NFL DFS Tournament Takes & Leverage Points: Week 1 (Fantasy Football)
If you read Tournament Takes in previous seasons, the goal hasn’t changed. We still want to figure out where the field is going and find the best ways to attack it. This year, I want to take it a step further by showing you how those decisions affect real lineups.
Week 1 is always a little different. We have spent the entire offseason convincing ourselves we know exactly how these teams will operate, and by Sunday afternoon some of those assumptions are going to look straight up stooopid. That uncertainty does not mean we avoid the chalk, but it means we need to use it properly.
Slate Overview
Happy Jahmyr Gibbs weekend to all those who celebrate. 40%+ shows drafters input him at RB first and then move on. He is not negotiable as a cash player (for real, I expected 95% pOwn in cash), but for tournaments, this creates some opportunity. Along with Gibbs, here are the other 20%+ owned players.
Where the slate is open. QB. The highest-owned QB doesn’t eclipse 12%, so this position could be the photo finish for some big money. Some of the best players in our game are available, so I suggest opening up the QB player pool and taking more than normal.
Slate pressure points. How much budget am I putting at each position? Week 1 pricing is always softer, so it leads to more duped lineups and the mouth-breathing field smashing in the kewl kid plays that are obvious.
How much Gibbs/Ja’Marr/Mayer is too much? I do not hate knowing one of four lineups contains Mayer. Because if he fails, there are tons of opportunities with players like Tyler Warren with a fraction of the ownership.
Trey McBride is 5%?… What are we doing, people?
Ownership Notes
Quarterback
- Jared Goff 11.7%: Detroit carries one of the highest team totals, but Gibbs can steal the TDs. Will be interesting to see the ownership of those two together. I do not hate playing both in tournaments. In large field, I would not be scared to triple stack him (Gibbs/Amon-Ra OR Jamo/LaPorta).
- Justin Herbert 9.7%: Big team total. Honestly, thought this would be higher. The spread moved down a point, and the Chargers historically play close games in Week 1 (16 of the last 20 years were decided by one point).
- Joe Burrow 7.9%: Highest QB projection on the slate in one of the best scoring environments (in my projections). This is too low, and I will be overweight, especially considering Ja’Marr Chase is at 27.8%.
- Caleb Williams 5.9%: Competitive game environment with enough scoring upside to matter. One of the cleaner ways to get away from the higher-rostered QB tiers and maintain ceiling outcome.
- Josh Allen 2.9%: Tougher matchup, but elite ceiling at almost no ownership. I will be overweight with such low ownership.
- Jayden Daniels 1.1%: Road underdog script should keep him aggressive. His rushing upside alone almost pays this off.
Running Back
- Jahmyr Gibbs 42.4%: The slate-defining decision at RB. DET has plenty of scoring equity, but any lineup without Gibbs immediately becomes different.
- De’Von Achane 15.4%: PPR-scam can create ceiling at less than half the ownership of Gibbs. He is one of the easiest ways to spend up at RB without following the field, and his per-touch efficiency is ridiculous.
- Derrick Henry 13.8%: TD equity remains the appeal. A competitive game against IND would keep two scores on the ground in play.
- Saquon Barkley 13.4%: His 21.7-point projection trails only Gibbs among RBs in this set. This is a nice projection/ownership spot.
- Omarion Hampton 12.7%: Strong scoring environment with LAC favored heavily. The concern is how much of the offense runs through Herbert/Ladd/other dudes before the game gets comfortable. Keaton Mitchell coming off the injury report caps his opportunity ceiling.
- Jaylen Warren 4.1%: One of my favorite ways to move below the main ownership tier. Receiving work gives him multiple paths to upside, and he dropped a 32-burger last year vs. DET, proving he can hit tail-end outcomes.
- Quinshon Judkins 2.7%: The field is barely touching him despite a role that can produce real volume. This is the type of uncertainty I love in MME.
- Bhayshul Tuten 1.1%: Pure tournament volatility. The JAX backfield is uncertain, but at around 1%, we are being compensated for taking on that uncertainty.
Wide Receiver
- Ja’Marr Chase 27.8%: Highest owned WR, but also the best projected ceiling at the position. Last year, Chase destroyed people and did terrible in Week 1. I will be slightly underweight, but this number is fair.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown 23.9%: Expensive chalk attached to a massive DET total. He gives direct leverage off the 42% Gibbs ownership, so there is a game theory angle here.
- Chris Olave 21.2%: The price tag is doing the heavy lifting here. At this ownership, the question becomes: can he find the same ceiling as Ja’Marr and Amon-Ra?
- Zay Flowers 13.6%: This is surprising. This feels like a WR convenience click more than a strong play outright due to his midrange price tag. He will likely see a lot of Sauce Gardner, and I don’t like him as much as the field. He’s fine for BAL stacks or IND runbacks.
