Projecting NFL Draft Capital for 2025 Prospects Using MockDraft Database
In the week leading up to the NFL Draft, the steam of players “rising up draft boards” and buzz from media members fails only in comparison to one other entity you might be battling with on your timelines…
Confirmation bias.
Yep, we’re all guilty of it and perhaps Twitter is the worst place brimming with a hoard of people sharing their “I told ya so!” or a random quote tweet of something they sent months ago.
The NFL Draft capital is the piece of the puzzle we’ve been speculating for months and for good reason. For every locked-in 1st round pick like Cam Ward, there are players such as Troy Franklin who are hyped in the fantasy space, routinely mocked in a certain places, and then we are left scratching our heads after he fell to the 4th round in the NFL Draft.
How do we navigate the next few days? Consider someone’s projected draft capital…
Editors Note: Check out Andy, Mike, and Jason’s exclusive rookie rankings and updated Rookie Mock Drafts found only in the Dynasty Pass, part of the UDK+ for 2025.
MockDraft Database: A Data Point to Consider
Leading up to the NFL Draft, one of my go-to resources that I check almost daily is NFL MockDraft Database (referred to as MDB in this study). The crux of the website is indexing mock drafts and big boards from across the industry. The Athletic recently did an excellent piece talking about how NFL teams pay attention to these mocks. Here are a few of my favorite quotes:
- Cincinnati Bengals coach Zac Taylor said media mocks have been “in every draft room I’ve been in since 2012.”
- Several GMs — including Seattle’s John Schneider, the Los Angeles Rams’ Les Snead and Carolina’s Dan Morgan — said their analytics departments monitor media mock drafts, inputting them into in-depth databases that help with the monitoring of trends. The analytics officials — Snead good-naturedly referred to the Rams’ as “nerds” — then produce a report from those findings and relay them to the front office as another source of information.
- Morgan said Panthers VP of football analytics Eric Eager (former PFF guy)pulls from about 20 different media mock drafts
- Snead suggested that in early mocks, reporters might be doing a favor for an agent by including that agent’s player prominently in a first-round mock.
While there is a large degree of speculation of how valuable some of these mocks are, it can be something to build into your process. I’m not talking about perusing a few of your favorites (Daniel Jeremiah, Dane Brugler, Peter Schrager) but rather aggregating a number to work from to act as a “proxy for draft capital”. Final draft capital gives us one number to consider but where someone was projected to go before the NFL Draft is another data point worth holding onto. It’s not perfect but it’s also not something to be ignored.
I highly recommend J.J. Zachriason’s Finding a Fantasy Football Edge with Mock Drafts episode on his Late Round Podcast where he dove into the data for MDB going all the way back to 2016 for RBs and WRs. I went on his Late Round Perspectives podcast in early March and we were able to discuss the pros and cons of this method. I also gathered the data for QBs and TEs to compare over the last decade.
History of the NFL Draft: Compare & Contrast
For this article, I will “bucket” players from each position based on their MDB number and compare with prospects who also had a similar final MDB number before the actual NFL Draft. The goal is to see players across the last decade who were in a similar position (big board-wise) before the NFL Draft. We can make some assumptions about how the NFL felt but it is vital to see that history is NOT the only way we should be comparing these players.
You’ll see stats like “x% of QBs have busted over the last decade” and often that data is used to support what will happen in the future just because that player happens to be a QB fitting that same criteria. However, stats like these are orthogonal to someone’s performance in 2025. In other words, it is statistically independent and does not influence their actual performance. There is ZERO correlation between the two points. It is a fun data point and yet it does not carry the weight and significance to a player’s future outcomes like we think it does.
We have “buckets” to group players into because it is helpful for our brains to process. We crave order, meaning, and love connecting the dots, even when it is irresponsible (statistically speaking) to do so. Dear lord, we love playing connect-the-dots as fake football managers for our fake teams. But every player has hundreds of buckets.
Cam Ward, for example, fits into a number of “identifying buckets” such as No. 1 overall picks, 1st round QBs, and Titans QBs, to name just a few. All of these identifiers tell us who Cam Ward is and who other QBs are that we can group him with. Helpful? Sure. But NONE of those categories affect Cam Ward’s actual performance on an NFL field. The fact the Titans have tried to find a franchise QB since Steve McNair does not change Cam Ward’s trajectory.
Rich Barnes-Imagn Images
If I could boil this down to one key point, it is this: there is a huge difference between statistics being descriptive (here’s what happened last year in this situation) and prescriptive (here’s what could happen in the NFL). I share that all the time with our podcast listeners and yet, I am just as guilty as anyone trying to say this means that for the future.
I’ve penned a number of NFL Draft-related articles over the last two months if you want to reference anything for some last minute studying.
- NFL Combine Research: A Summary of What Matters
- 6 Tips to Crush Your Dynasty Rookie Drafts
- SuperFlex Rookie Mock Draft
- Top-30 Visits for NFL Draft Prospects: A Decade’s Worth of Data
Last note: keep in mind the dangers of mock drafts.
There is groupthink galore! Every one is copying off each other’s papers. Some are NFL mock drafts and others have a fantasy bend. We all love playing pretend GM which is the beauty and glory of fantasy football: it’s just plain fun. We like to evaluate our team’s strengths and weaknesses and forecast what players could help fill voids on the team. If you’ve been attached to your NFL team for years, there are likely a lot of holes you can identify. I wrote an article a while back entitled NFL Draft Headlines & MisInformation: How to Sort Through the Stink if you want more details on how to navigate this week.
Quarterbacks
For each position, I will separate the players into “buckets” and group them with prospects over the last decade.
For a full write-up on these QB prospects including our scouting notes from film and dynasty rankings thoughts, we recently published Borg & Betz’s QB Scouting Notes.
Cam Ward: Top of the MDB Boards
Dating back to 2016, here are the QB prospects who either were ranked #1 on MDB or were selected No. 1 overall (Baker Mayfield). With Cam Ward currently a lock to go No. 1 overall to the Titans (-20000), there isn’t much discussion needed here. Outside of aging Calvin Ridley and Tony Pollard, this is a pretty barren group (except for his guy Treylon Burks!) Who knows if Brian Callahan will be around? Over the last decade, among 35 QBs taken in 1st Round of NFL Draft, 16 had a new head coach in Year 2 (46%) and 19 had a new play-caller in Year 2 (54%). Continuity matters in a QB’s development especially with a player like Ward who plays with DGAF energy every snap. Expect enough rushing 20-25+ yards to knock on the door of top-15 status in Year 1 if they let him roam free and make plays (ala Jayden Daniels) instead of trying to fit him into a system. In SuperFlex drafts, he shouldn’t fall past 1.04/1.05.
Shedeur Sanders & a Wide Range of Outcomes
I gave an extensive look at Shedeur Sanders in his Rookie Profile in mid-February if you want a deeper dive and some of the film clips and the specific games I reviewed. But if we take out the noise of “what should the NFL do with Sanders” and “this is what we think will happen”, we are left with only a handful of teams based on that 100% hit rate top-30 visit + workout formula below. The glaring omission here is the New Orleans Saints, who are the current betting favorite to take Sanders. There are a couple of other scenarios if you are willing to sit with this data long enough.
After combing through a decade of data…
Every 1st Round QB* over the last decade had a publicly known top-30 visit OR workout with the NFL team that drafted them.
Here is where we currently are at with Shedeur. pic.twitter.com/5ZnP6msADK
— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) April 16, 2025
Recent MDB history gives us the nightmare scenarios of Will Levis, Malik Willis, or Drew Lock falling out of the 1st round. When you mix in a relatively weak draft class with Sanders’ production and precision passing, there will be an NFL team that envisions him as their heir apparent at QB. On the Dynasty Podcast, we discussed his floor as a passer but raised concerns of his fantasy ceiling due to the lack of rushing. In our first rookie mock draft in the Dynasty Pass, Sanders went at the 2.05 in a 1QB league. In SuperFlex, he likely slides in as a mid 1st rounder. Depending on your strategy and team needs, Sanders is not a must-target if you are looking for fantasy upside at the QB position and would prefer selecting the next best RB/WR on your board.
Dart, Milroe, & Shough- Good Luck
For the “why don’t they just trade up into the back of the 1st round to take a QB” hive… We have just a few instances of teams accomplishing that trade feat for a QB in recent history 2010: Tim Tebow (DEN) 2014- Teddy Bridgewater (MIN) 2018- Lamar Jackson (BAL). Mock Drafting is fun… but the 10,000 mocks you simmed don’t take into account real GMs that value these late 1st round picks and can sniff out QB-needy teams QB is the one position where if you like a guy as a top-10 guy, you aren’t playing chicken later just to get “value”.
This “bucket” had a wide range of outcomes and honestly I probably made it too large but these three QBs are all over the map in mocks. Keep in mind the recent names (Hooker, Ridder, Howell) that all dropped dramatically as mocks were assuming teams would trade up for them in the 1st or snag them in the 2nd round of the NFL Draft. We could get a repeat of 2022 when the rest of the QBs behind Kenny Pickett fell dramatically and the NFL responded by showing that they didn’t think those QBs were franchise-level starters.
Jaxson Dart‘s 53% play-action rate is absurd considering the NFL average in 2024… HALF THAT: 26.2%. There is a difference from someone drafted in the 1st round of the NFL Draft and how it translates to fantasy football. His scramble rate of 9.5% and average of 6.87 yards per scramble is certainly enticing if he is going to run like that at the next level.
We talked up Milroe on the Dynasty Podcast this week as someone we’re willing to take a shot on given his rushing upside. The Browns would be a juicy landing spot for him to be paired with Travis Hunter. In my research, I found a plethora of Day 2 QBs who were actually undervalued in SuperFlex. The top guys get pushed up but it feels like we don’t know what to do with the next tier of QBs.
Louisville QB Tyler Shough received a ton of media buzz within the last week based on the parade of top-30 visits he participated in: NYG, CLE, SEA, PIT, IND, NYJ, LV, and NO. Whew. In fact, it actually intuitively makes more sense that a player projected to go later in the draft would have more teams interested given there are more opportunities to take him on late Day 2 or Day 3. I’m not buying this late Round 1 surge of interest with Shough. Teams don’t suddenly adjust their boards but rather solidify their evaluations. In fact, here are the 1st round QBs with the lowest final NFL Mock Draft Database Big Board rank since 2016. Shough’s is currently at 56.
Running Backs
All Hail Jeanty
After a lackluster 2024 rookie RB class, the Boise State RB you heard about all fall is ready to become the latest 1st round RB taken in the NFL Draft. Ashton Jeanty should be thought of in the same light as Bijan Robinson where you knew he was going to be the 1.01 in dynasty rookie drafts. He seems to have top-10 on lockdown with rumors of the Jaguars taking him as high as No. 4 overall. This is pretty good company to be in.
What do we do with Hampton? He’s routinely being placed with the Broncos at 20th overall but his MDB is strong enough to overcome even a slight slip into the late 1st round or early 2nd round. Cook and Guice were the only ones who were NOT selected in the first round.
Henderson: Sneaking Into Round 1?
This is an interesting mix of players who all sat right on fringe 1st round status heading into the NFL Draft. The Lions shocked everyone taking Gibbs at 12th overall while the majority of this list ended up in 2nd round. Regardless, Henderson should warrant a top-5 rookie draft ranking and we currently have him as our 3rd overall player.
Early Day 2 Picks
Count me in on Quinshon Judkins. He has the production profile and combine times to climb in the actual NFL Draft. His early breakout age (18.9) and sneaky passing work (highest TPRR in this class) should not be overlooked. If he is taken in the top-50 and finds himself a plush landing spot, he’s a top-6 pick in rookie drafts for me. We talked Kaleb Johnson on the pre-draft visits podcast the previous week as he met with DEN, NYG, LV, PIT, TEN, and WAS. He seems cemented as a Day 2 pick with Isaiah Spiller being the only major blemish of RBs in this bucket. In fact, this is a solid group of RBs to be in.
The Mysteries: Skattebo & Sampson
I have no idea how the NFL will view a couple of these RBs from this class. While I want to claim that Cam Skattebo belongs based on his insane receiving production profile, the NFL might not think so especially in a year with so many options at the RB position. As Yahoo’s Charles Robinson detailed, “there are some ice-cold assessments on Arizona State’s Cam Skattebo, who is landing with a thud as a late fourth/early fifth-round grade.” Mike has remained bullish on Skattebo preferring to be in on him until “the NFL tells me not to be”. Dylan Sampson was fun to watch in the scouting process but the insane wide lanes from the Tennessee offense will not translate to the NFL. He is very scheme-dependent as a man/gap runner where some place like the Chargers would benefit bringing in him to compliment Najee Harris. I’d be floored if either made it into Round 2 but if they went Round 4 or 5, it makes sense.
Best of the Rest at RB
In my research, when you survey the list of the rookie RBs drafted in the 3rd round or later of the NFL draft and where managers took them in dynasty, it might cause you to rethink your life.
- Of the 40 RBs selected since 2015 in dynasty rookie drafts, only five became RB1s in their 1st year.
- Yet, 13 of those RBs with that type of NFL draft capital (3rd round or worse) ended up as top-5 rookie picks!
If you want a follow-up on this subject, one of our writers Matt DiSorbo wrote an article: What Matters More for Rookies: Skill or Landing Spot? He wanted to take this idea a step further than just including draft capital. It’s hard to quantify “skill” or “landing spot” but in his methodology, he tries to get as close as possible using fantasy points as a metric. His findings for the two major positions were thus:
- Skill and landing spot effects are equal and opposite for RBs
- Skill is much more important for WRs.
Giddens hecks a ton of boxes to be a Day 2 pick after showing out at the combine. With an early breakout age (18.6) and some solid explosiveness combine numbers (81st), Martinez is a big-bodied back (6’0″, 217) find a good landing spot and be effective. If a heavy outside zone team (ATL, SF, HOU, MIA) comes calling, I’ll definitely take a look in the third round of rookie drafts. Tuten‘s 40-time was blazing but our research shows us combine times aren’t everything; it confirmed what his film showed: a speed freak who had the 3rd highest broken tackle rate in the class.
Wide Receivers
Top-10 WRs Waiting to Happen
When Travis Hunter goes No. 2 overall to the Browns, it will be the highest a WR has been selected in the NFL Draft since Calvin Johnson! It’s hard to argue with the draft capital and the recent turn in his WR/CB narrative. The Browns apparently are taking him primarily as a WR who moonlights as CB. This is glorious for fantasy purposes and we’d feel comfortable taking Hunter as high as 1.03 in a rookie draft if you want to shoot your shot. 94% of his snaps were out wide and his gaudy Heisman resumè as a WR (121 targets for 96/1258/15) speaks for itself. No other wideout among this year’s class played a higher percentage of snaps out wide. The only others in this group (Bru McCoy- 92%, Kaden Prather- 91.5%, Ja’Corey Brooks- 89.1%) are not nearly as highly regarded. It’s wild to see that Hunter played only 36 snaps (and 8 total targets) in the slot in 2024 despite being on the field more than any other human being on the planet with 1,551 total snaps. Part of that is the product of where Hunter felt comfortable with Sanders in the zone-running, shotgun scheme under new OC Pat Shurmur. As a pure athlete and arguably the best we’ve seen in a long time coming out college, please don’t take this is as “Hunter can’t play in the slot” but more “he wasn’t asked to” in 2024. In 2023, he saw over 60% of his targets in the slot adding more context to a generational college player.
McMillan was lauded for being the “safe WR” at the beginning of this scouting process but his “stock” fell after stories of his “lack” of game preparation surfaced. Call that out as pure poppycock! He joins a list of elite WRs all sitting near top-10 status and as I shared on the Dynasty Podcast, I’d be willing to take him ahead of Hunter if he goes inside the top-10 of the NFL Draft. If it’s NE, JAX, or LV, I’m bullish betting on the talent over perceived landing spot. We often discuss that targets are an earned metric. If rookies had a hard time earning targets in college, very tough to turn that switch on in NFL. In Matt DiSorbo’s classic article: What Matters More for Rookies: Skill or Landing Spot?, he found that “WR skill” is twice as strong as the landing spot. We are bad at forecasting how teams will be shaped over the coming years. Take the 2024 Jaguars for instance. Brian Thomas Jr. had one monster season at LSU and was selected 23rd overall to replace a departed Calvin Ridley. However, the opportunity was not exactly crystal clear as target earners Christian Kirk and Evan Engram stood in the way (in our minds) for Year 1. Both players not only were injured but the organization moved on in Year 2. Now it looks like overthinking it if you passed on BTJ simply because of the “immediate opportunity”. A bet on talent said “he’s going to be better than these aging vets anyway”.
Where Do We Go with Golden?
Matthew Golden is going to be a 1st round WR in the NFL Draft. Deal with it. This doesn’t jive with his production profile putting dynasty managers at the crossroads. I wrote a massive article entitled Dynasty WR Thresholds That Matter if you want a full discussion on this topic. Since 2015, WRs in their final* year of college averaged:
- Round 1: 28.1% TPRR, 3.16 YPRR
- Round 2-3: 27.8% TPRR, 2.70 YPRR
Anything sub 20 percent is not optimal when you compare it to other WRs. At its core, TPRR is a measure of efficiency; it tells us a player’s ability either to get open or be a part of the offensive scheme. We say it often: earning targets is a skill. And that skill, expressed as TPRR, has a strong correlation with fantasy relevance. Since 2006, 92% of receivers who finished as a WR2 or better (top 24) had a TPRR of at least 20%.
Round 1-3 WRs with a Final Season of <2.10 YPRR (per PFF) pic.twitter.com/fTYkZLr9uA
— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) February 21, 2025
At a certain point, the fall is too far in rookie drafts feels like stealing. Looking back at previous rookie drafts since 2015, the latest we’ve seen 1st round WRs go in dynasty rookie drafts: Phillip Dorsett (2.06 in 2015) and Kadarius Toney (2.08 in 2021). Those are not the dudes you want to be grouped with. However, this MDB list also gives us some standout all-world young WRs (Jefferson, BTJ) who you probably wished you ignored their perceived college flaws and just went all-in on the “tape” they laid down.
Mixed Bag at the End of the 1st
This bucket of WRs all found themselves at the tail end of the top-32 on most people’s boards. There are some alphas who slipped into Round 2 (A.J. Brown) and names you cry yourself to sleep at night (Terrace Marshall Jr.) remembering what could’ve been…
Let’s start with Emeka Egbuka. Tom Pelissero noted that “At this point, frankly, I’ll be surprised if Egbuka doesn’t go in the first.” Additionally, Tony Pauline appeared on a podcast this week and noted that “Egbuka’s floor is 25 to the Houston Texans.” We placed a wager as Egbuka as the 2nd WR drafted (+700) as part of our NFL Draft Prop Bets. It seems somewhat unlikely that Egbuka is WR1 off the board (though not impossible), but once you get into the 20s, it’s anyone’s guess as to who the WR2 is going to be off the board.
Depending on who you talk to, Luther Burden III is either an elite prospect, a rich man’s Malachi Corley, or somewhere in-between. He can impact the game in so many ways but it seems like that tension is starting to wear out mock drafters. I personally use mock draft consensus information from NFL Mock Draft Database and Grinding the Mocks as “another data point” in our research. It gives us a “wisdom of the crowd” perspective we can file away both before and after the NFL Draft. Burden’s stock has steadily fallen so perhaps if he does fall out of the 1st round of the actual NFL Draft he would in turn be in the mix in the later 1st round of dynasty rookie drafts. 1.04 was a bit surprising with the QB1 and numerous viable RBs on the board. Burden is currently Jason’s WR5 but Andy and Mike both have him at WR2.
No Man’s Land at WR
There are a number of wideouts who feel interchangeable at this point as Day 2 picks. If you stock piled a couple of 2nd round picks this year, congrats. This draft should have the value to find a few solid additions to your dynasty roster. Based on this “bucket”, it seems like the majority of them were “pushed” up and received earlier draft capital than their final MDB number.
We are likely much higher than consensus on Tre Harris and Jack Bech. We highlighted Harris’ production profile and film on last week’s WR Prospects episode. Bech was a Senior Bowl standout who can win as a big slot at the next level.
TCU WR Jack Bech doing Jack Bech things. pic.twitter.com/ED9uBfaXCC
— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) February 26, 2025
Slightly outside this bucket is Iowa State’s Jaylin Noel. I love me some Noel. I talked him up on the most recent Dynasty Podcast if you want a full breakdown because of his combine showing and the way he can seamlessly step into the NFL.
Because the WR position is dependent on a QB’s efficiency, “available targets” can be overrated. Your evaluation and the metrics that matter for WRs come into play even more than perceived opportunity. Can they beat ZONE coverage? Very few level up from college to the pros in this area.
Only 3 WRs posted 3.0+ YPRR vs zone in 2024:
4.05 YPRR- Tre Harris (Ole Miss)
3.13 YPRR- Jack Bech (TCU)
3.08 YPRR- Jaylin Noel (Iowa State)From production to tape, these were the 3 WRs we all ended up highest on @TheFFBallers Dynasty Pod
— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) April 23, 2025
Tight Ends
Absolute Studs
While the grouping is a mixed bag in terms of actual NFL difference-makers (as a Falcons fan, I’ll never understand Kyle Pitts > Ja’Marr Chase), the intention of NFL teams and mock drafters is quite clear: we know a 1st round TE when we see one. Since 2015, we’ve had 26 TEs taken in Rounds 1 and 2 of the draft. 22 of those teams (85%) that selected a TE had at least ONE top-30 visit or workout. The Raiders had two of the four that didn’t meet that criteria: Bowers and Mayer. For both, I honestly think each year they didn’t think either would still be on the board.
I’ve gushed about Tyler Warren multiple times including putting together a film thread of all his wildcat plays from his senior year. He seems cemented as a top-10 guy as I placed him with the Jets in our DFS & Betting Podcast “Betting Mock Draft” last week. I also made the case for Colston Loveland going in the top-10 to our listeners with NYJ, CAR, NO, and CHI all potential landing spots in the top-10.
Over the last decade, 152 different TEs were taken in rookie drafts with only seven real “hits” in rookie drafts (Hits = a single top-10 fantasy season). That is an abysmal rate. For every Brock Bowers, there is a Kyle Pitts and some looming. Often we find TEs with draft capital don’t necessarily match that within the first couple of years. Yes, we’re shooting for the moon here trying to find difference-making TEs and the reality is: not many of them exist!
Day 2 TEs: A Test of Will
This is one of the more intriguing groups I found while doing my MDB research.
Generally, the TE position is seen as a slow burn… until Brock Bowers & Sam LaPorta said Nah! However, this ends up boosting a lot of Day 2 TEs based on the “hope” they present: “If this NFL team likes him (Day 2), they must have a shot for fantasy!” Through research comparing projected draft capital from Mock Draft Database and comparing with NFL draft status, I’ve found that the TE position is a relative crapshoot.
If the fantasy community is lower on a TE AND they end up as a Day 2 pick, it’s actually a red flag. Sorry Mason Taylor.
These TEs are often drafted for multiple purposes but main one: BLOCKING. That doesn’t usually translate to fantasy success as this chart above shows. As I wrote in Identifying Breakout TEs in Dynasty, we’re looking for the tight-end that extends drives and is more likely to break off big gains and get downfield with chunk yardage plays. The Jack Doyles & Austin Hoopers of the world run 5-yard drags and fall down. Athleticism matters because we want YAC opportunities. Let production profiles for TEs have a slight edge over draft capital, in my opinion. A TE drafted on “Day 2” with a suspect production profile should not be boosted up your rookie draft boards just because of draft capital alone.
Athletic Monsters: True Wildcards
Fannin might be on the biggest wildcards and disconnects from real life football and fantasy. Harold Fannin Jr. breaks some of the spreadsheets. He posted the highest YPRR (3.74) of any TE in my database which goes back more than a decade. He laps the field compared to the next best prospects. Yards per route run gives us a solid indicator of how a TE is performing relative to his opportunity. Here are the averages over the last decade of Targets Per Route Run & Yards Per Route Run among TEs drafted:
- 1st Round TEs– 22.8% TPRR, 2.32 YPRR
- 2nd Round TEs– 22.6% TPRR, 2.05 YPRR
- 3rd Round TEs– 18.4% TPRR, 1.64 YPRR
Fannin profiles as Round 1 dominator but MDB groups him with a wide range of Day 2 prospects. Only two of the guys listed here ended up on Day 3 in the Draft but I fear we are teetering on the edge of Fannin being part of that group.
