6 Tips to Crush Your Dynasty Rookie Drafts (Fantasy Football)
On the most recent Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast, we discussed some rookie draft tips & tricks to crush your drafts and give you some perspective before locking in your picks.
Andy, Betz, and myself each gave a few to file away for the next month.
In the 2025 Dynasty Pass, we are here to get you prepared for your upcoming rookie drafts:
I also recently participated in a SuperFlex Rookie Mock Draft with the FootClan offering my thoughts on the format if you want more of a strategic look at that format.
Editors Note: Check out Andy, Mike, and Jason’s exclusive rookie rankings and updated Rookie Mock Drafts found only in the Dynasty Pass, part of the UDK+ for 2025.
Create a Range of Outcomes… Now.
For each player, give a range of outcomes of where they might be drafted so you aren’t surprised. We don’t want #TakeLock. Draft Capital is a huge piece of the puzzle but perhaps you’ve never considered HOW much of a percentage. Is it 25% for you? 50%? We want to find the right blend of not over/under-reacting to someone’s draft capital in such a short window of time.
Consider that months of preparation and prospect analysis can be emotionally affected within a three-day span.
We can input “projected draft capital” now using a “wisdom the crowd” approach. You can use consensus mock drafts from places such as NFL Mock Draft Database and Grinding the Mocks to give you a ballpark of projected draft capital. There is an element of groupthink/copying off people’s papers that occurs but it is a data point worth filing away.
Case in point Troy Franklin from last year. In the early scouting process, we loved his tape from Oregon with big plays and his afterburners being on display. None of us thought 16 other WRs would be drafted before him.
He had quite the tumble over the process when you look at our Footballers Consensus Rookie Ranks:
- Pre-Combine: WR6
- Post-Combine: WR8
- Post-Draft: WR14
It would’ve been easy to stay with your pre-draft opinions on a player and even double-down by side stepping the draft capital by saying “well, he’s in the perfect landing spot with his college QB Bo Nix“. We need to take notice when the fantasy community (and all their Twitter takes and spreadsheets) like a player more than the NFL.
- If the fantasy community likes a player more AND they fall 30+ spots in draft capital, sound the alarm.
- If the fantasy community is lower on a WR AND they rise 30+ spots in draft capital, take notice.
- If the fantasy community is lower on a RB AND they rise 30+ spots in draft capital, it’s a good sign.
Start a spreadsheet with the prospect names and give some projected draft capital. Play around with the outcomes and see how that shifts your thinking and where you would take them in your dynasty rookie drafts.
RBs Will Be Bananas Once Again
Last year was an anomaly with rookie RBs. We saw the fewest total touches & yards from scrimmage from rookie RBs over the last decade. It broke a streak of 12 straight years of at least TWO rookie RBs finishing inside the top-24. Apart from Bucky Irving‘s second-half
It affected rookie drafts tremendously: only two RBs were selected in top-12 picks. That is quite rare when you compare to recent rookie draft history. Over the last eight years, here is how the four main positions were allocated based on top-24 ADP:
- QBs- 11%
- RBs- 40%
- WRs- 42%
- TEs- 8%
Your entire league needs RBs.. and so does the NFL. Consider that the price goes up for mid-to-late 1st round picks/early 2nds.
Pass-catching profiles for RBs can be the equalizer.
We had a group of 4th round RBs drafted last year that all were within 15 picks of each other. It could’ve been difficult to sort out in your rookie drafts but only one of them was a true homerun: Bucky Irving. It might’ve been difficult to ascertain it at the time as he was drafted as “Rachaad White‘s backup” and was coming off a poor showing at the combine. However, his 56 receptions in his final year should’ve spoken volumes concerning the game we play. Let the coin flips be decided by receiving work as the rest of these guys never really had a shot to break through.
Scheme fit. What type of running scheme are they involved in?Going right back to Bucky, 62% of his rush attempts were man/gap concepts according to Pro Football Focus. It felt quite well with Tampa Bay and Liam Coen’s scheme where the Buccaneers went from arguably the worst rushing offense under Dave Canales to top-5 in success rate on man/gap plays. It is not always a perfect one-to-one fit when assessing what systems players excelled in at the college level and then translating that to the pros. This excellent article from SumerSports’ Quinn MacLean was a must-read for this who want more on the subject. Here are a few teams that lean towards certain schemes:
- Inside Zone- WAS, PHI, DAL
- Outside Zone- ATL, SF, HOU, MIA
- Man/Gap- LAC, LAR, BUF, CIN
- Power- KC, IND, BAL
WR Opportunity is Myth, Bet on Talent
We look at landing spot for WRs & assume they can ascend the throne as WR1 for a team. Often, it is more a bet on opportunity/landing spot than pure talent. Keon Coleman looked like he could be Josh Allen‘s #1. Jonathan Mingo was taken in the 2nd round for the Panthers. Whoops. Twitter’s darling Laviska Shenault, anyone?
