Predicting the Top-12 QBs for Week 11 (Fantasy Football)
Last week’s prediction article struck gold on some low-end streaming options including Daniel Jones‘ 4-TDs, Kyler Murray and Josh Allen. However, the cover boy Philip Rivers let me down in a tremendous way as my home league team felt the pain. 8-out-12 once again puts the article close to 60% for the season.
The fantasy playoffs are on the line so choose your QB carefully. Here is a reminder for how I organize each week’s top-12 before we move on to discuss Week 11.
Four-Sures: Top-4 for the week and definite must-starts.
Com-Four-table: Four QBs with relatively safe floors with added upside to be a solid top-12 choice.
Four In the Door: Four QBs who could sneak into the top-12 including the Ballers “Stream of the Week” options and at least one daring dart throw.
Four-Get-About-It: Four QBs I’m fading this week and projecting to finish outside the top 12. Often this includes some higher-profile QBs with tougher matchups that could underperform.
***IMPORTANT NOTE*** There are 15-20 viable QB starts each week. If you don’t see your guy listed on here, that’s ok. This article is about predicting the top-12 not necessarily who is safest. I’d strongly advise you to follow Andy, Mike, and Jason’s advice for where they have QBs ranked for Week 11.
Four-Sures
Lamar Jackson vs HOU
He’s unreal and each week somehow tops what he’s done the week before. L-Jax has six top-5 QB performances aided by his 78 rushing yards per game, the highest total for a QB in NFL history. The Ravens rank 1st in Pts Per Drive (3.02) and should keep things going with a 27-point implied team total. It helps that the Texans are beatable surrendering the 6th most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to QBs.
Patrick Mahomes @ LAC
Mahomes returned with a vengeance last week although the Chiefs suprising;y lost to Ryan Tannehill and the Titans. This game has the highest over/under (52.5) of the week and you know THE QB1 is going to be a big part of it. The Chiefs have the most 20+ pass yard plays in the league (4.5 per game) so expect Tyreek Hill or Mecole Hardman to take a slant or two to the house.
Abbie Parr/Getty Images
Deshaun Watson @ BAL
Watson has been as good as fantasy owners could possibly desire with five top-5 QB performances on the year. The odds are stacked against him as Baltimore has given up only one top-12 QB performance on the year. But in order to keep pace with Lamar Jackson and company, expect Watson to take the responsibility squarely on his shoulders. Luckily, Baltimore has one of the lowest sack rates in the league and been torched on some down-the-field plays (6th highest percentage 20+ yard completions).
Drew Brees @ TB
Listen last week was an anamoly and I am speaking as a Falcons fan. Somehow the punchless Atlanta defense registered six sacks and held Brees and the Saints to nine points in New Orleans. Fantasy owners should turn the page and see the glorious matchup this week. The Buccaneers are allowing the most passing yards per game, rank 27th in pass DVOA and have allowed the second-most fantasy points to QBs. Brees is averaging 283 passing yards and two TDs per game in his career versus Tampa Bay. Fire away.
Com-Four-table
Dak Prescott @ DET
If not for Lamar Jackson’s insane season, Dak has arguably been the most valuable late-round QB this year. He has been a top-8 QB in seven of his nine games and the 3rd MOST passing ypg (309). Even on the road, the Lions are easy prey giving up the 5th most fantasy points to opposing QBs and seven QB1 performances in a row. Expect Amari Cooper to dominate as Dak has a 143.1 Passer Rating when targeting his WR1 this season.
Josh Allen @ MIA
Allen has been more steady than fantasy great in 2019 but his rushing floor still remain his calling card. Last year in two games versus Miami, Allen rushed for nine times for 135 yards and another nine times for 95 yards and two TDs. Miami ranks 30th in pass DVOA and given up the 7th most fantasy points to opposing QBs. Playing on the road ain’t fun but the warm weather and soft defense in Miami is always welcomed. Josh Stallion is Mike’s Start of the Week. Excellent!
Jameis Winston vs NO
The Famous One has been a top-10 QB three weeks in a row and has one of the most intriguing shootout potentials of the week against New Orleans. He ranks 6th in passing yards and first in INTs on the season. While you might be holding your breath, it’s the game total (50.5), volume (39.4 pass attempts per game), and down-the-field emphasis (6.8 “deep attempts” per game) that give Winston a legitimate top-5 ceiling. Winston is Jason’s Start of the Week and the Footballers Consensus QB7.
