AFC Win Totals: Over & Unders To Consider for 2022 (Fantasy Football)
For those who need a visual, here are all 16 teams broken down as well as our preferred plays on these teams in early May. This Friday we’ll tackle the NFC.
Buffalo Bills– The public loves them and the sportsbook adore them as the Super Bowl favorite. The juice on the over (-130) feels terrifying knowing how many things can go wrong in a season. However, these Bills went 11-6 last season and underachieved with a win expectation of 13.1! Their schedule is one of the tougher ones in the league including an overall gauntlet on the road and tough 1st place games against TEN, @ KC, and @ LAR. I’m going to wait on Buffalo because there isn’t a ton of value on their current lines but as the season progresses you likely will get better values for the AFC and Super Bowl futures.
Miami Dolphins– There is a lot of off-season hype with the Dolphins after trading for Tyreek Hill, getting a new offensive-minded head coach, and making a big splash in free agency with LT Terron Armstead. When we look at their schedule, my initial schedule-adjusted projections (which came out before these win totals were posted) had the Dolphins at 8.5 wins. As Betz discussed on the DFS Podcast, when a projection matches with what Sportsbooks are putting out, we temper our thoughts about a team knowing there are multiple points to failure. We either don’t play over/under lines like this or we take the under. Their “3rd place” schedule includes tough road games with the Chargers and 49ers as well as match-ups with the NFC & AFC North. The excitement surrounding the Dolphins is warranted but our forecasts, once they approach the schedule, start to look a bit more mediocre
New England Patriots– The Patriots are very close to the Dolphins across the board in almost every market. However, their floor might be higher but what is the ceiling for this team? 10-11 wins? It’s hard to figure out what the Patriots are in a tough AFC and after an NFL Draft that was mostly made fun of for their unorthodox ways. I’m staying away from New England.
New York Jets– On the opposite end of the spectrum, the Jets were the darling of the NFL Draft with three first-round picks that the consensus adores. But does it help them in the win column? The line is pretty efficient at 5.5 with a tough road schedule despite being a 4th place team. The over is clearly the most attractive but it’s tough to buy into that juice (-145) with what we saw from Zach Wilson a year ago.
The Jets have been the most popular “Over” bet at @CaesarsSports. Their win total of 5.5 is getting a lot of action. It is the most popular bet by both tickets and dollars wagered at Caesars. The Jets have 43 percent more tickets on their Over than the next closest team.
— Brian Costello (@BrianCoz) May 12, 2022
Cincinnati Bengals– The Bengals came out of nowhere last year making it all the way to the Super Bowl. They blew their DK Sportsbook win total (6.5) out of the water. It’s surprising to see how tempered the books were with this exciting young team. The line is solid and in fact, they are 2nd in their own division. It’s hard to expect the same type of postseason magic so fading the AFC and Super Bowl odds feels easy. On FanDuel, I don’t mind the over but this feels like a stay-away spot or a push at the end of the day.
Cleveland Browns– You can see the giant question marks across the board for the Browns all surrounding Deshaun Watson‘s impending (?) suspension. Yes, we don’t know how long or if he will be suspended. But the fact DK Sportsbook puts them as the divisional favorite is somewhat telling and when I worked through their difficult schedule, I put them at 10 wins. That feels like a solid line given where the Bengals are. If Watson is suspended, they’ll likely land around the 7.5 mark. Regardless, people blindly betting any Browns futures are likely lighting their money on fire.
Pittsburgh Steelers– The Steelers are one of the harder teams to project. Their win total (7.5) is low enough where an over is in play. However, with a rookie QB and major longshot odds (+850) to win a tough division, there is a tough road ahead. Remember this team was a playoff squad with the corpse of Ben Roethlisberger last year. At the end of the day, there are too many question marks along with a 2nd place schedule that isn’t as forgiving to be confident here.
Baltimore Ravens– “Our Ravens”, as we’ve been calling them since our April 1st DFS episode, are one of the best values on the board this year for futures markets. At +225 to win the AFC North, you are getting them at a great value considering the fact DK considers them a playoff team. While there is some juice to lay (-130) for the over, the Ravens have a 4th place schedule, a hopefully healthy core of offensive talent led by Lamar Jackson, and arguably one of the smartest organizations in the NFL Betz wrote an entire article Why the Baltimore Ravens are Primed for a Bounce Back in 2022 if you need more convincing.
Tennessee Titans– Coming off a gutsy 12-win season where they somehow ended up with the No. 1 seed in the AFC, you realize the Titans and Mike Vrabel are a classy group. They have a tough road in 2022 including a 1st place schedule including CIN, BUF & GB. On top of drawing the AFC West this year and losing A.J. Brown, I’m back on fading the Titans this year. Their “No to make the playoffs” at -110 is the best value in my opinion.
Indianapolis Colts– Betz and I used the Colts are our example on the DFS Podcast a couple of weeks ago. I wrote about their prospects in Forecasting the NFL & Win Totals Strategy recently if you want a further extensive look at this team. +100 to win the AFC South looks like the best value bet on the board.
Jacksonville Jaguars– The win total was bet down to six which is an enticing number. The biggest question is how much is NOT having Urban Meyer worth? In a division that is extremely winnable, +650 to win the division isn’t the worst longshot bet that you can take. Betz says he doesn’t mind over six wins despite the juice.
Houston Texans– 3.5 wins… can they get there? On the podcast, we walked through the Texans’ 2022 schedule searching for four wins. Even with the -175 juice on FanDuel, four wins in a 17-game season is downright disrespectful. It’s a 63 percent implied probability for the over and Betz likes it more in line with 70 percent.
Kansas City Chiefs– Betting against the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes is not recommended for the long-term health of your heart. The Chiefs pushed last year with 12 wins and Andy Reid has a crazy history of hitting the over with Kansas City.
— CBS Sports HQ (@CBSSportsHQ) May 2, 2021
However, there are multiple paths to the under as the line was hammered down from 12 to 11.5 early. The Chiefs have the hardest strength of schedule and a gauntlet to start the season with their first eight games coming against teams with winning records in 2021. This is a stay away and also an opportunity to invest as their conference and Super Bowl odds should be more enticing as the season progresses.
Denver Broncos– I hopped on the Broncos to win the AFC West at +260. It’s shocking their odds are behind the Chargers in every market as Russell Wilson is worth 2-2.5 wins by himself. They have a 4th place schedule and my early schedule adjusted projections had them at a healthy 10.75 wins, the most in this division. Take the value on the divisional odds or the over (10) on DK Sportsbook.
Well let’s see what you think. Who wins the AFC West
— Andy Holloway (@andyholloway) March 26, 2022
Taking the over is gut-wrenching for a team that perennially falls short of massive expectations. The long shot bets are still worth pursuing but the win total is about right. They are easily one of the most talented teams in the NFL and one we’ll be discussing almost every week in DFS.
Las Vegas Raiders– Last year the Raiders were among the most lucky teams in the NFL going 10-7 despite a win expectation of 6.9. It killed my bankroll as I took the under 7.5 wins. Regardless, the under for the Raiders at 8.5 makes a ton of sense in the NFL’s toughest division.