Undrafted Fantasy Gems: Diamonds of the Deeper Rounds (Fantasy Football)
Every single year undrafted players make a huge impact in fantasy football. We only have to cast our minds back twelve months and look at the average draft positions of guys like Puka Nacua (WR88), Nico Collins (WR57), Tank Dell (WR73) Trey McBride (TE32) and C.J. Stroud (QB24) to see that there is plenty of value to be had in the post-draft waiver wire…you just have to be brave (and lucky) enough to find it.
Below I am going to take a dive into some of my favorite prospects being drafted outside of the first 14 rounds in fantasy drafts. I will be using a single QB 0.5-point scoring format and a starting roster construction of 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, and 1 FLEX. All ADP data courtesy of Sleeper.
Going somewhat against the grain, I’ll kick things off looking at the wide receiver position – primarily as there is greater room for optimism that the pass-catchers on this list make a more significant impact in fantasy this year…but also I get the feeling if I started this article talking about Alexander Mattison (spoiler) then about 95% of you would close the page.
Wide Receivers
Darnell Mooney – Atlanta Falcons (ADP 15.03 – WR71)
In true Ballers fashion…I’d like to play a game! We all know Drake London was the Falcons’ clear numero uno wideout last season, but who was their number two? If you said Mack Hollins, you’re a winner…but if you rostered him at any point in 2023, you’d have felt like a loser. Almost unbelievably, Hollins’ line of 18 receptions for 251 scoreless yards was enough to see him finish as the fantasy WR2 on this team, despite ending the year as the overall WR118! If you combine the targets, receptions, and yardage totals of Hollins, KhaDarel Hodge, Scotty Miller, and Van Jefferson (that’s every WR on the roster not named Drake London), it still falls short of London’s numbers.
| Player | Targets | Receptions | Yards | Touchdowns |
Fantasy Finish
|
| Drake London | 110 | 69 | 905 | 2 | WR39 |
| Mack Hollins | 30 | 18 | 251 | 0 | WR118 |
| Scotty Miller | 16 | 11 | 161 | 2 | WR120 |
| Van Jefferson | 28 | 12 | 101 | 0 | WR125 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 23 | 14 | 232 | 0 | WR128 |
You could argue there were a number of factors at work that led to such a disastrous showing from the Falcons’ wide receiver room:
- Atlanta ranked 25th in passing attempts on the year with 530
- The uninspiring QB combo of Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke threw for only 17 touchdowns on the year (26th in the league)
- Only the Cardinals and the Vikings targeted the tight end position more than Atlanta (34.3% of team targets)
- Rookie RB Bijan Robinson commanded 86 targets out of the backfield – only Breece Hall had more (95)
Or perhaps the most damning indictment of them all…Arthur Smith hates your fantasy team.
Thankfully for fantasy managers, the Falcons made a clean sweep in the offseason, including their head coach, and added some fresh faces via a number of big free-agency moves. In addition to making Kirk Cousins their new franchise quarterback, Atlanta brought in speedy wide receiver Darnell Mooney on a three-year, $39 million deal to add some big-play ability to this offense.
With KhaDarel Hodge as the only wideout returning alongside Drake London, Mooney immediately slots into the WR2 role for this new-look passing offense. With Captain Kirk under center, the expectation is for this Falcons team to throw the ball…a lot. Before going down with a season-ending Achilles tear in Week 8, nobody had thrown the ball more on the year than Cousins, with the then Minnesota Viking attempting 311 passes at a rate of 38.8 per game. Sure, Drake London stands to be the main beneficiary of Cousins stepping in at QB, but it shouldn’t be forgotten that Mooney has achieved two milestones in his four-year career that have as yet eluded London – recording a 1,000+ yard season and finishing as an overall WR2 for fantasy. Mooney achieved both of those feats back in 2021, leading the Bears in all receiving categories that year with a line of 81 receptions for 1,055 yards and four TDs from 140 targets – which is all the more impressive given it was off the back of passes from Andy Dalton and Justin Fields,
Admittedly his previous two campaigns have been less exhilarating, but Mooney possesses the ability to contribute to both this offense and your fantasy team if given the opportunity, even if he is the WR2. After all, Jordan Addison was the clear secondary wide receiver behind Justin Jefferson last year for the Vikings, but in the eight games with Captain Kirk at QB, Addison had 36 receptions for 482 yards and seven touchdowns, making him the overall WR7. If Mooney, currently being drafted as the 71st WR off the board can replicate a stat line anywhere near that, he could be a league winner.