- Ladd McConkey 12.1%: Strong team total with Herbert carrying ownership too. The concern is how much passing volume remains if the Chargers control the game. I like Quej and Tre Harris with Herbert better in large-field lottos.
- Michael Pittman Jr. 3.8%: Cheap, low-owned, and positioned to avoid the toughest part of the matchup.
- Favorite Projection/Ownership Plays: Christian Watson & Luther Burden.
Tight End
- Michael Mayer 26%: He just got paid to the tune of 3 years, $45M. I have no issue taking him at this ownership, but remember, when you pay down, you are going to miss out on some mid-tier WRs with ceiling (Watson, Burden, etc.) because you get some neat builds with the studs. Make sure you do not end up with a bunch of duplicate lineups as the field.
- Juwan Johnson 12.1%: Affordable exposure for a TE that likely acts more like a WR2.
- Sam LaPorta 11.7%: Another way to attack the DET scoring environment while getting away from Gibbs and Amon-Ra constructions.
- Tyler Warren, 9.4%: Strong projection relative to the position without forcing you into the most popular TE build. The salary is hawt hawt hawt.
- Trey McBride 5.0%: Elite ceiling at a fraction of Mayer’s ownership. I will be way over the field here. This is my favorite play of the week.
- Kyle Pitts 3.0%: Can he repeat what he did in Week 15 last year? It was the highest-scoring single TE game in fantasy history, and I do not mind the gamble at 3%.
DST
- I don’t like chalky defenses. It’s the most volatile position in DFS. Even the worst DST can score a pick-six or scoop-and-score.
- Jaguars 12.2%: Highest projected DST on the slate, and the field sees it. Strong play, but $3,400 plus double-digit ownership makes them far from mandatory.
- Jets 10.2%: Cheap at $2,500 and facing TEN. The salary relief is the real appeal if it helps upgrade a skill position, and Cam Ward hasn’t exactly looked good in the preseason.
- Browns, 8.0%: At only $2,100, CLE opens up almost any roster construction. If Jared Verse can fill at least 80% of the shoes Myles Garrett left, this unit may be better than we realize.
- Lions, 5.1%: Interesting leverage in a game where DET is expected to control things. A Saints comeback script could create more dropbacks and more opportunities for sacks and turnovers.
- Chargers, 5.0%: WUT? One of the highest projected defenses on the slate at only 5% ownership!?! They’re worth every penny, and I will be overweight. Their D is legit and had some of the best sack metrics with a lower blitz %.
Late Swap
If you are winning after the early games, there is plenty of afternoon chalk available to block the field. If you are losing, you are not long on options either.
| Pos | Chalk | Proj. Own | Lower Owned Pivots | |
| QB | Justin Herbert | 10.30% | Jordan Love (3.2%) | Jayden Daniels (1.1%) |
| RB | De’Von Achane | 15.40% | MarShawn Lloyd (5.5%) | |
| RB | Saquon Barkley | 13.40% | Jordan Mason (1%) | |
| RB | Omarion Hampton | 12.70% | Aaron Jones (1.6%) | |
| WR | Ladd McConkey | 12.10% | Christian Watson (7.3%) | Marvin Harrison Jr. (5.2%) |
| WR | Justin Jefferson | 10.90% | Terry McLaurin (4.4%) | Jayden Reed (3.7%) |
| WR | Tre Tucker | 11.50% | Jordan Addison (2.6%) | |
| WR | Quentin Johnston | 11.00% | Michael Wilson (1.9%) | |
| TE | Michael Mayer | 25.40% | Trey McBride (5%) | TJ Hockenson (4.7%) |
| DST | Raiders | 5.90% | Packers (1.5%) | |
| DST | Chargers | 5.00% | Eagles (3.6%) | |
Final Thoughts
1. Mix up defenses. A few years ago, the Washington Commanders came in at 36% in Week 1. That is ignorant. Even if teams do control a game, it does not guarantee sacks, turnovers, etc., to ensure fantasy points. Get nasty in large field.
2. Favorite Stack: Joe Burrow/Chase Brown/Ja’Marr Chase or Tee Higgins.
3. Favorite Leverage:
| QB | RB | WR | TE | DST |
| Baker Mayfield | Chase Brown | Luther Burden III | Tucker Kraft | Vikings |
| Kyler Murray | D’Andre Swift | Michael Pittman Jr. | Dalton Kincaid | Dolphins |
None of these plays require a massive leap from the stronger projected options on the slate. I would rather take these types of calculated swings than simply hunt for 1% players.
4. Do Not Overthink the Chalk. This is not a slate where I feel the need to fade every popular player just to be different. Gibbs, Chase, Amon Ra, and some of the other chalk can absolutely be part of tournament-winning lineups, but I do not want all of them together without a clear plan for getting different somewhere else.