Fantasy Football Dynasty Report for Week 4
Welcome back to another edition of the Dynasty Report!
Every week, this article will highlight the most impactful storylines from a dynasty perspective, as changes throughout the regular season can significantly impact a player’s value beyond this year. To give you a holistic view of the dynasty landscape, you can expect the following segments each week:
- Rookie Opportunity Dashboard: Overview of Rookie Performances in the NFL
- Dynasty Stock Report: Recap of the Risers & Fallers in the Dynasty Landscape
- Prospect Watch List: Production Profiles & Analysis for CFB Prospects
And if you are looking for an even deeper look into dynasty football, be sure to tune in every week to the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast with Borg, Betz, and one of the Ballers!
Rookie Opportunity Dashboard
To keep the dashboard concise, I will focus only on the most fantasy-relevant rookies at each position.
For reference:
- Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) is a metric closely tied to volume and usage. We want to target rookies that rank highly in this metric, as it could potentially signal future opportunity and fantasy success.
- Fantasy Points Over Expected or FPOE signifies efficiency relative to a player’s usage. FPOE is the variance between their actual production and expected fantasy value. This metric will generally fluctuate and regress to the mean (zero), which is why we isolate it from their baseline production (xFP) to determine which players we can rely on each week.
- Opportunity Share represents the percentage of targets and rush attempts a player accounts for on their team.
If you want me to include other metrics or have any questions on the data below, let me know on Bluesky @MarvinJE or Twitter @FF_MarvinE.
Rookie Stats and Observations from Week 3:
- Omarion Hampton finally had his breakout game! With Najee Harris leaving the game early, Hampton set single-game career-highs across multiple metrics, including Expected Fantasy Points (17.4), opportunity share (35.1), and Fantasy Points Over Expected (+4.4). For context, he finished the week within the top 10 in usage value. If this is any indication of how the Chargers want to use Hampton going forward, he should be primed for multiple RB1 performances the rest of the way.
- Cam Skattebo was right behind Hampton in usage value with 16.1 Expected Fantasy Points. While the Tyrone Tracy injury likely impacted his usage, Skattebo was already starting to see more opportunities heading into Week 3. The most staggering metric, however, was his target share at 26.7% as the Chiefs’ defense was heavily focused on shutting down Malik Nabers. Although his target share is expected to decrease, his role in the receiving game will ensure he remains a top-20 RB, provided he remains the lead back for the Giants.
- Quinshon Judkins continues to take over the Browns’ backfield as he set a career-high 38.5% opportunity share against the Packers. On top of that, he accounted for 95% of the team’s rushing attempts, indicating that he is clearly the lead rusher on the team. While his limited usage in the receiving game could prevent him from regularly ranking within the top 10 in usage value (RB18 in Expected Points in Week 3), he should still be viewed as a weekly RB2 for fantasy managers.
Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images
- While I am not fully panicking about Ashton Jeanty, the Raiders’ offensive struggles (both in the passing game and offensive line) could prevent him from reaching his full potential in his rookie year. Equally concerning, his lack of involvement as a pass catcher further reduces his floor from a fantasy perspective. However, with more favorable matchups on the horizon (starting with the Bears in Week 4), Jeanty’s breakout could happen as soon as this week.
- While many expected Jacory Croskey-Merritt to take over the Commanders’ backfield, it was Chris Rodriguez who led them in usage value in Week 3. Although JCM wasn’t far behind with 7.3 Expected Fantasy Points (RB39), it was still a disappointing performance. Due to the Commander’s inconsistent RB usage, we may need to adjust our expectations for Croskey-Merritt going forward.
- With the recent injury to Mike Evans, Emeka Egbuka is well-positioned to be a weekly WR2 option for fantasy managers. In Week 3, with Evans leaving early, he accounted for 29% of the Bucs’ targets and nearly 40% of their air yards. Even when Chris Godwin returns, I expect Egbuka to remain the lead receiver for one of the most efficient passing offenses in the league.
- Luther Burden was one of the most efficient WRs this past week, finishing with +11.4 Fantasy Points Over Expected against the Cowboys. Naturally, the flea-flicker touchdown is what stood out in his performance. However, we continue to see Burden command targets at an efficient rate. In Week 3, he received a season-high 31% route participation, while leading the team with a 33% targets per route run. While that should eventually lead to more snaps and targets, Burden will be difficult to trust in your lineups until he overtakes Olamide Zaccheaus and D.J. Moore.
- With Jayden Reed set to miss the next few weeks, many expected Matthew Golden to assume a more significant role. And in Week 3, Golden received the highest route participation (84%) and target share (16%) of his career. He also accounted for 77% (!!) of Jordan Love’s air yards as they finally connected on a deep ball in the second half. While his usage value still ranked outside of the top 50, the incremental improvements in Golden’s usage are encouraging to see.
