2025 NFL Draft Props: Best Bets (Fantasy Football)
Kyle and I have taken on the NFL Draft over the last two years from a wagering perspective and spent several DFS Podcasts last offseason talking about the Draft from a prop betting perspective. Overall, this was a great learning experience and a ton of fun! We’re taking the plunge early this year and will be sure to update this article with each bet we personally make. Of course, we’ll also be talking about the NFL Draft on multiple DFS shows when the podcast returns in April, so make sure you’re subscribed on your favorite podcast platform.
The 2025 NFL Draft kicks off on April 24. As the days and weeks go by, more and more NFL Draft props will become available across a variety of books. We recommend shopping around for the best lines and prices whenever possible. You can also get alerted in our Discord if you’re a JoinTheFoot or UDK+ subscriber whenever we add to our betting card.
General Strategy and Thoughts
- Betting NFL Draft props will not make you rich – This is a relatively soft market and honestly, a bit of a niche market. Books are very willing to take on thousands and thousands of dollars (even millions at times) on NFL lines and totals because they’re extremely efficient lines and Vegas knows they’re going to win in the long term. Most books will set a limit on the amount of money you can place on a prop bet and that includes the NFL Draft.
- This market is fluid and is sure to change – Unlike NFL spreads and totals, where we may only see things shift by a point or two, the odds and values of these props will change drastically over a couple of months. We recommend viewing this process as a market and being willing to adjust as necessary. At times, it might even make sense to bet the same prop but with a different player, if you think the market has moved enough in the wrong direction.
- Build a portfolio – It’s certainly possible to win a few wagers if you’re only betting a handful, but because this market is so fluid, there’s going to be inefficiencies all over the place. For example, there might be value in a bet right now in February that no longer has value in April. Similarly, new information might become available in March that wasn’t available in February, and now the bet you just placed a month ago looks off. Don’t get take lock – adjust!
- Be sure to shop around at multiple books if you’re able – If you live in a state with legalized wagering that offers multiple books, be sure to try to find the best odds, prices, and even types of wagers that are available. Because this is a niche market, it’s difficult for books to wrap their heads around a market that might adjust day to day and week to week by the time mid-April gets here.
**Lines accurate at time of publishing**
1. First WR Drafted: Matthew Golden (+300)
Sportsbook: BetMGM
Date: 3/17/25
Analysis: We know the NFL overvalues the 40-yard dash every year, and after Matthew Golden lit up the Combine with an impressive 4.29 in the forty, he’s screaming up draft boards. NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah has Golden 14th overall on his most recent Big Board, one spot ahead of Tetairoa McMillan. While we view TMac as the WR1 in this class, at least for fantasy purposes, there’s a chance NFL teams are higher on Golden thanks to his insane performances in the CFB Playoff and the Combine. We definitely think McMillan should be the favorite here, but there’s value on this number for Golden.
2. Team to Draft Ashton Jeanty? Saints (+2700)
Sportsbook: FanDuel
Date: 3/27/25
Analysis: Jeanty’s range is Pick 6 to somewhere around Pick 12 or 13, similar to what we saw from Bijan Robinson a few years ago. The Raiders and Bears are the chalk spots for Jeanty in mock drafts, and that definitely makes sense, but we see some value in the Saints. Yes, Alvin Kamara is under contract, but he turns 30 in July and has dealt with injuries in recent seasons. There’s an obvious Boise State connection between Kellen Moore and Jeanty and earlier this off-season, Moore called Jeanty the “complete package.” The Saints RB coach was in Boise for Jeanty’s Pro Day as well. At these odds, we’ll throw a dart and hope for chaos on draft night.
3. Shedeur Sanders to be the No. 2 Pick (+650)
Sportsbook: BetRivers
Date: 3/27/25
Analysis: You can also find (+450) for the Browns to take QB with their first pick on DraftKings. We’re good with either of those prices as the market seems to have over-corrected to the Abdul Carter steam based on a recent Adam Schefter quote. While it wouldn’t surprise us at all if the Browns took Carter or Travis Hunter, there’s some value on this number. Just a few days ago, Sanders was the overwhelming favorite to be the pick, so we’re happy to “buy the dip” in the market, especially at these odds. Cleveland has major cap issues and as of late March, the only QB on their roster is Kenny Pickett. Sure, they could trade for someone (maybe Kirk Cousins?), but the simplest solution for Cleveland to get out of the Deshaun Watson mess is to reset their cap with a rookie QB deal.
4. Will Johnson Draft Position O11.5 (-150)
Sportsbook: Caesars
Date: 3/30/25
Analysis: Johnson was a consensus top-10 player in this class after a fantastic 2023 season, but he took a step back in 2024 and dealt with injuries. Because of those injuries, he’s been unable to participate any workouts this winter or spring, and as a result, his draft stock is falling. His current EDP according to GrindingTheMocks is 12.4. The 49ers (11th) is a common mock pairing, but he’s rarely mocked inside the top-10. In other words, if the 49ers pass on him, there’s a good chance he falls to the teens, which would cash the over 11.5. On most books, it’s neck and neck between Johnson and Jahdae Barron to be the first CB drafted (excluding Travis Hunter).
5. Jets First Draft Pick: Offensive Line (+200)
Sportsbook: BetMGM
Date: 4/2/25
Analysis: As of this writing, the Jets currently hold the 7th overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. This is a common Tyler Warren placement in mocks, but this is also a prime landing spot for someone like Armand Membou or Will Campbell. Additionally, there’s rumblings that the Jets are eyeing OT Kelvin Banks with this selection. Worth noting, Field Yates, Lance Zierlein and Daniel Jeremiah all had the Jets taking Membou in their most recent mocks. The price here at +200 is really appealing and worth a stab.
6. Grey Zabel to be a First Round Pick (-139)
Sportsbook: BetRivers
Date: 4/7/25
Analysis: Zabel is largely considered a top-32 player based on mocks. On GrindingTheMocks, he’s now up to 27.2 with his expected draft position. In recent mocks, Bruce Feldman had Zabel 23rd to Green Bay while Daniel Jeremiah had Zabel 16th to the Cardinals and said, “There will be quite a few teams targeting Zabel in this area of the draft.”
7. Donovan Ezeiruaku to be a First Round Pick (+150)
Sportsbook: BetRivers
Date: 4/7/25
Analysis: It’s notable that ESPN’s Jordan Reid said, “After speaking with multiple scouts this week, Boston College edge rusher Donovan Ezeiruaku is a player teams are hot after in this loaded edge rusher group…Ezeiruaku could now be picked as high as No. 15 to the Falcons or No. 18 to the Seahawks.” It seems as though this 15-20ish range is realistic for the BC Defensive Lineman, and at the same time, Daniel Jeremiah moved Ezeiraku up to 25th overall from 30th overall in his most recent Top-50. In other words, he’s probably also hearing that this player is higher on NFL boards than the public realizes. AT +150, we only need to be correct less than 50% of the time for this to be a good bet.
8. Team to Draft Tyler Warren? Saints (+1200)
Sportsbook: Bet365
Date: 4/10/25
Analysis: A bit of a hedge on our Jeanty to the Saints play from earlier this off-season, we’re fading the Sanders to the Saints hype if he falls out of the top three. Trusted Saints beat, Nick Underhill, has made some compelling notes that the team is seriously considering both Jeanty and Warren. In a recent mock he did on X, he had New Orleans taking the PSU tight end and recently shared the following video of HC Kellen Moore. At these odds, we’re happy to hedge and hope New Orleans takes one of the skill guys. You can also find Saints to draft TE with their first pick at +1000 on BetMGM, which is essentially the same bet.
Going through some video from last week. I thought this was a really interesting answer on how Kellen Moore sees the way to build his offense. pic.twitter.com/vQ3Y4e60to
— Nick Underhill (@nick_underhill) April 8, 2025
9. 7th overall pick: Kelvin Banks (+1500)
Sportsbook: BetMGM, BetRivers
Date: 4/10/25
Analysis: Banks is gaining steam as a top-15 player with his over/under going from 18.5 to 14.5 in the last couple of days. There’s rumblings that the Jets may have him higher on their board than Armand Membou, who’s the most commonly mocked player to New York. New York could certainly go with Warren or Membou, but this is a long shot bet for us at these odds.
10. Under 4.5 Cornerbacks in Round 1 (-250)
Sportsbook: Bet365
Date: 4/14/25
Analysis: There are three “locks” for Round 1 at the CB position: Travis Hunter, Will Johnson, and Jahdae Barron. We’re essentially fading two of these corners making their way into Round 1:
- Maxwell Hairston 36 on Consensus Big Board
- Shavon Ravel 38 (coming off torn ACL)
- Trey Amos 40
- Azareye’h Thomas 44 (4.56 to 4.60 40 at his Pro Day)
It’s certainly possible that one of this group sneaks into Round 1, but we find it unlikely that 2+ of this quartet is taken in the top-32.
11. Emeka Egbuka Draft Position U29.5 (-160)
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Date: 4/17/25
Analysis: This is also U28.5 (-140) on Caesars. Both lines are playable after Tom Pelissero noted on Thursday morning that “At this point, frankly, I’ll be surprised if Egbuka doesn’t go in the first.” Egbuka currently has an ADP on MockDraftDatabase of 33, but per GrindingTheMocks, Egbuka’s stock is on the rise in recent weeks (see image below). Additionally, Tony Pauline appeared on a podcast this week and noted that “Egbuka’s floor is 25 to the Houston Texans.”
12. Emeka Egbuka Second WR Drafted (+750)
Sportsbook: Bet365, DraftKings (+700)
Date: 4/17/25
Analysis: Piggy backing off our previous play, these are favorable odds for a dart throw given the uncertainty in consensus WR rankings among scouts and NFL teams. It seems somewhat unlikely that Egbuka is WR1 off the board (though not impossible), but once you get into the 20s, it’s anyone’s guess as to who the WR2 is going to be off the board. Tet McMillan’s reviews are mixed among scouts and teams while Golden’s production profile is not ideal. With all of these WR prospects having some yellow-ish flags, we think the market is overconfident in the order in which these WRs are going to be coming off the board.
13. Will Campbell First OL (-240)
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Date: 4/17/25
Analysis: Campbell is routinely mocked 4th overall to the Patriots. Barring any surprises in the top three, we fully expect him to be the pick over Armand Membou as the Patriots look to solidify the trenches under Mike Vrabel. Campbell has familiarity with offensive line coach Doug Marrone. If the Patriots happen to move out of pick 4 or a QB goes at 2 or 3 and the Pats can land Hunter or Abdul Carter, the Jaguars, Raiders and Jets are all in play to take Campbell. We definitely didn’t get the best of the number here, but we expect this to close closer to -300 or -400 as the Draft gets closer.
14. Top 10 Parlay: Will Campbell & Tyler Warren (-109)
Sportsbook: FanDuel
Date: 4/17/25
Analysis: The Patriots, Jaguars, Jets, Saints and even the Bears could be in play for Campbell should an unexpected slide happen. As for Warren, he’s routinely mocked to Indy at 14th overall, but we don’t see him lasting that long on Thursday night. Per Consensus Big Boards, Warren is the 9th overall player in the class, and there are multiple teams in the top-10 who have him on their short list – The Jets, Panthers, Saints and Bears are all in play to take the Penn State tight end.
15. U2.5 QBs in Round 1 (+260)
Sportsbook: DraftKings, ESPNBet
Date: 4/21/25
Analysis: Cam Ward is the only lock for the first round. Shedeur’s stock is falling while Jaxson Dart could be taken in Round 1 as well. Beyond those two, it’s unlikely Jalen Milroe or Tyler Shough find their way into the first 32. Adam Schefter recently wrote about some NFL Draft buzz, and said this on Milroe: “Just because Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe was invited to attend the draft in Green Bay doesn’t mean the league expects him to be picked on Thursday night. The league invites players it believes have a chance to be picked high, and even some that could still be on the board on Day 2.” In addition, Dart is now no longer attending the NFL Draft in person. While that could be for a number of reasons, the fact that he was originally planning to attend and is now no longer going to be there in person, it’s possible he slips to day two. Beyond those notes, Schefter also wrote this: “Some teams and prognosticators have predicted four quarterbacks to go in Round 1, but there are smart people around the league who believe there might only be one or two who go in the top 32 picks. There is a scenario in which Friday night could be more interesting and active for quarterbacks than Thursday night.” We’re happy to take the value here at +260 in a market that, in our opinion, should be closer to 50/50.
16. Saints First Position Drafted: Offensive Line (+225)
Sportsbook: BetMGM
Date: 4/23/25
Analysis: The Saints pick at 9 has been all over the place with OL, DL or TE (Warren) in play. There’s a lot of smoke on Mykel Williams being connected to New Orleans, but they’re picking in a range where Armand Membou or Kelvin Banks could be available. In addition, there were reports today that other linemen are in play for New Orleans. At these odds, we’ll embrace the uncertainty with New Orleans and hedge a bit off Warren and Jeanty, which obviously looks dead at this point in the process.
17. Steelers First Position Drafted: Wide Receiver (+1900)
Sportsbook: FanDuel
Date: 4/24/25
Analysis: Longshot dart here in the event George Pickens is dealt on draft night. Guys like Emeka Egbuka and Matthew Golden could be available here at 21, and the Steelers have met with both of these guys. Obviously, unlikely to hit but at these odds, we don’t need to be right very often.
18. Team to Draft Tetairoa McMillan: Jaguars (+450)
Sportsbook: BetMGM
Date: 4/24/25
Analysis: There’s plenty of smoke on Jags taking offensive skill player in Liam Cohen’s first draft. While Jeanty makes a ton of sense as the pick at 5th overall, they could also opt for the WR or trade down with Chicago and take McMillan 10th overall. This is a natural hedge off of our Matthew Golden first WR ticket.
Comments
Looking back on these……biiiiiig swing and a miss Betz