Fantasy Football: Buy or Sell Week 10

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Longtime listeners of the Fantasy Footballers will surely recognize the segment “Buy or Sell”, as this recurring segment appears regularly both in-season and offseason. But, if you are unfamiliar with this segment, Andy, Mike and Jason regularly discuss whether they agree or disagree that a given player will meet or exceed some given statistical threshold. For example, the Footballers might discuss whether they think D’Andre Swift will finish as a top-12 running back in 2021, and the Ballers who agree with this statement will “buy” it, whereas disbelievers will “sell”. These discussions are akin to “prop” bets, and they are a lot of fun.

Throughout the season I will recap Andy, Mike, and Jason’s “Buy or Sell” discussions on the Podcast and add my two cents to each line. And as an added bonus I will discuss three extra thresholds. Generally, these props will come from fantasy website projections, so they aren’t meant to be easy!

These predictions are meant to drive engagement! So, let me know if you hate or appreciate my predictions either in the comments here or on Twitter: @NateHenryFF.

Buy or Sell Scoreboard

There is no value in predictions without accountability! So, as promised, I will keep score for myself and Andy, Mike, and Jason (whether they like it or not!) Here are Week 9’s results:

Player Line Andy Mike Jason Nate
D.J. Moore Top 20 WR Sell Buy Sell Sell
Kyle Pitts 10+ points Buy Sell Sell Sell
Darrell Williams Top 20 RB Buy Buy Buy Buy
Ryan Tannehill 2+ TDs Buy
Javonte Williams 15 receiving yards Buy
Diontae Johnson 7+ targets Buy
2021 Overall 52% (12/23) 58% (15/26) 58% (15/26) 57% (31/54)

Jason was the only person with a decent week because Andy, Mike and I all correctly guessed only 33% of our Buy/Sell lines. My luck with my Bonus Buy/Sell section is exactly why I don’t gamble.

Sam Darnold continued to weigh down D.J. Moore like an anchor, resulting in a WR46 finish. Darrell Williams couldn’t find the endzone (not unlike the Chiefs team as a whole) and finished the week RB31. In yet another disappointing performance, Kyle Pitts only scored 7.7 fantasy points.

I was unbelievably unlucky in my Bonus Buy/Sell. Ryan Tannehill accounted for two touchdowns, as predicted, but I had to go and specify passing touchdowns when making my picks last week (Tannehill had one rushing touchdown and one passing touchdown). Also, Diontae Johnson managed only 6 targets, which is highly unusual, and Javonte Williams didn’t see a single target, let alone a catch. He did all his damage on the ground, looking fantastic, but a very surprising game script resulted in very few passing plays by the Denver offense, most of which were designed plays to get Jerry Jeudy the ball. I certainly didn’t see the Broncos routing the Cowboys one week after trading Von Miller. Alas, gotta do better.

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Week 10 Podcast Buy or Sell Lines

Let’s dive into Buy or Sell from Wednesday’s episode: “Let’s Talk Trades+ TNF Preview, Party Time”.

De’Andre Swift (RB, DET) @ PIT – Top 12 RB

Mike sold because Swift has only been in the top 12 in three weeks due to the Lions’ inability to score very many touchdowns. Jason and Andy agreed noting the unlikely event that Swift finds the end zone. I will be contrarian here and buy. I think the Lions need Swift’s passing game usage to stay close in this game or catch up. I think he gets it done through the air frequently and finds his way into the end zone.

Mike Williams (WR, LAC) vs. MIN –  4 catches

The Podcast guys noted that in each of the past three games, he averaged only two catches. Nevertheless, Jason bought believing that the last three matchups were very tough, and the matchup against Minnesota won’t be so difficult, logic that convinced Andy and Mike to buy as well. I agree. Williams’ string of bad luck should end this week to the tune of 5 catches.

Jalen Hurts (QB, PHI) @ DEN – Top 12 QB

Jason, Mike, and Andy all said it was an easy buy because of Hurts’ rushing floor, which I agree with. I guess we are all going to do well or poorly together!

Nate Henry’s Bonus Buy or Sell

Matt Ryan (QB, ATL) @ DAL – 294 Passing Yards

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The Cowboys’ defense has been solid against the pass, particularly in view of the stellar play by Trevon Diggs. The Falcons remain without their best wide receiver, and so far, Kyle Pitts hasn’t been able to carry the receiving load. 294 yards is a lot for a betting line, so I will take the under on this one.

Najee Harris (RB, PIT) vs. DET – 71 rushing yards

You ought to know that I love to pick against the Lions, and this one is easy. Najee has averaged 89 rushing yards per game in the last four weeks against far better run defenses than the Lions (DEN, SEA, CLE, CHI). He only managed 62 last week against Chicago, but Pittsburgh’s road to a victory should be easier this week. Easy buy here.

Dawson Knox (TE, BUF) @ NYJ – 35 receiving yards

This one is a bit risky, given that Knox is returning from injury. Still, Knox suffered a hand injury, so that shouldn’t affect his ability to run routes and get open. Knox was acting as a bit of a secondary deep threat for Buffalo, so I like him to get over 35 yards here. I am buying an injury discount here, but I think the risk is low.

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