NFL Team Performance Trends: Week 2 (Fantasy Football)
Kicking off my in-season article series on team performance trends, the following results will focus on average (per play) team Expected Points Added (EPA) from Week 1. I wrote a preview heading into the season if you’d like to compare the Week 1 performance to 2023’s. I’ll split this article into a three-part breakdown of offensive takeaways, defensive takeaways, and player profiles. The full EPA rankings for offense and defense are shown below the analysis. Let’s dive in.
Offensive Takeaways
The Ravens looked strong, despite their Week 1 loss. With a positive offensive EPA, everything is fair game in Baltimore as far as fantasy goes. Expect both their run and pass game to produce in coming weeks, especially this coming Sunday against the Raiders.
The Cleveland Browns had an incredibly slow start offensively, which is a cause for concern. With a -0.24 EPA/play last Sunday, their offense had no redeeming qualities–even Amari Cooper was outplayed by Jerry Jeudy! While it’s not time to hit the panic button, proceed with caution with this receiving room as poor offenses can’t support efficient fantasy WRs.
The Bills dominance is a major Week 1 takeaway–an incredibly efficient performance on both sides of the ball put any doubts on Buffalo away. With Josh Allen at the helm, Khalil Shakir and Keon Coleman both look like they will be studs.
The offensive outputs from the Patriots and Jets was also quite surprising–keep an eye on those teams in the next couple of weeks to see if the Patriots regress and the Jets improve.
Target Texans and Colts receivers for fantasy and avoid Titans pass catchers. The EPA trends tell us a lot–while it is only Week 1, keep your eye on these insights.
To dive deeper into the Texans’ success, let’s break down the WR EPA shares from Week 1. Nico Collins led the pack, despite Diggs scoring 2 TDs. Look for Diggs to regress, and Collins to continue to dominate this receiving room. Be wary of Tank Dell!
The AFC West is a mess, outside the Chiefs. All other teams posted horrific a EPA/play in Week 1–for these teams, it will be smart to target their RBs, especially in the coming weeks when their offenses look to find their groove.
The NFC North looks like an excellent place to cultivate fantasy performers, at least early on. The Lions, Packers, and Vikings all put up strong EPA/play numbers offensively–keep starting those guys! As for Chicago, their weak performance offensively may foreshadow some growing pains early on. Let them find their groove before you give Bears players a starting role on your team.
The Washington Commanders performance took many by surprise–their offensive EPA/play shows high potential for fantasy studs! Keep an eye out for your Commanders players to improve in the coming weeks (Terry McLaurin, Brian Robinson, Austin Ekeler).
Tampa Bay and New Orleans balled out on offense in Week 1, while Atlanta shockingly laid an egg. While these trends may not continue, it is interesting to note early on.
The Cardinals, Rams, and 49ers all put up highly efficient numbers for EPA/play on offense–this tells us we should be starting players on these teams in the coming weeks. With the Cardinals, especially, it will be important to hold faith in guys like Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr., as an offense playing that efficient will support their success.
Defensive Takeaways
Note the Chargers’ strong EPA/play on the defensive side of the ball–as they are playing the Panthers in Week 2, it might not be the best week to start your Carolina players.
The Bears and Vikings defenses played very efficiently in Week 1, posting a 0.28 and 0.23 EPA/play, respectively. Based on their performances late last season, be slightly wary for this ‘lock-down’ trend to continue for Chicago and Minnesota.
The Titans didn’t disappoint on defense despite a loss against the Bears, posting a 0.20 EPA/play. As they play the Jets in Week 2, will this be a bounce-back week for New York, or was the Titans’ solid defense not a fluke?
The Commanders defense put up weak EPA/play numbers (-0.27) in the first week. While they dropped their opener against the Bucs, look for a stronger defensive performance in Week 2 against the Giants.
*Below find the EPA/play rankings for offense and defense league-wide. The ‘Rank’ column is based on the offensive EPA/play, since it is the major focus of this article’s analysis.
Player Profiles
As RB EPA is a strong indicator of future performance, let’s review some RB profiles to make some predictions about fantasy success.
Zamir White: High potential to bust–White’s -0.98 EPA/play tells us enough. His 3.4 yards per carry tells us more. Bench White in weeks to come.
J.K. Dobbins: High potential to boom–after a stellar Week 1 performance, Dobbins showed that he still has RB1 talent in him. Start him or grab him off waivers if you can!
Zack Moss vs. Chase Brown: Moss is the answer, for now. After a strong showing via EPA, Moss showed to be the more effective option for the Bengals, and will control the touches in the next few weeks.
James Conner: High potential to bust–his -0.12 EPA/play is not favorable. While he found the endzone, the Cardinals may turn to rookie Trey Benson if he shows some efficiency with his touches.
That’s all for this article, make sure to check back next week!
Comments
I am not 100% how you are interpreting defensive EPA, but it looks likes you are backwards / inverted somewhere. You can’t claim the Bucs had the strongest offensive EPA, and also claim their opponent (who allowed the highest offensive EPA) had the strongest defensive EPA.
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