Javon Baker – New England Patriots (ADP 17.07 – WR81)
Kendrick Bourne – New England Patriots (ADP 21.02 – WR95)
Why limit yourself to just one bargain-basement Patriots wide receiver when you can have two? In reality, based on their current ADP, nearly the entire New England receiving corps could make this list:
| Player | Current ADP | Positional Rank |
| Ja’Lynn Polk | 14.03 | WR69 |
| DeMario Douglas | 15.07 | WR74 |
| Javon Baker | 17.07 | WR81 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 21.02 | WR95 |
| K.J. Osborn | 24.03 | WR100 |
With tight end Hunter Henry being taken on average at 14.12 (TE21), there is not a single Patriots pass-catcher being drafted in the first 158 picks so far this offseason…yikes. Last year was a dumpster fire for the Pats; their 3,392 passing yards ranked 29th in the league (only 19 yards more than the Jets’ QBs managed to put together), with their 16 touchdowns through the air ranking slightly higher at 27th. Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe’s combined efforts made for New England’s second-lowest TD total this millennium (remember Cam Newton’s 2020 season?), so it’s little wonder DeMario Douglas’ overall WR68 finish on the year was enough to see him end up the team’s overall WR1.
Thankfully, 2024 is a new year, which means we have new quarterbacks in New England. Drake Maye was drafted with the third-overall pick of the draft, and veteran Jacoby Brissett is bringing the beef back to Boston, where it all began for him back in 2016. It’s likely we see Brissett start the campaign, with rookie Maye being worked in over the course of the first month. Regardless of who starts under center for the Pats in Week 1, it will be an upgrade over Jones and Zappe, with Brissett proving himself a more than capable stop-gap QB, particularly during his spells with the Colts and Browns.
Kendrick Bourne was enjoying a relatively successful fantasy season, sitting at the overall WR27 through seven weeks before an untimely ACL tear against Miami in Week 8. Despite his season ending in October, Bourne still led the team in total targets as late as Week 15, eventually being overtaken by DeMario Douglas. Bourne’s role in the passing game is secure, and as the most experienced member in the wide receiver room, he should see his fair share of targets, especially as rookies Polk and Baker acclimatize themselves to the NFL. His 17-game pace would have given him a line of 78/864/8…a trajectory that would have matched his early-season form and seen him finish as the overall WR27. Currently being taken as the WR95 in drafts, there’s no scenario in which I don’t see him returning value on his draft capital.
Second-year wideout Pop Douglas and fourth-round rookie Javon Baker will likely battle it out for targets behind Bourne and second-round pick Ja’Lynn Polk out of Washington. With Douglas likely to be working predominantly out of the slot, it’s hard to envisage any real upside – the exact opposite can be said for Baker, the exciting deep-ball threat out of UCF. Baker broke out in a big way in his final year as a college receiver, notching up 1,140 yards and seven touchdowns in just 13 games with the Knights. He was the only player in college football with 50+ receptions to have an average yards per catch over 20, recording an eye-watering 21.9 YPR on his 52 grabs. Look for Baker to become a prominent part of the New England passing game as the season progresses, and emerge as a major upside receiver once Drake Maye settles in as the starter in this offense.
Not sure you can be more wide open than Javon Baker was on this EIGHTY-SIX yard breakaway touchdown.
📺 ABC pic.twitter.com/6rEvNXDs8g
— Big 12 Conference (@Big12Conference) October 21, 2023
Michael Wilson – Arizona Cardinals (ADP 15.07 – WR73)
Zay Jones – Arizona Cardinals (ADP 18.08 – WR86)
One of the more intriguing camp battles is set to play out in the sun-scorched planes of Arizona, as second-year wideout Michael Wilson and freshly acquired Zay Jones go toe-to-toe, in a bid to become the Cardinals WR2 behind first-round rookie pick Marvin Harrison.
