DFS Sleepers & Blind Spots for Week 13

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Week 13 NFL DFS Sleepers

In case you’re new to this/me, this sleeper piece aims for contrarian/GPP players, but more importantly, it focuses on matchups to exploit using APA (Adjusted Points Allowed). APA is a metric that I created years ago, adjusting for the strength of opponent, etc. Obviously, facing Patrick Mahomes every game would inflate the points allowed versus seeing Sam Darnold under center. APA does a quality job at evening out the strength of opponents to give you a true Fantasy points allowed average (+/- compared to positional league average).

As always, catch me @allinkid and keep reading to see my FanDuel DFS sleepers for Week 10.

Quarterback APA

RANK TEAM OPP APA +/- RANK TEAM OPP APA +/-
1 LV NYJ 24.3 +6.1 16 NYJ LV 18.0 -0.2
2 MIN JAX 23.9 +5.8 17 DAL BAL 17.5 -0.6
3 CLE TEN 23.8 +5.7 18 GB PHI 17.4 -0.7
4 NO ATL 23.5 +5.4 19 KC DEN 16.7 -1.4
5 MIA CIN 21.9 +3.8 20 JAX MIN 16.3 -1.8
6 BUF SAF 21.6 +3.5 21 PIT WSH 16.2 -1.9
7 SAF BUF 21.1 +3.0 22 DET CHI 15.6 -2.5
8 IND HOU 20.6 +2.4 23 HOU IND 15.5 -2.6
9 NE LAC 20.5 +2.4 24 LAC NE 15.4 -2.7
10 CHI DET 20.5 +2.4 25 PHI GB 15.1 -3.1
11 BAL DAL 19.9 +1.7 26 SEA NYG 15.0 -3.1
12 DEN KC 19.1 +1.0 27 CIN MIA 14.7 -3.4
13 NYG SEA 19.0 +0.9 28 ATL NO 11.6 -6.6
14 LAR ARI 19.0 +0.8 29 ARI LAR 11.6 -6.6
15 TEN CLE 18.2 +0.1 30 WSH PIT 10.3 -7.8
LEAGUE AVERAGE 18.1

Running Back APA

RANK TEAM OPP APA +/- RANK TEAM OPP APA +/-
1 CHI DET 36.2 +14.1 16 BUF SAF 22.5 +0.3
2 IND HOU 32.3 +10.1 17 LV NYJ 21.5 -0.7
3 PHI GB 32.0 +9.9 18 JAX MIN 20.1 -2.1
4 MIN JAX 28.7 +6.5 19 NYG SEA 20.1 -2.1
5 NE LAC 27.8 +5.6 20 TEN CLE 19.4 -2.8
6 NYJ LV 27.1 +4.9 21 MIA CIN 18.9 -3.2
7 CLE TEN 26.7 +4.5 22 DAL BAL 18.9 -3.3
8 BAL DAL 24.9 +2.8 23 GB PHI 18.3 -3.9
9 DEN KC 24.4 +2.2 24 PIT WSH 18.1 -4.1
10 KC DEN 24.3 +2.2 25 LAR ARI 17.8 -4.4
11 SAF BUF 23.6 +1.4 26 DET CHI 15.5 -6.7
12 LAC NE 23.3 +1.2 27 ARI LAR 15.0 -7.2
13 SEA NYG 23.0 +0.8 28 WSH PIT 14.9 -7.3
14 CIN MIA 22.8 +0.6 29 NO ATL 12.8 -9.3
15 HOU IND 22.6 +0.4 30 ATL NO 11.4 -10.7
LEAGUE AVERAGE 22.2

Wide Receiver APA

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RANK TEAM OPP APA +/- RANK TEAM OPP APA +/-
1 LV NYJ 43.8 +11.1 16 WSH PIT 31.1 -1.5
2 MIA CIN 42.7 +10.0 17 SEA NYG 30.6 -2.1
3 BAL DAL 42.6 +9.9 18 LAC NE 30.4 -2.3
4 NO ATL 41.9 +9.2 19 CIN MIA 30.1 -2.6
5 MIN JAX 39.7 +7.0 20 DEN KC 29.8 -2.9
6 CHI DET 38.6 +5.9 21 NE LAC 28.5 -4.1
7 NYG SEA 38.4 +5.7 22 PHI GB 27.8 -4.8
8 CLE TEN 37.7 +5.0 23 HOU IND 27.7 -4.9
9 IND HOU 37.7 +5.0 24 SAF BUF 27.7 -5.0
10 LAR ARI 37.4 +4.7 25 KC DEN 27.4 -5.3
11 BUF SAF 37.1 +4.5 26 ATL NO 26.8 -5.9
12 JAX MIN 34.7 +2.0 27 DAL BAL 25.7 -7.0
13 NYJ LV 32.7 +0.0 28 PIT WSH 24.0 -8.6
14 TEN CLE 31.8 -0.9 29 DET CHI 22.6 -10.1
15 GB PHI 31.3 -1.4 30 ARI LAR 22.1 -10.5
LEAGUE AVERAGE 32.7

