2023 NFL Draft Rookie Profile: Jonathan Mingo (Fantasy Football)

Which college programs have produced the most productive wide receivers in the NFL? Immediately, LSU and Alabama come to mind as we have seen Odell Beckham Jr, Justin Jefferson, and Amari Cooper succeed early in their careers. In recent seasons, however, Ole Miss has quietly produced multiple top-tier prospects with A.J. Brown and D.K. Metcalf leading the way. 

We could see another receiver out of Mississippi selected in this year’s draft with Jonathan Mingo currently projected as a borderline day-two pick. How does Mingo compare to some of the recent Ole Miss prospects? Where does he rank among the rest of this wide receiver class? Let’s find out!

Editors Note: This article is part of our Rookie Profile series, which will continue until the 2023 NFL Draft. For more on each rookie, check out Andy, Mike, and Jason’s exclusive rookie rankings and production profiles found only in the Dynasty Pass, part of the UDK+ for 2023.

College Production Profile

Jonathan Mingo started his collegiate career as a four-star recruit, initially receiving offers from a variety of programs such as Georgia and Notre Dame. However, with D.K. Metcalf and A.J. Brown declaring for the NFL, Mingo committed to Ole Miss with plenty of vacated opportunities available in that offense. Unfortunately, as you can see above, that did not translate into immediate production. A significant reason for his lack of opportunities was the presence of Elijah Moore – who took a sizable step forward and would lead the Rebels in receiving production in 2019 and 2020. While playing behind a future second-round pick should not come as a surprise, it was more concerning that Mingo was buried in the depth chart behind multiple undrafted prospects in Dontario Drummond, Jerrion Ealy, and Kenny Yeboah.

Even after Moore declared for the draft, Mingo continued to play behind Drummond in 2021 before suffering a season-ending foot injury. And while we did see some marginal improvements across multiple metrics, his numbers left plenty of room for improvement as we generally want to see prospects dominate by their junior season. To provide perspective, a top-24 fantasy wide receiver averages about 2.44 receiving yards per team pass attempt in their 3rd collegiate season. As you can see below, even in an expanded role, Mingo did not meet that threshold.

Mingo finally had his breakout season in his senior year as he averaged 28.9% of the team’s receiving yards and 2.35 receiving yards per team pass attempt. While this does provide some optimism, he remained the WR2 for the Rebels as he was slightly outproduced by Malik Heath – a senior who is projected to be a UDFA in this year’s draft. Furthermore, his lack of early-career involvement remains a significant red flag. So when we compare him to some of the recent wide receivers coming out of Ole Miss, Mingo ranks near the bottom in multiple metrics. For comparison, below is a quick overview of each player’s early-career production (freshman through their junior season) using the predictive metric of receiving yards per team pass attempt:

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• A.J. Brown: 2.36
• D.K. Metcalf: 1.67
• Elijah Moore: 2.44
• Jonathan Mingo: 1.31

Clearly, Mingo is the fourth-best receiver of that group. And even though Metcalf’s production was only marginally higher, that should not come as a surprise as he played alongside an elite wide receiver (Brown) for his entire collegiate career. Mingo, on the other hand, was outplayed by several undrafted NFL prospects. In short, his production profile is one that I would typically avoid in my dynasty leagues as it presents multiple red flags that have historically resulted in much lower hit rates in fantasy football.

Measurables

This is where Jonathan Mingo can separate himself from the rest of the group. In a class filled with multiple smaller slot wide receivers, Mingo is one of the few prospects that weighed in at over six feet and 220 pounds. His combine results were equally impressive as well. With a 4.46 40-time, per NFL Combine Results, Mingo ranks in the 79th percentile. His 10-yard (1.52) and 20-yard splits (2.56) were even better, ranking in the 89th and 91st percentile respectively. Furthermore, his vertical and broad jump are within the top tier as well, ranking within the +90th percentile range among wide receivers. For comparison, Mingo achieved similar numbers to Josh Downs, despite weighing nearly 50 pounds heavier. It is important to remember that athletic numbers are only a small piece of the puzzle of wide receiver prospecting. Historically, the correlation between fantasy production and some of these metrics has been fairly low. So while Mingo does possess elite athleticism, it should not hide some of the issues we see in the rest of his prospect profile.

What’s on Tape

As part of my prospect evaluation, I watch anywhere between four to six games of film to gain a better understanding of each player’s strengths and weaknesses. Below are my observations on Jonathan Mingo’s film.

