Dynasty Deja Vu: Alec Pierce (Fantasy Football)

The 2026 offseason has had some serious changes to the Indianapolis Colts WR room. Michael Pittman was traded to the Pittsburgh Steelers, leaving Alec Pierce to be the talk of the town. The Pierce hype continued when the Colts made him a $ 114 million man with a fresh four -year contract. According to Spotrac, the new deal vaults Pierce to 2026’s 14th highest-paid WR in contract average and 19th highest in average annual value percentage (AAV%) in team cap space. And, as if things could not get better for Pierce, the Colts did not add another WR until Round 7 of the 2026 NFL draft with pick 254. It has been a fantastic offseason for Alec Pierce and his bank account, but it is fair to say many fans did not anticipate him receiving a top-20 WR contract. Before 2025, Pierce never finished as a top-36 WR. For the duration of his first contract, Pierce was not even the most productive WR on his OWN team, with 735 yards and one TD less than Michael Pittman Jr.

Fortunately for Pierce, 2025 told a different story. The arrival of Daniel Jones led to Pierce finishing as WR20 in receiving yards and WR26 in fantasy football.

The 2026 offseason has the dynasty community clamoring for Pierce. The 2025 production, Pittsman’s departure, and a new four-year deal have propelled Pierce up dynasty rankings. Last year, the Fantasy Footballers dynasty rankings had Pierce as WR80. At the time of this article, the UDK rankings have Pierce ranked as the WR34 and 79th player overall. This represents an eight-round leap in start-up ADP.

After toiling for three years followed by a season of career highs, what is the real story for Pierce?

Should dynasty managers hop on the Pierce hype train and treat him like a top-20 WR the way his contract indicates? 

Thankfully for dynasty managers, the NFL has provided some examples of similar situations. You may ask, “Have we actually seen a WR who never finished as a top-36 WR until the final year of his contract before signing a new deal for top-20 WR money?” When Pierce’s contract was announced, I doubt I was the only one who thought, “I haven’t heard of a contract like that since Christian Kirk’s.” It was a bona fide deja vu moment. By looking at the circumstances surrounding Kirk’s first contract production, free agency class, and team circumstances, dynasty managers can have a glimpse into what could go right or wrong for Alec Pierce. 

The Deja Vu Blueprint

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First Contract

Christian Kirk entered the league in 2018, landing with the Arizona Cardinals. Kirk finished at the fantasy WR 58 in his rookie year, playing behind all-time great human, first-ballot Hall of Famer Larry Fitzgerald, with passing support from Josh Rosen, Sam Bradford, and Mike Glennon. Year 2 saw Kirk continue to play second fiddle to Fitzgerald while Arizona welcomed the arrival of Kyler Murray. Murray provided a boost to the entire Arizona offense, and Kirk finished at WR40, moving in the right direction, but still leaving production to be desired. In 2020, the Cardinals added sure-fire Hall of Famer DeAndre Hopkins to the WR room, and Kirk finished as the WR 50.  Three years into his career, Kirk had yet to be on the field for a full season, playing 12, 13, and 14 games. At best, Kirk was producing like a fantasy WR flex play. 2021 saw Kirk put together his first 17-game season, and he finished as fantasy WR26 before hitting free agency. Kirk’s 2021 success came because he capitalized on the opportunity left by injured Hopkins. Kirk succeeded when the team made it a priority to make him a focal point of the offense.

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Second Contract

Kirk found a new home and a new contract with the Jacksonville Jaguars in the first year for head coach Doug Pederson. The four-year deal made Kirk the 19th highest-paid WR in contract average, and the initial reporting of incentives placed Kirk in the top 10 in AAV% for WRs. The contract news made ripples across the NFL, leading to several WR contract renegotiations and the trade that sent Tyreek Hill from the Kansas City Chiefs to the Miami Dolphins. While the money seemed unexpected at the time, the free agency class was very limited to NFL GMs looking to acquire a WR. Davante Adams (WR3) and Chris Godwin (WR18) had been franchise tagged. Allen Robinson had two great years (WR10 & WR11) followed by a down year (WR87). Russell Gage (WR42), Zay Jones (WR70), & Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR78) rounded out the top of the WR draft class. In that context, Kirk must have appeared extremely desirable for a Jaguars team that was attempting to recover from the fiasco that was Urban Meyer.

