AFC West Divisional Podcast Recap For 2026 (Fantasy Football)
For years, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs treated the AFC West like their personal playground. I mean, a mind-boggling 35-3 record against divisional rivals? Just completely ridiculous. But last year? The wheels didn’t just wobble… they completely flew off. The mighty Chiefs and the Raiders both absolutely face-planted to a brutal 1-5 in the division, while the Broncos and Chargers cruised to a dominant 5-1. Now, heading into the 2026 season, the entire Wild West is at a massive crossroads. On today’s episode, Andy, Mike, and Jason are diving headfirst into the division to break down all the off-season fireworks, schematic shifts, and drop our official predictions.
Buckle up, it’s time for the AFC West preview!
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Let’s Get Divisional – AFC West
Denver Broncos (14-3)
Player Additions: WR Jaylen Waddle
Player Subtractions: None. The Broncos are the ONLY TEAM to return 100% of their carries & targets from 2025
Rookies: RB Jonah Coleman (Round 4) & TE Justin Joly (Round 5)
2025 Offensive Ranks:
| PPG | YPG | Pass Att | Pass Yards | Rush Att | Rush Yards |
| 15 | 12 | 612 | 3,931 | 456 | 2,018 |
Let’s talk about some serious statistical wizardry. In one-score games, the Broncos finished a ridiculous 11-2 last year. Normally, one-score games are the most volatile, luck-driven stat in football. Beginning in Week 5, Denver won 11 consecutive one-score matchups. Even wilder, they actually trailed in 15 games last season, which was the seventh-most in the NFL. Per Warren Sharp, Denver is the only team in NFL history to win 11 or more games despite trailing in 15 games in a single season.
We have a shift in the coaching staff. Former play-caller Joe Lombardi is out, and Davis Webb is stepping up as the new offensive coordinator. Webb has noted that while they will make some “little tweaks,” this remains Sean Payton’s offensive philosophy through and through.
QB Bo Nix had an incredibly unique rookie campaign. He actually led the NFL in pass attempts with 612 and posted the lowest sack rate in the league at 3.3% thanks to an elite offensive line. However, he also recorded the lowest yards per attempt (6.2 YPA) ever for a 14-win team. While Nix averaged a solid 23 rushing yds per game over his first two seasons, 33% of his 2025 fantasy points came from just three highly explosive games.
Bill Streicher-Imagn Images
The biggest question for fantasy managers regarding Denver is simple: How do you attack this backfield? First, you have J.K. Dobbins, who averaged an impressive 5.05 yds per carry last year and just secured a brand-new two-year extension. Since 2000, only three RBs with 500 or more career carries have averaged a higher YPC than Dobbins: De’Von Achane, Jamaal Charles, and Jahmyr Gibbs. Meanwhile, rookie RB RJ Harvey proved to be incredibly efficient last year, averaging 3.70 YPC, but scoring 12 or more TDs on just 193 total touches. He is one of only nine rookie RBs since 2010 to score 12 or more TDs in a season; the other eight players averaged a massive 296 touches to get there. Despite that efficiency, the Ballers have a hard time clicking on Harvey in drafts now that the team has added rookie thumper Jonah Coleman to the mix. We know Sean Payton is incredibly fluid at the position and will do whatever it takes to get production.
The acquisition of Jaylen Waddle (currently going as the WR21 with a 4.10 ADP) is a game-changer. Waddle remained elite on a per-route basis with the Dolphins, posting a stellar 2.42 yards per route run (YPRR). Now entering his sixth NFL season at 27 years old, he has faced some minor availability issues, but Denver’s quick-passing game paired with his elite run-after-catch ability could be a match made in heaven. Mike thinks this addition is absolutely massive. Last year, Courtland Sutton was running more routes than almost anyone in the league, but he averaged a mediocre 1.85 YPRR. As your top target, that will not get the job done. Waddle completely resets the ceiling of this passing game.
Waddle has been traded to the Bronco's 👀 @kyle_borg and @TheFantasyPT breakdown the dynasty implications on today's dyno pod 👏 pic.twitter.com/Clej0PNQZQ
— Fantasy Footballers (@TheFFBallers) March 18, 2026
If you are drafting Broncos players, you need to prepare yourself for a very rocky start. The first six weeks of Denver’s schedule are absolutely brutal: at Kansas City Chiefs, vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, vs. Los Angeles Rams, at San Francisco 49ers, at Los Angeles Chargers, and vs. Seattle Seahawks. Currently, the Broncos are only projected to win one of those opening six games. However, if you can weather the early storm, there is a massive silver lining: Denver is favored in their next eight consecutive matchups immediately following this gauntlet.
