2024 NFL Draft Betting Guide: Mock 1.0 (Fantasy Football)
The 2024 NFL Draft is just a couple of weeks away! The first round kicks off on Thursday, April 25, and there’s still a lot to unfold in regards to how the first round might look. Because betting on the NFL Draft is an information based market, it can be extremely valuable to source Big Boards and mock drafts of the top NFL Draft scouts and companies around the industry. While that’s one piece of the equation, the betting market can also be an indicator of the top 32 picks each year.
In this mock draft, I used betting odds from various sportsbooks as well as information from around the league to try to figure out what the first round might look like on Thursday night. If you’re interested in our process and official plays, be sure to check out our 2024 NFL Draft Props article and listen to The Fantasy Footballers DFS and Betting Podcast, which returns this Friday. Without further ado, Mock 1.0 is live!
*Odds accurate at time of publishing*
1. Chicago Bears – QB Caleb Williams
Betting Market: Number 1 Overall Pick (-8000)
Analysis: Justin Fields is now in Pittsburgh. Barring a crazy off the field issue, Williams will be the pick as the Bears’ new franchise QB.
2. Washington Commanders – QB Jayden Daniels
Betting Market: Number 2 Overall Pick (-140)
Analysis: The Commanders have not leaked who they plan to select with the #2 overall pick, but there’s a ton of noise on Daniels to Washington. Most recently, Adam Schefter said on his podcast that “signs continue to point to Jayden Daniels being the 2nd overall pick.” We took Daniels to go #2 overall a couple of weeks ago at (-115) based on additional information, but at this point in the process, I do believe Drake Maye is still very live to go to the Commanders. For this exercise, we’ll follow the market and slot Daniels to Washington. It’s also worth pointing out that in a recent piece on The Athletic that surveyed NFL execs about what the Commanders will do at 2, most believe Daniels will be the pick but there’s others that think it’ll be Maye while one thinks it’ll be JJ. TL;DR – we don’t actually know yet.
3. New England Patriots – QB Drake Maye
Betting Market: Number 3 Overall Pick (+100)
Analysis: There’s a lot of buzz right now on Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy to sneak into the top 5 of the NFL Draft. While I do see a path where that happens, I can’t help but get C.J. Stroud vibes from last year when looking at Maye. Following the college season, a lot of people considered Maye an excellent prospect, but now all you see in the media is people nit picking his game. There’s a lot of rumblings that owner Robert Kraft wants to team to stand pat and take a QB. I think they stay here and take either Daniels or Maye – whoever is available at this pick.
4. Arizona Cardinals – WR Marvin Harrison Jr.
Betting Market: Number 4 Overall Pick (-200)
Analysis: The Cardinals were not shy about moving around the draft board last year, going from 3 to 12 then back up to 6 to land OT Paris Johnson. There’s certainly a chance they move back if the Vikings want to come up for J.J. McCarthy. However, Harrison is one of the few true blue chip prospects in this class and a no brainer fit in Arizona’s offense. Despite some rumors that some teams have Malik Nabers WR1 on their board, it’s worth noting that the betting markets don’t necessarily buy it. Marv is (-600) to be the first WR selected in the draft.
5. Minnesota Vikings (Via Trade) – QB J.J. McCarthy
Betting Market: Number 5 Overall Pick (+400)
Analysis: The Vikings currently have the 11th overall pick as well as the 23rd overall pick and enter the NFL Draft with Sam Darnold, Nick Mullens and Jaren Hall on the depth chart. ESPN’s Kevin Seifert recently wrote about the team’s plans at QB. The Broncos picking at #12 I’m sure would love to land one of the top QBs in this class, but they may lack the firepower to go move up into the top five, and the Giants could be interested at #6, so if the Vikes move up, they’ll likely need to leapfrog the G-Men to land a QB. The Athletic’s Daniel Popper in his Mock 2.0 had the Bolts trading back with the Vikings, but he also notes it’s possible that the team stands pat and selects a top tier WR if their preferred option is available. It’s worth noting that McCarthy is the odds on favorite to go to Minnesota at (+115).
