DFS Sleepers & Blind Spots for Week 13
Week 13 NFL DFS Sleepers
In case you’re new to this/me, this sleeper piece aims for contrarian/GPP players, but more importantly, it focuses on matchups to exploit using APA (Adjusted Points Allowed). APA is a metric that I created years ago, adjusting for the strength of opponent, etc. Obviously, facing Patrick Mahomes every game would inflate the points allowed versus seeing Sam Darnold under center. APA does a quality job at evening out the strength of opponents to give you a true Fantasy points allowed average (+/- compared to positional league average).
As always, catch me @allinkid and keep reading to see my FanDuel DFS sleepers for Week 10.
Running Back APA
Wide Receiver APA
Tight End APA
FanDuel Week 13 Sleepers
Quick side note: Weather matters. If you are curious how weather impacts, I covered it with a 15/25/35 rule.
Baker Mayfield $7100 – Mayfield had his first score of 8+ points (18.42) since the Bengals game when he had 30.78. Mayfield had between 14-18 points in four straight games earlier this year, and while high-teens isn’t a millionaire-maker score, it is a small tournament quality option, especially with the savings. Vegas loves this game in points scored, and it’s tough to see easy paths to 3X value at quarterback, but Mayfield is there. Plus, pairing him with Jarvis Landry ($6,000) opens up a ton of flexibility, particularly to load up at running back. (I do like the more obvious Kirk Cousins, FYI.)
OTHER APA BOOSTED QBs
Derek Carr, Kirk Cousins, Taysom Hill, Josh Allen
Miles Sanders $7200 – No one wants to touch Eagles right now, and it’s understandable. However, as David Montgomery just proved, anyone (and everyone) can run on the Packers. Sanders hasn’t scored double-digits since his first game back from injury, and he hasn’t scored… a touchdown… since the Steelers game. Montgomery just scored 22.8 (and scored a touchdown) on just 11 rushes with five receptions against these Packers. In fact, only the Lions in Week 2 failed to have a running back score at least a dozen points in this matchup.
Damien Harris $5900 – Count me among the many that don’t like risking a Bill Belichick running back. We’ve all been burned. Nevertheless, here we go… Strong, up-the-middle running backs have done well against the Chargers, particularly since Week 7. James Robinson, Philip Lindsay (between the tackles a decent amount despite his size) and Josh Jacobs all scored, plus Devontae Booker in that same game. But even after that, Salvon Ahmed had 85 yards and a touchdown, Frank Gore 61 and a touchdown (La’Mical Perine scored too) and then last week, Devin Singletary and Zack Moss combined to go 20-for-141. Harris has 2-3X upside value at this price, which will help you grab Dalvin Cook (or similar).
OTHER APA BOOSTED RBs
David Montgomery, Jonathan Taylor, Dalvin Cook, Nick Chubb
Hunter Renfrow – The Jets can’t stop slot receivers… well, they can’t stop much, but especially slot receivers. And it’s not just big names who spend a good amount of time there like Keenan Allen (16/145/1), but it’s Renfrow-like receivers with Jakobi Meyers (12-for-169) and Cole Beasley (11-for-112). Plus, most are going to be so ticked off with Carr that they don’t touch the Raiders offense. DeVante Parker had a big game last week, which isn’t overall surprising, but he spent his most time yet in the slot (12 snaps, 28%) as the Dolphins found him doing the most damage from there.
Sterling Shepard – The Seahawks have been playing better and now Colt McCoy is at quarterback for the Giants. That doesn’t hurt Shepard, especially with Darius Slayton less than 100% (and hurt with his deep-game ability now that McCoy is in). Shepard should have plenty of volume in this game, and the Seahawks have allowed plenty to inside receivers. If you’re looking for a double-digit target option to pay off for 8+ receptions and 100+ yards, Shepard is a good bet at this price level.
Michael Thomas – Taysom Hill is killing the Saints passing game, and Alvin Kamara of course. There is still a high ceiling with Thomas, as seen in the Falcons matchup just two weeks ago. Thomas had 11/9/104 and can easily repeat that success. Back to Renfrow, he was the leader for the Raiders last week with 9/7/73, and Drew Lock torched the Falcons in Week 9, helping Jerry Jeudy have 14/7/125/1, KJ Hamler 10/6/75/0 and Tim Patrick 9/4/29/1. Okay, the Patrick one is only good because of a touchdown, but Hill can make one person relevant in the passing game, and Thomas is by far the best bet.
OTHER APA BOOSTED WRs
Terry McLaurin, Sterling Shepard, Nelson Agholor, Meyers, Michael Pittman
Mike Gesicki – Count them. Gesicki has three double-digit scores and just three touchdowns. One of those didn’t even result in a double-digit score, by Ryan Fitzpatrick helps Gesicki, as does the Bengals matchup. Gesicki has five targets in each of the last three games with 40, 43 and 35 yards, which isn’t bad, but we need a touchdown… maybe. On the one hand, the Bengals gave up six touchdowns to tight ends from Weeks 5-7, but they also just let Evan Engram post 9/6/129.
OTHER APA BOOSTED TEs
Darren Waller, Jonnu Smith, T.J. Hockenson
APA Concerning Matchups
QBs: Kyler Murray, Matt Ryan, Russell Wilson, Carson Wentz
RBs: Todd Gurley, Alvin Kamara, Latavius Murray, Antonio Gibson, Kenyan Drake
WRs: DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk, Lions, Steelers, Amari Cooper (CeeDee Lamb actually good)
TEs: Logan Thomas, Hayden Hurst, Dallas Goedert
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