Drafted in the third round, Wilson had a relatively disappointing rookie season despite a lack of any serious competition for targets. In a wide receiver room that consisted of Marquise Brown, Rondale Moore, Greg Dortch, and Zach Pascal, Wilson’s path to being the number-two behind Hollywood was as clear as any rookie could have hoped for…but with Kyler Murray on the PUP to start the year, it was always going to be a bumpy ride.
First, let’s look at the positives. Wilson did end the season as the WR2 in Arizona, behind only the aforementioned Hollywood Brown, who is now with the Kansas City Chiefs…um, that’s about it for my list of “pros” I’m afraid. While Wilson was the second-best fantasy wideout on the Cardinals, that was only good enough to see him finish as the overall WR60. In his 13 starts, he only commanded a 14% team target share (that figure being inclusive of a three-week spell without Brown, who was absent with a heel injury), and his pedestrian 7.3 FPPG was inflated by a monster Week 6 performance in San Francisco. A total of 51.4% of his fantasy points for the season came in just three games. Removing those, his average points per game drops to a waiver-wire-worthy 4.6.
In the other corner, standing at 6’2” and weighing 200 lbs., Zay “The Spot Start” Jones! After a two-year stint in Jacksonville, Jones now finds himself in the desert on a one-year, $2.25 million deal. His final year in Florida was one to forget for Zay…in a season marred by injury, the Spot Start lived up to his nickname, taking the field for only half of the Jags’ regular season games, ending with only 34 receptions for 321 yards and two touchdowns. Let’s not forget that this is a guy only one year removed from an overall WR26 season that saw him finish top 10 at the position four times, and averaged just under 10 targets per game over the final four weeks of last season. On the Jags last year, Jones was part of an offense where he operated in a WR2a/2b situation with Christian Kirk, behind alpha wideout Calvin Ridley and target hog TE Evan Engram, finishing the season as WR86 despite playing only nine games. Jones is currently being drafted in the 18th round, coincidentally as the overall WR86. With his situation in 2024 closely mirroring his final year in Jacksonville, I don’t see how Jones doesn’t vastly outperform his current ADP.
We already know that with his talent and draft capital, Harrison is the defacto WR1 on this roster, with Wilson and Jones fighting over whatever scraps remain after Big Marv and superstar tight end Trey McBride get theirs…but with a full season of a healthy Kyler Murray very much in the cards for the Cardinals, there will be opportunities for one of these pass-catchers to be fantasy relevant. Wilson may see some boom-bust games, but Jones should be the guy to offer more stability at the position…if he can stay on the field.
Running Backs
Alexander Mattison – Las Vegas Raiders (ADP 17.10 – RB64)
Alexander Mattison, my name is Alexander Mattison, and there’s a thousand yards I’m gonna run, that’s why I was drafted RB21…and I am not throwing away my shot!
After four years of patiently playing understudy to Dalvin Cook, Alexander Mattison was finally given the opportunity he (and dynasty managers) had been waiting for – the chance to take the lead role in the Minnesota backfield, and at long last see his name in lights! Cook had departed for New York, leaving behind the 264 rushing attempts and 56 targets from his RB10 2022 season. With the Vikings bringing back only fifth-round rookie Ty Chandler and adding “The Gasman” Myles Gaskin (who at this stage of his career was running on fumes), Mattison’s path to a significant workload was laid out for all to see.
To start the season, that path appeared to be made out of gold, lined by luscious, flowering trees, ripe with fantasy points and rushing opportunities. Mattison finished as an RB2 or better five times in the opening six weeks, enough to see him sit as the overall RB18 at the time. Despite a pedestrian 3.9 Y/A, Mattison was seeing work, his 81.2% share of rushing attempts was the sixth highest in the league. The trust from the coaches was there, as were the snaps and opportunities – the only thing keeping Mattison out of potential RB1 territory were the touchdowns, and with that level of work on a high-powered Vikings offense, it was only a matter of time right…right?
Much like Alexander Hamilton, Act II didn’t end well for the Vikings’ running back. Mattison saw his rushing attempts plummet to 48.8% in Weeks 7-18, splitting the backfield with running mate Ty Chandler, who despite being only slightly more efficient (4.5 Y/A vs. 3.9 Y/A), actually managed to find the end zone. As highlighted on his 2024 outlook in the UDK, Mattison became only the second running back in the last 20 years with 180+ carries on a season to score zero touchdowns, simultaneously ranking in the third percentile on fantasy points per opportunity…woof. So why should 2024 be any different?
Somewhat shockingly, Minnesota did not re-sign Mattison after his history-making season, and he was released on March 4th, landing a one-year, $2 million deal with the Las Vegas Raiders two weeks later. He enters Sin City as the clear number two behind fantasy playoff darling Zamir White who finished as the RB18 over the final four games of the year, despite having only had 20 total carries the previous 13 weeks. After Josh Jacobs’ season-ending injury, White was named the starter ahead of the Raiders’ Week 14 63-21 blowout against the Chargers and grasped the opportunity with both hands, seeing 83% of the team’s rushing opportunities for the remainder of the season. This may sound like a fairly damning indictment on Mattison’s chances of fantasy relevance, and you’d be right to think so, but the sixth-year veteran offers far more to this offense than Ameer Abdullah and (the now departed) Brandon Bolden did at the tail end of the regular season.
Mattison has just turned 26 years old and has seen only 584 carries in his first five seasons in the National Football League…there’s plenty of tread on those tires. Despite being drafted back in 2019, he is only 15 months older than White who was taken in the fourth round a full three years later. Still on his rookie deal, the Raiders and Antonio Pierce will undoubtedly stand firm with White as the starter to begin the season – but with only day-three draft capital and almost zero money invested in him, there may be little hesitation in giving Mattison a larger share of the workload should White’s performance to start the season not match those from the end of last year.
The Raiders have done very little thus far in the offseason to bolster their offensive weapons, with first-round tight end Brock Bowers being the only name of note added to the ranks. Veteran wideout Michael Gallup inked a one-year deal and the team drafted sixth-round rookie pass-catching back Dylan Laube out of New Hampshire…that’s it. Mattison should carve himself out opportunities in this backfield, giving him an excellent shot at returning value on his current ADP of RB64 – he may even score a touchdown this season if we’re lucky…just you wait!
Khalil Herbert – Chicago Bears (ADP 16.04 – RB57)
The Chicago Bears are arguably one, if not the most improved teams on offense heading into the 2024 season. Fresh off his overall WR8 season, the evergreen Keenan Allen found a new home in Illinois after Chicago sent a fourth-round rookie pick to the Chargers in exchange for his services. DJ Moore, last season’s WR6 saw another new face join him in the wide receiver room with highly-touted University of Washington rookie Rome Odunze being selected at the 1.09 in April’s draft…oh yeah, and they drafted some other guy in the first round to replace Justin Fields after he was traded to the Steelers…Caleb something.
The additions of Keenan, Odunze, and Caleb Williams in the passing game weren’t the only offseason moves made by the Bears’ front office. After a fourth consecutive season finishing up as an RB2 for fantasy, D’Andre Swift joins the rushing corps at Soldier Field, signing a three-year $24 million deal in March’s free agency. Following the money, it’s almost too easy to declare Swift the de-facto alpha rusher heading into 2024 – his base salary of $3.89 million is almost double that of fellow backs Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson combined…but being a big-money acquisition out of Philadelphia at the running back position doesn’t always equal success on a new team, just ask Miles Sanders.
I’m not even remotely suggesting Khalil Herbert will pull a Chuba Hubbard and end the season as the lead back for the Bears, but Swift’s switch to Chicago does have an air of familiarity about it. As highlighted in Swift’s 2024 outlook in this year’s UDK, running backs playing alongside rookie QBs average over 250 opportunities and deliver low-end RB2 production for fantasy football. Swift has only come anywhere near that mark once in his career – last season with the Eagles – where he ran a career-high 229 times, 78 more than his previous mark of 151 back in 2021. Despite the huge uptick in usage, Swift posted the lowest FPPG of his four-year stint in the league at 11.2 points per game, as well as his lowest overall fantasy finish, ending up as the RB23 on the year. It would be harsh to suggest Swift is on a decline, but his efficiency dropped significantly in the back half of the season for the Eagles. His 82 rush attempts between Weeks 12 and 17 were the 14th most in the NFL, but a dip in Y/A and just one solitary trip to the end zone saw Swift sit as the overall RB30 during that six-week spell – a disappointing end to the year after being the RB7 through his first 11 games.
