NFL DFS DraftKings GPP Picks: Week 1 (Fantasy Football)
These are upside plays for large-field GPPs, not a complete player pool. Strong tournament lineups often pair popular cash plays with lower-rostered leverage. Use Betz’s Week 1 Cash Plays (here), our Roster Percentage Report (here), and DFS Rankings (here) alongside these recommendations to construct solid GPP lineups.
Note: Plays are listed by salary, not preference.
For pOwn, this is from my personal weekly projections sheet (lots of data if you are interested; find me in the DFS Discord).
Quarterback
Joe Burrow vs TB | $6,900 | 7.6%
The angle is a simple one: an elite passing offense that isn’t carrying elite QB ownership. TB finished 27th in passing yards allowed last season, while Burrow led the NFL in end zone passing accuracy. It is projected as the highest-scoring game of the week and pairs well with the Chase chalk.
Lamar Jackson @ IND | $6,800 | 5.5%
At 5.5%, this is almost entirely a ceiling-and-ownership argument. IND was 30th against the pass last season, allowing 247.9 yards per game, and Lamar gives you the rushing ceiling that can separate him from the pocket passers.
Malik Willis @ LV | $5,300 | 1.7%
This is his first start as MIA’s unquestioned QB1, and he averaged 44.8 rushing yards per game in his limited opportunities over the last two seasons. At 1.7%, I would push the unknown as a good thing rather than a knock because DFS players tend to under-roster situations they cannot confidently project.
Running Back
Bijan Robinson @ PIT | $7,700 | 23.2%
Usually I do not include a player who is rostered this high, but it is almost half of what Gibbs is. If you fade Gibbs, you can get the upside with a pOwn discount. The argument is that his raw ceiling can still win the slate, and cheaper, low-owned plays elsewhere make the salary palatable. Remember: 2,298 total yards last season, and I doubt Brian Robinson gets as much work as Tyler Allgeier did.
Chase Brown vs TB | $7,100 | 8.8%
What if Ja’Marr fails Week 1 like last year? He was major chalk and hit DFS players with a -90% ROI (oof). With Chase Brown, we can focus on the offense while getting leverage. He is the clear lead back with little meaningful competition behind him, and his receiving role keeps him alive even if TB makes rushing inefficient.
David Montgomery vs BUF | $6,000 | 2.2%
This is an uncertainty discount. He was traded to HOU, and the field appears hesitant to decide how the Montgomery/Woody Marks workload shakes out, but Montgomery was still 12th in yards after contact per attempt last season. At 2.2%, you are betting Houston uses him more like a lead back than the field expects.
Travis Etienne Jr. @ DET | $5,900 | 7.5%
The key is Alvin Kamara’s injury, not a bunch of advanced metrics. Etienne had 296 touches and 1,399 total yards last season, and NO should immediately need him in a substantial role. He is leverage off the Shough, Olave, Vele, and Johnson chalk.
Bhayshul Tuten vs CLE | $5,800 | 1.1%
JAX lists him in a lead-back competition with Chris Rodriguez, while third-down RB LeQuint Allen has been banged up. Tuten ranked fifth in rushing success rate among qualifying RBs last season. The field’s uncertainty about who gets the touches is exactly why he is 1% after being a draft darling this summer.
Darts
A dart is a sub-$6k, sub-5% pOwn, with a projection > 11 points.
Tony Pollard: Potential workhorse role and a Jets defense that allowed 139.5 rushing yards per game last year.
Quinshon Judkins: If the Browns keep it respectable, his RB1 listing and talent could pay off.
Chuba Hubbard: A role boost if Jonathan Brooks remains limited.
Jaylen Warren: Efficiency plus receiving upside.
Rico Dowdle: Sneaky TD equity if the coach that helped him break out in DAL sets him up.
Marshawn Lloyd @ MIN | $4,800 | 5.5%
Josh Jacobs is on the commissioner’s exempt list, which suddenly puts Lloyd in position to lead GB’s backfield with limited NFL experience. MIN allowed the sixth-highest rushing success rate last season, so 5.5% is interesting, especially since we have never seen the role in a real game.
Wide Receiver
Amon-Ra St. Brown vs NO | $7,500 | 21.2%
Since 2024, when DET was favored by six or more, St. Brown beat Jameson Williams 10 of 14 times in games as DET’s top fantasy WR. The Lions are 6.5 favorites against NO. Like Bijan, the pOwn is much higher than normal GPP selections, but it is leverage off Gibbs.
Justin Jefferson vs GB | $7,300 | 11.4%
Two TDs last year are still fresh enough to scare the field off, but the talent never went anywhere. At roughly 10% pOwn, I am betting QB whisperer Kevin O’Connell can get Kyler Murray comfortable enough to unlock this offense and bring the ceiling back with him.
Drake London @ PIT | $6,500 | 8.9%
The interesting wrinkle is the QB. I get it; it is scary with no Tua or Penix. It’s actually scary even with them.
Cooper Rush and/or Jack Strand don’t exactly get me hot and bothered. But ATL could manufacture volume and easier completions rather than relying exclusively on deep/intermediate targets. At under 9%, you are buying the talent before you know whether Stefanski gets bad QBs to play functionally as he did in CLE (at times).
