AFC East Divisional Podcast Recap for 2024 (Fantasy Football)
Continuing with their divisional breakdowns, Andy, Mike, and Jason dive into the AFC East. The Bills have dominated the division, securing the title for four consecutive seasons. However, could recent roster shakeups pave the way for a new divisional champion? The Dolphins came tantalizingly close last season and the Jets hopefully get a healthy Aaron Rodgers back. Join the guys as they analyze all the offseason moves and share their predictions for who will come out on top. It’s going to be a fun one to watch!
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For a more in-depth look at fantasy players in the AFC East, be sure to explore the comprehensive suite of tools available in the UDK.
Let’s Get Divisional – AFC EAST
Buffalo Bills (11-6)
Player Additions: WR Curtis Samuel, QB Mitchell Trubisky, WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR Chase Claypool, WR Mack Hollins
Player Subtractions: WR Stefon Diggs, WR Gabe Davis, RB Latavius Murray
Rookies: WR Keon Coleman (Round 2), RB Ray Davis (Round 4)
The Buffalo Bills clinched the AFC East Division Championship but fell to the Chiefs in the Divisional Round. Is time running out for Buffalo in this championship window, especially with Josh Allen‘s rising cap hit, which will increase from $30 million to $60 million next year? Allen’s contract is already impacting the team, as they’ve had to let go of key defensive pieces.
Under Joe Brady’s direction, the team’s pass attempts decreased while they heavily relied on the run game with James Cook. Cook had 1,567 yards from scrimmage, the third most in the NFL behind only Christian McCaffrey and Breece Hall. His opportunities increased by nearly five per game after Brady took over. Cook is currently being drafted as RB14 but finished as RB11 last year, but should see positive TD regression after only getting two TDs last season, offering great value if you miss out on players like Devon Achane.
Josh Allen‘s rush attempts also saw a significant uptick, averaging 9.7 rush attempts per game and scoring eight rushing touchdowns in the final six games from Week 12 on.
This may be the new identity of the team. They let go of Stefon Diggs, a down-field threat, and Gabe Davis, leaving Dalton Kincaid as the probable target leader. Per Javier Manzanera’s vacated targets article, Buffalo has 317, 283 being from WRs. Kincaid quietly had an impressive rookie season with 73 receptions, the fourth most ever for a rookie tight end, including seven top-12 finishes. However, his production dropped when Dawson Knox returned to the field. Curtis Samuel, who has previously worked with Joe Brady, joins the team. Jason believes Samuel will exceed his current ADP value, but only by a little.
First-round draft pick Keon Coleman brings personality to the team, but he is taking longer to develop, according to reports from camp. Khalil Shakir returns but remains a boom-or-bust option rather than a consistent performer, a description that also fits TE Dawson Knox. The real question is: can this team score as many points as they did before losing their star, Stefon Diggs? Although he wasn’t super efficient towards the end of the season, he was still on the field and garnering defensive looks.
Vegas Predicts 10.5 wins for the Bills this season.
Miami Dolphins (11-6)
Player Additions: WR Odell Beckham Jr.
Player Subtractions: WR Cedrick Wilson Jr., WR Chase Claypool, WR Robbie Chosen
Rookies: RB Jaylen Wright (Round 4), WR Malik Washington (Round 6)
The Dolphins played six games against teams with a winning record last year and went 1-5. QB Tua Tagovailoa looked like a great fantasy pick through the first couple of months but quietly fell off. Waddle’s injury probably had something to do with it. They added Odell Beckham Jr. and didn’t lose anyone significant. Tyreek Hill, even at age 30, hasn’t lost a step. He finished the season with nine 20+ fantasy point games. The Cheetah had 70% of his receptions go for a first down. He is the ultimate cheat code. With Jaylen Waddle coming back from injury, it should open up even more opportunities for Hill to be productive, as defenses will have to split their attention between the pair.
In the draft, they added WR Malik Washington, who had a top prospect score for Mike, although he fell in the draft to the sixth round. If Waddle or Hill misses time, Washington would have a huge opportunity to produce. Coach McDaniel was pumped for the pick, as he was heavily targeting Washington. The Dolphins also added more speed to their RB room by drafting RB Jaylen Wright. He fits the mold as an insurance policy, especially in deeper leagues.
Devon Achane is currently going as RB8, while Raheem Mostert is going several rounds later as RB25. The biggest discrepancy in ADP on this team is the RB room. The world is saying the baton is going to be passed. Mostert’s value lies in his opportunities inside the five-yard line; last year he scored 20+ TDs. There’s no reason that should change. What makes the bet on Achane so scary is that Mostert isn’t likely to lose those goal-line opportunities. According to Matthew Betz’s training camp story lines article, “Achane’s 7.8 (lol) yards per carry mark last year was the best ever for an RB in a single season, and he lapped the field in NextGen Stats’ Rushing Yards over Expected metric.” Achane’s upside lies in his ability to rip off long runs; he doesn’t need goal-line work to score, which is why his value is so high.
Vegas predicts 9.5 wins for the Dolphins this season.
New York Jets (7-10)
Player Additions: WR Mike Williams, QB Tyrod Taylor
Player Subtractions: QB Zach Wilson, RB Dalvin Cook, TE C.J. Uzomah, WR Randall Cobb
Rookies: WR Malachi Corley (Round 3), RB Braelon Allen (Round 4), QB Jordan Travis (Round 5), RB Isaiah Davis (Round 5)
The whole world was watching Monday Night Football, and Aaron Rodgers went down with a season-ending Achilles tear. Totally devastating for the team, but supposedly healthy going into this season, Aaron Rodgers has the opportunity, with the talent around him, to have a bounce-back campaign and lead this team into contending status. He hasn’t had a QB1 week since 2019. He also could, as a 40 year old QB coming off an Achilles tear, not be the QB of yesteryear. With only 11 passing TDs for the Jets last year, there should be serious positive TD regression as long as Rodgers can stay healthy.
Last season, the team had to depend heavily on Breece Hall. It seemed like the only thing they could do was dump the ball off to Breece all the time. With a healthy Rodgers back, the team shouldn’t have to rely as heavily on Hall to have an effective offense. He’s shown he can do it, though, and if things go south and Rodgers isn’t what the Jets are hoping, we know the team will heavily rely on Hall to move the offense. If the team is more efficient under Rodgers, Hall will see an uptick in scoring opportunities regardless and is an elite pick if you’re going “hero RB” in your draft. Target hog Garrett Wilson should hopefully see better efficiency with a better QB. Based on his yardage expectations, he should have another four to five TDs. Coming off an ACL tear, Mike Williams joins the team and gives them a true X receiver outside. He’s not someone I’m targeting in any draft, however, that’s a game I’ve gambled on too many times and been burned before.
Vegas predicts 9.5 wins for the Jets this season.
New England Patriots (4-13)
Player Additions: RB Antonio Gibson, WR K.J. Osborn, QB Jacoby Brissett, TE Austin Hooper
Player Subtractions: WR DeVante Parker, RB Ezekiel Elliott, TE Mike Gesicki, QB Mac Jones
Rookies: QB Drake Maye (Round 1), WR Ja’Lynn Polk (Round 2), WR Javon Baker (Round 4)
The biggest headline this offseason is the addition of third-overall pick QB Drake Maye. Well, that and the end of the Bill Belichick era in New England. Jerod Mayo takes over as head coach and faces an uphill battle in a tough division with a rookie QB and questions at receiver.
🎵 When it's Gonna Be (Drake) Maye? What week does he take over?
Since 2012, every 1st round rookie QB (except Jordan Love) had at least ONE start in Year 1 & 79% started by Week 5. pic.twitter.com/73B4khOrde
— Fantasy Footballers (@TheFFBallers) July 13, 2024
When will Maye actually get his start? Veteran QB Jacoby Brissett is slated to be the starter heading into the season until Maye is ready to take the reins. However, Maye enters an offense with questions at receiver. Do they even have a WR2 on the team? They don’t have a clear WR1. Unless one of the rookies, WR Ja’Lynn Polk or WR Javon Baker, breaks out, they’re all WR3s in the NFL. Which WRs will make the roster? There are so many WRs here, but not all of them can make the cut:
- KJ Osborn
- Demario “Pop” Douglas
- JuJu Smith-Schuster
- Ja’Lynn Polk
- Javon Baker
- Kendrick Bourne
- K.J. Osborn
- Tyquan Thornton
Paul Marnie thinks Javon Baker (ADP 17.07/ WR81) and Kendrick Bourne are late-round values. (ADP 21.02/ WR95) You can read his entire article uncovering late-round gems here.
There are more questions than answers with this offense. Although the talent is there with Maye, will the pieces around him be enough for him to succeed? They also have a brutal schedule and are projected to be underdogs in every game by Vegas.”
For a more detailed look at this wide receiver competition and other off-season storylines, check out Betz MONSTER article.
Vegas predicts 9.5 wins for the Patriots this season.
Who Wins the Division?
Talk about a split vote; no one has the same team winning the division.
One thing they can all agree on is that it won’t be the Patriots.
Jason: Dolphins, Bills, Jets, Patriots
Mike: Bills, Jets, Dolphins, Patriots
Andy: Jets, Dolphins, Bills, Patriots
Comments
Great read!
Ty!