ADP Rewind: QB Takeaways 2026 (Fantasy Football)
The best indicator for future success is past success. That is why, whenever I start my fantasy football research for the upcoming season, I look back at the previous season to see who succeeded or failed relative to expectations. Learning valuable lessons from the previous season and applying them to the next is very important for growing as a fantasy football manager.
With that being said, let’s rewind to last season and see what happened at the QB position.
Top-12 2025 QBS
| QBs | Pass Yards | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yards | Rush TD | FUM | Total Points |
| Josh Allen | 3,668 | 25 | 10 | 579 | 14 | 7 | 364.6 |
| Drake Maye | 4,394 | 31 | 8 | 450 | 4 | 8 | 351 |
| Matthew Stafford | 4,707 | 46 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 350.4 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 4,007 | 29 | 12 | 359 | 9 | 5 | 338.2 |
| Caleb Williams | 3,942 | 27 | 7 | 383 | 3 | 3 | 316.2 |
| Dak Prescott | 4,552 | 30 | 10 | 177 | 2 | 6 | 313.8 |
| Bo Nix | 3,931 | 25 | 11 | 356 | 5 | 4 | 304.8 |
| Jalen Hurts | 3,224 | 25 | 6 | 421 | 8 | 8 | 299.1 |
| Jared Goff | 4,564 | 34 | 8 | 45 | 0 | 5 | 297.1 |
| Justin Herbert | 3,727 | 26 | 13 | 498 | 2 | 7 | 286.9 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 3,587 | 22 | 11 | 422 | 5 | 3 | 284.7 |
| Baker Mayfield | 3,693 | 26 | 11 | 382 | 1 | 11 | 271.9 |
Last season, for a second consecutive year, only six QBs finished with 4,000 passing yards, tied for the lowest mark since 2011. Even with the 17th game added in 2021, passing totals have been down the past two seasons. However, the Ballers currently have a bounce-back season projected for QBs. Fourteen QBs are currently projected to have at least 4,000 passing yards across the Ballers’ average projections (this list assumes 17-game health for all QBs).
Baller’s Projected Average QB1 Stats
| Pass Yards | Pass TD | Rush Yards | Rush TDs | INT | FUM | Total Points |
| 4,058 | 30 | 421 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 326 |
Some of the biggest fallers last season when comparing their ADP to fantasy finish (partially due to injury) were Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, and Joe Burrow.
The best values in drafts were Drake Maye, Matthew Stafford, and Trevor Lawrence. For Maye, the Patriots took an unexpected leap as a team, leading to a Super Bowl appearance. Stafford shushed the back injury concerns that he dealt with in the offseason to become the oldest first-time MVP in NFL history. Lawrence took a jump and reminded us why he was “drafted to be great.”
Biggest Differences in ADP vs Fantasy Finish
| QB | 2025 ADP* | 2025 Finish | Differential |
| Matthew Stafford | 23 | 3 | 20 |
| Drake Maye | 18 | 2 | 16 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 20 | 4 | 16 |
| Lamar Jackson | 2 | 20 | -18 |
| Joe Burrow | 5 | 33 (tied) | -28 |
| Jayden Daniels | 3 | 33 (tied) | -30 |
*Taken from Sleeper
This year, there are a few archetypes of players and the risks associated with them in the top 12 of the Ballers’ rankings at QB.
QB1: Josh Allen
The first tier is Josh Allen, alone. He is in a league of his own, with an average ADP of 3.03. Finishing as a top two QB every year of the 2020s so far, the only question with Allen as the QB on your fantasy roster is: How early is too early to take a QB? Everybody knows how great he is, but where is the line you have to draw? When is being a weekly difference-maker at the QB position no longer worth the trade-off of missing out on other early-round skill RBs and receivers?
Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images
Mobile QBs with Injury Risk
Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, and Jaxson Dart. Mobile QBs naturally take more hits while scurrying around the field. However, these QBs can be game changers because of their rushing ability. We all remember how great Lamar Jackson has been in the past, including his 2019 MVP season, when he averaged 27.7 PPG. Jayden Daniels’ rookie season was special, finishing as the QB5. Jaxson Dart showed flashes of fantasy brilliance last year, with 58% of his starts ending as a “good game” in the Ballers’ consistency metric.
Questions Around the Offense
Questions around the Philadelphia Eagles’ offense naturally arise after the A.J. Brown trade. Will DeVonta Smith emerge as a true WR1? What will Makai Lemon’s role look like as a rookie?
