How QBs Perform After Losing Their WR1s (Fantasy Football)
Throughout the history of the NFL, the relationship between a quarterback and their top wide receiver (WR1) has often been a cornerstone of offensive success and fantasy football production. The chemistry and trust developed between these key players can elevate an entire team’s passing game, making the loss of a WR1 a significant challenge for any quarterback to overcome. However, several notable quarterbacks have demonstrated the ability to sustain their high-level play even after losing their primary receiver, often catalyzing unheralded players to perform to their fullest potential. In this article, we dive headfirst into the intriguing question: how do quarterbacks perform in the season following the departure of their primary wide receiver?
Research Objectives
The departure of a WR1 can occur for various reasons: free agency, trade, retirement, or injury, but its impact on a quarterback’s performance is consistently noteworthy. When a quarterback loses their top target, they not only face the challenge of adjusting to a new receiving corps but also must adapt their playing style and decision-making to account for the absence of an elite playmaker.
To explore this topic, we will:
- Examine historical examples of quarterbacks who navigated the season after losing their WR1.
- Analyze statistical trends and identify key factors that influenced their performance.
By examining these cases, we aim to uncover patterns and insights that can shed light on how quarterbacks might respond to similar challenges in the upcoming season.
In addition to reviewing past scenarios, we will:
- Apply this knowledge to two present examples of quarterbacks facing the task of replacing their departed WR1 in 2024.
- Leverage historical data to forecast how these quarterbacks might perform and identify potential strategies they could employ to maintain offensive efficiency.
Ultimately, our objective is to unveil the intricacies and better understand the quarterback-wide receiver relationship. We aim to explore the resilience, adaptability, and strategic decision-making required of quarterbacks when faced with the departure of their primary wide receiver.
Example 1: Patrick Mahomes & Tyreek Hill
Let’s examine our first example, focusing on one of the most elite quarterback-wide receiver duos in modern football. Patrick Mahomes, already often hailed as one of the best quarterbacks in NFL history, has achieved remarkable success, particularly when playing alongside star wide receiver, Tyreek Hill. Together, Mahomes and Hill formed a formidable tandem over four seasons from 2018 to 2021, propelling the Kansas City Chiefs to two Super Bowl appearances and securing victory in 2020. Coincidentally, they clinched the championship at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, the same venue where Hill’s current team plays.
Patrick Mahomes’ Statistics (2018-2021):
| Fantasy | Passing | Rushing | |||||||||||||||||||||
| SEASON | TEAM | GP | GS | RNK | PTS | PPG | SNP% | CMP | ATT | CMP% | YDS | Y/A | TD | TD% | INT | SCK | QB RT | ATT | YDS | Y/A | LNG | TD | FUM |
| 2018 | KC | 16 | 16 | 1 | 417.1 | 26.1 | 99% | 383 | 580 | 66% | 5097 | 8.8 | 50 | 8.60% | 12 | 26 | 113.8 | 60 | 272 | 4.5 | 28 | 2 | 9 |
| 2019 | KC | 14 | 14 | 8 | 287 | 20.5 | 84% | 319 | 484 | 66% | 4031 | 8.3 | 26 | 5.40% | 5 | 17 | 105.3 | 43 | 218 | 5.1 | 25 | 2 | 3 |
| 2020 | KC | 15 | 15 | 4 | 374.4 | 25 | 93% | 390 | 588 | 66% | 4740 | 8.1 | 38 | 6.50% | 6 | 22 | 108.2 | 62 | 308 | 5 | 24 | 2 | 5 |
| 2021 | KC | 17 | 17 | 4 | 361.7 | 21.3 | 97% | 436 | 658 | 66% | 4839 | 7.4 | 37 | 5.60% | 13 | 28 | 98.5 | 66 | 381 | 5.8 | 32 | 2 | 9 |
| AVG (2018-2021) | KC | 15.5 | 15.5 | 4.3 | 360.1 | 23.2 | 93% | 382 | 577.5 | 66% | 4676.8 | 8.15 | 37.75 | 6.53% | 9 | 23.25 | 106.5 | 57.75 | 294.75 | 5.1 | 27.25 | 2 | 6.5 |
During this timeframe, Mahomes not only excelled as an elite quarterback but also made a significant impact in fantasy football. He consistently ranked in the top 10 at his position over four seasons, with his only drop below QB4 occurring in 2019 when Hill was active for only 12 games due to injury. The Mahomes-Hill duo was part of one of the greatest dynasties in NFL history, alongside other crucial members like Travis Kelce, widely regarded as the best tight end in NFL history.
Kelce’s exceptional talent at the tight end position adds complexity to the analysis. While Hill’s performance was outstanding during his time in Kansas City, it is challenging to determine the primary receiver for most of their seasons with Mahomes. Notably, Kelce received more targets than Hill in their first three seasons together with Mahomes as their starting quarterback. However, in Hill’s final year with the team in 2021, he not only surpassed Kelce in targets and receptions but also in receiving yards and matched his touchdown total.
| Tyreek Hill (2018-2021) | Travis Kelce (2018-2021) | ||||||||||||
| SEASON | GP | TGT | REC | YDS | TD | SEASON | GP | TGT | REC | YDS | TD | ||
| 2018 | 16 | 137 | 87 | 1479 | 12 | 2018 | 16 | 150 | 103 | 1336 | 10 | ||
| 2019 | 12 | 89 | 58 | 860 | 7 | 2019 | 16 | 136 | 97 | 1229 | 5 | ||
| 2020 | 15 | 135 | 87 | 1276 | 15 | 2020 | 15 | 145 | 105 | 1416 | 11 | ||
| 2021 | 17 | 159 | 111 | 1239 | 9 | 2021 | 16 | 134 | 92 | 1125 | 9 | ||
| AVG (2018-2021) | 15 | 130 | 85.75 | 1213.5 | 10.75 | AVG (2018-2021) | 15.75 | 141.25 | 99.25 | 1276.5 | 8.75 | ||
Examining the statistical averages of these two players from 2018 to 2021 reveals a clear trend: Kelce consistently surpassed Hill in targets, receptions, and receiving yards, although Hill averaged two more touchdowns during this period. These statistics prompt the question of whether Hill was indeed Mahomes’ top receiving option, or if Kelce held that distinction.
