Jayden Daniels’ Range of Outcomes & Recent Dynasty History (Fantasy Football)
Recently on the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty podcast, Betz and myself discussed rookie QB Jayden Daniels among many others players in our “Range of Outcomes” segment.
The goal of the exercise was to examine players without arriving at a singular rank as our only point of discussion. Every NFL player has a range of outcomes and we essentially make bets on the probabilities of them hitting those different thresholds. The median projection is normally what you see when you look at rankings but in the Ultimate Draft Kit, we are added an upside meter giving fantasy managers confidence intervals in the ceiling case.
For the third year in a row, I’m undertaking the process of looking at a mobile QB hyped for dynasty purposes. I wrote this EXACT same article regarding Trey Lance and last year for Anthony Richardson. The similarities are striking considering both QBs were mobile QBs drafted in the top 5 who also were taken by dynasty managers at QB10 in startups. Daniels is eerily similar so I thought I’d finish the drill.
For a detailed look at Daniels as a prospect, I took a deep dive into his Rookie Profile before the NFL Draft. For more on Daniels’ dynasty outlook, the Dynasty Pass found in the Ultimate Draft Kit+ is a must.
Let’s compare Daniels to other 1st round QBs, identify their similarities as runners, and then project a range of outcomes for dynasty.
Exploring Historical Comps
Using other players as historical comparisons is not a perfect science. In fact, it can be detrimental if* it is the only means of trying to project players. Historical comparisons are orthogonal as those players and their performances have ZERO influence on Daniels’ performance in the NFL. Keep that in mind. We use historical buckets as part of the puzzle but not the defining aspect of a player’s future performance.
For Daniels, here is his current situation according to our rookie rankings and dynasty startup rankings:
- Age: 23.4 yrs old / NFL Draft: 1.02 / Rookie Ranks: 14th/ 1.03-1.04 in SFlex
- Current Startup Rank: QB12
For this exercise, let’s follow the same logic as previous Range of Outcome articles and pair Daniels with a couple of QBs that are similar in the sense that they meet the following criteria:
- Drafted as a 1st round QB
- Possessed Major Rushing Upside in College
For the data set, I looked at every 1st round QB drafted since 1995 (75+ different guys) and then narrowed that list to every QB that saw at least a 10 percent rush share in their best rushing season, a total of 36. That was the threshold I found where college rushing production dictated that they were likely to carry over into the NFL. You can also see the emphasis on dual-threat QBs over the last two decades where the “pro-style” drop-back passer of yesteryear slowly faded as a 1st round must at the position. Daniels’ 43% rush share in his best college season is the 3rd highest ever for a QB drafted in the first round of the draft.
Every 1st round QB since 1995 who surpassed 18+ % of their team's rushing yardage (best % season). pic.twitter.com/A8QCHrEdIA
— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) February 5, 2024
It’s a pretty fun list and some of the numbers at the top are eye-popping. You sometimes forget how dominant Johnny Manziel was… As a runner, he finished with nearly 25 percent of the team’s rushing yardage (which is close to elite for a QB) including a number of highlight reel runs I’m sure you’ll see played over and over.
Scenario 1: The Median Outcome
This scenario might be the most measured and perhaps a wimp’s way out considering you might not have the time nor have invested in Daniels for a median projection. Unfortunately, it’s easier seeing him finish somewhere in the extended middle (somewhere between 65-70 % likelihood) which likely means you missed out on the shot for greatness or a dumpster fire. If he only slightly increases his dynasty ADP from his rookie year and tops out as QB5-8 but never any higher, you likely made a wise investment although you might wish the returns were higher with a player with this type of hype.
For Daniels to maintain or slightly increase his dynasty value a year from now, we’d like to see the following:
The dual-threat ability is apparent– It’s ok if his TD rate isn’t quite there (think 3ish %) but if the rushing is as advertised, we are cooking. Among 41 rookie QBs with 10+ starts since 2010, the average TD rate was just 3.6%, below the league average rate (4.1%) over that same span. It is to be expected for a rookie.
He starts 9+ games*– Among rookie QBs with this threshold, 75% were a QB1 in the next two years. This presumes he stays healthy and/or competent enough to continue starting games for this Commander’s team. Marcus Mariota is not a threat at this point in his career of overtaking Daniels. But I do need to add a caveat to this marker. Even if he is injured*, it almost prolongs the anticipation as we’ve seen with Anthony Richardson and Trey Lance. Dynasty managers were willing to wait and see with both QBs despite the limited sample size because if you hit with a mobile QB, you have found the holy grail of QBs. Both Richardson and Lance were being drafted higher than their rookie years in startups despite a combined six starts(!) and eight total TD passes. Daniels can get the same free pass even if he doesn’t start the entire season because rushing QBs enthrall us.
