Week 18 Playoff Motivation and Incentives (Fantasy Football)
In addition to the usual analysis that it takes to win in NFL DFS and prop betting (matchups, usage, roster percentages, etc.), understanding playoff motivation and individual player incentives can help take our Week 18 prep to the next level. We’ll take a look at the NFL playoff picture and then dive into which players might be playing for a statistical roster bonus in Week 18.
Note: There are two Saturday games this week: CLE @ BAL, CIN @ PIT
🚨 NFL WEEK 18 🚨 pic.twitter.com/lpCegO4SJB
— NFL (@NFL) December 30, 2024
*Teams listed below are in order of current playoff seeding entering Week 18. This article will be updated as we get information throughout the week on potential playing time, so be sure to bookmark and check back this weekend!
AFC
1. Kansas City Chiefs (15-1)
Scenario: The Chiefs have already secured the #1 seed and the first round bye.
Analysis: KC is likely to rest multiple key starters in Week 18. It’s already been reported that Carson Wentz will start for Patrick Mahomes, but we expect multiple other key starters to play very little, if at all. Isiah Pacheco left last week’s game against Pittsburgh with a rib injury, so the team is certainly going to hold him out here while DT Chris Jones is also battling a calf injury and will sit.
2. Buffalo Bills (13-3)
Scenario: The Bills locked up the #2 seed in the AFC when they beat the Jets last week. With the #1 seed out of reach, their Week 18 game @ NE is meaningless.
Analysis: The Bills are only 3-point favorites against NE in the betting market, suggesting we’re at least going to see Mitchell Trubisky under center. We expect most key starters to play very little, if at all. On Monday, Sean McDermott acknowledged that Allen’s consecutive start streak is important to him, so Allen “will play for a short time.” It’d be very surprising if Allen played more than a quarter at most.
3. Baltimore Ravens (11-5)
Scenario: The Ravens currently hold the top spot in the AFC North over the Steelers by one point, but they have not clinched the division. In order to win the division and lock up the #3 seed, they need to either win against the Browns or have the Steelers lose to the Bengals.
Analysis: Lamar and the other starters will play as usual for as long as this game stays close. That said, the Ravens are 18-point (not a typo) favorites at home against DTR and the Browns on Saturday. If the Ravens are up by multiple scores in the second half, we could see a lot of their starters rest in the fourth quarter.
4. Houston Texans (9-7)
Scenario: The Texans have already clinched the AFC South and cannot improve their seeding, so they’re locked in at #4. As a result, their Week 18 game against the Titans is meaningless.
Analysis: Houston is locked into the #4 seed, but on Monday, DeMeco Ryans said, “Everybody has to be ready to go, and that’s where we are. Everyone will be out there playing and we’ll see how the game goes.” Houston has lost two straight to the Chiefs and Ravens, so perhaps Ryans wants to establish some momentum heading into the post-season. Prior to this news, the spread as TEN -4 with the market expecting starters to rest. As of this writing, the line is TEN -1. Barring any additional information, we expect starters to play, but it’s possible key starters don’t play the entire game.
5. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)
Scenario: The Steelers fell to second in the division on Christmas Day when they lost to the Chiefs. They need a win and a Ravens loss in Week 18 to win the division and move up to the #3 seed.
Analysis: As noted, the Ravens should cruise to a Week 18 victory, which means the Steelers are very likely to be either the #5 or #6 seed. Worth noting, the BAL/CLE game is being played at 4:30 pm ET, so the Steelers will be well aware of their fate by the time their game kicks off at 8 pm ET. For now, this is a situation to monitor. Starters will play the full game if the Browns can pull off an impossible miracle.
6. Los Angeles Chargers (10-6)
Scenario: The Chargers clinched a playoff berth with their win over the Patriots in Week 17. They are currently behind Pittsburgh in tie breaker, but they can improve to the #5 seed if the Steelers lose and the Chargers beat the Raiders.
Analysis: There’s not much to play for in Week 18 for LA as they can’t improve their seed beyond the fifth seed unless the Steelers lose to the Bengals on Saturday night. With LA’s game kicking off on Sunday, they’ll know well in advance whether or not they can improve their seeding. If the Steelers do lose, we expect the Chargers to play their starters as usual in an effort to avoid a Wild Card matchup with the Ravens. By improving to the #5 seed, LAC would take on the Houston Texans in a very winnable game.
7. Denver Broncos (9-7)
Scenario: The Broncos lost to the Bengals in Week 17, so they’re still not locked into the postseason. They need to win in Week 18 against KC’s backups to clinch a playoff spot.
Analysis: Must win game. Expect starters to go all out.
