NFC Win Totals: Over & Unders To Consider for 2022 (Fantasy Football)
On the most recent Fantasy Footballers DFS podcast, Kyle and I walked through the entire NFC looking for values on DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook for win totals and other NFL futures markets.
For those who need a visual, here are all 16 teams broken down as well as our preferred plays on these teams as it stands in May. We covered the AFC on this episode of the podcast and it can also be found in article form here.
Dallas Cowboys – The Cowboys lost a lot of important pieces this off-season including edge pass rusher Randy Gregory and two starting offensive linemen in addition to star WR Amari Cooper. They’re also a team who capitalized a lot on turnovers last year, leading the NFL with a +14 turnover differential AND leading the league in points scored off turnovers. Generally, we know turnovers and defensive performance isn’t sticky year over year, so we’re looking to fade the Cowboys defense this season. In addition, this team only won three games a year ago against playoff teams and two of those wins came against the Eagles who barely got in. That said, Dak is still a top 10 real life NFL QB and the Cowboys have a major advantage on their schedule. They play six games this year against teams coming off a short week, two more than any other team in the league. We’re staying away from their 10 win total on DK but don’t mind taking the under on FanDuel at 10.5.
Philadelphia Eagles – The Eagles have had one of the best off-seasons of any team in football, and the market is certainly adjusting to those moves. After trading for A.J. Brown during the NFL Draft and signing James Bradberry, the public is all over this team, which makes them a scary investment at this point. We got value on this team when they were +275 to win the NFC East a few weeks ago, but now they’re +190 and their win total has ballooned from 8.5 to 9.5. If you’re holding an O8.5 win ticket, you should feel excited, but now that the market has shifted so drastically, we’re staying away from their win totals and their futures markets. If you really want to buy into the Eagles hype however, we think sprinkling a small wager on Jalen Hurts to win MVP at +4000 on Caesar’s is interesting.
Washington Commanders – This team has a pretty safe floor thanks to a soft schedule. The NFC East plays the AFC South this year, and Washington gets the fortune of also playing against the Falcons, Bears and Lions. In addition, a lot of their most difficult games are being played at home this season. Kyle bet this line (and we talked about it on a previous show) when it was 7.5, but now that this has moved to 8 wins, we’re largely staying away from this one, but we wouldn’t fault anyone who wanted to talk themselves into fading Carson Wentz.
New York Giants – Call us crazy, but the Giants to win the NFC East at +900 is something we’re in on. I know, I know. This team ran a QB sneak at their own 5-yard line on 3rd down last year just to be able to punt on 4th down, but that was with the shall we say less than stellar combination of Jason Garrett and Joe Judge. Now, Brian Daboll is in town and there’s actually a plan in the front office. Given the weaknesses to all of the teams mentioned above, we think there’s paths to this team having some success in 2022 if we can get replacement level play out of Daniel Jones (yes, maybe that’s asking a lot). We’re also in on the over on their win total. New York has the easiest strength of schedule according to Warren Sharp, which includes 4th place games against the Panthers and the Seahawks.
Green Bay Packers – If you can find an U11 out there in the win totals market, we’re in. Listen, Aaron Rodgers can pull off something crazy and get this wins to 12 or 13 wins, but this depth chart is…not great, bob. Sammy Watkins is already on the roster bubble, Randall Cobb is 32 years old, Allen Lazard is fine for what he is, and Christian Watson is a rookie who played four seasons in the FCS. Davante Adams accounted for over 30% of this team’s receiving yards and TD last season, and that loss could prove to be massive for this team. In addition, the Packers have the worst rest disadvantage in the NFL according to Warren Sharp. All that said, we absolutely love Aaron Jones for fantasy thanks to his insane splits without Davante Adams and have already placed a wager on him to win offensive player of the year at +10000, which is laughable. As of our podcast recording, Jones has the same odds to win this award as superstars Randall Cobb, Odell Beckham (who is currently unemployed & recovering from an ACL surgery), Marcus Mariota, Kadarius Toney, Cedrick Wilson and Curtis Samuel. What?
Minnesota Vikings – As a correlated fade of the Packers this year, we’re in on the Vikings to win the division at +300 on DraftKings and +340 on FanDuel. At +275, it’s starting to get a little thin, but it’s definitely still in play. The Vikings should see a ton of positive regression when it comes to winning close games this season. In their first 15 games, they played in 14 one-score games, which if you’re a Vikings fan, probably sent your blood pressure readings through the roof last fall! To speak to how insane that stat is, it ties the all-time record for one-possession games in a season.