Looking specifically at their final season together in 2021, Hill notably surged ahead of Kelce in several key categories. He accumulated 25 more targets, 19 more receptions, 114 additional receiving yards, and matched Kelce’s touchdown total of nine for the season. This substantial improvement suggests that Hill transitioned into Mahomes’ primary receiving target in 2021, a role that left a significant void in the offense after Hill was traded to the Miami Dolphins in the subsequent offseason.
Patrick Mahomes’ Statistics (2022):
| Fantasy | Passing | Rushing | |||||||||||||||||||||
| SEASON | TEAM | GP | GS | RNK | PTS | PPG | SNP% | CMP | ATT | CMP% | YDS | Y/A | TD | TD% | INT | SCK | QB RT | ATT | YDS | Y/A | LNG | TD | FUM |
| 2022 | KC | 17 | 17 | 1 | 416.4 | 24.5 | 98% | 435 | 648 | 67% | 5250 | 8.1 | 41 | 6.30% | 12 | 26 | 105.2 | 61 | 358 | 5.9 | 20 | 4 | 5 |
Following the departure of an elite asset like Hill, many speculated that the Kansas City offense might face serious challenges in the foreseeable future. However, those who held this belief underestimated the greatness of Patrick Mahomes. The 2022 season proved to be historic for the Kansas City Chiefs as Mahomes led an “Island of Misfit Toys” to the promised land. In 2022, Mahomes reclaimed the QB1 spot in fantasy football, a feat he had not achieved since 2018. Notably, he surpassed his 2018-2021 averages in total fantasy points, fantasy points per game (PPG), completions, pass attempts, completion percentage, passing yards, passing touchdowns, rushing attempts, and rushing yards, and achieved a career-high in rushing touchdowns with four. Furthermore, he exceeded or came close to matching his 2021 season statistics in almost all of these categories. Mahomes’ exceptional performance showcased his ability to lead his team to success even after losing a key player, affirming his adeptness at adapting and overcoming significant challenges.
Comparing Patrick Mahomes‘ 2022 season statistics with his performance in 2021 and his average from 2018-2021:
Despite maintaining his elite play and efficiency in 2022, Mahomes had to adapt his playing style to best suit a new core of receiving assets. While Kelce remained on the team, the departure of Hill left a significant void in the roster with no clear top wide receiver to fill his shoes.
To address this challenge, the team made efforts to bolster the receiving corps by signing JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. However, neither player had generated significant enthusiasm based on their recent performances leading up to their signing, aside from having some of the longest names in the league. Kansas City also attempted to bring in reinforcements through the draft by selecting Skyy Moore with the 54th overall pick, but he made minimal contributions to the offense. After some initial adjustments, Mahomes developed chemistry with his new receivers. Smith-Schuster contributed 78 catches for 933 yards and three touchdowns, while Valdes-Scantling added 42 catches for 687 yards and two touchdowns. Additionally, Kelce continued to dominate, finishing with an impressive 110 catches for 1,338 yards and 12 touchdowns.
Overall, Mahomes orchestrated one of his most productive professional seasons following Hill’s departure, leading the offense to rank number one in both yards and points per game and securing another Super Bowl victory. Mahomes’ situation is indeed unique, given his partnership with the top tight end in fantasy football and the coaching expertise of Andy Reid. With that said, it is reasonable to suggest that a player of Mahomes’ caliber possesses the ability to navigate the challenge of losing a key receiving asset and elevate lesser-known players to perform at their peak potential.
Example 2: Aaron Rodgers & Davante Adams
Getty Images / Icon Sportswire
Our next example highlights a truly historic duo that achieved remarkable success together. This pairing felt like a match made in heaven, especially as Davante Adams emerged as a superstar following a slow start to his career, coinciding perfectly with Jordy Nelson‘s departure from the team. Before his decline in 2017, Nelson consistently delivered elite fantasy production with Rodgers, even as Adams blossomed into a standout player in 2016. That season, Nelson finished as the WR1 in fantasy football, with Adams not far behind at WR8. With two premier receivers at his disposal, Aaron Rodgers secured the QB1 ranking in a season for the first and only time in his illustrious career.
However, 2017 marked a turning point as Nelson’s performance declined due to age, while Rodgers’ season was marred by injury, limiting him to just seven games. Despite Adams showing signs of becoming the team’s true WR1, Rodgers’ absence from the field makes it challenging to evaluate that specific year for this study. Nonetheless, Rodgers and Adams epitomized excellence in the following seasons, setting records and establishing themselves as one of the NFL’s most dominant quarterback-receiver pairings of their era.
