NFC West Divisional Podcast Recap for 2023 (Fantasy Football)
All good things must come to an end, and the Ballers’ division-by-division preview through the NFL makes its final stop with the NFC West. Andy, Mike, and Jason discuss the offseason changes to remember for each team (i.e. players, rookies, coaches) and how that could affect the fantasy pieces for the upcoming season.
A reminder that we are up to three shows a week now – tune into The Fantasy Footballers Podcast on any and all of your devices!
To take an even deeper dive into fantasy players in the NFC West, make sure to check out the full array of the UDK’s tools available to make your fantasy team a champion!
Let’s Get Divisional – NFC West
San Francisco 49ers (13-4)
Player Additions: QB Sam Darnold; QB Brandon Allen
Player Subtractions: QB Jimmy Handsome Garoppolo; K Robbie Gould
Rookies: – – – –
2022 Offensive Ranks
| Pace of Play | PPG | Total Yards | Pass Att. | Pass Yards | Pass TDs | Rush Att. | Rush Yards | Rush TD | |
| 7 | 6 | 5 | 26 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 5 |
Despite having three different starting QBs through the regular season, the 49ers found their way back to the top of the NFC West in 2022. With two of those three QBs back on the roster in San Francisco, the optimism around this offense is warranted after finishing the season so strong under Brock Purdy. While Purdy’s stats may not be the, well, purdiest, he did have three top-10 finishes in his five starts at the end of the season. What we saw at the end of 2022 is encouraging that Purdy will be able to sustain viable fantasy options around him. Purdy won’t start the season on the PUP after surgery to repair his UCL in March and is presumed to be the starter even with Trey Lance still on the roster. Fantasy managers haven’t gotten to properly see Lance as the starter for San Francisco, and may have to wait another year or bet on an injury to Purdy before we really get to know what he could be in the NFL.
Christian McCaffrey’s move to the Bay Area in the middle of 2022 put one of the best fantasy RBs in history on an offense that will utilize him at an extremely high level. After McCaffrey made the move to San Francisco, he averaged 21 opportunities and 20.5 fantasy points per game. While there’s still a chance that Elijah Mitchell continues to be involved in this offense on a weekly basis, that could help the season-long ability of McCaffrey to stay healthy deeper into the year.
The receiving options for the 49ers are some of the deepest in the league. There are arguments to be made for Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle to be made a priority for fantasy managers in 2023. Samuel’s disappointing 2022 after finishing as the WR2 in 2021 may bring doubt as to what to expect if he’s on your roster. The opposite is true for Aiyuk who had his best year as a pro, finishing with 114 targets as the WR15. There is a world where both Deebo and Aiyuk are relevant fantasy options, but it seems difficult to project both of them being top-15 WRs while Christian McCaffrey is healthy and playing. Meanwhile, George Kittle was one of the main benefactors of Brock Purdy’s emergence at the end of 2022. When Purdy took more than 80% of the QB snaps, Kittle averaged four receptions for 52 yards and a TD. While fantasy managers know the 49ers have been one of the more consistent machines in the league over the past several years, the biggest gamble will be placing your bets on the right receiving option in 2023.
2023 Vegas Projected Win Total: 10.5 (Opened at 11.5)
Seattle Seahawks (9-8)
Player Additions: – – – –
Player Subtractions: RB Rashaad Penny; WR Marquise Goodwin
Rookies: Rd 1 (No. 20): WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba; Rd 2 (No. 52): RB Zach Charbonnet; Rd 7 (No. 237): RB Kenny McIntosh
2022 Offensive Ranks
| Pace of Play | PPG | Total Yards | Pass Att. | Pass Yards | Pass TDs | Rush Att. | Rush Yards | Rush TD | |
| 27 | 9 | 13 | 15 | 11 | 4 | 22 | 18 | 22 |
One of the biggest surprise teams in the NFL in 2022 was the Seattle Seahawks. After trading Russell Wilson to the Broncos, the fantasy options in Seattle were left for dead given the current QB situation. All that happened after that was Geno Smith throwing for 4,282 yards, 30 TDs, and finishing as the QB5 on the year. Seattle rewarded Geno with a long-term contract this offseason along with adding more offensive weapons through the NFL draft. For fantasy purposes, Geno was a waiver wire diamond, finishing as a top-12 QB 10 times last season, which was more consistent than Trevor Lawrence, Lamar Jackson, and Kirk Cousins. At his current ADP as the QB16, Geno could again be one of the better-undervalued options at QB.
Seattle’s WR room could be one of the best in the league after the addition of rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the 1st round of the draft. DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett benefitted from the great season Geno had and finished as the WR18 and WR13 respectively. Metcalf led the league in end zone targets in 2022, a stat he led the league in over the last four seasons. Meanwhile, Lockett just continued to be the consistent force that he’s been over the last five seasons, never finishing lower than WR15. If Smith-Njigba can get worked into the offense and garner the projected 88 targets the Ballers have estimated for him, there’s a good chance he can add a third fantasy receiving option to the Seahawks’ offense. Over the last decade, 83% of 1st round WRs who finish with 88 or more targets finished inside the top-36, and more than half finished inside the top-24.
If the WR room in Seattle is one of the most exciting in the league, then the RB room is one of the scariest. Kenneth Walker had a great rookie season, finishing as the RB16 after taking over the starting role in Week 5. During that stretch, Walker was the RB5. Despite all the excitement around Walker as one of the few bell cow backs for fantasy, the Seahawks took rookie Zach Charbonnet in the 2nd round of the draft. Charbonnet profiles as a better pass catcher than Walker which could bring a lot of uncertainty into both of their values for 2023. Over the last decade, when RB teammates saw 200+ touches each, all of those RBs ended up inside the top-25, and the RB drafted later always outperformed their ADP. While fantasy managers may not get the RB1 range season they’d hoped from Walker with Charbonnet in town, the backfield could still be valuable going forward.
