Dynasty Startup Rankings: Players to Target & Nervous Names
On the most recent Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast, Betz, Jason and myself discussed a number of dynasty startup rankings topics including the hardest players to rank and guys we’re quietly nervous about.
With the landing spots of rookies assessed after the NFL Draft, we can now see at the landscape of dynasty leagues a bit more clearly. The startup rankings are filterable through the Ballers consensus ranks along with 2QB/SuperFlex formats.
Editor’s Note: For an in-depth look at startup philosophy, check out Andy, Mike, and Jason’s exclusive startup rankings found only in the Dynasty Pass, part of the UDK+ for 2024.
Hard Players to Rank
Which players do you feel stuck trying to figure out their value beyond 2024?
Borg– David Montgomery (26.9 yrs old)
Does he go the way of James Conner? Or Damien Harris? 90% of Montgomery’s fantasy points came via the ground last year thanks to his elite role inside the red zone. He had the 5th most red zone touches and converted 19 of his attempts inside the five yard line to nine rushing TDs. Here is a list of recent top-15 RBs with 90% of their fantasy points via rushing:
All of these RBs had major fallouts the year after thanks to their TD reliance and lack of pass-catching work. That is the biggest concern for Montgomery given Jahmyr Gibbs‘ presence and Monty’s age climbing. Could he have one more year of top-20 production? Yes. Our advice was to hold until your league’s trade deadline and then be willing to part looking for desperate trade partners able to pay a future 1st round asking price.
Betz– Javonte Williams (24.0 yrs old)
Javonte was a highly, highly coveted RB prospect coming out of UNC. In startups, he was seen a top-5 RB and near untouchable asset. He had a massive spike in value entering Year 2 then a multi-ligament knee injury in 2022. He had a predictably down year in 2023 averaging 3.6 yards per carry, 3.8 yards per touch, just 3 rushing TDs. Sean Payton still loaded him up with 275 opportunities despite inefficiency and injury. Now entering a contract year with a rookie QB and a team that is not projected to do well he seems like he’s in no man’s land. However, coming off his injury Betz’s point: are we now double counting the injury?
Jason– Nico Collins (25.1 yrs old)
It was a wild year for Collins who was going as the WR65(!) in startup drafts a year ago!
He’s entering his final year of his rookie contract. After posting one of the best YPRR seasons in two decades, he is set up for an extension with Houston or a massive payday elsewhere thanks to C.J. Stroud! Ranking him in linear rankings is so hard because his range of outcomes is vast. Jason shared that he has Collins projected for the 3rd most targets among the Texans WRs but the most fantasy points in 2024.
Player You Find Yourself Higher than Consensus
Dynasty is all about perceived value. Name a player dynasty managers might be undervaluing right now.
Borg– George Pickens (23.0 yrs old)
Pickens is entering Year 3 in the NFL two months younger than Xavier Legette, if you want a good laugh. I wrote up Pickens in the article Dynasty WR Thresholds That Matter highlighting his improvement against zone coverage and lack of competition for targets being a major reason I’m bullish. He still is tracking as someone who can provide a spike week (or year) but the new offensive system with Arthur Smith does provide some worries. Pickens ran just 96 routes with two or fewer WRs on the field but did post an impressive 42% air-yard share and 3.32 YPRR in those sets. It might be frustrating for fantasy with the Russell Wilson/Justin Fields combo but Pickens is trending towards getting a second contract in the NFL and a multi-year deal. There’s no reason he shouldn’t see 24+ percent of the team’s targets.
Betz– Christian Kirk (27.4 yrs old)
Kirk is the target earner in this WR room. His TPRR numbers over the last two years (19.8%, 21.5%) dwarf his incoming competition. Neither rookie Brian Thomas Jr. (17.7%, 18.2%) or free agent signee Gabe Davis (15.9%, 14.1%) have been target earners in that span. Kirk was the WR11 in 2022 and the WR23 last season prior to injury. He’s a non-sexy trade target at this stage in his career but that is what makes him such a great person to acquire. Without Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones, Jacksonville vacates the 5th highest target share (40%) and 2nd highest air yards share in the NFL.
Jason– Kyler Murray (26.8 yrs old)
After signing a massive 5-year, $235 million extension with $160 million guaranteed before the 2022 season, Kyler looks look a solid buy-low right now in dynasty. Ranked Jason’s QB5 in startups, we forget how consistent he’s been in fantasy. Kyler was the QB9 in fantasy points per game coming off a major injury as a solid contributor on an offense that lacked any elite pass-catchers besides Trey McBride. Add in No. 4 overall pick Marvin Harrison Jr. and you can outline the makings of an elite fantasy season albeit at a cheaper draft price than other QBs. Say what you want about Kyler, but when he is on an NFL field as the starter, he’s averaging 20.3 fantasy points per game and 38 rushing yards.
“Stud” You Are Quietly Nervous About in Dynasty
Name a player you have been mulling to yourself in the shadows that could drop in value a year from now.
Borg– Tyreek Hill (30.2 yrs old)
I’m not a Tyreek Hill manager anywhere so this could just be nerves. He’s 30 years old (333.41 in cheetah years) with some question marks at this point in his career. While he has two more years under contract and stated that “I want to stay in Miami forever”, things change faster than you realize in the NFL year-to-year. Is he immune because of his “speed”/playing style? Comparing these other age 30 WRs, it seemed like it was better to be a year early and get a haul (if you are not contending) than waiting until the bottom fell out.
Betz– Josh Jacobs (26.2 yrs old)
There are a number of factors which should scare off dynasty managers from Jacobs. He’s entering Year 6 in the NFL, a point of major decline for running backs according to our Dynasty Lifecycles series. His efficiency metrics hit Ezekiel Elliott levels last year (that’s not good in case you didn’t get to meet the 2023 version of Zeke).
Ezekiel Elliott vs. Josh Jacobs in the year 2023:
Yards per carry:
Zeke (3.5), Jacobs (3.5)Yards after contact per carry:
Zeke (2.5), Jacobs (2.4)Missed tackles forced per carry:
Zeke (0.13), Jacobs (0.12)Explosive runs per carry:
Zeke (4.3%), Jacobs (3.9%)— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) May 4, 2024
His contract also is a mirage as the language makes this a complete question mark beyond 2024. All of those factors should terrify you knowing the cliff could come soon for a RB who touched the ball 1500+ times already in his career.
Jason– De’Von Achane (22.5 yrs old)
The efficiency numbers are off-the-charts and not repeatable. Right? He ranked 2nd among all RBs in yards after contact per attempt and
led all NFL RBs in yards per touch (7.7) while seemingly hitting a 40+ yard score every healthy week. However, he seems like a streaky player to count on as your team’s RB1 and the contract extension of Raheem Mostert plus the addition of speedster Jaylen Wright certainly adds more risk.
Cheap, Ideal QB2 in SuperFlex
While SuperFlex QBs can be tough to trade for, who are some undervalued and thus easier to acquire?
Borg– Bryce Young (22.8 yrs old)
I’ve harped on Young’s performance all off-season but he might be a bit undervalued with too much overcorrection. His value took a massive hit after last year which is a rare thing to see the QB1 in SuperFlex leagues fall this far this fast. If you have Young on your roster, he’s a hold in hopes things turn around and you have a stabilized QB2. Things can only go up from here… right? New head coach Dave Canales was a miracle worker with Geno Smith in Seattle and Baker Mayfield last year in Tampa Bay. The team invested heavily in the offensive line, brought in dependable Diontae Johnson, and took two offensive skill position players in the draft to outfit Young with something way better than the ragtag crew led by Adam Thielen last year. Are we still nervous? You bet! Very few QBs return from this poor of a debut but you can certainly see a path where Young rebounds to QB15 territory if things break right.
Betz– Jared Goff (29.5 yrs old)
The QB10 & QB7 last two seasons in Detroit seems to be beloved by Lions fans and management. An extension is coming soon so getting out ahead of this before the headline making money is wise. There is a ton of continuity in Detroit with Amon-Ra St. Brown locked up, Jameson Williams finally healthy and part of the game plan, Sam LaPorta doing historic things, one of the best offensive lines in football and one of the best pass-catching RBs. It is a formula for success and a high floor for Goff following a Kirk Cousins, perennial top-10 QB career path.
Eakin Howard/Getty Images
Jason– Brock Purdy (24.4 yrs old)
He had the MVP in his hands (-250 heading into Week 16) averaging 23.3 fppg and 2.8 passing TDs in the six weeks leading up to the Baltimore Game. Regardless of that debacle, he finished 3rd in passing TDs and fantasy points per dropback and produced nine games of 20+ fantasy points, one more than Dak Prescott. He should be seen as a top-10 dynasty QB but you don’t have to pay that price. The weapons in San Francisco and Kyle Shanahan’s schemes should keep this Cinderella from turning into a pumpkin.
Cheap RB To Trade For
Dynasty RBs are the worst. You desperately need them and yet no one wants to trade them. When you do have a serviceable one on your roster, chances are their value is poof in a year. Who are some cheap RBs worth acquiring right now?
Borg– Kendre Miller (21.9 yrs old)
He’s still super young and if you include him in this year’s rookie class, he could easily be the RB3 right behind Trey Benson, who is one month younger. Miller has the NFL body and production profile to make some noise in Year 2. Yes, Alvin Kamara is there but his efficiency numbers are in a nosedive for three straight years. Trading for Miller now is a prudent move for managers thinking he has a % chance of overtaking the Saints backfield either in 2024 or 2025.
RB Kendre Miller saw 14 opps in Week 18 vs ATL.
He doesn't turn 22 for another 37 days. And if it helps your brain, include him in this year's rookie RB class after he missed 9 games last year. pic.twitter.com/oaWE0kSnfp
— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) May 5, 2024
Betz– Jerome Ford (24.6 yrs old)
The RB17 last year was a steady force in fantasy as a top-24 RB eleven times! He averaged 16.3 opportunities per game and also was more involved in the passing game than you might realize:
Nick Chubb‘s injury is weirdly working against Ford’s value as positive and “ahead of schedule” reports will likely keep Ford’s asking price quite low. He still has two more years on his deal and it is possible he has a two year run as a FLEX-worthy RB. D’Onta Foreman is also in the mix for Cleveland but he has just $330K in guarantees.
Jason– Devin Singletary (26.7 yrs old)
“Singlecarry” morphed into the Texans’ workhorse back averaged 19.6 opportunities per game from Week 9 on making Houston’s one-year $3 million investment look like a steal and Dameon Pierce an afterthought. He leaves one of the best young offenses in the NFL and lands in New York with $9.5 million guaranteed in hand and an offensive line that is… well, downright offensive. Regardless, finding someone with this workload and a lack of competition is hard in the dynasty streets. Consider a packaged deal with Singletary being an ancillary rather than primary target.
Cheap, Young TE to Trade For
Tight-Ends take a while to develop as our Dynasty Lifecycle of Tight-Ends article details. Who are some cheap young TEs you could acquire right now, perhaps valued lower than they should be?
Borg– Greg Dulcich (24.1 yrs old)
Hamstrings are optional. With just 2 games played last year, you probably forgot Greg D existed in 2023. Welp, the Broncos decided to not address the position in the NFL Draft (despite strong Brock Bowers vibes) and instead are rolling with blocking TE Adam Trautman and Greg Dulcich aka the Mustache ManiYAC. The part of Dulcich’s profile which intrigued me was both his youth and athleticism coming out of the draft. At 2.43 yards per team pass attempt, he was in an elite tier among TE prospects, better than even Kyle Pitts. According to Rich Hribar, yards per team pass attempt is one of the stickiest rate stats for tight ends. It is easier to compare players across schools and systems. He can create after the catch on an offense desperately needing playmakers. Is it a gamble? Sure. Is he dirt cheap right now? You bet.
Betz– Pat Freiermuth (25.5 yrs old)
The Muth(!) was the TE8 just two years ago but finished 63/732/2 last year appearing in just 12 games last year due to hamstring injury. The WR depth chart around him is doo doo with Diontae Johnson out the door and a bunch of vagabonds behind George Pickens and Roman Wilson competing for a roster spot. New OC Arthur Smith has a special place in his heart for TEs as Atlanta ranked #1 in TE target share. TE breakouts usually happen on the 2nd contract (David Njoku, TJ Hockenson, Travis Kelce) so trading for the Muth on the cheap now knowing he still has tons of NFL life left makes sense.
Jason– Jake Ferguson (25.2 yrs old)
Ferguson broke out in his sophomore season (102 targets for 71/761/5) finishing as the TE8 on a high-powered Cowboys offense. He led ALL TEs in Red Zone Targets (25) but the five TDs left something to be desired. TEs over the last 5 years averaged a TD every 3.4 red zone targets making Turd Ferg’s TD expectation more like 7.34 TDs. For reference, all 5 of his TDs came in the red zone. He was 2nd on the Cowboys in total targets and with no significant pass-catchers added this off-season, it shouldn’t surprise you if Ferguson repeats that feat again and instead hits the 7+ TD range.