Fantasy Court: The Case for Zamir White in 2024 (Fantasy Football)
This article is part of the annual Fantasy Court series. Be sure to check out The Case AGAINST Zamir White by Brittney Foxworth for the opposing view.
Opening Statement
Dearest members of the fantasy court, it has been two years since I took up the flag for a player in the fantasy football realm, but honor demands my return to defend the case for Raiders RB Zamir White. By the end of this article, you’ll find a clear case not only for this player’s relevance in fantasy football this season but as an absolute need to be included on your championship-winning roster!
2023 Recap
To be quite fair to White, he wasn’t on anyone’s radar to start 2023 as the clear backup to Josh Jacobs in Las Vegas. White was scarcely used by the Raiders in his rookie season in 2022 and Jacobs was coming off a season where he led the league in rushing, so the only practical place for him on anyone’s radar was as an insurance policy if something were to happen to Jacobs. As fate would have it, Jacobs did go down late in the season, opening the door for White to take the lead role in the backfield.
While the Raiders’ offense wasn’t anything to get excited about in 2023, White’s production, whenever he took over the starting role, was a stark difference from what Josh Jacobs was able to produce as the main RB. White made the most of his opportunity as the starter in Silver and Black and posted four straight top-24 finishes for the Raiders while averaging 24 opportunities (carries + targets) per game. Las Vegas had a 100+ yard rusher in just four games last season and two of them came from White during the last month of the season when he took over lead back duties.
Backfield Competition
Despite White’s strong finish to 2023, there was plenty of necessary skepticism heading into the offseason regarding his fantasy value, mainly due to Josh Jacobs’ impending free agency. Those questions were quickly answered after Jacobs signed with Green Bay on the first day of free agency, opening the door for White as the new RB1 for the Raiders.
Jacobs’ departure opened the door for the Raiders to go and spend money on the open market to find his replacement, but newly hired Head Coach Antonio Pierce and General Manager Tom Telseco opted to not chase any of the bigger RB names on the market. Instead, the only free agent RB they added was Alexander Mattison on a one-year deal. The fantasy world bought into Alexander Mattison being a top 20 back last offseason only for him to log inefficient weeks as a starting RB before finally losing the starting role for the Vikings by the end of the season. Mattison may have a chance to take some carries away from White, but the contract says he’s more of a depth piece for this roster.
When the NFL draft came around, the Raiders were a popular team being linked to draft an RB in the first three rounds. While Las Vegas did eventually take an RB, they didn’t do so until the sixth round with Dylan Laube. Laube has a nice production profile from New Hampshire, especially in the passing game, but he should profile as more of a Danny Woodhead type player in the NFL.
All summer there were plenty of opportunities for the Raiders to supplant White’s role as their presumed starting RB, but they have declined at nearly every turn. White should be considered the main RB option for a head coach in Pierce who in his nine career games in the position has given one RB 88.4% of the carries.
Which leads to my next point.
Raiders Will Establish It
To put it plainly, the Raiders are going to run the heck out of the ball.
After Pierce was named head coach he brought in new Offensive Coordinator Luke Getsy from Chicago. Over the last two seasons, Getsy’s offenses in Chicago ran the ball over 1,000 times, good enough for the second-most rushes in the league in both 2022 and 2023. To be fair, 284 of those attempts came from QB Justin Fields, so that number isn’t all RB work. Based on the way the Raiders functioned under Pierce down the stretch, running the ball nearly 26 times per game, there should be plenty of rushing work coming down the pipe in 2024.
Not only will the coaching staff want to run the ball, but based on the starting QB options for Las Vegas – Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell – the team will likely lean on their elite defense to win games. Without an elite, or even above-average, QB option under center, the Raiders will need to lean into their running game even more which only helps White’s case.
Advanced Rushing Metrics
White was great for both fantasy and actual football in his limited action as a starter in 2023, but some of the advanced numbers can shed a bit more light on how good he really was. There were 470 rushing TDs scored by RBs last season on 14,602 carries, which means on average RBs were scoring a TD every 31 carries. White had a limited workload to base his production on, but his 104 carries suggest that he should have finished with at least three TDs instead of just the one he scored in Week 12. Part of the reason for the lower-than-expected TD rate is that in his four games as a starter, White only saw seven carries inside the 10-yard line. With a full season of work, White is due for some positive TD regression, especially with an improved offensive line for the Raiders this season.
While White is viewed as more of a power RB, his stint as a starter last season showed he’s got the ability to create explosive plays at a decently high rate. White only saw 104 carries on the season but 25.3% of his yardage came from runs of 15+ yards. That’s a higher rate than Bijan Robinson, Jonathan Taylor, and Kyren Williams had in 2023. White isn’t just running through huge gaps in the offensive line though, he’s creating yardage after contact on a regular basis. On the season, 74% of White’s yardage came after contact. Among RBs with at least 400 rushing yards last season, that’s the 15th-highest percentage of a player’s yards to come after contact. So we have a back who is not only a bruising back, but one who has the ability to gain yards in bigger chunks and gains plenty of yards after contact!
Receiving Work
Easily the most common argument I’ve seen against investing in White this season is that he doesn’t catch the ball enough. To be completely fair, White didn’t do a ton in the passing game throughout his days at Georgia where he only tallied 17 total receptions in three seasons. However, the fantasy community doesn’t have a problem with a guy like Kenneth Walker III who only caught 19 passes in his collegiate days but caught more passes than that in both of his first two seasons in the NFL. White very likely could follow that same path!
| Player | Receptions | Routes Run |
Yards Per Route Run
|
| Bijan Robinson | 58 | 421 | 1.16 |
| De’Von Achane | 28 | 172 | 1.12 |
| Zamir White | 15 | 90 | 1.09 |
| Joe Mixon | 52 | 373 | 1.01 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 52 | 325 | 0.97 |
| Saquon Barkley | 41 | 306 | 0.92 |
While the sample size is small, in White’s four games as a starter, he saw 13 total targets that turned into nine receptions for 60 yards. That’s a 17-game pace of 38 receptions – more than Josh Jacobs and Brian Robinson Jr. finished with in 2023. Not only did White see targets come his way, but he was decently effective when he was sent out on passing routes. White finished the season averaging 1.09 yards per route run, just below Bijan Robinson (1.16) and De’Von Achane (1.12) but ahead of Joe Mixon, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Saquon Barkley.
Conclusion
Any case being made against Zamir Alexza White is rooted in misinformation and bias against a big-bodied back. The fantasy world has only been able to see White in a few games, so it’s understandable that they’re skeptical about his long-term ability to contribute to a fantasy roster, but we aren’t asking for a long-term fantasy option year over year here. The opportunity for a one-year wonder is within the grasp of White this season!
Who better to bet on being a workhorse RB than an RB whose offseason workouts literally include working horses? White put on six pounds of muscle over the summer to help prepare himself to carry the load for the Raiders this season.
Raiders RB Zamir White has put on six more pounds of muscle to handle the workload.
“I wake up, go for a jog, feed the horses, lift weights, ride about five horses, eat, rest, feed the horses again, run and do my fieldwork and then feed the horses again.”https://t.co/9RwIa32Mnm pic.twitter.com/4New1MJaOY— Vic Tafur (@VicTafur) August 1, 2024
The biggest reason to buy into White this year is his ADP! White is currently being drafted in the seventh round, currently behind Najee Harris, who will be sharing a backfield, and just ahead of Nick Chubb who won’t even start the season healthy enough to play. There are very few arguments that fantasy managers will be able to make for the players going where White is being drafted to finish the year as a top-20 RB with the potential for more! Put your trust in Zamir White to be your RB2 with RB1 upside!