Team Performance Trends: Season Preview (Fantasy Football)
Introduction
In this article, we will take a look at some EPA (expected points added) trends from the 2023-24 season. This will be a preview for the upcoming season and for my weekly team performance articles for this year.
Analysis
For this analysis, I’ll compare each team’s average EPA per play on offense and defense, division by division. Let’s jump in.
AFC North
The Ravens ran the North in 2023 and showed out on offense. As I explored in a previous article, quarterbacks need high-powered offenses to succeed in fantasy — Lamar Jackson is set for another stellar year, and his offense is only getting better with the addition of Derrick Henry. Look for that 0.05 EPA to climb on offense. The Browns had a surprisingly low offensive output, putting up -0.11 EPA per play on offense — will they have a bounce-back year from an efficiency standpoint? This goes to show that while Cleveland performed below expectation on both sides of the ball, their talent surged them forward in the division, giving them a second-place finish. It will be exciting to see what they can do in 2024. Lastly, even without starting QB Joe Burrow, the Bengals’ offense nearly performed at a net-zero EPA/play on offense. Look for big things from them this season, and take advantage of lowered draft stock with players like Joe Burrow, Tee Higgins, Zack Moss, and Chase Brown.
 AFC East
The AFC East is truly up for grabs this season. While Buffalo put up 0.06 EPA per play on offense in 2023, the loss of WR1, Stefon Diggs, severely hurts this offense’s talent pool. Miami looks to keep firing on offense as well, coming off a strong season of their own. The biggest wild card of this division, however, are the New York Jets. Without star QB Aaron Rodgers, the Jets struggled on offense, posting a -0.18 EPA per play and their defense didn’t perform much better. Can Rodgers help turn the ship around, or is everyone too bought into their success? As for New England, the only player worth any fantasy attention is Rhamondre Stevenson — keep in mind, good RBs on bad teams can still succeed!
AFC South
There is a ton of upside in the AFC South. With CJ Stroud, Anthony Richardson, and Will Levis heading into year two, there is much hope for all these teams to push their offenses over the top — they are all very close to being competitive offenses, as their EPAs show (although some might argue Houston is already there).
AFC West
The AFC West has been overrun by the Kansas City Chiefs for some time, and will likely continue to be in 2024. Coming off a season where they put up 0.01 EPA/play on offense without a true WR1, the Chiefs are only going to become a bigger, stronger juggernaut with the additions of Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy. Denver is a bit of a wild card with rookie QB Bo Nix at the helm but could be a surprise contender for the division based on last season’s defensive output. The Chargers are certainly in a good place with Jim Harbaugh at the helm, but this offensive EPA/play may not jump much — as we all know, Jim is a run-first coach, which will hurt Herbert and his receivers’ fantasy output. Look to the run game for Chargers fantasy success.
NFC North
The NFC North will be a battle in 2024. Both the Packers and the Lions were monsters on offense, putting up high EPA/play numbers all season. Now, with the addition of Caleb Williams, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, and D’Andre Swift, the Bears look to turn their offensive woes around. Jared Goff, Jordan Love, and Caleb Williams should all be strong options for fantasy as they reside on high-powered offenses, while their receivers will have some merit as well.
NFC East
Based on 2023’s numbers, the Dallas Cowboys had one of the most efficient offenses in the NFL. Can they replicate this in 2024? With CeeDee signing a long-term extension, Ezekiel Elliott returning, and Dak Prescott looking to prove his worth for a new contract, Dallas seems to be locked and loaded with something to prove. Don’t doubt this offense this season! The other intriguing teams in this division are the Giants and Commanders, who both struggled offensively with respective to EPA last year. Both teams have grabbed some new pieces that will hopefully turn the page on their performances, however. While Malik Nabers is exciting (and will likely be strong for fantasy), the more likely player to turn the ship around is Jayden Daniels — a mobile QB coming into a system with some proven players like Terry McLaurin and Brian Robinson Jr., there is much room for an offensive that puts up positive efficiency numbers in the new year.
NFC South
The NFC South is going to be interesting. No team in the division had a positive offensive EPA in 2023. The Falcons certainly made the most noise in the offseason, which puts them at the helm of expectations for this upcoming season. Look for Kirk Cousins to thrive with his new offense in Atlanta. As for the other squads, it is tough to invest too much in any of the QBs in the division based on their most recent poor performances. It will be best to target RBs, such as Rachaad White, Alvin Kamara, and Jonathon Brooks if you are looking for pieces of these teams.
NFC West
The NFC West was the most efficient offensive division in 2023, and possibly the best defensively as well. This shouldn’t change much in 2024. The 49ers, Rams, and Seahawks all haven’t lost many pieces on either side of the ball, while the Cardinals grabbed Marvin Harrison Jr. in the draft. Look for the QBs in this division to be fantasy studs — remember, high offensive EPA means strong QB fantasy performance.
That’s all for this article! Keep a lookout for an article similar to this one every week this season — I will be sure to add team EPA for both sides of the ball as well as player outlooks and game outlooks for every week. If you have any suggestions or ideas for what to add to these weekly pieces, feel free to reach out on Twitter!