6. New York Giants – WR Malik Nabers
Betting Market: Number 6 Overall Pick (+160)
Analysis: The Giants could be in the J.J. McCarthy mix, but with him already gone in this exercise, the team stands pat and lands a top notch WR prospect in LSU’s Malik Nabers. He’s the odds on favorite to 6th overall and on FanDuel, he’s (-200) to be the second WR selected. I do think any of the big three in this class could be in consideration for New York, but with Marv off the board, Nabers makes sense given his elite athletic profile. Since 2019, GM Joe Schoen has prioritized plus athletes from Power 5 schools – In the last two drafts, he took EDGE Kayvon Thibodeaux (9.68 RAS) and CB Deonte Banks (10.0 RAS) in Round 1. After crushing the Combine, Nabers scored 9.65 on the RAS, so he definitely checks the box if Schoen does indeed have a type. This WR room is desperate for a legit playmaker, and Nabers is electric.
Spoke with two WR coaches at combine and asked them who they would take: Malik Nabers vs Rome Odunze. Both said Nabers because of his explosiveness. He’s going to make the first guy miss every time. It’s special. https://t.co/uflHR2TGij
— Jordan Raanan (@JordanRaanan) March 27, 2024
7. Tennessee Titans – OT Joe Alt
Betting Market: Number 7 Overall Pick (-105)
Analysis: Alt is viewed as the consensus OT1 in this class, and the betting markets reflect that. He’s currently the odds on favorite to go 7th overall, and he’s also as massive favorite at (-250) to be the first OT taken. We thought the Titans might be in play for one of the top WRs in this class prior to shocking the football world by signing Calvin Ridley to a massive contract. The O-line is a mess down in Tennessee and Alt fits an obvious need.
8. New York Jets (Via Trade) – WR Rome Odunze
Betting Market: Position of NYJ first drafted player? Wide Receiver (+200)
Analysis: It’s no secret that the Jets are all…and I mean ALL…the way in to win in 2024 with Aaron Rodgers and a coaching staff that’s fighting to keep their jobs. GM Joe Douglas takes a page out of his mentor, Howie Roseman’s, playbook to leapfrog the Bears who seem to be the chalk pick for Odunze at 9. The Jets have a stud in Garrett Wilson, but Big Mike Williams is coming off a torn ACL and only there on a one-year prove it deal. Behind those two guys? The ghost of Allen Lazard (who could still be cut), Xaier Gipson, Jason Brownlee, Malik Taylor….Sure, they could stand pat and grab a tackle or take Brock Bowers, but I see them being aggressive after using a lot of their free agency funds on veteran tackles. In his most recent mock draft a few weeks ago, Daniel Jeremiah had Gang Green trading with the Chargers at five to go up and get Marv. I’m following the tea leaves here as DJ and Joe Douglas are pretty close. Perhaps it’s a signal they want to be aggressive in landing one of the top WRs in this draft.
9. Chicago Bears – EDGE Dallas Turner
Betting Market: First Defensive Player Drafted (-170)
Analysis: The Bears are the chalk pick for Rome Odunze in most mocks and I do think if he’s available, he could be the pick. However, OT and EDGE are also a need, and HC Matt Eberflus made it seem pretty likely that the club will stay at 9 and make the pick. Turner is (-150) to be a top-10 pick on FanDuel. Here’s Peter Schrager a few weeks ago talking about the possibility of getting a cornerstone piece on the offensive side of the ball in Caleb Williams and a cornerstone piece on the defensive side of the ball in Dallas Turner:
Caleb Williams + Dallas Turner sounds good to me if I’m a @ChicagoBears fan… pic.twitter.com/wJxZWAatw5
— Peter Schrager (@PSchrags) March 20, 2024
10. Atlanta Falcons (Via Trade) – CB Quinyon Mitchell
Betting Market: First Cornerback Selected (-210)
Analysis: The chalk pick for Atlanta is Dallas Turner at #8, but in this exercise, Atlanta moves back and opts for the corner out of Toledo, who is the odds on favorite to be CB1 in this class. The Falcons lack a proven CB2 opposite A.J. Terrell, and Terrell is in the final year of his deal. It’s worth noting that Atlanta did have a top-30 visit with Mitchell and also met with him at the Combine.