2026 Vegas Projected Win Total: 9.5
Los Angeles Chargers (11-6)
Player Additions: RB Keaton Mitchell, TE David Njoku, TE Charlie Kolar
Player Subtractions: WR Keenan Allen, RB Najee Harris, TE Will Dissly
Rookies: WR Brenen Thompson (Round 4 – ran a blistering 4.26 forty)
2025 Offensive Ranks:
| PPG | YPG | Pass Att | Pass Yards | Rush Att | Rush Yards |
| 24 | 118 | 569 | 3,953 | 466 | 2,067 |
It is not hard not to get excited about the addition of Mike McDaniel as the new offensive coordinator. Replacing Greg Roman, McDaniel brings a system that consistently ranks in the top five in pre-snap motion rate. He excels at getting his playmakers into space and putting them in a position to thrive. This schematic shift has Andy hyped about the fantasy outlooks of Omarion Hampton, Ladd McConkey, and Quentin Johnston, all of whom could become elite contributors for your fantasy team.
Jason is a self-proclaimed “Her-bro.” Last year, injuries to the offensive line completely derailed Herbert’s season, yet he still managed to move the offense and generate scoring opportunities. With a healthy O-line and a healthy Hampton, Herbert is primed for a massive fantasy bounce-back. Jason expects this offensive line to transform from one of the league’s worst to one of its best, mirroring the Chicago Bears‘ turnaround last year.
To put last season’s struggles into perspective, Herbert was hit 129 times—nearly double Bo Nix’s 71 hits. Remarkably, he became the first QB since Deshaun Watson in 2018 to make the playoffs while leading the league in pressured dropback rate (43%). Despite the constant duress, Herbert still showcased his immense fantasy upside by leading all QBs in scrambling yards with 439.
Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
Omarion Hampton (ADP: 2.05) missed Weeks 6–13 with an ankle fracture last year, but when active, he commanded a massive 30% opportunity share (carries plus targets). He proved to be highly efficient, ranking eighth in explosive run rate (6.5%) and fourth in inside-the-5 carry rate (80% in games played). The Chargers also added Keaton Mitchell to the backfield, who is one of just four RBs in NFL history to average 6.0+ yards per carry through his first three seasons (albeit on a limited 121 attempts).
With Keenan Allen vacating a 22% target share, the WR room is wide open. Ladd McConkey (who played primarily in the slot last year) and Quentin Johnston (who has quietly caught 8+ TDs in back-to-back seasons) will compete with Tre’ Harris for the top spot. Under McDaniel, expect to see a heavy dose of 12-personnel (two TEs) and 21-personnel (two backs, one TE), which heavily favors Johnston’s skill set on the outside. Another massive beneficiary is Oronde Gadsden, who is coming off a stellar rookie season. Given how much he will be on the field in these heavy personnel groupings, Gadsden is a fantastic late-round tight end flyer in drafts.
2026 Vegas Projected Win Total: 10.5
Kansas City Chiefs (6-11)
Player Additions: RB Emari Demercado, QB Justin Fields
Player Subtractions: RB Isiah Pacheco, RB Kareem Hunt, WR Marquise Brown, WR Juju Smith-Schuster
Rookies: WR Cyrus Allen (Round 5), RB Emmett Johnson (Round 5), QB Garrett Nussmeier (Round 7)
2025 Offensive Ranks:
| PPG | YPG | Pass Att | Pass Yards | Rush Att | Rush Yards |
| 20 | 20 | 502 | 3,947 | 430 | 1,812 |
After going 12-0 in one-score games in 2024, the Chiefs fell to 1-9 in those matchups last year and went 0-8 against playoff teams. Patrick Mahomes suffered a torn left ACL at the end of Week 15, and Rashee Rice missed significant time due to suspension and injury. Kansas City ranked dead last in both explosive rush rate and forced missed tackle rate, finishing with just four offensive plays of 20+ yards that resulted in a TD (tied for worst in the NFL).
Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
Eric Bieniemy returns to the Chiefs as Offensive Coordinator, replacing Matt Nagy. The offense with Matt Nagy over the past couple of years was *insert fart noise*. The high-flying offense with Mahomes just did not exist. Bieniemy’s return is a huge boost to this offense.
Prior to his Week 10 bye, Mahomes was the overall QB1, averaging 23.8 fantasy points per game, running at a career-high rate with 52 scrambles on the year. He set career lows in completion percentage (62.7%) and passer rating (89.6) by season’s end. When will Mahomes be fully back to himself after the injury? Reports are positive for Mahomes, but it is still hard to trust a QB coming off such a devastating injury.
