Targets Per Route Run Report: 2024 Season Wrap-Up (Fantasy Football)
That’s a wrap. With most fantasy seasons over, most of us reading this article are thinking of DFS or looking forward to 2025. Or you’re just crazy. Let’s take a brief look back at the season regarding Targets Per Route Run. And, if you’re one of the few wackos with something to play for in Week 18, we have some thoughts on that as well.
Refresher: Targets Per Route Run (TPRR) remains one of the most insightful metrics for understanding player opportunity. It tells us who’s running routes and who’s earning looks when they’re out there. For wide receivers, a target is the most important underlying metric to predict consistent fantasy output, so a player’s ability to earn these targets at a high rate is key. 20% TPRR is a good minimum threshold we want to see, and the best of the best consistently see TPRRs north of 30%.
Week 17 and Season Recap
Hopefully, you were facing Cooper Kupp rather than playing him. Kupp has been abysmal during the fantasy playoffs, and his target rates are alarming. Kupp’s TPRR for the last three weeks: 12.5% in Week 15, 20% in Week 16, and 10.3% in Week 17. The Rams have clinched the NFC West and have little to play for in Week 18. Even if he plays, Kupp isn’t someone I’d trust right now.
Malik Nabers (WR7) has been a victim of the QB debacle in New York, but he reminded us all what he’s capable of against the Colts. Brian Thomas Jr. (WR4) has been even better, despite losing Trevor Lawrence in Week 14. When you throw in Ladd McConkey at WR13, what these three first-year receivers have done in 2024 is historic. The last time we had two rookie receivers finish in the top 13 was Mike Evans and Odell Beckham Jr. in 2013.
Jerry Jeudy has been a revelation in the second half of the 2024 season. Since coming off Cleveland’s Week 10 bye, Jeudy has been the WR3, trailing only Puka Nacua and Ja’Marr Chase. Jeudy’s 19% TPRR for the season doesn’t scream efficiency, but it’s worth noting he didn’t crack 20% TPRR until Week 11. Jeudy is tethered to the Browns’ offense barring a trade, but he is finally making good on his elite potential.
George Pickens (15% TPRR) didn’t impress in his return from a three-game absence but saw seven targets. Pittsburgh plays after the Baltimore-Cleveland game, so the team will know if they still have a shot at the NFC North title. Regardless, the Steelers are playing for seeding and would no doubt love to put the nail in the coffin of the Bengals’ 2024 season. Pittsburgh has been outscored by 50 points in the last three games without Pickens, and Russell Wilson will need to air it out to keep pace with Joe Burrow‘s onslaught.
Data: pff.com
Week 18 Notes
Marvin Mims got the shine in Week 17 with a 44% TPRR and a wild touchdown grab to tie the game but has yet to see a 50% snap share this season. Courtland Sutton (24% TPRR) is still the go-to target for Bo Nix and a more reliable option. What’s more, Sutton needs 82 receiving yards in Week 18 to trigger a $500,000 contract bonus. The Broncos need to win in Week 18 to ensure a playoff spot, so all starters will be playing against a Chiefs squad that wrapped up the top seed weeks ago.
Mike Evans is also close to a contract bonus, to the tune of $3M. Evans needs five receptions and 85 yards to trigger a bonus for reaching 70 receptions, 1,000 yards, and 10 touchdowns in 2024. With the playoffs on the line, Tampa Bay will prioritize the win. However, Evans has even more incentive to clear that mark: he’s surpassed 1,000 receiving yards every season of his 11-year career.
For more Week 18 player incentives and the latest news on players sitting out the final week of the season, check out Matthew Betz’s Week 18 Playoff Motivation and Incentives.
The Full List – Season TPRR Rankings
The correlation between TPRR and fantasy points scored (FPts) is our litmus test. While targets can’t guarantee receptions or points, opportunity is what TPRR hangs its hat on. When I looked at the FPts from receptions for 2024, 18 of the top 20 players had a TPRR of at least 20%. Only Jerry Jeudy (19%) and Jordan Addison (19%) fell below the threshold.
