Predicting the Top-12 QBs for Week 10 (Fantasy Football)
Last week’s prediction article gave us a Russell Wilson 5-TD explosion coupled with a horrific Gardner Minshew self-implosion. The dream that was Ryan Fitzpatrick materialized as a top-10 play while Tom Brady and the Patriots finally died out. 8-out-12 for the week was an excellent week while the bye-apocalypse of Week 10 will make for some interesting streaming options.
We’re in the double-digits people where fantasy playoffs are soon to be on the line.
Here is a reminder for how I organize each week’s top-12 before we move on to discuss Week 10.
Four-Sures: Top-4 for the week and definite must-starts.
Com-Four-table: Four QBs with relatively safe floors with added upside to be a solid top-12 choice.
Four In the Door: Four QBs who could sneak into the top-12 including the Ballers “Stream of the Week” options and at least one daring dart throw.
Four-Get-About-It: Four QBs I’m fading this week and projecting to finish outside the top 12. Often this includes some higher-profile QBs with tougher matchups that could underperform.
***IMPORTANT NOTE*** There are 15-20 viable QB starts each week. If you don’t see your guy listed on here, that’s ok. This article is about predicting the top-12 not necessarily who is safest. I’d strongly advise you to follow Andy, Mike, and Jason’s advice for where they have QBs ranked for Week 10.
Four-Sures
Lamar Jackson @ CIN
Jackson showed the world on Sunday night that he is playing a video game while the rest of us are stuck at geriatrics shuffleboard contest. He’s on pace for the most rushing yards by a QB in league history which for fantasy is the ultimate cheat code. He torched these Bengals for 152 yards on the ground in Week 7 and their pass defense is among the worst. The Bengals rank 30th in pass DVOA, 29th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs, and the most 20+ yard passing plays in the league. Duh.
Drew Brees vs ATL
Before the bye week, Brees returned from his injury with a vengeance with 373 yards and three TDs. the Saints have the highest team implied total (31.8) on the week at home in the Superdome versus Atlanta. It’s been easy to pick on the Falcons as they rank 31st in pass DVOA and 31st in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs. Brees at home is a lock button.
Sean Gardner/Getty Images
Aaron Rodgers vs CAR
Rodgers has turned it on averaging the 3rd most fantasy points among QBs over the last month. The Panthers’ defense isn’t as fearsome as it used to be especially in the secondary. They’ve allowed the 6th most scheduled adjusted fantasy points to opposing WRS and rank dead last in DVOA versus RBs. This is a recipe for Davante Adams and Aaron Jones to light it up via Rodgers. Rodgers is averaging 5.7 red zone attempts per league which means short range TDs. He’s the Footballers’ Consensus QB3 on the week.
Russell Wilson @ SF
Five TDs and a glorious overtime win versus the Buccaneers was one of the main storylines of Week 9. Wilson is the frontrunner for league MVP as he leads QBs in TD passes, QB Rating, and INT percentage. This is the toughest test of the year on the road in San Francisco. The 49ers have shut down the pass all year until last week against Wilson’s protege, Kyler Murray. He’s still a top-5 play for me and will be needed because the run game doesn’t have much of a chance against this stone-cold front.
Com-Four-table
Patrick Mahomes @ TEN
There he is! Fantasy owners and the NFL are rejoicing for the hopeful return of the league MVP. He will shortly return to the “Four-Sures” section but his status isn’t 100% certain and this matchup isn’t automatic. While the Titans are middle of the pack against QBs fantasy-wise, they’ve allowed the eighth-most passing yards in the league and the Chiefs have a healthy 26.3 team implied total. He’s Patrick Mahomes. Even with one leg he’s a top-10 QB.
Philip Rivers @ OAK
Rivers and the Chargers looked like themselves finally last week with a convincing home win over the Packers. This Thursday night AFC West matchup is just what Keenan Allen and Mike Williams need to get right. This Raiders defense that ranks 29th in Pass DVOA, 27th in yards per game allowed, and 30th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs. With a 48.5 over/under even on a short week, I expect Rivers to throw for 250+ and two TDs with ease.
Jameis Winston vs ARZ
Winston and the Bucs showed up to play in Seattle falling in overtime but they pushed Russell Wilson to the edge. This matchup at home versus Arizona is another juicy one as the Bucs carry the 2nd highest team implied total (28) of the week. The Cardinals rank 28th in pass DVOA, given up the most passing yards in the league and the most schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs. I picked him up a few weeks ago and started him last week with this cakewalk matchup in my view.