Aaron Rodgers’ Statistics (2016-2021):
| Fantasy | Passing | Rushing | |||||||||||||||||||||
| SEASON | TEAM | GP | GS | RNK | PTS | PPG | SNP% | CMP | ATT | CMP% | YDS | Y/A | TD | TD% | INT | SCK | QB RT | ATT | YDS | Y/A | LNG | TD | FUM |
| 2016 | GB | 16 | 16 | 1 | 380 | 23.8 | 98% | 401 | 610 | 66% | 4428 | 7.3 | 40 | 6.60% | 7 | 35 | 104.2 | 67 | 369 | 5.5 | 23 | 4 | 8 |
| 2017 | GB | 7 | 7 | 31 | 129.6 | 18.5 | 54% | 154 | 238 | 65% | 1675 | 7 | 16 | 6.70% | 6 | 22 | 97.2 | 24 | 126 | 5.2 | 18 | 0 | 1 |
| 2018 | GB | 16 | 16 | 7 | 312.6 | 19.5 | 94% | 372 | 597 | 62% | 4442 | 7.4 | 25 | 4.20% | 2 | 49 | 97.6 | 43 | 269 | 6.3 | 23 | 2 | 6 |
| 2019 | GB | 16 | 16 | 10 | 278.4 | 17.4 | 98% | 353 | 569 | 62% | 4002 | 7 | 26 | 4.60% | 4 | 36 | 95.4 | 46 | 183 | 4 | 17 | 1 | 4 |
| 2020 | GB | 16 | 16 | 3 | 382.3 | 23.9 | 98% | 372 | 526 | 71% | 4299 | 8.2 | 48 | 9.10% | 5 | 20 | 121.5 | 38 | 149 | 3.9 | 14 | 3 | 4 |
| 2021 | GB | 16 | 16 | 6 | 332.3 | 20.8 | 88% | 366 | 531 | 69% | 4115 | 7.7 | 37 | 7% | 4 | 30 | 111.9 | 33 | 101 | 3.1 | 18 | 3 | 0 |
| AVG (2016-2021) | GB | 14.5 | 14.5 | 9.66 | 302.5 | 20.7 | 88% | 336.33 | 511.83 | 66% | 3826.8 | 7.43 | 32 | 6.36% | 4.66 | 32 | 104.6 | 41.83 | 199.5 | 4.66 | 18.83 | 2.17 | 3.83 |
Excluding the injury-riddled 2017 season, Rodgers consistently ranked as a top-10 quarterback in fantasy football every year he played alongside Adams, maintaining an impressive average of over 17 fantasy points per game in each season throughout this period. Following 2017, as the Packers’ undisputed alpha receiver, Adams achieved a top-three finish at his position each season he played more than 12 games within this timeframe. Despite their significant fantasy football success, Rodgers and Adams never secured a Super Bowl victory together, with Rodgers’ lone championship ring earned in 2011 before Adams joined the team.
After the 2016 season when Adams still played second fiddle to Nelson, he emerged as the primary target in the Packers’ offense. No other player on the roster came close to matching his receiving production thereafter, setting this duo apart from the previous example involving Mahomes and Hill. Consequently, one could argue that Rodgers would feel Adams’ departure more deeply than Mahomes did with Hill, especially considering Mahomes still had an elite target like Kelce on the roster.
Aaron Rodgers’ Statistics (2022):
| Fantasy | Passing | Rushing | |||||||||||||||||||||
| SEASON | TEAM | GP | GS | RNK | PTS | PPG | SNP% | CMP | ATT | CMP% | YDS | Y/A | TD | TD% | INT | SCK | QB RT | ATT | YDS | Y/A | LNG | TD | FUM |
| 2022 | GB | 17 | 17 | 13 | 239.2 | 14.1 | 98% | 350 | 542 | 65% | 3695 | 6.8 | 26 | 4.80% | 12 | 32 | 91.1 | 34 | 94 | 2.8 | 18 | 1 | 8 |
Following Adams’ departure, the Green Bay Packers‘ offense was deprived of its premier receiving asset. For several seasons, Adams had been arguably the league’s top wide receiver while in his prime. Now, the team was forced to rely on relatively unproven players lacking experience. While Rodgers still had the reliable veteran Aaron Jones in the backfield, his receiving corps included Allen Lazard, rookies Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs, and an almost ancient Marcedes Lewis. It is additionally worth noting that Rodgers turned 38 in 2022, suggesting he might have been past his prime as well. This could help explain his noticeable drop in production, along with the shortage of quality receiving assets. A significant Achilles injury in the first game of the 2023 season has continued to raise questions about whether the esteemed quarterback has actually regressed or if he still has some elite play left in the tank.
Comparing Rodgers’ 2022 season to his performance in 2021 and his average from 2016-2021, a notable decline in production is evident. In fact, the only category where Rodgers exceeded his previous marks was total pass attempts. However, he fell short in total fantasy points, fantasy points per game average, completion percentage, passing yards, yards per attempt, passing touchdowns, QB rating, rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, and notably threw significantly more interceptions compared to both 2021 and his average from 2016-2021. In fact, he tripled his interception total from 2021 to 2022. From a fantasy perspective, he scored nearly 100 fewer fantasy points in 2022 compared to 2021, despite playing an additional game, and his average fantasy points per game also dropped by over six points.
Comparing Aaron Rodgers‘ 2022 season statistics with his performance in 2021 and his average from 2016-2021:
In 2022, Allen Lazard emerged as Rodgers’ primary receiving target. However, Lazard’s numbers were relatively modest, with 60 receptions for 788 yards and six touchdowns. Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs, despite their efforts as rookies, combined for just 83 receptions, 1,036 yards, and 10 touchdowns. To put this in perspective, Davante Adams racked up 123 receptions, 1,553 yards, and 11 touchdowns in his final year with Green Bay. With such massive shoes to fill and underwhelming receiving options on the depth chart, it is fair to say that Rodgers was set up for failure during the 2022 season.
Analyzing why Patrick Mahomes experienced greater success after losing his WR1 compared to Aaron Rodgers can lead down different pathways. The most apparent factor, in my opinion, is the quality of receiving options each quarterback had after their WR1 departed. Mahomes was left with uninspiring players to fill the wide receiver room but continued to benefit from playing alongside the great Travis Kelce. Tyreek Hill may have emerged as the top receiving option in 2021, but Kelce had held that distinction in prior seasons. This made it an easier adjustment back to Kelce being the primary target earner and producer in the offense.