Tee Higgins vs TB | $6,300 | 11.6%
This is one where the game environment does the heavy lifting. Higgins is one of only four WRs to post 20+ receiving TDs over the last two seasons, and TB isn’t shy about playing high-scoring games as the underdog. Like Chase Brown, this is leverage off Ja’Marr. Double CIN stacks are certainly in play as well.
Jameson Williams vs NO | $6,000 | 8.3%
Here I am, talkin’ out both ends of my mouth. But what if, just what if, Gibbs AND Amon-Ra fail? This is a real man’s leverage. From Weeks 10-18, he averaged 84.7 receiving yards per game and finished WR11 in FPPG after DET started using him as more than a pure deep threat.
Darts
A WR dart is a sub-$6k, sub-5% pOwn, with a projection > 10 points.
Jordan Addison: TD equity can hit any game.
Terry McLaurin: Pure talent and low ownership in a matchup the field is scared of.
DJ Moore: If he gets volume as Diggs did a few years ago, he will eat.
Rome Odunze: Strong matchup and injury risk baked in. The Q tag will keep pOwn at bay.
Josh Downs: He will be on the field a lot if Alec Pierce isn’t 100%.
Michael Pittman: Easy perimeter defense matchup if A.J. Terrell Jr. is all up in DK Metcalf‘s business.
Wan’Dale Robinson: Likely starts the season with a substantial target share while rookie Carnell Tate adjusts to NFL speed.
Honorable Mentions
Players that are sub-10 %, > 11 projection, with early-season upside for 2026. The prices will likely rise if they hit, so this is one of the better weeks to hit this range.
Watson: Likely GB’s WR1 and posted a nice 2.67 yards per route run from Weeks 8-18 last season.
Burden: If he breaks out this year as his fourth-round fantasy draft capital suggests, enjoy him at the discounted price.
DK: ATL allowed the second-most fantasy points to perimeter WRs over the closing stretch of last season.
Tight End
Trey McBride @ LAC | $6,800 | 5%
Do not overcomplicate it. This is the easiest tournament thesis I will get all season. He produced 1,239 yards and 11 TDs last year as the best fantasy TE, yet the field is giving us the slate’s best raw TE ceiling around 5% because the LAC matchup is difficult.
Fun stat: Over the last 20 years, 16 of 20 Chargers Week 1 games were decided by one possession: 80%. This might not be as much of a layup for the Chargers as the field expects.
Colston Loveland @ CAR | $5,300 | 9.1%
Carolina allowed the second-most yards per target to TEs last season, and there is a legitimate argument that Loveland becomes the most dependable weekly target in CHI’s loaded offense.
Tyler Warren vs BAL | $4,900 | 9.4%
You like volume? Here’s your play. He had 106 targets as a rookie, Michael Pittman is gone, and IND spent the offseason signaling Warren as a centerpiece of the passing attack. The matchup is secondary to the role at $4,900 with Alec Pierce‘s lingering injury.
Darts
A TE dart is a sub-$5k, sub-5% pOwn, with a projection > 8 points.
Kyle Pitts: I know, I know. Kyle Pitts again. But 118 targets and 928 yards last year showed the role is still there, and now he gets a Steelers defense that finished 29th against the pass.
Dalton Kincaid: Among 54 qualifying TEs last year, he ranked first in yards per route run but only 39th in route share. If he can bring his targets from 49 to the 70s this season, we are cooking.
Harold Fannin: Fannin was TE8 in fantasy points per game as a rookie. Now Njoku is gone. Do not let the highly drafted rookie WRs cloud our judgment more than it should.
T.J. Hockenson: This is a salary-saving play. He is not the player he once was, but $3.3k opens up super fun builds while avoiding the Michael Mayer chalk.
DST
DSTs are unpredictable and highly volatile. I recommend spreading them out in your portfolio each week and not locking in on only one or two.
Chargers | $3,500 | 3.4%
There is no way this doesn’t get higher through the weekend, as LAC is the favorite play in survivor leagues everywhere. ARI ranked 31st in pressure rate allowed after Jacoby Brissett took over, while LAC ranked seventh in sack rate.
Lions | $3,200 | 2.8%
The Lions secondary is concerning. No Brian Branch or Kerby Joseph will push the field away. There is still TO upside here if NO struggles to keep Shough out of trouble (allowed 49 sacks last year).
Titans | $3,100 | 6%
Coach Robert Saleh gets Geno Smith in his first game, and Smith has 33 giveaways and 105 sacks taken over the last two seasons.
Browns | $2,100 | 6.8%
Punt play of the week, as the matchup is horrendous. Everyone assumes they will be worse without Myles Garrett (totally fair and likely true), but if Jared Verse is able to fill in at least a percentage of what Garrett was, the Browns DST may be sneakier than we realize.
Last Week’s Milly Maker Winner
Each week, we review the Milly Maker lineup from an ownership and salary perspective. We then audit our picks between Betz and me to see if we had the player in either of our articles.
Last Week’s GPP Picks Review
We are all about transparency here, so we will review last week’s article to see how many we got right.
- A HIT means a player 3x his PP$
- A MISS means a player did not
See you next week!