We often discuss that targets are an earned metric. If rookies had a hard time earning targets in college, very tough to turn that switch on in NFL. In Matt DiSorbo’s classic article: What Matters More for Rookies: Skill or Landing Spot?, he found that “WR skill” is twice as strong as the landing spot. It is interesting to note that none of the other variables – like QB points returning – are significant in the model. WRs more robust to landing spot than other positions: skill has a way of shining through. WRs have a better chance to get on the field early. Once there, player talent can help to demand targets, thus leading to higher fantasy production.
Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images
We are bad at forecasting how teams will be shaped over the coming years. Take the 2024 Jaguars for instance. Brian Thomas Jr. had one monster season at LSU and was selected 23rd overall to replace a departed Calvin Ridley. However, the opportunity was not exactly crystal clear as target earners Christian Kirk and Evan Engram stood in the way (in our minds) for Year 1. Both players not only were injured but the organization moved on in Year 2. Now it looks like overthinking it if you passed on BTJ simply because of the “immediate opportunity”. A bet on talent said “he’s going to be better than these aging vets anyway”.
You could also take the inverse of this argument and use 37th overall pick Ja’Lynn Polk as the case study. The Patriots traded up to get him and it was clear the roster was barren when it came to impact receivers. While Polk still fell to the late 2nd round of your rookie drafts, the argument of opportunity likely outweighed whatever assessment you made of Polk in the scouting process. In turn, Polk’s 0.38 YPRR was the worst among WRs taken in Rounds 1-3 over the last decade. He ranked dead last among all WRs in 2024 in YAC per reception, catch rate, and PFF grade. It was abysmal.
Check out the WR prospects for this year’s group and assess now the talent and skill aspect so landing spot and opportunity doesn’t take precedent come draft day.
Cashing in 3rd Round Picks
As you inch closer to your rookie draft, your 3rd and 4th round picks get more and more valuable solely on the merit of NFL Draft hype. The hit rate of these players is downright abysmal, especially at the WR position. Going back to 2015, the “hit rate” of 3rd round WRs producing at least one top-36 fantasy season in their career is below 17 %.
For every Terry McLaurin, Stefon Diggs, and Diontae Johnson taken in the third round of rookie drafts… You likely won’t be kicking yourself for not taking your shot on this year’s Javon Baker, Malachi Corley, or Dylan Laube. Chances are those 2024 rookies are buried on your bench or maybe even your league’s waiver wire right now.
Looking back at the last three years of the Fantasy Footballers Main Dynasty League, here are the only hits (or relative hits) from 3rd round picks: Kyren Williams, Khalil Shakir, Tank Dell, Chase Brown, Bucky Irving, Bo Nix, and Jalen McMillan. That might sound enticing but the reality is the hit rate is two per year. If you knew you had a 17% chance to hit, would you continue taking it? Or let someone else keep playing the lottery? There is hardly any drop off from the 3rd and 4th round picks. If your league only does 3rd, then consider the free agency pool after your rookie draft your Super Bowl. Go hard in the paint then with the opportunity cost being so much lower.
Tight End Timing: Draft Capital Ain’t Everything
Generally, the TE position is seen as a slow burn… until Brock Bowers & Sam LaPorta said Nah!
However, this ends up boosting a lot of Day 2 TEs based on the “hope” they present: “If this NFL team likes him (Day 2), they must have a shot for fantasy!” Through research comparing projected draft capital from Mock Draft Database and comparing with NFL draft status, I’ve found that the TE position is a relative crapshoot.
If the fantasy community is lower on a TE AND they end up as a Day 2 pick, it’s actually a red flag.
These TEs are often drafted for multiple purposes but main one: BLOCKING. That doesn’t usually translate to fantasy success as this chart above shows.
As I wrote in Identifying Breakout TEs in Dynasty, we’re looking for the tight-end that extends drives and is more likely to break off big gains and get downfield with chunk yardage plays. The Jack Doyles & Austin Hoopers of the world run 5-yard drags and fall down. Athleticism matters because we want YAC opportunities.
Let production profiles for TEs have a slight edge over draft capital, in my opinion. A TE drafted on “Day 2” with a suspect production profile should not be boosted up your rookie draft boards just because of draft capital alone.
Sun Tzu This Thing: Know Thyself, Know Your League
Create a list of future draft assets and compare how the rookie drafts have fared recently in your league.
Future picks can be alluring but putting actual names and a range of outcomes to these players takes you out of fantasy land.
We often see managers mistakenly label their teams as rebuilding or “must-sell” without realizing the context of league turnover and not taking advantage of windows of opportunity.
Tier-Up Your League
Create a simple list and assess where each member is: Juggernauts, Contenders, Wildcards, Rebuilds
Identify archetypes of players or positions you need: Studs for Sale, Insurance RBs, Lottery Ticket WRs, QB2/3s
Make sure you are not just honing in on ONE player/team.