Players Who POP: Regression and Bounce-Back Candidates for Week 5 (Fantasy Football)

Welcome back to Players Who POP for Week 5 of the 2024 season, where we try to identify bounce-back players who can give our fantasy teams a much-needed boost or players who may be due for a bit of a fall from grace from a production standpoint. Or in the case of anyone forced to start a tight end not named George Kittle, we can look at the data, commiserate, and…I don’t know, hold each other when none of them hit? It’s bad out there at tight end for most fantasy managers. Like, really bad. And now Dallas Goedert‘s on a bye week too. Great.

That’s right, with Week 5 here, we’ve officially hit the bye weeks and the injury hits seem more pervasive and impactful than ever this season. Luckily POP’s job is to identify players who stand out as in-season bounce-back candidates. It’ll also help identify some regression candidates who might be good options to “sell high” in trades or players to have lower expectations for going forward. Let’s dig into the methodology and then see what the data has to say this week.

Methodology

Each week, we use machine learning to predict rest-of-season average fantasy scoring. You can read the complete strategy behind POP, and why it’s different than other expected points metrics here but here’s the tl;dr: The two best-performing metrics for predicting player fantasy points per game were player share of team opportunity value and teammate fantasy points per game. This model understands that team strength – measured in teammate fantasy production – does in fact play a factor in an individual’s fantasy success, albeit at roughly one-third the importance of a player’s opportunity according to variable importance tests. What is opportunity value, you ask? Without getting too far into the weeds (the linked article goes deep if you’re curious), we’re using a machine learning strategy called “stacking” – using several sub-models (like expected receptions, expected rushes, etc) as predictors in a new model. Each sub-model is also a machine learning model, but they are rolled-up (or “stacked”) into one metric in order to improve predictions within this final model.

Note: The original article refers to this roll-up metric as “expected fantasy points,” but that’s a bit of a misnomer. Instead opportunity value is a more appropriate renaming for this volume metric created in the feature engineering phase of the model-building process.  The metric is distinctly different than pre-existing expected fantasy points metrics like the one expertly analyzed in our Expectation Report series.

Alright, let’s see if any hidden gems POP out to us this week.

Running Backs

Bounce-Back Candidate: Breece Hall

Last week was rough for Breece Hall and the entire Jets offense, but it’s hard to believe it could get worse. Despite seeing 15 opportunities, Hall managed just 18 total yards and finished the day with under three fantasy points. However, there’s still reason to believe in Hall. He ranks first among running backs in routes run and is near the top in route participation rate as well. The concern comes from his lack of explosive plays — he’s 42nd in yards per touch, outside the top 50 in evaded tackles per touch, and outside the top 35 in breakaway run rate. He’s also had 15 runs stuffed for no gain, the fourth most in the NFL. While those efficiency metrics look downright bleak, I don’t expect Hall to stay in this slump forever. Even with a tough road matchup against Minnesota’s elite defensive scheme in Week 5, Hall is a strong buy-low candidate for RB1-needy squads. It may take another week for the breakout, but I’m staying the course and buying into Hall’s upside.

Regression Candidate: Kenneth Walker 

It’s really tough to bet against Kenneth Walker right now, especially after his RB2 overall performance this Monday in a losing effort against the Lions. His seventh-ranked route participation suggests that while his target numbers aren’t eye-popping at four targets per game, there’s room for growth in that area. He’s already 13th in opportunity share and sixth in fantasy points per opportunity. Plus, his 28% evasion rate and his breakaway rate of 15% both rank top-three among backs. And despite all that, POP still suggests he’s still pretty strongly overperforming expected value. This two-week period might be the peak of Walker’s value with the team likely to put up numbers against a middling Giants’ defense. Even if I believe in the player, I’m not confident he can maintain this level of production throughout the season.

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Bounce-Back/”Breakout” Candidate: Kareem Hunt

What year is it?

Hunt made his season debut as a member of the Chiefs (this time) in Week 4, and after Carson Steele’s early fumble, it was all Hunt from then on. He handled 17 total opportunities—14 carries and three targets—racking up a decent yet unimpressive 85 total yards. But those are fantasy starter numbers, no doubt. Hunt looks like he’s earned the trust of the offensive staff, and with his role likely growing, he’s primed for a bigger share of the offense, especially with the team’s receiving corps in flux due to Rashee Rice’s injury. New Orleans typically fields a strong rush defense, but this season, they’re only league average in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs, so this matchup might not be as tough as some may think it is. We’ll see if the usage remains steady week over week, but we could very well be looking at a rest-of-season low-end RB1 if it does.

Regression Candidate: Chuba Hubbard

Hubbard has been a top-10 fantasy scorer among running backs for two straight weeks, finding the end zone, seeing at least four targets, and surpassing 100 total yards in each contest. Anyone getting Hubbard’s level of usage – 26 opportunities in Week 3 and 22 in Week 4 – is startable on a weekly basis. However, with Jonathon Brooks nearing his return and the slight possibility of Carolina eventually (and inexplicably) turning back to Bryce Young at quarterback, Hubbard’s production has multiple ways it could dip even if he continues to play well. This week’s matchup against the Chicago Bears presents an additional challenge. While the Bears don’t jump off the page in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs — they rank just 24th in that metric — they’ve started to climb the ranks in other key areas. They’re now top 12 in both points per play allowed and yards allowed per play.

Wide Receivers

Bounce-Back Candidate: Jaxon Smith-Njigba

This definitely looks like the breakout season for last year’s 20th overall pick. Smith-Njigba saw 12 targets in Week 4, marking the second time in four games he’s hit double digits in targets. While his stat line — eight receptions for 51 yards — might not blow you away (though it’s just fine in full-PPR leagues) his opportunity value looks like it’s still on the rise. What’s really intriguing is that POP Score now ranks his role slightly higher than teammate DK Metcalf’s, signaling a potential shift in the offense (though I still think the team sees Metcalf as the “1A”). Both receivers can thrive for fantasy, but betting on Smith-Njigba feels particularly compelling, especially against a Giants defense that’s struggled against the pass all year. They rank 17th in yards per play allowed, 18th in pass yards allowed per play, and well below average in points per play. This could be the week we see Smith-Njigba turn those opportunities into a monster fantasy performance.

Bounce-Back Candidate: Chris Olave

While it might not seem like Olave is underperforming his POP Score by much, I’m still convinced that he’s poised for an even bigger role within the Saints’ offense in the weeks to come. Sure, players like Rashid Shaheed and Alvin Kamara have grabbed the spotlight early on, but Olave has already logged three top-30 fantasy finishes this season, with one game cracking the top 10 in fantasy scoring among wide receivers. He’s ninth in yards per route run, seventh in yards per team pass attempt, and third in EPA per play — elite metrics that show his continued ascent toward becoming the Saints’ true alpha receiver and producing like it. The Saints clearly want him to take that role and with Kamara’s efficiency likely to dip if he’s overused (as we saw last year), getting Olave more consistently involved would be a smart way to keep the offense balanced and explosive.

Bounce-Back Candidate: Drake London

London has been consistent with six receptions in each of his last three games, but without a touchdown in Week 4, his production was highly mediocre. The frustrating part is that London hasn’t had the explosive performances many hoped for — his season-high in receiving yards is just 67. However, there’s reason for optimism. He saw a whopping 164 air yards last week, double his previous season high, which points to growing upside. London has commanded 46% of the team’s red zone targets, a trend I think will hold. And he’s currently sitting at 7.8 targets per game, a trend I very much don’t think will hold (I believe he’ll finish the season well over eight per game as his connection with Kirk Cousins improves). The Falcons face the Buccaneers this Thursday, and while Tampa Bay’s defense has been solid against the pass, they’re only slightly above league average in points allowed per play. This game has sneaky shootout potential, and London’s opportunity value is trending up, setting the stage for those breakout performances we’ve been waiting for.

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Regression Candidate: Jayden Reed

Don’t mistake me: Reed is a star on the rise, and I’d only consider trading him if you’re getting a premium return. He’s ranked second in yards per target, fourth in yards per route run, and first in both target separation and target premium metrics according to PlayerProfiler. On top of that, he’s fourth among wide receivers in evaded tackle rate, showing how dynamic he is with the ball in his hands. However, maintaining a top-five average in fantasy scoring among all wide receivers seems like a stretch even for a player of this caliber, and even with the passing offense theoretically condensing more due to injury. With Christian Watson potentially out for an extended period, Reed will continue to see looks, yes, and the upcoming matchup against the Rams’ porous defense looks enticing. But if someone values Reed as a top-five asset, it might be worth trading him for an elite fantasy option, because I’m not fully convinced we’re there yet. I still like him season-long, but the numbers still point to a little regression from here on out.

Bounce-Back Candidate: Michael Pittman

Tight Ends

Bounce-Back Candidate: Trey McBride / Taysom Hill / David Njoku

Just a quick note that all should be in your lineups if they’re healthy. Yes, we live in a world where Taysom Hill is an every-week starter tight end. Yes, we know that Blake Whiteheart‘s insane POP Score is a placeholder for Njoku’s opportunity should he be able to get back in the lineup after missing the last three games. Start any and all with as much confidence as you can muster.

Bounce-Back Candidate: Jake Ferguson

Whenever a player scores double-digits two weeks in a row and POP Score still says the player is still underperforming, I’m highly intrigued, especially since the Cowboys will be without Brandin Cooks for the foreseeable future. Ferguson seems to have recovered well from a Week 1 knee sprain, as he’s handled over 72% of the team’s routes since returning in Week 3, earning a healthy 18 targets over the last two weeks. The Cowboys have a tough matchup on the road against a stingy Pittsburgh defense this week, and they might need Ferguson as a chain mover and quick outlet should Dak Prescott face consistent pressure.

POP Scores (Previous Opportunity-Based Projection) – Week 5