Fantasy Football Dynasty Report for Week 18

Welcome back to another edition of the Dynasty Report!

Every week, this article will highlight the most impactful storylines from a dynasty perspective, as changes throughout the regular season can significantly impact a player’s value beyond this year. To give you a holistic view of the dynasty landscape, you can expect the following segments each week:

• Rookie Opportunity Dashboard: Overview of Rookie Performances in the NFL
• Dynasty Stock Report: Recap of the Risers & Fallers in the Dynasty Landscape
• Prospect Watch List: Production Profiles & Analysis for CFB Prospects

And if you are looking for an even deeper look into dynasty football, be sure to tune in every week to the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast with Borg, Betz, and one of the Ballers!

Rookie Opportunity Dashboard

To keep the dashboard concise, I will focus only on the most fantasy-relevant rookies at each position.

For reference:

• Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) is a metric closely tied to volume and usage. We want to target rookies that rank highly in this metric, as it could potentially signal future opportunity and fantasy success.
• Fantasy Points Over Expected or FPOE signifies efficiency relative to a player’s usage. FPOE is the variance between their actual production and expected fantasy value. This metric will generally fluctuate and regress to the mean (zero), which is why we isolate it from their baseline production (xFP) to determine which players we can rely on each week.
• Opportunity Share represents the percentage of targets and rush attempts a player accounts for on their team.

If you want me to include other metrics or have any questions on the data below, let me know on Bluesky @MarvinJE or Twitter @FF_MarvinE.

10 Rookie Stats and Observations from the Fantasy Season:

1. Despite a slower start to the year, Ashton Jeanty led all rookie RBs in Target Share (14.5%), rushing share (71.2%), and opportunity share (38.3%) throughout the fantasy season. His usage value of 13.0 Expected Fantasy Points also ranks within the top 15 among all rookie RBs since 2013.
2. While his season was cut short due to injury, Cam Skattebo was on his way to an RB1 campaign, ranking as the RB11 in half-PPR points in his eight active games. Assuming he returns fully healthy next year, Skattebo could be a sneaky dynasty trade target, clearly proving as a rookie that he can lead the Giants’ backfield. 
3. Omarion Hampton received at least 15 opportunities in all but one of his nine games this season. He also finished as an RB2 or better in six of nine matchups, despite splitting touches with Najee Harris and Kimani Vidal throughout the year. More importantly, after relying on the passing game to start the season. Jim Harbaugh’s offense reverted to a run-heavy scheme by the end of the year. In fact, the Chargers ranked in the bottom 10 in Pass Rate Over Expected (-4.7%) in the back-half of the season. Assuming they continue to rely on the running game like they did to close out the year, Hampton will hold RB1 upside in his second campaign.
4. While he did share a backfield with JK Dobbins to start the year, RJ Harvey emerged as a league-winner to close out the season. In his last five games, he finished as an RB1 four times, while ranking as the RB10 in fantasy points per game throughout the fantasy playoffs.
5. Even on limited opportunities, Kyle Monangai was a top 15 RB in EPA per Rush Attempt (0.03) this season. Keep in mind, considering the Bears could cut D’Andre Swift to save significant cap space ($7.5 million), Monangai could enter the 2026 season as the Bears’ RB1.
6. Tetairoa McMillan is set to become one of only three rookie WRs since 2013 to average over 25% of his team’s targets and 40% of their air yards. The other two receivers on this list are Malik Nabers and Chris Olave.
7. Even with the recent decline in production, Emeka Egbuka is still the leader in Expected Fantasy Points (11.4) or usage value among rookie WRs. Alongside McMillan, he is also one of only two rookies to average over 20% of his team’s targets and 30% of their air yards in 2025.
8. Even on a team with a desperate need for a WR1, Matthew Golden only commanded 11.2% of the team’s targets this season, ranking WR8 in Target Share among rookie WRs. Even from an efficiency standpoint, when given the opportunity, Golden was only the WR68 in Yards per Route Run (1.41). While he could still turn things around in the playoffs, his breakout season may need to wait until 2026, as Romeo Doubs is set to approach free agency next year.
9. Since 2013, we have only seen three rookie TEs finish the year commanding over 20% of their team’s targets: Brock Bowers, Sam LaPorta, and Evan Engram. There are currently two rookies from the 2025 class set to join that list – Harold Fannin Jr. and Tyler Warren.
10. It was a quiet season for rookie QBs. However, the one that clearly stands out is Jaxson Dart. Since taking over as the Giants’ signal caller in Week 4, Dart ranks as the QB11 in Usage Value (17.8), QB8 in Fantasy Points (20.1), and QB3 in Rushing Share (24%). From an efficiency perspective, Dart is only the QB16 in EPA per Play (0.13), which leaves some room for improvement. However, his elite rushing ability is what sets him apart as a potential fantasy QB1 going forward.  

