Analyzing Wide Receiver Performances for Week 6 (Fantasy Football)

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Week 5 kicked off with a booty whooping on Thursday night that saw DJ Moore go absolutely ballistic for 230 yards and three touchdowns. It then wrapped up with a Jordan Love and Tragedy that saw the Packers fall to the Raiders when he threw a pick to wrap up the win for Las Vegas. Now that we are through Week 5, we have finally seen the Ja’Marr Chase explosion game which fantasy managers have waited on with bated breath, and we got to see the return of Cooper Kupp of Coffee (yayy!!). In this week’s edition of the wide receiver deep dive we will look at our three major stats aDOT, TPRR, and YPRR, and I will be updating my PRS. I will also update the top 24 in PRS. Let’s do it!

Average Depth of Target (aDOT)

Overperformer: Adam Thielen (Carolina Panthers)

aDOT: 6.8 yards
Result: 11 receptions, 107 receiving yards, 1 TD
Receiving Fantasy Points: 22.2 (half-PPR)

Old man Adam Thielen is winning folks weeks left and right at this point of the season. He has been a focal point of the offense and Frank Reich is drawing up plays specifically for him. I hate betting against it because he has been so constant this year, but 6.8 aDOT is so low that it seems infeasible for him to continue putting up this sort of yardage. He is a must-start in all leagues right now with how bad this Panthers team is and how they will be passing all game, every game. I do fear that he could have subpar outings if the Panthers can find themselves in any close games. But as for now, they will be behind and the opposing defenses will allow Thielen to continue gobbling up underneath targets to rack up receptions.

Underperformer: Brandin Cooks (Dallas Cowboys)

aDOT: 27.8 yards
Result: 1 reception, 7 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 1.2 (half-PPR)

The Cowboys just got humiliated on national TV for the whole world to see as the 49ers opened a can on them and didn’t stop until the clock hit triple zeros. Dallas could not get anything done during the game and every possession looked like a chore while Brock Purdy and San Francisco made it look way too easy. Brandin Cooks was a victim of this Dallas whooping and had an abysmal day fantasy-wise and just pure football-wise as well. One sliver of hope for Cooks’ managers was that he finally started seeing deep targets, but when they are targets that land three yards out of bounds while Fred Warner gives chase, well that’s not great Bob! Cooks should remain on your bench and I would not be at all upset if you dropped him for a needed start from a waiver wire player this week.

Targets per Route Run (TPRR)

For a deeper dive into TPRR, check out AJ Passman’s Targets Per Route Run Report for Week 6.

Overperformer: Christian Kirk (Jacksonville Jaguars)

TPRR: 0.156
Result: 6 receptions, 78 receiving yards, 0 TD
Receiving Fantasy Points: 10.8 (half-PPR)

The London…I mean Jacksonville Jaguars proved that they can play with any team in the NFL this past weekend as they beat the Buffalo Bills early in the morning to get the Sunday slate of football started. This game was pretty wild in the fact that Jacksonville ran 82 offensive plays! This led to Trevor Lawrence throwing the pigskin 37 times and Christian Kirk was a recipient of seven of those attempts. That is not bad in any sense, but it is also not great, and a 15.6% TPRR can not be relied upon to be a consistent fantasy producer for your team. The Kirk ride will be extremely volatile and with him not being in two-WR sets right now, I feel uncomfortable starting him in shallow leagues.

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Underperformer: Robert Woods (Houston Texans)

TPRR: 0.304
Result: 3 receptions, 30 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 4.5 (half-PPR)

The Texans only ran 58 offensive plays against Atlanta and the offensive output was not stellar. However, Robert Woods was very involved and saw an extremely high target rate. If CJ Stroud is going to continue throwing 30+ times per game, then any of the three Houston Texans wide receivers (Tank Dell, Nico Collins, Bobby Trees) are viable starts. There are not many teams I would want to start Robert Woods in, but if he is going to see this sort of TPRR then he is worthy of rostering. Woods is more of a start in a desperate situation, but there are much worse starts out there (just ask my rebuilding dynasty squad).

