Rookie RB Values in the “RB Dead Zone” (Fantasy Football)
Making the right decisions during the thick of a fantasy draft is what can set up fantasy managers for success on the road to claiming that championship trophy this season. Unfortunately, getting RBs right can be especially challenging in what’s become known as the “RB dead zone” from rounds four to eight. Over the last two seasons, I’ve looked through RB ADP data to see why taking the shot on rookie RBs in this range is a better bet for that player returning their value throughout the season!
Dead Zone RBs Data
Since 2018, there have been 111 RBs taken in redraft leagues from rounds four to eight and rookies have typically performed much better than the veterans taken in the same range! Here’s a look at the RBs drafted in that range in 2023:
| Player | ADP | RB Taken | RB Finish |
| Aaron Jones | 4.02 | 14 | 37 |
| Breece Hall | 4.04 | 15 | 4 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 4.06 | 16 | 19 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 4.07 | 17 | 33 |
| Dameon Pierce | 4.11 | 18 | 55 |
| Miles Sanders | 5.02 | 19 | 53 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 5.06 | 20 | 100 |
| Alexander Mattison | 5.08 | 21 | 38 |
| Cam Akers | 5.11 | 22 | 67 |
| Rachaad White | 6.03 | 23 | 7 |
| Dalvin Cook | 6.04 | 24 | 76 |
| James Conner | 6.07 | 25 | 18 |
| Alvin Kamara | 6.09 | 26 | 14 |
| Javonte Williams | 6.10 | 27 | 30 |
| D’Andre Swift | 7.02 | 28 | 23 |
| James Cook | 7.03 | 29 | 11 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 7.05 | 30 | 16 |
| David Montgomery | 7.08 | 31 | 13 |
| AJ Dillon | 8.02 | 32 | 40 |
| Khalil Herbert | 8.08 | 33 | 42 |
| Brian Robinson Jr. | 8.10 | 34 | 22 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 9.06 | 37 | 47 |
| De’Von Achane | 10.01 | 41 | 24 |
Now 2023 was a bit of an outlier season for both veteran and rookie RBs in the dead zone. For rookies, there just weren’t any players that were getting taken in the dead zone when generally we have three to four who work their way into that range. Just outside the dead zone were Zach Charbonnet (9.06) and De’Von Achane (10.01) and it’s been well documented the impact that Achane had on the fantasy world while Charbonnet didn’t quite return his draft value. It also didn’t help that the higher profile rookie RBs of Bijan Robinson (1.08) and Jahmyr Gibbs (3.10) went ahead of the dead zone to be included in this dataset.
On the other hand, veteran RBs drafted in the dead zone last season were the best they’ve been since 2018 when I started compiling this dataset. Nearly half of all veteran RBs taken from rounds four to eight in fantasy drafts finished inside the top 24 on the season. What did stay true with veteran RBs in the dead zone though – and possibly more important – is that only 38% of the RBs drafted in this range returned on their ADP, meaning more than 60% of those players finished worse in the RB rankings than where they were drafted.
First let’s look at the rookies:
| Season | Rookies Return ADP | Percent | Rookies Top-24 Finish | Percent |
| 2018 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 3 | 0% |
| 2019 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 of 4 | 25% |
| 2020 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 60% |
| 2021 | 2 of 3 | 67% | 1 of 3 | 33% |
| 2022 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 of 4 | 25% |
| 2023 | 0 of 0 | 0% | 0 of 0 | 0% |
| Total | 10 of 19 | 53% | 6 of 19 | 32% |
Now let’s look at the veterans:
| Season | Veterans Return ADP | Percent | Veterans Top-24 Finish | Percent |
| 2018 | 9 of 17 | 52% | 7 of 17 | 41% |
| 2019 | 5 of 15 | 33% | 4 of 15 | 27% |
| 2020 | 4 of 16 | 25% | 2 of 16 | 13% |
| 2021 | 7 of 19 | 37% | 6 of 19 | 31% |
| 2022 | 6 of 17 | 35% | 6 of 17 | 35% |
| 2023 | 8 of 21 | 38% | 10 of 21 | 48% |
| Total | 31 of 84 | 37% | 25 of 84 | 30% |
Dead Zone Rookie RBs to Target
Every RB draft class is different, so there isn’t always a clear-cut rookie RB to make sure you have on your roster, but rookies have a good return rate at RB. Since 2012, there has been at least one rookie RB that finished inside the top 24 RBs to end the season. Sometimes it’s an obvious choice and other times there’s an unexpected name that rises to the top for fantasy gold.