| Targets Per Route Run – Through Week 16 (Min 240 routes) | ||||||
| Rank | Player | Team | Routes | Targets | TPRR | + /- |
| 1 | Puka Nacua | LA | 278 | 103 | 37.1% | 0 |
| 2 | Malik Nabers | NYG | 534 | 157 | 29.4% | 0 |
| 3 | CeeDee Lamb | DAL | 526 | 146 | 27.8% | 3 |
| 4 | Josh Downs | IND | 327 | 90 | 27.5% | 0 |
| 5 | Nico Collins | HST | 342 | 94 | 27.5% | 0 |
| 6 | Cooper Kupp | LA | 357 | 97 | 27.2% | -3 |
| 7 | A.J. Brown | PHI | 361 | 95 | 26.3% | 1 |
| 8 | Drake London | ATL | 508 | 133 | 26.2% | 3 |
| 9 | Davante Adams | NYJ | 484 | 123 | 25.4% | 1 |
| 10 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | 520 | 132 | 25.4% | 3 |
| 11 | Dontayvion Wicks | GB | 270 | 68 | 25.2% | -2 |
| 12 | Khalil Shakir | BUF | 382 | 95 | 24.9% | 0 |
| 13 | Justin Jefferson | MIN | 567 | 141 | 24.9% | 1 |
| 14 | Mike Evans | TB | 378 | 93 | 24.6% | 5 |
| 15 | Chris Godwin | TB | 244 | 60 | 24.6% | 0 |
| 16 | Tee Higgins | CIN | 409 | 100 | 24.4% | 2 |
| 17 | Brian Thomas Jr. | JAX | 487 | 118 | 24.2% | 6 |
| 18 | Jauan Jennings | SF | 417 | 101 | 24.2% | -1 |
| 19 | Garrett Wilson | NYJ | 612 | 147 | 24.0% | 1 |
| 20 | Ja’Marr Chase | CIN | 659 | 158 | 24.0% | 1 |
| 21 | Zay Flowers | BLT | 464 | 110 | 23.7% | 1 |
| 22 | George Pickens | PIT | 399 | 93 | 23.3% | -6 |
| 23 | Stefon Diggs | HST | 270 | 62 | 23.0% | 1 |
| 24 | Ladd McConkey | LAC | 449 | 103 | 22.9% | 1 |
| 25 | Courtland Sutton | DEN | 557 | 125 | 22.4% | 2 |
| 26 | Tyreek Hill | MIA | 526 | 118 | 22.4% | 2 |
| 27 | Michael Pittman Jr. | IND | 439 | 97 | 22.1% | 4 |
| 28 | Keenan Allen | CHI | 516 | 114 | 22.1% | -2 |
| 29 | Amari Cooper | BUF | 375 | 82 | 21.9% | 1 |
| 30 | DeAndre Hopkins | KC | 357 | 78 | 21.8% | -1 |
| 31 | Wan’Dale Robinson | NYG | 555 | 121 | 21.8% | 2 |
| 32 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | 598 | 129 | 21.6% | 0 |
| 33 | DeVonta Smith | PHI | 395 | 84 | 21.3% | 5 |
| 34 | Jakobi Meyers | LV | 547 | 116 | 21.2% | 3 |
| 35 | Marvin Harrison Jr. | ARZ | 510 | 108 | 21.2% | -1 |
| 36 | Olamide Zaccheaus | WAS | 271 | 57 | 21.0% | 3 |
| 37 | Adam Thielen | CAR | 266 | 55 | 20.7% | -2 |
| 38 | Calvin Ridley | TEN | 527 | 108 | 20.5% | -2 |
| 39 | Quentin Johnston | LAC | 366 | 74 | 20.2% | 4 |
| 40 | DJ Moore | CHI | 635 | 127 | 20.0% | 5 |
| 41 | Terry McLaurin | WAS | 517 | 103 | 19.9% | 0 |
| 42 | D.K. Metcalf | SEA | 522 | 103 | 19.7% | 0 |
| 43 | Jayden Reed | GB | 370 | 73 | 19.7% | 1 |
| 44 | Romeo Doubs | GB | 360 | 70 | 19.4% | 8 |
| 45 | Noah Brown | WAS | 278 | 54 | 19.4% | 3 |
| 46 | Demario Douglas | NE | 415 | 80 | 19.3% | 1 |
| 47 | Jerry Jeudy | CLV | 677 | 129 | 19.1% | 11 |
| 48 | Deebo Samuel | SF | 420 | 80 | 19.0% | -8 |
| 48 | Xavier Legette | CAR | 399 | 76 | 19.0% | 6 |