One of the areas of growth I’ve mentioned for Daniels will be in the play-action passing game. Among the six QBs drafted in the first round in 2024, he was by far the lowest of the group. In fact, that ranked 155th(!) out of 162 qualifying QBs in the NCAA.
The league average for 2023 was 23.1% of dropbacks so I do want to temper any worry about this statistic. Young QBs in systems where they are brought along slowly are often closer to 30%, and schemes with highly mobile QBs like Lamar Jackson (28%), Jalen Hurts (26.5%), and Justin Fields (25.9%) often hit rates much higher. In Kliff Kingsbury’s four years (2019-2022) as head coach of the Cardinals, Kyler Murray‘s play-action rates looked very similar with well above league-average numbers (26.9%, 29.9% & 30.3%) for the first three years before plummeting in Year 4 to just 19.4% and eventually Kliff’s exodus from the desert in Arizona.
Dynasty Archetype for This Scenario
To be honest, I found it difficult to find multiple median fantasy comparisons for Daniels. Going back to 2000, the highest college rushing yardage for a 1st round QB measuring at 6’3″ or taller and under 220 lbs. is Alex Smith but Daniels should not be compared to the former No. 1 overall pick. He is a unicorn when we mix his production, height/weight, and age. His breakout age (18.7) sounds terrific except that at 23.2, he finds himself in the 20th percentile of QBs drafted in 1st round in 2000.
I wrote a couple of years ago about Rookie QBs & What History Can Tell Us when Kyler Murray came into the league. The main findings were since 1990, every rookie QB that crossed 80 rushing attempts has not only been a fantasy force but maintained a top-10 QB per game pace. To give perspective, 80 rushing attempts is 4.7 per game in this new 17-game era. Based on our early season-long projections in the Ultimate Draft Kit, Daniels will fly by this marker.
However, the median outcome for him considers the surrounding context (Washington’s offense) and system (Kliff Kingsbury). After a year at USC, Kingsbury denied the Raiders and hitched his wagon in Washington as Dan Quinn’s play-caller. The Commanders led the NFL in pass attempts under Eric Bieniemy but failed to support any top-end fantasy options. The biggest bugaboo of Kingsbury’s offenses in Arizona was the lack of big plays and locking in on beating teams “horizontally”. Daniels has the size and arm strength but he needs the trust of a coaching staff and opportunities on 3rd and long in this area of the field.
I did find one “superstar” who fits the rushing + draft capital conversation that also ended with a much more measured fantasy outcome than we initially desired.
Michael Vick– Maybe your memory is a bit hazy at this point as Vick is either known more for his dog-fighting saga or his video game nature. Madden 2004 aside, Vick only finished inside the top-5 at the QB position three times in his career and never threw for more than 21 passing TDs. The legal issues stunted Vick’s fantasy prowess but nevertheless, he never developed in the completion percentage department failing to hit 60% in any full season. The hype never matched the fantasy production. I also compare Vick to Daniels as both possess that innate “flick” motion where the ball just zips to his receivers. The eye-popping, video game-like numbers for Daniels in his Heisman season and the highlight reel plays are what currently races in our mind forgetting the NFL is a cruel place to dash our dreams. This median outcome for Daniels is good… just not great. His artificial dynasty value would be boosted on this type of excitement alone but walk through Vick’s fantasy logs and you certainly would feel like there was more meat left on the bone.
For the polarizing outcomes, there are more players to fill in the gaps within our projection of Daniels.
Scenario 2: He Crushes.
The obvious trump card Daniels possesses for fantasy is the ability to rush the ball. Here are all the rookie QBs to average 30+ rushing yards per game since 2010. Every single one became a top-12 in Year 1 or Year 2 but the high-end outcomes are tantalizing when you survey this group.