Reacting to todays FA signings using just a gif (🧵⬇️)
Kenneth Walker to the Chiefs pic.twitter.com/xS9A3QDX6r
— Fantasy Footballers (@TheFFBallers) March 10, 2026
The Chiefs also bring in Super Bowl MVP Kenneth “Ken Bone” Walker. Walker (RB11, 2.07 ADP) was a massive boom-or-bust runner: he ranked #1 in forced missed-tackle rate but finished 38th in run rate on runs of three yds or less (56%). Crucially, the Chiefs have an NFL-high 58 vacated red-zone carries up for grabs. Andy thinks it was a definitive statement to go out and invest in him. Walker really helps this team. The Chiefs were awful on the ground last year: they had only one 20-plus-yard run. Ken Bone (even on limited snaps) had 10 by himself last season. Every time Walker goes to the edge, defenses have to account for him.
Does Rashee Rice‘s reward outweigh the risk? Rice (WR13) has been targeted on an elite 30% of his career routes over his first three years. Only Puka Nacua & Malik Nabers have a higher % in that span. Despite missing nine games last year, he still led the Chiefs in red-zone targets and receptions. He did have an offseason mishap – after testing positive for marijuana while on probation and being sent to jail for 30 days. You do not love that, but with no word from the NFL on any additional punishment if Rice plays all 17, he is a value in drafts.
Xavier Worthy scored 10+ fpts just ONCE ALL of last year. Among 40 first-round WRs since 2005 w/100+ catches through their first two seasons, Worthy ranks DEAD LAST in PPR/G, in receiving yds per game (37.7), and in yds per target.
Travis Kelce dropped in every major category from last year. His snap share went from 84% to 81%, his target share from 24% to 20%, and his receptions went from 97 to 76. He still finishes as a top-4 TE last season despite the regression. When he slips into the double-digit rounds, he is an easy click for Jason.
2026 Vegas Projected Win Total: 10.5
Las Vegas Raiders (3-14)
Player Additions: QB Kirk Cousins, WR Jalen Nailor
Player Subtractions: QB Geno Smith, RB Raheem Mostert, WR Tyler Lockett
Rookies: QB Fernando Mendoza (1.01 overall), RB Mike Washington Jr. (Round 4)
2025 Offensive Ranks:
| PPG | YPG | Pass Att | Pass Yards | Rush Att | Rush Yards |
| 32 | 32 | 515 | 3,315 | 369 | 1,317 |
The Las Vegas Raiders had a brutal 2025 campaign, averaging a minuscule 11.5 points per game on the road—the lowest away-game average in the NFL over the last 13 years. The ground game completely stalled out, registering only five total rushing TDs all season. Incredibly, all five were scored by rookie Ashton Jeanty, tying the mark for the fewest team rushing TDs in a single season since 2020.
Now, a total coaching overhaul resets the franchise. Klint Kubiak takes over as head coach (replacing Pete Carroll), bringing in offensive coordinator Andrew Janocko to replace Chip Kelly. Expect a massive shift to 12-personnel; Kubiak’s offense deployed two-TE sets at a 30% rate last year to top-tier EPA (Expected Points Added) success, contrasting sharply with a Raiders team that heavily struggled in those same groupings.
To stabilize the position, the Raiders brought in 37-year-old veteran Kirk Cousins to anchor the offense and mentor Fernando Mendoza, whom they drafted No. 1 overall in the 2026 NFL Draft. Mendoza was completely flawless in the red zone at Indiana, tossing 39 TDs to zero interceptions over his last two collegiate seasons. When will Mendoza get his shot? On average, first-round rookie QBs make their first start around Week 5. Adding to the intrigue, Mendoza has not actually signed his rookie contract yet. He was spotted on an Alaskan cruise with Andy last week instead of being with the team. It is a unique situation that is worth monitoring as training camp approaches.
Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images
Despite the team’s offensive woes, Jeanty handled a monumental workload as a rookie, commanding 39% of the team’s total rushing attempts and targets. That volume secured him the sixth-most targets and fourth-most touches for a rookie RB over the last decade. He is the clear focal point of this offense, but the ceiling depends entirely on overall team efficiency.
Last year, Raiders WRs accounted for the second-fewest fantasy points at the position across the league. Because of this, you should consolidate your fantasy focus tightly onto Brock Bowers and Ashton Jeanty. Peripheral pieces like Jalen Nailor, Tre Tucker, and Jack Bech simply are not volume-commanding players you need to worry about for fantasy purposes.
TE Brock Bowers tied Trey McBride for the most TE1 overall finishes (three) last year and showed massive red-zone progression, hauling in six TDs on 17 red-zone targets. If Mendoza eventually takes over under center, it introduces a variable for Bowers’ immediate projection, as a rookie QB could cap the TD upside of the entire passing game. It will not stop Andy from pulling the trigger on Bowers at ADP, but it is an important data point to keep in the back of your head.
2026 Vegas Projected Win Total: 5.5