The Reality of Rookie QBs: Can They Get it Done? (Fantasy Football)
We have bantered back and forth on the podcast for years about the upside, downside, inside, and outside of the rookie QB dependency conundrum. Each year we have top QB picks that are thrust into a position to support (or fail) our favorite fantasy options at WR.
On a recent Fantasy Footballers podcast episode, we asked if CJ Stroud is the new normal? Who is the next Justin Herbert? What does history tell us about their WRs?
One of the most referenced statistics we’ve mentioned on the podcast over the years comes from an older article: Can Rookie QBs Sustain WR Production? Kyle Borgognoni wrote that way back in 2018 and the TLDR of that article was simply this: nearly 70% of the time, rookie QBs fail to sustain a top-36 fantasy WR.
While that statistic has mostly held, we wanted to update the information and give a larger scope of rookie QBs and what the effect is on their WRs.
Rookie QBs: A Short History
I wanted to (frightfully?) dig a little deeper into the data myself and attempt to find some insights that might be prescriptive for the future and further outlay the risks and (maybe?) rewards found when it comes to rookie QB dependency in fantasy football.
There have been 28 quarterbacks drafted in the top-10 picks since the 2010 season. This includes 10 #1 overall picks in that 13 year span. There were a few that we obviously can’t consider, because they either barely played or didn’t play their rookie seasons (Mahomes, Lance (lol), Richardson…)
What does the data say?
- In the last 13 years across 28 rookie QBs, only three receivers out of 30 considered reached the 100 reception plateau (Reggie Wayne, Keenan Allen, Adam Thielen), which is 11%.
- In the last 13 years across 28 rookie QBs, only seven receivers eclipsed 1000 total yards on the season: 25%.
The leading receiver for rookie QBs in that span averaged 69 receptions, 837 yards, and 4.3 touchdowns.
Here is where it gets more interesting: when you look at where the QBs were picked, the results start to pick. If you were a #1 overall pick, your leading receiver averaged a respectable 82/1,011/4.3. If you were NOT the #1 overall pick, that plummets to 63/769/4.3, even after CJ Stroud‘s incredible season.
Touchdowns, you ask? No rookie QB in that span has supported even a SINGLE double-digit touchdown scorer in the passing game.
Rookie QBs with 10+ Starts
With any data set, it is valuable to take a fresh look at the parameters you are using to frame whatever question you are asking. While 2004 was a fun QB class (Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger) to start with when Kyle did this study, the NFL offenses in that heyday are very different than the ones we are seeing in 2024. Instead, we decided to begin the study from 2011 onward to see if there were any updates.
We kept the 10+ game threshold as the starting place. Keep in mind that rookie QBs are not guaranteed to hit that number.
- Since 2011, only six rookie QBs started every single game for their respective NFL franchises.
- Every 1st round rookie QB (except Jake Locker and Jordan Love) had at least one start in Year 1 and the average start time was Week 4.
Same as the Old Guard: 2011 to 2018
While we did see an explosion of rookie QBs supporting fantasy WR1s at the beginning, it has been business as usual with these rookie QBs. It kinda makes sense to spot those outliers with All-Pros (and Hall of Famers) starting the 2011 data. In this set (from 2011 to 2018), the average pass rate of team’s deploying a rookie QB (10+ starts) was 21st overall in the NFL.
Updating the Data: 2019 to 2023
Over the last five years, we’ve seen a shift in rookie QBs being able to throw the ball at a much higher rate.
- 10 of the 14 QBs listed here (with 10+ starts) finished in the top-half (16th or better) in the NFL in team pass rate.
- Being in the top half of pass rate does not always equate to successful pass-catchers but the floor for WR2s & WR3s feels much higher than it was with the previous generation..
Main Takeaways
- Your odds are not great when it comes to rookie QB dependency, but it gets a lot better if they were the #1 overall pick.
- The leading receiver for rookie QBs is historically… still a bad bet. You’re talking about a lot of players who had no “relevant” fantasy output ever, regardless of QB play. We’re talking Brian Hartline, Allen Hurns, Kendall Wright, Zay Jones, Robby Anderson, DeVante Parker, Jamison Crowder, etc.
- The wideouts with the biggest seasons were… great already: Reggie Wayne, Steve Smith, Keenan Allen, and Larry Fitzgerald.
- Rookie QBs clearly can’t make mid-receivers less mid. They CAN support top tier seasons from top tier players. Steve Smith put up 79/1394/7 with Cam Newton. Wayne put up 106/1355/5 with Andrew Luck.
- There is a shift over the last five years with teams feeling more comfortable letting rookie QBs rip. The floor with a rookie QBs is higher than a decade ago. If we can project a team’s pass rate to be in the top-16 of the league, there is a good shot that the leading WR finished near WR2 territory.
Use this information as a piece of the puzzle when looking at the WR outlook for guys like Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels. If you are trying to search for buried treasure with the WRs for Drake Maye or Bo Nix, I cannot help you.
Comments
Teams became “more comfortable letting rookie QB’s rip” after the rookie wage scale was introduced. When they didn’t have to commit to the development of their rookie QB’s because of the amount of money they had to pay them they could move on from them more easily and with less detrimental effect on the team long term. Instead, they could put them on the field much earlier to see what they could do…and as you say, some performed and many didn’t.
Love the article, thanks.
interesting article, Andy, thx. What this boils down to is that established, good, veteran WRs boost their rookie QBs while mid WRs don’t. So if you draft Williams, (Smith & Allen) he has a shot at being decent; if you have McCarthy, (JJ & Addison) you have a shot; Maye – nope; Nix (Sutton) – meh, probably not; Daniels has a shot to produce (McLaurin). Penix, if he plays has a shot (London).