel usage. We’re obviously going to see a very, very different team in Nashville this year.

That’s all well and good in theory, but Callahan is coming from a team that featured three dudes named Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Call me crazy, but the trio of Will Levis, Calvin Ridley and 32-year-old DeAndre Hopkins aren’t really in the same conversation. For context, here’s where Mr. Banana-Rama ranked among 48 QBs with 100+ drop backs last year:

• 31st in EPA
• 26th in CPOE
• 30th passer rating
• 42nd in catchable target rate
  

And as for Calvin Ridley, I’m not even sure he’s the best WR on his own team! When looking at last year’s numbers, DeAndre Hopkins was much, much better:

• YPRR:
  • DeAndre Hopkins (2.09, 18th)
  • Calvin Ridley (1.57, 46th)

• TPRR:
  • Hopkins (26.3%, 11th)
  • Ridley (20.4%, 38th)

• First Downs/RR:
  • Hopkins: 22nd
  • Ridley: 47th
• PFF Receiving Grade:
  • Hopkins (82.3, 18th)
  • Ridley (72.2, 42nd)

Ridley is a guy who’s got some value based on his monster contract, but the truth of the matter is that he’s largely been an above average starter, not a superstar. Yes, in 2020, he went bonkers with a 2.44 yards per route run rate, but in his other years, he’s failed to eclipse in 1.80 YPRR in any season. Now, he’s dealing with major QB question marks on an offense that “features” PFF’s 30th ranked offensive line entering the year. For a QB that ranked 31st out of 33rd qualified QBs in adjusted completion rate against pressure, that’s…not ideal!

Washington Commanders

Does Austin Ekeler have anything left in the tank?

I could have picked any number of storylines with the Commanders – Jayden Daniels‘ development, Jahan Dotson as a post hype sleeper, etc. but when I look at this team, the thing I want to figure out is the RB position. Under Kliff Kingsbury, Arizona’s backs have been quite productive, especially when they get in close, running at one of the highest rates in football inside the red zone. Of course, the team signed Ekeler for a reason, but it’s very fair to wonder if Ekeler is at the age cliff after what we saw a year ago.

Caveat – he did have a high ankle sprain early in the year and it’s quite possible that injury led to his downfall. However, he’s also 29 years old and changing teams after career lows in just about every efficiency metric, especially as a runner. Among 50 RBs with 100+ carries a year ago, Ekeler ranked 40th in yards after contact per attempt, and only Jamaal Williams and Kareem Hunt had fewer 10+ yard runs…Ew! As a pass catcher, Ekeler’s yards per route run fell off quite a bit, going from 1.71 to 1.58 to 1.55 and eventually 1.25 in 2023. That mark, by the way, is a career low.

And now, he’s going to play with a mobile QB who’s career college scramble rate was out of this world. Because of those projected rushing numbers, Daniels is far less likely to check it down than someone like Justin Herbert or Derek Carr, which means, when you boil it down, Ekeler probably has to: 1) Beat out Brian Robinson Jr. for RB1/goal line duties and 2) Drastically improve his efficiency from the year prior.

Historically speaking, when RBs show that level of decline, expecting a bounce back is a losing strategy in fantasy land, especially for a team with a 6.5-win total projection playing behind PFF’s 27th ranked O-line entering the year. Let’s remember the good times with Awesome Excellence and pray that he’s got something left in the tank! I’m not sure he does…