Dynasty Report: An Early Look At The 2026 Running Back Class (Fantasy Football)
In dynasty football, it’s never too early to look ahead. Especially for rebuilding teams, understanding the value and potential upside of an upcoming class can be crucial in quickly transforming their roster into a championship contender. If you are currently holding onto multiple 2026 first-round picks, this article will hopefully provide some insight and context on next year’s rookie class.
Naturally, it is difficult to top the 2025 draft, which included multiple top-tier prospects in Ashton Jeanty, TreVeyon Henderson, and Omarion Hampton, among others. For context, my rookie model had four prospects graded in the +90th percentile, a group that has historically averaged a 91% breakout rate in the NFL. The 2026 draft is unlikely to match that. However, it is crucial to note that dynasty values can still drastically change over the next nine months. With the potential for breakouts and an opportunity for prospects to still elevate their game, I would not be shocked to see a handful of RBs improve their draft stock. With that being said, let’s dive into some of the most intriguing dynasty prospects and assess their current trajectory as we head into the 2025 college football season.
In last year’s article, I called out Ashton Jeanty as my early candidate to be the 2025 rookie RB1, purely based on his elite production profile and efficiency. Unfortunately, there isn’t a prospect in next year’s class that quite matches Jeanty’s profile. However, the closest comparison would be Darius Taylor out of Minnesota, who has been one of the most productive RBs over the last two seasons on a per-game basis. In fact, his 2.27 Scrimmage Yards per Team Play would rank as the most productive true freshman season since 2013, ahead of both Nick Chubb’s and Jonathan Taylor’s elite freshman campaigns. In addition to his efficiency, he has dominated the yardage and TDs for the Golden Gophers, accounting for about 36% of their entire offensive production over the last two years. And even though he took a step back in 2024, his sophomore production still ranks in the 84th percentile among drafted RBs. In totality, Taylor’s production is exactly what we want to see from a potential day one or two RB. Assuming he is drafted within the first two rounds, he is likely locked in as a +90th percentile prospect in my rookie model, placing him among a group of RBs that have broken out at a 91% rate in the NFL. In short, barring a drastic decline in production this season, I am all in on Taylor as my early pick to be next year’s rookie RB1.
Speaking of potential RB1s, Notre Dame’s Jeremiyah Love is currently trending as the first RB selected in most NFL mock drafts. This comes after a season in which he totaled over 1,300 scrimmage yards and 19 TDs, helping the Fighting Irish reach the national championship game this past season. However, when you account for team market share, Love’s production is far less impressive compared to a prospect like Darius Taylor. For one, Love was only marginally involved as a true freshman, playing behind Audric Estime for most of the season. He accounted for about 6% of their entire offense in 2023, ranking only in the 56th percentile with 0.57 Scrimmage Yards per Team Play. While he did take a significant jump as a Sophomore, his production was far from elite with a 22.5% weighted dominator rating. In addition, compared to all first-round prospects drafted since 2013, Love’s production would rank well below the 40th percentile. On a positive note, Love ranks near the top in EPA per Play (0.16), implying his consistent impact and efficiency when given the ball. If we further adjust his production and efficiency based on competition and Notre Dame’s strength of schedule, his holistic profile places him near the 90th percentile in my rookie model. So while there are some red flags in his production, Love still holds plenty of upside, especially if he can secure first-round capital in next year’s draft.
Makhi Hughes is a redshirt Junior for the Oregon Ducks, who spent his last three years with Tulane University. After sitting out his first season due to injury, Hughes has had a very accomplished career as the focal point for Tulane’s offense. He totaled over 1,400 scrimmage yards in each of his last two campaigns, accounting for over 25% of the team’s entire offensive production and averaging an impressive 1.69 Yards per Team Play in 28 games. He is also one of the toughest players to take down in the open field, totaling over 1,900 scrimmage yards after contact over the last two years (per PFF), behind only Ashton Jeanty and Omarion Hampton in that timespan. In short, Hughes stands out as one of the most productive RBs in next year’s draft. For context, he is currently one of only three prospects in the 2026 class averaging a positive experience-adjusted Yards per Team Play (+0.11). Assuming he can maintain this trajectory in his final season, Hughes should be one of the first RBs taken in next year’s draft, locking him in as a +80th percentile prospect in my rookie model.
Jadyn Ott is coming off a quiet campaign by his standards, totaling only 607 scrimmage yards and five TDs in 10 games. However, keep in mind that Ott suffered an ankle injury in their opening matchup last year, heavily impacting his efficiency for the remainder of the season. Before that, Ott dominated for Cal and was one of the most productive college RBs in the nation. To put his production into context, his 1.55 Scrimmage Yards per Team Play as a true freshman ranks in the 94th percentile among drafted RBs since 2013. His sophomore season is equally impressive, placing him in the 83rd percentile over the past decade. Fortunately, Ott has an opportunity to bounce back with Oklahoma, assuming he is fully recovered from his ankle injury. While the Sooners could distribute the ball across multiple RBs and ease him into a full workload, I still expect Ott to lead their backfield by the end of the season. If he can regain his form and produce as efficiently as he did in his first two campaigns, Ott should be locked in as a top-five RB in dynasty drafts next year.
Nick Singleton surprisingly returned for his fourth season at Penn State despite projecting to be a day two RB in the 2025 class. While his production has not been elite, Singleton has been one of the most consistent RBs since his freshman season. As you can see above, he has never had a season with a weighted dominator rating below 19%, operating as the centerpiece of Penn State’s offense. However, because of the heavy involvement of Kaytron Allen (who is also a potential day two pick in next year’s draft), Singleton has yet to exceed 2.00 Scrimmage Yards per Team Play in any season. While that is typically the threshold for an elite season, context matters as Penn State has consistently utilized an RB committee over the last three years, preventing Singleton from ranking higher in most market share metrics. On a positive note, Singleton has been by far the most dynamic player in their backfield, leading them in EPA per Play (0.11), Yards per Touch (6.4), and receiving yards market share (8.1%). As long as he can maintain his production this season, his versatility and efficiency should lead to elite draft capital in the 2026 draft. Assuming he is selected within the first round, Singleton could be one of only two RBs in the 2026 class to grade in the +90th percentile, placing him among some of the best RBs to enter the NFL.
Jonah Coleman, RB from Washington, has shown consistent improvement over the past three years, establishing himself as one of the nation’s top players at his position. After sharing carries in his freshman year, Coleman’s role expanded significantly during his time at Arizona and Washington. His junior season with the Huskies saw him achieve career highs across the board, averaging a 25% dominator rating and 1.47 yards per team play. For context, his 2024 performance would place him in the 59th percentile among drafted RBs since 2013. In other words, it was a productive season, but also far from elite. In addition, despite his 5’9”, 229-pound frame, Coleman is a surprisingly powerful and elusive rusher. According to PFF, his 4.6 yards after contact per attempt and 35% missed tackle rate rank in the top three among Power Four RBs over the last two seasons. So while there are some red flags in his analytical profile (primarily in his market share metrics), there are plenty of reasons to believe that Coleman could be a day-two pick in next year’s draft. For now, due to his lack of elite production, he currently only ranks as a 65th percentile prospect in my rookie model. That would place him firmly outside of the top five of the 2026 class, making him one of the riskier investments from a dynasty perspective.
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