Targets Per Route Run Report: Week 6 (Fantasy Football)
Welcome back to the weekly TPRR report as we’re looking ahead to Week 6 in the NFL. First, a big thank you to Blaise Winn for taking over the article while I was on vacation last week. Be sure to check out his other articles, especially his weekly wide receiver performance article.
This weekly series will give you actionable insights for the week ahead based on Targets Per Route Run (TPRR). TPRR is ultimately a measure of efficiency, calculated by dividing a player’s targets by their routes run and expressing it as a percentage. To learn more about TPRR and why it’s a useful tool, check out the 2023 season preview.
This week, we start analyzing the season so far to highlight potential opportunities and pitfalls for the remainder of the season.
Week 5 Recap
Here’s a look at Week 5’s top 15 in Targets Per Route Run (minimum 🎉 15 🎉 routes run):
*Route and Target Data via PFF.com
- Cooper Kupp (31.3% TPRR) picked up right where he left off and dominated targets in his first game back. One game is too small a sample size, but Puka Nacua (26.2% TPRR) was Matthew Stafford‘s second option. The Rams are running three-receiver sets at the highest rate in the NFL, so Tutu Atwell will still be on the field. However, Atwell (12.5% TPRR) looks like his production will suffer moving forward, and Van Jefferson‘s role is all but extinguished.
- Brandon Powell (35.3% TPRR) finds himself on the leaderboard this week. Most of Powell’s involvement came in the fourth quarter when Justin Jefferson went down (hamstring, placed on short-term IR) and the Vikings were in comeback mode. While the TPRR looks good, Powell only ran 17 routes. Jefferson will miss at least the next four games, and Jordan Addison will be the biggest beneficiary as he moves into two receiver sets for Minnesota. K.J. Osborn and T.J. Hockenson should also see an uptick in targets in JJets’ absence.
- Jaylen Waddle (35.7% TPRR) ran more routes and saw one more target than Tyreek Hill. That’s not a knock on Tyreek, mind you. But if you stuck with Waddle through injury, his arrow is pointing up.
- D.J. Moore (31.3% TPRR) went nuclear on Thursday Night Football and has vaulted to the overall WR3 in half-PPR scoring. The underlying metrics were positive, and Moore’s season is entirely dependent on Justin Fields and week-to-week game scripts. The Bears are still in the bottom half of the league in Pass Rate Over Expectation, but the injuries to the Chicago backfield could create a more pass-heavy approach.
The Season So Far
Now that we are a few weeks into the season, we can start looking at season leaders to project opportunity and performance in the weeks ahead. The right-hand column (+/-) will show a player’s movement in the rankings from week to week. Here are the season leaders in TPRR among qualified receivers through Week 5 (min. 75 routes run):
*Route and Target Data via PFF.com
- Brandon Aiyuk (27.7% TPRR) is putting together a solid season on arguably the best offense in the NFL. The embarrassment of riches at Brock Purdy‘s disposal adds volatility to Aiyuk’s weekly performances, but he looks set to finish as a top-15 receiver if he stays healthy. He’s averaging more targets per game than both Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey.
- Despite the question marks around the Arizona Cardinals, Marquise Brown (26.2% TPRR) has quietly put together a strong season up to this point. Joshua Dobbs and the Cardinals aren’t passing enough to give Brown the ceiling he deserves, but he’s far and away the top target in the offense. With James Conner banged up and solid chemistry between Dobbs and Hollywood, the opportunities should continue for both Brown and Zach Ertz. Plus, what happens when Kyler Murray comes back?!
- Always ******* open. That may be Ja’Marr Chase (28% TPRR) on the field, but it no longer describes the window to trade for him. Over the past three weeks, the case for Chase to be QB-proof is looking strong. Joe Burrow, finally showing some signs of improvement, looked Chase’s way with 19 targets in Week 5.
- The Washington Commanders lead the league in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE), largely due to the almost-comeback against the Bears in Week 5. That’s typically good news for fantasy; however, the targets aren’t consolidating around Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson enough to provide value. At this rate, Dotson will be hanging out on the waiver wire by season’s end.
- The Kansas City receivers continue to disappoint and shouldn’t be trusted as more than dart throws each week. Despite Mahomes’ weekly brilliance and the Chiefs’ reliance on the pass (#2 PROE in the NFL), no qualified Chiefs receiver has a TPRR better than 15%. Note: Kadarius Toney and Rashee Rice simply aren’t on the field enough to qualify for this list, but both are being targeted on 33% of their routes when playing. Both seem like better bench stashes than their teammates, with Rice being the clear pick for me.
Full TPRR List
This list includes all WRs with at least 40 routes run on the season.
|Amon-Ra St. Brown||WR||DET||4||128||33||25.8%|
|Marvin Mims Jr.||WR||DEN||5||51||12||23.5%|
|Michael Pittman Jr.||WR||IND||5||185||43||23.2%|
|Terrace Marshall Jr.||WR||CAR||4||123||23||18.7%|
|Calvin Austin III||WR||PIT||5||138||22||15.9%|
|Allen Robinson II||WR||PIT||5||160||25||15.6%|
|Odell Beckham Jr.||WR||BLT||3||83||11||13.3%|
|DJ Chark Jr.||WR||CAR||4||167||19||11.4%|
|Marvin Jones Jr.||WR||DET||5||79||8||10.1%|