NFL Week 1 Weather Conditions (Fantasy Football)
Welcome back, fantasy football and weather enthusiasts! Here we are for year four of weekly weather outlooks for the upcoming season. The year ahead will bring highs and lows, and I’m happy to help you navigate the weather challenges ahead. To be best prepared for how weather affects players’ performance, I recommend reading Samuel DiSorbo’s article “Does Weather Impact Fantasy Football Performance?” and Matt DiSorbo’s article “Whether Weather Really Matters“.
Here are some things to remember for the season. Weather is rarely a reason to bench your studs. It would take some significant weather in order for me to recommend benching a stud. We are talking about a type of game like “The Ice Bowl”. This article will help you as part of the overall calculus in determining whom to start on your team. It is not “the” factor but “a” factor in your decision-making process.
So what kind of weather are we looking for? Great question! Wind, precipitation (rain now, snow later in the season), along with temperature impacts (heat index now, wind chill later in the season) are the main factors. I will keep an eye on thunderstorms; however, as we saw last season, any thunderstorm over the stadium will result in a pause in play. One note about percentages: When I reference a “20% chance” of rain for a game, that means there is a 20% chance of rain occurring over the stadium. Finally, weather is a dynamic thing. Stay on top of any game that looks questionable and be ready to flex as needed!
Without further ado, let’s get to the weather!
It’s football time, baby!
Sunday Early Afternoon Games
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals
LOW impact. Overall, it will be a pretty nice day in Cincinnati. There will be a 30% chance of rain throughout the game, but it looks to be fairly light. Winds will be in the low single digits with the temperature hitting the upper 80s. No major issues here; start your studs.
New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans
MEDIUM impact. It will be a hot one in Nashville on Sunday. Temperatures will be in the low 90s, which, combined with humidity, will put the heat index values in the low 100s! That will take a toll on the players and likely result in more positional rotations. Outside of the temperatures, there will be no issues. Light winds and sunny skies will prevail.
Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers
LOW impact. A tricky one in Pittsburgh; there will be rain in and around the area throughout the game, with slightly heavier rain coming in the early evening (around 5 pm). If the timing holds, then it will not impact the game too much. Keep an eye on this one. Outside of the rain, expect relatively light winds with temperatures in the low 80s.
Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers
MEDIUM impact. Another game dealing with some high heat index values. Game-time temperatures will be in the upper 80s, with the heat index hitting the upper 90s. As we saw last year, those temperatures can cause some issues with how long players are on the field. There is also a slight chance of rain, but nothing too substantial. I do not recommend benching anyone in this game; just temper expectations on playing time. No issues from the winds.
Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars
MEDIUM impact. You can bet if you are seeing high heat index values in Charlotte, then Jacksonville will have some too. Temperatures are expected in the low 90s; with humidity added in, that will push the heat index to the low 100s! Expect some additional breaks and rotations for all players with those temperatures. There is also a 40% chance of rain throughout the game. Winds will be negligible. The players are some of the best conditioned athletes on the planet, but these temps will take their toll.
Sunday Late Afternoon Games
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles
LOW impact. There will be some rain in the area, but it should be all moved out before kickoff. Winds will be in the high single digits, with temperatures in the upper-80s. No significant issues for this game.
Sunday Night Game
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants
LOW impact. It is shaping up to be an absolutely beautiful night for football on Sunday. So beautiful that this is the winner of the “GOOD WEATHER GAME OF THE WEEK” award. Expect partly cloudy skies, light winds, and temperatures in the mid-70s. Start all your studs and enjoy the game.
Monday Night Game
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs
LOW impact. It will be a little windy on Monday night with sustained speeds in the mid-teens and the occasional gust into the low-20s. This shouldn’t impact any QB or WR play, but could potentially cause some issues for your kickers. No rain is expected, with temperatures in the high-70s.
Best of luck to your team in the week ahead!