Can Saquon Barkley bounce back from a relatively disappointing follow-up to his RB1 season? The biggest question for Hurts, specifically, is what the offense will look like as a whole under new offensive coordinator Sean Mannion. With the change at OC, Hurts will play under his sixth offensive coordinator as he enters his seventh season in the NFL.
jalen hurts’ offensive coordinators either make the super bowl and get a head coaching job or lose in the wild card and get fired lol pic.twitter.com/3YLCZgXLwp
— Tej Seth (@tejfbanalytics) April 1, 2026
The New England Patriots also have questions around their offense due to the A.J. Brown trade and the addition of Romeo Doubs. Last season, the Patriots’ offense lacked a true alpha receiver. They finished 20th in total team target share to the WR position at 59%, with Stefon Diggs leading the way at 21.2%. The Patriots’ offseason plan, centered around adding two primary receivers, should indicate an increase in total passing volume for Maye and the Patriots.
During the playoffs last season, Maye’s rushing totals increased in comparison to the regular season. While he only added one additional carry per game, his yards per attempt jumped from 4.4 to 6.1, leading to an average of 44.5 rushing yards per game, 18 more than the regular season. The combination of a rushing baseline and additional passing volume makes Maye one of the most valuable QBs in fantasy football.
Complete list of QBs with 3,700+ passing / 25+ tds and 350+ rushing / 4+ tds in either of their first two seasons:
Once:
Drake Maye (2025)
Kyler Murray (2020)
Deshaun Watson (2018)
Daunte Culpepper (2000)
Jeff Garcia (2000)Twice:
Bo Nix (2024 + 2025)
— Jeff Bell (@4WhomJBellTolls) June 20, 2026
The Jacksonville Jaguars have questions all over their offense this upcoming season. Who is their best receiver? How involved will Travis Hunter be on offense? Which RB is most valuable to fantasy managers this season? Almost every question about Jacksonville’s offense benefits Trevor Lawrence. Between Parker Washington, Brian Thomas Jr., Jakobi Meyers, and Travis Hunter, Lawrence will have plenty of receivers to throw the ball to. Brenton Strange is one of the Ballers’ values this season at TE, and there is no RB on the roster that is expected to demand a substantial enough workload to diminish Lawrence’s passing volume. All of this combines for what should be the continuation of the “Horse Child’s” fantasy football success after finishing at QB4 last season.
The Los Angeles Chargers underwent a coaching change, firing offensive coordinator Greg “G-Ro” Roman this offseason and replacing him with Mr. Sideline Joggers himself, Mike McDaniel. As mentioned when discussing how New York Jets OC Frank Reich ran the lowest combination of play-action and motion on the AFC East Divisional Breakdown, McDaniel ran the most motion and play-action in the NFL from 2021-2025.
Dropback Motion and Play Action rates for every 2026 playcaller over the past five seasons
– Mike McDaniel is a massive standout in both respects
– Brian Schottenheimer deserves more hype than he gets@FantasyPtsData pic.twitter.com/D4XjBXbZAX
— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) June 17, 2026
Generally speaking, running motion and play action lead to more offensive success, benefiting Herbert. Coming into training camp with a fully healthy offensive line should relieve pressure off Herbert, as he led the NFL with 3.4 sacks taken per game last season.
Caleb Williams was one of the flashiest QBs in the NFL last season. However, this was not without its mistakes. Williams had the third-lowest completion percentage in the NFL last season at 58%, only above J.J. McCarthy and Shedeur Sanders. While there are places for improvement in Williams, there is also potential for an elite statistical season for “Iceman.” The Chicago Bears have one of the best skill-position groupings in the NFL, as they are the only team with a top-12 QB, top-24 RB, two top-30 WRs, and a top-5 TE in the Ballers’ rankings.