Games Viewed: 2021 vs Tulane, 2022 vs Vanderbilt, 2022 vs LSU, 2022 vs Georgia Tech

1. Consistent Yards After the Catch Opportunities

One of Mingo’s strengths is his play-making ability in open space, displaying a combination of elusiveness, speed, and physicality to gain yards after the catch. This was a significant part of his game as Ole Miss often used him in WR screens, relying on his ability to create yardage in open space. Naturally, his size helps tremendously. At 6’2” and over 220 pounds, smaller defensive backs struggled against his physicality as Mingo frequently leveraged his frame to push for additional yards. In the following play against Vanderbilt, Mingo showcases his YAC ability as he brushes off the linebacker’s tackle and then accelerates into the open field for the 70-yard touchdown.

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2. Consistent Physicality and Success as a Blocker

In 2022, Ole Miss was one of the most run-heavy offenses in college football as they only passed the ball on 39% of their total plays. This should not come as a surprise as their offense featured two talented running backs: Zach Evans and Quinshon Judkins (a top RB prospect in the 2025 class). As a result, Mingo was asked to block on a significant amount of plays – a facet of the game in which he was frequently successful. He displayed consistent physicality and engagement blocking downfield, using his strength to create opportunities for his running backs. While his blocking will not generate fantasy points at the next level, it could lead to immediate playing time. And in a class filled with smaller receivers, Mingo’s blocking could be one of the many reasons a team decides to select him in the second or third round of the NFL draft.

3. Impressive Ball Tracking Ability on Deeper Routes

While Mingo excelled after the catch, he also showcased an ability to be an effective deep threat. He has enough speed to get behind the defense, and also the ball-tracking ability to adjust his route and connect on deeper throws. Even if a throw was slightly off target, Mingo is athletic enough to pursue the ball and salvage the play. In the clip below against LSU, Mingo displays some of his ball-tracking prowess as he reaches for the deep reception, maintaining control as he lunges to the ground.

What’s Not on Tape

1. Frequent Usage as an Intermediate Route Runner

While Mingo did take on an expanded role in the 2022 season, his route tree was still very limited. As I mentioned above, he was frequently used on short routes as Ole Miss relied on his ability to produce after the catch. Along with a healthy dose of go and post routes, that essentially encompassed the majority of Mingo’s opportunities in my four-game sample size. Surprisingly, he was sparingly used in the intermediate game, rarely running routes within 10 to 15 yards from the line of scrimmage. This was very clearly driven by his role in the Rebels’ offense, which could foreshadow his potential usage in the NFL.

2. Games with High Reception Totals

Because of his limited route tree, Mingo had to rely on his big-play ability to produce last season. He was rarely utilized as a possession receiver, totaling over five receptions in only 20.6% of his games. For comparison, Jordan Addison – who was featured at both Pittsburgh and USC – exceeded the five-reception mark in 80% of his games. If Mingo’s role remains unchanged as he transitions into the NFL, this could limit his upside and consistency for fantasy purposes, especially in PPR leagues.

2023 Fantasy and Dynasty Outlook

As with most skill position players, draft capital will heavily determine their chances of producing right out of the gate. For Jonathan Mingo, it will be especially important considering the red flags in his overall profile. Not only is he a non-early declare prospect, but he also did not break out until his senior year. Why does that matter? We historically see higher hit rates (top-24 fantasy seasons) from prospects who declared early and were highly productive early in their careers. To provide additional context, here are the fantasy hit rates for wide receivers based on draft capital only:

• Day One: 45.2%
• Day Two: 32.3%
• Day Three: 2.9%

What happens when we isolate the sample size to early declares with positive production profiles in their first two collegiate seasons?

• Day One: 76.9%
• Day Two: 46.2%
• Day Three: 12.5%

Since Mingo does not check any of those boxes, his hit rate would be very slim if he slips into day three territory. Finally, let’s take a look at some of the wide receivers that entered the league with a similar profile to Jonathan Mingo (since 2010):

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• Non-Early Declare
• 220 to 230 pounds
• 1.50 to 2.00 Career Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt
• 20 to 25% Career Receiving Yards Market Share

This list consists of:

• Juron Criner
• Junior Hemingway
• Quincy Enunwa
• Ty Montgomery
• Deangelo Yancey
• Hakeem Butler
• Michael Pittman Jr.
• Collin Johnson

As you can see above, draft capital becomes extremely important as the two most productive players – Ty Montgomery and Michael Pittman Jr. – were selected with day two capital. However, the rest of this group is mostly unsurprising, headlined by several day-three players who barely produced in the NFL. In short, Mingo is a very risky prospect as his range of outcomes is wider than some of the other players in this class. While he could be an intriguing pick in the later rounds of rookie drafts, I would much rather bank on a player who offers a much more accomplished profile entering the league.