In contrast, Rodgers lacked a receiver even remotely close to Kelce’s caliber, which made maintaining his production and efficiency extremely challenging. Additionally, considering the age gap between the two quarterbacks heading into the season after losing their primary receiver is significant. Mahomes was over 10 years younger than Rodgers as they entered the 2022 season without their WR1. Still in the prime of his career, Mahomes should be expected to adjust more easily to this change compared to the aging Rodgers. These two factors are exemplified by Rodgers’ ability to adapt after the departure of his previous WR1, Jordy Nelson. Being younger at the time and having a budding superstar in Davante Adams on the roster, Rodgers was positioned for greater success in adjusting to Nelson’s departure in the following seasons. These variables could prove to be crucial when evaluating and predicting future scenarios where a quarterback loses their primary receiving option.
Example 3: Dak Prescott & Amari Cooper
To further our exploration, let’s now examine the departure of Amari Cooper from Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys, serving as our third and final example. While not as celebrated or renowned as the previous cases, this scenario presents compelling variables worth considering. Cooper began his career with the Oakland Raiders before being traded to the Dallas Cowboys in the fall of 2018. During his tenure in Dallas, Cooper achieved remarkable success, consistently averaging double-digit fantasy points per game and receiving over 100 targets each season.
Dak Prescott’s Statistics (2018-2021):
| Fantasy | Passing | Rushing | |||||||||||||||||||||
| SEASON | TEAM | GP | GS | RNK | PTS | PPG | SNP% | CMP | ATT | CMP% | YDS | Y/A | TD | TD% | INT | SCK | QB RT | ATT | YDS | Y/A | LNG | TD | FUM |
| 2018 | DAL | 16 | 16 | 12 | 285.9 | 17.9 | 99% | 356 | 526 | 68% | 3884 | 7.4 | 22 | 4.20% | 8 | 56 | 96.9 | 75 | 305 | 4.1 | 28 | 6 | 12 |
| 2019 | DAL | 16 | 16 | 2 | 337.8 | 21.1 | 100% | 388 | 596 | 65% | 4902 | 8.2 | 30 | 5.00% | 11 | 23 | 99.7 | 52 | 277 | 5.3 | 42 | 3 | 6 |
| 2020 | DAL | 5 | 4 | 33 | 134.6 | 26.9 | 94% | 151 | 222 | 68% | 1856 | 8.4 | 9 | 4.10% | 4 | 10 | 99.6 | 18 | 93 | 5.2 | 12 | 3 | 3 |
| 2021 | DAL | 16 | 16 | 7 | 320.6 | 20 | 91% | 410 | 596 | 69% | 4449 | 7.5 | 37 | 6.20% | 10 | 30 | 104.2 | 48 | 146 | 3 | 21 | 1 | 14 |
| AVG (2018-2021) | DAL | 13.25 | 13 | 13.5 | 269.7 | 21.5 | 96% | 326.25 | 485 | 68% | 3772.8 | 7.88 | 24.5 | 4.88% | 8.25 | 29.75 | 100.1 | 48.25 | 205.25 | 4.4 | 25.75 | 3.25 | 8.75 |
This productive partnership also translated into fantasy football success for Prescott, who finished as a QB1 (ranking in the top 12 at the position) in three out of four seasons alongside Cooper. The one season he fell short of this mark was in 2020 when he was only available for five games due to injury. However, during those games, Prescott was averaging a career-high points per game of 26.9, underscoring the potential for an outstanding season had he remained healthy.
A noteworthy development for the Cowboys was the emergence of CeeDee Lamb as a potential WR1 before Amari Cooper‘s departure. While Cooper was the undisputed primary receiver from 2018 to 2020, the 2021 season showed a slight shift in roles. This shift is reminiscent of what happened in Green Bay when Davante Adams emerged as the primary receiving option before Jordy Nelson‘s departure. In the 2021 season, Lamb received 17 more targets, caught 11 more passes, and accumulated 237 more receiving yards than Cooper. It is significant to mention that Cooper still managed to outscore Lamb in total touchdowns for the season by two. Despite the emergence of a new WR1 after the departure of the previous one, the adjustment was not necessarily as smooth as some might assume for Prescott in the following season.
Dak Prescott’s Statistics (2022):
| Fantasy | Passing | Rushing | |||||||||||||||||||||
| SEASON | TEAM | GP | GS | RNK | PTS | PPG | SNP% | CMP | ATT | CMP% | YDS | Y/A | TD | TD% | INT | SCK | QB RT | ATT | YDS | Y/A | LNG | TD | FUM |
| 2022 | DAL | 12 | 12 | 18 | 198.6 | 16.6 | 71% | 261 | 394 | 66% | 2860 | 7.3 | 23 | 5.80% | 15 | 20 | 91.1 | 45 | 182 | 4 | 25 | 1 | 4 |
While some of these statistics should not be overly scrutinized due to Prescott’s availability for only 12 games in 2022, there was a noticeable dip in production and efficiency in key areas. Most notably, his fantasy points per game average dropped from 20.0 in 2021 to just 16.6 in 2022. This marked his lowest average since 2017, the season before Cooper’s arrival in Dallas. Although his completion percentage and yards per attempt average saw marginal declines compared to 2021 and his average from 2018-2021, these changes should not be overstated.
What was particularly concerning was the increase in interceptions and the drop in QB rating in 2022 compared to these previous periods. Prescott threw a league-leading 15 interceptions in 2022, five more than in 2021, despite playing four fewer games. His QB rating also fell to 91.1 from 104.2 in 2021. These statistics suggest that despite Prescott being limited to 12 games and CeeDee Lamb‘s development into a true WR1, there was a noticeable missing element in the offense that contributed to on-field issues.
Comparing Dak Prescott’s 2022 season statistics with his performance in 2021 and his average from 2018-2021:
As previously mentioned, some of these statistics and totals should not be overly scrutinized due to differences in games played. However, it is essential to closely examine the receiving assets that Prescott had in 2021 compared to 2022 to better understand the drops in production and efficiency. In 2021, when Prescott finished as the QB7 in total fantasy points for the season, he had a wealth of productive receiving options. Notably, he had three players with over 65 receptions, 800+ receiving yards, and six or more touchdowns. Besides Lamb and Cooper, Dalton Schultz emerged as a key contributor, finishing the season with 78 catches for 808 yards and eight touchdowns. This was just one reception shy of matching Lamb’s total and he managed to finish the season with the same number of touchdowns as Cooper.
However, heading into the following season, the team lost Cooper and lacked another consistent production contributor outside of Lamb. While Lamb continued to develop into a true WR1 with impressive numbers (107 receptions, 1,359 yards, and nine touchdowns), there was a notable drop-off in production elsewhere. Schultz followed up his breakout season with respectable numbers (57 receptions, 577 yards, and five touchdowns), which are decent for a player of his caliber but not particularly inspiring as the second-best receiving option for an offense. Despite efforts from Noah Brown and Michael Gallup to fill the void left by Cooper, their contributions were not enough to generate significant numbers. Ultimately, although Prescott had a replacement WR1 in Lamb in 2022, it was not sufficient to compensate for the lack of receiving options beyond him.
Dak Prescott’s Statistics (2023):
While it was not necessary to consider the 2023 season in our previous examples, it offers further insight into this specific scenario. Prescott’s limited playtime in 2022, along with improvements in his supporting cast heading into the following season, makes the 2023 season particularly relevant. After a challenging year, the Cowboys made a significant change by relieving OC Kellen Moore of his offensive duties and entrusting HC Mike McCarthy with the team’s offensive direction. This decision proved to be highly beneficial, creating a fantasy football goldmine for the team’s top assets.
Two key moves paved the way for better performance in 2023. This included the addition of veteran wide receiver Brandin Cooks and the transition from Dalton Schultz to Jake Ferguson at tight end. Together, Cooks and Ferguson combined for 125 receptions, 1,418 yards, and 13 touchdowns. Additionally, CeeDee Lamb continued to ascend as one of the league’s premier wide receiver talents, amassing 135 catches for 1,749 yards and 12 touchdowns to finish as the WR1 for the season. With significantly improved receiving assets, Prescott’s average fantasy points per game rose to 20.2 from 16.6 in 2022, and he finished as the QB3 for the season with 342.8 fantasy points, the highest of his career. This remarkable resurgence after a forgettable season underscores the importance of a quarterback’s receiving weapons for fantasy production and consistency.
Recent Notable Examples
Including the three detailed examples discussed earlier, I have compiled a total of ten instances where a quarterback lost their primary wide receiver. This data can provide valuable insights into how quarterbacks perform in the season following the departure of their WR1 compared to their final season together and the average of all the seasons they played together.
Below are the fantasy points per game averages for these quarterbacks during the seasons they played alongside their WR1, the final season of their partnership, and the subsequent season following their WR1’s departure:
| QB1 & WR1 | Seasons | AVG | Final Season | Following Season |
| Aaron Rodgers & Davante Adams | 2016-2021 | 20.70 | 20.8 | 14.1 |
| Aaron Rodgers & Jordy Nelson | 2011-2016 | 21.92 | 23.8 | 18.5 |
| Andy Dalton & AJ Green | 2011-2018 | 15.60 | 15.9 | 15.6 |
| Ben Roethlisberger & Antonio Brown | 2011-2018 | 17.83 | 21.3 | 17.8 |
| Deshaun Watson & DeAndre Hopkins | 2017-2020 | 22.30 | 23.1 | 14.3 |
| Matt Ryan & Julio Jones | 2011-2020 | 17.75 | 17.5 | 13.1 |
| Matthew Stafford & Calvin Johnson | 2009-2015 | 17.04 | 18.1 | 17.5 |
| Patrick Mahomes & Tyreek Hill | 2018-2021 | 23.20 | 21.3 | 24.3 |
| Ryan Tannehill & AJ Brown | 2019-2021 | 18.67 | 15.8 | 13.4 |
| Tom Brady & Julian Edelman | 2013-2019 | 18.37 | 16.5 | 21.1 |
| AVG | 19.34 | 19.41 | 16.97 |
While these statistics may be influenced by various factors that could potentially skew the findings, a notable trend has emerged. Quarterbacks tended to maintain a consistently higher average of fantasy points per game throughout their seasons played with their WR1 and in their final season together before departure. The difference in average points per game during these periods was extremely minimal. Additionally, 60% of the time, quarterbacks achieved their highest fantasy point per game average in the season preceding their WR1’s departure.
Conversely, in the season following the departure of their primary wide receiver, quarterbacks experienced a decline of 2.44 fantasy points per game on average. This decline led to their lowest fantasy points per game average in six out of 10 cases. It is important to acknowledge that several circumstances could have influenced these outcomes, complicating a full evaluation. Some quarterbacks were entering the later stages of their careers, potentially impacting their ability to adjust to significant changes. Others faced injury setbacks in the subsequent season. Deshaun Watson‘s situation is particularly challenging to assess, given his suspension in the season following DeAndre Hopkins‘ departure and his ongoing transition since joining the Cleveland Browns.
In summary, quarterbacks tend to see a decrease in fantasy points per game following the departure of their primary wide receiver, albeit not by a significant margin in most cases. Notably, younger quarterbacks in their prime years often adapt more smoothly to such changes. The quality of their remaining offensive assets and the acquisitions made in the offseason leading up to the first season post-departure can also play crucial roles. These insights will help to support our predictions for Josh Allen and Justin Herbert in the 2024 season, following the departure of their primary wide receivers.