- After starting his career with two inactive games (coach’s decision), Oronde Gadsden finally received his opportunity. In Week 3, he only participated in 28% of the routes, but commanded an impressive 15% target share and 40% targets per route run.
Dynasty Stock Report
Tetairoa McMillan – Carolina Panthers, WR – Stock Up
Coming out of Arizona, there were several reasons to be optimistic about Tetairoa McMillan’s dynasty outlook, as he checked almost every box from a production and efficiency standpoint. Not only did he account for 38% of Arizona’s receiving production in his final two seasons, but he also posted a 99th percentile success rate (76%) and EPA per Target (1.25) throughout his collegiate career. Coupled with first-round capital, McMillan ranked within the 96th percentile in my rookie model, with comparable profiles to Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, and Drake London.
Through his first three games with the Panthers, we are already seeing glimpses of his WR1 potential, commanding elite volume in Dave Canales’ offense. For context, McMillan is the WR11 in Expected Fantasy Points (12.9), averaging an impressive 24% target share and 36% air yards share to start the season. In other words, even though it has not translated into consistent fantasy production, dynasty managers should still be encouraged by his elite target-earning ability. Assuming he continues to operate as the Panthers’ WR1, I would not be surprised to see him ranked as a top-12 dynasty WR by the end of the year.
Kaleb Johnson – Pittsburgh Steelers, RB – Stock Down
Coming out of Iowa, Kaleb Johnson was one of my favorite prospects as he entered with one of the better production profiles in the 2025 class. Unfortunately, he has struggled to make a positive impact for Pittsburgh, as he has clearly been playing behind both Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell to start the year. Especially after a costly fumble on special teams in Week 2, Johnson did not receive a single snap in Week 3 as Warren was the RB1 for a second week in a row. While I am still hopeful that Johnson’s role could improve, it is clear that Mike Tomlin does not trust him after multiple mistakes to start the year. For now, it goes without saying that Johnson remains unstartable until the Steelers decide to re-integrate him into their weekly game plan.
Quentin Johnston – Los Angeles Chargers, WR – Stock Up
Quentin Johnston’s early-season breakout has been one of my favorite storylines this season, as he has quickly become one of Justin Herbert’s primary targets. Most importantly, his consistent usage is what has me hopeful that his breakout could continue. In three games, Johnston is averaging a:
- 22.4% Target Share
- 34.2% Air Yards Share
- 92% Route Participation
- 12.8 Expected Fantasy Points (WR12)
Especially with the Chargers averaging the highest Pass Rate Over Expected so far this year (+9%), Johnston’s usage has easily translated into WR1 production. On top of that, he has dominated the downfield targets in the Chargers’ offense, which are typically the high-value opportunities we want our fantasy WRs to receive. In fact, Johnston has accounted for 43% of the team’s deep targets (targets with +20 air yards) and 50% of their deep air yards. And assuming Los Angeles continues to pass at a high rate, Johnston’s breakout should be sustainable for the rest of the season.
James Conner – Arizona Cardinals, RB – Stock Down
It was a devastating week for injuries at the RB position as James Conner was carted off the field early in the third quarter in what was initially believed to be an ankle injury. Jonathan Gannon later confirmed that Conner will undergo foot surgery and will be forced to miss the rest of the season. Naturally, this is a devastating blow to the Cardinals’ offense, a team that has relied heavily on Conner over the last few years. Unfortunately, this creates even more uncertainty for Conner’s future with Arizona as he approaches his age-31 season with a non-guaranteed contract in 2026. On the other hand, this does open up an opportunity for Trey Benson, who has shown potential early this season. If he can capitalize on his improved usage, Benson could be a weekly RB2 option for dynasty managers for the remainder of the year.
Prospect Watch List
Entering the season, Jonah Coleman was one of the players highlighted in our off-season dynasty report, where we analyzed some of the top prospects in the 2026 class. In my initial breakdown, Coleman stood out as one of the most elusive RBs in college football, averaging nearly 25% of Washington’s entire offensive production last season. However, that still left plenty of room for improvement as his 2024 campaign only ranked in the 59th percentile since 2013.
So far this season, he has done nothing but improve his dynasty stock heading into the 2026 NFL Draft. Through three games, Coleman has accounted for 35% of the team’s offensive production and has averaged 2.46 Scrimmage Yards per Team Play. Equally encouraging, Coleman ranks near the top in both EPA per opportunity (0.57) and success rate (55%) this season. To add further context, if he can maintain his production, his Senior campaign would rank in the 98th percentile among RBs drafted over the last decade. In short, while I would still place prospects like Jeremiyah Love and Darius Taylor ahead of him, Coleman is quickly moving up my draft boards after a dominant start to the 2025 season.
As we approach the 2026 NFL Draft, here is a list of the most productive college football RBs this season:
