Week 18 Playoff Motivation and Player Incentives (Fantasy Football)
In addition to the usual analysis that it takes to win in NFL DFS and prop betting (matchups, usage, roster percentages, etc.), understanding playoff motivation and individual player incentives can help take our Week 18 prep to the next level. We’ll take a look at the NFL playoff picture and then dive into which players might be playing for a statistical roster bonus in Week 18.
Note: There are two Saturday games this week: PIT @ BAL, HOU @ IND
Week 18. It's time for the #NFLSeasonFinale. pic.twitter.com/KOV6OaZIKy
— NFL (@NFL) January 1, 2024
AFC
1. Baltimore Ravens (13-3)
Scenario: The Ravens have already clinched the #1 seed in the AFC and the first round bye.
Analysis: Baltimore has nothing to play for this week. They’re dealing with some key injuries, especially on the defensive side of the ball. The team has confirmed Lamar Jackson will not play this weekend, along with other key starters. Expect Tyler Huntley to be under center for the Ravens.
2. Miami Dolphins (11-5)
Scenario: The Dolphins can win the AFC East with a win over the Bills on Sunday Night Football. If they lose, they will be the #6 seed.
Analysis: With the division on the line and a home playoff game at stake, expect the starters to go all out.
3. Kansas City Chiefs (10-5)
Scenario: The Chiefs clinched the AFC West last weekend. They are locked into the #3 seed.
Analysis: The Chiefs have nothing to play for next weekend given that they can’t improve their seeding. Andy Reid has rested starters in the past, and he’ll do the same here. He’s already suggested DT Chris Jones (groin), CB L’Jarius Sneed (calf), Isiah Pacheco (quad/shoulder), and Rashee Rice (hamstring) won’t practice this week, so we expect them to sit. The team has already announced Blaine Gabbert will start while Mahomes rests.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-7)
Scenario: If the Jags beat the Titans, they will lock up the AFC South and the #4 seed. If they lose, they’re out of the playoffs.
Analysis: Must win game. Expect starters to go all out. Trevor Lawrence (shoulder) and Zay Jones (hamstring) missed last week. Expect them to push to play even if they’re not quite 100%.
5. Cleveland Browns (11-5)
Scenario: Given that the Ravens won the division, the Browns are locked into the #5 seed.
Analysis: Cleveland has nothing to play for this weekend. They’ve dealt with key injuries to their O-line, secondary and now top two WRs over the last month and a half. Expect any player dealing with injury to sit, but this could be a mass rest situation. On Wednesday, Kevin Stefanski announced they will rest some starters, including QB Joe Flacco. Jeff Driskel will start.
6. Buffalo Bills (10-6)
Scenario: The Bills play the Dolphins on Sunday Night Football in a game that will decide the AFC East. There’s also a scenario where if they lose, they’re of the playoffs.
Analysis: Must win game. Expect starters to go all out.
7. Indianapolis Colts (9-7)
Scenario: The Colts and Texans play each other on Saturday night. The winner of this game will win the AFC South and the #4 seed if the Jaguars lose on Sunday, but the winner will make the playoffs as a wild card if the Jags win. The loser will be out of the playoffs.
Analysis: Must win game. Expect starters to go all out.
8. Houston Texans (9-7)
Scenario: See Above
Analysis: Must win game. Expect starters to go all out.
9. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7)
Scenario: The Steelers need to win in order to have a chance to make the playoffs as. They need to win and have one of the Jags or Bills lose.
Analysis: Must win game. Expect starters to go all out.
Teams Mathematically Eliminated:
- Jets
- Broncos
- Titans
- Patriots
- Chargers
- Bengals
- Raiders
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NFC
1. San Francisco 49ers (12-4)
Scenario: The Niners have already clinched the #1 seed in the NFC and the first round bye.
Analysis: San Francisco has nothing to play for this week as they’ll have the top seed regardless of this weekend’s outcome. Look for key players to rest, especially Christian McCaffrey, who injured his calf last week against Washington. Kyle Shanahan already confirmed that Sam Darnold will start for Brock Purdy. In addition, the Athletic’s Matt Barrows believes Jordan Mason will see an expanded role in Week 18 given that Elijah Mitchell has been battling a knee injury for most of the year.
2. Dallas Cowboys (11-5)
Scenario: The Cowboys can lock up the #2 seed and the NFC East title with a win over the Commanders.
Analysis: The #2 seed in the NFC is extremely valuable as it guarantees two home playoff games and the ability to avoid a tough Niners team until the NFC Championship round. Expect starters to go all out as long as this game is competitive.
3. Detroit Lions (11-5)
Scenario: The Lions are guaranteed to be the #3 or #2 seed as they’re the NFC North champs. They can improve from the #3 to the #2 seed with a win over the Vikings and losses by the Cowboys and the Eagles.
Analysis: Given that the Cowboys play the ‘Manders and the Eagles play the Giants, it’s unlikely that Detroit will win the #2 seed. However, Dan Campbell told reporters on Monday that he will play his starters in Week 18.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-8)
Scenario: The Bucs can win the NFC South and lock up the #4 seed with a win over the Panthers. If they lose, they’re out of the playoffs.
Analysis: Must win game. Expect starters to go all out.
5. Philadelphia Eagles (11-5)
Scenario: The Eagles can still win the NFC East and lock up a top-3 seed with a win over the Giants, but they’ll need the Commanders to beat the Cowboys. If both the Cowboys and Eagles win, the Cowboys win the NFC East.
Analysis: The reeling Eagles gave up a huge opportunity last weekend when they lost to the Cardinals. In addition to mathematically having a chance to win the NFC East, this team desperately needs to get on track heading into the post-season. Expect starters to go all out.
6. Los Angeles Rams (9-7)
Scenario: The Rams clinched a playoff birth last weekend and can’t finish any higher than the #6 seed.
Analysis: LA will either be the #6 or #7 seed, so there’s not much to play for here. Regardless, they’ll travel on the road for the playoffs. Sean McVay has already confirmed QB Matthew Stafford, WR Cooper Kupp, RB Kyren Williams, TE Tyler Higbee and DT Aaron Donald won’t play. Carson Wentz will start. As for stud rookie WR Puka Nacua, Sean McVay said on Wednesday, “I think you’d like to be able to see him get an opportunity to do something special and then be smart with him.” Nacua needs just four receptions and 29 yards to break the NFL rookie records. We can expect him to play a handful of drives to try to reach those milestones.
7. Green Bay Packers (8-8)
Scenario: Green Bay controls its own destiny. If they beat the Bears, they’re in the playoffs as a Wild Card team.
Analysis: Must win game. Expect starters to go all out.
8. Seattle Seahawks (8-8)
Scenario: Seattle can sneak into the playoffs as a Wild Card team if they beat the Cardinals and the Packers lose.
Analysis: Must win game. Expect starters to go all out.
9. New Orleans Saints (8-8)
Scenario: New Orleans can win the NFC South and the #4 seed with a win over the Falcons and a Bucs loss. They can also sneak in as a Wild Card team with a win and losses from the Packers and the Seahawks.
Analysis: Must win game. Expect starters to go all out.
10. Minnesota Vikings (7-9)
Scenario: The Vikings’ playoff hopes are hanging on by a thread after their New Years Eve loss to Green Bay. Technically, they can still sneak into the post-season, but they need to win and have all the teams listed ahead of them in the standings lose. So you’re saying there’s a chance…
Analysis: Must win game. Expect starters to go all out. The team has announced Nick Mullens will start.
11. Atlanta Falcons (7-9)
Scenario: The Falcons can still win the NFC South and the #4 seed with a win over the Saints and a Tampa Bay loss.
Analysis: Must win game. Expect starters to go all out.
Teams Mathematically Eliminated:
- Panthers
- Cardinals
- Commanders
- Giants
- Bears
Player Incentives
Quarterbacks
1. Baker Mayfield will earn an additional $300,000 for each category if he finishes the regular season ranked Top 10 in the NFL or Top 5 in the NFC in: passer rating, TD passes, total yards passing, completion percentage, yards per attempt. Here’s where he ranks among NFL QBs:
- Passer Rating: 9th
- Passing Yards: 8th
- Completion Rate: 18th
- TD Passes: 5th
- Yards per Attempt: 10th
2. Geno Smith will earn an additional $2 Million iff the Seahawks secure a playoff spot.
3. Jordan Love will earn a $500,000 bonus if the Packers win and make the playoffs.
Running Backs
1. Devin Singletary currently has 1,026 scrimmage yards. He’ll earn an additional $125,000 if he can eclipse 1,100 total yards.
2. Alexander Mattison currently has 676 rushing yards. He’ll earn an additional $250,000 if he can reach 750 yards.
3. Austin Ekeler currently has 1,015 scrimmage yards. He’ll earn an additional $100,000 if he can reach 1,125 yards.
Wide Receivers
1. Odell Beckham Jr. currently has 35 catches for 565 yards. He’ll earn an additional $250,000 if he can reach 40 receptions.
2. DeAndre Hopkins currently has 68 catches for 1,011 yards. He’ll earn an additional $1 Million if he can reach 1,050 yards. He’ll also earn an additional $250,000 if he can reach 75 catches and an additional $500k if he hits 75% of the snaps played on the year.
3. Tyreek Hill currently has 1,717 receiving yards. He needs 248 receiving yards to break Calvin Johnson‘s record.
4. Puka Nacua needs just four catches and 29 yards to break the NFL rookie record for receptions and receiving yards in a single season.
Tight Ends
1. Dalton Schultz currently has 54 catches and 593 receiving yards. He’ll earn an additional $250,000 if he can reach 60 receptions and an additional $250,000 if he can reach 700 yards.
2. Sam LaPorta needs 216 yards to break Mike Ditka’s all-time record for most receiving yards by a rookie TE.