The Fantasy Footballers’ Starts of the Week for Week 5
Are we figuring out what this year is going to be? We are a month in, and the data is starting to form some patterns. We may not be sure what to do with the patterns we see, but that is why it is so important to be listening to The Fantasy Footballers right now. This Thursday’s episode brought us yet another edition of the world-famous Starts of the Week. Check the link below for the full episode on YouTube.
Of course, if you are desperate for even more wisdom, join the #FootClan to soak in the fantasy goodness. If you don’t have time to listen to the entire episode and need some quick guidance, below is a breakdown of The Ballers’ Starts of the Week.
Andy’s Starts of the Week
QB- Derek Carr vs. KC
Send in the Carr. This game is the highest over/under of the week at 51 points. It’s a Monday Night game which might make you a bit nervous, but the Chiefs’ defense has been bad against the pass. The Raiders are throwing it at the 4th highest rate in the NFL. 72% of the time, the Chiefs are being thrown on, which is the highest in the NFL. The volume should be there. The Chiefs will score plenty on the Raiders’ defense, so Carr will have to try and keep up with Mahomes. With the elite weapon of Davante Adams, Carr has someone to depend on who can make big plays for him. That should all bring quality fantasy points for Carr.
RB- Kareem Hunt vs. LAC
Andy guaranteed a touchdown this week for Hunt. Hunt sees 15 opportunities per game but has failed to get in the endzone the last few weeks. Against the Chargers last year, Hunt was the RB8 with a few touchdowns, and Andy sees it happening again. The Browns want to run the ball, and with the banged-up Chargers’ defense, they should be able to do so effectively this week.
WR- Tee Higgins vs. BAL
He has serious number-one WR overall potential this week. Last year against Baltimore, he scorched them. In week 7, he had 15 targets, and 13 more in week 17. Baltimore allows the most points to fantasy WRs and the 3rd most 20+ yard passing plays. Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins should both be elite options this week. Enjoy the juicy matchup.
TE- TJ Hockenson vs. NE
New England has given up five touchdowns to the TE position in the last three weeks. They have been bad at covering TEs. Hockenson is extremely necessary for this team. Jason got the turd all shiny last week and Andy wants it in the display window this week. If Amon-Ra doesn’t play, Hockenson could put on a show again.
Jason’s Starts of the Week
QB- Tom Brady vs. ATL
The implied team points are 28.3. Yes, 28.3. Against the Falcons. Brady’s career against Atlanta, including that Super Bowl, sorry Falcons fans, has been a perfect 10-0. Since becoming a Buccaneer, he has thrown for 390 yards and two touchdowns, 399 yards and four touchdowns, 276 yards and five touchdowns, and 368 yards and four touchdowns. That’s an average of 28 fantasy points per game in four-point-passing-touchdowns leagues. He goes nuclear on the Falcons. You have to play him.
RB- James Robinson vs. HOU
They are at home as seven-point favorites against the Texans, allowing 172 rushing yards per game. Combine that with the Texans, who give up the most 10+ yard runs, and James Robinson should smash this week.
WR- Chris Olave vs. SEA
The QB situation doesn’t matter. Michael Thomas is still banged up, and Olave is necessary for this team. He will have a ton of targets. Seattle is allowing the 3rd most expected red points per pass attempt and the 2nd most 20+ yard pass plays. Olave has been a downfield dominator this year, and if Jameis is back, you know he will throw Olave some deep balls. Olave is seeing nearly four deep targets per game. He is leading the league in air yards at 673. The next closest guy is Tyreek Hill, who is at 453. That is absurd. Deep targets, his necessity for the offense, and the Seattle matchup equals big points from Chris Olave.
TE- Tyler Conklin vs. MIA
Conk Conk. Jason is finally a believer. Because Conklin will not go away, he has the most routes run at the TE position in the NFL. Miami is allowing the highest pass success rate in the NFL. You do not want to goose, and Conklin offers a quality safety blanket. Conklin has 40+ routes and 7+ targets. Get those guaranteed points.
Mike’s Starts of the Week
QB- Joe Burrow vs. BAL
He gets the Ravens this week, which has been good for Fantasy QBs all season. According to Mike’s rankings, Burrow is just outside the elite group, so this is his favorite outside of that group of “duh, you start them.” Last year against the Ravens, he was the QB2 and the QB1. Baltimore is again a team to target as they allow the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and the 3rd most 20+ yard passing plays. It should be a week where Burrow can sling it and put up some great points for fantasy.
RB- Damien Harris vs. DET
He doesn’t care about your snap count metrics or any other analytic math you have. He is just getting it done. The Lions are the only team to give up a top-12 RB every week this season. They allow 5.3 yards per carry and the highest expected points per rush attempt. The Patriots are alternating drives between Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson. That has been the game plan this year. Now, Harris should be a safe bet for volume against the worst defense in the NFL with either Bailey Zappe or a hobbled Mac Jones. There is also a good chance he gets in the endzone at least once.
WR- Robert Woods vs. WSH
Over the last few weeks, Woods has quietly been seeing a 26% target share. Treylon Burks is out, meaning Woods could see even more targets. Then you look at the matchup. The ‘Manders has given up top 12 WR points each week and top six in three out of four. Christian Kirk was 6-for-117, Amon-Ra 9-for-116-and-2, Devonta Smith 8-for-169-and-1, and CeeDee Lamb 6-for-97-and-1. Woods is the number one this week for the Titans, and he could be on your waiver wire. Get him in your lineup this week. It’s a good play.
TE- Dallas Goedert vs. AZ
He is playing the Cardinals, and they stink. Goedert is averaging five targets and 60 yards. Opposing TEs are being targeted 27% of the time against Arizona. He has had three red zone targets so far and no touchdowns, which should correct itself. He can score from further away as well. Not to pile it on, but the Cardinals are the 30th-best against TEs, even when the schedule is factored in. They are just terrible. So play Goedert, and you shouldn’t wait long for him to give you points.