11. Los Angeles Chargers (Via Trade) – OT Taliese Fuaga
Betting Market: Fuaga to be a Top-10 Pick (+200)
Analysis: In this mock, LA moves back after trading with the Vikings. At 11, they land a strong offensive tackle prospect in Fuaga, who’s ranked 10th overall on Daniel Jeremiah’s Top-50 list. The Harbaugh and Greg Roman led Chargers will certainly look to establish it and build this football team from the inside out, so a top tackle prospect in this exercise makes too much sense. In the betting markets, he’s viewed as a fringe top-10 pick and he’s got the second-shortest odds to be the first offensive lineman taken behind Joe Alt.
12. Denver Broncos – QB Bo Nix
Betting Market: Team to Draft Bo Nix? Denver Broncos (-130)
Analysis: This is not what I would do, but the betting markets lean heavily towards Denver selecting Nix, assuming they’re not able to land one of the top four QBs in the draft. Twelfth overall seems a bit rich for an older QB prospect who’s got some yellow flags like Nix, but as it stands, Jarrett Stidham is the penciled in Week 1 starter with Ben DiNucci as the backup. I cannot fathom Sean Payton going into 2024 with those two as the dudes. Maybe they trade back and accumulate more picks prior to selecting Nix. After all, they don’t have their second round pick this year, so if they want Nix, they may have to snag him somewhere in Round 1. On Caesars, the O/U for QBs taken in Round 1 is 4.5 with the over heavily juiced to (-220).
13. Las Vegas Raiders – CB Terrion Arnold
Betting Market: Position of LV first drafted player? Cornerback (+185)
Analysis: Head coach, Antonio Pierce, has publicly called adding a CB1, a “priority” then went to Bama’s Pro Day to see Arnold in person after meeting with him at the Combine. This pick could easily be an offensive tackle in a great class, but for this exercise with Mitchell already gone, Arnold is the pick.
Terrion Arnold talking to Raiders’ head coach Antonio Pierce at Alabama’s Pro Day.@TDAlabamaMag pic.twitter.com/wJHcYvUgeO
— Stephen M. Smith (@CoachingMSmith) March 20, 2024
14. New Orleans Saints – OT Olu Fashanu
Betting Market: Position of NO first drafted player? Offensive Line (-200)
Analysis: There may not be a more obvious need in the draft than the Saints needing an offensive tackle, especially with Ryan Ramcyzk’s status up in the air following knee surgery. Former first rounder Trevor Penning was benched at times last year, and in a deep tackle class, I see them using the 14th overall pick to bolster the O-line.
15. Indianapolis Colts – WR Brian Thomas Jr.
Betting Market: Position of IND first drafted player? Wide Receiver (+300)
Analysis: There’s no doubt that Indy would love to add to their CB room, but with Mitchell and Arnold both off the board, Brian Thomas makes sense to help complement Michael Pittman and aid in Anthony Richardson‘s development. We know Chris Ballard loves to prioritize athletic players in Round 1, and Thomas’s 9.82 RAS after blazing a 4.33 in the forty fits what the Colts have prioritized in Round 1 under Ballard. He’d be an immediate upgrade over first-team All-Cardio MVP Alec Pierce. On Caesars, Thomas’ O/U is 16.5 with the under currently sitting at (-220).
16. Seattle Seahawks – OT Troy Fautanu
Betting Market: Position of SEA first drafted player? Offensive Line (-160)
Analysis: Fautanu is becoming a bit of a chalk pick for SEA at 16, but considering his former head coach at Washington, Ryan Grubb, is now the offensive coordinator in Seattle, it makes sense. He knows the system, and he’s be an immediate plug and play option for a young line that’s ascending.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars – EDGE Jared Verse
Betting Market: Verse Draft Position O/U 15.5
Analysis: There’s rumors that some teams have Verse higher on their board than Dallas Turner, but in the betting markets, Turner is the consensus EDGE1 in 2024. Jacksonville has been heavily linked to corner in this class, but with the top two options off the board, GM Trent Baalke continues to add to their group of pass rushers. Verse would give them flexibility with Josh Allen currently playing on the franchise tag. With a draft position prop of 15.5, he should go somewhere in the teens.
18. Cincinnati Bengals – TE Brock Bowers
Betting Market: Bowers Draft Position O/U 11.5
Analysis: Bowers is one of the more difficult prospects to place in mocks. He’s an extremely strong prospect, but we know the TE position in Round 1 is generally overvalued. In this exercise, he slides a little bit and lands in Cincy to give Joe Burrow another weapon. In the betting markets, Cincy is heavily linked to O-line (-160). Bowers’ O/U draft position is also down at 11.5, but the over at 11.5 is juiced to (-130).
Steve Limentani/ISI Photos/Getty Images
19. Los Angeles Rams – DT Byron Murphy
Betting Market: Position of LAR first drafted player? Defensive Line/Edge (-150)
Analysis: The Rams haven’t picked in Round 1 of the NFL Draft since 2016 when they took Jared Goff #1 overall. So, we essentially have no history to go off of here with current GM Les Snead. Murphy is the consensus DT1 in this class, and he fits an obvious need now that the GOAT Aaron Donald has decided to retire.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers – OT Amarius Mims
Betting Market: Position of PIT first drafted player? Offensive Line (-240)
Analysis: The Steelers’ first round pick (or at least guys on their short list) seems to be public knowledge on a yearly basis. Pittsburgh is one of the few teams that generally does draft off their Top-30 visit list, and they’ve already had official visits with Mims. We know what this offense wants to do with Arthur Smith, and Mims would be a good fit on the right side of the line for an offense that wants to pound the rock. Worth noting, on Caesars, Mims’ draft position of 22.5 is heavily juiced to the under at (-220), so this feels like the range for the prospect out of Georgia.
21. Miami Dolphins – IOL Graham Barton
Betting Market: Position of MIA first drafted player? Offensive Line (-125)
Analysis: Barton, the offensive lineman out of Duke, is screaming up draft boards and seemingly a lock to go Round 1. No, literally…he’s (-1000) on DraftKings to go in the top-32. The Dolphins’ O-line is in flux and Barton, who’s an athletic specimen, could play a number of different positions on the line for Mike McDaniel.
22. Philadelphia Eagles – OT JC Latham
Betting Market: Position of PHI first drafted player? Offensive Line (+150)
Analysis: The Eagles are usually very willing to take best player available at a premium position. Lane Johnson turns 34 in May, and we know Philly is willing to re-up their O-line a year or two early rather than waiting to address it when it’s actually a need. They signed some of their current starters to extensions this off-season, but Howie has shown us he’s not afraid to keep adding depth to one of the best units in football. Latham’s draft position is O/U 14.5 with the over juiced to (-200) on Caesars, so it’s possible he falls in to the back half of Round 1.
23. Los Angeles Chargers (Via Trade) – CB Cooper DeJean
Betting Market: N/A
Analysis: John Harbaugh’s teams run the ball and play great defense. After addressing the O-line earlier in the draft, they shore up the secondary with their second pick with a prospect in DeJean whom Harbaugh knows quite well after their days together in the Big Ten. DeJean is Daniel Jeremiah’s 25th overall prospect while he’s 24th on The Athletic’s Consensus Big Board.
24. Dallas Cowboys – LB Edgerrin Cooper
Betting Market: Cooper to go Round 1 (+330)
Analysis: I’ll admit, this may seem way off compared to consensus, but hey, the NFL Draft is wildly unpredictable, and Cooper is getting a lot of buzz as the LB1 in this class who could sneak into Round 1. Cooper has already bet privately with the Cowboys multiple times, so there does seem to be some interest here. Daniel Jeremiah has Cooper as his 26th player on his big board, which could suggest the NFL is higher on him than media suggests.
