2024 NFL Draft Props: Best Bets (Fantasy Football)
Kyle and I have taken on the NFL Draft over the last two years from a wagering perspective and spent several DFS Podcasts last offseason talking about the Draft from a prop betting perspective. Overall, this was a great learning experience and a ton of fun! We’re taking the plunge early this year and will be sure to update this article with each bet we personally make. Of course, we’ll also be talking about the NFL Draft on multiple DFS shows when the podcast returns in April, so make sure you’re subscribed on your favorite podcast platform.
The 2024 NFL Draft kicks off on April 25. As the days and weeks go by, more and more NFL Draft props will become available across a variety of books. We recommend shopping around for the best lines and prices whenever possible. You can also get alerted in our Discord if you’re a JoinTheFoot or UDK+ subscriber whenever we add to our betting card.
General Strategy and Thoughts
- Betting NFL Draft props will not make you rich – This is a relatively soft market and honestly, a bit of a niche market. Books are very willing to take on thousands and thousands of dollars (even millions at times) on NFL lines and totals because they’re extremely efficient lines and Vegas knows they’re going to win in the long term. Most books will set a limit on the amount of money you can place on a prop bet and that includes the NFL Draft.
- This market is fluid and is sure to change – Unlike NFL spreads and totals, where we may only see things shift by a point or two, the odds and values of these props will change drastically over a couple of months. We recommend viewing this process as a market and being willing to adjust as necessary. At times, it might even make sense to bet the same prop but with a different player, if you think the market has moved enough in the wrong direction.
- Build a portfolio – It’s certainly possible to win a few wagers if you’re only betting a handful, but because this market is so fluid, there’s going to be inefficiencies all over the place. For example, there might be value in a bet right now in February that no longer has value in April. Similarly, new information might become available in March that wasn’t available in February, and now the bet you just placed a month ago looks off. Don’t get take lock – adjust!
- Be sure to shop around at multiple books if you’re able – If you live in a state with legalized wagering that offers multiple books, be sure to try to find the best odds, prices, and even types of wagers that are available. Because this is a niche market, it’s difficult for books to wrap their heads around a market that might adjust day to day and week to week by the time mid-April gets here.
**Lines accurate at time of publishing**
1. Position of Titans First Draft Pick? Wide Receiver (+160)
Sportsbook: FanDuel
Date: 3/13/24
Analysis: The Titans are currently slated to pick 7th overall, putting them in a prime position to take one of the top offensive linemen or WRs. We’d make this line closer to 50/50, so we’ll take the value here on (+160) for the Titans to select one of Malik Nabers or Rome Odunze (assuming Marvin Harrison Jr. is already gone). New head coach, Brian Callahan, comes from Cincinnati where he’s been part of an aggressive pass-first offense with Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. When the Bengals were in a similar position a few years back when they were deciding between Chase and Penei Sewell, they ultimately took Chase, which has worked out well for that franchise. At the Combine, Callahan spoke about needing to prioritize the vertical passing game, and both Daniel Jeremiah and Dane Brugler have all of the ‘Big 3’ WRs inside their top-7 on their updated Big Boards. Bill Callahan, Brian’s dad, is joining his son in Tennessee after coaching the offensive line in Cleveland for the past few years. Bill is regarded as one of the best offensive line coaches in the game, and he’s been routinely able to get the most out of his guys. Perhaps they opt for a dynamic downfield weapon given the current state of their depth chart – DeAndre Hopkins is set to turn 32 years old in a contract year while Treylon Burks looks like a swing and a miss. Behind those guys, the talent is non-existent.
*Note – this wager was posted shortly before the signing of Calvin Ridley. Obviously, that changes things quite a bit, making this a wager we’d pass on with this new information.*
2. Position of Saints First Draft Pick? Offensive Line (-145)
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Date: 3/26/24
Analysis: The Saints have seemingly missed on 2022 first-round pick Trevor Penning, who wasn’t even in the starting lineup on a consistent basis last year. On top of that, news has surfaced that OT Ryan Ramczyk is recovering from knee surgery and may not be on schedule in that recovery. Last year’s starting LT Andrus Peat is also currently a free agent. Most mock drafts right now have the Saints selecting O-line with the 14th overall pick, and this is a loaded OL class. One of Olu Fashanu, JC Latham, Troy Fautanu or Taliese Fuaga should be on the board when the Saints pick at 14.