Andrew Dieb/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Jimmy Garoppolo vs SEA
This Monday Night game sets up well for Jimmy G to continue after a career-high four TDs. The Seahawks have given up the second-most passing yards in the league and rank 31st in adjusted sack rate. That is a deadly combo for the 49ers QB to sit in the pocket and pick apart the secondary with Emmanuel Sanders and George Kittle. The Handsome One is Andy’s Stream of the Week.
Four In the Door
Josh Allen @ CLE
Allen hasn’t displayed the massive upside he won people fantasy championships with last year as he has only two weeks inside top-10 and none higher than QB7. This road matchup sets up well for the underdog to have to come from behind. Cleveland has allowed the 8th most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to QBs over the last month of play. With Allen averaging 4.6 “deep attempts” per game, I can see him connecting with John Brown on a long one and rushing for 40+ yards and a TD. I like this game to sneakily go over the 40.5 total.
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Kyler Murray @ TB
It took Kyler one huge Andy Isabella play late to lay claim to the title of the first QB to turn in a top-12 performance against the 49ers all year long. He gets an easier test this week against a Bucs defense that ranks 28th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs. Tampa Bay ranks 26th in pass DVOA and has allowed the 5th most total passing yards in the NFL. If Kyler can match 35 pass attempts per game and 6.2 rush attempts per game, he’s likely in the conversation as a top-10 guy playing catch up with another former #1 overall pick, Jameis Winston. Murray is the Footballers Consensus QB5 on the week.
Colts QB vs MIA
Whether it is Jacoby Brissett or Brian Hoyer, the Colts QB is in play this week at home against Miami. Hoyer threw for three TDs last week in replacement duty on the road in Pittsburgh so he’s serviceable. You know how bad the Dolphins defense has been this year: 32nd in pass DVOA, 32nd in opponent 20+ pass play %, and the 6th most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to opposing QBs. Yes the Dolphins got their first win last week and we feel happy for them in a cute pre-schooler brought home a drawing from class kind of way. But it’s time to take that kids lunch money once again and trust one of these guys as a low-end, steady streamer.
Daniel Jones @ NYJ
Here’s the wild-card of the week. Jones is as streaky as they get posting weeks as the QB2 & QB1 while also finishing every other game outside the top-16. I like this “home” matchup against the Jets in the Battle for the Soul of New York, featuring Mr. B-Hole himself Adam Gase. The Jets have given up the 10th most passing yards and the 10th most fantasy points to opposing QBs over the last month. Jones always has some rushing equity as he’s averaged 46 yards per game on the ground in his last three contests. He’s a swing for the fences play in DFS.
Four-Get-About-It
Ryan Tannehill vs KC
Tannehill has been more than competent replacing Marcus Mariota and the passing game as taken a step towards being somewhat respectable. He will be a popular streamer this week dueling alongside Patrick Mahomes. I’m a bit scared that time will run out and he’ll turn into a pumpkin. The Chiefs rank 4th in pass DVOA and 11th in overall defensive DVOA. The Chiefs also boast the 8th best-adjusted sack rate which looks even better compared to Tennessee’s 31st ranked offensive line. He could get there on volume but I’ll pass for the options I trust a little bit more.
Jacob Kupferman/Getty Images
Kirk Cousins @ DAL
Cousins has been up-and-down depending on the matchup and this is one I would be staying away from. The Cowboys rank 5th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs and 23rd in passing yards allowed. Cousins on the road is one play away from self-imploding and if he will be without Adam Thielen, I don’t like his chances in Dallas.
Matthew Stafford @ CHI
Stafford has been on a roll rediscovering the downfield manic bomber he once was and returning to being a higher-end fantasy QB. I’m willing to jump off the train for a bit on the road in Chicago. The Bears rank 6th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs and 7th in pass DVOA. Less than 300 years seems in the cards and I’ll take the under in this lower scoring divisional affair.
Jared Goff @ PIT
Goff and the Rams are coming off the bye but he’s one of the streaky QBs with extreme home/road splits that I typically stay away from in these spots. On the road, Goff averages just 235 passing yards and 60% completion rate for his career. The Steelers defensive front is great coming in with the 2nd highest adjusted sack rate in the league. They also rank 6th in pass DVOA and 5th in overall defensive DVOA. Jarrrrred Get-offf my starting QB spot for Week 10.
Last Week: 8/12
2019 Overall Percentage: 57.4%