Chicago Bears – We don’t want to be over dramatic here but this could be an absolute train wreck. Personally, this is my biggest stance of the season with an under on this team’s win total. Kyle and I both bet it at U7 wins and still think the U6.5 is very much in play. According to Vegas look ahead lines, Chicago is only favored in two games all year…yikes. We like Justin Fields and his upside for fantasy, but how is this team putting up points behind a bad offensive line with playmakers that include Velus Jones Jr. and Byron Pringle?
Detroit Lions – Kyle is a bit more into fading this team with the knowledge that the public seems to be backing the fighting Dan Campbells. I personally took this team to win the division at +1100 a couple of weeks ago as a long shot. My rationale here is that this team was 4th best in the NFL a year ago against the spread and that included games where T.J. Hockenson, Jared Goff and D’Andre Swift were out of the lineup. With a young nucleus of good skill players, if Jared Goff can provide average to above average QB play, the Lions could surprise some people. As described above, the Bears are likely to be awful and the Vikings have their flaws. If we’re fading the Packers, it probably makes sense to correlate with a small wager on this fun up and coming Lions team. That said, their defense looks atrocious and that’s an obvious concern. Last year they ranked 31st in points allowed and 30th in Football Outsiders Weighted DVOA.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – There isn’t much value on this team this season given they’re almost guaranteed to win their division so long as Tom Brady stays healthy. Given that you have to lay -300, we’re staying away from anything that involves their division odds. That said, given how weak the entire NFC conference is, we don’t hate buying into this team in the futures market, which could include the Bucs winning the NFC at +330, winning the Super Bowl at +700, or Tom Brady in the MVP market.
New Orleans Saints – We don’t show much of an edge on the Saints win total, but we definitely like “Yes” to make the playoffs at +150. We talked about this on a podcast before the NFL Draft when the same wager was +160. In a weak NFC, 9 wins is likely to get a wild card spot and with the Bucs very likely to take home the division crown, that puts the Saints in play in the wild card race. A year ago, no team dealt with more injuries to their offensive line than the Saints. New Orleans led the NFL in number of starting offensive line combinations in 2021, and while the loss of Terron Armstead hurts, the team did draft his replacement Trevor Penning in Round 1 of the NFL Draft. This team also goes from one of the worst WR rooms in the league last year to a 3WR set of Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry and Chris Olave. As long as we get league average QB play from Jameis Winston, this team should be playing post-season football.
Carolina Panthers – Let’s be real – This is going to be bad. As Kyle so eloquently stated on the DFS Podcast, “not even Sam Darnold‘s mom believes in him anymore.” Admittedly, he might not be wrong. In all seriousness, if this coaching staff wants to keep their job, they absolutely cannot start Sam Darnold all season. A year ago, among 32 QBs who logged 250 drop backs, Darnold ranked 29th in yards per attempt and 24th in adjusted completion percentage with a riveting 9 to 13 TD-to-INT ratio. That means they’re likely to turn to 3rd rounder, Matt Corral, for multiple starts this season. Bet the under.
Atlanta Falcons – This line opened at 5.5 and was immediately bet down to 5.0. While it might feel scary to take the under on a win total that low, let us not forget that Marcus Mariota is this team’s starting QB. We’ve identified seven total winnable games on their schedule. Big time yikes!
Los Angeles Rams – The Super Bowl champs are sort of in no man’s land. Their roster is loaded, and they’re clearly one of the best teams in the NFC. Their win total line feels right, and betting them to win the conference or repeat as Super Bowl champs feels like a silly bet given how difficult it is to repeat in this league. We’re staying away from the Rams in the betting markets.
San Francisco 49ers – The Niners are a really difficult team to evaluate given the uncertainty at QB and as a result, we’re staying away from them in the betting market. Kyle’s projections show a slight under on 10 wins but at 9.5, it’s definitely a no bet for us.
Arizona Cardinals – Kyle claimed on the show that taking the under 9.5 wins on FanDuel is his biggest stance of the off-season. Arizona started off hot a year ago but largely proved to be…shall we say fraudulent?…down the stretch. This team now faces a 2nd place schedule which includes an absolutely gauntlet at home against the likes of the Chiefs, Chargers, Bucs, Rams, Patriots, 49ers, Saints and Eagles. With DeAndre Hopkins suspended six games and this team relying on the corpses of A.J. Green and Zach Ertz as playmakers, we have no problem fading the Cardinals and Kliff Kingsbury.
Seattle Seahawks – We’re going to find out a lot about Seattle and their coaching staff in 2022 as they begin life after Russell Wilson. Pete Carrol seems set on establishing the run on early downs despite this being an extremely inefficient way to run an offense, relying on Russell Wilson to save them on 3rd down over and over again. Everyone and their momma knows the downgrade from Russell Wilson to either Drew Lock or Geno Smith is massive, and as a result, this team’s win total quickly got bet down from 6 to 5.5. At 5.5 this is getting a little thin as they do have some winnable games thanks to a 4th place schedule.