Yards per Route Run (YPRR)

Overperformer: Chris Olave (New Orleans Saints)

YPRR: 0.71
Result: 4 receptions, 27 receiving yards, 1 TD
Receiving Fantasy Points: 10.7 (half-PPR)

I am not a fan of having to write about Chris Olave every week, but here I am again writing about this New Orleans Saints passing offense. This game was a travesty and Mac Jones helped the Saints get off to a fast start with a pick-six to get things going. They never really looked back after that and Derek Carr only had to throw the ball 26 times in this spot, so it is no wonder that Chris Olave had a poor day YPRR-wise, but that being said, he was at least serviceable for your fantasy team. A touchdown saved his day and allowed for there to not be sheer panic in the streets. This Saints passing offense is not fun to watch right now and you will always be starting Olave, but I am more than nervous about Chris and Derek going forward.

Underperformer: Brandon Aiyuk (San Francisco)

YPRR: 2.42
Result: 4 receptions, 58 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 7.8 (half-PPR)

The 49ers did not really need to throw the ball much against the Cowboys once they got out to their 18-point lead, but Brandon Aiyuk continues to put up great advanced stats. Aiyuk is getting loads of intermediate targets right now and Brock Purdy has done an awesome job of finding him with ease. George Kittle took all the touchdowns (not really but three receptions and three touchdowns is pretty cool), so we should see BA continue to put up great fantasy output this year, especially when they play in more competitive games. With Deebo Samuel still dealing with nagging injuries we should see Aiyuk continue to flourish this year.

Applying PRS to Predict Fantasy Points Moving Forward

With how bad my DJ Moore sell-high trade target aged last week, I will take a reprieve this time and just let the PRS speak to you how it may. But, with that said, no better time to sell than now (laughs sadly)!

Top-24 Wide Receivers in PRS Through Week 5

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Player PRS Predicted FP/G Actual FP/G Over/Under Predicted
Tyreek Hill 126.7 25.49 22.62 -2.87
Brandon Aiyuk 107.5 21.41 15.08 -6.34
Mike Evans 94.9 18.74 15.43 -3.32
A.J. Brown 83.8 16.4 16.72 0.32
Stefon Diggs 83.8 16.39 20.3 3.91
Cooper Kupp 82.7 16.17 15.8 -0.37
Justin Jefferson 81.2 15.83 18.62 2.79
DJ Moore 80.4 15.67 19.32 3.65
Nico Collins 80.1 15.6 15.44 -0.16
Keenan Allen 78.8 15.34 19.73 4.39
Puka Nacua 78.8 15.33 18.44 3.11
Davante Adams 76.9 14.92 16.14 1.22
DeAndre Hopkins 71.5 13.78 9.72 -4.06
Amon-Ra St. Brown 71.3 13.73 14.53 0.8
Ja’Marr Chase 69.4 13.33 17.52 4.19
Josh Reynolds 68.8 13.2 11.02 -2.18
Mike Williams 68.1 13.07 13.47 0.4
Tank Dell 66.5 12.71 10.78 -1.93
Christian Watson 66.1 12.64 10.05 -2.59
Kalif Raymond 65.5 12.52 5.58 -6.94
D.K. Metcalf 64.3 12.26 11.95 -0.31
George Pickens 63 11.97 12.46 0.49
CeeDee Lamb 61.8 11.73 11.06 -0.67
Deebo Samuel 59.5 11.23 9.24 -1.99

Cooper Kupp comes back for one game and immediately he vaults to the sixth-best PRS score. What a stud! I am extremely interested to see if Kalif Raymond can continue to put up good enough numbers to remain in the top 24 while not being fantasy-relevant, but I will get off my soapbox and let you go set those lineups, check those waivers, and bask in the glory (and the horror, spooky season commence) that is fantasy football. Best of luck this week!

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