The Biggest Start/Sit Decisions for Week 1 (Fantasy Football)
Football season is finally here! Week 1 has arrived, and all those summer drafts are about to pay off. Now it is time for the real challenge: making those tough Start/Sit calls. Do not worry, I’m here to help the FootClan with every tricky decision and Flex dilemma. Using the Fantasy Footballers Start/Sit tool and my own analysis, we will make sure you pick the best lineup each week. The goal is simple: start the season with a win and keep the streak going.
Week 1 has the FootClan torn on a few Start/Sits, so let’s jump right in.
Right when it seemed like your lineup was ready, Brock Bowers had to undergo a last-minute meniscus procedure. With Bowers out for a few weeks, fantasy managers everywhere are scrambling. So what should you do? Should you grab his backup, Michael Mayer, or is there another reliable option on waivers?
The FootClan has been flooding the Start/Sit tools with questions about backup TEs, so let’s look at your options and save your Week 1 without Bowers:
Juwan Johnson or Michael Mayer?
Listen, everybody is sleeping on Juwan Johnson, but he was secretly low-key balling out for the Saints last year. The second Tyler Shough took over under center in Week 9, Johnson blew up. We are talking a legit top-10 fantasy TE down the stretch, racking up a filthy 75.5% catch rate while putting up monster yards per route run. Want to know something even crazier? Trey McBride was the only TE who had more double-digit PPR games than Johnson last season. Insane stat for a player sitting on waivers in 39% of Sleeper leagues.
woof. better go get Juwan Johnson https://t.co/WYIXX9tOqb
— Mike Wright (@FFHitman) September 9, 2026
He wrapped up last season with nearly 900 receiving yards, including a ridiculous 245-yard explosion over his final three games. Now, with rookie sensation WR Jordyn Tyson on IR, Johnson should continue his dominance in this offense as Shough’s go-to security blanket. The Week 1 matchup against Detroit? Absolutely juicy. It is set up to be a total shootout with one of the week’s highest over/unders, meaning the Saints will have to throw like crazy just to stay alive. If Shough builds on the fire he showed late last season, Johnson isn’t just a sneaky streamer… he is a locked-and-loaded TE1.
Michael Mayer, on the other hand, has entered the conversation as the direct backup to Bowers. Whenever Bowers has been off the field, Mayer transforms from a quiet backup into a legit focal point, averaging six targets and nearly 11 fantasy points per game in those situations. Now entering a contract year under new head coach Klint Kubiak, Mayer has every incentive to put on a clinic. Aside from Tre Tucker out wide, this Raiders offense is STARVED for reliable passing weapons. The Raiders face off against a Miami defense that could get picked apart, making Mayer an absolute smash-play streaming option to start the season.
Verdict: When it is this close, I let the game lines settle the tie. The Saints-Lions matchup has a much higher over/under, and New Orleans will likely have to throw to stay in it. On the flip side, the Raiders against Miami just does not strike as a game where Oakland/Vegas needs to air it out to keep pace. Per Sam DiSorbo’s Week 1 Team Performance Trends article: “Cleveland (-0.19), Las Vegas (-0.22), Tennessee (-0.16), and the Jets (-0.13) were the four worst offenses in the league last season by EPA/play. CLE heads to Jacksonville, LV hosts Miami, NYJ travels to Tennessee, and TEN hosts the Jets. None of these games has strong fantasy upside on either side. Fade their skill players until we see real data.” I am siding with the Ballers (and Sam) on this one and slotting in Juwan Johnson instead of Michael Mayer.
Dallas Goedert or Juwan Johnson?
I have already made the case for Juwan Johnson, but are there even better spot starts lurking on the waiver wire this week?
Enter Dallas Goedert. Look, I completely get it if you are hesitating to buy into the Goedert narrative. He is the definition of a “boring” fantasy option. But since when did boring mean bad? When I was pulling the numbers for this week, I actually had to do a double-take: Goedert finished 2025 as the TE5 in fantasy PPG. Shocking, right? But once you dig past the surface, the reason becomes pretty clear: he ran extremely hot on TDs. 11, to be exact, which is more than double his previous career high and tied with Trey McBride for the most at the position in 2025. That is the textbook definition of an outlier year, and going into 2026, we have to treat it like one. Say it with me now: regression.
Verdict: That said, the matchup right out of the gate is too good to ignore. I am starting Goedert. Washington was a top-10 fantasy matchup for TEs last season, and this NFC East rivalry is exactly the environment you want for your fantasy players. Plus, with A.J. Brown no longer in this Eagles offense, someone has to step up in the passing game. In four games without Brown over the last two years, Goedert posted at least 9.5 Half-PPR points in three of them. Small sample size? Sure. But the logic checks out: when an elite target-eater leaves, the remaining established pass-catchers get fed.
Now that we have covered that, let’s tackle some tough flex decisions for Week 1:
Jaylen Warren or Rico Dowdle?
Did you feel personally victimized by the never-ending debate over who takes the RB1 mantle in this new Mike McCarthy offense, only to throw your hands up and draft both? You are definitely not alone. I have seen this exact backfield double-down on so many fantasy rosters this year. Since both guys were absolute bargains in drafts, it was way too easy to snag the pair and pray for a clear winner, or at least two usable fantasy assets.
When you can’t decide on the Steelers RB split, so you just draft the whole backfield.
Filling my zero-RB build like it's a gas station fountain drink. 🙆 pic.twitter.com/zIjx9SQ7fU
— PlayerProfiler (@rotounderworld) September 5, 2026
Pittsburgh is going through its first head-coaching change since 2007, so a lot is happening. McCarthy brought in Rico Dowdle, who played for him in Dallas for five years, which helps. But McCarthy also said he trusts both running backs in every situation: early downs, late downs, short-yardage, and pass-catching. This means we are likely looking at a true 50/50 split to start the season.
Vegas also sees this as a toss-up. DraftKings gives both RBs +120 odds to score a TD, and their rushing yard props are almost identical: Warren at 43.5, Dowdle at 42.5.
The real tiebreaker? The receiving work. Warren’s line is set at 2.5 receptions to Dowdle’s 1.5. That might sound like small potatoes, but let’s be real about who Aaron Rodgers is at this stage of his career: the ultimate check-down merchant. Whoever is in line for the receiving work will get the edge, and truthfully I am betting the over. Warren already has three seasons under his belt with 300+ receiving yards, a threshold Dowdle has never touched.
The Verdict: In Full PPR, fire up Jaylen Warren for the pass-catching floor. In Half-PPR / Standard fantasy leagues, I lean Rico Dowdle for the early-down volume and TD potential.
Bhayshul Tuten or Christian Watson?
Look, I totally get why you are tempted to flex Bhayshul Tuten. With Travis Etienne out of the picture in Jacksonville, Tuten is sitting on a golden opportunity in Liam Coen’s high-octane offense. Tuten is pure lightning in space, rocks a 4.32 forty, and showed real pass-catching chops back at Virginia Tech. Plus, a potential high-scoring home matchup against a Myles Garrett-less Cleveland feels like a fantasy manager’s dream. The problem? He really did not give us much to build on as a rookie to trust him as a legit RB1. He put up just 307 rushing yards on a quiet 3.7 yards per carry, and pulled in only 10 catches.
More importantly, his Week 1 workload is a massive mystery. Jacksonville gave Chris Rodriguez Jr. a $10 million deal and officially listed him as a co-starter. Rodriguez has history with Coen from their Kentucky days, and he is built to gobble up those dirty, goal-line touches fantasy managers want. While Rodriguez lacks top-end gear and isn’t super agile, he runs hard with great vision. Tuten has all the breakaway speed in the world, but his vision is still a work in progress.
Tuten might be Mike’s Fantasy MVP pick this year, but I just do not see how the math adds up for him to pull away completely while Rodriguez is around. For Tuten to blow up, he would need a massive leap as a pass-catcher, and with a crowded target tree featuring Parker Washington, Brian Thomas Jr., Jakobi Meyers, and Brenton Strange, plus a QB who isn’t forced to check it down, that path looks pretty bleak. Sorry, Mike!
While Tuten might be Mike Wright’s MVP, Christian Watson is his official MY GUY, and in the Footballer’s community, we both know that title carries serious weight. Since 2000, Watson is literally one of only three players to average 17 yds per catch and rack up 20 TDs over his first four years. Mind you, he was coming off an ACL tear last year and did not even hit the field until Week 8. From Week 11 on, he absolutely dominated: second in the NFL in yds per route run (YPRR), third in targets per route run (29%), and first in first downs per route run (15%).
Christian Watson could have a MASSIVE year if he stays healthy.
In games without Romeo Doubs, he added:
➕ 2 targets
➕ 30 Yards
➕ 5 Fantasy PPGIn games with at least a 75% route share, he's averaged 17.5 PPG.
That would be the WR3 in fantasy football. pic.twitter.com/Sv4zl0pKq2
— Alfredo Brown (@AlfredoABrown) August 28, 2026
The crazy part is how Matt LaFleur tweaked his route tree. Pre-injury, Watson’s target rate on out-routes was a meager 7.7%. Last year? That jumped to 35%. He became a horizontal threat, leading the entire league with a ridiculous 3.98 YPRR on horizontally-breaking routes. Again…coming off a torn ACL.
Verdict: The Ballers always preach “follow the money,” and Green Bay just paid Watson. They handed him a four-year extension with $31 million guaranteed (part of an overall $110.5M deal), clear confirmation he is THE GUY. To top it off, they cleared the decks by shipping Romeo Doubs off and trading Dontayvion Wicks. The WR room is wide open for Watson to ascend, and ascend he will. The question marks around Tuten’s usage, paired with never seeing him have an elite fantasy week in his rookie season, make me trepidatious. Plug in Watson.
As we set our sights on Week 1, it is time to make every decision count. Look for those soft matchups, factor in the latest injuries, and most importantly, trust your gut. If you still need help with any Start/Sit decisions, feel free to reach out to me on X—or check out Mike’s Sunday morning pre-kickoff show! Let’s lock in those lineups, say a prayer to the fantasy gods, and make this season unforgettable.
Comments
Excellent as always.
CRODSZN! :)
TQ
Great job fox!