Dynasty WR Thresholds That Matter (Fantasy Football)
In dynasty, you have to make a call a year or two in: are you carrying false hope?
With wide receivers, it can become even tougher to truly gauge where you are at with young players with a relatively small sample size. Young WRs hold so much value in dynasty leagues so trading for one even if you haven’t seen them breakout is always tempting.
For example, if you are still holding onto Jameson Williams, you might be clinging to the recent promises of head coach Dan Campbell, ” [Williams] is going to push to be a full-time starter and that’s what we’re looking for. Everybody grows at a different rate. Maybe it’s taken him a little bit longer, but he is developing and growing. The kid has come on. We got high hopes for him and see him continuing to grow,” Campbell said recently before the NFL Scouting Combine.
The Lions traded up to take the Alabama superstar 12th overall and yet we still haven’t seen him fully involved on an NFL field. I jokingly posted a thread of every single quote I could find from OC Ben Johnson essentially saying he wasn’t quite ready. Beyond quotes, what can you go off of to assess WRs like Williams and their performance on the football field?
In this article, I will identify a few thresholds for WRs finishing Year 1 & Year 2 in the NFL and compare them to their peers in the 2024 Dynasty Pass.
Metrics That Matter
In dynasty, there are a number of factors you might be weighing when it comes to your young WRs:
- What was their draft capital?
- What did I personally invest in rookie drafts? (this can be a bit blinding)
- How did they fit in their NFL offense?
- How did they stack up against their rookie counterparts?
- What did my eyeballs tell me?
All of those questions are valid but sometimes you need some cold-hard data to shake you out of your stupor. If you’re still searching for an oasis in the middle of the desert, but you’re standing in the middle of a cornfield in nowhere Nebraska, chances are you’re suffering from a deeper problem. “Where are we at?” is a valid question that has multiple layers to it in dynasty leagues.
It can be hard to zero in on a couple of metrics and proclaim, “These are the ones worth paying attention to!” There are deeper studies out there (highly recommend Ryan Heath’s chart on stable & predictive stats) but for the sake of this article, we will focus on routes-based data.
We talk all the time about how targets are earned; they show skill. Routes give context because they mix in opportunity (or lack thereof) for a WR. It is worth noting that route data is not widely available and is often found behind paywalls. Why? It is data and sites like PFF or FantasyPoints have put in a ton of time and hard work collecting this data. Do them a favor and subscribe or at least acknowledge that tracking every single route in every single game in the NFL takes time and a desire for accuracy. In this study, I will mostly use the route data available from Pro Football Focus.
Yards per Route Run (YPRR) gives a well-rounded figure to work with as we are able to simply divide the total receiving yards by the number of routes they run on the field. It is less prone to outlier skewed stats (Yards per Target, Yards per Reception) but it’s not perfect. YPRR needs roughly 11 games or 180+ routes to start to stabilize for WRs.
I do need to caution that YPRR inherently is biased as Underdog’s Hayden Winks noted. Some run-heavy teams (like the Falcons or Ravens) routinely trot out two or fewer WRs while teams like the Rams use 11-personnel like it’s going out of style. You can see how certain players are boosted based on formations like Drake London. Keep in mind the sample sizes for this as well as London ran a TOTAL of 60 routes with 3+ WRs on the field, also known as 438 fewer than CeeDee Lamb. (Thanks Arthur Smith!)
Overall, YPRR is heavily influenced by the number of WRs on the field and there are attempts to produce expected YPRR and adjusted YPRR figures as Tej Seth of SumerSports details. For the sake of this study, we will begin with the simple YPRR metric to compare past draft classes.
Targets per Route Run (TPRR) is another metric we discuss frequently on the Fantasy Footballers podcast. It measures how involved a player is and weeds out cardio kings such as Marquez Valdes-Scantling who might be the best-conditioned players on the field but shots in the dark for fantasy. TPRR closely follows target share but it gives us an even deeper look at team opportunity. When this player is running route, how often does their QB look their way? You might’ve seen the highlight of a long 60-yard TD the week before but when you peel back the curtain, MVS might’ve been targeted just 10% of the time, an atrociously low figure. I wrote a primer on this stat back in 2021 and one of our writers (AJ Passman) does a weekly article in-season.
Anything sub 20 percent is not optimal when you compare it to other WRs. At its core, TPRR is a measure of efficiency; it tells us a player’s ability either to get open or be a part of the offensive scheme. We say it often: earning targets is a skill. And that skill, expressed as TPRR, has a strong correlation with fantasy relevance. Since 2006, 92% of receivers who finished as a WR2 or better (top 24) had a TPRR of at least 20%.
You also have to ask questions to add context around TPRR:
- Is there competition for targets? Many offenses such as Dallas have multiple high-end targets. This is why players like Brandin Cooks can end up among the league leaders in routes run but rank so low in TPRR in target efficiency at 15 percent. In other words, other guys were commanding targets (Ceedee Lamb) and Cooks’ percentage plummeted.
- Is the efficiency off the charts? Efficiency is fun when it’s hitting in your favor every week but eventually, the lack of targets turn into 2-for-22 weeks.
- What type of routes are they running? The nine routes from MVS and Justin Watson are going to draw very few targets.
All of that is to say that for young WRs, we expect there to be a slow burn. However, we also expect that to turn into a blazing inferno eventually…
History Tells a Story
One of my favorite parts of my job (and fantasy football in general) is that we have a wealth of information to dig into. The truth of a player’s outlook (or at least some of the truth) can be in the data if we give ourselves time to parse through it and find meaning. We don’t create meaning or use data to confirm what we think it should say. Rather, years of routes-based WR data can give us some thresholds in dynasty to work from.
What was the process and methodology?
We looked back over the last decade at WRs drafted in the 1st three rounds of the NFL Draft.
This data set from 2014 to the present includes 137 total WRs with route, target, and yardage totals from Pro Football Focus. We focused on their Year 1 and Year 2 results as the “thresholds” to consider. These thresholds are NOT saying “They are below this mark, they are completely done” but WRs in this range are waving a red flag you cannot ignore for their career arc.
- We need thresholds to measure. We need a bar to compare others. Think of this as a purposeful obstacle we’re placing in front of WRs. For some, it’s almost laughable that we need any measurement to contain the greatness of Justin Jefferson. However, these routes-based thresholds also elevate how much more valuable he is compared to the field (and that he is a true alien). Others might stumble and bumble over them causing you to wake from your sleeping stupor of thinking things are going according to plan. Thresholds like the ones I’m presenting are not perfect by any means. They are a good starting place for conversation.
- We need to weigh our past hopes with the present reality. It is so easy to experience #takelock with any prospect but instead of burying our heads in the sand, a year or two gives us data to work with and some semblance of reality.
- We need to be active rather than passive. You might be saying to yourself “I’m not ready to make up my mind”. Not making a decision is a decision in itself especially in a game environment such as fantasy football. The NFL is not held within a vacuum and your opponents in your dynasty leagues are not without their opinions. Don’t make a knee-jerk reaction but also recognize that nothing remains static in a league with turnover at the coaching, management, and player levels.
WR Thresholds: After Year 1
After looking at the 137 WRs in this set, here are the average marks for both Targets per Route Run and Yards per Route Run after Year 1.
At first glance, these could look relatively pedestrian. Keep in mind these are rookies still learning some of the nuances of the game and how to best work in an NFL system. Some liken it to a slow burn throughout the year but these thresholds are the average of players taken in these rounds, not the tip-top guys. Hitting 21% TPRR is an impressive feat for any player in the NFL as only total of 36 WRs accomplished this in 2023. Of that group, only 39% were 1st round NFL WRs. As always, we need to context with these types of stats but this is a starting place for evaluating rookies.
Let’s start by assessing the 2023 Class of WRs and organize them into a few tiers (or “buckets”) based on their other counterparts.
Head of the 2023 Class
Puka Nacua– OK, so technically Puka isn’t on this list since we looked at WRs taken in Rounds 1-3 but I had to mention him. He rewrote the record book with the most receptions, receiving yards, and 1st downs ever for a rookie. He broke Randy Moss & Ja’Marr Chase’s rookie fantasy records with seven top-12 finishes (most ever for a rookie) and nine games of 15+ fantasy points (also the most ever). In case you wanted to know his per-route numbers, his 2.59 YPRR is the 4th best for a rookie (min. 50 targets) over the last decade behind only Odell Beckham Jr., A.J. Brown, and Justin Jefferson. Not bad for a 5th round dude. We have him ranked as a top-5 dynasty WR.
Rashee Rice– He slowly became the Chiefs’ primary receiving option. From Week 12 on, he was the WR9 averaging 14.9 fantasy points per game, 9.3 targets, 7.2 receptions, and 86 receiving yards per game. His 2.91 YPRR versus zone coverage tied for the 4th highest in the NFL. He’s locked in as a solid WR2 in dynasty.
Tank Dell– We’re pretty bullish on Tank moving forward with Jason currently putting him at WR15 in our startup rankings. From Weeks 9-12, he was the WR3 averaging 20.5 fantasy points per game, 10.8 targets, 92.3 receiving yards per game, and 1.3 TDs. 72% of his receptions went for a 1st down or TD, 7th best among ALL WRs with 75+ targets. For such a small WR (165 lbs.), he was not utilized that way with 60+ % of his targets ending up 10+ yards downfield and 70% out wide. His 2.22 YPRR is a top-10 number for rookies and his rookie year is being used as a template for string-bean guys like Xavier Worthy in 2024.
Good* But With an Asterisk
Jordan Addison– He excelled down the field and intermediate area with 37% of his targets in the 10-19 yard mark. This was despite four different Minnesota QBs throwing him the ball. He’s one of five rookie WRs with 10+ receiving TDs since 2014. However, the biggest caution is his TPRR numbers being just average (17.8%). It’s not alarming but with Justin Jefferson on board, it’s tough seeing a ceiling outcome apart from another double-digit TD season. Addison would be someone worth shopping around right just to see what temperate the rest of your league has on him.
Zay Flowers– Flowers hit above 20 % in TPRR but if you focus only on the games where Mark Andrews was on the field, that number dipped. He did see the most 20+ air-yard targets among rookies (21) so hopefully he continues to see shots downfield moving forward. It was a solid rookie year and he looked like a playmaker with the ball in his hands. However, before you crown him a WR1, know that his YPRR numbers are in the 60th percentile for rookie WRs. It’s good but keep in mind that 1st round rookie WRs only improve their YPRR slightly (+0.02) moving into Year 2. In other words, Year 1 is usually a good indicator of what tier they belong in.
Zay Flowers Splits w/ Mark Andrews pic.twitter.com/HRPHNtjhTJ
— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) January 17, 2024
Jayden Reed– From Week 10 on, he was the WR9 averaging 14.8 fantasy points per game, 5+ receptions, and 70 total yards in that span He was used as a “Deebo-lite”/efficiency-monster ranking 6th among ALL WRs in PPR points per touch (2.90). A TD on 13% of his touches/every 7.5 touches is a bit of a red flag. Efficiency is a double-edged sword because you can say “This player is different” or “That’s just who they are”. History would say finding the end-zone this frequently in an offense where he was deemphasized in the NFC playoffs makes him a likely candidate to be elevated too quickly in dynasty circles.
A Little Worried
Jaxon Smith-Njigba– It was an incredibly slow start to the year as JSN averaged just 52% snaps for 1st month of the season until Week 5 bye. The 1st WR drafted and the likely 1.02 in rookie drafts likely disappointed managers in Year 1. His usage was low aDOT stuff for a lot of the first two months. His 29 receptions behind the line of scrimmage were the most among rookies. Only Rondale Moore (36 in 2021) has more in the PFF era. His per-toute numbers are not exactly inspiring. But… I looked back over the last decade at 31 Rookie WRs who saw 90+ targets like JSN… What did they do in their sophomore year? 68% increased their target share, the average was 116 targets, and the average YPRR in sophomore year was 2.01. In Underdog, he is going as the WR36 and we have him ranked as WR19 in startup rankings. Hold on and don’t waver!
Since 2014, every 1st round rookie WR with 50+ receptions had an ADP of WR30 or higher as a sophomore. pic.twitter.com/KnxOUQyHqO
— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) January 17, 2024
Marvin Mims Jr.– Can someone/Broncos fans explain to me what the plan (lack of plan) was for Mims? Among WRs with 30+ targets on the season, this “screen or nine-route” usage is the most extreme I’ve seen for a player. The swings from the lowest value target to the highest value for fantasy are massive based on the design of the plays. His route numbers are skewed when you consider his big plays including a 60-yard TD versus Washington. Take that one play away (which is not good practice) and his YPRR drops from 1.54 to 1.30. With only 32 targets to work from, he is in the TBD category. If you took him in the second round of your rookie drafts, he is a hold in hopes Denver gives this guy some run in 2024.
Josh Downs– I’ve written about this multiple times but Downs is essentially… Jamison Crowder. Is that too easy of a comp? Downs joined Crowder as 1 of 32 rookie WRs with 50+ % of targets in the slot over the last decade.
Downs’ YPRR (1.60) was better than Crowder’s (1.32) but it all comes down to TDs. If Downs has a spike year (see Crowder in Year 2 with seven receiving TDs), he can be a useable FLEX for fantasy. Regardless, Downs is a PPR option only with his low aDOT targets and the fact only 30% of Colts’ targets went to the slot, 25th in NFL. Anthony Richardson likely will never be on the side of heavy volume so apart from Pitty City seeing 25+ % of the targets, Downs will likely top out at the 20% he saw as a rookie.
Multiple Red Flags
Quentin Johnston– It’s not pretty folks especially if you invested the 1.05 on Quge. Let’s give some historical context to paint the picture. Among 42 1st Round Rookie WRs since 2014, he ranked 39th in TPRR (13.7%), 38th in YPRR (0.88), and 33rd in target share (10.9%). The YAC plays didn’t happen like college (4.0 YAC/rec vs. 8.9 at TCU) and despite 15 targets of 20+ yards, he ended up catching only two of them. His 0.72 YPRR vs zone coverage was horrifically bad and the worst among 1st round WRs. Is there hope? A new coaching regime in Los Angeles does add another element of mystery but Greg Roman’s systems aren’t exactly known for supporting multiple high-end WRs for fantasy. You don’t want to give him away for free but holding onto QJ is most likely a lost cause. If you just want to stare at him on your bench, I get it if pain is the type of thing you buy into. Only trade for QJ if you are in rebuilding mode and you have late-round picks to burn.
💀1st Round Rookie WRs with ZERO top-24 finishes since 2014 💀 pic.twitter.com/7FeIRUeYnY
— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) January 16, 2024
Jonathan Mingo– We discussed him on the Dynasty Podcast in passing recently but Mingo surprisingly was taken 39th overall by the Panthers despite a suspect college resume, especially against zone coverages. Welp, he followed suit in the NFL posting a 0.93 YPRR versus zone and a barf-worthy 0.78 overall YPRR. How bad is that? It’s the worst over the last decade for any Round 1-3 WR with 75+ targets. It was a horrendous Carolina team that fired their coach early on and ranked dead last in points per game and total yards. Since 2000, Carolina’s 4.7 team yards per pass attempt ranked 763rd of 766 teams. Woof. Does anybody come back from being this bad? As you’ll see in the next section when I detail 2nd-year players, it is not just a rarity… it simply doesn’t happen.
Jalin Hyatt– Remember all those big plays at Tennessee? Hyatt not only did not catch a single TD on the year but he struggled to get on the field consistently. He averaged just 48% snaps and 21.5 routes per game until their Week 13 bye. A whopping 45% of his targets were 20+ yards down the field but if you focus on the other 3 levels of the field, he accounted for just 139 total receiving yards. Not good.
I Just Can’t See It
WR Thresholds: After Two Years
It was all fun and games walking through rookies but two years into the NFL, we have an even better idea of who is #goodatthegame and who will probably just be a footnote for fantasy. I went through and tracked every WR selected in Rounds 1-3 of the NFL Draft and identified some of the thresholds for both Targets per Route Run (TPRR) and Yards per Route Run (YPRR).
Going back over the last decade, it was eye-popping to see the WRs who essentially bombed out at the NFL level and after two years, the “writing was on the wall” faster than you can say mene mene tekel upharsin. Oh, the carnage and careers burned up in flames! However, (to give one more Daniel reference), there was another man in the midst of the fire that stood the test of time despite arguably one of the worst starts to an NFL (and fantasy) career. I wrote a long thread on Davante Adams on X if you want a deeper dive into a player who essentially could’ve been left for dead for fantasy purposes.
This is a good reminder that these thresholds are generally speaking good guides but they are not gospel. Players change, situations change, offensive systems develop, and WRs can emerge but guys like Davante Adams are the outlier.
Sorting Out the 2022 Class
While we were a bit kinder to the rookies, at this point two years in, you need to start making decisions in dynasty. I’ve grouped these 17 WRs into these tiers based on their routes-based numbers. This is not the ONLY way to organize these WRs as we can obviously use a number of metrics and provide more context for each. Let these thresholds be a guide, not gospel.
Head of the Class
Garrett Wilson– The volume is unparalleled and while efficiency numbers are off, we can place most blame at the feet of Zach Wilson and the other Jabronies throwing him the ball. You should have No worries here moving forward as Wilson is among the alphas compared to the last decade of data. You probably already knew that but in dynasty, we often crown these players before they achieve it in real fantasy production. Wilson is ranked as a top-5 dynasty WR for the second year in a row for us.
Garrett Wilson: MOST Targets Through 2 Years
Garrett Wilson also: 66th in Yards per Target (6.8) among 72 WRs with 200+ Targets Through 2 Years pic.twitter.com/ZsnXrfoVo2
— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) January 4, 2024
Chris Olave– Wilson’s Ohio State teammate feels in the same breath as “wait I thought I would get more fantasy points”? Olave led the NFL in contested catches on deep targets but it felt like Derek Carr and him were always never quite on the same page. Since 2010, he’s 1 of 21 WRs with 2000+ Rec Yards in their 1st two years and only DeAndre Hopkins (8) and Garrett Wilson (7) had fewer rec TDs (9)! Based on yardage expectation alone, Olave should have 3-4 more TDs. He remains in the elite of the elite tier of WRs with 2.20+ YPRR through two years.
Drake London– The final name in this tier is London who was criminally underutilized by Arthur Smith last year. Banished to running in 2WR sets only, London has a number of true breakout signs glaring in your eyes for Year 3. New OC Zac Robinson should bring more 3WR sets over from the Sean McVay system. Over the last two seasons, London posted a solid a 2.47 YPRR number, albeit in only 230 combined routes. His 24.3% TPRR through two seasons ranks 10th best over the last decade. He might be undervalued based on managers assessing only what they’ve seen under Arthur Smith (six total TDs in two years & putrid QB play (Ridder) is leaving a stain) and not focusing on what London’s accomplishments could lead to. In other words, London’s metrics are top tier and they signal a higher ceiling in 2024 and beyond as he still has yet to turn 23 years old. His 141 receptions rank 12th all-time for a WR before turning 23.
Volatile But Fantasy Relevant
Christian Watson– The big plays have been there for Watson as evidenced by 12 receiving TDs on just 69 total receptions. Almost 29% of his targets over the last two years were 20+ yards down field making him a volatile player in general. While Jordan Love‘s progression certainly is encouraging, the emergence of other valuable receiving options on the team (Jayden Reed & Dontayvion Wicks) makes this feel like a team with too many mouths to feed. While that narrative might be a bit misguided, Watson’s valuation in dynasty circles as WR35 makes him still a worthy FLEX if your lineup wants to shoot for the moon. He’s not yet 25 but it’s hard to envision him as a true alpha commanding 115+ targets in an offense.
George Pickens– You might be surprised to see Pickens in this tier but there were improvements across the board in Year 2. The highs are high and the lows are… well the lows were full-on goose eggs for fantasy. The routes-based numbers look much better including his YPRR versus zone coverage.
| Year | Player | G | RTs | Tgts | Rec | Rec Yards | Rec TDs | TPRR | YPRR | Man YPRR | Zone YPRR |
| 2022 | George Pickens | 17 | 580 | 84 | 52 | 801 | 4 | 14.5% | 1.38 | 1.60 | 1.23 |
| 2023 | George Pickens | 17 | 540 | 104 | 63 | 1140 | 5 | 19.3% | 2.11 | 3.43 | 2.12 |
Pickens still is tracking as someone who can provide a spike week (or year) but the new offensive system with Arthur Smith does provide some worries. Pickens ran just 96 routes with two or fewer WRs on the field but did post an impressive 42% air-yard share and 3.32 YPRR in those sets. It might be frustrating for fantasy with Kenny Pickett but Pickens is trending towards getting a second contract in the NFL and a multi-year deal.
Keep the Light On
Jameson Williams– Oh brother. We talked about Williams at the beginning of a recent episode and the Footballers had a lengthy discussion on his outlook. He turns 23 at the end of March and in just 18 total regular season games, he has two top-24 fantasy games. Ok he barely got there with WR24 and WR23. The other 16 games? He averaged 3.7 fantasy points per game. If Williams truly does become a “full-time” player seeing 30+ routes per game, you’d hope to see more consistent splash plays. This team was best in 11-personnel as Williams was not trusted in 2WR sets with a laughable 27 total receiving yards in 2023. His TD in the NFC Title game is the last image from this season so there is some recent momentum you might be clinging to if you are a Jameson believer. Nico Collins actually hit basically the same YPRR number (1.43) through two seasons and in Year 3, he went through the roof. Use that as a fun anecdote and not an A + B = C type of conclusion.
Treylon Burks– Man, it feels like Burks is barely in the public consciousness of fantasy football. Despite being taken 18th overall in the 2022 draft, the production is minimal with just one total receiving TD on 83 total targets in two years. You can blame the Titans for holding onto hopes of Ryan Tannehill still having a pulse, or poke fun at the fact they thought Malik Willis could be an NFL QB, or heck even point the finger at Will Levis in all his “Bananarama” glory. His 2023 campaign felt stunted with the addition of DeAndre Hopkins late but Burks posted some truly underwhelming numbers including being targeted on just 11% of his routes and an atrocious 0.68 YPRR versus zone coverage. That TPRR number is close to a death knell as the only WR to post a top-24 season with a TPRR under 14% was Mike Williams. What is Burks? He’s a hold in hopes this new offensive scheme with Brian Callahan opens the door to his potential. Apart from injuries around him, it’s hard envisioning Burks morphing into a target monster so you’re placing your bets on his efficiency numbers spiking, something we thought we saw in college at Arkansas.
Wan’Dale Robinson– This is another player who you might feel has never fully been on the field long enough for us to judge who he is. He dominated for Kentucky in college targeted on an obscene 37% of his routes in his final year with Will Levis slinging him the rock. The Giants took him 43rd overall to step right into a near every down slot role. In six games as a rookie, he was targeted on an impressive 23% of his routes making him an intriguing slot option. His season ended abruptly with a torn ACL and while his recovery was faster than anticipated, it took him until Week 4 to make a dent in the NYG rotation. The QB carousel between Daniel Jones, Tommy DeVito, and Tyrod Taylor did not help his development but if you zero in after the Giants Week 13 bye, Robinson posted a healthy 20% TPRR and a passable 1.63 YPRR. It’s not glorious but for a slot WR in PPR leagues, you could do worse.
CeeDee with high praise for Wan'Dale Robinson 🔥 pic.twitter.com/yXvtajnyz1
— PFF Fantasy & Betting (@PFF_Fantasy) February 15, 2024
Hanging On For Dear Life
Jahan Dotson– This was painful to put here but honestly, as much as I want to put him somewhere else, Dotson belongs in a tier to himself. The 1st round draft capital and hope coming into 2023 still carries wounds, especially for dynasty managers like myself who wanted him to take the next step. Through Year 1, Dotson overachieved in the TD department (7) but his underlying metrics (16.2 % TPRR, 1.40 YPRR) weren’t screaming breakout. However, if you focused on the final five games of the season, his numbers (20.3%, 2.18) led the team and ran ahead of teammate Terry McLaurin. How did 2023 go you ask? Welp, Dotson got in his cardio running a whopping 635 routes, 5th most in the NFL and … wait for it… the 4th most for a sophomore WR over the last decade. He was out on the field and if you tried starting Dotson at any point during the year, you likely were lost trying to decipher if there was a rhyme or reason behind his vanishing acts. His 0.82 YPRR is in the bottom 16th percentile of 2nd year WRs and he was equally poor against both man and zone coverage. Wait, then why haven’t we full-on thrown him off the cliff Thanos style like on the planet Vormir? Blame Sam Howell? Take your anger and direct it at Eric Bieniemy? Ok, those aren’t rational thoughts based on the mounting data we have two years in the NFL. He’s slightly above the 1.00 YPRR line I referenced earlier with Davante Adams and the only other name of relevance you can find in this realm is Zay Jones (0.96). With his value so low, trading him away for 50 cents on the dollar makes little sense. Trading for him takes a ton of guts and guile and is not for the faint of heart unless you think they let the No. 2 overall pick (Drake Maye?) rip it in Year 1.
It’s Over Folks
Tyquan Thornton– Someone had to be the final one but after over a decade of ineptitude drafting WRs, Tyquan Thornton might be the crowning achievement. Taken 50th overall, his selection was one of the more puzzling picks in the draft. The slender speedster from Baylor had a less than impressive production profile coming in and it was an up-hill battle just for him to find snaps on the field. His 0.76 in Year 1 was dangerously below our threshold but after Year 2, it’s clear he isn’t an impact NFL WR. His 0.66 YPRR (through two years) is in the 5th percentile on WRs drafted Round 1-3 over the last decade. The only names below him? D’Wayne Eskridge, Cody Latimer, Chad Williams, John Ross, Velus Jones Jr., and Breshad Perriman.
Alec Pierce– Run a nine route brother! Pierce is willing to put in the time and effort to up his cardio. After being targeted on 16.3% of his routes in Year 1, that number dipped to a dangerously low 10.4% in Year 2. For context, among WRs with 30+ targets in 2023, only rookie Jalin Hyatt and Marquez Valdes-Scantling were targeted less frequently on a per-route basis. Anthony Richardson‘s presence certainly makes things a bit more intriguing but at this point in his career, Pierce perfectly fits alongside MVS as a player who can pop up 1-to-2 times a year, mostly when you least expect it.
Skyy Moore– After Kadarius Toney went down in July, Skyy Moore was being pumped up as a sneaky post-hype candidate. Why? Well, beat writers have to write about something and Skyy Moore was literally the only dude in camp. Through two seasons with Patrick Mahomes, he’s totaled just 68 targets and one TD. His per-route numbers aren’t at the bottom of the barrel but if you’ve failed to see meaningful snaps at this point in the KC offense, chances are you are irrelevant. The trust levels for Andy Reid are quite clear when you compare them to snap counts.
John Metchie– The lost rookie year due to his leukemia is a story of perseverance but this 2nd round draft pick was quickly surpassed on the depth chart by 3rd round rookie Tank Dell and journeyman Noah Brown this year. Metchie might’ve been overdrafted (2.44) coming out of Alabama with some red flags about his ability to beat zone in college. He averaged just one reception per game and his 0.92 YPRR puts him in the N’Keal Harry territory of prospects. Despite Dell going down in Week 13, Metchie totaled just 20 receiving yards over the final five games. With Dalton Schultz re-signed along with the one-two punch of Nico Collins and Dell at C.J. Stroud‘s disposal, he is mostly waiting in the wings for snaps.
3rd Round Picks You Forgot Were on an NFL Roster
Comments
probably the best article ive read here by the ballers
Excellent Article! Borg, love all the stats , analysis and subtle wittiness. First time I’ve ever read a fantasy article with not one but two jokes based on the book of Daniel. Well done sir!
Why is Dotson a trade for target in the dynasty pass given this analysis?