Dynasty Stock Report

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Luther Burden III – Chicago Bears, WR – Stock Up

After once being considered a first-round prospect, it was a shock to see Luther Burden slip to the second round of the 2025 NFL Draft. Especially with the Bears also selecting Colston Loveland, Burden was entering a crowded offense that already included Rome Odunze and DJ Moore. Regardless, the talent was never an issue, considering Burden finished his career as the WR3 in his class in Experience Adjusted College Production and with one of the most accomplished Sophomore seasons (96th percentile) in recent history. And while he did play behind Moore, Odunze, and Olamide Zaccheaus for most of the season, Burden finally received his opportunity to shine in Week 17 against the 49ers:

• 23.1% Target Share
• 29.0% Air Yards Share
• 35% Targets per Route Run
• 12.5 Expected Fantasy Points
• +11.3 Fantasy Points Over Expected

While Odunze’s return could impact his production, his recent breakout should cement his value as one of the top receivers of this young offense. In fact, even though his routes and snaps have fluctuated, Burden leads all Bears WRs in Targets Per Route Run (25%) this season. As a result, Burden will be one of my favorite dynasty trade targets this offseason, as he could easily emerge as the WR1 for Caleb Williams. For now, I expect his role to continue to improve as the Bears aim for a deep playoff run this postseason.

Doug Engle/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Bhayshul Tuten – Jacksonville Jaguars, RB – Stock Down

After Jacksonville traded away Tank Bigsby, there was an expectation for Bhayshul Tuten to carve out a meaningful role in his rookie year. Instead, he was firmly entrenched as the RB2 behind Travis Etienne, accounting for only 10.7% of Jacksonville’s opportunities in his 14 games. For comparison, Etienne averaged a 30.3% opportunity share this season, clearly operating as the RB1 for the Jaguars. On a positive note, Tuten could receive an expanded role next season as Etienne is expected to test free agency. So even though his dynasty stock has been trending in the wrong direction, there could be a path to more opportunities heading into his second campaign.

Trevor Lawrence – Jacksonville Jaguars, QB – Stock Up

Trevor Lawrence has quietly enjoyed a career year after multiple disappointing seasons, following his breakout campaign in 2022. Through 17 weeks, Lawrence is the QB6 in Fantasy Points per game (19.7), which even includes several quiet performances to start the year. It was not until the second half of the season that Lawrence turned things around and was by far one of the most productive QBs in the league. Since Week 10, Lawrence has averaged:

• 22.7 Fantasy Points per Game (QB2)
• 9.5 Air Yards per Attempt (QB4)
• 0.22 EPA per Play (QB5)
• 53.5% Success Rate (QB4)

Despite the smaller sample size, it is clear that Liam Coen has had a positive impact on the entire Jacksonville team, which is now bound for a playoff run. And with Brian Thomas Jr, Jakobi Meyers, and Travis Hunter set to return next year, Lawrence’s success should continue in his second season within Coen’s system. As a result, he should be considered a top-15 dynasty QB with upside to move even higher if he can maintain his elite efficiency in 2026.

Tua Tagovailoa – Miami Dolphins, QB – Stock Down

On a less positive note, Tua Tagovailoa’s dynasty value has been trending in the wrong direction this season. He finished as a QB1 only twice this year, ranking outside of the top 25 in metrics such as EPA per Play (0.01), Success Rate (44.2%), and air yards per attempt (6.9). As a result, it was no shock to see him benched over the last few weeks, allowing Quinn Ewers to emerge as the QB1 for Miami. Long-term, this does create some uncertainty for his future as a viable fantasy QB, as Tagovailoa’s contract locks him in for at least another year in Miami. Considering his massive cap hit, unless they decide to trade him, the Dolphins may have no choice but to keep him for another year and find a cheap replacement through free agency. Regardless, Tagovailoa’s dynasty value is clearly in flux as he is no longer guaranteed to be a starter heading into 2026.

Prospect Watch List

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Heading into the off-season, Kenyon Sadiq is projected to be the consensus TE1 according to most mock drafts. At 6’3’ and 245 pounds, Sadiq has the frame and athletic ability to make an immediate impact at the next level. He has the speed and quickness to create separation in his routes, and the strength and tenacity to hold his own as a blocker. And with the ball in his hands, Sadiq has showcased a dynamic and explosive skill set, especially in the open field. As a result, he has the potential to be a three-down TE at the next level. The one red flag in his profile, however, is his production, accounting for only 10.8% of Oregon’s receiving yards and TDs over three seasons. Even in his breakout campaign in 2025, he finished with only a 16.1% Receiving Yards Market Share. To put that into context, his career experience-adjusted production only ranks in the 51st percentile among all drafted TEs since 2013. On a positive note, if he does get selected in the first round, we have seen plenty of prospects with poor production profiles still emerge as viable fantasy TEs at the next level, including Noah Fant, O.J. Howard, and Hayden Hurst. And while Hurst likely presents the lower end of outcomes, Sadiq profiles much closer to Fant and Howard, especially from an athletic perspective. With that in mind, my rookie model projects Sadiq as high as the 92nd percentile, likely ranking as the TE1 in the 2026 NFL Draft.

As we approach the 2026 NFL Draft, here is a list of the most productive college football TEs this season: