The Path to a WR1 Fantasy Football Season: Chris Godwin
Editor’s Note: This profile is part of our annual Path to a Fantasy WR1 series. For our methodology and an outline of the process, make sure you read the 2024 Path to WR1 Series Primer.
When it comes to fantasy football player takes, I like to think of myself as open-minded. Before the games are played, you’re welcome to have whatever take you like about any number of players you want. There’s no way for anyone to know who’s right or wrong for months, as it is.
But let’s rip off the proverbial band-aid: a lot of them will be wrong. A lot of the time, those incorrect predictions come down to the fact that we’re way too presumptuous regarding “what we know” about fantasy football in July.
This is nothing new, but we must still fight against it. Situations change, schemes shift, and within a few short weeks of the next season starting, our summer spreadsheets are buried in the backyard, never to be heard from again. Let’s call it The Projectionista’s Curse: we must predict the future correctly in order to win our fantasy leagues, yet the only thing about the future is that we know we don’t know anything.
“Probability is not a mere computation of odds on the dice or more complicated variants; it is the acceptance of the lack of certainty in our knowledge and the development of methods for dealing with our ignorance.”
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Fooled By Randomness
Ok, Taleb, here’s the truth. Sometimes you see ADPs so egregious, so heinous, that even this humble fantasy football analyst must speak.
It’s not always possible to get ahead of the randomness curve in fantasy football. We can’t predict injuries, or which prospects of today will become the stars of tomorrow. But at the wide receiver position in 2024, I believe we can nab WR1 value well outside of the top 12 in positional ADP. That’s the value of the entire Path to a Fantasy WR1 series – readers can enjoy a framework for exploring the upside for several wideout options, and decide for yourself which ceiling-scores to chase in your drafts.
For me, one wide receiver sticks out well above the rest. This receiver has the quarterback and key personnel consistency year-over-year. They have a history of steady opportunity and were elite-tier in several key efficiency metrics in 2023. They’re still in the prime of their career at 28 years old. And they’re sometimes not even being drafted as a WR3 in a typical 12-team league.
I believe there may be no better illustration of our collective fantasy football hubris than our current assessment of the 2024 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and I believe Chris Godwin may be the most undervalued player in all of fantasy. This article will argue he might be the most underrated flex player available outside the top five rounds in 2024 fantasy drafts.
Find out the full statistical projections for the Footballers Consensus WR1s in the Ultimate Draft Kit.
2023 Season Recap
Godwin’s usage profile simply does not fit the typical WR3 in fantasy drafts.
In the “WR3” section of the draft (WR25-WR36), we’re usually deciding between receivers with strong indicators of league-winning upside – like young up-and-coming stars – and high-profile veterans with diminished production expectations, typically based on myriad team and individual factors. At WR36 as of this article’s writing, fantasy gamers have asserted that Godwin falls squarely into the latter category.
Godwin’s teammate Mike Evans scored 14.3 fantasy points per game (half-PPR) last season, sneaking into the top 10 at the position. Entering his age-31 season, fantasy gamers are selecting him 13th among wideouts in 2024 fantasy drafts. Meanwhile, just 19 months removed from an ACL and MCL tear, Godwin averaged 9.9 points per game, falling squarely into the middle of the pack at the position, and failing to become an every-week difference maker. This has resulted in a 2024 positional ADP barely inside the “starter” tier of wide receivers (WR36).
But I’m not convinced that’s how the 2023 Bucs planned for things to go.
Here is a weekly usage breakdown for Evans and Godwin last season. Can we say, definitively, who the WR1 on this team is? Can you tell which color represents each player?
Evans is in purple and Godwin is in yellow, by the way.
I’m certainly not able to make the “WR1 “call based on routes run and targets (which are two wide receiver stats that tend to be predictable week-over-week). The fluctuations in usage indicate that the 2023 Tampa Bay offense chose their top receiving option based on matchup, and not much more.
This “1A-1B” approach isn’t anything new for Tampa Bay and provides increased confidence that this arrangement will continue despite the departure of Offensive Coordinator Dave Caneles. Even going back to 2021, when the team had Tom Brady under center and was running Bruce Arians’ offense (and later, Byron Leftwich‘s), this duel WR1 scheme was always the preferred usage strategy for Tampa Bay in the passing game.
Measuring Consistent Opportunity
Consistency stats at the production level (like the number of weeks as a WR1, WR2, etc.) are usually a losing battle. The stats aren’t very sticky year-to-year. But the same cannot be said for measuring consistency of opportunity: This is where Godwin’s upside begins to shine through.
To correctly weigh consistent opportunity when projecting into the future, players must also meet other “green flag” conditions: they should have quarterback continuity (Baker Mayfield returns in 2024), similar key offensive personnel (Mike Evans and Rachaad White will be featured alongside Godwin once again), and there should be limited concerns about age-related degradation (at 28 years old entering the season, Godwin passes this test as well).
As far as which usage metric to measure opportunity: targets per game or share of team targets (target share) are both strong options for this analysis. However, with the evolving nature of NFL offensive schemes, I’m more keen to use expected fantasy points (xFP) so that we can incorporate situational factors and air yards into the opportunity discussion. This article uses the open-source xFP model from nflreadR.
To learn more about using expected fantasy points to project future production, check out the 2024 Expectation Report.
So when it comes to Evans vs. Godwin, does the WR1 discussion become any clearer when looking at xFP consistency? Let’s compare Evans and Godwin’s numbers over their last three seasons. We’ll also include the three-season consistency averages for the current cohort of WR25-WR48 in 2024 positional ADP:
| 2021-2023 | xFP | Share of Team’s Flex xFP | 15+ xFP Rate | 25+ xFP Rate | ADP |
| Mike Evans | 15.1 | 19% | 62% | 39% | WR14 |
| Chris Godwin | 15.3 | 19% | 67% | 34% | WR35 |
| 2024 WR25-48 |
7.2 | 10% | 22% | 10% | WR36.5 |
So, uh, that’s a “no.”
What is clear is that, compared to the typical flex-level wideout, Godwin offers significantly increased opportunity-based upside. Godwin has earned 10% more weekly opportunity than the typical player in his positional cohort and earns “starter-viable” usage (15 or more xFP) and “elite” usage (25 or more xFP) at three times the rate.
This is what a fundamentally misvalued player looks like.
To that end, dating back to 2021, Godwin is one of just 23 wide receivers to earn 15+ xFP in two-thirds of his games and earn 25+ xFP in a third of games played. Godwin ranks 15th among all wideouts in xFP per game during that span.
Why, then, is everyone so convinced that Evans is “the guy” in Tampa Bay moving forward?
That answer’s simple.
We’re Overinflating Touchdowns
Fantasy gamers dig touchdowns. That’s nothing new. Opportunity earns your fantasy team a shot. Touchdowns earn your fantasy team a win. And for some, the analysis stops there: one player ranks higher in ADP because one scored a whole bunch of touchdowns, and the other did not.
Despite not missing a single game, and seemingly without residual concern regarding his late-2021 knee surgery, Godwin scored on just 2% of his total targets last year. He finished the season averaging 0.4 fantasy points per game below his opportunity-based scoring expectations (-0.4 FPOE).
Evans, meanwhile, dealt with a bevy of lingering leg issues throughout much of 2023, yet averaged a whopping 0.8 touchdowns per game. He scored a touchdown on over 9% of his targets, the highest rate of any player with over 100 total targets last season (and fifth highest among receivers with 50+ targets). He averaged 2.2 fantasy points per game over expectation (+2.2 FPOE) in 2023, the eighth-highest FPOE among all players with 100+ looks.
Those rates aren’t sustainable, even for an all-time great like Evans.
Since 2011, there have been 93 players who earned at least 50 targets in a season and finished with a touchdown rate of 9% or more. The median touchdown rate for that cohort in the following season is just a hair above 5%. A touchdown rate of 7% for Evans in 2024 would represent an upper-tier (75th-percentile) performance, and projecting anything above that rate would mean we’re considering age-31 Mike Evans to be an extreme outlier as a touchdown scorer.
That’s…actually a legitimate argument. But it’s not this article’s.
As great as Evans has been (I’m in the camp that Evans is a first-ballot hall of famer), projecting another 90th+ percentile touchdown rate year-over-year just isn’t typically realistic.
Especially when the red zone usage looked like this for Tampa Bay’s top pair last year:
| 2023 | RZ Tgts/Gm | 10Z Tgts/Gm | Share of Tgts in RZ | Share of Tgts in 10Z | ADP |
| Mike Evans | 1 | 0.5 | 12% | 5% | WR14 |
| Chris Godwin | 1.2 | 0.6 | 11% | 7% | WR35 |
Once again, there is no discernable difference in red zone usage profiles. None. There is only a difference in fantasy draft capital required to attain either player’s services in 2024.
Was Godwin Even Inefficient in 2023?
In short: not really.
Godwin’s -0.4 FPOE, mentioned above, especially considering his ice-cold touchdown-per-target rate, indicates that Godwin still performed right around his opportunity-based expectations on a per-game basis. Not efficient, per se, but not inefficient either.
For most receivers, yards-after-catch (YAC) on a per-target or per-reception basis tends to fluctuate wildly season-over-season, but for Godwin, it’s only fluctuated between “excellent” and “elite.” Sure, Godwin tends to play more in the slot compared to Evans, where YAC is typically easier to accumulate. Yet Godwin has averaged at least 3.0 YAC-per-reception in each of the last three seasons. Godwin is 17th among all wideouts in total yards after catch since 2021.
Moreover, compared to the rest of the NFL, several advanced metrics indicate that Godwin remains highly contributory to his team’s overall success, and on par with his hall-of-fame teammate. Last season, Godwin ranked 20th among all wide receivers with 100 or more looks at 0.3 expected points added per target (EPA/target), while Evans ranked eighth on that list, all the way up at…0.4 EPA/target. The efficiency margins are slim at the top of the position each year, but the bottom line is that both receivers remained highly efficient in their prescribed roles in 2023.
Godwin’s per-route metrics are where he’s strongest, however. According to PlayerProfiler, Godwin was credited with a “route win” on 304 of his 556 total routes in 2023. That’s the second-most route wins in the entire NFL. Against man-coverage, where it’s imperative a receiver be able to shake off their defender in one-on-one situations, Godwin “won” on a staggering 51% of routes, also second-best among receivers. For comparison, Evans won on just 35% of routes in man-coverage, which ranked outside the top 50 at the position.
One could argue that it’s much more important for Godwin to get consistently open, as Evans has always been a strong contested-catch receiver. Luckily, there is every indication in the world that Godwin still does this at an unquestionably elite level.
While it also might be futile to predict when the dropoff for a world-class player like Evans will occur, let’s not pretend that this isn’t in the range of outcomes for Evans in 2024. It’s reasonable to predict that at some point in Evans’ 30s, the contested catch ability will begin to wane. At that point, without the ability to create consistent separation, the opportunity falloff for Evans could be swift and drastic, especially compared to a route technician like Godwin, who also happens to be nearly two years younger.
The Path for 2024
Godwin’s ADP looks even more enticing when considering the schematic changes in store for Tampa Bay under their new offensive coordinator, Liam Coen. Previously the Rams’ offensive coordinator in 2022 (and before that, part of the Rams’ wide receiver and quarterbacks staff from 2018 to 2020), Coen has hinted at Godwin’s envisioned role within the 2024 Tampa Bay offense, and it’s one that has generated exceptional fantasy performances in the past:
“You’ve got a guy like Chris [Godwin] that I think can be really dynamic on the inside. That’s where I envision him playing, is more on the inside, playing that ‘F’ position that ultimately Cooper [Kupp] played. A lot of things do run through that. So I’m excited about him.”
– Buccaneers’ Offensive Coordinator Liam Coen, at his introductory press conference on February 7, 2024
This is fantastic, actionable insight from the Tampa Bay coordinator. Coen knows that Godwin – whose slot rate increased every season from 2020 to 2022 (to a career-high 60% in 2022) before a dropoff to 32% in 2023 – remains a major problem for defenses when lined up inside. Godwin appears primed to be utilized as a slot-first matchup nightmare once again, much like Cooper Kupp was and continues to be when healthy. Kupp ranked first in receptions and third in receiving yards in this similar ‘F’ role from 2019-2022, famously winning the receiving triple crown (first in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns) in 2021.
With this in mind, a reasonable expectation is that Godwin’s average depth of target (aDOT) and his yards per reception will actually decrease in 2024 (Godwin had a career-high 12.3 YPR in 2023), but that his targets per game and receptions per game will see a boost, with Coen creating easy pitch-and-catch situations for Baker Mayfield and Godwin, and allowing the veteran to more consistently show off his elite separation skills and YAC ability. Combined with a strong chance at improving upon a meager 2% touchdown rate, we have a recipe for league-winning upside.
Best of all: Godwin can succeed without Evans falling off whatsoever. Since Coen joined Sean McVay’s staff in 2018, the Rams’ offense has proven consistently capable of supporting multiple every-week fantasy starters: with the likes of Robert Woods, Demarcus Robinson, and most recently Puka Nacua, all earning stretches as top-12 fantasy producers, even with Cooper Kupp producing alongside them in spades.
Conclusion
It feels like Chris Godwin’s been a Buccaneer for three lifetimes. He broke out at the tail end of the Jameis Winston era, thrived with Tom Brady, and proved highly capable when asked to play a brand new role on the outside, with yet another new quarterback in Baker Mayfield last season.
Pretty much everything about Godwin’s situation looks the same (or better), and fantasy gamers have all but given up on him.
Still very much in the prime of his career, boasting an array of strong efficiency metrics, and with a pending schematic shift that has produced league-winning wide receivers in the past, Chris Godwin gives fantasy gamers the best chance at WR1-level production outside of the top 70 picks, and frankly, it’s not particularly close.
Comments
Love the data driven analysis! I was concerned I reached for him in my draft – taking him before Terry McLaurin, who I actually had ranked higher but panicked once the timer hit 10. While I’d still have McLaurin above him, it’s nice to see that it looks like it may be closer than I expected!