Fantasy Court: The Case Against Zamir White in 2024 (Fantasy Football)
This article is part of the annual Fantasy Court series. Don’t forget to check out The Case FOR Zamir White by Kurt Mullen for the opposing view.
Opening Statement
Your Honor, ladies and gentlemen of the jury, and all those tuned in across the nation, today I present the case that Zamir White, running back for the Las Vegas Raiders, is being overvalued in fantasy drafts. Yes, I know he has been dubbed ‘Zeus’ because of his powerful, strong physical style. Still, his lack of pass-catching ability and inability to command any significant opportunities before Josh Jacobs went down in Week 15 with a quad injury last season makes me wary of whether he’ll truly return on investment or exceed expectations at his current ADP RB24.
Zamir White is not Josh Jacobs
Yes, I know Josh Jacobs has been traded to the Packers, leaving behind 56% of the carries and 10% of the team’s targets (per the UDK). But are we confident that the Raiders will lean on Zamir White as their workhorse when their actions suggest otherwise? At RB24, the fantasy community seems convinced that White will step up and take over, but there’s little in his history to suggest he can handle that kind of role.
Josh Jacobs was a first-round pick in 2019, drafted to be the lead back, and he’s delivered every season with at least 1,000 rushing yards — even when dealing with injuries. Zamir White was a fourth-round draft pick and has never reached 1,000 yards in a season, even in college. Despite being only 1.6 years apart in age, the gap in their production and proven ability is significant. Mat Irby highlights this low-upside profile and why you should avoid it very nicely in his article Apex Drafting: Avoiding Low-Upside Profiles:
“White is a late-round NFL pick who failed to find opportunities until deep into his second year, and he’s 24, which is older for a back that has yet to break out. He did secure 2.25 receptions per game during that span, which is a decent rate, but he otherwise doesn’t profile as a pass-catcher (and three other RBs on the team seem better at this than White). He lacked efficiency in rushing (-1.4 rushing FPOE) and receiving (-3.4 receiving FPOE) across these four games.”
Opportunity Arose From Injury, Not Talent
Zamir White has never impressed coaches enough to command any snap share or opportunity in the first two years of his career. He never surpassed a 25% snap share before taking over for Jacobs after his injury in Week 14. White’s limited playing time before that injury highlights my concerns for his prospects this season.
| WEEK | OPPONENT | SNAP SHARE | TGTS | REC | TOTAL YDS | TOTAL TDS |
FANTASY PTS
|
| 1 | DEN | 5.5% | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1.7 (#67) |
| 2 | BUF | 15.0% | 0 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 0.2 (#76) |
| 3 | PIT | 1.4% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 (#78) |
| 4 | LAC | 11.0% | 0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 1.5 (#67) |
| 5 | GB | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 (#66) |
| 6 | NE | 6.0% | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 2.9 (#49) |
| 7 | CHI | 21.5% | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 | 5.8 (#36) |
| 8 | DET | 2.2% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 (#80) |
| 9 | NYG | 8.3% | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | -0.2 (#86) |
| 10 | NYJ | 1.6% | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.5 (#63) |
| 11 | MIA | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 (#69) |
| 12 | KC | 3.4% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 (#74) |
| 14 | MIN | 7.4% | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0.8 (#67) |
| 15 | LAC | 70.3% | 4 | 3 | 85 | 1 | 17.5 (#12) |
| 16 | KC | 76.0% | 1 | 0 | 145 | 0 | 14.5 (#16) |
| 17 | IND | 57.3% | 6 | 5 | 106 | 0 | 15.6 (#16) |
| 18 | DEN | 76.2% | 2 | 1 | 121 | 0 | 13.1 (#20) |
What about his college days? You might think White was a dominant force in college, but that’s not the case either. He never commanded a true workhorse role, even at the collegiate level.
| YEAR | GAMES | RUSH ATT | RUSH YDS | TOTAL TDS | REC |
REC YDS
|
| 2019 | 12 | 78 | 408 | 3 | 2 | 20 |
| 2020 | 10 | 144 | 779 | 11 | 6 | 37 |
| 2021 | 15 | 160 | 856 | 11 | 9 | 75 |
His college career didn’t showcase the kind of consistent, high-volume production that would typically signal a player ready to take on a major workload at the professional level. He never took on an RB1 role and shared a backfield with James Cook. This lack of a proven track record in the NFL and college adds to the skepticism about his ability to thrive as a primary back. It’s a red flag that should make us question his potential in the upcoming season.
An Improved Running Back Room
White was the backup to Josh Jacobs last year, but who was behind White? Ameer Abdullah. Brandon Bolden.
These guys are the epitome of “nasty boys” — and let’s be real, they’re not even worth stashing in dynasty leagues. This offseason, the Raiders brought in Alexander Mattison, who was in a similar situation to White last year. After the Vikings moved on from Dalvin Cook, they turned to Mattison, who had never held a full-time role but excelled as part of a committee or when filling in due to injury. Mattison averaged 20.1 fantasy points per game in six fill-in starts for Cook in 2020-21. While he may not have been “the guy” in a lead role, I believe he’ll eat into White’s opportunities as a complementary piece this season. Although Mattison has never lived up to expectations as a lead back, he’s a great relief back who is a strong pass blocker and pass catcher, two things Zamir White hasn’t excelled at.
Next, the Raiders drafted RB Dylan Laube from New Hampshire, one of the top pass-catching backs in this class. He racked up 2,000 rushing yards and 1,000 receiving yards over his last two college seasons. With his NFL-ready skill set, Laube is poised to see opportunities, especially on third downs and passing situations. According to PlayerProfiler, he boasts a 96th-percentile Agility Score, making him a real threat to White’s workload. I don’t see how Laube isn’t incorporated into the game plan with his skillset.
White’s Production Came Against Weak Defenses
Everyone quickly highlights White’s fantasy production down the stretch when he was finally given his opportunity. However, they often overlook who that production came against and the game scripts that inflated those numbers. First, his production came at the tail end of the season, when he was a fresh running back against worn-down defenses that had already played 15 grueling games.
But fatigue wasn’t the only factor — he also faced some of the league’s weaker defenses according to IDP+’s Team Fantasy Points Allowed By Position tool during that stretch, which raises red flags. Let’s break down the only four productive games from Zamir White‘s NFL career thus far so we can truly see the truth behind his RB9 finish.
- Week 15: LAC – 10th most fantasy points allowed to RBs
- Week 16: @KC – Alright, I’ll give him this game
- Week 17: @IND – Fourth most fantasy points allowed to RBs
- Week 18: DEN – Second most fantasy points allowed to RBs
Preseason Prelude
In the latest preseason game, the Raiders rotated all three running backs into the second quarter, and even played White into the third, showing they’re really going with a committee approach. It’s pretty clear they want to use multiple backs rather than just one workhorse.
Zamir White and Alexander Mattison have played the same drives in two preseason games.
Week 1 – three drives:
– White: 45% snaps, 55% attempts
– Mattison: 38%, 27%Week 2 – eight drives:
– White: 35%, 33%
– Mattison: 33%, 42%Hard to be confident in White as clear-cut RB1.
— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) August 19, 2024
In my opinion, expecting White to step into Jacobs’ role and be efficient is a serious stretch and one I don’t feel comfortable taking with other proven backs still on the board at that ADP.
RBs With More Upside at White’s ADP
RB22 – Rhamondre Stevenson: The seventh highest-paid RB in the league, and he’s in the same tier as Zamir White? I can’t.
RB23 – Najee Harris: Najee and Zamir going back to back should be a crime in itself. Come on, guys. What are we doing here? Najee has NEVER had a season under 1,000 yards.
RB25 – Raheem Mostert: 21 TDs last season, on a hyper-efficient offense, with back-to-back 1,000-yard+ seasons.
RB27 – Jonathon Brooks: The Panthers traded up in the second round to secure him — the first running back drafted from last year’s class. Insane talent and excels in every area of the field, including as a pass catcher.
Closing Argument
Your Honor, I would like you to take the time to heed my concerns about Zamir White. The Raiders themselves realize they can’t fully rely on White as a three-down back, especially with Alexander Mattison and Dylan Laube, who are both strong pass catchers, in the mix. White’s “workhorse” role in the backfield is far from guaranteed. His fantasy production could take a big hit if he continues to share carries, as we’ve seen in the preseason. With limited pass-catching upside and no draft capital backing him up, he’s a player I’d avoid at his current ADP, and you should too. A mere mortal, if you ask me. I rest my case.
Comments
Incorrect and as the season goes on, it will bear that out. The Raiders are known for running one RB into the ground. Mattison will get touches of course but White will be the main guy. However, keep drafting Najee Harris and Stevenson over White if you’re in any of my leagues.
Redirect your honor.
Another point you have that I forgot to add was you argue for Najee Harris. Who is the OC for Najee Harris now? The same guy that didn’t utilize Bijan Robinson now, or really any good weapon they had anywhere. The guy that decided to run Tyler Algier with nearly the same volume. Arthur fricken Smith! So you want to draft Najee Harris over Zamir White?!?! Really? You were arguing a split backfield against Zamir White… Really…. So you think there won’t be a split backfield with Najee Harris and Jalen fricken Warren?! With the OC that splits carries among backs more than any OC in the entire NFL. Yeah, let’s do that…. Objection your honor, leading the witness… With poor suggestions. Not to mention their offense is likely to be terrible with Wilson or Fields and a lack of WR depth.
And Rhamondre Stevenson? Uh…. First off they’re starting a rookie QB with a new head coach. Probably won’t be down at the goal line a lot this year. Second, they picked up this guy named Antonio Gibson. Maybe you hear of him? The guy that catches balls out of the backfield better than any other. The guy that use to be a WR. The guy who’s efficiency metrics were through the roof last year, who’s still young. Yeah, I’m sure Stevenson isn’t going to share carries with Gibson. Look at the head coach. Jerod Mayo. Protege of Bill Belichick. Name me one RB in all of Belichick’s long career where he had a top 10 fantasy RB? Or even a single RB who was their Bellcow? I’ll be waiting for quite some time. You just argued AGAINST Zamir White because of a shared backfield and now you’re suggesting two of the most likely guys to have a shared backfield in all the NFL?? Yeah, I just can’t.
I also didn’t mention the fact the Raiders have upgraded their offensive line considerably. They have a very good OL. Which, for RBs, is the best thing they can ever have. You can take a below average guy and put him with a great OL and he’ll be amazing. The coaching staff of the Raiders have said that Zamir White is pound for pound the strongest guy on the team.
Joe Mixon was available. Aaron Jones. Saquan Barkley, Derrick Henry. They let Josh Jacobs go. If they were concerned at RB, why didn’t they go out there and get one of those guys and settle for a never-will-be and a 7th round rookie. And are you really judging what’s going to happen during the season based of the preseason? The coaches evaluate talent there and warm there guys up, that’s all. My guess is, they were just running a vanilla offense and letting Zamir White get a few to warm up for the season. They didn’t tell him, “okay Zamir, we really need you to break one for us so we can win this ultra important preseason game…”
Court adjourned.
Objection, your honor!!
Nice write up but it’s completely misguided. First of all speaking of draft capital of Zamir White as a fourth round pick, do you know who was a seventh round pick and is currently being drafted between the bottom of round 1 and end of round 2? Isiah Pacheco. Yep, last years RB11 finisher, a 7th round NFL draft pick, is now a stud fantasy RB. So to point out that Zamir White is a fourth round pick, who played with another guy in James Cook, another top drafted RB currently, and suggest that because he never eclipsed 1,000 yards playing with one of the top drafted RBs, for the sake of argument of him not being worth his measly RB21-26 draft capital is a bit absurd. The fact of the matter is, there were major RBs available on the market to go and get, and the Raiders chose not to do that. Saquan Barkley was one of them, and we can’t argue cap space because the Raiders had a ton of it. So all they did was go out and get a guy who was horribly inefficient as a RB his whole NFL career, a guy that never threatened Dalvin Cook or anyone else for RB touches. Alexander Mattison was given his shot to be a starter for nearly an entire year and he crapped the bed. He was basically replaced at the very end of last season because he was doing so poorly. While I think they will spell Zamir White, I don’t think they go into the season grabbing a half cocked RB from the Vikings with the expectation that he’s going to be the starting RB or he’s going to get a significant share of carries. Furthermore, Dylan Laube was a 7th round draft pick. 208 to be exact. I see you conveniently left that detail out since it didn’t support your argument. Do you think a guy that was picked 16 spots before the entire draft ended is going to come in and get significant volume right away??? Objection your honor, move to strike!! That is absolutely ludicrous! Even Pacheco stayed as a backup for a year or two before he got significant volume. The players have to learn the offense. That takes time. Do you know who already knows the offense??? Zamir White. In fact, he’s the ONLY RB that knows the offense given the fact he’s played with Pierce now all this time. One guy is a 7th round rookie and the other guy is a has-been and never-will-be who had his shot as a starter and failed miserably. Clearly the coaching staff believes in White, or they would’ve went out and gotten “significant” help at RB. They didn’t. Now White has the Josh Jacobs roll in an offense that is bound to run the ball a ton with play action, considering the facts that Antonio Pierce is a defense oriented coach who doesn’t have a standout QB. They’ll run the ball, play good defense and win close games. Your comrades, in the footballers, suggest not taking bad advice. I think it is bad advice to miss out on a player who is likely to be the bell cow for their team, who is being drafted at a significant discount middle of round 5 to bottom of round 6 because people might think he is going to lose boatloads of carries to two new comers, one who has proven he can’t be the guy, who’s been in the league for several years already, and another who is a rookie who got drafted near the very end of the draft. Being drafted in the 7th round tells me, acquiring deep RB talent was not a high priority for the Raiders, which tells you what? They are more than comfortable with what they have.
The defense rests.