Dynasty Archetypes for This Scenario
Lamar Jackson– Hey, not bad for a “running back”. The ridiculous run-first jokes aside, Jackson’s production in college is in a tier of his own. He was basically two players in one at Louisville en route to the Heisman and barely even making our 1st round QB data set with the 32nd selection in 2018. He’s won two MVPs and shown, that despite sometimes throwing an ugly ball, he can make it as an NFL passer.Lamar responded to critics and put up his 2nd MVP season setting career-highs in starts (16), completion percentage (67%), yards per attempt (8.0), and ranking #1 in fantasy points per dropback among all QBs. While he didn’t see as many designed runs in this Todd Monken offensive system, it was an all-around impressive season despite the Ravens succumbing to yet another AFC playoff exit. He’s a bit more volatile week-to-week as a fantasy QB than you might think but when you run like he does, he’s still elite in our minds. Jackson is going as the QB3 in startups. Daniels isn’t quite as dynamic as Jackson on the ground (no one is) but you can see the path for a QB bent on rushing the ball having paired success through the air and becoming basically unstoppable for fantasy. If Daniels goes ham in Year 1, he could enter fringe top-5 startup territory for SuperFlex and knock on the door of the elites. He’s arguably the best rushing QB ever needing just 851 more rushing yards to break Michael Vick’s career record. Oh, and Lamar has done it in just 86 games played compared to Vick’s 143. Daniels can be 85% of Lamar and still enter a rare stratsophere for fantasy football.
Robert Griffin III– This one is a bit too easy to not mention here. He is one of only two rookie QBs (Justin Herbert is the other) with 27+ combined TDs and over 300+ fantasy points. It’s painful to include RG3 as a comp because we’re always left with what could’ve been. For this exercise, we’re looking at raw production (and not the Washington team) as arguably one of the best rookie passers. His 8.1 yards per pass attempt was recently bested by C.J. Stroud (8.2) for the best ever for a rookie QB and his 102.4 QB rating was surpassed only by Dak Prescott. RG3 was efficient, electric, and a clear template for Daniels crushing in Year 1.
Scenario 3: Dude is a Big-Time Bust
Yikes! That sounds a bit harsh. But this is usually the pendulum swinging to the other side in arguments. If you’re not a fan of Daniels for various reasons, it can be easy to see everything with poo-stained (instead of rose-colored) glasses.
The biggest spots on his resumè have to start with his scramble rate. His running style is more sudden than incredibly electric and the easiest way to explain that is how he ran. Designed runs and scrambles (non-designed runs) are very different in their effectiveness in the NFL and how NFL defenses can respond.
As Nate Tice explained, Daniels’ total number of scrambles (258 since 2019) towers above anyone else in the NCAA over that timeframe. Over the last two seasons at LSU, Daniels averaged 4.8 scrambles per game per PFF. He posted the highest scramble rate (31.7%) of any college QB in their final season with 250+ dropbacks over the last decade. To put those numbers in perspective, I thought comparing Daniels to the league’s premier rushing QB (maybe of all-time) might give us something to look at.
“Scrambling” 5+ times a game isn’t going to be sustainable in the NFL with bigger, faster, and stronger athletes pinning their ears. It also masks some of the inefficiencies (see: Justin Fields) that young QBs have as passers.
Here are three factors to consider on Daniels’ low-end outcomes.
1. The deep ball doesn’t translate– In my film evaluation of Daniels, I didn’t see a ton of throws between the numbers or in-breaking routes apart from Malik Nabers creating after the catch. 20+ Yard throws are what the highlight reels will show over and over again but as I’ve mentioned numerous times, the #1 area of the field I judge a QB by is what he does in the intermediate area of the field: 11-19 yards. This is what I loved last year in C.J. Stroud’s Rookie Profile and what certainly translated to the NFL level. Over the last decade, 19 rookie QBs had a sub-60 % completion rate in 7+ starts. That includes players like Andrew Luck (54%), Josh Allen (52.8%), Trevor Lawrence (59.6%), and Justin Fields (58.9%) who would become future fantasy stars. On average, if they kept their starting job, their completion rate rose 4 percent in Year 2. ALL of them increased except for failed top-3 picks Blake Bortles & Zach Wilson. We’re not expecting Daniels to be below 60 percent but he can’t be Zach Wilson. Dear God no!
2. Washington is a dumpster fire– The Washington passing game will need to transform from one of the least efficient groups in the NFL. The Washington Commanders became the 1st NFL team since 2015 to lead the NFL in pass attempts and yet NOT contribute a top-20 RB, a top-24 WR, or a top-12 TE. You can put part of that blame on Sam Howell who put up some of the most empty calories of all time. Among 45 QBs with 600+ pass attempts over the last decade, he ranked near the bottom of QB Rating (43rd), sack rate (45th), and adjusted yards gained per attempt (44th). Terry McLaurin is not a lock to be on this team in 2025, Jahan Dotson could have his 5th-year option declined, Austin Ekeler is old, and Zach Ertz is even older. A year from now, this team might be retooling as it waits to see the returns from its rookie class also consisting of 2nd round TE Ben Sinnott and WR Luke McCaffrey. The biggest question remains to be seen: will the Kingsbury system help or hinder Daniels’ development?