Pocket Passers with Elite Supporting Casts
Joe Burrow, Dak Prescott, and Jared Goff. All three of these QBs have two top-20-ranked receivers for the upcoming season. The lack of rushing upside from these QBs hurts their ceilings, but all of them project to be solid options at
So with that being said, what does it take to be a difference-making QB in fantasy football? Based on last season, we are looking for 4,000 passing yards and 29 TDs through the air, while also having some semblance of a rushing baseline, with 339 rushing yards and four TDs on the ground.
| Ballers AVG | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Rush Yards | Rush TDs | INT | FUM | PPG |
| Josh Allen | 3,967 | 30 | 576 | 11 | 11 | 6 | 21.7 |
| Lamar Jackson | 3,656 | 29 | 736 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 20.0 |
| Jayden Daniels | 3,853 | 27 | 650 | 6 | 11 | 4 | 19.5 |
| Drake Maye | 4,257 | 30 | 428 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 19.3 |
| Jalen Hurts | 3,526 | 27 | 450 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 19.1 |
| Joe Burrow | 4,450 | 34 | 246 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 18.9 |
| Jaxson Dart | 3,754 | 24 | 562 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 18.5 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 4,045 | 28 | 397 | 6 | 11 | 5 | 18.3 |
| Dak Prescott | 4,567 | 33 | 167 | 2 | 12 | 5 | 18.4 |
| Caleb Williams | 4,006 | 32 | 400 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 18.3 |
| Justin Herbert | 4,114 | 29 | 374 | 3 | 11 | 4 | 18.0 |
| Jared Goff | 4,504 | 36 | 64 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 17.9 |
This year, the Ballers’ Projections suggest the average QB1 will do slightly more for your fantasy team. The projected average stats for a QB1 in 2026 are up 38 yards, one passing TD, 80 rushing yards, and one rushing TD when compared to last season’s results.
| Pass Yards | Pass TDs | Rush Yards | Rush TDs | INT | FUM | Total Points |
| 4,058 | 30 | 421 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 326 |
On average, QB1s last season played for a team with 10.7 wins. While Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes, and Baker Mayfield played on teams that finished under .500, the rest of the pack played on teams with at least 9 wins, with 8 of them making the playoffs.
This season, the average win total on BetMGM for the Ballers’ top 12-ranked QBs is sitting at 9.8, with only two QBs on teams with a win total below .500: Jaxson Dart and Jayden Daniels. Of course, there are exceptions to every rule in fantasy football, but a good tie-breaker when you are on the clock deciding which QB to take can be projected team success.
Using these numbers as benchmarks of season-long production, which QBs should you be targeting towards the end of your draft?
Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
Patrick Mahomes
Patrick Mahomes has not been a tier-one fantasy football QB since 2022. However, at his current draft cost, he does not have to return to elite fantasy QB status to be a value in drafts. The Ballers’ average projections have Mahomes just below the average QB1’s total passing metrics, with just 103 yards and one TD pass lower than the average QB1 on the season. However, their main disparity with Mahomes is his rushing ability after his ACL tear. Typically, QBs who sustain major lower-body injuries such as ACL tears are much more aware and intentional about running the ball less.
Kyler Murray is a great example of this, as he rushes the ball 25% less per game. Murray averaged 657 yards and seven TDs across a 17-game season pre-ACL, and now averages 560 yards and five TDs per full season.
The Ballers have Patrick Mahomes projected for a similar dip in rushing production, leading to a QB16 ranking. However, if there is a continuous drumbeat of good news on how well he is progressing through training camp, he is a prime candidate to outperform this ranking.
Patrick Mahomes is still eyeing a Week 1 return against the Denver Broncos 🐴
(via @YahooSports) pic.twitter.com/9KuDNhdvjL
— B/R Gridiron (@brgridiron) July 15, 2026
Tyler Shough
The New Orleans Saints‘ second-round rookie’s per-start stats from last year meet almost all of these criteria.
| QB | Pass Yards | Pass TDs | Rush Yards | Rush TDs | INT | FUM |
| Average QB1 (2025) | 4,000 | 29 | 339 | 4 | 9 | 6 |
| Shough’s 17-Game Pace | 4,261 | 19 | 329 | 6 | 9 | 2 |
Shough’s biggest flaw as a fantasy QB last season was passing TDs. His 17-game pace for passing TDs was 19. This mark was lower than every QB1 from last year, even taking into account that guys like Patrick Mahomes at QB11 missed time. However, the additions of Jordyn Tyson and Travis Etienne Jr. should significantly help Shough. Tyson’s overall F.E.L.I.X. score is at 30.73. For context, this is just below receivers such as Brian Thomas Jr. and Marvin Harrison Jr., and just above DK Metcalf and Jameson Williams.
Takeaways
Whether it is drafting a former fantasy football MVP in Patrick Mahomes or a player who showed flashes in their rookie season like Tyler Shough, my goal when drafting a late-round QB is always to aim for upside. Streaming QBs will be an option in most redraft leagues, so shooting for this year’s Drake Maye or Trevor Lawrence at the end of your draft is always worth a shot.