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Jimmy Garoppolo vs ARI
The Handsome One has started to hit his groove recently and torched these Cardinals for four TDs just two weeks ago. The 49ers have the 2nd highest team implied total (28.3) as 11-point home favorites. The Cardinals rank 26th in pass DVOA and allowed the most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to QBs. It’s a recipe for success although he might need to be downgraded if both Emmanuel Sanders and George Kittle are declared out.*
Four In the Door
Tom Brady @ PHI
Brady has felt more like an afterthought this season as the incredible defensive stats have outshined the Patriots offense. Regardless, the Eagles have allowed five QB1 weeks and are particularly inept against pass-catching RBs. Hello, James White! You can expect Philly to shut down the run ranking 8th in run DVOA. With a 24-point team implied total, Brady can carve up this secondary. He’s surprisingly thrown for the 4th most 20+ Yard Pass Plays on the season. Jason is the highest on Brady ranking him as QB7.
Getty Images / Steven Ryan
Kyle Allen vs ATL
Somehow, someway the Falcons registered six sacks last week against Drew Brees. They still rank 32nd in adjusted sack rate and are poor in a number of areas. They’ve allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to QBs and rank 31st in pass DVOA according to Football Outsiders. Atlanta has given up six QB1 performances on the season. Everything is pointing towards Allen, as a 5.5-point home favorite in a game with a 49.5 total, to finish as a solid QB1.
Derek Carr vs CIN
Carr has actually been a good real-life QB this year and the Raiders somehow have an outside shot at the playoffs in the AFC. It’s wild to see that the Raiders have the highest team implied total (29.3) of the weekend… THE RAIDERS! Even if you believe it will be a blowout versus the Bengals, Carr has a great chance to carry the Raiders with 250+ yards and a couple of TDs. Cincinnati has given up top-10 fantasy performances in four of the last five matchups and rank dead last in pass DVOA. He’s been a QB1 two of the last three weeks and is Andy’s Start of the Week. Send in the Carrrrrr.
Philip Rivers vs KC
Rivers was beyond frustrating last week and buried my home league team early in the week with his pitiful performance in Oakland. If you are willing to roll the dice again, the matchup sits pretty with the highest total of the weekend. Kansas City has allowed seven QB1 weeks, including three in a row. If Rivers is going to keep pace with Mahomes, he’s likely going to end up near 300 passing yards and couple it with two TDs. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams‘ Air Yards are piling up so we’re looking at some positive TD regression for those two WRs. Rivers is the Footballers’ Consensus QB12 despite Jason’s constant fits with the veteran QB.
*NOTE: If Jimmy G’s weapons are out, I like Matt Ryan at Carolina. He’s averaging 320 passing yards per game versus the Panthers over last three years. The Falcons are also throwing at the highest rate (72.9%) in the league.
Four-Get-About-It
Carson Wentz vs NE
It’s the Patriots defense. If Wentz had DeSean Jackson at his disposal, this entire Eagles offense looks different but right now there is very little speed present beyond Miles Sanders. The Patriots rank 2nd in pass DVOA and 6th in adjusted sack rate. This rematch of Super Bowl 52 doesn’t set up well for the Eagles and Wentz.
Kyler Murray @ SF
It’s time to sit the rookie a week before their bye. Yes he somehow finished as a QB1 against this team a couple weeks ago thanks to a long bomb with Andy Isabella. But on the road as a heavy underdog doesn’t sit well. The 49ers rank 1st in pass DVOA and 1st in adjusted sack rate. It doesn’t get any better than that.
Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images
Kirk Cousins vs DEN
This has all the makings of a slow, grind-it-out battle between two solid defenses. I hate the Vegas line on the game as 10-points is a lot to give up versus a stout Denver defense. They’ve allowed the 4th fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points to QBs and rank 6th in defensive DVOA. Dalvin Cook should see 25+ touches as Mike Zimmer prefers. Cousins’ ceiling and floor is among the widest ranges at the QB position and I’m not willing to guess this week even at home. Cousins has been a top-10 QB five of the last six weeks but I’m saying the luck runs out.
Jared Goff vs CHI
This is another game in which the defenses could be the headline. Goff is the QB18 on the season for a reason with three games outside the top-25 at the position! With a 41-point total, I’m not too excited about the potential for a shootout. The Bears rank 7th in pass DVOA and have allowed the 7th fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points to oppsong QBs. In fact, Chicago has allowed just two QB1 weeks on the season and the highest on the road was QB15 in Week 2, none other than Joe Flacco.
Last Week: 8/12
2019 Overall Percentage: 58%
Comments
Ya. I have Garoppolo, Carr and Ryan and wondering who should start over who?
No Matty Ice again?