In that same spell and with only 65% of the workload Swift saw, Khalil Herbert ranked the RB32, posting an impressive 5.2 Y/A – the seventh-highest mark for RBs with 50+ carries over those six games. Fantasy managers who started him in their playoffs will take little convincing as to Herbert’s ability to still cut it, as back-to-back top-10 finishes saw him finish as the overall RB4 over the two games, rushing for 236 yards and two touchdowns in the process. On the three occasions he was given 18 or more carries, Herbert delivered in a big way, finishing as an RB1 each time and averaging a mighty 6.32 Y/A (side note – that’s the same number of top-12 finishes as Rhamondre Stevenson and two more than Zamir White – both being drafted as RB2s). Presented with opportunity, Herbert has proven he has week winning upside at the position – the only question is if and when he may get that chance to make an impact. With a current ADP of RB57, he’s a name to keep a very close eye on.
Kimani Vidal – Los Angeles Chargers (ADP 14.10 – RB52)
Ok, this one may be cheating slightly given Vidal’s current ADP sitting just on the wrong side of “undrafted” at the 14.10…but as that has only shifted from a late-fifteenth rounder in the last fortnight, I’ll let it slide. The hype train on the sixth-round pick out of Troy is starting to gain some steam, and I fully expect his ADP to keep going up as we edge closer to the season…but is it merited?
Having already (in my opinion at least) secured the coveted Nickname of the Year Award for the upcoming 2024 Footies, Vidal Sassoon will look to make a similarly significant impact on the field as he has so far off it. Taken as the 17th running back overall in this year’s NFL draft, Vidal couldn’t have asked for a better landing spot as a day-three pick, finding a home on Greg Roman’s sure to be High-T Chargers offense, behind only J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards on the depth chart. JK2L should be ready to start the year after missing pretty much the entire 2023 season following an Achilles tear in Week 1, but having only played 24 total games so far in his injury-strewn career, it’s hard to fully trust Dobbins as he enters year four as a pro – it’s also worth noting if Dobbins is not fully healthy, he will only carry a $50k cap hit should the Chargers decide to cut him.
Another ex-Raven fighting it out for snaps in L.A. is the Gus Bus, Gus Edwards. At 29 years old the veteran proved there was still some fuel in the tank with a five-week spell in 2023 that saw him finish as an RB1 four times, scoring eight touchdowns in the process. While a delight for fantasy managers, Edwards’ perspicacity to find the end zone masked his overall inefficiency as a runner. Each one of his seven RB2 or better finishes was bolstered by at least one touchdown, and not once by more than 80 yards on the ground. His 12 receptions on 13 targets highlight his lack of involvement in the passing game, further damaging his credentials for a shot at fantasy relevance this coming year.
With Dobbins and Edwards as his main competition, the path for Vidal to see work in his rookie year is fairly clear. He may not have come from one of the most notable collegiate programs at Troy, but 1,661 rushing yards in his senior year ranked second in the entire country. Paired with his 92 receptions over four years, Vidal is a very interesting prospect in year one.
For now, we’ll have to wait and see if Vidal will gel with the offensive scheme and get the volume fantasy managers are hoping for. If he can brush up on his pass protection, that may just be enough to keep him away from the fringe of this Chargers roster. With six backs in the room at the time of writing, Vidal managers should have no concerns about him being cut as the team starts to trim their depth before submitting their final 53-man roster. He is very much worth a speculative late-round flyer or post-draft waiver add for re-draft leagues this season.
Q4 8:13 | 🧢 trick‼️
Kimani Vidal makes it touchdown No. 3, taking the direct snap 69 yards to the house.
