Week 14 BALLER Model: Best Bets to Cover the Spread (Fantasy Football)
This article series covers BALLER*, a machine-learning betting model that predicts which team will cover the spread in each NFL game.
Through thirteen weeks, it has gone 53.2% overall, and since adjustments last week, it has gone 53.9% on its selected ‘Best Picks’ (‘Best Picks’ are determined through a combination of model confidence and outside football intuition). The model looks to bounce back on ‘Best Picks’ and realign with the overall average.
This is not an official Fantasy Footballers betting model* but hopefully a useful tool to make your decisions for fantasy and leans on certain spreads and who could cover. For the full array of betting material, find season-long and weekly props in the DFS Pass and tune in every week to the DFS & Betting Podcast.
In this article, I will break down the model’s best picks for Week 14 (five games) — let’s dive in!
Week 14 BALLER’s Best Bets
Keep in mind a couple of key points with this model:
- It focuses on the spread of the home team.
- It is applied primarily on which team can cover the spread, NOT “use this xSpread” the model spits out.
Minnesota Vikings (-3.0):
The Vikings travel to Vegas as three-point favorites, coming off a brutal loss to the Bears, featuring a four-interception performance by Josh Dobbs. The team has decided to stick with Dobbs in Week 14, and with top-wideout Justin Jefferson returning from IR, the offense should have a boost in production against a shaky Raiders defense. On top of this, Minnesota is 5-0-1 against the spread as the away team this season, compared to the Raiders’ 2-4 record against the spread at home. BALLER loves the Vikings to cover in this one.
Indianapolis Colts (+2.0):
The Colts come in as two-point underdogs on the road against a Joe Burrow-less Bengals squad. They’ve won four straight, scoring over 25 points in three of those victories. There is a stark contrast when we take a look at their EPA/play over these games in comparison to the Raiders’. These teams seem to be heading in opposite directions–with the Colts making a push for a playoff spot, we’ll take them to cover.
Green Bay Packers (-6.5):
The Packers, coming off a massive win against Kansas City, head into New York as 6.5-point favorites. They’ve now won four of their last five and averaged 24 points in those games. Another important stat to look at is turnovers per game–the Giants have turned the ball over an average of 1.2 times per game this season, which bodes well for a Green Bay defense that has seen much success this season. We’ll take the Packers to cover in this, and continue their hot streak.
San Francisco 49ers (-13.5):
The Niners head into Week 14 as HEAVY favorites against the Seahawks, whom they dominated 31-13 on the road earlier this season. San Fran is 3-2 against the spread at home and is quickly gaining momentum as they’ve won four straight in commanding fashion. Looking at each team’s EPA/play trend, the 49ers are simply playing on a different level than Seattle.
One factor that played a large role in their first matchup was Seattle’s inability to protect the ball–they gave it up two times (one for a TD) against the Niners, and have averaged 1.6 turnovers per game in their last eight. This game has San Fran to cover all over it.
Dallas Cowboys (-3.5):
The Cowboys are three-and-a-half-point favorites going into this massive divisional showdown with Philly. They fell to their rival on the road earlier this season by five points–now, they have a chance to take advantage of the battle fatigue the Eagles have developed over their last four games against top teams. Dallas has won four straight, putting up more than 40 points in three of those victories–they are also 5-1 against the spread at home this season. Let the EPA/play trend chart below speak for itself, and look for Dallas to cover this week.
That’s all for this article, as always, feel free to reach out on Twitter with any questions about the model!