Fantasy Football Dynasty Report for Week 12
Welcome back to another edition of the Dynasty Report!
Every week, this article will highlight the most impactful storylines from a dynasty perspective, as changes throughout the regular season can significantly impact a player’s value beyond this year. To give you a holistic view of the dynasty landscape, you can expect the following segments each week:
- Rookie Opportunity Dashboard: Overview of Rookie Performances in the NFL
- Dynasty Stock Report: Recap of the Risers & Fallers in the Dynasty Landscape
- Prospect Watch List: Production Profiles & Analysis for CFB Prospects
And if you are looking for an even deeper look into dynasty football, be sure to tune in every week to the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast with Borg, Betz, and one of the Ballers!
Rookie Opportunity Dashboard
To keep the dashboard concise, I will focus only on the most fantasy-relevant rookies at each position.
For reference:
- Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) is a metric closely tied to volume and usage. We want to target rookies that rank highly in this metric, as it could potentially signal future opportunity and fantasy success.
- Fantasy Points Over Expected or FPOE signifies efficiency relative to a player’s usage. FPOE is the variance between their actual production and expected fantasy value. This metric will generally fluctuate and regress to the mean (zero), which is why we isolate it from their baseline production (xFP) to determine which players we can rely on each week.
- Opportunity Share represents the percentage of targets and rush attempts a player accounts for on their team.
If you want me to include other metrics or have any questions on the data below, let me know on Bluesky @MarvinJE or Twitter @FF_MarvinE.
Rookie Stats and Observations from Week 11:
- Following J.K. Dobbins‘ injury, RJ Harvey stepped into an increased role, registering his second-highest usage value (expected points) over his last seven games. Although his performance was inefficient, Harvey appears to be the Broncos’ leading RB going forward, highlighted by his 24.6% opportunity share in Week 11.
Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
- Quinshon Judkins has now finished with negative efficiency (Fantasy Points Over Expected) in 3 straight games. On a positive note, Judkins is averaging nearly 13.0 Expected Fantasy Points since their bye week, indicating that he continues to receive top 20 usage with the Browns.
- In Week 11, Bryce Young attempted 45 passes, marking the third-highest total of his career in a single game. To no surprise, Tetairoa McMillan accounted for a majority of those opportunities, finishing with a 27.3% target share and 41.8% air yards share against the Falcons. That led to a career-high 29.0 half-PPR points and +12.3 Fantasy Points Over Expected for McMillan.
- Pat Bryant’s usage has steadily improved every week this season. And in Week 11, he set a career-high 16.7% target share on a 64% route participation. While he remains the WR3 behind Troy Franklin and Courtland Sutton, it is still encouraging to see Bryant carve out a meaningful role to close out the season.
- Luther Burden set a career high in route participation (61%) and target share (17.8%) in Week 11, while also leading the Bears WRs in Targets per Route Run at 23%. Even though he remains the WR3 on their depth chart, it may only be a matter of time until he breaks out for Chicago.
- Despite a disappointing fantasy output for Oronde Gadsden and Harold Fannin, both receivers remain key parts of their teams’ passing games. They each saw significant usage, accounting for over 20% of their respective teams’ targets and air yards.
- Without Jaxson Dart, the 2025 QB class continues to disappoint, as Cam Ward was the most productive rookie at only 13.1 fantasy points in Week 11. For context, not a single rookie QB finished within the top 15 in EPA per Play this past week.
Dynasty Stock Report
TreVeyon Henderson – New England Patriots, RB – Stock Up
Just a couple of weeks ago, TreVeyon Henderson’s ADP was on the decline as the Patriots were adamant on keeping Rhamondre Stevenson in their rotation. However, the talent was never in doubt for Henderson as we continued to see flashes of the player who dominated college football for multiple seasons. With the recent injuries to their RBs, Henderson was finally allowed to lead their backfield, which has led to a significant improvement in his usage and production. Since Week 9, Henderson is averaging:
- 33.3% Opportunity Share
- 13.3% Target Share
- 22.7 half-PPR Points
- 14.2 Expected Fantasy Points
For context, his efficiency of +8.5 Fantasy Points Over Expected places him within the top-three since Week 9, just slightly behind Jonathan Taylor. And considering his impact in recent weeks, it would be surprising if he lost the RB1 role to Stevenson when he returns. Regardless, Henderson is the perfect example of why we need to remain patient with prospects. Assuming he maintains his recent production to close out the season, Henderson should be ranked as a top 10 dynasty RB by the end of the year.
D.J. Moore – Chicago Bears, WR – Stock Down
With the emergence of Rome Odunze and the additions of Luther Burden and Colston Loveland, D.J. Moore’s production has taken a significant hit this season. Through 11 weeks, Moore has been a top-24 WR only once, as the Bears continue to spread the ball amongst multiple receivers. Even if we look at his target shares, the results are just as bleak. In fact, Moore has failed to exceed a 20% target share in all but two games this year. And in their most recent matchup against Minnesota, he was even out-targed by Burden, who continues to push for an expanded role. From a dynasty perspective, Moore is on the books with Chicago for another year, holding a dead cap of $27 million for the 2026 season. So, unless the Bears decide to trade him, his dynasty value will continue to decline as the Bears’ WR2 (at best) going forward.
Jaxson Dart – New York Giants, QB – Stock Up
Halfway through the season, Jaxson Dart is shaping up to be the most valuable QB in the 2025 class. Since taking over the QB1 role for the Giants, Dart has been a top 10 fantasy option in five of seven games. That even includes a game in which he left early due to a concussion. And over his last five games, Dart has been one of the most productive fantasy QBs:
- QB10 in Expected Fantasy Points (18.3)
- QB1 in Fantasy Points Over Expected (+6.6)
- QB4 in Rushing Share (26.6%)
- QB5 in EPA per Play (0.29)
Keep in mind that the Giants are dealing with multiple injuries to their offense, including to Malik Nabers and Cam Skattebo. If both return healthy next season, and the Giants continue to bolster their offense, Dart has the upside to be a top-five fantasy QB in his second season. And while I would not consider him an elite dynasty QB just yet, that is well within his range of outcomes in the near future.
Kyler Murray – Arizona Cardinals, QB – Stock Down
Once a top-five dynasty QB1, Kyler Murray’s fantasy value has sharply fallen over the past year, as he’s on track to finish outside the top 20 in fantasy scoring. Additionally, his efficiency metrics have been disappointing, currently ranking outside the top 20 in metrics such as Completion Percentage Over Expected (-0.6) and EPA success rate (44.8%). While his foot injury might have contributed to his struggles this season, it doesn’t change the fact that the Cardinals could miss the playoffs for a fourth straight year. Consequently, some speculate that Murray might be on his way out of Arizona, as the team could take a different direction. In fact, the Las Vegas Raiders and the New York Jets are now the favorites to land Murray in 2026. With plenty of uncertainty about his future, Murray’s dynasty value will stay in flux as the season concludes.
Prospect Watch List
It has been a disappointing season so far for Darius Taylor, who has dealt with multiple injuries. In Week 2, he suffered a hamstring injury that forced him to miss several games. Most recently, against Iowa, he left in the first quarter with an undisclosed injury, which caused him to miss additional games. As a result, his production and efficiency are all at career lows. However, despite all the injuries this year, we’ve seen flashes of the player who dominated for Minnesota over the past two years. In Week 1 against Buffalo, Taylor totaled over 170 scrimmage yards, accounting for nearly 40% of Minnesota’s total yards. And in his two games before his most recent injury, he averaged 24 touches and 131.5 scrimmage yards, leading Minnesota to wins over Purdue and Nebraska. In other words, when healthy, Taylor is still the same RB who posted a 99.9th percentile freshman season and gained over 1,300 scrimmage yards as a sophomore. In short, Taylor still projects as a potential top-three RB in the 2026 class despite an injury-riddled season, with the upside to rank as high as a +90th percentile prospect in my rookie model.
As we approach the 2026 NFL Draft, here is a list of the most productive college football RBs this season:
