Fantasy Football Target Practice: The 2026 Philadelphia Eagles
As an Eagles fan, I can honestly say that the Kevin Patullo version of the offense was a dumpster fire in the context of the roster talent. Philadelphia enters 2026 with designs on establishing a brand-new identity that promises to overhaul the passing game. The trade of A.J. Brown to the New England Patriots leaves a massive 127-target vacancy at the top of the receiving hierarchy. Philadelphia hired Sean Mannion as Offensive Coordinator to architect this offensive transition from a slow, “bully-ball” isolation passing game into a highly structured, McVay/Shanahan-style wide-zone and play-action system built on pre-snap motion and tight timing.
For fantasy managers, this creates a fascinating projection environment, but there is a critical linchpin for Eagles fantasy assets. Can Jalen Hurts—traditionally an out-of-structure, boundary-throwing QB—excel in a scheme that requires rapid processing over the middle of the field? Let’s break down the passing pie and find the value.
Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
1. The Passing Pie: 2026 Offensive Volume
We are projecting a balanced, play-action-heavy passing tree of 520 total pass attempts (roughly 30.6 attempts per game). Full transparency: this is also a projected increase in pass attempts, closer to Hurts’ previous career-high 538 pass attempts in 2023. The hope is that the new offense will outperform that version.
2026 Projected Passing Pie: 520 Pass Attempts
[████████████████████████] DeVonta Smith (140 Targets)
[██████████████] Makai Lemon (82 Targets)
[████████████] Dallas Goedert (70 Targets)
[██████████] Saquon Barkley (60 Targets)
[█████████] Marquise Brown / Wicks (55 Targets)
[████████] Eli Stowers (45 Targets)
[████████] Rotational WRs/TEs/RBs (68 Targets)
The Infrastructure Foundation
Hurts will operate behind the #4-ranked offensive line in the NFL, boasting a 74.1 unit pass-blocking grade. Anchored by Jordan Mailata and Lane Johnson, this elite protection gives Hurts the clean pocket required to execute slower-developing play-action shots as a change-up to the staple rhythm and timing jabs expected in West Coast-style offenses.
An underlying factor of the new incoming scheme is the expectation of more under-center formations.
Why is this important?
Last season, the Eagles were undoubtedly better operating under center. Last season’s Week 14 loss to the Chargers was the ultimate microcosm of the difference. The Eagles’ shotgun plays outnumbered the under-center plays 29-8. However, on those 29 plays, they averaged 2.9 yards per rush and 3.4 per pass. Conversely, under-center plays averaged 22.0 yards per pass and 9.4 yards per run. The thought is that the new scheme will bring a higher percentage of under-center looks, making the offense less predictable.
Geoff Burke-Imagn Images
2. The Target Beneficiaries: Capability x Infrastructure
DeVonta Smith: The Uncontested Alpha WR1
- Expected Scheme Fit: Move “Z” / Alpha “X” (The Cooper Kupp / Puka Nacua role)
- 2026 Projection: 140 Tgts | 26.9% Tgt Share | 97 Recs | 1,310 Yds | 8 TDs | 276 FPts | ~WR5-6
The Optimism: Smith is not Puka nor Kupp in his build as a run-blocker, but he has been an elite separator and processor since college. In Mannion’s system, heavy pre-snap motion will routinely free him from press coverage, enabling Smith to maximize the offense’s timing element with his precise route-running. WR IQ is of extreme importance in West Coast-style schemes, and Smith has that in spades. The evidence is all over his tape; just look at the reel by Ian Hartitz below.
The Critique: At 170 pounds, the physical toll of intermediate, over-the-middle target volume is a major durability risk. Furthermore, Hurts has historically avoided the middle of the field; if he refuses to pull the trigger on timed crossers or in-breaking routes, Smith’s ceiling could be capped.
DeVonta Smith pic.twitter.com/OwPLKggfIA
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) April 20, 2026
Makai Lemon: The First-Round Chess Piece
- Expected Scheme Fit: Shanahan-style Slot / YAC Weapon (The Deebo Samuel hybrid)
- 2026 Projection: 82 Tgts | 15.8% Tgt Share | 56 Recs | 670 Yds | 4 TDs | 147 FPts | ~WR44
The Optimism: Drafted 20th overall out of USC in a savvy move by GM Howie Roseman, Lemon brings an elite collegiate target-earning profile and dynamic yards-after-catch (YAC) ability. Operating from the slot, he will exploit open space underneath while defenses focus on Smith and Saquon Barkley. Toughness is necessary to operate over the middle of the field (MOF), as is route-running IQ and skill. Lemon’s college metrics speak to his upside, rivaling some of the best NFL WRs in the league. If the offense and Lemon’s capabilities synergize correctly, he could blow away this projection.
The Critique: Rookie slot receivers face a steep learning curve in timed West Coast systems. Add to that an early hamstring injury in OTAs. Development of early chemistry will be extremely important here because if Hurts defaults to his scrambling habits when his first read is covered, Lemon’s rhythm-based option routes will go completely unrewarded.
| Statistic | Metric |
Class Rk/Context
|
| Recs | 79 |
Power Four Leader
|
| Rec Yds | 1,156 |
Biletnikoff Award Winner
|
| YPRR (vs. Man) | 3.05 |
Top 1% of 2026 Class
|
| YPRR (vs. Zone) | 3.22 |
Elite Tier (Prospect WRs w/ 3+ YPRR vs both Man and Zone): DeVonta Smith, Ja’Marr Chase, Jaxon Smith-Njigba
|
| Drop Rate (Career) | 2.80% |
4 Drops on 183 Targets
|
| Slot Snap Percentage | 77.00% |
464 Slot snaps vs. 226 Wide
|
| Missed Tackles Forced Rate | 26.30% |
Led Big Ten in YAC (502 Yards)
|
Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images
Dallas Goedert: The Hybrid Seam-Stretcher
- Expected Scheme Fit: Y-TE / Seam-Stretcher (The Tyler Higbee role)
- 2026 Projection: 70 Tgts | 13.5% Tgt Share | 53 Recs| 520 Yds | 6 TDs | 141 FPts | ~TE16
The Optimism: The Shanahan-McVay tree is highly lucrative for TEs who can stretch the seam. With Brown gone, Goedert is the primary big-bodied threat to box out defenders in the red zone and pick up tough third downs. We could expect Goedert’s 2025 red zone role to continue into 2026, as he and Hurts should resume that chemistry.
The Critique: At age 31, soft-tissue wear and tear is a constant threat. Additionally, the wide-zone run scheme will demand heavy blocking from Goedert, lowering his route participation rate and capping his weekly ceiling. Finally, we should expect regression in Goedert’s TDs, primarily due to the “unstickiness” of the stat, and second, Eli Stowers has “entered the chat.”
Eli Stowers: The Mackey Award Mismatch Weapon
- Expected Scheme Fit: “F” Move TE / Big Slot (The Mike Gesicki role)
- 2026 Projection: 45 Tgts | 8.7% Tgt Share | 30 Recs | 340 Yds | 3 TDs | 82 FPts
The Optimism: Drafted 54th overall, Stowers was the nation’s most productive TE at Vanderbilt, leading all FBS TEs in receiving yards (769) and winning the Mackey Award. Stowers is a converted QB who posted historic NFL Combine numbers—a 45.5-inch vertical and a 4.51-second 40-yard dash (actually faster than fellow rookie Makai Lemon). Warren Sharp highlighted an interesting stat combination; Stowers maintained 2.6 YPRR (3.1 YPRR vs Zone) with a low 11.8% of his targets at or behind the line of scrimmage. Under Mannion, he will be a matchup nightmare deployed in 12-personnel sets to exploit slow-footed linebackers.
The Critique: Stowers is a TE in name only; he is extremely raw as a run-blocker and essentially functions as an oversized receiver. Since he won’t be trusted on running downs, his snap share will be limited early in the season, relying on high-efficiency packages to generate any fantasy value. Stowers has shown self-awareness of this flaw since his second-round selection in the 2026 NFL Draft. He spoke to his need to develop his run-blocking, which, if/when he succeeds, would make him a more layered problem for defenses as a credible blocking threat.
TE Eli Stowers to the Eagles 👀
converted from QB to TE mid-2023
gained 2.6 yards per route
#1 in TE class
gained 1st down or TD on 13% of routes
#1 in TE class
6'4, 239 lbs
45.5" vertical & 11'3" broad jump
both #1 for TEs in combine history!
won John Mackey Award for…
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) April 25, 2026
Saquon Barkley: The Explosive Checkdown Outlet
- Expected Scheme Fit: Bell Cow / Checkdown Game Weapon
- 2026 Projection: 60 Tgts | 11.5% Tgt Share | 47 Recs | 380 Yds | 2 TDs | 97 FPts
The Optimism: This is where I would expect Mannion’s scheme to lean more Shanahan than McVay. Barkley is a major beneficiary of this system, which heavily prioritizes RBs in the passing game via designed screens, wheel routes, and play-action checkdowns. While his PFF receiving grade slipped to 46.8 in 2025 in the pitiful Patullo scheme, he remains a physical mismatch in space. In Mannion’s timing-based scheme, play-action will freeze second-level defenders, leaving Barkley wide open on underneath routes to turn his 60 projected targets into high-value PPR production. Stacking this on top of an expected positive regression back to the Eagles’ 2024 run-blocking prowess (76.9 PFF grade – 4th) could rejuvenate his true RB1 ceiling.
The Critique: Barkley’s target volume will be heavily dependent on Mannion’s concerted effort to design opportunities for him. Should he neglect to do so, this will be more mediocre usage of one of the team’s most explosive assets. As a fireable offense, I would bet against Mannion’s deviation from RB integration in the passing game in his scheme.
Marquise Brown / Dontayvion Wicks: Rotational Deep-Threat
- 2026 Projection: 55 Tgts | 10.6% Tgt Share | 34 Recs | 460 Yds | 3 TDs
The Optimism: One of these vertical threats will run “gravity” routes to keep safeties deep, opening up intermediate lanes. Isolated on the outside, they present weekly “boom” potential that we covet for “out of nowhere” performances in Best Ball and DFS formats.
The Critique: In a highly consolidated target tree, the WR3/4 in this offense is largely a clear-out decoy with volatile fantasy output.
3. Target Projection Summary
| Player | Pos | Tgts | Recs | Yds | TDs | Target Share (%) |
| DeVonta Smith | WR | 140 | 97 | 1,310 | 8 | 26.92% |
| Makai Lemon | WR | 82 | 56 | 670 | 4 | 15.77% |
| Dallas Goedert | TE | 70 | 48 | 510 | 3 | 13.46% |
| Saquon Barkley | RB | 60 | 47 | 380 | 2 | 11.54% |
| Eli Stowers | TE | 45 | 30 | 340 | 3 | 8.65% |
| Hollywood / Wicks | WR | 55 | 34 | 460 | 3 | 10.58% |
| Rotational Players | Various | 68 | 38 | 370 | 5 | 13.08% |
| Total Team | – | 520 | 350 | 4,040 | 28 | 100.00% |
4. Fantasy Strategy
Draft DeVonta Smith as a WR1: He is being drafted as a mid-tier WR2 but has an incredibly realistic path to a top-8 fantasy finish under this new, hyper-consolidated volume.
Anchor with Saquon Barkley: May the scheme change forever be in Barkley’s favor! Behind an offensive line poised to return to dominance and with high-value checkdowns, Barkley is a priority asset in redraft and dynasty for competitors, thanks to his explosive upside in space.
Stash Makai Lemon in Redraft: His YAC capability and toughness in the MOF fit Mannion’s slot requirements perfectly. He is a priority late-round target who could emerge as a weekly PPR flex play.
Dynasty Target – Stowers: In redraft, snap share blunts any upside for Stowers. However, in dynasty leagues, his athletic profile and Mackey-winning receiving capability make him an elite “buy” who will eventually inherit the Dallas Goedert role.