🐺: 0
⚔️: 37#RiseToBuild | #OneTROY ⚔️🏈 pic.twitter.com/mPYU77DNGj— Troy Trojans Football 8x⚔️ (@TroyTrojansFB) October 7, 2023
Tight Ends
The majority of fantasy leagues require only one tight end to be started at any given time, and are better suited to streaming the position should managers elect not to draft Kelce, LaPorta, Andrews, or McBride with an early-round pick. There are however two guys I want to highlight as we enter draft season, players who could find themselves entering the TE1 conversation come the end of the season.
Tyler Conklin – New York Jets (ADP 16.01 – TE23)
Conk! Conk! Let’s kick things off with Mr. 87 Targets himself, the New York Jets’ Tyler Conklin. Honestly, I have nothing but positives to say about Conklin and his play style. This is a guy who somehow finished as the TE20 last season despite being on arguably the worst offense in the league and recording zero touchdowns. Sure, TE20 doesn’t sound great, but for those of us with eyes who had the pleasure of watching Zach Wilson and Trevor Siemian play quarterback for the Jets, it’s a minor miracle Conklin finished as high as he did.
Conk ended the season with 87 targets (TE13), 61 receptions (TE11), and 621 yards (TE13), the only problem…touchdowns. Conk laid goose egg after goose egg as the Jets struggled to find the end zone through the air. Stud wideout Garrett Wilson and pass-catching specialist Breece Hall accounted for seven of Gang Green’s 11 receiving touchdowns, with Allen Lazard, C.J. Uzomah, Randall Cobb, and Jason Brownlee sharing the rest. Conklin was the only tight end in the top 36 not to have a score on the year, alongside Noah Fant, who only played just 55%(!) of the snaps in Seattle.
His 10.2 YPR were in the same bracket as positional superstars Trey McBride (10.2) and Sam LaPorta (10.3), with his 621 receiving yards good enough to see him rank second amongst all Jets pass-catchers. The bottom line is that Conklin is a good, not great tight end, but with Aaron Rodgers hopefully playing more than four snaps this season, there is real hope for Conkin heading into 2024. At the 23rd tight end off the board, Conklin should find his way into lineups sooner rather than later.
Greg Dulcich – Denver Broncos (ADP 20.08 – TE35)
If we were drafting tight ends based on their ability to win a Weird Al Yankovic lookalike contest, I’m taking Dulcich with the 1.01. Unfortunately for us, his luscious locks count for very little in fantasy football, which requires players to be on the field to score points, and that’s something Greggy D hasn’t been too good at since entering the league as a promising third-round pick in 2022.
When Dulcich does play, he’s one of the most talented and exciting young tight ends in the league. His shortened rookie campaign saw him finish as a TE1 six times in only 10 appearances on the year. Debuting in Week 6 against the Chargers, Dulcich would rank as the TE10 over the next 10 weeks, missing Denver’s final regular season game with a hamstring injury – the talent is there, he just needs to stay healthy.
Injuries have played a prominent part in Dulcich’s short career. His impressive debut outing, which also saw him get in the end zone, was delayed due to starting the season on the IR due to a grade two hamstring strain suffered in camp – the same injury that saw him placed on injured reserve not once, but twice in 2023, essentially wiping out his entire season. Worrying signs when a pass-catching tight end entering year three has had more trips to the IR (three) than the end zone (two).
Denver targeted the tight end position at 31st best (a.k.a. second worst) on 12.5% of passes in 2023, perhaps unsurprising given Adam Trautman, who is predominantly a blocking TE, was their leading receiver at the position. Looking to 2024, Russell Wilson is gone, replaced by first-round rookie Bo Nix, who looks set to win the starting job straight off the bat, ahead of Jarrett Stidham and recently acquired Zach Wilson.
This is the same guy that Broncos Head Coach Sean Payton referred to as his “joker” in 2023 – with a lack of any significant talent in the wide receiver room, and in the backfield – there could be some additional usage for Dulcich in this offense akin to how Taysom Hill is used in New Orleans.
Rostering a player who currently sits just inside the first 20 rounds of drafts and has played in only one-third of potential career games may not be the soundest strategic move, but with Dulcich’s talent and potential upside, it’s like Weird Al said – Dare to be Stupid.