8. Miami Dolphins (8-8)
Scenario: The Dolphins kept their playoffs hopes alive with a Week 17 win against the Browns. In order to make the playoffs, they need to beat the Jets in Week 18 and have the Broncos lose to the Chiefs.
Analysis: This is a must win game, and both the MIA/NYJ & DEN/KC games kick off at 4:25 pm ET. Expect starters to go all out.
9. Cincinnati Bengals (8-8)
Scenario: The Bengals were able to keep their playoff hopes alive with an exciting OT win over the Broncos in Week 18. In order to make the playoffs, they’ll need to beat the Steelers and have both the Dolphins and Broncos lose.
Analysis: Must win game. Expect starters to go all out.
The following teams have been mathematically eliminated:
- Raiders
- Patriots
- Titans
- Jets
- Jaguars
- Browns
- Colts – On Monday, Shane Steichen said as long as Anthony Richardson (back) is healthy, he will start.
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NFC
1. Detroit Lions (14-2)
Scenario: Sunday night’s game between the Lions and Vikings will determine the NFC North and the #1 seed. The loser will be the fifth seed while the winner locks up the first round bye and home field advantage.
Analysis: Must in game. Expect starters to go all out.
2. Philadelphia Eagles (13-3)
Scenario: The Eagles clinched the NFC East as well as the #2 seed in Week 17 with their win over Dallas. With the one seed out of reach, Philly’s Week 18 game against the Giants is meaningless.
Analysis: It remains to be seen how much starters will play if at all. Given that the Eagles are only three point home favorites in Week 18 against the Giants, all signs point to backups playing a lot in this game. On Monday, Sirianni said Saquon Barkley will rest along with some other key starters. It’s very possible we see Tanner McKee under center.
3. Los Angeles Rams (10-6)
Scenario: The Rams have clinched the NFC West, and the #2 seed is out of reach. As a result of being locked into the third or fourth seed, their Week 18 game against Seattle is essentially meaningless.
Analysis: The Rams have been in a similar position multiple times in McVay’s tenure as the head coach. Back in 2017, they clinched the division in Week 16 and rested starters in Week 17. Last year, they clinched a wild card spot in Week 17 and rested several starters for Week 18 against the Niners. Given this tendnecy, we’re expecting several key starters to rest this week.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7)
Scenario: The #4 seed with be NFC South champion. Entering Week 18, the Bucs are first in the division, but they have not clinched yet. They can win the division with a victory over the Saints or a Falcons loss to the Panthers.
Analysis: Must in game. Expect starters to go all out.
5. Minnesota Vikings (14-2)
Scenario: Sunday night’s game between the Lions and Vikings will determine the NFC North and the #1 seed.
Analysis: Must in game. Expect starters to go all out.
6. Washington Commanders (11-5)
Scenario: The Commanders clinched a playoff spot with their OT win over the Falcons on Sunday night. They currently hold the tie breaker over the Packers for the 6 seed and can lock up the 6 seed with a win over the Cowboys.
Analysis: The Commanders will be either the 6 or 7 seed, so there’s not a ton of motivation here. However, on Monday Dan Quinn said they will play to win, acknowledging that playoff seeding is important. Unless we get updated information, we expect starters to play usual reps.
7. Green Bay Packers (11-5)
Scenario: The Packers have clinched a playoff spot and will be either the 6 or the 7 seed. They can move up one spot to the 6 seed with a win over the Bears in Week 18 and a Commanders loss to the Cowboys.
Analysis: We’re still waiting on news from Green Bay on how they will handle this game. In theory, they can improve their seeding by one spot, but either way, they’re going on the road for the Wild Card Round and will play either the Eagles or the Rams.
9. Atlanta Falcons (8-8)
Scenario: The Falcons are currently second in the NFC South behind Tampa Bay. They need to beat the Panthers in Week 18 and have the Bucs lose to the Saints in order to make the playoffs as the #4 seed.
Analysis: Must win game. Expect starters to go all out.
The following teams have been mathematically eliminated:
- Seahawks
- Cardinals
- Cowboys
- 49ers
- Saints
- Bears – Interim HC Thomas Brown has said he expects all healthy veterans to play in Week 18.
- Panthers – Dave Canales has announced Bryce Young and the starters will play in Week 18.