25. Green Bay Packers – OT Tyler Guyton
Betting Market: Position of GB first drafted player? Offensive Line (-125)
Analysis: Green Bay could go a number of directions, but we’ll follow the betting markets here. They lost Jon Runyan and Yosh Nijman in free agency while long time Packer, David Bakhtiari, was released. Protecting Jordan Love could be a priority for the Packers, and Guyton’s athletic profile fits what the Packers have historically prioritized.
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – EDGE Chop Robinson
Betting Market: Position of TB first drafted player? Defensive Line/Edge (+185)
Analysis: Like most Penn State prospects, Chop blew away the combine, solidifying him as a top-32 prospect in this class. GM Jason Licht has historically targeted high RAS players in the first round, and Chop’s 9.72 fits the mold. Tampa lost Shaq Barrett this off-season, so Robinson fits a need.
27. Arizona Cardinals – CB Nate Wiggins
Betting Market: Wiggins to go Round 1 (-1000)
Analysis: As is always the case at the back of Round 1, this pick could be a number of different players. I’ve seen plenty of buzz around the Cardinals wanting to address their offensive line, so they could be in the mix for an offensive lineman with this pick, but the secondary also needs playmakers. The Cardinals finished 27th in yards per pass attempt allowed (7.6) and 32nd in EPA per dropback last season. Signing Sean Murphy-Bunting in free agency helps, but this team needs a CB2.
28. Buffalo Bills – WR Adonai Mitchell
Betting Market: Position of BUF first drafted player? Wide Receiver (-240)
Analysis: After trading Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans, the Bills are expected to pursue a WR in a loaded class. In this exercise, I have them staying put and grabbing AD Mitchell out of Texas, but given GM Brandon Beane’s history of moving up on day one to get his guy, I could easily see the team being aggressive and moving up to grab someone like Brian Thomas Jr.
29. Detroit Lions – CB Kool-Aid McKinistry
Betting Market: Position of DET first drafted player? Cornerback (+135)
Analysis: The Lions love players who have that dawg in them. McKinistry worked out at his pro day despite battling a Jones fracture in his foot. After releasing Cam Sutton due to off-the-field issues, adding McKinistry makes sense. Brad Holmes can pair him with his former teammate, Brian Branch, and it fills an obvious need. Kool-Aid is (-360) on DraftKings to go in Round 1.
Alabama CB Kool-Aid McKinstry probably made himself some money here at pro day, running a 40 that scouts clocked as low as 4.47 — despite a Jones fracture that doctors discovered at the combine. He’ll have surgery Friday and is expected to be full go for camp. pic.twitter.com/mee0fEihE3
— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) March 20, 2024
30. Baltimore Ravens – OT Jordan Morgan
Betting Market: Position of BAL first drafted player? Offensive Line (-195)
Analysis: At -195 odds, the betting market is heavily favoring O-line to Baltimore in the back of Round 1. Tyler Guyton has been a common player here in other mocks, but with Guyton off the board, they nab Jordan Morgan out of Arizona.
31. San Francisco 49ers – EDGE Liatu Latu
Betting Market: Position of SF first drafted player? Defensive Lineman/Edge (+400)
Analysis: Latu is arguably the best pass rusher in this class, but he’s got some health/medical concerns in his profile that could cause him to slide. Admittedly, if he went in the top-15 of this draft, I would not be surprised, so this spot at 31 could look foolish in a few weeks. There’s reports out there that some teams are comfortably embracing risk with Latu while others have taken him off their board.
32. Kansas City Chiefs – OT Kingsley Suamataia
Betting Market: Position of KC first drafted player? Offensive Line (+170)
Analysis: The Chiefs have some things to sort out over the next few weeks with Rashee Rice‘s recent off-the-field concerns. If they get a sense that Rice could be suspended for a lengthy amount of time, this pick could easily be a WR. Honestly, even if Rice’s legal troubles weren’t a factor, KC could look to add a talented pass catcher with Hollywood Brown only in town on a one-year deal and Travis Kelce another year closer to retirement. For this exercise, they shore up the O-line with Suamataia out of BYU, a name that’s been linked to KC throughout the pre-draft process.