The 2024 “My Guys” Episode!

Summary:

Ultimate Draft Kit Giveaway and My Guys Episode 00:00

• The episode marks the final day of the Ultimate Draft Kit (UDK) for Life giveaway. This kit is essential for fantasy football drafting, featuring tiered rankings, player blurbs, and over a hundred video profiles covering sleepers, values, breakouts, and busts.
• If you purchase the UDK before 6:30 PM Eastern time, you will be automatically entered into the giveaway for a chance to win the kit for life. Additionally, there are plans for a live stream event where further prizes, including a signed Justin Jefferson jersey, will be available.

“The Ultimate Draft Kit is the one tool you need to dominate your draft.”

Introduction of My Guys and Historical Context 01:28

• The hosts announced that today is “My Guys” day, a recurring theme in the podcast for ten years. During the episode, each host will reveal three players they have strong convictions about.
• Historically, there have been 90 previous “My Guys” selections from every NFL team except for the Atlanta Falcons, which adds to the anticipation for today’s picks.
• In line with the theme, the hosts emphasize the importance of trying to identify players that may be undervalued or overlooked by others.

“Today we’ll reveal three names each for the My Guys episode, but there have been 90 before today’s episode.”

Fantasy Football News Update 03:58

• The podcast did a brief rundown of news and notes from the NFL, including insights from a recent preseason game between the Patriots and Eagles.
• Notable mentions included rookie quarterback Drake May who demonstrated promising skills, alongside some shakiness exhibited by Jacoby Brissett.
• Additionally, the hosts talk briefly about other players and upcoming practices, signaling critical developments that could impact team and player performance.

“Drake May had some plays that, for the first time on film as an NFL player, looked like the stuff we wanted to see from college.”

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Calvin Ridley as a My Guy Pick 08:18

• Calvin Ridley was revealed as one of the hosts’ favorite picks for this fantasy season, drawing parallels to Mike Evans‘ 2023 performance. Ridley is currently being drafted in the seventh round as the wide receiver 37, yet the host believes he has great potential and is significantly undervalued.
• Ridley signed a substantial free-agent contract, showing that he is viewed as a desirable asset within the league. Given the injuries to other players, Ridley’s opportunities are expected to increase, making him a strong candidate to outperform his draft position.

“Calvin Ridley is just such an extreme value… there isn’t a draft I will go without taking him.”

Cincinnati Offense and Will Levis Potential 11:58

• The discussion highlights the transition of the Cincinnati offense and its shotgun formation, which historically led to high passing rates with Joe Burrow. Over the last two seasons, they ranked fourth and second in passing.
• The focus is on how this offense will adapt with Will Levis as the quarterback, diverging from the traditional Derrick Henry-led run-heavy style seen in Tennessee. The conversation emphasizes that the Titans will need to let Levis showcase his skills as a thrower, particularly utilizing a true number one receiver’s capabilities.
• Brian Callahan indicated that the offense design may mirror the one Jamar Chase thrived in, hinting at a scheme that leverages a versatile number one receiver with a unique skill set, suggesting Levis has the potential to excel under these circumstances.
• Levis has traits that could benefit deep passing; however, there are concerns about his decision-making, particularly regarding taking sacks and recognizing pressure. There’s optimism amongst the speakers that with proper offseason development and a capable head coach, Levis could significantly improve.

“This is not the Derrick Henry experience in Tennessee anymore; this is going to be about what we have in Will Levis.”

Calvin Ridley‘s Value as a Draft Pick 12:27

• The conversation pivots to Calvin Ridley, focusing on his draft value which seems to be underrated at position 37 despite him finishing last season as the wide receiver 17. The discussion indicates that Ridley was highly targeted in the red zone.
• It is strongly suggested that Ridley should be drafted significantly earlier, possibly as a wide receiver three, as he possesses top 12 potential. The speakers argue that the offensive environment is conducive for him to excel, particularly with Will Levis at QB.
• There’s a prominent discussion about Ridley’s inconsistency, especially reflecting on past performance in Atlanta and recent numbers from Jacksonville, but the speakers remain confident that he still holds immense potential in Tennessee.

“Please draft him everywhere; it won’t cost you much.”

Doubts and Risks Surrounding De’Von Achane 16:22

• Devon Achane is introduced as a risky but potentially rewarding pick given his electric speed and skill set. The speakers acknowledge his injury history and crowded backfield situation but also emphasize his explosiveness and ability to evade defenders.
• They note that Achane was averaging 15 opportunities per game and suggest that with slight increases in touches in his sophomore season, he could become a significant player in the Miami offense.
• The analysis points out how Achane is not just a runner but also an excellent pass catcher, with statistics reflecting usage comparable to elite receivers in his rookie year. His potential to become a primary target in designed plays is highlighted as a key factor for his success in the upcoming season.

“He’s unbelievably fast, and you can’t stop it.”

Kyler Murray: A Must-Draft Quarterback 21:42

• The discussion revolves around Kyler Murray as a prime target for fantasy football drafts in 2024, especially if he stays healthy throughout the season. His upside positions him as a top three pick in upcoming drafts.
• Murray is currently being drafted as the quarterback 8, which presents tremendous value considering he averages over 20 fantasy points per game and nearly 40 rushing yards, placing him in a unique category alongside elite quarterbacks like Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen.
• His return to the Arizona Cardinals significantly improved their offensive capabilities, helping him achieve a quarterback rank of 9 in points per game from week 10 onward. This performance included several games where he exceeded 20 fantasy points, highlighting his potential even with a struggling supporting cast.
• An essential aspect of Murray’s game is his mobility, which provides him with a safe floor and considerable upside due to his rushing abilities. The team’s strategic decision-making, demonstrated by their frequent two-point conversions and fourth-down attempts, also enhances Murray’s fantasy potential.
• The discussion emphasizes the importance of opportunity and value at his current draft position, suggesting he could be a reliable and explosive option in your fantasy lineup.

“If he is healthy, you’re going to be talking about a guy who’s a top three pick. That’s his upside.”

Malik Nabers: The Hidden Gem 28:00

• Malik Neighbors, wide receiver for the New York Giants, is highlighted as a potential breakout star. His collegiate performance and ability to create separation set high expectations for him. Despite concerns regarding the Giants’ offense, his draft price may present a compelling opportunity for fantasy players.
• The Giants have numerous vacated targets, opening the door for Neighbors to step up significantly in their passing game. Analysts expect him to have a target share around 25-28%, which historically correlates with successful rookie wide receivers.
• The statistics reveal that rookie wide receivers that achieve a target share of over 23% generally average a solid 13.2 fantasy points per game, positioning Neighbors potentially among those who could exceed expectations throughout the season.
• Additionally, historical trends indicate that late-season performance often improves for rookie receivers, underscoring the possibility of Neighbors evolving into a vital part of the Giants’ offense.

“Malik Neighbors is going to be in that boat, and rookie wide receivers are often league winners down the stretch.”

Malik Nabers: High Potential Late Round Pick 31:59

• Malik Nabors is being considered as a potential first-round draft selection for the upcoming year, but he can currently be picked up in the mid to late fifth round. His current ADP might be misleading since it undervalues his talent and explosive capabilities compared to other more volatile options like Josh Jacobs.
• Nabors could have a significant impact if he receives a solid target share and remains healthy throughout the season. The success of rookies drafted in similar ADP ranges in the past suggests that they often exceed expectations.
• Despite concerns around his ADP, the player’s talent remains unassailable, and he is viewed as a viable candidate for fantasy teams, particularly on platforms like ESPN.

“If he stays healthy and he’s on the field, this offense cannot function without this gentleman.”

Isaiah Pacheco: Boom or Bust Potential 36:24

• Isaiah Pacheco is described as a valuable option for fantasy football, particularly as a running back who checks off many key boxes for success, including being on a strong offense and being an effective pass catcher.
• Pacheco’s performance during the postseason solidified his standing, where he had significant percentages of the running back opportunities for the Chiefs in crucial playoff games. His efficiency and overall impact in the red zone indicate that he could exceed expectations in the coming season.
• Despite missing a few games last year, Pacheco’s fantasy points per game mirrored that of top-tier running backs, suggesting he has the potential to be a Workhorse back, especially as the Chiefs have shown commitment to him over the offseason.

“He is a workhorse back that’s going to catch the ball.”

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Jaylen Waddle‘s Performance and Potential 42:19

• Jaylen Waddle is often overshadowed by Tyreek Hill, as he plays as the second wide receiver on the team. However, Waddle’s skills are undeniable; he had an impressive rookie season. In particular, he was recently eclipsed in receptions by rookie sensation Puka Nacua, who broke Waddle’s own rookie record for receptions just a couple of years prior.
• Waddle finished his second season as the wide receiver seven despite having Tyreek Hill on the same team. Although his performance dipped during his third year due to injuries, he still posted a solid season, finishing as wide receiver 34, playing only 14 games. His points-per-game output remained competitive with top players like Chris Olave, despite his low touchdown count.
• An important aspect of Waddle’s game is his ability to excel against zone defenses, boasting an impressive 3.09 yards per route run against zone coverage, which ranks him among the top receivers in the league for the past five years.
• In terms of fantasy football, Waddle’s average points per game in his first three years exceeds that of legendary receivers like Calvin Johnson, DeAndre Hopkins, and Cooper Kupp. Despite being drafted too high last year, Waddle now presents a post-hype sleeper opportunity, as his average draft position has fallen significantly.

“Jaylen Waddle has averaged more fantasy points per game in his first three years than Calvin Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins.”

Current Draft Outlook for Jaylen Waddle 48:05

• As the fantasy football season approaches, Waddle’s current average draft position indicates he is being selected around wide receiver 17 on various platforms. This represents a great value, particularly when compared to other players like Puka Nacua, who had a breakout rookie year but is now attracting more attention.
• There’s a discussion about overall player rankings, with emphasis on the unique situation of Waddle fighting for targets in a high-powered Miami offense alongside speedster Devon Achane and leading receiver Tyreek Hill.
• The shift in public perception after Waddle’s performance last year means he could be a steal for those who recognize his potential amidst the disappointment felt from his previous ADP.

“Waddle’s price has come down because people were disappointed relative to last year’s expectations.”

Quarterback Performance and Potential 52:30

• The video discusses the performance of quarterbacks, with specific mention of the Commanders’ offensive line, which allowed an alarming 65 sacks, the highest in the league. This raises concerns for quarterbacks regarding their health and ability to perform efficiently under pressure.
• It emphasizes the dual-threat capability required of quarterbacks, pointing out that scrambles yield more value than designed runs. For example, players like Anthony Richardson are expected to provide greater rushing attempts, which can significantly enhance their overall fantasy football value.
• The hosts highlight Jaden Daniels’ potential, suggesting that despite being drafted later, he offers tremendous upside due to his rushing ability and his connection with coach Kliff Kingsbury, who previously had success with rookie quarterbacks.

“Jaden Daniels can throw 20 touchdowns and scramble to end up as the quarterback seven while being drafted as quarterback 15.”

Drafting Strategies for Quarterbacks 55:10

• The discussion shifts to a more tactical approach regarding quarterback selection in drafts. The hosts stress the importance of targeting mobile quarterbacks who can accumulate points through both passing and rushing.
• They mention that quarterbacks like Kyler Murray and Jaden Daniels should be prioritized later in drafts. This strategy allows for building a strong overall roster before taking a quarterback, thus optimizing one’s team composition.
• They advocate for grabbing Jaden Daniels if he is available in the later rounds, as he embodies the qualities of a sleeper with significant potential.

“If Jaden Daniels is in your 10th round and you already have your quarterback, grab him.”

Player Comparisons and Expectations 58:20

• The conversation shifts toward player expectations, particularly for rookies like Tank Dell. The hosts analyze Dell’s performance from the previous season, where he showcased significant potential despite injuries, finishing as the wide receiver 38 in just 11 games with crucial top performances.
• Comparisons are drawn to established players, noting that in games where both he and Nico Collins were healthy, Dell had better metrics regarding target share and fantasy points per game, hinting at his potential to emerge as a top receiver.
• Dell’s strengths as a smaller wide receiver were highlighted, indicating that despite his size, he was successful in targeting downfield plays rather than just short screens, which are typical for players of his stature.

“For such a small wide receiver, he was not utilized as expected last year.”

Tank Dell‘s Potential and Injury Concerns 01:01:43

• There is anticipation for increased production in receiving yards for Tank Dell, potentially averaging double-digit receiving yards per game. The optimism is correlated with the performance of CJ Stroud, the quarterback, with expectations that Dell may reach 75 yards per game in this offense.
• However, concerns about Dell’s injury history remain. The injury labeled as “injury-prone” is often criticized by experts, particularly when there is a single unusual injury history, such as the fractured left fibula he sustained in 2022 after a freak accident during practice.
• Despite this injury, Dell’s recovery appeared solid as he showcased his abilities in preseason with notable plays, solidifying confidence in his return to form. Historical context shows that before last year’s injury, he played numerous games across college and the NFL without injury setbacks.

“Labeling someone as injury-prone is not logical.”

James Cook‘s Role in Buffalo’s Offense 01:05:19

• James Cook of the Buffalo Bills is highlighted as a key player with considerable potential. Currently ranked as running back 14 in many fantasy projections, his efficiency is a significant factor, as he led the league in yards before contact among running backs last season.
• Cook’s output is expected to rise, particularly given the changes in the Bills’ offense under new coordinators. A notable split shows that Cook’s opportunities and fantasy points surged after changes were made mid-season, favoring a more run-oriented approach.
• The offense has vacated numerous target opportunities due to departures of past contributors, which could enhance Cook’s involvement. Despite previous concerns about rushing touchdowns, analysts believe that as his efficiency remains high, his productivity could reflect positively, predicting a spike in scoring.

“James Cook can absolutely be involved in those vacant targets.”

Upcoming Events and Ticket Information 01:11:53

• The Fantasy Footballers are encouraging fans to join them for a live event where they will be engaging with the community. They plan to throw signed gear into the crowd to enhance the experience.
• Attendees can get their tickets by visiting BallersLive.com, which is the official site for the live event. In addition to the in-person experience, there is an opportunity to join a live stream for the Ultimate Draft Kit, scheduled for that same afternoon at 6 PM Eastern time.
• Fans are reminded that it is still possible to purchase the Ultimate Draft Kit for those interested in enhancing their fantasy football strategies.

“You got to be there to win it.”

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