Tight End APA

RANK TEAM OPP APA +/- RANK TEAM OPP APA +/-
1 LV NYJ 15.8 +5.2 16 DAL BAL 10.2 -0.4
2 TEN CLE 15.1 +4.5 17 PIT WSH 9.8 -0.8
3 DET CHI 15.0 +4.4 18 SEA NYG 9.8 -0.8
4 NE LAC 14.9 +4.3 19 GB PHI 9.7 -0.9
5 MIA CIN 14.4 +3.8 20 CIN MIA 9.6 -0.9
6 NO ATL 13.5 +2.9 21 CHI DET 9.4 -1.2
7 SAF BUF 13.4 +2.8 22 ARI LAR 8.7 -1.9
8 DEN KC 13.2 +2.6 23 LAR ARI 8.6 -2.0
9 CLE TEN 12.9 +2.3 24 LAC NE 8.0 -2.6
10 BAL DAL 11.9 +1.3 25 HOU IND 7.7 -2.9
11 MIN JAX 11.8 +1.2 26 NYG SEA 7.3 -3.3
12 IND HOU 11.5 +0.9 27 PHI GB 7.1 -3.5
13 BUF SAF 11.0 +0.4 28 ATL NO 6.8 -3.8
14 NYJ LV 10.3 -0.3 29 KC DEN 6.1 -4.5
15 JAX MIN 10.3 -0.3 30 WSH PIT 4.0 -6.6
LEAGUE AVERAGE 10.6

FanDuel Week 13 Sleepers

Quick side note: Weather matters. If you are curious how weather impacts, I covered it with a 15/25/35 rule.

QUARTERBACK

Baker Mayfield $7100 – Mayfield had his first score of 8+ points (18.42) since the Bengals game when he had 30.78. Mayfield had between 14-18 points in four straight games earlier this year, and while high-teens isn’t a millionaire-maker score, it is a small tournament quality option, especially with the savings. Vegas loves this game in points scored, and it’s tough to see easy paths to 3X value at quarterback, but Mayfield is there. Plus, pairing him with Jarvis Landry ($6,000) opens up a ton of flexibility, particularly to load up at running back. (I do like the more obvious Kirk Cousins, FYI.)

OTHER APA BOOSTED QBs

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Derek Carr, Kirk Cousins, Taysom Hill, Josh Allen

RUNNING BACK

Miles Sanders $7200 – No one wants to touch Eagles right now, and it’s understandable. However, as David Montgomery just proved, anyone (and everyone) can run on the Packers. Sanders hasn’t scored double-digits since his first game back from injury, and he hasn’t scored… a touchdown… since the Steelers game. Montgomery just scored 22.8 (and scored a touchdown) on just 11 rushes with five receptions against these Packers. In fact, only the Lions in Week 2 failed to have a running back score at least a dozen points in this matchup.

Damien Harris $5900 – Count me among the many that don’t like risking a Bill Belichick running back. We’ve all been burned. Nevertheless, here we go… Strong, up-the-middle running backs have done well against the Chargers, particularly since Week 7. James Robinson, Philip Lindsay (between the tackles a decent amount despite his size) and Josh Jacobs all scored, plus Devontae Booker in that same game. But even after that, Salvon Ahmed had 85 yards and a touchdown, Frank Gore 61 and a touchdown (La’Mical Perine scored too) and then last week, Devin Singletary and Zack Moss combined to go 20-for-141. Harris has 2-3X upside value at this price, which will help you grab Dalvin Cook (or similar).

OTHER APA BOOSTED RBs

David Montgomery, Jonathan Taylor, Dalvin Cook, Nick Chubb

WIDE RECEIVER

Hunter Renfrow – The Jets can’t stop slot receivers… well, they can’t stop much, but especially slot receivers. And it’s not just big names who spend a good amount of time there like Keenan Allen (16/145/1), but it’s Renfrow-like receivers with Jakobi Meyers (12-for-169) and Cole Beasley (11-for-112). Plus, most are going to be so ticked off with Carr that they don’t touch the Raiders offense. DeVante Parker had a big game last week, which isn’t overall surprising, but he spent his most time yet in the slot (12 snaps, 28%) as the Dolphins found him doing the most damage from there.

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Sterling Shepard – The Seahawks have been playing better and now Colt McCoy is at quarterback for the Giants. That doesn’t hurt Shepard, especially with Darius Slayton less than 100% (and hurt with his deep-game ability now that McCoy is in). Shepard should have plenty of volume in this game, and the Seahawks have allowed plenty to inside receivers. If you’re looking for a double-digit target option to pay off for 8+ receptions and 100+ yards, Shepard is a good bet at this price level.

Michael Thomas Taysom Hill is killing the Saints passing game, and Alvin Kamara of course. There is still a high ceiling with Thomas, as seen in the Falcons matchup just two weeks ago. Thomas had 11/9/104 and can easily repeat that success. Back to Renfrow, he was the leader for the Raiders last week with 9/7/73, and Drew Lock torched the Falcons in Week 9, helping Jerry Jeudy have 14/7/125/1, KJ Hamler 10/6/75/0 and Tim Patrick 9/4/29/1. Okay, the Patrick one is only good because of a touchdown, but Hill can make one person relevant in the passing game, and Thomas is by far the best bet.

OTHER APA BOOSTED WRs

Terry McLaurin, Sterling Shepard, Nelson Agholor, Meyers, Michael Pittman

TIGHT END

Mike Gesicki – Count them. Gesicki has three double-digit scores and just three touchdowns. One of those didn’t even result in a double-digit score, by Ryan Fitzpatrick helps Gesicki, as does the Bengals matchup. Gesicki has five targets in each of the last three games with 40, 43 and 35 yards, which isn’t bad, but we need a touchdown… maybe. On the one hand, the Bengals gave up six touchdowns to tight ends from Weeks 5-7, but they also just let Evan Engram post 9/6/129.

OTHER APA BOOSTED TEs

Darren Waller, Jonnu Smith, T.J. Hockenson

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APA Concerning Matchups

QBs: Kyler Murray, Matt Ryan, Russell Wilson, Carson Wentz

RBs: Todd Gurley, Alvin Kamara, Latavius Murray, Antonio Gibson, Kenyan Drake

WRs: DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk, Lions, Steelers, Amari Cooper (CeeDee Lamb actually good)

TEs: Logan Thomas, Hayden Hurst, Dallas Goedert

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