Looking Ahead
Josh Allen & Stefon Diggs
Getty Images / Adam Glanzman
After several highly productive years, particularly towards the end of his time with the Minnesota Vikings, Stefon Diggs was traded to the Buffalo Bills. Despite Josh Allen‘s initially challenging start to his career, he and Diggs emerged as one of the league’s most productive duos over the past four seasons, particularly in fantasy football. Diggs consistently finished as a top-10 wide receiver during his tenure with the Buffalo Bills, while Allen’s worst finish was QB2, achieving QB1 status in three of those four seasons. However, as they say, all good things must come to an end.
Josh Allen’s Statistics (2020-2023):
| Fantasy | Passing | Rushing | |||||||||||||||||||||
| SEASON | TEAM | GP | GS | RNK | PTS | PPG | SNP% | CMP | ATT | CMP% | YDS | Y/A | TD | TD% | INT | SCK | QB RT | ATT | YDS | Y/A | LNG | TD | FUM |
| 2020 | BUF | 16 | 15 | 1 | 395.1 | 24.7 | 95% | 396 | 572 | 69% | 4544 | 7.9 | 37 | 6.50% | 10 | 26 | 107.2 | 102 | 421 | 4.1 | 24 | 8 | 9 |
| 2021 | BUF | 17 | 17 | 1 | 402.6 | 23.7 | 97% | 409 | 646 | 63% | 4407 | 6.8 | 36 | 5.60% | 15 | 26 | 92.2 | 122 | 763 | 6.3 | 34 | 6 | 8 |
| 2022 | BUF | 16 | 16 | 2 | 395.5 | 24.7 | 98% | 359 | 567 | 63% | 4283 | 7.6 | 35 | 6.20% | 14 | 33 | 96.6 | 124 | 762 | 6.1 | 44 | 7 | 13 |
| 2023 | BUF | 17 | 17 | 1 | 392.6 | 23.1 | 97% | 385 | 579 | 67% | 4306 | 7.4 | 29 | 5.00% | 18 | 24 | 92.2 | 111 | 524 | 4.7 | 23 | 15 | 7 |
| AVG (2020-2023) | BUF | 16.5 | 16.25 | 1.25 | 396.45 | 24.05 | 97% | 387.25 | 591 | 66% | 4385 | 7.43 | 34.25 | 5.83% | 14.25 | 27.25 | 97.05 | 114.75 | 617.5 | 5.3 | 31.25 | 9 | 9.25 |
Following a season filled with disgruntlement that extended into the offseason, Diggs was finally traded to the Houston Texans, where he is expected to be a significant asset for CJ Stroud. With the departure of a receiver of Diggs’ caliber, several players will need to step up to fill the void. Although Buffalo boasts some promising pass catchers, most of them lack experience, raising concerns about the team’s offensive performance in the 2024 season. Additionally, the team will be without Gabe Davis, a vertical threat, who, despite inconsistent offensive production, played a valuable role that will be missed. Together, Diggs and Davis leave behind 241 targets from last season, providing significant opportunities for others to capitalize on.
It is important to note that Diggs’ production declined significantly towards the end of last season, but this had minimal impact on his star quarterback’s fantasy output. After Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator, Diggs received only 58 targets, catching 34 of them with a catch rate of just 58% over the course of nine games. Additionally, during Weeks 10-18, Diggs averaged only 7.49 fantasy points per game, a sharp drop from his 17.82 average in the first nine games of the season. Surprisingly, Allen’s performance remained consistent, averaging 23.37 fantasy points per game in the first nine weeks and 22.83 from Weeks 10-18.
While Diggs’ production declined with Brady as offensive coordinator, other players stepped up to support the offense. Notably, Dalton Kincaid, James Cook, and Khalil Shakir combined for 90 targets and 68 receptions at a 77% catch rate during this period, contributing to Allen’s maintained consistency and fantasy production. These players, along with free agents Curtis Samuel and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and second-round draft pick Keon Coleman, will play crucial roles in the upcoming season. It is likely that the Bills will distribute targets more evenly among these emerging weapons, as opposed to relying heavily on one or two players like they did with Diggs.
With Brady aiming for an efficient offense that spreads targets across multiple receivers, and with the addition of Samuel, Valdes-Scantling, and Coleman, Buffalo’s offense appears to be well-equipped for Allen to maintain his performance. At 28 years old, Allen is in the prime of his career, a factor that historically bodes well for quarterbacks facing significant changes in their offensive weapons. What sets Allen apart in fantasy football from other quarterbacks that we used in this study is his exceptional rushing ability, consistently ranking near the top of the league in rushing yards and touchdowns at his position.
Pathway to a Successful 2024 Fantasy Season
Although Allen had fewer rushing yards in 2023 compared to the previous two seasons, where he exceeded 750 rushing yards in each, he achieved a career-high of 15 rushing touchdowns, tying Jalen Hurts for the league lead among quarterbacks. He scored at least one rushing touchdown in 12 of the 15 games he played during the fantasy football season, generating 90 fantasy points from rushing touchdowns alone (excluding the rushing yards gained). Notably, this was only 0.8 fewer fantasy points than Deshaun Watson totaled in the entire season. This elite level of rushing ability gives Allen a significant advantage in maintaining production even after losing his primary receiver.
Analyzing Allen’s rushing performance reveals a notable shift coinciding with Diggs’ decline last season. In the initial nine weeks, Allen averaged 4.89 rushing attempts for 25.89 yards and 0.67 touchdowns per game. However, from Weeks 10-18, when Diggs’ productivity waned, Allen’s rushing attempts increased to 8.38 per game, yielding 36.38 yards and 1.13 touchdowns on average. This surge indicates Allen’s adaptive strategy, doubling down on his rushing game in response to his top receiver’s struggles. This trend bodes well for fantasy football purposes, given the premium on rushing production for quarterbacks. Looking ahead to the 2024 season, if Allen maintains this emphasis on running, it could significantly enhance his fantasy value.
Ultimately, several factors support confidence in Allen’s fantasy outlook despite the departure of his WR1. He remains in his prime, boasts a solid supporting cast to sustain his passing game, and possesses exceptional rushing ability that serves as a reliable baseline even in weeks with reduced passing production. Considering these strengths, continuing to draft Allen as the top quarterback in fantasy leagues is advised, with the expectation that he will contend for the QB1 spot once again, as he has consistently over the past five seasons.
Justin Herbert & Keenan Allen
Harry How/Getty Images
The Los Angeles Chargers underwent a significant offensive transformation this offseason, arguably unmatched by any other team in the NFL. Following another disappointing season marred by injuries, the Chargers made some significant changes, including parting ways with Head Coach Brandon Staley. In his place, they brought in Jim Harbaugh, fresh off of a National Championship victory at the University of Michigan, with the hope of bringing that winning culture with him to Los Angeles. Harbaugh has appointed OC Greg Roman to spearhead efforts to revitalize the offense and steer the team toward more victories. Despite this appearing to be a great move for the team, a potential challenge lies ahead for Justin Herbert’s fantasy outlook in the upcoming season.
| Fantasy | Passing | Rushing | |||||||||||||||||||||
| SEASON | TEAM | GP | GS | RNK | PTS | PPG | SNP% | CMP | ATT | CMP% | YDS | Y/A | TD | TD% | INT | SCK | QB RT | ATT | YDS | Y/A | LNG | TD | FUM |
| 2020 | LAC | 15 | 15 | 9 | 332.8 | 22.2 | 93% | 396 | 595 | 67% | 4336 | 7.3 | 31 | 5.20% | 10 | 32 | 98.3 | 55 | 234 | 4.3 | 31 | 5 | 8 |
| 2021 | LAC | 17 | 17 | 2 | 380.8 | 22.4 | 100% | 443 | 672 | 66% | 5014 | 7.5 | 38 | 5.70% | 15 | 31 | 97.7 | 63 | 302 | 4.8 | 36 | 3 | 1 |
| 2022 | LAC | 17 | 17 | 11 | 279.3 | 16.4 | 97% | 477 | 699 | 68% | 4739 | 6.8 | 25 | 3.60% | 10 | 38 | 93.2 | 54 | 147 | 2.7 | 23 | 0 | 8 |
| 2023 | LAC | 13 | 13 | 17 | 233.2 | 17.9 | 96% | 297 | 456 | 65% | 3134 | 6.9 | 20 | 4.40% | 7 | 29 | 93.2 | 52 | 228 | 4.4 | 35 | 3 | 4 |
| AVG (2020-2023) | LAC | 15.5 | 15.5 | 9.75 | 306.53 | 19.73 | 97% | 403.25 | 605.5 | 66% | 4305.75 | 7.43 | 28.5 | 5.83% | 10.5 | 32.5 | 95.6 | 56 | 227.75 | 4.05 | 31.25 | 2.75 | 5.25 |
The Chargers are expected to adopt a run-heavy offensive approach in 2024 and have traded away several key playmakers. The offensive landscape for the upcoming season will undergo a substantial overhaul following the team’s decision to part ways with key players Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, and Mike Williams during this offseason. These offensive weapons have been pivotal components of the team’s success in recent seasons, collectively accounting for 40% of the team’s targets last year. Notably, this percentage would have been even higher if not for Williams’ injury-plagued season, which limited him to just three games. Adding to the challenge, the team also bid farewell to Gerald Everett, who commanded an 11% target share last season.
Among these offensive weapons, none will be more sorely missed than Keenan Allen, who has served as Justin Herbert’s primary target throughout his four-year NFL career. Notably, during this timeframe, Allen has consistently ranked as a top-15 wide receiver in fantasy football in every season he has played more than ten games. This connection has proven immensely profitable for Herbert’s fantasy production as well, with the quarterback finishing as QB11 or better in three seasons prior to his injury-plagued 2023 campaign.
Allen’s elite status as one of the league’s premier route runners has been instrumental, allowing him to exploit defensive openings with precision and ease. Despite the Chargers’ ongoing challenges in protecting Herbert at the line, having a reliable safety valve like Allen has been invaluable. Excluding the injury-shortened 2022 season, Allen has consistently garnered close to 150 targets per season, placing him among the league leaders in this category and underscoring his critical importance to the team and his quarterback.
Power Outage: Chargers Desperate for a New Spark
The Chargers’ offense is poised for a significant transformation in the upcoming season. Instead of relying on familiar faces from seasons past, Herbert will be supported by a new cast of pass catchers who have yet to establish themselves as reliable targets. This group notably includes veteran Josh Palmer, last year’s underperforming first-round pick Quentin Johnston, and this year’s second-round selection, Ladd McConkey. While McConkey shows immense promise as a prospect, it will be a daunting challenge for him to step up and fill the void left by Allen and the other departed receivers. Additionally, the team acquired DJ Chark, who adds a vertical threat but may not offer much beyond that. The tight end position was addressed with the signings of Will Dissly and Hayden Hurst, though neither brings overwhelming excitement.
Ultimately, the Chargers will most likely adopt a committee approach to compensate for the targets left behind by Allen, Ekeler, Everett, and Williams. This transition marks a significant shift for Herbert as he attempts to adjust to a new ensemble of unproven pass-catching options. The change is even more daunting given the anticipated decrease in passing volume under the new coaching regime. Notably, Herbert currently holds the highest pass attempts per game average in NFL history, with 39.06 attempts per game over his first four seasons. This high volume has greatly contributed to his lucrative fantasy performances, showcasing his exceptional arm talent and strength.
With Harbaugh and Roman historically favoring a more run-heavy offense, Herbert’s pass attempts are expected to drop significantly. This reduction could impact his future fantasy outlook, making it intriguing to see how he adapts and how it affects his overall performance. To maximize his fantasy football potential this season, Herbert will need to improve his efficiency, particularly in throwing touchdowns at a higher rate despite the lowered passing volume. Fortunately, quarterbacks in this regime have been extremely efficient, excelling in touchdown rates. Notably, Alex Smith led his team to the NFC Championship, Colin Kaepernick led his team to the Super Bowl, and Lamar Jackson was a unanimous MVP under Roman.
Pathway to a Successful 2024 Fantasy Season
Speaking of Lamar Jackson, there is a pathway that could significantly boost Herbert’s fantasy upside in the upcoming season. While running backs have thrived in Harbaugh and Roman’s offenses, their quarterbacks have also run the ball at a higher rate than average. Standing at 6’6″ and 236 lbs with a 4.68-second 40-yard dash, Herbert has immense, untapped potential as a rushing threat, which he has yet to fully utilize in his first four seasons in the NFL. Despite having physical attributes and athletic testing similar to Josh Allen, Herbert’s best rushing season was in 2021, with just 63 attempts for 302 yards. In contrast, Allen has averaged 109 attempts for 617 rushing yards per season since entering the league.
Under this new coaching regime, there is a high likelihood that Herbert’s untapped rushing potential will finally be utilized. While Herbert may never become an elite rushing quarterback like Allen or Jackson, his 2024 season could resemble Daniel Jones‘ breakout in 2022. Before 2022, Jones averaged only 57 rushing attempts for 333 yards over three seasons. Despite not being as talented as Herbert, Jones’ similar size and athletic traits indicated similarly underutilized rushing potential. After the Giants hired Brian Daboll, Josh Allen‘s former offensive coordinator, Jones experienced a dramatic transformation, rushing 120 times for 708 yards and seven touchdowns in 2022, finishing as the QB9. Given the history of mobile quarterbacks thriving under Harbaugh and Roman, Herbert has a strong chance of achieving the most productive rushing season of his career in 2024.
While last season’s fantasy finish of QB17 may appear disappointing for Herbert, there is far more to the story than meets the eye. Herbert finished the year as QB10 in average fantasy points per game with 18.5, just ahead of Patrick Mahomes. His overall poor finish for the season can be largely attributed to missing the final four games due to a finger injury that required surgery. Even before his injury, Herbert struggled down the stretch, averaging around 13 fantasy points per game in four of his last seven full games. However, this overshadowed his impressive start to the season, which included seven top-10 finishes in the first 10 games. From Weeks 1-11, Herbert averaged 21 fantasy points per game, ranking among the top of the league at the position. Without the late-season injury, Herbert likely would have had his strongest fantasy season since finishing as QB2 in 2021.
I highlight last season’s performance to underscore Herbert’s elite talent when healthy. Many are writing him off due to new coaching and a perceived lack of weapons, which is understandable. However, even without a Travis Kelce-type player, Herbert could have a 2024 season akin to Mahomes’ post-Tyreek Hill. Elite players have the potential to overcome daunting obstacles, and Herbert, in the prime of his career, could still finish as a top-10 quarterback. This scenario would become more realistic if Quentin Johnston has a major bounce-back season or Ladd McConkey emerges as the team’s true WR1. It is also important to note that while Harbaugh and Roman have worked with some very talented quarterbacks, they have never had one with Herbert’s exceptional arm talent. They are likely to adapt their game plans to maximize Herbert’s unique skills. I believe they will give Herbert more freedom to throw the ball, unlike with their previous quarterbacks, boosting his weekly fantasy potential. Combined with increased rushing opportunities, this could establish a solid weekly floor for Herbert, paving the way for a successful fantasy season.
Ultimately, Herbert faces a tougher path to success compared to Allen in 2024, but that does not mean he should be written off. Not only does he have to overcome the absence of his WR1, but he also needs to manage without his other top receiving targets while adjusting to a new offensive system with inexperienced pass catchers. Due to this, he might experience a rocky start to the season, but there is still a solid chance that he will adjust to his new surroundings and exceed expectations for fantasy purposes. In dynasty leagues, now is a rare buy-low opportunity to acquire Herbert, focusing on his skillset and potential rather than his current situation. While a top-five fantasy finish might be unlikely, there are several reasons to believe he can defy the odds and finish as a QB1 in the upcoming season.
Final Thoughts
While the findings and takeaways may seem scattered due to various factors, there are some key insights for predicting a quarterback’s performance in the season following the loss of their primary wide receiver. Healthy quarterbacks in the prime of their careers typically adapt better to this challenge than those in the later stages of their careers. It is also crucial to consider the remaining receiving assets on the team and any acquisitions made to fill the void left by the departing receiver.
For example, Josh Allen has a solid array of receiving options for the upcoming season, and his rushing abilities provide a valuable floor for his fantasy upside, potentially compensating for any loss in passing production. This rushing ability could significantly enhance Justin Herbert‘s fantasy outlook if he starts utilizing it more, especially with an improved offensive line.
Ultimately, Allen is better positioned for success than Herbert in 2024, but both are likely to exceed current expectations and maintain their status as elite fantasy football assets despite the loss of their WR1. Herbert might take a bit longer to adjust to this change given his circumstances, but he can still be considered a low-end QB1 for the upcoming season. It is additionally advisable to buy the dip on the talented quarterback in dynasty leagues before the team inevitably strengthens its receiving corps in the coming seasons. This presents a unique buy-low opportunity for one of the league’s most talented young quarterbacks, who, despite his current situation, is poised for several highly productive seasons ahead.