This season there’s just one rookie RB who’s ADP has him being drafted in the RB dead zone, so we’ll extend our range out to cast a wider fantasy net.
Jonathon Brooks (CAR)
Andy: RB36 | Jason: RB28 | Mike: RB48
ADP: 8.05 | RB27
The first RB to be picked in the 2024 NFL Draft is also the first fantasy RB off the board in Jonathon Brooks. Fantasy managers that invest a pick in Brooks are doing so with the hopes that he’ll work his way into the lineup sooner than later since he’s still recovering from a torn ACL he suffered during his collegiate days at Texas. While using a pick on a player you’ll instantly put on the IR isn’t ideal, Brooks has a very clear opportunity in front of him to earn the lead back role in Carolina once the team feels he’s ready to get on the field.
Brooks was many expert’s top RB in the 2024 draft class despite only having one real season of collegiate production. The toughest part for fantasy managers will be waiting for Brooks to get worked into the Panthers’ offense once he is off the PUP. The hope for Brooks will be that he can take over the majority of touches for Carolina in what many are hopeful will be an improved offense for 2024 with Dave Canales taking over as head coach. Last season while Canales was offensive coordinator in Tampa Bay, the team’s RBs had 82 receptions, so there’s a very high fantasy upside for Brooks as the most talented RB on the roster if he can take over the main RB duties this season.
Trey Benson (ARI)
Andy: RB44 | Jason: RB42 | Mike: RB40
ADP: 10.02 | RB35
To be fair, Trey Benson isn’t technically in the RB dead zone, but he’s worth having an eye on with just a few weeks of drafting left before the season starts. Benson was viewed as the overall RB2 in the draft class, thanks to his ability in both the rushing and passing game along with elite speed and size. It has been good to see Benson be productive through the preseason and running with the Cardinals’ second-team offense so he could see some limited opportunity early in the season.
Despite his great draft profile, Benson’s landing spot in Arizona is an obstacle for him to be a fantasy contributor. If Benson is going to be able to get on the field, he’ll have to find space behind incumbent RB James Conner who seems to have a stranglehold on the starting job for the Cardinals, though he has missed at least four games to injury each of the last two seasons, so there could be some opportunity for him to break into this backfield. With such a late draft price, Benson could prove to be a value if called upon sooner than later in Arizona.
Blake Corum (LAR)
Andy: RB45 | Jason: RB48 | Mike: RB52
ADP: 10.07 | RB39
We’re getting into the valuable rookie insurance policy range with Blake Corum, but he’s absolutely worth mentioning. Corum has one of the best rushing production profiles in this rookie RB class with a whopping 56 rushing TDs scored in his last three seasons at Michigan. There are concerns about Corum’s athletic ability at the NFL level after running a 4.53 40-yard dash, but we’ve seen that isn’t the end of the world if a player is in the right system like what they’re running in L.A.
The Rams are one of the offensive backfields that fantasy managers want to have a young RB attached to. Last season Kyren Williams started as the backup to Cam Akers and finished as the RB6 on the season despite missing five games. If there’s an open door for Corum, he could fit right into one of the most valuable RB roles in the league, especially when we’re looking at it from the fantasy perspective. Corum is going just outside of the RB dead zone, but he’s worth considering with a later pick, especially for fantasy managers who either invest in Kyren with an early pick or end up pursuing the “zero RB” or “hero RB” strategies.