- Giants
Player Incentives & Statistical Milestones
QB Geno Smith – Has multiple $2 million incentives tied to his production from the 2022 season, both from a team and individual standpoint. Smith will receive $2 million for each of the following:
- 4,282 Passing Yards: Currently at 4,097
- 30 Passing Touchdowns: Currently at 17 TDs
- 69.76% Completion Rate: Currently at 70.2%
- 100.87 Passer Rating: Currently at 90.5
- 10 Wins: Currently 9
In Week 18, Geno needs a Seattle win and at least 185 pass yards to earn an additional $4 million. He’ll earn an additional $2 million if he maintains his 70% completion rate. All in all, Smith could earn up to $6 million in Week 18.
QB Kyler Murray – With one more rushing TD & 50+ rush yards, he can earn an additional $750,000.
An update on Baker Mayfield's contract incentives, which include $500k each if he finishes in the NFL top 10 or NFC top five in five key passing stats. He's on pace to get all five right now for $2.5 million in bonuses:
passer rating: 3rd NFL, 2nd NFC
TD passes: t-2nd NFL, t-1st…— Greg Auman (@gregauman) January 2, 2025
QB Cooper Rush – Will earn an additional $500,000 if he plays 55% of the team’s snaps this season. Going into Sunday, he’s at 52.5%.
RB Saquon Barkley – Needs 101 rushing yards to break Eric Dickerson’s all-time single season rushing record. On Monday, Nick Sirianni alluded to starters resting while Adam Schefter said he’s be “floored” if Barkley played this week.
RB Derrick Henry – Needs one more TD to earn an additional $500,000 for eclipsing 15 rushing TDs.
RB Tony Pollard – Needs 83 rushing yards to earn a $250,000 bonus for hitting 1,100 rushing yards. He can earn an additional $250,000 if he scores two more TDs this weekend. Worth noting, Pollard was downgraded to out last Saturday because of an illness. He’s been battling an ankle injury for the last few weeks.
RB Alexander Mattison – Needs 67 total yards to earn $250,000 for eclipsing 750 total yards.
RB Joe Mixon – Needs 107 rushing yards to earn $250,000 for hitting 1,100 rushing yards on the season.
RB JK Dobbins – Needs 58 rushing yards to hit 900 on the season. If he hits 900+ yards, he’ll earn an additional $150,000.
WR Mike Evans – Currently sitting at 65/915/11 on the season. Needs 85 receiving yards to keep his 1,000-yard streak alive. Evans has had 1,000+ receiving yards every year of his professional career thus far. He also needs 5 more receptions to activate a massive 2025 Contract Escalator: $3M for 70 catches, 1,000 Receiving Yards, 10 TDs
WR Courtland Sutton – Needs 82 receiving yards to earn an additional $500,000 for a clause in contract where he totals 1,065 receiving yards and Denver improves on 2023 Total Points or Yards/Attempt.
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba– Needs 5 receptions to break Tyler Lockett‘s single-season record (100) for the Seahawks
WR Mack Hollins – Currently sitting at 28 receptions and 353 receiving yards on the season. Needs an additional 2 receptions to for an additional $50,000 and another 72 receiving yards to earn an additional $200,000.
WR Darius Slayton – Needs 11 receptions to hit 50 on the season to earn an additional $100,000.
WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling– Currently sitting at 16/378/4 on the season, MVS can earn $250,000 with one more receiving TD. He also can earn an additional $250,000 each for hitting 25 receptions and 550 receiving yards if he morphs yet again into Randy Moss for the weekend.
TE Zach Ertz – Needs 9 receptions to earn $250,000, 90 receiving yards to earn an additional $250,000 and 2 receiving TDs for another $250K.
TE Brock Bowers – Needs 9 receptions to break Zach Ertz‘s all-time record (116) for TE receptions in a season
TE Jonnu Smith – Can earn an additional $400,o00 if “team is Top 20 in Points Scored OR Net Yards and 59% Snaps”. Currently sitting at 54.7% snaps. UPDATE: Smith has played 584/1068 total offensive snaps this year. The only way Smith can hit this number is by playing ONE HUNDRED of a possible ONE HUNDRED snaps in Week 18. They did that man dirty.
TE Dawson Knox – Can earn an additional $250,000 if he remains at 60% of team snaps. He is currently at 60.5%.
Comments
Thank you for the info guys!!! You have made me change the way I think about DFS and prop/betting in general. #chili’s
Thanks
PPR – Which three of Higgins, JSN, Jalen McMillan, Jameson Williams, and McConkey to start for week 18? Leaning toward Higgins, McMillan, and Jamo because of recent form and playoff incentives, but JSN also seems like he’ll get a ton of targets with Geno’s incentives and going against the Rams slot defense.
Courtland Sutton or Jameson Williams?
PPR, I have Amon-Ra and Addison as well, with Goff.
Awesome article. It’s almost as if he is not just a pretty face on a podcast but a legit writer.