3. Jayden McDaniels to be the #2 Overall Pick (-115)
Sportsbook: FanDuel
Date: 3/28/24
Analysis: This is one that we’ve been hesitant to bet for awhile as it still remains to be seen who the Commanders have as their top QB in this class behind Caleb Williams. However, this number has moved to a very reasonable price after it was priced as high as (-200) a few weeks ago. It’s hard to ignore the drumbeat on Daniels > Maye – we have this piece from The Athletic where several NFL execs have Daniels over Maye, Todd McShay says he’s hearing Daniels is the preferred prospect, while Albert Breer is hearing the same thing. On top of that, Ben Standig, who covers the Commanders for the Athletic recently had Daniels going #2 overall to the Commanders in his most recent mock. There’s just too much smoke at this point in the process that we believe this is a +EV bet at this price. However, we would not chase steam here if the line moves – anything worse than (-125) is a pass for us.
4. Edgerrin Cooper Round 1 Pick (+330)
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Date: 4/4/24
Analysis: A value play at these odds as it’s entirely possible the Texas A&M LB sneaks into the back of Round 1. He’s currently the 20th overall player on Daniel Jeremiah’s updated Top-50 Prospect List, and Cooper has met multiple times with the Cowboys throughout the pre-draft process. The consensus LB1 in the class is worth a small wager bet at these odds to sneak into the top 32, but we wouldn’t play anything worse than 3 to 1.
5. Total Number of WRs in Round 1? Under 6.5 (-175)
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Date: 4/8/24
Analysis: This WR class is loaded with talent, but most consensus mocks have only five or six at most going in the top 32. Right now, Marv, Nabers, Odunze and Thomas are locks to go in Round 1. That leaves guys like AD Mitchell, Xavier Worthy, Ladd McConkey, Troy Franklin, Keon Coleman and Ricky Pearsall as potential candidates to go in the top-32. We expect at least one of this group to go (probably Mitchell and/or Worthy), but expecting three of them feels like a stretch. Here’s how many WRs each of the top NFL Draft sites have in their top-32 prospects as of mid April:
- The Athletic: 6
- Daniel Jeremiah (NFL Network): 5
- PFF: 5
- ESPN: 7
6. Total Number of QBs in Round 1? Under 4.5 (+200)
Sportsbook: DraftKings, Caesars (+190)
Date: 4/10/24
Analysis: Since 2012, there have been 5+ QBs taken in Round 1 just twice. Historically, QBs are over-mocked in the NFL Draft community year over year (Hendon Hooker, Malik Willis, Will Levis, etc. etc.), and while there is obviously a possibility Penix or Nix sneak into the first round, other betting markets suggest it’s a thin needle to thread. Nix’s O/U on Caesars is 26.5 with the over (-300) while it’s at 32.5 on DraftKings. Nix is frequently linked to Denver at 12th overall, yet most NFL Draft analysts have a 2nd or 3rd round grade on him or view him as a fringe first rounder. As for Penix, he turns 24 years old in May and has a significant injury history. Outside of the occasional mock that has Penix was over-drafted at 13th to the Raiders, there aren’t many suitors for these older QB prospects. At this price, this is a bet worth making given the holes in Nix and Penix’s profiles. Here are where these prospects are ranked on industry Big Boards:
- Daniel Jeremiah (NFL Network): Nix – 29, Penix – 32
- PFF: Nix – 34, Penix – 46
- ESPN: Nix – 40, Penix – 50
- The Athletic Consensus – Nix – 32, Penix – 40
- Dane Brugler (The Athletic) – Nix – 37, Penix – 57
7. Byron Murphy to be the first defensive player drafted: (+1400)
Sportsbook: FanDuel, Caesars, BetMGM
Date: 4/18/24
Analysis: Murphy is the consensus DT1 in the class and gaining steam. His over/under has gone from 18.5 to 16.5 with the under on DraftKings juiced to (-200) as of this writing. With the potential to be a top-15 selection in a draft class that should feature plenty of offensive players in the first 10-15 picks, we’ll embrace the variance here at long-shot odds. On his recent media call, Daniel Jeremiah said, “If you asked me today, who is a surprise top 10 pick? Like who is the 8th pick in the draft that we didn’t see coming? It is Byron Murphy. That is a name that is being called a lot around the league. I wouldn’t sleep on him going much higher than we all think.”
8. Ladd McConkey to be a first round pick (+135)
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Date: 4/23/24
Analysis: A value on DK relative to other books where McConkey is close to even money. A route runner technician who fits in today’s game, the NFL is reportedly higher on the Georgia wide out than the general public suggests.
The #NFLDraft is just 3 days away! Here are 5 things @PSchrags is hearing leading up to Thursday 👂
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