Borg’s DFS Cash Lineup Review for Week 11 (Fantasy Football)
The goal of this article is neither to boast nor wallow in “shoulda, woulda, couldas” but rather give a transparent look at my thought process for the week. Hopefully, this will help DFS & Betting Podcast listeners and DFS Pass subscribers get a deeper window into the ups and downs of playing DFS and help you in your selections each week. On Tuesdays, Betz and I review our cash lineups, and this week we’ll give some common overreactions we see and hear.
For cash, I specifically play 50/50s, Double-Ups, and H2Hs on DraftKings. I’ll share my unfiltered gut reaction, and the thought process behind this lineup construction, and at the bottom, I will post my weekly results including the cash line and H2H record to stay accountable with you.
If you want to go back to the drawing board, we did an overview podcast before the season on DFS Cash Game Strategy + Creating Player Pools. I also published an article on DFS Strategy for Beginners and another entitled: How to Approach Each Position in DFS & Gain an Edge.
Week 11 Cash Lineup
Draft % and cash lines each week will be from DraftKings’ $25 Single-Entry Double-Up with roughly 6,000 entries. This is a slightly elevated price point from the $1, $5, and $10 double-ups and I think gives a solid idea each week of double-up roster percentages.
The Thought Process
Every week I’ll move from where I started on Tuesday to where I landed on a Sunday.
Cash Locks (In My Opinion)
- In our Week 11 DFS Best Plays (which comes out on Saturdays for DFS Pass subscribers only), I shared the pool of players that were basically locked from the beginning of the week.
- I could not fathom ignoring Devin Singletary in cash. If you did, I guess you were trying to get too cute? He was the cover boy of our Best Plays and my locked-in cash play in that article: “That is not a sentence I thought I would be typing in 2023 but when you consider his matchup, his salary, what he did last week, and how popular he will be in Double-Ups and H2Hs, what do you have to gain fading him in cash? That is the kind of question I ask when I look at a player when I’m not exactly jazzed about their talent. The Cardinals are 31st in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs and we saw last week he was fed with 30 carries as the AFC Offensive Player of the Week. “
- Trey McBride also was locked-in and while the result was less than ideal, knowing the field would play him too made it even more of a simple lay-up in cash construction.
- Tyreek Hill ($9300) was in from the beginning of the week. To be honest, it was a bit irresponsible to mentally lock him in without considering projections and the opportunity cost. The upside, the matchup, and the fact I haven’t been able to play Tyreek in weeks for DFS made him too fun to pass up.
My goal in this section is to discuss the pool of players I considered for cash and how I arrived at my final lineup.
- Let’s start at QB where I truly only looked at two options in cash: Kyler Murray ($6100) or Brock Purdy ($5800). Betz and I both had those QBs in our pool as top-2 options but Purdy won out with the 49ers team implied total, a double-digit home favorite, and the cheaper price tag. The field felt the same as he was played by nearly 50% in Double-Ups. There was a slight nervousness when I was behind the cash line in the early window but knowing which chalky players remain in the afternoon portion is key to not late swap irrationally. In other words, I was going to move in the right direction knowing over half the field did not have Purdy. He smashed with 333 yards and three passing TDs.
- With Singletary locked in, a 3RB build was my preferred strategy early in the week. Christian McCaffrey ($9300) was clearly my favorite but as I was building, it became clear that it would be tough to fit in both Tyreek AND CMC without sacrificing at other positions. Jahmyr Gibbs ($7000), Tony Pollard ($6600), Breece Hall ($6400), and Aaron Jones ($6200) were solid options in the $6K range. In fact, on the podcast, I declared how I wanted to play Pollard just as a talking point for DFS and a testament to the fact that we can press refresh on any player. My lineup construction for most of the week included him but Jones was also someone I considered strongly. It was shaping up to be a more balanced build.
- Brian Robinson Jr. ($5800) emerged by Saturday as one of the better points per dollar plays of the week once we received news that Antonio Gibson was declared doubtful. As a near 10-point home favorite, the workload and chance to get into the end zone at under $6K was enticing. He ultimately won out over the more expensive pieces IF I wanted to get up to another elite WR.
- To pair alongside Tyreek, I zeroed in on two of the pricier options: Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8800) and Cooper Kupp ($8100). I knew the Sun God would come with more roster percentage and he had a safer floor in a better game environment. But I circled Kupp early in the week as a great bounce-back candidate with Matthew Stafford returning. Call it stubborn optimism or a chance to get an elite player at a cheaper price tag.
- In order to make my build work, I needed to punt off one WR position. Rondale Moore ($3300) and Kyle Phillips ($3000) were the only ones I considered seriously although I liked Jayden Reed ($4000) the most but I couldn’t get up to that price without sacrificing elsewhere.
- In the middle tier, I was having difficulty identifying WRs with 7+ targets in their projection under $5.5K. Marquise Brown ($5300) was the name we discussed all week but after doing some tape grinding (yep I know), I had a strong conviction to get off Hollywood until he proved it. I shared this on the First Look article and did an entire review of him on the Dynasty Podcast. Rather than betray my takes, I stayed the course even if it was blind faith that my observations would hold water. I wrote emphatically: “The modern NFL seems to be pushing speedsters like Brown out of relevance as 2-High looks become the norm. I know that is a “hand in the dirt” take but with Brown being as popular as he is, it feels like fading is more my style to gain leverage. In other words, what do I gain? What is the opportunity cost? If Brown does not pay off for tourneys (20+ points), it’s a ton. For those counting at home, he has hit that 20+ mark… ZERO TIMES this year. ZERO. “
- Garrett Wilson ($6400), Christian Kirk ($6000), Tank Dell ($5900), and DJ Moore ($5600) were showing up as strong PPR plays but their price points were slightly elevated from Brown. In order to get to one of these guys, I’d have to drop from Amon-Ra to Kupp and Rondale to Kyle Phillips based on what I had already locked in. My final 2v2 came down to Dell + Phillips or the Moore boiis (Rondale & DJ). In hindsight, the safer play would’ve been the Moores but Tank Dell‘s matchup and his PPR prowess made me lean in his direction. He should be in the mid to high $6K range according to his targets per route run.
- I always say wait until the very end to pick your DST. This week was rather difficult as I did not feel like there was a consensus pick the field would go after. The Commanders were the “chase-whoever-is-playing-the-Giants” pick of the week but I did not like how pricey ($3600) they were. The Cowboys ($4100) were actually my DST1 in best plays but there was no chance I could get up there in my build. The Jaguars ($3400) and the Dolphins ($3200) both had upside against rookie QBs but it’s so difficult to pay that price tag. I stuck with a punt option from earlier in the week playing the Packers ($2300) who I believed would cover the spread at home against the Chargers. Their five points were more than enough at that price.
- Here was my final lineup decision where I sided with projections and upside of Kupp over the weighted opportunities and safety of the second lineup.
Mistakes Were Made …
Every week I’ll highlight my biggest mistakes which range from not weighing low-end outcomes to assuming, to not thinking, and ultimately moving away from plays I started with. We’ve all been there… stay water. Don’t try to justify yourself or make things sound better than they were. You made a decision, now deal with it.
- Not having Rondale Moore was lazy. Not because he was some elite play but because at $3,300, I had little to gain from fading. It simply came down to locking onto Kupp and not having enough salary to get up from Kyle Phillips.
- I’ve looked at the Kupp play from a couple of different angles. Obviously, when any player is injured, you get frustrated with the outcome. It is part of the game and the risk of any player. Aaron Jones was another play I loved this week and so many of my GPP lineups went cold after he went out. Kupp’s dropped TD was a dagger but the real knife twist was him coming out in the second half with his helmet on the sideline. Was he coming back in the game?
Each week I’ll post my head-to-head (H2H) win percentage here to give you an idea of what type of week I had. Keep in mind there are varying price points, competition, and players who take my H2Hs in the lobby that have no rhyme or reason. The volume of my H2Hs differs each week due to my feeling of the slate and my weekend activities with my family. Every week I will also post the “cash line” from the $25 Double-Up from DraftKings.
|Week||Cash Line||DK Pts||H2H Win%||Note|
|1||138.14||156.32||100%||Tyreek Goes Bananas|
|2||123.36||105.86||26%||Chase Goes Cold|
|3||166.98||162.68||29%||The Field Goes Wild|
|4||152.92||169.72||92%||AOC & The Studs|
|7||117.00||117.56||53%||Andrews 2 Tuddys|
|10||145.12||160.56||93%||Cowboys DST Dont Matter|
|11||156.52||156.52||41%||Kupp Injury = Hold the Line|
With Kupp out the entire second half, my team somehow held the line thanks to Purdy going over 300, throwing another TD, and inexplicably running for a few yards in the fourth quarter. I was fortunate there was basically no one else that the field had over 16% rostered in the late window besides Purdy. I just kept telling my boys: HOLD! HOLD! HOLD!