2023 Vegas Projected Win Total: 9.5 (Opened at 8.5)
Los Angeles Rams (5-12)
Player Additions: TE Hunter Long
Player Subtractions: RB Darrell Henderson; WR Allen Robinson
Rookies: Round 4 (No. 128): QB Stetson Bennett; Round 5 (No. 175): TE Davis Allen; Round 5 (No. 177): WR Puka Nacua; Round 6 (No. 215): RB Zach Evans
2022 Offensive Ranks
| Pace of Play | PPG | Total Yards | Pass Att. | Pass Yards | Pass TDs | Rush Att. | Rush Yards | Rush TD | |
| 30 | 27 | 32 | 24 | 27 | 28 | 26 | 27 | 16 |
Just a year removed from winning the Super Bowl, 2022 hit the Rams hard. Injuries all over the field left L.A. out of the playoff picture and their QB contemplating retirement, only for all of their main pieces to return for 2023. Matthew Stafford only played in nine games in 2022, and he wasn’t great whenever we saw him on the field with only one top-12 finish. While he wasn’t great for fantasy, Stafford was still on pace for 4,400 passing yards and is just a year removed from a QB5 finish in 2021, so there’s a chance he could be a good value as a late-round QB in standard leagues or as second QB in SuperFlex leagues.
It really is unfortunate that Cooper Kupp’s season got cut short last year. In the eight full games Kupp played in 2022, he never finished lower than the WR19 and was averaging 20.3 fantasy points per game. Needless to say, Kupp should still be considered one of the elite WRs for fantasy and needs to be drafted as such.
Outside of Kupp, there are a few interesting receiving options still in L.A. Van Jefferson could be in for an increased workload alongside Kupp. Stafford has shown the ability to support multiple fantasy-relevant options in years past, with six of his 10 years having multiple top–36 WRs. Tyler Higbee had a career-high 108 targets and 72 receptions in 2022 and could be a value at TE, currently going in the 12th round of drafts.
The Rams’ starting RB has been viewed as a gold mine in years past. In 2022, there was still plenty of value for the starting RB in L.A., but it was a moving target throughout the year that finally landed on Cam Akers. Through Weeks 13-18, Akers averaged 19.3 opportunities per game and 16.4 fantasy points per game. Despite all of the uncertainty early in the year between the Rams and Akers, there could be lots of value from Akers if he can maintain the lead RB role, despite currently being drafted in the RB dead zone. If it’s not Akers, look for Kyren Williams or rookie 6th-round pick Zach Evans to play the “Hero RB” role in the Rams backfield.
2023 Vegas Projected Win Total: 6.5 (Opened at 7.5)
Arizona Cardinals (4-13)
Player Additions: WR Zach Pascal; QB David Blough; QB Jeff Driskel
Player Subtractions: WR DeAndre Hopkins; WR A.J. Green; WR Chosen Anderson
Rookies: Round 3 (No. 94): WR Michael Wilson
2022 Offensive Ranks
| Pace of Play | PPG | Total Yards | Pass Att. | Pass Yards | Pass TDs | Rush Att. | Rush Yards | Rush TD | |
| 3 | 21 | 22 | 4 | 18 | 24 | 20 | 22 | 16 |
Cue the circus music. The Arizona Cardinals look to be one of the worst teams in the league in 2023. Whatever could go wrong for the Cardinals in 2022, did go wrong. From Kyler Murray tearing his ACL, to completely cleaning house in the front office, it was an extremely disappointing season just a year after going 11-6 and making the playoffs.
Considering that Kyler will start the year on the PUP, fantasy managers shouldn’t draft him with the expectation to get 17 games. Still, all of the Ballers expect Kyler will play a considerable amount of the season, so he could be a good value if you’re willing to hold and wait. Keep in mind that last season he had career lows in yards per attempt, TD rate, and first down rate. But with a bad defense and a team that doesn’t have anything to lose, Kyler could still be a fantasy difference-maker down the stretch of the season.
Possibly one of the brightest spots for fantasy in Arizona could be James Conner. After a slow start and an injury, Conner finished the season strong as the RB5 from Week 9 to the end of the year. During that stretch, Conner was a top-20 RB in every game, including five top-12 finishes. There are some red flags for fantasy managers who are investing in Conner for 2023 since he’s never played an entire year without missing a stretch of games and is nearing the RB age cliff.
The departure of DeAndre Hopkins could present a real opportunity for Marquise Brown to be a sneaking value as the current WR30 off the board. Brown assumes to be the main beneficiary of the 10.7 targets per game vacated by Hopkins. Through the first six weeks of 2022, Brown ran the most routes in the NFL, was 5th in receptions, 7th in receiving yards, and posted three top-10 finishes. All of the Ballers have Brown well above his current ADP, and if you’re betting on Kyler returning in the back half of the season, that value could be even higher by the end of the season.
Outside of Brown, the rest of the receiving options for the Cardinals will be a dart throw to start the year. Rondale Moore and Greg Dortch should be on the field, but it’s their consistency to stay involved that could prevent them from being fantasy relevant. Meanwhile, rookie WR Michael Wilson will have the opportunity to work on the outside and could be someone to keep your eye on if he’s involved early.
Second-year TE Trey McBride may be the second-best receiving option for Arizona by the end of the season. McBride had a slow start to his rookie year but did have a spike week with a TE2 finish in Week 17, making him one of just six rookie TEs over the last decade with at least seven receptions, 75 yards, and a TD.
2023 Vegas Projected Win Total: 4.5 (Opened at 5.5)