3. Gets injured and eventually loses value (i.e. the Trey Lance route)- While unscripted rushing plays for QBs can be gold for fantasy purposes, young QBs often default to running rather than staying in the pocket against NFL pass rushes. I’m not here to complain about Daniels taking off to run. However, it is a point of caution if you plan on simply copying and pasting college rushing statistics to the NFL. This style can also invite big hits and presents a potential point of contention for whoever becomes his OC and QB coach at the next level. While operating in the midst of chaos is a trait we love seeing from young QBs, you can bet there will be a narrative at play about “taking what is given” and teaching Daniels to avoid contact when he becomes the franchise cornerstone of a billion-dollar organization. Get down, man! Hero ball is fun and all but it doesn’t always lead to a long NFL career.
Dynasty Archetypes for This Scenario
Before you simply scroll down and look at these names and say “No way!“, this article is about exploring similar draft capital and rushing production as stated in the beginning. The comparisons and situations are by no means a 1-to-1. This is a fantasy football comparison. You probably “know ball” better than me so let’s not pretend if you’ve gotten this far in this article (I know most of you just jump around and don’t read everything) that this is a “Jayden Daniels is just like Player X”. It is a bucket to compare and that is it. Ok, now that I’ve slightly ranted and given some qualifiers to these comparisons, here are some low-end outcomes in dynasty. Shield your eyes.
Johnny Manziel– Whoops. I know. It’s weird even typing this name considering where he’s landed in life. Disregard the off-the-field antics for a moment and remember Manziel’s main calling card was ripping apart defenses in college both through the air and on the ground as an out-of-nowhere Heisman winner. Once again, the comparison is orthogonal to Daniels’ performance on the Commanders but for this exercise, it’s a comp worth mentioning. Manziel had the 2nd highest rush share among 1st round QBs in our data set behind only Lamar Jackson. However, the translation to the NFL was downright awful, to say the least, as Manziel started a mere eight games. Total. As a runner, his magic act vanished topping 35 yards only once and the extreme rushing upside was gone. He averaged only 4.6 rush attempts per game, which ended up being a little bonus than a featured part of his game. Manziel was a liability reading coverage and arguably is one of the biggest busts in NFL history. Remember this is a fantasy comparison not an exercise on the value of life choices.
Josh Freeman– Hopefully, you’re old enough to remember this giant. Freeman had a good, not great last season at Kansas State but it was his tools that got everyone excited. He had a rocket arm with size (6’6) and for fantasy was better than you remember finishing as a top-15 QB three years in a row with Tampa Bay. This was highlighted by a 2010 sophomore season where he threw for 25 TDs and only six INTs while adding almost 25 rushing yards per game on the ground. Nevertheless, he flamed out quickly lasting six seasons, and never really learned how to not turn the ball over.
Trey Lance– Ouch. It’s clear the 49ers (and the NFL) are past this guy. This type of outcome implies Daniels is injured multiple years in a row and eventually falls out of favor with both the team and fans. It’s hard envisioning this scenario as Lance came into the league with a baby face and a Division II resume. But I need to point these things out because when considering a range of outcomes, this is the bottom of the barrel.
Conclusion
At the end of the day, we need to consider the range of outcomes in dynasty fantasy football for any player. Daniels is not exempt because of his draft capital (see: Bryce Young) nor his Heisman-winning season (see also Bryce Young). It was a meteoric rise for Daniels winning the 2023 Heisman, re-writing a number of NCAA records, and vaulting up draft boards to No. 2 overall to the Commanders. New OC Kliff Kingsbury has experience with mobile QBs and he will have his work cut out for him with a Washington offense. The headlines for Daniels’ fantasy football outlook is the deep ball accuracy along with the video game rushing numbers. Yes, the rushing is rare and provides a wild boost to his fantasy contributions even in Year 1. If you want to swing away in your startup drafts at QB10 thinking you get some RG3-type lightning in a bottle right from the get-go, we understand. A year from now, we could be talking about a player breaking fantasy football taking the Lamar Jackson route, or flopping as a franchise QB like Justin Fields with his dynasty value decaying.