| 50 | Darnell Mooney | ATL | 527 | 100 | 19.0% | -4 |
| 51 | Troy Franklin | DEN | 250 | 47 | 18.8% | -2 |
| 52 | Christian Watson | GB | 266 | 50 | 18.8% | -1 |
| 53 | Jordan Addison | MIN | 464 | 87 | 18.8% | -3 |
| 54 | Jameson Williams | DET | 446 | 81 | 18.2% | 3 |
| 55 | Tank Dell | HST | 447 | 81 | 18.1% | -2 |
| 56 | Xavier Worthy | KC | 515 | 93 | 18.1% | 0 |
| 57 | Devaughn Vele | DEN | 296 | 50 | 16.9% | -2 |
| 58 | Jaylen Waddle | MIA | 440 | 74 | 16.8% | 2 |
| 59 | Gabe Davis | JAX | 252 | 42 | 16.7% | 2 |
| 60 | Elijah Moore | CLV | 558 | 92 | 16.5% | -1 |
| 61 | David Moore | CAR | 317 | 52 | 16.4% | 1 |
| 62 | Brandin Cooks | DAL | 265 | 43 | 16.2% | 15 |
| 63 | Cedric Tillman | CLV | 278 | 45 | 16.2% | 2 |
| 64 | Joshua Palmer | LAC | 391 | 63 | 16.1% | 2 |
| 65 | Keon Coleman | BUF | 292 | 47 | 16.1% | 7 |
| 66 | Calvin Austin III | PIT | 346 | 55 | 15.9% | -3 |
| 67 | Rome Odunze | CHI | 592 | 94 | 15.9% | -3 |
| 68 | Jalen Coker | CAR | 242 | 38 | 15.7% | #N/A |
| 69 | Jonathan Mingo | DAL | 255 | 40 | 15.7% | -2 |
| 70 | Greg Dortch | ARZ | 270 | 42 | 15.6% | -2 |
| 71 | Alec Pierce | IND | 413 | 64 | 15.5% | 3 |
| 72 | Sterling Shepard | TB | 316 | 47 | 14.9% | 1 |
| 73 | Lil’Jordan Humphrey | DEN | 278 | 41 | 14.7% | -3 |
| 74 | Jalen McMillan | TB | 353 | 52 | 14.7% | 2 |
| 75 | Allen Lazard | NYJ | 387 | 57 | 14.7% | -6 |
| 76 | Ray-Ray McCloud III | ATL | 507 | 74 | 14.6% | -5 |
| 77 | Rashod Bateman | BLT | 417 | 60 | 14.4% | -2 |
| 78 | Ricky Pearsall | SF | 262 | 37 | 14.1% | 13 |
| 79 | Dyami Brown | WAS | 243 | 34 | 14.0% | 1 |
| 80 | Michael Wilson | ARZ | 501 | 70 | 14.0% | -1 |
| 81 | Kayshon Boutte | NE | 439 | 60 | 13.7% | 3 |
| 82 | Darius Slayton | NYG | 506 | 69 | 13.6% | 0 |
| 83 | Parker Washington | JAX | 348 | 47 | 13.5% | -2 |
| 84 | Tim Patrick | DET | 321 | 43 | 13.4% | -6 |
| 85 | Marquez Valdes-Scantling | NO | 252 | 33 | 13.1% | #N/A |
| 86 | Tyler Boyd | TEN | 429 | 56 | 13.1% | -3 |
| 87 | Jalen Tolbert | DAL | 530 | 68 | 12.8% | -1 |
| 88 | Kendrick Bourne | NE | 275 | 35 | 12.7% | -3 |
| 89 | Tyler Lockett | SEA | 529 | 66 | 12.5% | -2 |
| 90 | Ja’Lynn Polk | NE | 252 | 31 | 12.3% | -2 |
| 91 | Tre Tucker | LV | 611 | 74 | 12.1% | 3 |
| 92 | Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | TEN | 405 | 49 | 12.1% | -2 |
| 93 | Mack Hollins | BUF | 378 | 44 | 11.6% | 0 |
| 94 | Demarcus Robinson | LA | 468 | 54 | 11.5% | -5 |
| 95 | Andrei Iosivas | CIN | 528 | 56 | 10.6% | 0 |
| 96 | Jalen Nailor | MIN | 362 | 38 | 10.5% | 3 |
| 97 | Van Jefferson | PIT | 357 | 36 | 10.1% | -1 |
| 98 | Mike Williams | PIT | 328 | 33 | 10.1% | -1 |
| 99 | Xavier Hutchinson | HST | 245 | 22 | 9.0% | #N/A |
| 100 | Justin Watson | KC | 376 | 29 | 7.7% | 0 |
| 101 | Jahan Dotson | PHI | 362 | 21 | 5.8% | 0 |