In his first year with the Jaguars, Kirk played all 17 games and was a focal point of the offense, finishing as the WR11 in 2022. People were starting to believe Kirk was the player his contract said he was. 2023 saw the team add Calvin Ridley to the WR room, and Kirk was only able to play 11 games and one snap before missing the rest of the season due to injury (“Agggggh, Ma Groin!“). As the season went on, the team’s offensive focus moved away from Kirk, and his production declined, finishing as the WR95 and 107 in subsequent years. Despite what the contract indicated, it became apparent Kirk only had a fantasy impact when the team decided to make him a focus. Kirk’s play on the field did not demand offensive attention.

The Parallels

Kirk is an example of a mid-tier WR who hit free agency at the right time. Kirk’s success came only as a result of the offensive scheme, not from top-tier talent. Alec Pierce entered the league as a second-round draft pick, just like Kirk. Both players spent the majority of their first contract playing as a WR2 for their own team before having career highs in a contract year. Kirk financially benefited from being a top producer in a weaker WR free agency class, and it is the same with Pierce. 2026 saw the franchise tag used on George Pickens (WR5) while Wan’Dale Robinson (WR14), Romeo Doubs (WR36), Rashid Shaheed (WR39), Jalen Nailor (WR60), and Jahan Dotson (WR110) found new landing spots. Veteran Mike Evans also found his way to a new landing spot. 

Pierce has struggled to be fantasy relevant early in his career, finishing as the WR60 and WR72 his first two seasons. In Year 3, Pierce began to get more involved in Head Coach Shane Steichen’s offense, outproducing Michael Pittman Jr to finish as the fantasy WR36. Since Pierce was drafted into the NFL, the Colts have had NINE starting QBs, and he has caught passes from ALL of them. Most notable and most exciting of those QBs is Daniel Jones. Jones and Pierce demonstrated their chemistry prior to the injury that required Joe Flacco and Riley Leonard to finish the 2025 season. In the 11 games Jones and Pierce have played together, Pierce has 38 catches, 769 yards, and two TDs, which is a 17-game pace of 59 catches, 1,119 yards, and three TDs. This projected 17-game pace would be 159.4 points in 1/2 PPR scoring, which is remarkably close to Pierce’s 2025 15-game finish of 159.8; good enough for WR24. 

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So What, Now What?

The first contract years for Kirk and Pierce are remarkably similar. It feels like we have been here before. Kirk’s circumstances led to him having financial success at the right time, same as Pierce. The team that signed him to a second contract made him the focal point of the offense before he faded from fantasy football relevance. This has yet to be determined for Pierce, so we have to ask: will Pierce continue to be a focal point of the offense?

While the parallels for finances and offensive changes remain similar for Kirk and Pierce, something very different is their history of health. Kirk missed notable chunks of several seasons before and after signing his new contract. It is entirely possible this led to the Jaguars moving their offensive focus to other players. Kirk’s health was not reliable. Pierce, on the other hand, has never played fewer than 15 games in a season. Availability is the best ability, and this would make all the difference in Pierce’s projected success.

Both players had questionable QB play in their first contracts. Kirk’s rookie year was helmed by Josh Rosen, who was immediately shipped out of town to make way for Kyler. Kyler burst onto the scene, finishing as QB6 and giving a boost to the Cardinals’ offense, but that boost for Kirk translated into an increase of 15 catches and 119 yards when compared to his rookie year. The majority of Pierce’s first two years in the league were led by Matt Ryan (playing the final 12 games of his NFL career) and Gardner Minshew (whose greatest claim to fame is his mustache). I do not think it is a coincidence that Pierce had the most success while playing with the most competent QBs of his career; they would look for him. When top talent found its way to the Colts’ QB position, Pierce attracted the most targets and offensive focus. Pierce rose to the occasion.

There is no doubt Pierce has benefited from great QB play and offensive scheme. Much like Kirk, Pierce is heading into the first year of a new contract as the WR1 for his team. Unlike Kirk, Pierce’s track record of health indicates he will be on the field to retain that focus. Sure, there are changes in offensive schemes every season and even from game to game, but with Daniel Jones signed through 2027 and Steichen signed through 2028, there appears to be 114 million reasons why managers can believe Pierce will be part of the Colts’ scheme for at least the next four years. 

All Aboard the Hype Train!

While there are strong parallels between the early careers and second contracts of Christian Kirk and Alec Pierce, the outcomes may differ. Kirk’s health played a significant factor in his production before and after signing his second contract. This is not the case for Pierce. Alec Pierce improved over the course of his first contract and played his best football with his best circumstances. All signs point to those circumstances continuing. Alec Pierce appears to have the talent and circumstances to be what he was paid to be, a top-20 WR. With Pittman no longer in the picture, the ceiling may be even higher. The hype train is chugging along, and it is not too late for managers to punch a ticket.

All aboard!

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